Saturday Discussion : The Heat Builds

Friday was quite hot around the Hudson Valley with Poughkeepsie recording a high of 90°.  We’re only going to get hotter in the coming days, and that begins on Saturday.

We’ll see mostly sunny skies and a lot of heat across the region.  The mercury will climb into the low and possibly mid 90s across the Hudson Valley, as we closely watch exactly how hot it gets, in an attempt to fine tune how intense the coming days will be.  The good news, is that the humidity won’t be oppressive on Saturday.  Make no mistake, it won’t be a walk in the park… but it won’t be dangerous across the region.  Real Feel temperatures in the mid 90s, very close to the actual air temperature… will mean that you’ll need to take it slow, and stay well hydrated.  A mid summer day for sure on Saturday.

Sunday, things get dangerous across the Hudson Valley, as the mercury rises into the mid and upper 90s… possibly near 100° in some spots.

It’s the humidity that will be incredibly uncomfortable on Sunday.  Temperatures between 95° and 102°, likely combine with dew points between 70° and 75°.  That will make for a ‘real feel’ heat index of 100° to 115°!

We mentioned that we’re going to be closely watching things on Saturday in an attempt to determine whether the European or American model is likely correct with regard to Sunday.  It’s a brutal day, no matter what… and dangerous at that.  However, it could mean the difference between 105° heat index and 115°.  That’s the difference between very uncomfortable and very dangerous.

As we said yesterday, remember to take use extreme caution:

– Check on seniors and those who may need assistance.
– Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity.
– Drink plenty of fluids, water and sports drinks.  Alcohol and sugar drinks will dehydrate you further.
– Avoid extended exposure to sunshine without shade

These conditions look likely to continue into Monday and Tuesday… possibly not as bad as Sunday, but we will have to keep a close eye on things.  By Wednesday, we may see a boundary drift southward over the Hudson Valley, and that could touch off some strong to severe thunderstorms, as the atmosphere would just be packed with potential.  But we’ll worry about that as we get closer.

For now… be sure to prepare yourself for the heat.  If you don’t take these conditions seriously, heat exhaustion and heat stroke could set in rather quickly.  Stay cool, Hudson Valley!

Friday Discussion : Intense Heat Wave Discussion

After a deluge on Wednesday night that ended Thursday morning, we saw scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  We’ve been quite dry over the last 60 days, so this rainfall was very welcome.  Here’s the rainfall total ending Thursday morning, it doesn’t include the afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms…

But now we turn toward the weekend, and the impending heat wave that is barreling toward the Hudson Valley.  Things start off decent on Friday, with a hot summer day…

Temperatures are surely hot, but not oppressive.  More importantly… the humidity should remain in check on Friday.  So yes, it will be hot… but not oppressive.  Things warm further on Saturday, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s across the Hudson Valley.

Poughkeepsie is projected to reach 95° on this map… so our forecast is a general 90° to 95° across the region.  Once again, humidity levels will rise a touch… but not to oppressive levels.  So Saturday will be hot, but not terribly humid.  You’ll want to take it a bit slow on Saturday, as the heat will surely be on the rise.

Sunday is the day things get oppressive, and potentially dangerous.  We have some concern about ‘exactly’ how high the temperatures get, so we’ll show you the conservative and the aggressive high temperatures for Sunday.  First the European model’s slightly conservative projection…

The European model projects highs in the mid to upper 90s across the valley, with low 90s in the Catskills.  The American GFS model suggests that temperatures could surge even higher than this on Sunday…

Potentially widespread high temperatures between 98° and 103°!?  This would be incredible if it were to come true.  For this reason, we remain skeptical of what would be widespread record high temperatures.  However, with extreme heat like this… we can’t rule it out.

More problematic, are the ‘real feel’ heat index values projected by both the European and American models.

Even if the conservative estimate is correct, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 100° to 110° on Sunday.  If the highs actually climb above 100°, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 105° to 115°!!

