Tuesday Discussion: Unsettled Weather Ahead

As we close out the month of July, we’ve seen a tale of 2 months.  The first half of the month featured heat and humidity… with very little rainfall for most locations.  That resulted in many inquiries about drought conditions, and even worries that wells may begin to dry up.  Over the last week to 10 days, the pattern has flipped 180°, and especially in the last week… any concerns of a drought have been washed away.

A week straight of very unsettled weather, and multiple rounds of rain and downpours… provided the Hudson Valley with a widespread 3 to 6 inches of rain.  Then we finally dried out over the weekend, and had about 48 hours of dry and comfortable weather.

That begins to change once again on Tuesday, as we’ll see a SE flow usher in clouds and unsettled conditions.  Tuesday looks mainly dry, until after dark, where we’ll begin to see the threat for scattered showers and drizzle.  That threat will extend for several days, and likely carry us straight into the weekend.  That means multiple days of warm and muggy conditions, thanks to high dew points around 70°.  The humidity and instability will lead to unpredictable chances for rain showers and even a few thunderstorms.  So making long range plans will be quite difficult, as the exact timing of rain showers will be uncertain beyond 12 to 18 hours.  The best we’ll be able to do for now, is say that scattered showers are possible on any given day.

So you can see, another several days of unsettled weather, and numerous chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms… and possibly another 1 to 3 inches of rain, over 4 to 5 days.

So for anyone with plans through Saturday, you’ll want to watch the details of the forecast closely, because the details will likely change as we go.  Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Afternoon Discussion : Dodging Showers

Clouds have thickened across the Hudson Valley today, as we track a weak coastal storm tries to develop along a stalled boundary to our south.  Originally, this disturbance was expected to stay far enough south, that the clouds would be mixed with lots of sunshine.  As it turns out, a good deal of cloudiness has moved in… and we even have a few showers off to our south and west that may try to push into the Hudson Valley before sunset…

5pm Radar Loop

You can see the shower activity off to the west, that is holding together for now.  That could dampen things near sunset into the Hudson Valley… in the form of a few spotty rain showers.  However, it’s expected to remain mainly dry across our area… with most of what you see on radar dissipating before reaching our area.

Tuesday then looks mainly cloudy, but mainly dry as well… with a spot sprinkle possible.  It’s not until Tuesday night and Wednesday that we will see increasing scattered showers and thundershowers across the region.  We’ll have more details tonight, as we look at what the next few days have in store for us.

Have a nice evening!

Friday Discussion : Late Day and Evening Storms

Our Friday is looking quite nice and summer-like for the most part.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies for the first half of the day, with some increasing summer heat.  A SW flow will help pull heat and humidity into the Hudson Valley, bringing our temps into the mid and upper 80s for most of the region… and with dew points between 65° and 70°, it will feel like near 90° in parts of the valley Friday afternoon.

But we anticipate a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day, just off to our west.  Those storms will move eastward toward evening… and could bring an unsettled evening commute for the Hudson Valley.  We’ll have to watch the timing, but scattered T-Storms could be possible, just in time for the 4pm to 7pm evening commute.  Scattered showers will then be with us through midnight, before clearing out by sunrise on Saturday.

We’ll try to share updates on social media, as the storms begin to develop.  Or you can track the storms here, on our website.  Have a nice Friday everyone!

Wednesday Evening Discussion: Flood Concerns Growing

We’re growing increasingly concerned about the potential for flash flooding across the Hudson Valley, as we see a band of moderate to heavy rain setting up across the central Hudson Valley… with a lot more rain beginning to build to our south.
Current Radar Loop: 3:30pm – 4:40pm
First, our immediate concern is the band of rainfall that is ‘training’ over central Orange County. ‘Training’ is a weather term used to describe a band of precipitation that continues to move over the same area, creating an extended period of heavy rainfall, and increasing the potential for flash flooding. We’re seeing that occur roughly just west of I-87, from near Tuxedo, and running all the way up to Newburgh. This band is moving NNE, and basically running over the same area. If this continues for much longer, we could see extreme rainfall amounts, and the potential for major flooding. If you are in this area, please pay careful attention to local advisories, and remember… “TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.” If you do not know how deep water is on roadways, do not attempt to cross it.
Looking further south, you can see the radar beginning to fill in over NJ. This is projected to continue, and that rain is moving our way. Guidance suggests that the rainfall rates will increase over a large portion of the Hudson Valley tonight, and that means the concerns for Flash Flooding will also increase over a larger area.
Futurecast Radar: 2pm Wed – 8am Thu
We will be tracking the situation this evening, so please check for additional updates as the evening progresses. Be safe this evening, Hudson Valley.

