Saturday Discussion : Watching Sunday Night Snow Threat

Spring has been in the Hudson Valley for about 10 days… but only on the calendar.  The weather has refused to follow suit… holding about 2 to 4 degrees below average.  As we turn the calendar into the month of April, we don’t expect any changes in the pattern.  In fact, we’re watching a chance for a snowy April Fool’s Day joke, that many people won’t find funny.

The Weekend

Looking at the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice to be honest.

We’ll see a good deal of sunshine on Saturday, and temperatures near where we’d expect them to be for this time of year.  It won’t be a beautiful day by most standards… but it will likely feel pretty good to get sunshine and seasonable temperatures across the region.  Anyone with outdoor plans, will be rather happy with what the weather will offer.

Looking to Saturday night into Sunday… a weak frontal boundary will move into the region.  That will bring clouds into the area once again, along with the threat of a few spot rain showers.  The spotty showers will taper off on Sunday morning, and leave us with a chilly breeze for much of Sunday, under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Not a terrible early spring weekend… with Saturday looking better than Sunday.  But as we look toward Sunday night into Monday, we’ll see that winter won’t go quietly into the night.

Wave of Spring Wet Snow Possible…

A weak wave of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley Sunday night and reach the east coast by Monday morning.  Depending on the exact track of the low pressure… we could have a WHITE start to the work week.

We’ve been watching this system for a few days, and the bulk of the snow was focused south of the Hudson Valley.  But as is often the case, these systems begin to trend further north as the event gets closer… and now we are seeing a scenario where at least part of the Hudson Valley sees wet snow for the Monday morning commute.

Looking above at the futurecast radar for 8am Monday morning, a band of snow is possible anywhere from Washington DC, up through the Hudson Valley.  This latest scenario has the snow focused in the southern half of the Hudson Valley, mostly from I-84 on south.  This is quite a sizable shift north in the projected track in recent days… so we’ll have to see if this trend continues, or if the potential track shifts further south once again.

Our concern, is that the track could trend a bit further north than what we’re seeing here.  The current projection would generate a slushy coating to an inch or two across the region from I-84 on south.  But if the storm tracks another 25 to 50 miles north… it would pull a swath of 2 to 4 inches of wet snow into the Hudson Valley, just in time for the Monday morning commute.  So we need to keep focused on this event.

As you know, we’ll be watching it closely… and share any updates with you as they develop.  But for sure… winter just won’t go down without a fight.  And suffice it to say, this won’t be the last time we are talking about snow threats… as the first HALF of April continues to look cold and unsettled.

Friday Outlook

Another gloomy morning across the region as the cold front associates with yesterday rain maker slowly traverses the region. Light rain and drizzle will linger through the morning and will begin to taper off as we reach the early afternoon. Last night I slept next to an open window and enjoyed the sound of the spring peepers, a clearly signal that despite the outlook for the beginning of April, spring is here.

Tomorrow looks like a great day with high pressure building into the region, temps around average and a dry day, unfortunately this will be the best of the weekend days in terms of weather. Another cold front will move through the region late Saturday, it will be accompanied by shower and snow squalls, and much colder air pouring in on a Northwesterly flow.

This will set the stage for a below normal day in terms of temps on Easter Sunday, throw in a brisk NW wind and it will feel even colder. If you have plans for Sunday, don’t forget to factor in the colder and breezy conditions that are expected. Hope everyone has a great end to their week and checks back with us soon!

Gloomy Thursday

Mostly cloudy start to the day as a storm system approaches the region, we will remain dry this morning but precipitation is in route. Rain looks to overspread the region after 3pm from west to east, a look at the short range guidance shows that the precipitation looks to be scattered, with periods of rain impacting the during the overnight.  We remain warmer today into tomorrow morning, but a cold front will pass through the region tomorrow with colder air pouring back into the region by Friday night.

The weekend looks to be breezy and below normal in terms of temps, but with the exception of some rain and snow showers Sat night it also appears dry. Easter Sunday looks to deliver below normal temps combined with some Nw winds, the combination will result in a feeling of early March weather. Looking further head it appears winter will not release its grip on the region. Blocking in place in the North Atlantic will help to keep the NE in a trough pattern, this will in return allow cold air to continue to pour down from Canada. Below normal temps, and even more wintry weather looks possible for the first half of April.

