Hurricane Dorian Looms for SE Coast

The weekend will start out tranquil for the Northeast, making anyone with plans quite pleased.  So our focus shifts to the number one weather story in the United States, Hurricane Dorian.

As of late Friday night, Dorian is a strong Category 4 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140mph… and gusts op to 165mph!  With favorable conditions for development over the Bahamas, this is looking like an extremely dangerous situation for the eastern coast of Florida, as well as the Bahamas.  In the image above, each “M” is the proposed position every 12 hours.  So while the storm is only approximately 550 miles east of Florida, this storm is still projected east of the Florida coast by Monday night.  This storm is projected to slow to a crawl… allowing for Dorian to maintain much of it’s intensity.  More importantly still… areas North and West of the center of circulation, will see areas of rainfall exceeding 10 to 20 inches, resulting in potential flooding, depending on the precise track.

The latest guidance has been trending with a further east track.  Dorian will likely slow down considerably, maintaining intensity, and really hammering away at the Bahamas.  This is a nasty scenario for the Bahamas, bringing Category 3 or 4 sustained winds (130mph+) to parts of the Bahamas.  Anyone in that area, must prepare for a major hurricane impact.  The details could change a bit, but the odds that the Bahamas escape hurricane conditions are diminishing rapidly.

Focusing on the US Coastline, the latest trends of Dorian projecting to slow down, could be good news for Florida and the Georgia coastline.  A slower Dorian will be a stronger Dorian… but if the western progression slows enough, an upper level trough could influence Dorian enough to steer it just off shore.  Up through now… a strong Bermuda high pressure has been steering Dorian west, toward Florida.  But as Dorian nears the US, the air patterns over the US will begin to interact with Dorian, and if the upper level winds push out of the northwest as now projected, it could help slow Dorian and steer it just east of Florida.

GFS Projection for Dorian: Next 7 Days

If that happens the entire eastern coast needs to remain vigilant, as Dorian turns northward.  The Carolinas and Virginia could be the next target next week.  But for now, we should only look about 24 to 72 hours out for Dorian, because a minor change in the position today, could result in big changes downstream.  But needless to say, everyone along the east coast will be watching Dorian very closely.

Wednesday Discussion : Late Day Shower Threat

The first half of our Wednesday has been quite nice, with breaks of sunshine, and temps around 80°. But we’ll see conditions slowly deteriorate over the afternoon hours, as an approaching cold front brings the threat of rain showers and localized downpours for our late afternoon and evening commute.
The latest radar snapshot looks rather ominous, with plenty of rainfall off to our west. Guidance suggests that this rain should break up and weaken a bit as it pushes toward the Hudson Valley. But we do expect unsettled conditions for the evening commute.
 
– 4pm to 10pm : Scattered light to moderate rain showers
– localized downpour possible, as well as rumble of thunder
– evening activities could see a rain delay
 
Just something to keep aware of for your afternoon and evening activities. The rain showers taper off by midnight, and conditions will improve overnight.

Coldest Night since Spring Likely Sunday Night

A sign that the end of summer is upon the horizon, is always that first night where overnight lows dip into the 40s across the Hudson Valley.  That seems possible, if not likely, tonight around the region.  After looking at multiple sources of data, with a NE flow, low dew points, clear skies, and calm winds expected overnight… several parts of the area could dip into the upper 40s, and possibly even some mid 40s across the northern half of the valley.
The record low Monday morning in Poughkeepsie is 43°, set in 1963.  The overnight low there should bottom out around 49° or 50°… but some aggressive data like the image shown from the GFS model, suggests mid 40s can’t be ruled out.  Any way you slice it, a crisp… cool, fall preview is in store overnight.
 
Monday looks quite nice… after a chilly start.  Expect mostly sunny skies, and afternoon highs in the mid 70s.  As our cool, dry air mass continues to hold over the Hudson Valley to start the work week. 

Wednesday Discussion: Humid and Stormy

Another round of heavy rain progressing through the region, persistent cloud cover means we lack the instability for any of these to currently be severe. 

Put the threat of storms, some strong to severe will persist through the day. If we see afternoon sun, the chance of these storms being severe will increase, otherwise expect rounds of passing heavy downpours. This slow moving cold front will eventually clear the region by tomorrow, winds will shift out of the NW and the cool down will begin.

Monday Discussion : Heat, Humidity & Late Day Storms

Sunday was hot… but particularly humid, with dewpoints in the low 70s.  Then the line of thunderstorms brought widespread soaking rain and temporary relief in the form of cooler temperatures.  But we’ll do it all again on Monday, as the heat and humidity will build back into the region.

A heat advisory is in effect, for temps near 90°, but more importantly for the dew points in the low to mid 70s.  That will generate real feel heat index values in the mid 90s around the Hudson Valley.  It’s going to be uncomfortable to say the least, so make sure to take frequent breaks from strenuous outdoor activity on Monday.