Wednesday Discussion : Unsettled Pattern Continues

A strong upper level low over the Ohio Valley has given us multiple days of sub tropical weather in the Hudson Valley.  A persistent SE flow has ushered in abundant moisture, and deposited it all over the region.

As much rain as we’ve seen in the valley, look at how much rain has fallen near Hershey, PA (at the bottom left of the image).  There, locally 8″+ has fallen in the past few days, and that’s led to images of flooding coming from Hershey Park.

Hopefully, we’ll see manageable amounts of rain in the next 24 to 48 hours, and avoid any flash flooding concerns.  But we need to be on guard, because as you can see, the futurecast radar over the next 24 hours…

Futurecast Radar : 8am Wednesday to 8am Thursday

It looks like the worst will be off to our west once more, just as it has through the early week.  However, this pattern is unpredictable, and it’s possible the heavier showers could push east, over the Hudson Valley.  We’ll simply have to monitor the situation.  Either way… prepare for more unsettled weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Instability Continues

Our strong southeast flow has settled in, and left us with a rather tropical feel.  Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are combining with dew points above 70°.  This is leaving us with high humidity and instability.

Futurecast Radar : 2am to 11am Monday

You can see that there are no widespread disturbances to track across the Hudson Valley and northeast.  Instead, a persistent flow off the Atlantic Ocean will provide an abundance of moisture, and high humidity.  This instability will result in waves of scattered showers and downpours.  These scattered showers will be hard to predict in terms of timing and amount of rain.

On Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies, with periods of on and off rain showers and downpours.  Highs on Monday in the upper 70s to near 80°… but with high humidity, expect it to feel hotter and more humid.

We will see this pattern continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.  Timing the dry periods against the rainy periods, will be a tricky task.  We will try to do so in the 24 hour forecast and 5 day.  Please check there for our latest ideas.  Stay cool, and try to have a nice Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Unsettled Pattern Sets In

After the soaking rain from last night… we are now settling into the pattern that will be with us for the next several days.  What you see when you look outside, get used to it… this is going to be the story for the next several days.

For our Sunday and Monday, expect mainly cloudy skies with high levels of humidity.  We’ll see varying rates of rain showers over the next 24 to 36 hours.  At times, the rain will taper off entirely.  At other times, there will be periods of a steady light drizzle.  Sometimes, we’ll see a steady light rain fall.  While at other times, we’ll see heavy downpours.  These conditions will vary randomly throughout the next 2 days, with considerable unpredictability.

Temperatures will be fairly steady as well.  Generally, expect temperatures in the low to mid 70s.  But the high levels of humidity won’t allow for those 70s to feel comfortable.  We’ll have a rather muggy, sticky feel to the air… and any sunshine that breaks through will only serve to increase the humidity and heat.

These conditions will likely stick with us into Thursday or Friday, when the front finally pushes through from the northwest.  That will once again bring us lower humidity levels for next weekend.  But it’s going to be slow to get to those conditions.  The good news, is we will gradually erode any drought concerns from the region in the next 5 to 7 days.

So lets make the best of this change in weather pattern.  We hope everyone has a great end to the weekend, and a great start to the work week!

Saturday Discussion : Coastal Storm Rain and Wind

Saturday is our final beautiful weather day… before some major changes swing into the Hudson Valley.

The jet stream shows the strong upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes.  This is a feature more typical of the winter season, not the middle of summer.  With a strong upper level high pressure north of New England (indicated by the orange colors), the upper level low pressure will stall out over the Great Lakes, and that will translate into multiple days of unsettled weather for the Hudson Valley area.

The stormy weather begins Saturday night, as a coastal storm will develop near the Virginia coast on Saturday.  Because the jet stream buckles so far inland, the coastal storm will be forced inland… into Pennsylvania.

Notice on this simulation, how far west the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms are.  The Hudson Valley will see rain for sure… but earlier in the week there was discussion about 2 or 3 inches of rain for our area.  That now appears likely to occur in central PA, not the Hudson Valley.  Here’s a simulated radar for the overnight, and you can see this play out.

