With two blustery and cold days lined up for Wednesday and Thursday, we want to focus on the potential for a significant coastal development as we reach the weekend. The upper level jet stream pattern at 500mb paints an ominous picture for the development of a coastal storm along the Mid Atlantic coast…
A large, elongated area of upper level low pressure extends across the eastern half of the United States. Rather than a focused area of upper level low pressure, there are likely to be multiple areas of upper level low pressure (as indicated on the graphic). The significance of this, is important… in terms of how intense of a coastal storm we are likely to see. If the area of low pressure were deeper and more focused, we could be talking about a major nor’easter… and possibly Oct-Snowber 2018.
Instead… we’re looking at one… possibly 2 notable coastal storms in a matter of 3 or 4 days…
The first storm likely develops Friday night or early Saturday off the coast of Virginia. It will likely hug the coast, and move northward… spreading a cold rain across the Hudson Valley and northeast… likely late Friday night into Saturday. The winds with this system are likely to be quite strong out of the NE, gusting over 25mph at times. Rainfall amounts over 1 inch are possible, depending on the speed and track of the system… something that will need to be ironed out as we get closer.
This storm likely falls apart on Sunday, as it storms itself out over the Great Lakes… we’ll have to see how it unfolds. But what is intriguing, is a 2nd area of low pressure could develop along the Mid Atlantic Coast near Virginia on Monday or Tuesday. This would be in response to the 2nd area of upper level low pressure rolling through the eastern US trough. So we’ll have to watch for a 2nd round of rain and wind early next week… possibly Tuesday.
If this were the middle of winter, we’d likely be talking about 1… if not 2 significant snow events in the next 7 days. However, it is only late October… and we’re just not there yet. This is good news for the winter weather haters… as we’ll have some raw and windy weather to contend with, instead of winter weather. But rest east, winter weather lovers… your time will come. The winter season is coming, all in due time.
We’ve had MANY questions regarding our winter outlook for the 18-19 season. We thank you for your patience and understanding, as we’ve had a very full plate over the last month or so, and the outlook is still in the process of being put together. But we’ll have it out soon, and you’ll soon be able to see how we think this winter will shake out, as the days get shorter and shorter. Keep an eye out for more updates and information.
Have a great Wednesday!