Friday Afternoon Update: Soggy Further South

The stalled front over the Mid Atlantic is causing headaches for the Hudson Valley. 

A batch of light rain has been gradually drifting eastward this morning and early afternoon… and most everyone from I-84 on south is contending with light rain showers.  As you go north, it dries out… but this area of light rain is not moving all that quickly… so everyone from I-84 on south can expect a soggy Friday Afternoon.

Wednesday Discussion : Sweltering Heat and Humidity

Tuesday we saw the heat and humidity really surge across the region.  Poughkeepsie climbed all the way up to a high temperature of 93°, and with the humidity factored in… it felt like roughly 100° at times.  Those conditions will be with us once again on Wednesday…

Sunshine will mix with clouds, as we once again see the heat produce high temperatures in the mid 90s.  Factor in the humidity, and it will feel like 100° once again.  Make sure to take frequent breaks from the heat, and stay hydrated properly with plenty of water.  This isn’t the worst humidity and heat we’ve seen this summer… but it’s certainly a reminder that summer is still not going down without a fight.

We will watch a band of thunderstorms weaken before reaching the Hudson Valley late on Wednesday..

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Wednesday to midnight

You see on the simulation, that the line of storms fall apart after dark Wednesday night.  It’s possible that the Catskills and norther HV could see a shower or thunderstorm around sunset, we’ll have to keep an eye on that.  But from there, Thursday we’ll see the winds shift, and gradually begin to lower humidity, under a mix of clouds and sun.  It’s looking like Thursday will see a diminishing threat of severe weather… with instead heat and humidity gradually easing as the day progresses.

Once again, the weekend is looking rather unsettled for the moment.  A stationary front is likely to stall out over the region Friday and into Saturday, bringing with it… the potential for clouds, cooler conditions, and maybe a shower or two.  Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Heat Wave Builds

After a beautiful and dry weekend… our first in recent memory… we’ll begin to see the heat and humidity increase across the Hudson Valley once again.

Winds will be out of the southwest on Monday, which as we know, will allow the heat to build and the humidity levels to rise.  We’ll see mostly sunny skies to go along with our rising heat and humidity on Monday.  Afternoon highs should climb toward 90°, with dew points into the mid and upper 60s.  That will make for Heat index values into the low 90s.  A reminder that despite the beautiful weather of late… that summer is not over.

The heat and humidity will carry on with us on Tuesday and Wednesday…

With projected high temperatures between 90° and 95° on Tuesday and Wednesday, the humidity levels will make it feel like nearly 100° in parts of the Hudson Valley.  So we’re staring another heatwave in the face as we move through the first half of the week.  We may see some relief for the tail end of the work week, but we’ll have to work on the details as we get closer.  You can check the HVW 5 Day Forecast for our latest ideas.

Have a great start to the work week!

Hurricane Lane Update: Hawaii Flash Flood Concerns

Hurricane Lane is looming just offshore of Hawaii as of 8pm Friday night, but the damage is already being done…

The storm has weakened considerably over the last 24 hours, due to the strong shear that usually protects Hawaii from intense tropical storms.  So the winds have decreased from the category 5 status of 160mph just a few days ago.  Lane is now a category 1 storm, at 85mph, and it will continue to weaken as the upper level wind shear pulls the system apart.  Here’s a graphic that shows Hurricane Lane’s weakening over the last 3 days, and the expected weakening over the next 3 days…

GFS Surface Winds and Pressure: Wednesday 8/22 – Tuesday 8/28

You can see that just a couple days ago, Hurricane Lane was an intense storm with winds of 160mph, and pressure under 950mb… but as it approaches Hawaii, it rapidly weakens, due to the strong winds aloft over Hawaii.  So while Hawaii is under Hurricane Watches and Warnings… with the exception of the mountainous areas (where hurricane force wind gusts are likely)… most of Hawaii will be spared hurricane force winds.

But winds were never the major concern for Hawaii.  The flooding rains have been the primary threat, and they are causing devastating flash floods across portions of the state.  Several inches of rain have fallen already, and over the next couple days, another half foot of rain is possible across the state, with 1 to 2 additional feet of rain possible in the mountains!

The result are images that are simply astounding, with raging flood waters coming down mountainsides, and putting communities under feet of flood waters.  The storm will fall apart between now and Monday, before its remnants slowly drift off to the west.  But by that point, we anticipate some catastrophic damage to portions of Hawaii.

