Thursday Discussion : Unsettled SE Flow

Our work week has featured an early taste of summer for most of the region.  Poughkeepsie hit 90° on Tuesday and 82° on Wednesday.  So with a SE flow off the Atlantic Ocean expected on Thursday, expect a lot more cloudiness and much cooler temperatures.

Expect more numerous low clouds the further south you go in the Hudson Valley on Thursday.  There’s a chance that parts of the Catskills could have breaks of sunshine, but that’s about all there will be to look forward to.  SE breezes will keep temperatures held down in the 60s with a kind of raw feel to theair.

Then on Friday, we’ll see some breaks of sunshine likely, but heat and humidity levels will likely jump upward.  Highs should be in the 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s.  That could make for a very sticky feel to our Friday.  An isolated T-Storm can’t be ruled out.  But we’ll have to look closer at that Thursday evening.

Our unsettled weather appears likely to extend into the weekend, but the 5 day forecast covers all of that, which you can find on our main page.  Have a great Thursday!

Tuesday Discussion : The Heat Returns

We’ve been seeing a lot of ups and downs the past few days.  After a few days of cooler temps, with a good deal of clouds… we’ll see temps surge upward once more on Tuesday.

We should see sunshine increasing quickly on Tuesday, with heat building rapidly as well.  Temps will climb into the 80s by noon, and we’ll also see humidity levels rise.  Dew points likely climb into the mid 60s… and by mid afternoon, as our highs reach into the mid and upper 80s… even reaching 90° in a few spots.  With the humidity, those highs could feel like 90°… making it feel roughly 15 degrees above average.  So get ready for a hot Tuesday across the region.  It should also be added that there is a very slight chance (less than 20%) of a pop up afternoon shower or T-shower… mainly in the Catskills.  The odds are very low, but guidance is seeing the heat and humidity possibly adding a little instability to the atmosphere.

As we move through the rest of the week, we should see things cool down just a touch.  Highs on Wednesday likely in the upper 70s under a mix of clouds and sun.  Then as we push into Thursday and Friday, the instability rises once again, and scattered showers are possible, possibly even a rumble of thunder.  This instability could extend into the weekend, potentially giving us a damp Saturday around the region.  But we’ll have to fine tune the details as we get closer.

For now… we hope you stay cool, and have a great Tuesday across the region!

Monday Discussion : Tranquil Memorial Day

We hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day.  While many of us enjoy a BBQ or party with friends and family… please let us not forget the true reason for the holiday.  We live in the greatest country on earth, and that is thanks in large part to the ultimate sacrifice paid by the brave men and women who served this country.  Lets all remember to take a moment out of our day, to give thanks for their service and sacrifice, so that we can live comfortably and safely with our families. We may not be able to repay the debt, but we can honor their memory, and make sure they are never forgotten.
As for the weather… The region has dried out for our outdoor plans on this Memorial Day.  However, the clouds are really holding on, and refusing to allow the sunshine to break through.  The low clouds are holding temperatures down, and most of the Hudson Valley finds their temperatures in the low to mid 60s as of lunch time.
You can see on this satellite image, that the clouds have broken up over western NY, but are being quite stubborn to exit the eastern half of the state.  Guidance continues to suggest that the sunshine should break through before 3pm this afternoon… but we’ll have to wait and see.  If the sun makes an appearance, the temperatures will quickly respond by jumping up into the mid and upper 70s.  But sunshine or clouds… any outdoor events will remain dry.
  **note**  There is a small broken line of thunderstorms that are expected to develop in western NY this afternoon, and push in our direction after 5pm.  The showers and T-storms are expected to fall apart before reaching the Catskills… but a spot shower or rumble of thunder can’t be totally ruled out after 6pm.  The best chance would be in the Catskills.
We hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable afternoon and evening.

Weekend Discussion: Holiday Weekend Weather Update

The HEAT is surely on across the Hudson Valley for our Saturday.  Sunshine is mixing with high, fair weather clouds… and temps are in the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs.  The humidity is not too terrible, with dew points in the mid 50s, making for ‘real feel’ temperatures that are very close to the air temperatures.  But make no mistake… it feels like SUMMER!  Average highs for this time of year are around 74° in Poughkeepsie… so temps are roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average.

So as the ‘unofficial start to summer’ rolls in during this Memorial Day weekend, it appropriately feels like summer.  But that changes on Sunday.

