Monday Discussion : Cool Pattern Starts the Week

Are we about to enter into May? … or are we stuck in March? … Based on the latest weather this weekend, it might be hard to tell.  In the wake of a rainstorm to close the work week, we saw a blustery Saturday with gusts over 35mph… and Sunday saw a return to rain showers and unsettled weather.  Both days saw temperatures pinned in the 40s, struggling into the low 50s in some places.  Then last night… calm winds and clearing skies allowed low temperatures into the low and mid 30s… maybe even some upper 20s.  That will mean some areas of frost… even a hard freeze in some places.  Just as many were thinking about planting for the season.

So to start the work week, we’ll see sunshine mixing with afternoon clouds.  Highs will struggle into the mid and upper 50s for the afternoon… possibly creeping toward 60° for highs in some places… several degrees below average.  Clouds will thicken during the evening, and scattered rain showers are possible before midnight.  Scattered showers for the overnight, should clear out in time for the Tuesday morning commute.  Conditions should then improve on Tuesday… with some breaks of sunshine.  Depending on how much sun we see, will determine whether highs are in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday… or push the 70° mark.

The remainder of the week looks quite unsettled and uncertain, as a series of storm systems develop along a frontal boundary over the central US.  Those storms will track northeastward, and continually spread clouds and chances for showers through the 2nd half of the work week.  If you have plans for later in the week, you’ll want to keep checking on the forecast.  The position of the boundary will need to be fine tuned in the coming days… and will mean the difference between clouds, showers and temps in the 50s… and sunshine and clouds, and temps in the 70s.

European Model Northeast Friday Temperatures

GFS Model Northeast Friday Temperatures

Quite a major uncertainty… but it’s due to the position of a backdoor cold front that could hold over New England, and keep the flow out of the NE.  Details are everything as we head through the week…

Friday Discussion : Stormy End to the Week

As we approach mid day, you can see that the radar is very active. Numerous scattered rain showers are spread all out around the region. These rain showers are moving NNE rather rapidly, and will keep the Hudson Valley soggy and unsettled through the afternoon hours.
Radar Loop : 10am – 11:40am
Our first period of rain showers and downpours can be seen on this radar loop, and will impact the region through mid afternoon. Then we could see things taper off for a few hours around the evening commute. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and affect the region between 6pm and midnight. So if you have evening plans, be sure to have the rain gear handy. We don’t expect any severe weather with these storms, but a few strong wind gusts can’t be ruled out with a heavy downpour.
After midnight, we should slowly begin to see things dry out… and conditions to become quite windy behind the front. That will lead to a blustery Saturday around the region.
Stay dry, and have a great Friday afternoon!

Thursday Discussion : Seasonal Spring Day

A cool, but comfortable spring day around the Hudson Valley, with lots of sunshine and blue skies. Afternoon highs should top out in the mid to upper 60s. But clouds will be increasing through the afternoon, out ahead of our next storm system… which will impact the region late tonight and on Friday.
A low pressure system approaches from the SW late tonight, and it will spread rain showers into the region by sunrise on Friday. Expect a damp Friday morning commute. The showers will likely taper off for several hours… with skies remaining cloudy, and the threat of scattered showers lingering through the afternoon… with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
As the cold front approaches near sunset on Friday, a line of downpours and thundershowers are expected some time between 6pm and 10pm. Behind that, temperatures will tumble in to the 40s, and scattered rain showers will last through much of Friday night… possibly tapering as wet snow in the Catskills.
That will leave us with a blustery and chilly final weekend of April. Saturday looks windy with increasing afternoon sunshine… with highs struggling into the low and mid 50s. Sunday, we may see another weak system push through the region, that could feel like late winter. Scattered rain and mountain wet snow showers… and highs possibly not climbing above 50°.
Enjoy the rest of your Thursday afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Gorgeous Taste of Spring

If you’ve been able to get outside this morning, even for a few minutes, you can’t help but have noticed that it’s gorgeous out.
Tuesday afternoon will see sunshine and blue skies… mixing with some increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected… a beautiful spring day.
However, we are tracking a front approaching from the NW, that will bring scattered showers to the Hudson Valley this evening. The potential for scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder will be with us through midnight. If you have plans tonight, definitely factor in the chance for a few showers.
Behind the front on Wednesday, temps will be cooler… highs in the afternoon only climb into the low 60s, with a persistent NW breeze. A much different feel from today.
Hope everyone has a great afternoon! Enjoy the nice weather!