Wednesday Outlook (Icy Spots)

Temps overnight managed to remain above freezing across most of the lower elevations, although you can see from our station in Hurley NY, we got pretty close to an icing event with 33° registering on the graph. A glance at the morning radar indicates that freezing precipitation has persisted across the higher terrain, so slick travel is a definite concern across the Catskills this morning, use caution across Sullivan,Delaware,Western Ulster and Western Greene Counties.

Preciptiation will pull out of the region over the next few hours leaving us with a mostly cloudy but dry day. Our next weather maker will be an all rain event Thursday evening into Thursday night.

 

 

 

Tuesday Morning Outlook

Changes are apon us, high pressure that has controlled our weather is now forecasted to exit the east coast. As the high pressure slides east it will turn our flow from the colder NW to the warmer southern direction. As the warm front approaches the region it will break out some precipitation as well, the airmass is place is a bit dry so precip will like fall as virga but as we head into the late evening and into the overnight the precipitation will begin to reach the ground.

There is still some question on just how cold the valley floor can get tonight and how long the colder air aloft can also hold on. The answers to these questions will determine if precip falls as plain rain or a wintry mix.  It appears quite likely that the higher terrain areas, especially the Catskills will see a period of freezing rain and sleet that will persist through the overnight and into tomorrow AM, travel impacts here are likely. Across the lower elevations, warmer surfaces may air in limiting and dangerous ice accretion, as we head into Thurday morning we will see precip turn to all rain as warmer air finally erodes any remaining stubborn cold air.

If traveling overnight tonight into the early mornings hours especially across the higher terrain or typical colder spots ie sheltered valleys, or hill towns, please be prepared for the potential for icy spots. We will monitor things closely today and see if we are trending on the colder or warmer side of things, as this will help determine if the icy conditions will impacts the entire region or only the upper elevations.

Happy Monday

A cold but beautiful start to the day as high pressure controls our weather through tomorrow. Despite a cold start our March sun will help get temps into the mid 40’s by this afternoon.  Tomorrow will have a similar start, the subtle changes to our weather will begin in the form of our wind direction shifting to a more southerly flow. This will allow warmer air to infiltrate the region by tomorrow afternoon, unfortunately the warm front also has some moisture associated with it. On Tuesday night we will need to keep a close eye on the potential for icy conditions across the region, this will depend heavily on how much of our current cold air mass can stick around as the warmer air surges in above it. Right now the biggest threat for freezing rain exists in the higher terrain, but a period of wintry mix and freezing rain is still possible to the valley floor. We will have more on this in our next update, everyone have a great day!

Saturday Discussion : The Chill Remains

A quiet but cold start to our weekend. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the story of the day, but our northerly flow will keep it quite cold for this time of year. Highs will struggle into the low and mid 40s. So make sure you grab your winter gear, as our cold pattern looks to last into the start of next week.

We’ll have a weak disturbance slide southward from New England overnight and spread some light snow showers in parts of the area before sunrise on Sunday. We are not expecting widespread problems, but something to watch out for in the early morning hours.

Have a nice Saturday afternoon!

Friday Outlook: Chilly but Calm

In the wake of our ‘almost snowstorm’, temperatures really warmed up on Thursday… into the mid and upper 40s… and melted almost everything in just the matter of a few hours.

Today, late winter’s chill will try and hold on for dear life, as we have high clouds filtering our sunshine. Temps will be below normal again today, as highs climb only into the low and mid 40s today.

We are watching a northerly flow try to usher in some slightly cooler temps… as well as a few snow flurries and rain sprinkles. This could briefly dampen the situation across parts of the region, especially the northern HV and Catskills. But in general we look dry and chilly today.

There was some buzz about a Sunday storm in or comments the past few days. We aren’t sure where that started, but there is no storm threat. We could see a few snow or rain showers rotate out of New England, as an ocean storm influences our weather… but there is no storm on the horizon for the next several days.

Have a great Friday!!