These are DANGEROUS conditions, ladies and gentlemen.  Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can set in quickly, due to the high toll these conditions take on the human body.  It is imperative that we take extra precautions on Sunday and into Monday:

  • Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity
  • Drink plenty of fluids (water and electrolytes)
  • Avoid extended periods of exposure to the sun
  • Check on Seniors and Children as well as pets

These conditions are expected to last well into the work week, but beginning Sunday, and lasting into Monday and Tuesday… we could see high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100°, and heat index values between 100° and 115°!  Please begin to plan accordingly.  We will track the heat through the weekend and into the coming week.  Such intense and extended periods of heat will surely put a strain on our electrical grid.  We could experience brown outs as a result of electricity overuse.  Please try to conserve as much energy as you can.  We’ll likely share information from our partners at Central Hudson, as they begin to recommend action for us to take.

A busy week in the middle of summer for us.  Be sure to check back with us for information as we go through the weekend.  Be safe, and have a nice Friday!

Thursday Discussion : Afternoon Instability

After a much needed soaking overnight and early this morning, we’ve seen much of the Hudson Valley dry out as we approach mid day. But while the precipitation has tapered in most places… we have very humid conditions across the region and temperatures in the 70s. That’s going to lead to some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon.
Radar Loop : 10am – 11:22am
This radar loop tells the story fairly well. You’ll notice the main area of rain exiting east, over Connecticut and Massachusetts. In the wake we have an upper level low pressure to our north, that’s rotating and adding instability to the atmosphere. As a result of that added instability, you’ll notice that as of roughly 11:30am, there are some showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop over Sullivan County and the Catskills.
 
As we move through the afternoon, we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and rotate through the Hudson Valley. These scattered downpours and thunderstorms could contain strong wind gusts and lightning. It’s also possible for one or two of these storms to become strong to severe, so we’ll need to be alert this afternoon. Things should begin to dry out around sunset, but the next few hours look quite unsettled and humid.

Wednesday Afternoon Radar Discussion : Showers Approaching

Clouds have covered the skies across the Hudson Valley, as an area of rain showers approaches from the west.

The scattered rain showers will likely hold off until the evening commute… but a few sprinkles or rain showers are possible this afternoon across the region. Temperatures are being held down as a result of the thick clouds… with most of us in the upper 60s to low 70s. We expect periods of rain overnight, with some downpours and thunder possible toward morning on Thursday. But we’ll have more on that a little later. Complete details are on the website or mobile app. Enjoy your afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Gorgeous Weather

The weather for our Tuesday will look much like our weather from Monday… which was near picture perfect.

After a very chilly night Monday night… that saw many areas in the upper 40s for overnight lows, things have warmed nicely for our Tuesday.  Highs around the region right around 80°, but with a very dry air mass in place, it’s a comfortable warmth.  Dew points in the 40s making for a beautiful Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

As we look toward the middle of the week, we’re watching a storm system approach from the west.  Clouds will increase on Wednesday, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible around sunset and into the night.  A batch of heavy rain and thunderstorms is possible as sunrise approaches on Thursday, which could lead to a very soggy start to our Thursday AM commute.

Then… we’re watching a heat wave head our way for the weekend.  A strong Bermuda high will usher in the hottest 3 day stretch of weather this year… and could give us highs in the mid 90s by Sunday, with humidity making it feel like 100°.

So we’ve got a LOT of weather on the map for the next few days.  Thanks for tracking it all with us at HVW.

Monday Discussion : Sun Returns Once Again

After an unsettled weekend, with multiple chances of scattered rain and thunderstorms… things should quiet down to start the work week.

Clouds will mix with increasing sunshine during the morning hours.  NW Wind will usher in drier air across the region, and provide us a less humid start to the work week.  Afternoon highs should reach into the upper 70s, right around 80° in spots.  The nice weather will stick with us through Tuesday and on into Wednesday… before we begin to track a frontal system for late afternoon Wednesday and on into Thursday.

Hope you have a great start to the work week!

Sunday Afternoon Discussion: T-Storms Flaring Up

The heat and humidity are building across the region, and the atmospheric instability is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up on radar.

Regional Radar Loop: 12:50pm – 2:20pm

Temperatures across the Hudson Valley are in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dew points are in the upper 60s in general. That’s providing a lot of fuel for these storms to blossom, and we’re seeing that on the latest radar. Look at how over the last hour and a half, the storms have increased in number and intensity.

