Friday Discussion : No End in Sight

Winter’s brief return to the Hudson Valley has added quite the chill to the region. Strong west winds gusting over 30mph at times are going to make temps in the low to mid 30s feel more like the mid 20s… both Friday and Saturday afternoon. We could even see a few snow flurries, or a brief snow shower on Saturday around the region (especially in the Catskills).
 
The cold holds on for the first day of March on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s… and wind chills in the 20s… under mostly sunny skies. But by Monday, winds shift around to the SW and milder air returns to the region for the start of the work week… with highs back into the upper 40s and low 50s. The first half of the week will see highs likely in the 50s, as a couple weak pieces of energy spread rain showers around the region.
 
The overall mild pattern continues… with no true end in sight.  Just these little brief interruptions of cold air.  Have a great Friday afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion : Pea Soup on the Menu

Late Morning Discussion

The weather continues to be exceedingly mild for February. After a gorgeous day on Monday, clouds and scattered showers rolled in on Tuesday, and now we’re stuck in ‘pea soup’ for our Wednesday.

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The radar reflects as much, with the image showing a few spotty rain showers in the northern Hudson Valley, and patchy drizzle and fog around the rest of the region. This will continue to be the story through the afternoon and evening, with a light SE wind and temperatures in the low to mid 40s on average.

As the storm passes by to our north tonight, the cold front will approach around midnight. This will mean increasing number and intensity of rain showers around the Hudson Valley after midnight. A period of soaking moderate to heavy rain is likely between 12am and 6am… even a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out. So a stormy morning commute may be an issue, as the front will be moving through just around sunrise.

Behind that, the winds will howl out of the west. Expect a very windy Thursday around the region, with clearing skies. Temps will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday, before tumbling in the afternoon. But you might want to secure any loose objects this afternoon… because things will really be gusty during the afternoon on Thursday.

Have a great Wednesday!!

Digging Through Data : What Happened to Winter?

It’s beginning to feel like we’re not needed.  As if Hudson Valley Weather can shut down operations, pack up our stuff, and get on the next train out of the region.  Winter, has simply been a figment of our imagination.  Normal February snowfall in Poughkeepsie, is 12.8 inches for the month.  As of this post… Poughkeepsie has 0.9″ of snowfall in February…

This is pretty incredible.  A whopping 0.9″ of snow for the month of February so far… and lets be up front, the odds of accumulating snowfall in Poughkeepsie prior to March 1st, are not very good at all.  So it’s entirely conceivable that the map above will not change much by the end of February.

Where has all the snow been?  Well… let’s look at temperatures since the start of 2020.  What have the temperatures looked like for January and February so far?…

The picture is beginning to look clearer by the moment.  Temperatures for the first 53 days of 2020 are running roughly 6.5° above average.  January finished 7.5° above average at the Poughkeepsie reporting station, and the month of February after 21 days, is 5.5° above average.  It’s going to be extremely difficult to get any accumulating snowfall when temperatures are this warm.  December was near average… both in terms of temperatures (0.2° above average) and snowfall (10.9″… 2.2 inches above average).  But ever since December ended… winter has been no where to be found. When we look at the Meteorological winter as a whole, it’s ultimately about +4.1°.  The Poughkeepsie historical average for meteorological winter (Dec., Jan., Feb.) is 28.8°.  That puts this winter currently at the 9th warmest winter on record (as of 2/19/20).   

 

Since we turned the calendar to 2020, we’ve seen a stunningly low 3.5″ of snow in Poughkeepsie.  Normally over that time we should have seen 24.7″ of snow.  Meaning so far in Janauary and February, we’ve seen a measley 14.1% of our average snowfall.  So when we stack this winter up against the last 29 years… how does it shake out?

If the winter ended today, this winter would be the 3rd least snowy winter in roughly the last 30 years.  In 2015-2016, a meek 10.4″ of snow fell in Poughkeepsie, in the winter of 94-95 a meager 12.0″ of snow fell in Poughkeepsie.  So far this winter… only 14.4″ of snow has fallen in Poughkeepsie.  That’s almost 30″ below the average of 42.71″ in Poughkeepsie.  So while this winter isn’t the record warmest, or record lowest in terms of snowfall… it’s clearly, starkly, well below average in snowfall… and above average in terms of temperature.

This winter has not gone the way we anticipated back in the fall.  So many variables have not unfolded as expected, that it will take quite some time to determine why it’s been so warm this winter.  But no matter how the pattern shakes out for the remaining month or so of winter, we will be here with you to break down the details and forecast it with you.  Thank you for your continued support!

Weekend Outlook : Mild Pattern Continues

Winter returned for a couple days on Thursday and Friday… with temperatures actually a couple degrees below average.  But as we’ve seen so many times this winter… it didn’t last for long, and our weekend weather will witness a return of milder temperatures.  Highs on Saturday climbed into the 40s, under a mostly sunny sky.  As we look at Sunday… it looks like more of the same, with highs climbing into the low 50s for the lower half of the region!  That’s roughly 10° above average for this time of year… something we’ve said numerous times over the past 2 months.

