Friday Discussion : Cold End to the Week and Month

The month of November has seen us have one of the faster starts to winter in recent years.  After starting out with an above average first week.  The rest of the month has seen us fall into the freezer.  With the coldest Thanksgiving on record, helping us break other daily records as well.  So as we end the work week… and see high temperatures fight to reach 40°, it’s not much of a surprise.

Mainly cloudy skies for our Friday, with scattered snow showers and flurries possible during the middle part of the day.  Nothing that will amount to more than a dusting in a few spots… but most of us will just see a flake or two fall around mid day.  Highs will struggle to reach 40°, with many of us holding in the upper 30s for highs… nearly 10 degrees below average.

The weather on everyone’s mind is Saturday’s rain…

Saturday will be cloudy and cold… with temps once again holding in the upper 30s for most of us.  The rain will approach from the SW during the day, but likely arrives after sunset.  Guidance is a bit uncertain about the precise timing, and intensity of the front edge of the rain showers.  That means it could start slightly later, and be very spotty at first.  This gives hope to some who have evening outdoor plans and tree-lighting ceremonies on Saturday night.  It’s possible that the steady rain showers hold off until around or shortly after 9pm… but we’re going with a general 7pm to 10pm start time on the showers.

The rain will be with us through the night, and taper off early on Sunday morning.  At the end of the event, another 0.25 inches to 1.0 inches of rain are possible.  The good news, is that this will likely be the last storm for several days, giving most of us a chance to dry out.

Have a great end of the week, and start to your weekend.

Wednesday Discussion : Blustery with Mountain Flakes

Happy Wednesday, Hudson Valley!

Mostly cloudy and breezy
High in the low 40s
Wind Chills in the 30s

We continue to see snow showers in eastern Columbia and NE Dutchess counties, associated with some upsloping and a Mohawk-Hudson Convergence, generating enough lift in the atmosphere to produce snow showers in some portions of the valley. In those previously discussed areas… an additional coating to an inch or two of snow is possible today.

For the majority of us… mostly cloudy skies, breezy conditions and a few flurries possible. Highs will climb up around 40°, but with a steady NW wind, it will feel like the 30s for much of the day.

Have a great day everyone!

Late Tuesday Night Update : Snow for Some

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY
* WHERE… ONLY Columbia County in Hudson Valley
 
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations will average 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts at higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHEN…This evening through 7 PM EST Wednesday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
 
*** HVW Commentary ***
This advisory is ONLY for Columbia county.  This persistent snow band will weaken during the day on Wednesday.  2 to 4 inches of snow are possible, mainly in extreme eastern Columbia County (east of Copake Lake and Chatham).  The majority of the county will see a coating to an inch or 2.
 
For the remainder of the Hudson Valley.  A few scattered snow showers and flurries are possible.  In a longer snow shower, a dusting to a 1/4 inch of snow is possible… but most will see barely a dusting in spots.  Conditions should dry out toward morning on Wednesday… and begin improving quickly in the valley.  Catskills and higher elevations… along with eastern Columbia county… may be a bit slower to improve Wednesday morning.  Be sure to check the conditions in your area Wednesday morning before heading out.

Tuesday Discussion : Rain Exits, Wind Enters

With another 1 inch of rain on average for the Hudson Valley Monday night… the Hudson Valley has gradually become a swampland in the month of November.  While we wait for final totals to come in… if we add the roughly 1 inch on top of the 7 inches that have already fallen in Poughkeepsie… that’s a whopping 8 inches of rain in Poughkeepsie for November!  To put that in perspective, the average is 3.47″… so we’re over double the average for November.  We’ll try to pull data on the record for the month… but we have to be getting close at this point.

But with the exit of the rain, the winds will begin to pick up on the back side of the storm.  WNW winds will gust over 20mph at times, accompanied by temperatures around 40°.  That will create wind chills in the 30s, making for a blustery afternoon.  These conditions will be with us through most of the week.  So plan for blustery conditions through Thursday, with temperatures only in the low 40s… and wind chills in the 30s.  Bundle up!

Monday Discussion : More Rain on the Way

Hopefully everyone enjoyed what amounted to a beautiful Sunday across the Hudson Valley.  Highs approached 50° all across the valley areas… which is actually where we should be for this time of year.  However, Poughkeepsie’s high of 50° on Sunday was the first time the weather station hit the 50° mark since November 8th… which was 17 days ago!  It’s been an incredible run of above below temperatures in our area.