Storm Recap : Wildcard Wednesday Nor’easter 3/21/18

This month has featured 4 nor’easters that have impacted the Hudson Valley in one way or another.  Unfortunately or fortunately… depending on your perspective… the end result hasn’t really been representative of the time and effort that went into forecasting the storm.  Case in point… our storm from Wednesday.

When we look at the final statistics… they’re not that impressive.  But when you realize that if you headed about 50 miles south, the resulting impact was incredible for a nor’easter that hit in the 2nd half of March.  You can see it on the map… the areas in Long Island that got 12 to 18 inches of snow.  There were multiple times during the forecasting period, where we thought that those 12 to 18 inch amounts could push all the way into the Hudson Valley… even right up until the last minute.  Check out this NAM model projection, that was generated Tuesday night around 10pm… less than 12 hours before the storm was expected to begin…

Yes, this guidance suggested a MAJOR impact in the Hudson Valley, just hours before the storm was to begin.  So while we were crunching data, and weighing our ideas on what the actual snowfall forecast should be… trying to shrug off information like this, was not so easy to do.  So yes, the Hudson Valley only saw a minor event on average… with our viewers from the lower Hudson Valley (Rockland & Westchester counties) seeing a sizeable impact event, with around 6 to 8 inches in some spots.

When we weigh out the result… against what our forecast was… our forecast actually performed quite well.  Most schools and many businesses closed early or didn’t open at all on Wednesday… despite the fact that the snow never came until after dark.  So it caused much frustration and even some anger across the Hudson Valley, as claims of a ‘bust’ began to ring loud and true.  But our forecast was never for a major impact in the Hudson Valley… and the widespread 2 to 6 inches that we projected over the Mid Hudson Valley actually came true.

So the storm certainly wasn’t what some people expected… probably because the news networks were in a frenzy, talking about the storm that did drop a foot or more on the metropolitan area.  But locally… the storm was yet another ‘near miss’, that had light to moderate impacts on the Hudson Valley.  The clock on winter is ticking… we’ll see how much time is left on the clock, before the final buzzer on the winter season goes off.

Late Wednesday Night Discussion : Finally Snow

For roughly 10 hours… moderate to heavy snow fell from the skies across the Hudson Valley today… only to evaporate in the dry air before reaching the ground. However between 8pm and 11pm… the snow FINALLY began reaching the ground across the Hudson Valley.

2am Radar Loop

You can see on radar that we have light… to locally moderate… snow across the Hudson Valley. The snow is rotating counter clockwise around the coastal low pressure system that has been spinning all day off the east coast. We have reports of 1 to 3 inches of snow across the Mid Hudson Valley, and higher amounts as we push southward into Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties.

THE NEXT FEW HOURS…
Expect the light to moderate snow to continue through 3 or 4am across much of the region, before tapering off before sunrise. When all is said and done, accumulations should be…
– Catskills and Northern Hudson Valley: coating to 1/2 inch
– Mid Hudson Valley (where 2″ to 6″ was forecast): 1 to 4 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (where 6″ to 12″ was forecast): 4 to 10 inches (locally 12″)

After being dry all day, roads are now snow covered and icy in many areas… so be alert that the Thursday AM commute may be a slick one. Winds will also continue to gust out of the NE at 15 to 30mph, so be sure to hold onto your hat when you’re outside.

This storm was advertised by HVW as a major uncertainty. We could have just as easily seen widespread 12 inch totals across the region from this storm, based on the data we were looking at leading up to the storm. Our coverage was thorough and highlighted the sharp cut off that was expected, the chance for a ‘rip off zone’ that ran straight over the middle of the Hudson Valley. There were so many factors with this storm, that we put out our forecast of 2 to 6 inches across the central HV, dand then spent the rest of our time showing you how that 2 to 6 could easily become a dusting to an inch… and how 2 to 6 could easily become 12″+. These complex storm systems require complex explanations & forecasts.
While the vast majority of HVW viewers understand and appreciate this… we’re trying to reach those who have been harshly critical of us today. We hope that as this storm wraps up over the next few hours, it becomes a bit more clear to some critics, just how complex this dynamic system was to forecast.

Thank you for your continued support of HVW