For up to date coverage on this system, you can likely tune into The Weather Channel, or Accuweather on TV, where they have correspondents on site, and video footage of the storm system.  Our thoughts are with the residents of Hawaii, as we hope the worst of the flooding conditions do not come to pass.

Thursday Discussion : Walking on Sunshine

We’ve turned the corner, Hudson Valley.  With the passage of the most recent cold front, we’ve seen the humidity drop substantially… and temperatures fall to slightly below average… as we settle in with a couple days of a comfortable, Canadian air mass.

We’ll see mostly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday… with low humidity and high temperatures falling a couple degrees short of 80°.  The average high for this time of year, is in the low 80s, so we should be a couple degrees below that.  But with the low humidity included in the story, it’s going to feel relatively outstanding.

A few days of beautiful weather, should give our super soggy ground a chance to dry out just a bit.  This could be a big help in the coming weeks and months, hopefully helping limit our threat for flooding across the region.  So enjoy a few days of beautiful weather… before we see the heat and humidity build again over the weekend, and into the beginning of next week.

Happy Thursday!

Sunday Discussion : Fighting a Battle with Clouds

The front has passed, and a much more crisp… comfortable air mass has settled in.  Dew points fell comfortably for the first time in what feels like weeks, and the humidity… finally has broken.  The question for Sunday will be how much low level moisture can come into play, to create what looks likely to be a mostly cloudy day on Sunday.

Guidance suggests that some moisture could sneak up the valley, and present the Hudson Valley with stubborn low clouds and even areas of patchy drizzle for the lower Hudson Valley.  This would certainly put a damper on Sunday outdoor activities… not because of rain and rainfall amounts (this is by no means a washout for anyone)… but because of a stubborn gray dampness that could affect parts of the region.

We’ll have to see how this plays out, because guidance has been quite unsure about the details… and it would not surprise us in the least, if we saw a good deal of sunshine in many parts of the Hudson Valley on Sunday.  So prepare for the threat of clouds through much of the day… but cross your fingers for more sunshine than projected, and a positive end to the weekend.  Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s for most of the region… and humidity will be quite comfortable.  So even if the sun is a stranger on Sunday… at least it will feel much more pleasant.

Have a great Sunday!

Saturday Discussion: Humidity Holds

We hope everyone made out ok after last nights storms, this morning we are seeing a few areas of rain and scattered downpours, but the bulk of the action has pushed out of the region. Unfortunately we are not done with the unsettled weather, it’s appears that passing showers and occasional pop up storm will be possible through the morning and into the early afternoon. By mid afternoon into this evening a more organized line of storms looks to propagate through the region from NW to SE. This will bring a new threat of storms with heavy rain,gusty wind and frequent lightning. 

The good news- This line of storms will be ahead of an incoming cold front, one that will leave us in a NW flow and drying pattern for the remainder of the weekend. Looking ahead to next week, it looks like a few days of highs in the 70’s and low 80’s and lows in the 60’s and 50’s. So we must battle through another day in the rain forest, but the incoming cold front will usher in one of the more refreshing air masses in the last few months. Hang Tight.

Friday Afternoon T-Storm Discussion

A hot summer pattern can bring with it the threat for T-Storms… and this afternoon, that’s what we’ll see.

The entire Hudson Valley is in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather, where damaging wind gusts over 60mph are possible, as well as large hail, and possibly even a stray tornado.  There is a roughly 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 30 miles of your location… and a 2% chance of a tornado spinning up.  Here’s the simulated radar for the event:

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Friday – 6am Saturday

We could see a few pop up T-storms between 3pm and 8pm on Friday… those could be locally severe, with gusts over 60mph possible.  But a line of storms will push in between 7pm and 11pm from west to east… so make sure you’re on your guard this afternoon and evening.

Thursday Discussion : Hot Summer Daze

After days… and weeks of rainfall, Thursday will be day number 2 of tranquil, summer weather.

A good amount of sunshine and hazy blue skies.  Temps will push near 90°, and with dew points in the 60s, it will feel slightly hotter than that.  The good news, is that there will be no rain on Thursday.  That… we’ll save for Friday.  Here’s Friday’s simulated radar from 12pm to 12am during the afternoon and evening

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Friday to 12am Saturday

You can see a fairly potent line of thunderstorms develops during the mid to late afternoon on Friday.  So we’ll have to watch for the potential for strong to severe t-storms… with the potential for flash flooding where excessive rainfall occurs.