But on Monday, another storm system from the Midwest will push eastward.  A storm that has brought snow to the Chicago area, will run into the milder air over the northeast, and bring rain showers to the Hudson Valley.  At the same time, a coastal storm will develop and push northeast… which will intensify the rain late on Monday and Monday evening.

Futurecast Radar: 6am Monday – 7am Tuesday

Timing the Rain…
– 9am to 12pm : scattered rain showers develop
– 12pm to 10pm : steady rain develops, heaviest 4pm to 9pm
– 12am to 6am : rain showers mix with wet snow in Catskills, then taper off

When all is said and done, around an inch of rain is possible on average… with some locally higher amounts.

We’ll have to watch for areas of flash flooding.  If you go back to the almanac image at top… the area has seen nearly 7 inches of rainfall in November.  The ground is saturated, rivers and streams are at capacity… another 1 inch of rain could certainly be cause for concern around flood prone areas.  Check the website or our Facebook page for updates as the storm unfolds.

Sunday Outlook : Drying and Milder

Any left over rain showers should taper off quickly during the morning on Sunday.  Then skies should begin to clear out a bit, and afternoon highs should climb toward 50° in the valley.

Sunday will feel quite mild compared to the temperatures over the past week and a half.  However, temperatures will only climb up to near average for what we would expect this time of year.  That’s because temperatures have been so incredibly cold over the past week.  And for the month of November, Poughkeepsie is running roughly 4° below average… giving us our coldest month compared to average, since April (-5.5° compared to average).

So with the milder temperatures, we’re also tracking a deepening storm system off to our west.  This system will bring snow to Chicago… but rainfall to the Hudson Valley.  The storm will move eastward early Monday, and bring rain showers to the Hudson Valley near… or just after the AM commute on Monday…

Futurecast Radar: 6am Monday – 7am Tuesday

The Hudson Valley is on the lower right hand side of the graphic, and you can see the rain showers push in before 12pm on Monday… likely between 9am and 12pm.  Then the steady rain is likely with us through the afternoon and evening hours, before tapering off near midnight.  When all is said and done… another inch of rainfall seems likely.

So with the rain from Saturday night… and the rain from Monday… that will make 2 rain storms in 48 hours, coming hot on the heels of record breaking cold.  The weather in the Hudson Valley sure is interesting…

Friday Discussion: Record Breaking Cold!

The 2nd coldest November air mass on record has settled into the Hudson Valley, and it’s breaking records left and right:
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY records:
1)  Record Low of 6° this morning, Friday 11/23/18.  This breaks the old record of 9° set in 1989, and has been confirmed by the National Weather Service.
 
2)  Record Low of 11°, for Thursday 11/22/18.  This was set late Thursday night, just before midnight.  As of this post, the National Weather Service has not confirmed the record.
 
3) Record Low Maximum of 27° set for 11/22.  This is the coldest high temperature on record for the 22nd of November.
 
4) Record Low Maximum TIED for Thanksgiving Day.  27° ties for the coldest high temperature on Thanksgiving Day… when on 11/23/1989 the high was 27° on Thanksgiving Day.
 
5) The low temperature of 6° on 11/23/18 is the 2nd coldest low temperature on record for the month of November in Poughkeepsie.  The coldest November temperature on record in Poughkeepsie is 3°, set on November 24, 1989.
 
That makes this the 2nd coldest November air mass on record in the Hudson Valley, only behind the Thanksgiving air mass of 1989, that peaked on Thursday, November 23rd, and Friday, November 24th, 1989.  Some truly bitter cold holiday weather for the Hudson Valley!

Potential Record Breaking Frozen Turkey

Happy Thanksgiving, Hudson Valley!  We hope some time with friends and family warms your heart!

November has been very cold so far.  The Hudson Valley has been roughly 2.5° below average so far, and it’s going to get much colder, before it gets warmer.  The arctic front has pushed through with snow squalls Wednesday afternoon.  But the story the next 48 hours… will be the bitter cold.

If temperatures get as cold as projected, it would break a record that has stood for over 30 years.  Just incredible cold air.  As the day progresses… abundant sunshine won’t do anything to warm the temperatures…

Projected highs in the afternoon, are only expected to reach the low 20s!  That’s roughly 25 degrees below average!  But this doesn’t even tell the whole story.  When we factor in winds out of the NW at 15mph, gusting over 25mph at times… Wind Chills will be pinned in the single digits and low teens…

This map is simply unbelievable.  Real feel “wind chill” temperatures barely reaching 10° in the middle of the afternoon?!  Anyone travelling on Thursday should certainly be prepared for a harsh chill.  Be sure to bundle up the kids appropriately, because this kind of chill has not been felt since the heart of last winter.