Monday Discussion : Persistent Upper Level Low

An unsettled start to the work week, as the upper low pressure system over the eastern US continues to linger. The result is another very weak coastal low pressure system developing today. It should stay mainly to our east, and its impacts on the Hudson Valley should be confined to mostly cloudy skies.
Even with a weak coastal storm lingering off shore, and winds out of the northeast, we should see highs climb into the mid and upper 60s on Monday. Leaving us with a rather gray, but mainly dry start to the work week.
Clouds should give way a bit more on Tuesday, and our winds shift out of the SW. That should allow temps to jump into the 70s for highs, and quite a nice spring day on tap for Tuesday.
Conditions should improve a bit as the week goes on, but we’ll still be dodging some instability through the middle and 2nd half of the work week. More info is available on the 5 day forecast. Hope everyone has a great start to the week!

Sunday Discussion : Unsettled Easter

Happy Easter, Hudson Valley!  Our weather for this Easter Sunday will be less than perfect… but shouldn’t throw any major wrenches into your plans.  Clouds will be the story of the day, but could mix with breaks of sun at times.  Here’s the futurecast satellite loop for today, and you can see it’s got lots of clouds, with breaks in the sky at times expected…

Futurecast Satellite Loop : Sunday 8am thru 8pm

So while clouds won’t exit the region today, they should allow for some peeks of sun at times.  In addition, temperatures should be quite comfortable for a spring afternoon, topping out in the mid and upper 60s in the Hudson Valley (a bit cooler in the Catskills)

Sunday High Temperatures

So all in all, looking like a fairly nice Sunday afternoon.  However, spotty rain showers cannot be ruled out either.  With a large upper level low pressure system stalled out over the eastern US, it means there will be a constant risk of pop up rain showers and sprinkles through the afternoon.  Here’s the simulated radar for the Hudson Valley

Futurecast Radar : 10am Sunday – 4am Monday

You can see some instability especially over the Catskills during the afternoon on Sunday, but the majority of the region appears likely to remain dry.  But a glance at the simulated radar, and you can see why we can’t rule out the spotty rain shower or sprinkle this afternoon.

All in all, the weather should cooperate today.  We hope everyone has a wonderful Sunday!

Saturday Discussion : A Tropical Feel

Our tropical morning continues around the Hudson Valley, as it feels more like a humid summer morning than mid April.  That’s thanks in large part to a very strong southerly flow, pulling an almost subtropical air mass up the east coast.  It was responsible for lots of severe weather over the Mid-Atlantic yesterday, and has provided tropical downpours so far this morning in the Hudson Valley.

On radar, you can see the dry slot moving northward (Blue arrows), and into the Hudson Valley.  That has allowed much of the rain to taper off to scattered showers in our region… as the heaviest rain pushes further north.  You can see a pretty heavy band of showers off to our west, in eastern PA.  That line is moving NNE as well, and likely will stay mostly west of the HV, possibly bringing additional rain to the Catskills.

For the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, we should see these rain showers gradually diminish and become more sporadic as the day progresses, but the threat of a shower will be with us through the afternoon.  Our strong southerly flow will continue, allowing winds to gust over 25mph at times.  Temperatures will likely hold in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon, as clouds refuse to give way to much (if any) sunshine.

The rain showers should completely taper this evening.  Leaving us with mainly dry conditions heading into Easter Sunday.  Conditions won’t be ideal for Easter Sunday, but the weather should not be a big factor in your outdoor plans. 

