Monday Discussion : 2018 Ends With Rain… Fittingly

How else do you end what has been an unbelievably wet year for our region? Another rain storm!!

First image is a simulated radar at around midnight, heavy rain and the ball should be falling at the same time, second image is total rainfall from this system which looks to be between 1”-1.5” of rain region wide.


The exception as always will be the terrain enhancement favored location in the Catskills where up to 3” of rain may fall. We will also end December with barely any snowfall across the region, despite our fast start with November’s snow storm. Keep in mind we are only about 10 days in to official winter. We are constantly monitoring the long term guidance, changes in the atmosphere and jet stream in order to determine whether or not winter is evolving towards our winter outlook projections or away from it, so far we have no concerns at this time.

Keep in mind, long range forecasting is about 5% posting model images that are 7-10 days out, and 95% science and upstream atmospheric research, analog comparisons, monitoring sea surface temps, and a plethora of other really nerdy stuff that goes on behind the scenes. We had called for a milder Dec in our long range, we have the bulk of the cold and snow occurring from early/mid Jan through to early March.

We hope everyone has a safe New Years Eve, wet roads and people having a good time isn’t the best combo so be careful! Thank you for all the wonderful support in 2018, every advertisers who makes this possible, every fan the follows us, everyone who’s hit the donate tab on the website, we look forward to another year of keeping you all ahead of the weather and not “dropping the ball” to often.

Sunday Outlook: AM Snow Showers, PM Sun

A small area of snow showers has really enhanced over the western HV sand Catskills this morning.  Parts of the area have already seen a coating of snow, while the eastern HV has just seen a few scattered flurries and snow showers.

This weak disturbance was part of the forecast, but the enhancement over the Catskills and western HV is a bit more than anticipated.  None the less, this event will be short lived, falling apart as it exits to the east between 8 and 10am.  

On radar, you can see the light snow focused over the western HV and Catskills.  This has been the case over the last hour, and these snow showers are weakening as they push east.

The snowfall projected by our best computer guidance suggests the coating to a half inch amounts will be focused west of the Hudson River.  Most areas will only see a coating, it’s not until you go into the Catskills where you may find a localized half inch to 1 inch.

The roads in areas where the light snow is steadily falling could be snow covered and icy.  Temps are in the upper 20s in these areas, so snow is accumulating on all surfaces.  Make sure you take it a little slow this morning.  The snow will end by 10am, and the sun will mix in… melting anything that falls by mid afternoon.  Afternoon highs will push near 40 degrees.

Friday Outlook : Warming up with Showers

The clouds are thickening across the region this evening, and we’re watching the moisture work its way toward the Hudson Valley. 
Some freezing drizzle is possible at the onset of the moisture (between 12am and 3am).  But we have southerly winds setting up, and most of the Hudson Valley will remain above freezing… or quickly rise above freezing overnight.  There is a “winter weather advisory” in effect for the upper Hudson Valley and Catskills… where temps could will hover near freezing a bit longer.  Watch for a few icy spots overnight north of Kingston and in the Catskills.
By morning, temperatures are expected to be above freezing region wide… near 40° in parts of the valley.  That means a plain cold rain for the AM commute.  We still need to watch for a few slick spots before sunrise, but the commute should be mainly wet across the region.  Temps rise into the 40s and low 50s by late on Friday, so a pretty good warm up is on the way for Friday afternoon.

Wednesday Afternoon Discussion: Eyes on Friday Rain

Mostly cloudy skies are with us this afternoon, as a WNW flow off the Great Lakes has picked up enough moisture to spread clouds into the Hudson Valley.  Any lake effect snow showers or flurries are off to our northwest.  The air mass is chilly… with temps holding in the mid to upper 30s this afternoon.
The chill will be with us into Thursday as well… before we see winds shift out of the SE late on Thursday.  That will cause temperatures to rise Thursday night, out ahead of our next storm system for late Thursday night and Friday.  That will mean wet… not white conditions to close out the work week.  We will have to watch for some spotty wintry mix before dawn on Friday… but that should quickly turn to plain rain as temperatures climb into the upper 30s before sunrise.  Rainfall amounts are likely to be close to a half inch in general, so widespread flooding is not a concern.  
 