Then… as we get to the night time on Thursday, the winds will die down.  The result will be very favorable conditions for radiational cooling, under clear skies and calm winds.  The result, could be… the coldest November temperatures on record…

Under ideal conditions, Poughkeepsie could fall into the mid single digits per the National Weather Service.  If this map is correct, it would break the record for the date, which is 9° set in 1989.  And the projected low of 4° would be 1 degree off the all time coldest temperature in the month of November, for the city of Poughkeepsie.  On November 24, 1989… Poughkeepsie recorded a low temperature of 3°… that is the coldest temperature on record for November.  And if the conditions are perfect… it could be within range of being challenged Thursday night into Friday morning.

This air mass is incredibly cold, Hudson Valley.  The winter season is off to a rapid and furious start.  We’ll see if it can continue into December… but for now, November is proving to be harsh.

Possible Record Cold Thanksgiving

The next 24-48 hours will be more like mid February vs mid November.

First image is a simulated radar showing that a narrow band of heavy snow squalls will cut through the region from NW to SE between 2pm and 6pm, this line may become broken as it interacts with the higher terrain of the Catskills. Areas that are impacted by this squall line will experience a brief but intense period of heavy snow and near white out conditions, this will create hazardous travel in areas impacted. 

The next image is wind chills in the wake of the Arctic cold front, single digits in Valley locations and 20-30 degrees below zero across the Catskills! This is nearly unprecedented cold and wind chills for this time of the year and some region records will likely be broken.

Wednesday Night Lows
Thanksgiving Day Highs

The following two images show low temps tonight and highs tomorrow, its safe to say everyone is gonna be cold turkey tomorrow, and some of these temps are cold be are to gobble up, but bundle up and keep those tail feathers warm!

Unsettled Start to the Week : Light Rain and Wet Snow

It’s only mid November, but if you look at the 5 Day Forecast, you might think it was mid January.  As we head into the start of the work week, we’re watching a weak short wave roll through the base of the trough.  As reaches the east coast, the weak low pressure will try to intensify just a bit.  It will be a very close call… and yet another tricky forecast.

So the first thing we’re going to do is take a look at the futurecast radar simulation for Monday afternoon, night, and Tuesday morning.  Then we’ll discuss the possible implications for our forecast.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Monday – 12pm Tuesday

Timing:
– 2pm to 6pm : Precipitation arrives from west to east
– 10pm to 6am : precipitation is heaviest
– 6am to 10am : precipitation tapers off

Impact:
– Hudson Valley split in half… northern half wet snow / southern half mostly rain
– Temperatures at or above freezing: travel troubles mainly after dark
– Must monitor position of rain / snow line, to see if it shifts south

A weak wave of energy will spread light precipitation along the frontal boundary Monday into Tuesday.  Initial concerns were that the boundary would be about 50 miles further south.  In which case, it could have been another 2 to 4 inch event for the majority of the Hudson Valley.  Instead, it looks like an event for the Catskills and our northern Hudson Valley viewers…

The majority of the Hudson Valley should see mainly a cold light rain.  Some wet snow flakes will surely mix in at times, with temperatures pinned in the mid 30s.  However, as you get into the higher elevations of Sullivan county, and the Shawangunk Mountains, up toward Mohonk… and toward Hurley.  Those areas could see a slushy coating to an inch or two… mainly on grassy surfaces it seems.  The same can be said for areas north of Kingston… mostly the valley portions of Columbia and Greene counties.  As you head further into the Catskills… it will be colder, and the wet snow could add up to another 2 to 4… maybe even 5 inches.

Potential Forecast Issues

We will need to watch the position of the frontal boundary closely.  If it settles 25 miles further south, we’ll have to adjust our snow totals upward, and include the Mid Hudson Valley.  But the trends we’ve seen indicate this is unlikely.  The trouble with this forecast, is that the 850mb (cloud level) temperatures are at or just above freezing.  The freezing line will set up depending on the frontal boundary… so position is critical to our forecast.

It’s a bit of a tricky disturbance, but it is starting to appear more of a problem for the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley… and a mostly rain event further south.  More updates as necessary…