Monday Discussion : Fine September Finish

Our final day of September will feature a seasonable fall day around the region, with a mix of clouds and sun… and highs around 70°. The flow shifts out of the SW tomorrow, and that will drive highs up near 80°. Depending on just how far north the warm front gets on Wednesday, we could see record heat… with highs possibly in the mid 80s. We’ll have to keep an eye on the details.

Things get much cooler late week, with a taste of fall coming to the region. Highs will struggle to hit 60° with multiple chances at rain showers. We’ll have to keep an eye on the potential for our first frost next weekend.

An early autumn weather roller coaster coming our way. Have a good start to the week!

Weekend Outlook : Summer Start, Fall Finish

Our stretch of summer weather continues for one more day, as SW winds ahead of a cold front are bringing us warm and slightly humid air.  It will feel like summer around the region, under a partly cloudy sky.  Afternoon highs in the low 80s are likely.

We will see some scattered light rain showers try to develop toward sunset and into the evening hours.  If you have plans this evening, be aware of the slight risk.

Sunday looks outstanding, with mostly sunny skies returning, and a cooler NW breeze.  Highs on Sunday around 70 degrees, are right where we should be for the end of September.  With this extended stretch of great outdoor weather, rain has been hard to come by.  That has led to increasingly dry conditions around the region.  Make sure you’re aware and paying attention if you’re having a BBQ or doing anything that may have use of an open flame… as the combination of dry conditions, and falling leaves, will increase fire danger around the Hudson Valley.

Otherwise, we hope you have a wonderful start to the weekend!

Thursday Discussion : Drought Concerns

With all this gorgeous weather of late, and the lack of any meaningful rainfall… we’ve seen some concern about the need for rainfall in the Hudson Valley.

So we have two maps, first is the latest drought monitor update. Indications are that parts of the Catskills are abnormally dry, but none of the Hudson Valley… in fact none of NY State is considered to be in drought conditions at this time, which is good news.


The second map shows the rainfall amounts compared to average over the last 60 days. The Hudson Valley has seen between 50% and 75% of normal rainfall since late July, and that amounts to being between 2 and 4 inches below normal over that time.

It certainly has been dry, and we could use rainfall around the region. The good news, is that so far, conditions are not severe… and as we turn the calendar into the month of October, we should begin to see more chances of rain, as the warm pattern appears likely to break down as the seasons begin to change.

Wednesday Discussion : Summer Pattern Holds

Our summer like start to the fall will continue today, as warmer air tries to push northward once again. After a cold front pushed winds out of the NW for Tuesday… keeping temps in the low 70s for highs… winds will gradually turn back around out of the SW today. That will allow afternoon temps today to push back into the mid and upper 70s around the Hudson Valley. A very nice day for any outdoor activities.
 
Another weak cold front approaches for Thursday, which could touch off a few afternoon showers as the front moves through. Nothing heavy, but a shower or two can’t be ruled out. Highs ahead of the front should climb into the mid 70s… before temps fall a bit late in the day.
 
Our summer-like pattern looks likely to continue for the next week or so. We’ll see multiple cold fronts try to attack the ridge of high pressure over the eastern US… but the ridge keeps winning the fight, building back each time. In terms of weather… that translates into above average temperatures in the mid to upper 70s… followed by a day or two of cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s… before temps warm once more. This looks like a rather dry, but rather nice pattern… for anyone with outdoor plans. We’ll share an update as we get closer to the weekend, but this warm and dry pattern is likely to carry us through the weekend.
 
Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Stubborn Summer Weather

By the time we wake up on Monday, we’ll officially be in autumn… as fall kicks off at 3:50am around the region.  But despite the calendar insisting that fall begins on Monday… the weather will feel much more like summer.  Heat and humidity will surge back into the mid and upper 80s for highs Monday afternoon.   That will feel roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year.  Buckle up for a hot and humid start to autumn around the Hudson Valley.

We’ll track a weak frontal boundary pushing through, that could touch off a couple showers… even a thundershower Monday late afternoon and evening.  If you have plans, best to be ready for the potential of a brief rain delay.  But in general… most of us stay dry, followed by a cooling air mass for Tuesday.  Hope everyone had a great start to the week.

Weekend Outlook: Stellar Summer Finish

If you had to design the perfect final weekend of summer… you would be hard pressed to create a better weekend than what we’ve got lined up today and tomorrow.

High pressure dominates the weather picture across the eastern US, and that means abundant sunshine and blue skies locally in the Hudson Valley, both Saturday, and Sunday.  After several chilly nights with lows dipping into the upper 30s in many places… summer heat makes a comeback.  Highs on Saturday will likely hit 80 degrees in most areas, with comfortable humidity levels.  Sunday, the final day of summer, the heat and humidity crank up just a bit more… with highs in the mid 80s, and slightly more humidity.

Even with the increasing heat and humidity, it’s not going to be oppressive or terribly uncomfortable.  But for anyone looking to enjoy the final weekend of summer, with some true summer weather… you couldn’t ask for better weather!  We hope everyone has an awesome weekend, and please let us know what exciting events are going on around the region in the comments below. ?

Sunday Discussion : Humberto Stays Away

Fog and low clouds will gradually burn off today, and leave us with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Highs this afternoon should climb well into the 70s… possibly hitting 80° in some places.

To update the tropical concern highlighted the other day. Tropical Storm Humberto has developed and now has maximum sustained winds of 60mph. This storm developed rather unexpectedly, and rather quickly. Model guidance didn’t discover that Humberto would materialize until late in the week, and some of the first guidance on Humberto took it right up the east coast.

Well the good news for the eastern coast of the United States, is that Humberto should stay safely off shore, and begin to turn east over the next 24 to 48 hours. Then it should track steadily NE toward Bermuda. Residents of Bermuda need to keep a close eye on Humberto, as guidance has it tracking very close by Wednesday evening. It could approach as a cateogory 2 or 3 storm, if conditions continue to be favorable for development. So we’ll keep an eye on the situation over the coming days.

Locally… the weather looks great for all Sunday afternoon activities. Hope everyone enjoys this mid-September Sunday!

Saturday Afternoon Discussion: 4pm Radar Update

Our gray Saturday has become a soggy Saturday for many parts of the region.  A batch of rain showers has pushed into the region, focused in Dutchess and Columbia Counties.  We’ll continue to see scattered light rain showers and patchy areas of drizzle moving from west to east through the Hudson Valley.  The shower threat will continue this evening, with conditions improving by sunrise on Sunday.

Friday Discussion : Watching Tropics

We are now watching what may become Tropical Storm Humberto, it will unfortunately impact the NW Bahamas today into tomorrow, including most of the areas recovering for Dorian. Beyond that we are looking at another slow moving tropical system crawling just off shore.

The sea surface temps along this route are still very much cooled down from the upwelling of the ocean caused by Dorian, we can only hope that will lessen this storm from reaching its full potential. It’s to soon to say what the storm will do beyond this period, all interests along the eastern seaboard will once again need to stay tuned.