Thanks for all your continued support, and motivation… as we begin to head deeper into the winter season.

Tuesday Outlook : Merry Christmas

A very Merry Christmas, Hudson Valley!  We hope you have a wonderful day with family and friends!  In terms of the weather, things will be quiet and seasonable across the region.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected all across the valley.  In addition, afternoon highs should be approaching average… which is in the upper 30s, meaning weather won’t be a factor in your plans for Christmas day.

Our next threat of unsettled weather appears to be Thursday night and Friday, as a major storm system will push into the Midwest.  This will bring warming temperatures and a chance of rain by Thursday night.  Unlike the previous storm system, rainfall amounts look to be closer to a half inch.  So flooding concerns should be minimal.

Once we move into the New Year, we should gradually see the potential for a more wintry pattern… but we’ll have more on that in the next day or two.  We’re hoping to do a video discussion on the potential long range pattern.

Merry Christmas everyone… we thank you tremendously, for all your continued support!

I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas Eve…

Anyone dreaming of a White Christmas, will have to settle for a White Christmas Eve.  A weak disturbance will move into the Hudson Valley around midnight tonight… spreading light snow showers around the region.  Expect periods of light snow around the region from roughly 12am to 7am, Monday morning.
Temperatures will be roughly 30° to 34° during that time, and snow will accumulate on most surfaces.  Snow will struggle to stick to roadways initially… but toward morning, untreated roads could be snow covered and icy in spots… especially higher elevations.  Take it a bit slow if you’re travelling toward sunrise.
Snow amounts are expected to be a coating to 1 inch in general… but there is likely to be a rather narrow band of slightly heavier snow showers, where up to 2 inches of snow could fall.  In the Catskills, up to 3 inches could fall in a few spots, due to the elevation enhanced snowfall.
 
Everything tapers off between 6am and 10am on Monday, and the sun will mix in during the afternoon.  Highs on Monday will be around 40°, which should cause most of what snow does fall… to melt.  But hopefully it is a festive touch to the holiday season for most.

Weekend Discussion : Christmas Eve Snow

We’ve seen record breaking warmth in the last 24 hours… with Poughkeepsie setting a new record of 62°, breaking the old record of 61°… set in 1957.  But the cold front has brought temps crashing back to reality… and blustery conditions have returned to the Hudson Valley.

Now the primary question on everyone’s mind… is “Can we still get a White Christmas?” … and as luck would have it, we’re going to get some snow just in time to make for a festive Christmas Eve.

A weak shortwave (disturbance) will push toward the northeast Sunday evening.  It will have just enough lift in the atmosphere to touch off some snow showers… and bring us a fresh dusting of snow in time for Christmas Eve.

Futurecast Radar: 6pm Sunday – 10am Monday

After sunset on Sunday, some light snow showers will develop across the Hudson Valley… and light snow is expected between 9pm Sunday and 6am Monday.  The snows look light, and not very well organized.  But a general dusting to 2 inches is likely… with some towns possibly seeing as much as 3 inches of snow by sunrise on Monday.

Temperatures will be right around 30°, so snow may struggle to stick to paved surfaces initially… but a fresh coating of snow likely awaits us when we wake up Christmas Eve morning.  Great for getting everyone fully into the holiday spirit!

The only issue for anyone wanting a White Christmas… is can we hang on to the snow through the day on Monday?  Or will the snow melt in the sunshine and temperatures around 40°?  It’s likely that most valley areas will see the snow melt on Monday, most of it anyway… because temps will be above freezing.  But if the sunshine is limited, and temps hover closer to freezing Monday afternoon… we may be able to hang onto the snow to give us a White Christmas.

We’ll have to keep our eyes on it… and see how it unfolds!

