Light Snow Coming, Next Week Storm?

Overview-

•Sun this morning will be replaced by increasing clouds by later this morning into the early afternoon

•Light to moderate snow will spread across the region from west to east between 3-5 PM

•Snow will taper off between 10PM-1AM

•Snow accumulations will range between 1-3 inches with some higher elevations seeing 2-5 inches

•Cold surfaces mean that the snow will cover over roadways quickly and slick travel should be expected for this evening

•With snow ending in most cases almost 6-8 hour before the monday morning commute, residual slick travel is expected but the morning commute will dodge the worst of it

•We are continuing to monitor the possibility of a storm during the Wed/Thur time frame, models differ on the exact track of this system

Details-

Sorry for the late update, haven’t been feeling all that great the last 24 hours needed a lot of sleep.

Once we get through this light snow event today, we will turn our attention to the potential for a mid week storm to impact the region. At the moment, most of the weather model guidance supports the idea of a storm along the East coast during this time frame. What the models do not agree on is the specific evolution of this storm and its final track, both of which have major impacts on the forecast for our region. The European model is the most amped up version of the storm, it phases the northern and southern jet stream and sends a rapidly deepening storm up the coast and throws down a moderate to heavy snow event across the interior and rain along the coast. The other models are less amplified and do not phase the storm, therefore it leads to a storm further off the coast with less snow across the region, wish I could tell you which model to trust at this point, but the models have not been performing well this year. I can tell you that this would not be the first time the European model amped up a storm that did not come to fruition. When looking at the current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  forecast, it does appear that the NAO wants to go close to negative around the time of this storm, generally a negative NAO, near negative NAO, or NAO turning negative supports the idea of a more amplified system on the East coast. NAO is the blocking needed to not allow a storm to simply pass out to sea like this over hyped weekend storm just did overnight, it instead forces a deeper trough to develop in the Jet Stream, it slows the storm down so it has time to deepen, and sends it up the coast. If the storm tracks too close to the coast we may see a snow to rain, and back to snow event, if it tracks just offshore, it could be an all snow event, or if the other models are correct and it passes too far off shore we will not be looking at much of anything. We will be monitoring the situation over the next 24-48 hours and will begin to get a better handle on the details as we head into the beginning of the week.

 

HVW Live Radar-

A look at our live radar which can be found from the menu on the website, you can see the snow across Ohio that will be pushing east into the region by this afternoon. Our radar is completely interactive, it can be turned full screen and moved to show any part of the country.

HVW Live Radar

HVW Live Radar

Comments

    • Al Cyone says

      Still no luck (and clicking on the Facebook icon on this page doesn’t seem to work either).

      Could you post the new URL here? Thanks.

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