Thursday Discussion : Wind Soaked Rain

A wet and windy 24 hours ahead. 
A look at the Thursday morning radar, and you can see a distinct band of soaking rainfall off to our west, located over west/central PA and western NY.  Locally over the Hudson Valley (located in lower right hand portion of image), you’ll see rapidly moving scattered rain showers developing over top of us, and moving northward.  These scattered showers and localized downpours will continue to develop over the next several hours… and move quickly from south to north.  These showers will be accompanied by blustery SE winds gusting over 30mph at times, which will help give us temps in the mid to upper 50s.
As we go into this evening, that band of heavy rain will push eastward… and reach into the Hudson Valley between 7pm and 11pm.  At that point, we expect moderate to heavy rain for several hours, tapering off to scattered showers by morning on Friday.  During that time… 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible.  Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region.  So a very unsettled 24 hours lies ahead of us.
Friday looks unsettled and cloudy, with the threat of scattered showers at times.  Before things improve greatly on Saturday and Sunday, with temps surging into the upper 60s and low 70s!  So we’ve got a nice reward for making it through this ugly 3 day stretch of weather.  Stay dry, stay safe… and stay healthy.  Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Buckets of Rain Next 3 Days

Well, after 1 nice day around the region… we’re back to what we’ve become accustomed to in the Hudson Valley. Wednesday will be cloudy and cool, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Scattered showers and patchy drizzle are possible. On Thursday, we’ll see the winds increase out of the southeast… with increasing scattered showers, out ahead of a storm system approaching from the Midwest. Thursday during the day, the story will be more the wind than the rain… with gusts over 30mph. But late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, we’ll see periods of moderate to heavy rain.

This map shows the projected rainfall from the National Weather Service WPC. Widespread rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches… with locally 3″+ in the Catskills. The scattered showers last with us on Friday, as the system is slow to exit the region… so expect clouds and scattered showers straight through Friday.

The weekend however, does look more promising. The sun will try to return on Saturday, and should be bright and beautiful for Sunday. Temps should respond very well behind this system… into the 60s on Saturday, and possibly the low 70s on Sunday! Let’s cross our fingers and hope that this holds, and actually comes to pass. Have a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Sunshine and Seasonable

Sunshine and blue skies have returned to the region… if only for a day.  Expect lots of sunshine, mixing with a few afternoon clouds.  Afternoon highs should reach into the low 60s in the valley.  Still a few degrees below average… but MUCH better than the recent chill we’ve seen.  If you can find a way to get outside and enjoy the weather… go for it!  Clouds and drizzle will return for our Wednesday, even a few scattered afternoon showers are likely.  Clouds and drizzle mean chilly temps in  between 50° and 55° are likely.  So enjoy the nice weather while you can!  Have a great afternoon!

Sunday Discussion: Raw Rain and Wind

As nice as our weather was on Saturday… the tables have turned on this Sunday around the region, and a chilly rainfall has replaced the mild sunshine from yesterday.

The latest radar shows the heaviest rain located over the Catskills, but periods of light to moderate rain showers continue to push into the Hudson Valley from south to north. This radar image likely won’t change much for the next several hours… so make sure you have the rain gear if heading outside. Temps around the region are in the 40s… with some mid and upper 30s in the Catskills. Temps will slowly tumble over the next 12 hours, as our winds intensify out of the NE, funneling in some colder air to the valley.

Tonight, we will see light rain and drizzle around the region, with some wet snow mixing in above 1500 feet. Once you get above 2000 feet, we could see some snow accumulation, but those areas are used to this kind of setup. For the overwhelming majority of us, it’s a cold rain that will last into Monday.

On Monday, expect a cold, raw day around the region. Low clouds and drizzle will hold on across the valley. Some scattered showers will be possible through the day. Temperatures will struggle into the low and (if we’re lucky) mid 40s for highs on Monday… over 20 degrees below average. A very raw day lined up for Monday.

So while April showers do bring May flowers… we wish they could do so at 60 degrees instead of 40 degrees. But we will deal with whatever we’re given. We hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy. Have a nice Sunday afternoon!

Thursday Discussion : Cloudy, Damp, and Cold

Some light moisture moving through the region this morning will touch off some rain or wet snow showers this morning.

The band of moisture will push north of our region in the next hour or two… leaving us mainly cloudy today. A rather raw day ahead… with highs pinned down in the mid 40s with the low clouds and spotty moisture.

We’ll see rain move in tonight, and the rain will last into Friday morning. A soggy start to our Friday, with some potential to dry our Friday afternoon. Full details are on the website. Have a great Thursday.