In addition, late day T-Storms are also a concern.  Early guidance suggests a band of showers and storms focused on the lower half of the Hudson Valley, mainly after 2 or 3 pm.  However, if there’s anything the weather of the past several days has taught us… is that the computer guidance struggles greatly with the details of these shower and thunderstorm threats that materialize in the afternoon.  Since we’re not able to pinpoint the timing and location in advance, it’s best to keep an eye on the radar, or our Facebook page, where we’ll try to post updates as the situation begins to materialize on Monday.

Stay cool, and have a great Monday!

Summery Sunday

A summery Sunday for the Hudson Valley, as we see heat and humidity build over the region.  Our flow out of the SW will cause humidity to swell, with dew points in the low to mid 70s.  Afternoon highs will approach 90 degrees… feeling like the low to mid 90s when we factor in the humidity.

Like Saturday, we will have to keep an eye on the sky for scattered showers and T-Storms.  Guidance suggests a broken band of storms may form over the region between 4pm and 9pm (HV circles). 

So anyone with outdoor activities will want to take this into consideration

Friday Discussion : Heat Looming for Next Week

Clouds, breaks of sun… and of course, humidity. That’s the story for our Friday, Hudson Valley. Our flow out of the SE will keep the humidity in the air, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. We can’t rule out a shower or two, especially in the Catskills, as the air mass is rather humid.
 
The big story though, is the looming heat wave heading for the Hudson Valley beginning on Sunday. The upper level disturbance in Canada that has been responsible for our unsettled weather this week will exit, and that will allow the Bermuda High to dominate… establishing a large ridge of high pressure over the US. This will result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for much of the region beginning Sunday, and lasting into Tuesday or Wednesday.
The humidity will be a factor as well… so real feel temperatures between 95° and 100° are a possibility by Monday and Tuesday. We’ll update on the details as we get closer, as we try to pin down the intensity of the heat for our area early next week.
 
We hope everyone has a safe and happy start to their weekend! Thank you for all your continued support of HVW, even during what is traditionally our “slow” season.

Wednesday Discussion : Unsettled Humidity

The next few days will feature a rather unsettled weather pattern for the Hudson Valley.  That will translate into warm and humid air mass, with each day featuring a mix of clouds and sunshine… but also a persistent threat of a scattered shower, or afternoon thunderstorms.  This threat will extend from today… straight on into Friday or Saturday.  So don’t expect big changes in the weather pattern right away.

A weak upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes will allow for a couple waves of energy to rotate through the eastern US over the next few days.  Simultaneously, we’ve got a Bermuda high battling for position, which is keeping a rather humid air mass locked in over the region.  We won’t begin to see a change… until the upper level disturbance in the Great Lakes backs off… and allows heat and humidity to move back into the Hudson Valley.  That likely happens on the back half of the weekend.  Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Unsettled Showers

The good news, is that any concern for strong to severe thunderstorms has gone out the window for today. The ‘bad’ news if you have plans, is that the low clouds and scattered rain showers will be the story of the day.
 
We’re seeing scattered showers become more numerous on the radar at this hour, and this should be the trend for today. Expect lots of clouds, with on and off spotty light rain showers through much of the day. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out this afternoon, but nothing intense is expected. The clouds and spotty showers will hold down temperatures a bit, expect highs mainly in the mid 70s around the region… but if a few areas see a period of sunshine today, the temperature could climb toward 80°.
 
The threat of spotty showers will be with us into tonight as well, potentially seeing some clearing skies Wednesday morning. So if you have plans in the next 24 hours, expect the chance of rain… but we aren’t expecting a washout… just cloudy skies, and some on and off light to at times moderate rain showers. Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion: Fine Start to the Work Week

A fine start to the work week for the Hudson Valley. Sunshine will mix with fair weather clouds, and provide a fine summer day. Humidity levels will still be comfortable, making afternoon highs between 80° and 85°, feel quite comfortable.
 
The issues begin to arrive overnight, as a disturbance from the northwest approaches. A frontal boundary will cause increasing clouds, and spotty showers to reach parts of the valley by morning on Tuesday. Scattered showers will become increasingly likely through the day, with thunderstorms possible during the mid to late afternoon hours.
 
The further south you go… the better the chance for storms, and even the threat of a strong to severe T-Storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Service has areas south of I-84 in a marginal risk (less than 5% chance) of severe weather on Tuesday. We’re not anticipating severe weather in the Hudson Valley, largely due to the expectation of low clouds and scattered rain showers. This should help stabilize the atmosphere in our area… enough to prevent severe weather anyway. We could certainly still see a T-Storm or two, mixing in with the scattered showers.
 
There are still some details to work through, but Tuesday’s weather looks rather unsettled for sure. Anyone with outdoor plans, will want to check back for more info as we get closer.
 
Have a great Monday!