11am Winter Storm Update

So we continue to go through the latest data, and we’re seeing a few things worth discussing.
 
1.  The guidance continues to focus in on the Hudson Valley for frontogenesis snows created by the lift generating from the upper level low passing to our south.  The amounts shown on the map below, are in ADDITION to what is on the ground.  Another 3 to 6… locally as much as 10 inches of snow appears likely.
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2.  The DDT (dreaded dry tongue) or “dry slot” of air in the eastern HV is beginning to disappear from the guidance.  The models are beginning to detect the enhanced snowfall that is rotating in from SE to NW.  The radar over the HV right now looks rather unimpressive, but it is expected to fill in and intensify over the next 2 to 3 hours.  Based on the precip building to our SE in Connecticut… the snowfall in the eastern HV may redevelop earlier than earlier anticipated by some data
 
3.  The heaviest snow is expected over the afternoon hours.  The radar is only beginning to enhance over the HV now… due to the increasing lift in the atmosphere.  The heaviest snowfall rates are likely between 12pm and 9pm this afternoon.
 
We’ll see how things continue to unfold.  An unpredictable day full of some surprises and some disappointments is expected.  Stay warm, stay safe!

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