Have a great Saturday!

Friday Discussion : Stormy Skies Ahead

After a chilly Thursday, our winds out of the south have increased, pulling much warmer air into the Hudson Valley for our Friday.

Friday High Temperatures

If we can see some breaks of sunshine, Friday afternoon could turn out being quite nice.  However, there is a storm on the horizon, and it’s resulted in Flash Flood Watches for many parts of the Hudson Valley.  A strong storm system off to our southwest will generate severe weather over parts of Virginia and the Carolinas… but thankfully, we don’t expect that to reach our area.  Rain, will be the main concern… as well as windy conditions ahead of this storm.  Here’s the futurecast radar simulation, for a general timeline on this storm…

Futurecast Radar: 4pm Friday – 5pm Saturday

Scattered rain showers arrive in the Hudson Valley by sunset, but the bulk of the rain will be off to our west.  The line of showers and thunderstorms will advance east overnight, pushing into the Hudson Valley between 2am and 6am.  That’s the period where the steadiest showers and thundershowers are expected.  Just how much rainfall we receive, depends on the position and timing of the squall line.  Here’s the projected rainfall totals for the Hudson Valley…

GFS Model Rainfall Projections by Saturday AM

What’s worth noticing, is the wide range of rainfall amounts.  The eastern HV is showing 0.5″ to 1.0″ of rainfall on average, while the Catskills are showing 1 to 3 inches of rain!  The majority of the region is under a Flash Flood Watch, however we believe that there will be a “dry slot” that sees less rainfall than other parts of the northeast.  The question, is “where” does that dry slot end up?  It does appear to us, that the Hudson Valley will be in that dry slot, and see less rain than areas to our west and east.  That said, we are observing the Flash Flood Watch, and preparing for the possibility of 1 to 3 inches of rain.

In addition, we’re preparing for a very windy night around the Hudson Valley.  Take a look at these maximum gusts overnight…

Projected Maximum Wind Gusts Friday Night

Numerous gusts over 40mph are expected, which is not a severe wind… but definitely could cause some problems, and spotty power outages in a few areas.  Make sure you secure any loose outdoor objects before dark… or come morning, they may not be where you left them.

We’ll try to track the timing of the event on Facebook overnight, but needless to say, a warm, windy and rainy night is expected for the Hudson Valley.

Tuesday Discussion : Tranquil Tuesday

A much less eventful day across the Hudson Valley for our Tuesday. After some very active weather Sunday night and lasting into Monday’s blustery wind… Tuesday looks cool and quiet. Afternoon highs should climb into the upper 50s and even low 60s, depending on the exact location.
Clouds will increase later today, and leave us with mainly cloudy skies overnight, along with the threat of a spot shower or two… but nothing major expected overnight.
Our next chance for rain comes on Thursday, and Friday, as another storm system… similar in some ways to our last storm from Sunday… takes aim on the eastern US. More on that as we get closer.
Have a great Tuesday!

Sunday Discussion : Clouds, Sun and Seasonable

After a gorgeous Saturday with highs in the 70s… our Sunday doesn’t look quite as nice… but still should be a winner in terms of weather.
We’ll have steadily increasing mid and high level clouds through the day.  But we should also manage some breaks of sunshine along the way.  Afternoon highs should still make their way into the mid and upper 60s around the Hudson Valley, thanks to a decent southerly flow. 
As the afternoon progresses, we’ll see a few spotty rain showers and sprinkles around parts of the valley.  These should be very few and far between until after 4pm… but we can’t rule out the chance for a spot shower or two.  Tonight, clouds will thicken and scattered showers will become more common.  The heavier rain and thunderstorms don’t arrive until well after midnight… likely between 2am and 6am.  The line of storms could pack a punch, and the Hudson Valley is on the northern edge of a slight risk of severe weather per the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center.  We’ll monitor the threat again tonight, but the primary concern is wind gusts over 50mph with the squall line.
For now, everyone enjoy what should end up being a fairly decent mid-April day!