Saturday we’ll watch the back end of the front pull through… and with it we could see some scattered showers during the morning on Saturday.  But conditions should improve and dry out as the day progresses on Saturday.  That means anyone with outdoor plans, should be in relatively good shape for Saturday afternoon.  But we’ll work on the details as we get closer.

Have a great Thursday!

The Soggy Summer of 2018 – Mid August Analysis

Summer 2018 started out like your typical summer.  May saw slightly below average rainfall, and the month of June was right near normal.  Then an extended heat wave really dried the region out for the first 2 weeks of July… and then everything changed.  We saw a series of upper level low pressure systems get cut off over the northeast.  The result was a persistent SE flow off the Atlantic, and day after day of rainfall… heavy at times.  This has left parts of the northeast under water, with millions of dollars of flood damage.  Hershey Park was left partly under water, a car dealership in NJ saw half its inventory float away, and the issues continue to mount around the region.

So let’s take a look at the rainfall around the Hudson Valley over the last month or two.  We’ll start with the rainfall totals for this past Saturday into Sunday, where we saw a good deal of rain on Saturday with the arrival of the latest upper level low pressure system…

You’ll notice that even on Saturday, parts of the Hudson Valley saw upwards of 2 inches of rain.  Which could have led to some localized flash flooding… but it looks like most areas escaped unscathed in terms of flooding concerns this weekend.  We don’t yet have the stats for Monday’s rain… but surely it will only add to the totals you see above.

But when we step back and take a look at the month of August as a whole, through the 12th… just look at how wet it’s been!

The average monthly rainfall in Poughkeepsie is about 4.2 inches.  So the average rainfall for the first 12 days of the month is roughly 1.6 inches of rain.  What the region has ACTUALLY seen in those first 12 days, is anywhere from 2 to 4 times the average!  Poughkeepsie has seen 5.14 inches of rain so far in August… over 3 times the average so far in August.  Widespread 2 to 6 inch totals have been observed across the Hudson Valley… with some localized areas near the Tappan Zee Bridge nearing 8 inches!  As you head up into the Catskills, you’re looking at a general 4 to 6 inches of rain… mostly due to elevation enhanced rainfall totals.

But if you REALLY want to be in awe… check out the last 30 days of rainfall in the Hudson Valley…

Just a complete deluge of rainfall across a very large area over the last 30 days.  For a region where the average 30 day rainfall is somewhere around 4.4 inches… Poughkeepsie has seen 11.87 inches of rain!  And unlike many summer rainfalls, that is not an isolated amount.  Look at the widespread area of 10 to 15 inches of rain, represented by the bright purple colors.  That’s roughly 3 times the average rainfall over a 30 day period… enough to cause widespread flooding concerns.  Ultimately, it’s been so wet over the past 30 days… that any new rainfall immediately causes flood concerns to rise.  The ground is completely saturated across the region… so we really could use a break from the rainfall.

Sadly, it doesn’t seem to be in the cards.  Projections have additional dips in the jet stream over the eastern US, which will result in multiple chances of rain.

You can see, that the unsettled conditions don’t appear likely to go away any time soon.  We do expect a break for the middle of the week, but multiple fronts are projected to push through the region over the next 10 days… and those could bring additional rain with them.  The concern will be for heavy downpours, where heavy rainfall amounts occur in short periods of time.  That’s where the greatest threat for Flash Flooding will occur.  We’ll have to monitor the situation closely as we move forward.

As wet as this summer has been so far, it’s not unprecedented in the Hudson Valley… not by a long shot.  In 2011, in the matter of 10 days, we saw Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee drop 7.1 and 5.6 inches respectively in Poughkeepsie… for a combined 12.7 inches in just 10 days!  When we look at the 2 month period, we saw a combined 60 day rainfall of 20.73 inches for the month of August and September, which is roughly a FOOT above average!  So while this summer has certainly been soggy… it’s not unheard of.

Hopefully we can get some dry weather to move in over the coming week or two.  But if guidance is detecting the pattern correctly… it looks like there will be more rain in the offing, over the remainder of August.  Thanks for reading!