Thursday Discussion : Another Unsettled Afternoon

One final day of unsettled weather across the Hudson Valley. The afternoon on Thursday looks decent, with clouds and sunshine… and highs in the mid to upper 70s. However, after some heavy thunderstorms on Wednesday, with gusty winds and heavy downpours… we could see similar conditions for the evening commute on Thursday.
This futurecast radar image for 6pm tonight shows showers north of I-84… with heavy downpours and thunderstorms near and south of I-84. The rain and storms will likely be focused on the lower Hudson Valley, so conditions are not expected to be as stormy for our northern viewers. Nonetheless, another stormy afternoon commute is possible.
Timing: 4pm to 12am
Worst Conditions: 5pm to 8pm
Concern: Localized Flash Flooding & gusty winds
 
We’ll try to pass along any advisories that pop up, but with the heavy rain of the past few days, areas that see prolonged downpours could experience flash flooding.

Wednesday Discussion: Late Day Concerns

Another day of unsettled weather ahead for the region, the cold front that set off showers and storms yesterday has pushed through the northern half the the region and remain hung up to our south, this has left the northern part of the region cool and damp and the southern half a bit warmer, this will be an important detail as the day progresses. 

Futurecast Radar : 6pm Wednesday

One of the key components for severe weather is instability, this instability is supplied by day time heating that occurs from sunshine, cloud cover will limit the ability for daytime heating to creating the lifting parcels of air needed for tall thunderstorms, for that reason it appears the severe threat will be “mostly” limited to the southern most parts of the region and even areas south of our forecast area. 

All of the ingredients needed for heavy rain are in place, short range guidance suggests a maturing line of showers and embedded storms will move NW to SE across the region between 4pm and 8pm, this window will be the greatest threat for any severe weather that may occur, at the moment it seems the threat will increase as the line pushes further south and may not reach its peak till it begins to enter NJ/NYC area, but we will monitor closely. 

If the low clouds can burn off and some clearing can occur across parts of the region that would of course increase the probability, for now lets just be prepared for a period of very heavy rain with the potential for large hail and gusty winds. If we see a change in the probability of severe weather we will share updates.

Saturday Discussion – Good Unoffical Start of Summer

A fine spring day around the Hudson Valley for our final Saturday in May.  Fair weather clouds will mix with sunshine, and afternoon highs should climb into the low 70s.  All outdoor activities should be in good shape for Saturday afternoon… but you may need to be on guard for a brief shower in the next hour or two… especially in the Catskills.
 
We are tracking a broken band of rain showers pushing eastward this afternoon.  The heaviest and most organized rain showers are north of our area, but the southern edge of the showers could spread some precipitation into the Hudson Valley, especially the northern half of the valley.  These showers are moving rather quick, and shouldn’t last all that long in any given location.  But a 30 minute shower is possible between 1pm and 3pm.
 
Other than these scattered showers associated with the passage of a warm front… the weather this weekend looks very nice.  After a nice Saturday afternoon and evening, our Sunday looks to be a beautiful summer preview for the unofficial start to summer.  Sunshine should mix with clouds, and a warm SW wind should pull temperatures into the low and mid 80s for highs!  The good news, is that the humidity should not be too terrible on Sunday, with dew point temps approaching 60°.  On a humidity scale of 1 to 5… with 1 being very comfortable and 5 being oppressive humidity, a 60° dew point typically provides a 1 or 2 in terms of comfort level.  So our summer preview looks quite nice at the moment.
 
No matter what, we hope everyone has a wonderful “unofficial” start to summer, as we begin the Memorial Day weekend.

Wednesday Discussion : Picture Perfect

A beautiful spring day lined up for our Wednesday. Hopefully some of us are able to get out and enjoy the sunshine and blue skies, light winds, and highs in the low 70s.
We’ll watch some clouds and patchy showers overnight, but skies should clear up again early on Thursday. Highs on Thursday again should climb to the low 70s… but we’ll have an approaching cold front from the west, and that will bring the threat of severe thunderstorms to the region.
The early timing on these looks to be late afternoon into the evening hours… and early versions of hi-resolution guidance suggest it may not be a widespread threat… and focused to our west. However… we need to keep our eye on the potential. More updates as we get closer.
 
Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion: Warm Afternoon T-Storm Potential

A summer-like start to the work week around the Hudson Valley.  Sunshine and blue skies are mixing with fair weather clouds.  Giving us a great start to the day

Temperatures are soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s as of mid day, as you can see on the first image.

The radar is rather quiet right now, we have some extra clouds and scattered light rain showers in the Catskills, but it’s quiet across the majority of the region.

But there is some concern for pop up thunderstorms this afternoon, due to our summer like air mass in place.  You can see the graphic from the Storm Prediction Center putting the northern HV in a “slight risk” for severe weather (Hudson Valley is circled).  A few strong and possibly severe storms could pop up randomly around the region… mainly after 2pm.  Guidance suggests these storms will be isolated, and spotty in nature, but could contain damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours where they do occur

We’ll keep an eye on the radar and potential warnings as they arise.