Futurecast Radar : 11am Saturday – 5am Sunday

The rain stays mainly to the SW of the Hudson Valley until well after sunset on Saturday.  A few showers push into the Hudson Valley before midnight, but the heavy showers and thundershowers appear likely to hold off until near or after midnight.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue to be scattered around the region through sunrise on Sunday as well… keeping us unsettled for much of the day.  Total rainfall amounts by midnight Sunday night, look to range between 0.5 and 1.5 inches across our area…

So while we are likely to get a good bit of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours… the very heavy, potentially flooding rains, should remain out of our area.  Regardless, we’ll continue to monitor the situation.

Powerful Winds

In addition to the rain potential, we have some concerns about strong winds… and some potentially damaging gusts (especially in the higher elevations)

With the center of low pressure moving so far inland, we’ll see some very strong winds moving well inland as well.  Sustained winds Saturday night will be 10 to 20mph, with gusts over 30mph at times.  Indications are that as you go higher in elevation, gusts could be as high as 50mph.  We’ll have to keep our eye on the threat of damaging wind gusts… as the combination of soaking rain and strong winds could result in some down trees, and maybe a few power outages.  We don’t think this is a widespread event in terms of power outages… but something to certainly be aware of.

So a busy next 48 hours for us at Hudson Valley Weather.  We’ll keep you informed with updates as we get into the storm tonight, and into Sunday morning.  It does appear that the steady rain tapers off during the morning on Sunday.  That should leave us with mostly cloudy skies, warm and humid conditions.  That in turn… will lead to an elevated threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  A scenario that will repeat over and over through the week… from Sunday, straight through Thursday or Friday.

Check back for updates as we get closer.  Thank you for continuing to support HVW.

Friday Discussion: One More Beautiful Day

Our gorgeous weather pattern will hold for one more day, before we begin to transition to a very unsettled and humid weather pattern over this weekend.

There’s not much to say about our recent weather, besides gorgeous.  Now, as we move into Saturday, we’ll watch a strong upper level system over the Great Lakes begin to generate a strong southerly flow into the Hudson Valley.  This strong flow will cause a coastal low pressure system to develop (much like a winter nor’easter).  This low pressure will need to be watched closely, because it’s track is critical to whether we see 1 to 2 inches of rain on Saturday night and Sunday… or if we will see lighter rainfall amounts. 

So that will keep us busy, determining just how wet our weekend will be.  Once the low pressure passes to our north… the Hudson Valley will remain unsettled and humid, with a strong SE flow.  The upper level low in the Great Lakes will take its time, and keep our pattern unsettled and stormy well into next week.  Anyone concerned about drought in the Hudson Valley… should begin to see those concerns washed away over the next 7 days.

For Friday… try to enjoy the beautiful weather!  It’s going to be a gorgeous afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Strong Storms with Much Needed Rain

The heat and humidity comes to a head on Tuesday, as the hot summer temperatures and very moist atmosphere clash with a strong cold front.  The result will be the development of showers and thunderstorms from mid day on… and some of those storms could become severe…

The day should start with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  The big question mark in terms of severe threat… is how much sunshine we see across the region during the morning.  The more sunshine we see… the warmer and more humid conditions will be… and the more fuel we will have for the afternoon thunderstorms to fire up.

So the clouds mixing with breaks of sun should last until roughly mid day… before we begin to see the T-Storms really build from north to south.

Futurecast Radar 12am – 6pm

You can see on the simulation, that the storms really begin to blossom after 12pm just north of the Hudson Valley, and quickly sink southward into the Hudson Valley between 12 and 3pm, from north to south.  Depending on how much atmospheric instability is generated… these storms could become severe in spots.

Most of us will see the potential for heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts… possibly even some small hail.  A few of us could see damaging wind gusts over 60mph, but as we showed in the first graphic, the odds are roughly 5% to 15% for most of us seeing severe wind gusts.  So while most of us should not see severe T-storms… many of us will see a threat of heavy rain downpours, T-storms, and gusty winds.  But since we can’t pinpoint who will see the severe threat… we all should remain on guard for the duration of the afternoon hours.

Conditions will gradually improve near and after sunset from north to south… and that will also include an end to the high humidity levels.  Expect much cooler, and less humid conditions by Tuesday night and Wednesday.  We’ll try to have updates during the storms on Tuesday, mostly on social media.  But we’ll also have our radar tools on the website and mobile app to help keep you ahead of the action.

Have a great Tuesday!