As we look forward into the final week of February, don’t expect many changes.  Mild air will carry us into Monday and Tuesday, before our next storm system approaches for mid week.  Some colder air will try to work into the system, but likely not until the back end of the storm is pushing through.  So once again, this means likely a rain event for the Hudson Valley.  If this happens… Poughkeepsie might not even get to 1″ of snow for the entire month.  Incredible stuff.

At least plans won’t be interfered with by the weather… that’s the bright side to this incredibly mild air.  Have a great weekend.

Tuesday Discussion : Minimal Commute Impacts

On Monday we had highlighted the slight potential for a period of wet snow during the Tuesday AM commute. There will be an approaching frontal system on Tuesday… but we DO NOT anticipate widespread issues for the morning rush hour.

A glance at the futurecast radar map for 8am shows the main area of snow expected to be west of the Hudson Valley. A few pockets of light snow are possible around the region, especially in the Catskills… but these pockets of light snow will be scattered, and likely to be on the back end of the commute… after most of the travel to work and school is complete. So the commute for most is dry, and where snow showers do fall, we don’t expect problems (Catskills could have a few snowy spots).

Early morning (8am) temperatures in the valley will be near freezing (below freezing in the Catskills). With the main area of precipitation not arriving until mid/late morning… by that point, temps in the valley will be above freezing, and instead of wet snow… rain showers are likely for all but the higher elevations of the Catskills. Just one more chapter in the book of a non winter around the Hudson Valley.

Monday Discussion : Eyes on Tuesday AM Commute

Happy President’s Day, Hudson Valley.  A quiet start to the work week… even though many people have the day off.  Highs climb into the low 40s, under a partly cloudy sky.  Monday evening, temps will fall below freezing once again… into the mid 20s.  We’ll then see clouds increase, and then have one eye toward the Tuesday AM commute.

Futurecast Radar : Tuesday 4am to 7pm

On this particular simulation… it suggests that the temperatures from I-84 on north could be cold enough as the precipitation arrives, for wet snow to fall.  The timing would be between 5am and 8am, and if the temperatures are near or below freezing… we could have some issues on the roads.  This doesn’t look likely to be a widespread, high probability event… but its something to watch as we get closer.  Temps will be rising with a SE wind Tuesday morning… but if the timing is just right, we could see a couple hours of snowy and icy conditions for the northern half of the valley.

The elevation snow shows up fairly well on this snow map.  Temps in the valley are so marginal, maybe a slushy coating can be found… but as you go up in elevation, that’s where snow could stick if the timing of things is just right.  Once again… we’ll keep our eye on this.  Just something to make everyone aware of as a potential situation for the Tuesday AM commute.

Hope everyone has a great Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Winter Still Missing

Another rather mild, mid-February day around the region… as our snow-free winter continues.

Mostly cloudy skies with afternoon highs into the low 40s across the valley, are about 3 to 5 degrees above average.  Temps will be slightly cooler in the Catskills, but not much of a chill will be found there either.  If we look forward into the work week, temps should persist to climb into the low 40s during the afternoon… and fall into the 20s overnight.  Our next shot at precipitation arrives on Tuesday.  Temps may be cold enough for wet snow to fall at the onset of the precipitation… but most of the valley should be plain rain by late morning.

Behind the front, temps will drop again into the upper 20s to low 30s for afternoon highs for the end of the week.  But in terms of chances for accumulating snow… nothing substantial on the horizon for the next few days.  Enjoy your Sunday Afternoon!

Weekend Outlook : Cold and Dry

Happy Saturday, Hudson Valley!  We had a bitter start to the day, and not much moderation is expected this afternoon.

Cold Canadian high pressure has settled in, and the result was morning temperatures between 10 and 20 degrees below average.  Morning lows in the single digits to around 10°, made for one of the coldest mornings we’ve seen among a mild winter.  Starting out this cold will make it hard for temperatures to reach the freezing mark today.  Afternoon highs are projected to reach right around 30°, about 8 to 10 degrees below average for mid February.  So we’ll clearly need the winter weather gear.

But as the weekend progresses, the winds will shift around to the SW on Sunday, and that will see the milder air return to the region once again.  Temps should climb into the low and mid 40s on Sunday, which is about 3 to 5 degrees above average.

So while Saturday morning and Saturday was very frosty… temps will moderate this weekend, and be above average once more by the start of the work week.  By Tuesday, our next weather system will approach from the west.  The low pressure is likely to pass north of the Great Lakes, which would allow mild air into the Hudson Valley… and we all know what that means.  Snow changing to a mix of rain and snow, or plain rain showers.  Something for us to keep our eye on as we get closer…

Where will we go in the longer term?  We’ll try to take a look at that in a separate post shortly, looking at the pattern that should take us through the end of February, and into March.  Hopefully everyone has great plans for the weekend, enjoy… and stay warm!

Refreeze Tonight

Just a quick post to highlight the potential for areas of black ice tonight as temps drop below freezing, if you did see some snow and sleet today it would be best to get it cleaned up or be prepared to deal with ice for a few days… Below is tonights lows, followed by tomorrow’s high’s, as you can see there isn’t any thaw occurring over the next 48 hours… Stay warm and enjoy our two days of actual Feburary weather…