Futurecast Radar: 8pm Saturday – 8pm Sunday

You’ll notice that the simulated radar for the 24 hours from Saturday evening at 8pm, to Sunday evening at 8pm, isn’t overly busy in the Hudson Valley.  Some areas of drizzle might form after midnight, and light rain showers are projected to develop closer to sunrise on Sunday.  The showers look primarily light… and focused on the southern part of the Hudson Valley.  Scattered rain showers seem possible through much of the daylight hours on Sunday… but once again, focused mainly south of I-84.

Temps will also be much cooler on Sunday.  A backdoor cold front (a cold front that originates from New England), will create a NE wind ushering in cooler air.  Instead of upper 80s… it looks like most of the Hudson Valley will spend the day in the 60s, some 20 degrees cooler.  So while Sunday won’t be a washout… skies will be cloudy all day, and many of us will have to dodge areas of light rain showers and drizzle… especially in the morning.

Memorial Day Monday… Looking better and better

As we get closer to the holiday, guidance is looking better and better for anyone with outdoor plans.

Memorial Day likely starts off mostly cloudy with areas of patchy fog… but sunshine should quickly begin to mix in by mid to late morning.  The afternoon looks dry and partly cloudy, with temperatures likely in the mid to upper 70s for highs.  Humidity levels should be relatively in check as well, with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.  So after early fears of a gray and disappointing weather day… Memorial Day is looking better and better as we get closer.

We hope you have an outstanding Memorial Day weekend, whether you’re heading to the beach… going to a BBQ… or just staying home.  Whatever you do, we hope you have a safe and enjoyable weekend!

Friday Discussion : Heating Up for the Holiday Weekend

An excellent summer like start to the unofficial start of summer.  Friday looks to see a good deal of sunshine mixing with a few fair weather clouds from time to time.  The heat will climb into the low and mid 80s during the afternoon, but we’ll see low humidity translate into a hot… but rather comfortable afternoon.

Saturday, the heat and humidity build a little more, and that could lead to a chance of a late day T-Storm in one or two spots…

You can see that the satellite looks pretty good for the afternoon hours on Saturday, but that a few spot T-Showers are likely around the region, so we can’t rule out the isolated afternoon T-storm on Saturday… let’s call it a 20% chance.  Highs on Saturday could crack 90° so make sure you’re ready for a mid summer day on Saturday.  It looks like the showers and thunderstorms will increase Saturday night, and be pretty numerous… something we’ll watch as the weekend approaches.

Sunday looks rather unsettled… but by no means a washout.  A few scattered showers are possible, but clouds look a bit thicker, and likely to keep temperatures pinned in the upper 60s to low 70s for many locations.  Outdoor plans should be OK, but you’ll want to keep an eye on the details, to see if the showers become more or less likely.

Monday doesn’t look too bad either.  We should see some more breaks of sun on Monday, and slightly warmer temperatures.  The humidity could build a bit for Monday, so a stray shower or storm does appear possible.  But outdoor plans on Monday should be OK, but again… check back on the details as we get closer.

So it’s not a ‘picture perfect’ holiday weekend, but anyone with outdoor plans should be in decent shape.  You may have to dodge a shower or two, and maybe experience a brief rain delay, but nothing too ominous seems likely.  We hope everyone has a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend.  Expect the possibility of reduced posts this weekend… but the 24 hour and 5 day forecasts will be updated through the weekend.  Enjoy your Friday, and enjoy your weekend!

Thursday Discussion : Another Beauty

Our Wednesday across the region was a beauty… and as luck would have it, we’ve got another 5 star day lined up for Thursday.  Expect abundant sunshine and blue skies across the Hudson Valley today.  Morning temps in the 50s will climb steadily toward the upper 70s to around 80° for an afternoon high.  A wind out of the northwest will keep the humidity levels low, and dew points in the low 50s.  So our Thursday will feel like a stellar day for sure!

Looking toward the weekend, the heat will build on Friday and Saturday.  We’ll have temps into the mid 80s on both days, with humidity levels rising on Saturday.  There’s a very slight chance (roughly 25%) that a stray thunderstorm could pop up late in the day Saturday.  Otherwise, it’s a mix of clouds and sunshine both days.  By Sunday, we’ll see a lot of extra clouds, along with a chance for scattered showers.  Anyone with outdoor plans will need to plan for the possibility of on and off showers all day.  It should be cooler as well, with an easterly wind, so temps are likely to hold in the low to mid 70s on Sunday and Monday.  By Monday, we’re hopeful that most of the scattered showers and thundershowers will exit the area, but it does look like a stray rain shower can’t be ruled out on Memorial Day Monday.  Anyone with outdoor plans Monday will want to check back with us for better details on whether Monday may turn out mostly dry… or if scattered showers will linger in the region.

