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Another Hot Day Ahead

When it’s still in that 80’s at 11pm and 70’s at dawn, usually a pretty good indicator of a hot day ahead.  A look at

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Hudson Valley Weather

Hudson Valley Weather

At Hudson Valley Weather we strive for excellence, delivering precise, reliable forecasts tailored to the unique climate of our region. With a team of seasoned forecasters, we empower you with the knowledge to navigate changing weather without the hype

1215pm Thursday, June 20th, 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch possible today for some of the HVW area by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Thunderstorms possible like yesterday.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1340
NWS Storm Prediction Center
Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Areas affected...parts of New England and NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 201526Z - 201730Z

⚠️ Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds from gusts of 50-65 mph, along with isolated hail from 0.75-1.50 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the region, centered from east NY into south ME.

DISCUSSION...Low 70s surface dew points remain pervasive in lower elevations across central/east NY into ME. Robust diabatic heating of this moisture plume will result in moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg becoming common in the next few hours. A pair of MCVs embedded within a zonal mid-level flow regime, the lead one over the Upper St. Lawrence Valley and an upstream one near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron, should aid in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, especially with south extent, and initial mode will predominately be pulse. But some congealing and loosely organized multicell clustering may occur where effective bulk shear holds around 20 kts, ahead of the lead MCV. The most favored corridor appears to be centered on the Champlain Valley into south ME. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts of 50-65 mph producing potentially scattered tree damage appears to be the primary threat, but isolated marginally severe hail will be possible as well.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024
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1215pm Thursday, June 20th, 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch possible today for some of the HVW area by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Thunderstorms possible like yesterday.
:::::::::::
Mesoscale Discussion 1340
NWS Storm Prediction Center 
Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Areas affected...parts of New England and NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 201526Z - 201730Z
⚠️ Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds from gusts of 50-65 mph, along with isolated hail from 0.75-1.50 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the region, centered from east NY into south ME.
DISCUSSION...Low 70s surface dew points remain pervasive in lower elevations across central/east NY into ME. Robust diabatic heating of this moisture plume will result in moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg becoming common in the next few hours. A pair of MCVs embedded within a zonal mid-level flow regime, the lead one over the Upper St. Lawrence Valley and an upstream one near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron, should aid in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, especially with south extent, and initial mode will predominately be pulse. But some congealing and loosely organized multicell clustering may occur where effective bulk shear holds around 20 kts, ahead of the lead MCV. The most favored corridor appears to be centered on the Champlain Valley into south ME. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts of 50-65 mph producing potentially scattered tree damage appears to be the primary threat, but isolated marginally severe hail will be possible as well.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024Image attachment

6 CommentsComment on Facebook

No rain yet but overcast in Hunter and not too hot 12:26

Timing on this??

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Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. For the latest Public Advisory, visit: Hurricanes.gov/#Alberto

In the southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. It has a medium (40 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a (40 percent) chance in the next 7 days.

In the southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a medium (50 percent) chance in the next 7 days.

For the latest information, please visit: Hurricanes.gov
En Español, visite: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOSAT.shtml
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Thursday’s Weather : A Repeat of Wednesday

Thursday will officially make this a heatwave for the Hudson Valley, with 3 consecutive days at or above 90°. These images tell the oppressive story across the valley. The first image represents the high temperatures across the region from Wednesday… generally 90° to 94°. The second image shows the maximum heat index values from Wednesday… anywhere from 95° to 104°.

For our Thursday, expect maps that look exactly like these maps from Wednesday. The Heat Advisory continues to be in effect through Thursday. Clouds mixing with sunshine… hazy, hot & humid, with highs in the mid 90s, and real feel heat index values between 95° and 100°. A few scattered late day T-Storms are possible (roughly a 30% chance)… mainly north of I-84.

We’ll be tracking things through the day. Please follow the same precautions you’ve been observing the past 2 days. Stay hydrated, and take it slow if you’re spending extended time outside. Heat exhaustion can sneak up on you quickly. Have a great Thursday.
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Thursday’s Weather : A Repeat of Wednesday
Thursday will officially make this a heatwave for the Hudson Valley, with 3 consecutive days at or above 90°.  These images tell the oppressive story across the valley.  The first image represents the high temperatures across the region from Wednesday… generally 90° to 94°.  The second image shows the maximum heat index values from Wednesday… anywhere from 95° to 104°. 
For our Thursday, expect maps that look exactly like these maps from Wednesday.  The Heat Advisory continues to be in effect through Thursday.  Clouds mixing with sunshine… hazy, hot & humid, with highs in the mid 90s, and real feel heat index values between 95° and 100°.  A few scattered late day T-Storms are possible (roughly a 30% chance)… mainly north of I-84.
We’ll be tracking things through the day.  Please follow the same precautions you’ve been observing the past 2 days.  Stay hydrated, and take it slow if you’re spending extended time outside.  Heat exhaustion can sneak up on you quickly.  Have a great Thursday.Image attachment

10 CommentsComment on Facebook

Yay hot again and again and again

It's summer folkes ... get over it, it gets HOT!

Will this weekend be a little cooler and less humid?

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