These storms could contain heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds as they move from west to east. There is a slight chance of one or two storms becoming severe… but it’s roughly 5% or less that a severe storm occurs within 30 miles of your location. But we can’t completely rule out a damaging wind gust within one of these storms.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Sunday – 6am Monday

They will be hit or miss, and the threat will last through sunset across the region. So for the rest of the day, you’ll want to keep an eye on the radar, as a shower or thunderstorm could certainly play a factor into your afternoon plans. We’ll try to share updates as well. But despite the weather… we hope you have a wonderful afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : Raining on Many Parades

In the Friday Discussion, we outlined the weekend’s weather in a general, broad way.  Now that we’re right on the doorstep of Saturday, we have a better understanding of how things should play out on Saturday.  Unfortunately, for our local graduations, things aren’t looking great.

Futurecast Radar: 11pm Friday to 5pm Saturday

As it now appears… scattered showers develop over the Hudson Valley by sunrise on Saturday.  It appears that heavier showers and even a few downpours could occur through the morning hours, before moving north of the Hudson Valley during the early afternoon hours.  Unfortunately, most of the morning is now looking rainy, with the afternoon likely cloudy, cool and damp… with areas of patchy drizzle and spotty rain showers.

This means that most outdoor graduations could see delays, or find themselves being moved in doors.  If your graduation is “rain or shine”… you’re going to want the umbrella.  Here’s the longer range futurecast radar, that takes us up through Sunday afternoon…

Futurecast Radar: 2pm Saturday through 6pm Sunday

 

This graphic begins at 2pm on Saturday, and you can see that once the heaviest batch of rain has just exited the region by that point.  That leaves us likely left with low clouds, areas of patchy drizzle… and even a spot shower or two.  It seems likely that no widespread organized areas of rain occur through much of the mid afternoon hours, through sunrise on Sunday (although we’ll have to watch a cluster of showers and storms that will likely just miss the Hudson Valley to our south around sunset).  That doesn’t mean it will be nice… quite the contrary, with highs around 70° and a damp feel to the air.  But your outdoor plans may not totally be washed out.

The last 12 frames of the futurecast graphic above are roughly sunrise to sunset on Sunday… you’ll see showers and thunderstorms popping up across the region for Sunday afternoon at the very end of the loop.  So Sunday looks warmer, with breaks of sun, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  So once again on Sunday, outdoor activities will have to dodge a shower or t-storm.

So unfortunately we don’t have great news… but the setup is what it is.  Anyone with plans Saturday morning will need an umbrella, and things should begin to dry out from south to north around mid day in the Hudson Valley.  The afternoon looks cloudy and damp, with temps around 70°, and the threat of patchy drizzle and a stray shower.  We hope that you’re still able to have a wonderful day… in spite of the weather.  Have a great day!

Friday Discussion : Weekend Preview

It’s that time of year.  That weekend in late June, where many of the regional schools have their graduation.  That’s going to mean lots of outdoor parties and events… so the weather is of extra importance to many of us this weekend.  Unfortunately, things are looking less than optimal… so let’s take a look.

Friday

Things are starting out OK, with mostly sunny skies early.  But we’ll have clouds advancing into the region through the day.  Temps will be right near normal… a few degrees on either side of 80°.  Here’s a snapshot of the futurecast radar for 6pm, right around the time many evening ceremonies may be starting…

The map shows lots of high and mid level clouds in the region, which means that breaks of sun will be decreasing toward sunset, but what we don’t see on this image, is rain showers.  So despite the increasing clouds… it looks like we stay dry.  Making for a decent Friday evening.

Saturday

Unfortunately, things go down hill on Saturday.  Let’s start with taking a look at the simulated radar for the day on Saturday…

Futurecast Radar: 5am to 8pm Saturday

Any time we see a setup like this beyond 24 hours, we strongly suggest not focusing on the details.  The reason, is that the details of the timing will likely change.  But for now, the futurecast suggests a period of rain with thunderstorms at sunrise on Saturday across the region.  By late morning… the steady rain showers appear to exit the Hudson Valley… but clouds, spot rain showers and areas of drizzle seem to last through much of the afternoon.