We’ll continue to track the details as we get closer, but we’re starting to get a pretty good handle on the weekend’s weather, with Sunday and Monday looking to be a bit more unsettled than Saturday.  For now… enjoy this gorgeous late spring-time weather!  Happy Thursday, Hudson Valley!

Wednesday Discussion : Gorgeous Weather Awaits

Our rainy day Tuesday is in the rear view mirror, and our Wednesday looks bright and warm.  We’ll have morning clouds begin to mix with more and more sunshine as the morning progresses.  By the afternoon hours, we should be partly to mostly sunny across the Hudson Valley.  Temperatures will start the morning in the upper 50s to around 60°… before climbing quickly into the 70s by noon.  Afternoon highs should max out in the mid to upper 70s for most places… possibly creeping toward 80° south of I-84.  Humidity levels should be very comfortable, in the low 50s across the region.

So in short… a warm, partly cloudy day… with low humidity for our Wednesday.  The same is likely for Thursday, before we begin seeing the heat and humidity build a little bit by Friday and Saturday.  That will mean some instability just in time for the weekend, in the form of afternoon scattered thunderstorms being possible on Saturday and Sunday.  As it looks now, a summer like Memorial Day weekend is in store… with temps in the 80s and building humidity levels.  We’ll fine tune the forecast for Sunday and Monday as we get closer.

Have a great Wednesday!

Severe Weather Report : Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Severe weather comes to the Hudson Valley every year, but thankfully events like what we saw on Tuesday are quite rare.  A significant amount of damage was done, likely millions of dollars of damage when all is said and done across the region.  In addition, lives were lost in this event… and our hearts go out to the friends and family of those who were taken by this storm… our thoughts and prayers are with you.

So we are going to try and recap this massive event.  This severe event was so large in size and scope, that the National Weather Service was not able to account for all of the events in our area.  We have allowed for several days to pass, and for additional reports to come in and verify… but still, there are some cases that are not accounted for on this list from the National Weather Service (NWS).  So please understand that this compiled list and map will not be perfect.  We have utilized the NWS database for the date, and removed reports outside of the Hudson Valley in NY.  So below you will find 3 graphics… one for tornado reports, one for hail reports, and one for wind damage reports.  Below those, is a map with the severe reports plotted by location.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Reports: Tuesday 5/15/18

The storm damage map is likely one of the busiest we’ve ever seen over the Hudson Valley, and it doesn’t even encompass everything that happened.  That said, just look at all of the severe weather reports on this map.  In a ‘typical’ severe weather event for our area, we might see 3 or 4 ‘W’s indicating damaging winds over 50mph… 1 or 2 ‘H’s indicating hail of 1 inch in diameter of more… and maybe a ‘T’ indicating a reported tornado if the outbreak was particularly strong.  This map has too many reports to count.  Above the map, you’ll notice 3 graphics where we’ve

4 Confirmed Tornadoes

The National Weather Service confirmed 4 of the 5 tornadoes that were reported.  The Eldred tornado was classified as a severe downburst, with winds up to 95mph.  But there were 4 confirmed tornadoes, and that is very likely the largest tornado outbreak in recorded history of the Hudson Valley.  There were 2 tornado outbreaks with more confirmed tornadoes in New York… on May 31, 1998 (10) and May 31, 2002 (5).  But those outbreaks were not focused in the Hudson Valley, with the 1998 outbreak being focused upstate (Saratoga area had an EF3), and the 2002 outbreak had 3 tornadoes in the Hudson Valley (1 confirmed in Delaware county, 1 unconfirmed in Dutchess county, and 1 unconfirmed in Putnam county).  Prior to the periods discussed above… tornado data in New York is a bit more difficult to authenticate.  So while we are certain that this was the largest outbreak in the Hudson Valley in at least the last 20 years… and are fairly sure it’s the largest confirmed tornado outbreak in the Hudson Valley’s recorded history… we cannot be 100% sure as of this post, that there was not a larger outbreak at some time.

Countless Reports of Hail and Wind Damage

The map is jaw dropping, with roughly 50 reports of wind damage, and roughly 20 reports of hail in excess of 1 inch of diameter… in addition to the 4 confirmed tornadoes and 1 reported tornado that turned out to be downburst… for a total of 75 severe reports in the Hudson Valley.  In comparison, the May 31, 2002 severe weather outbreak produced roughly 5 reports of wind damage, 9 reports of hail, 1 confirmed tornado and 2 unconfirmed tornadoes… for a total of 17 severe reports in the Hudson Valley.  It would take us a considerable amount of time to look at ALL the data on record to be certain, but it stands to reason that the May 15, 2018 severe outbreak was the largest severe weather event on record for our area.