Thursday Evening Radar Discussion : Stormy Night Ahead

The radar is only beginning to become active, with a lot more rain to come.  These are mainly light rain showers scattered about the region… with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s.  A very stormy night lies ahead of us.
For the next several hours, expect increasing and heavier rain showers developing.  By midnight, a steady light to moderate rain is expected across the Hudson Valley… with heavier downpours possible at times.  In addition, a strong South wind will do 2 things…
1… cause temperatures to surge overnight, climbing into the 50s by morning, and possibly rising near 60° Friday afternoon.
2… bring strong wind gusts upwards of 30mph at times, possibly causing sporadic down trees and spotty power outages… especially in the Catskills.
 
The steady to heavy rain will be with us through the AM commute, most likely becoming more scattered in nature toward mid day on Friday.  But the threat of showers will be with us into Saturday.  Rainfall amounts by mid day on Friday, could be between 1 and 2 inches… with up to 3 inches possible in the lower Hudson Valley and Catskills.  Batten down the hatches, Hudson Valley… we have a stormy night ahead.

Thursday Outlook : The Storm Approaches

Our winds will shift out of the south on Thursday, ushering in some warmer air to the Hudson Valley.  Temps on Thursday will climb into the mid and upper 40s during the afternoon, out ahead of the rainfall heading our way.

Summary:
– Rain showers develop near sunset
– Rain steady toward midnight
– Rain heavy at times overnight… Flash Flood Watch
– Rain soaked Friday AM commute… 1 to 3 inches of rain possible

Rainfall will develop from south to north near sunset.  Rain showers of varying intensity will be with us through the overnight, and fall heavy at times after midnight.  Showers should begin to taper down Friday afternoon… but not before a lot of rainfall falls on the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar: 1pm Thursday – 1pm Friday

You can see the conveyor belt of moisture that is expected to set up just over the Hudson Valley, from 12am to 12pm Friday.  Some very soggy conditions are likely for the Friday AM commute.  So much so, that a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Hudson Valley.

Projected Rainfall: NAM model

Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible Thursday night and Friday morning.  Some higher locations could exceed 3 inches, where the topography enhances the upward motion, and by default… enhances the rainfall totals.  We’ll have updates on the Facebook page as the storm begins over our area.  But suffice to say… heavy rain will be an issue in the overnight into early morning Friday hours

Strong… Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts

Also not to be taken too lightly… will be the wind gusts Thursday night into Friday.  With the proximity of the low pressure to the coast… a STRONG SE flow will set up.  This will translate into gusts over 30mph being possible.  We can’t rule out spotty power outages, because the winds will be gusting strong at times.  Areas that are prone to lose power in windy conditions… may want to plan for the potential of power outages.

Mid Week Discussion : More Rain Heading Our Way

After a sharp, crisp start to the month of December… things have moderated just a bit.  The pattern over North America has been more off the Pacific Ocean, instead of originating out of the arctic.  So after the first 10 days of December…

Things have moderated, and are closer to average for this time of year…

So clearly, the country (and Hudson Valley) are not as cold as we were a week or so ago.  In addition, when we look at the coming 10 days… we will very likely close out the month of December with temperatures that are above average for this time of year…

So by the time we get to the end of December, it’s likely that we’ll be near normal… to a bit above average for the month as a whole.  We’ll have to see how it plays out over the next several days.

Soaking Rainfall on the Way: Thursday Night – Friday

With a westerly jet stream off the Pacific Ocean… and no ridge out west to force the storm off the east coast… we’re going to see the storm track inland, up the Appalachians.  That will mean more rain for our area.

The low pressure will approach Thursday evening, and spread rain into the region near or just after sunset on Thursday.  Rain showers will be with us through the night Thursday, and into Friday morning.  Friday looks unsettled and mild… with temps well into the 50s.  Rainfall totals over 1 inch are surely possible, so stay tuned for more information as we get closer.

Those questioning about the potential for some light snow near Christmas… the odds are very much against it.  But there is a slight chance, that a weak disturbance could whiten the ground on Christmas Eve.  If we had to put a percentage on it… we’d say there is roughly a 10% to 20% chance at this point.  But we’ll see if things begin to look more favorable as we get closer.

For now… have a great Wednesday!