What we’ve seen, many times, is that these weather patterns cause the guidance to struggle with timing and placement of rain showers.  The exact timing of the rain showers may change… but you can see that it’s going to be unsettled for most of the day.  Anyone with outdoor plans for Saturday, will likely have to dodge the threat of rain showers all day.  Temps will also be held down by the clouds and showers… with highs struggling to reach the low 70s in many places.  Here’s the total projected rainfall from sunrise on Saturday thru sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday

Things on Sunday don’t look too much better.  The guidance has periods of light to moderate rain push through the Hudson Valley for much of the day.  The timing of the showers on Sunday, likely won’t be reliable until Saturday evening.  What is more reliable, is the total rainfall projected for the 24 hours from sunrise on Sunday through sunrise on Monday…

This allows us to look at a more generalized period of time… a 24 hour window… instead of trying to focus on an exact timing.  This map suggests that periods of light rain showers are focused on the northern half of the Hudson Valley.  It also suggests that the further south you go, the less rain you might see.   The reason for these assumptions is that we see a general 0.2 to 0.6 inches of rain focused from the I-84 corridor on north… and that once you get south of I-287, the measurable rainfall is near 0.0″.

Now, over the next day or two, the guidance will try to iron out exactly when the rain falls… and where it will fall.  So it’s not worth getting focused on the details of when the rain will fall, and where it will fall.  For instance, your weather app that says “Cloudy at 12pm Saturday” and “Showers at 2pm Saturday”… is unreliable.  If you have plans from 12 to 2pm, you cannot infer that you might be ‘in the clear’.  Because the details could surely change, and shift the rain threat earlier… or later for that matter.

We know this is upsetting for many people with important plans, but it’s worth sharing.  With widespread instability, and no organized widespread area of rain expected… the spotty rain showers are too small and localized to pinpoint their exact timing and location.  So anyone using a weather app may find themselves pulling their hair out, seeing the forecast for Saturday at 12pm change 2 or 3 times on Saturday.

Unfortunately, the best bet at this point, is to plan for the general pattern each day… and that’s unsettled, with the threat of light rain showers, areas of drizzle… and even some localized downpours.  The weekend looks unsettled, Hudson Valley… we’re sorry we don’t have better news.  We’ll try to provide updates through the weekend, to let you know when we think the best chances for rain are.  Thanks for all your support!

Wednesday Discussion : Fading Sun, Evening Shower Threat

After a scorching day on Monday… Tuesday was followed up with a rather warm, sunny summer day.  As we begin our Wednesday… things will start off much the same way Tuesday ended, with sunshine.  But clouds will increase through the day, and by late afternoon… we could see a few scattered showers in the region.

So for the daytime on Wednesday, sunshine fades behind clouds and highs are around 80°.  Then we watch as a disturbance approaches the region from the southwest.  It appears likely to clip the southern Hudson Valley with rain showers by sunset, and those showers could last overnight.  Let’s take a look at the futurecast radar…

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Wednesday through 6am Thursday

You’ll notice that a few spotty showers could reach our area between 4 and 8pm, but they seem very light and very spotty.  Then a more organized batch of rain should approach from the west.  You can see on the futurecast, that the rain area appears likely to focus from the I-84 corridor on south… between 6pm and 6am.

Now any time you have a situation like this, a very minor change in the track of the rain could mean more or less rain across the region.  So everyone should expect the threat for showers… but the odds are highest as you go further south.  Here’s the total projected rainfall…

You’ll notice the bulk of the rain is from I-84 on south… with maybe a few sprinkles near Poughkeepsie and Monticello.  So our northern viewers are likely to stay dry… while our southern viewers could pick up a decent amount of rain.

So expect the threat of rain Wednesday night, with things drying out early on Thursday.  Thursday’s weather looks great, and that leads into the weekend… where things become quite unsettled.  Right now, the weekend looks to see scattered showers and thunderstorms… with some more humid air.  The pattern looks a bit tricky… so check back to see if the details change for this coming weekend.

Happy hump day!