Cases of Unreported Severe Weather Damage

For all the reports that were submitted to the National Weather Service, there were MANY cases of severe weather damage that were not reported.  Likely the most asked about area, is an area near the Tri-county area where Sullivan, Ulster and Orange counties meet… affectively between Pine Bush, Walker Valley, and Bloomingburg.  The primary road that traverses this areas is Burlingham Road.  We have highlighted this area on the severe weather map above, to demonstrate that there are no severe reports that were given to the National Weather Service.

Due to the high inquiry, with no official reports listed, we (HVW) decided to do a brief assessment of the damage in the region, to see if a tornado had possibly touched down in that area.  After a preliminary review, it’s likely that a strong microburst or macroburst affected that area, with wind gusts over 60 to 80mph likely.  There were dozens… maybe hundreds of trees downed in an area of roughly 10 square miles that we informally surveyed.  Almost all of the debris was facing the same direction… as if a giant knocked over the tree from west to east… meaning that straight line winds were almost certainly responsible.

Hopefully someone from the National Weather Service will take a look at the debris, but this particular area faces 2 problems.  The first, is that it is the intersection of 3 counties… and each county is covered by a different NWS office.  It could easily be difficult to decide which NWS office should send a research team.  The second problem for this area, is that no report was made to the National Weather Service by a trained spotter… and thus the NWS may not be aware of the situation.  We’re not sure if there is a certified NWS spotter in that area, but this is surely one of the problems with reporting and analysis of severe weather events… even today, in 2018.  If the reports don’t get made to the appropriate people, then historically speaking, it’s as if the event never happened.  We’re not sure exactly how to fix this problem… but it’s an issue that is surely worth future discussion.

In Closing…

This was a tremendous event, any way you slice it.  From the severity of damage, to the size of the area damaged, to the number of people impacted, to the duration of time that some areas were without utilities.  We expect that additions and corrections will be made to the data and reports as time goes on… simply because of all the number of things that need to be taken into account.  We welcome additional reports and information in the comments section, and we will try to work those items in where necessary.

We have not had time to go through all the historical data.  In fact, we may not even have access to all the historical data.  Even so, when we compare this event, to one of the most severe outbreaks in the last 20 years… this event (as it pertains to the Hudson Valley specifically) has roughly 4 times as many severe weather reports.  For that reason alone, it stands to reason that this was if not THE biggest event on record in the Hudson Valley, it is surely one of the worst ever.  We hope you made it through safe and sound, with as little impact as possible.  But we know that many of our neighbors were not so lucky.  The community has been tremendous thus far, in responding to those in need.  Lets make sure that we continue to do so.  The Hudson Valley is an amazing place… with amazing people.  Thanks for reading…

Sunday Discussion: Better, but Still Unsettled

The sun is trying so hard to break through the clouds today.  But our unsettled pattern just can’t seem to clear out of the area.  As a result, we’ve got a few light rain showers and sprinkles scattered about the region.  On the positive side, temps have risen into the mid 70s… so at least we have a much warmer feel than yesterday.

So for the rest of the day, expect clouds to mix with a few peeks of sunshine.  A spotty rain shower can’t be ruled out, as a weak front moves through the Hudson Valley… shifting our wind out of the NW for the rest of the day.  Temps will be in the mid to upper 70s for most of us, making for decent conditions for outdoor activities.  So hopefully we can salvage part of the weekend.  

We have all the data compiled on our severe weather event from Tuesday… and should have the post finished and published tonight.  Enjoy your afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : What a Washout

Not a whole lot needs to be said after you take a look at the radar…

A soaking rain has settled in, and is in no hurry to exit.  Expect periods of light to moderate rain through the day, with a chilly, raw feel.  Temperatures will be stuck in the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the day… only rising once the rain tapers off late today or this evening.  Then temps will be on the rise through the night… into the low 60s by sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday’s a tricky forecast… looking like clouds mixing with some breaks of sunshine.  It appears likely to be unsettled, but only a slight chance for a stray shower or thundershower during the middle part of the day.  So it seems that most of us may luck out, and end up in the mid to upper 70s, while staying dry.

We’re still working on the severe weather event recap… hopefully we’ll have that in the next day or two.  Until then, have a great Saturday, and stay dry!