Sunday Discussion: Payback for Mother’s Day

Mother’s Day may have been cold and rainy… ruining any outdoor plans.  But Mother Nature is going to try and make up for that today… in a big way!

This image shows the projected afternoon highs around the Hudson Valley and Catskills.  Sunshine, blue skies, and fair weather clouds will be the afternoon weather story.  For anyone taking advantage of the weather and heading into the Catskills will see highs in the mid 70s today.  Down in the Hudson Valley… 80° is a possibility.  Humidity levels will be a bit higher than any point this season… but it should remain within a comfortable range.

A line of scattered showers and even a thunderstorm are possible very late in the day across the Catskills… in the valley, the concern is likely after dark.  We’ll have more on that as the showers develop and approach the region.  But the daytime hours look fantastic!  Hope everyone can get out and enjoy!

Friday Discussion : Up… Down… and Back Up Again

An up and down Friday on tap for the Hudson Valley…
We have a broken line of scattered rain showers that will gradually push through the Hudson Valley over the next few hours. You can see on the 10:30am radar loop, that these showers are not too heavy, and are moving rather quickly. So while we started the day with sunshine and blue skies… we’ve quickly seen clouds move in, and showers in some areas.
 
However… things will look up again this afternoon, as these clouds and scattered light rain showers move east, and a mix of clouds and sunshine should return for much of the afternoon. Highs this afternoon in the low to mid 70s are expected…
 
However… things could take another turn toward the evening, as a few spotty showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder could arrive in portions of the area between 5pm and 8pm. The best chance for this is the SW HV (Sullivan and Orange counties).
 
But a rollercoaster day to close out the work week… that when all the chips have fallen, probably falls in the “win” column in terms of weather. Have a great Friday!

Thursday Discussion : Starting the Trend

A trend is developing across the Hudson Valley, as we have a 2nd day in a row, that will be free of rain… and full of sunshine and blue skies! Expect partly to mostly sunny skies around the region for Thursday, with highs climbing into the mid 60s.
 
Friday looks a touch unsettled, but should still qualify as a “winner” on the whole. A cold front approaches from the west early Friday, and could touch off some scattered showers by mid to late morning. So clouds will be numerous, and spotty showers are also likely… but temps should approach 70°… and it won’t be a washout, so compared to last weekend… it looks pretty good.
 
Then the weekend looks outstanding in comparison to last weekend. So while Mother’s Day’s weather ruined a lot of plans… hopefully many of you can make up for that this weekend! Have a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Gray and Cold

The dreary and cold conditions continue across the Hudson Valley for a 3rd straight day. A coastal storm is slowly exiting out to sea, and an upper level low pressure system has been left in the wake. That slow moving upper level disturbance has kept us unsettled on Tuesday… extending our cold, clouds and drizzle far past its welcome.
The futurecast radar shows another round of scattered showers likely for the afternoon on Tuesday, as the upper level low pressure rotates away. So another damp evening commute is expected. Temps will hold in the 40s for a 3rd straight day as well… as our highs are more typical of early March instead of mid May.
 
Conditions will begin improving on Wednesday, as the upper level disturbance moves away, and allows sunshine to return to the Hudson Valley. It won’t be a picture perfect day, but highs should climb into the 60s, and with a little sun… it will feel like a huge improvement from our weather the past 3 days.
 
Hope everyone makes the best of another gray and chilly day. Better weather is on the horizon. Have a great afternoon!

Monday Discussion : Afternoon Rains Return

After a complete washout for Mother’s Day, we’re going to remain locked in this winter like pattern to start the week.  The result will be a less than desirable start to the work week.

Futurecast Radar: 8am Monday – 2am Tuesday

Monday should start out dry, but clouds will lower ahead of a developing coastal storm.  Rain will develop from west to east between roughly 11am and 3pm… first as light showers, then as a soaking rain once again.  The afternoon looks like a total washout, with periods of moderate to even heavy rainfall.  As a nor’easter develops and strengthens, it will actually pull colder air into the Catskills, and wet snow will be possible around 2000 feet.  For the rest of us… it’s a cold rain, with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday afternoon.

Things will remain unsettled through Tuesday, as the upper level low pressure is slow to exit the eastern US.

Upper Level Jet Stream Pattern (500mb level): Monday – Saturday

It will take almost the entire week for the upper level low pressure system (deep blue colors) to move off shore and be replaced by a warmer ridge (oranges).  The slow progression of the upper level low pressure will keep us unsettled into at least Wednesday.  Then the question, is how much sunshine and warmth we can get, before things more strongly improve for the weekend.

If this were winter, this would be a cold and snowy pattern… but it’s now May, so this is just an annoyance.  The weather pattern has been keeping the cold and stormy weather in the eastern US the past several weeks… instead of out west, where it spent much of February and March.  This is salt in the eye to winter weather lovers, who watch the pattern the craved in February… now unfolding in the month of May.  We’ll keep watching through the week, to see if we can get an improvement before next weekend… but things will be slow to improve.

Have a great start to your week… despite the cold and wet weather.