Wednesday Discussion : Blustery Wintry Winds

The strong cold front pushed through Tuesday afternoon, spreading rain showers into the Hudson Valley.  As the wind sheer amplified in the lower HV, we saw some strong thunderstorms with small hail and gusts over 40mph.  A sign that spring is trying its best to make its presence felt… but so far, coming up short.

That will be evident once again on Wednesday, as it will feel more like early to mid March rather than late April.  The average high is 64° on Wednesday, and we’ll struggle to reach the upper 40s.  Yet again, that will find us a good 15° below average in the region.  Add to the picture, a howling NW wind, and it will make for real feel temps in the 30s.

Does this look like spring to you?  The chill will be with us through the weekend.  Along with several bouts of rain.  So hopefully spring will find its way into the Hudson Valley before too long.  But it’s not in a rush.  Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Rain Showers and Potential Damaging Wind Gusts

Another wild weather afternoon likely on the horizon for the Hudson Valley.  A very strong cold front for mid April is pushing into the region.  This will spread strong winds and rain showers into the region.  We have a Wind Advisory in spots for the wind gusts up to 50mph.
We have the severe weather outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), as well as the 11am radar.  The SPC highlights the potential for damaging wind gusts, giving us up to a 15% chance of damaging gusts.  The radar however, does not look overly impressive. 
We’ve got rain showers moving into the Hudson Valley by mid day, accompanied by gusty winds.  But an intense squall line is not showing at this point, and with the clouds and showers ahead of the potential squall line… it’s going to be hard to develop a line of severe thunderstorms.  So we’re thinking the SPC’s 15% chance of damaging wind gusts is probably half that high.
That said, we want to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.  So there is a chance we see strong to severe wind gusts, accompanied by thunder and lightning.  The timing on this would be between 1pm and 4pm.  Behind the front, it turns much colder and windy.  Have a good afternoon!

Monday Discussion : Quiet Start to the Week

A quiet start to the work week, as a storm system passes by to our southeast.

The storm pushing northeast over the ocean will spread clouds into the region.  Winds will intensify out of the northeast, but otherwise this storm will stay off shore and not impact the Hudson Valley.  Temps should top out around 50°.  Clouds will give way to afternoon sun.  On Tuesday, we’ll see another storm system push in from the northwest, as another strong cold front from Canada pushes in.  It appears the system will drag a cold front through the Hudson Valley during the mid afternoon hours… and the result could be a line of thunderstorms that kick off some gusty winds and localized downpours.  We’ll be monitoring the timing and potential… but it looks like between 2pm and 6pm will be the most likely timing on the event.

Behind that, the cold returns once more… before temps begin to moderate once again by the end of the week.

April Snowfall Recap

An interesting weather weekend in the books, where much of the northern half of the Hudson Valley saw accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday.  Almost all of us saw a period of snow Saturday morning, even in places where nothing accumulated.  Here’s a quick look at the outcome of that system…

When it snows on April 17th, air temperatures and ground temperatures are just too warm for most places to see snow fall from the sky, let alone accumulate.  You can see the Hudson River valley outlined very clearly on this map.  The higher the elevation, the more snow you saw… and the further north from I-84, the better the chances it accumulated on unpaved surfaces.  Unless something very unexpected comes down the road… this should be the final accumulating snow for the 19-20 season.

We hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.  Have a good start to your week!

April Snow! Snowfall Forecast Map

Ok… we’re in.
We’ve really been reluctant to put a snowfall map out, because it’s April 17th, and everything needs to go right for accumulating snowfall in the Hudson Valley.  But it looks like we’ll get enough to break our way tonight, that most locations from I-84 on north will see accumulating snowfall.
Catskills (Zone 1,2) : 3 to 8 inches
S. Catskills, Gunks Taconics (Zone 4,5,6) : 2 to 6 inches
Mid & Upper Hudson Valley (Zone 3,7) : 1 to 4 inches
Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 8,9) : Coating (above 1000ft 1″ to 3″)
The precipitation is starting in the Hudson Valley at this hour, and will overspread the entire region between 7pm and 10pm.  Temps at the onset will be 38° to 42°… so it starts as light rain in the valley and elevations below 1000 feet.  But as the precipitation becomes steadier, it pulls the colder air down from aloft, and temps around the region from I-84 on north, will settle in between 32° and 36°.  Cold enough to support wet snow… and the snow could fall moderate to heavy at times tonight near midnight.
In the Catskills, it’s all snow, and the snow will accumulate on all surfaces.  Travel conditions above 1000 feet will be very treacherous.  In the southern Catskills and Shawangunk and Taconic mountains, snow covered roads are likely before midnight, causing very slick travel conditions as well.
In the Mid and Upper Hudson Valley it’s going to be interesting to watch.  Temps will remain at or above freezing, so snow will stick primarily to unpaved surfaces for a while.  But as the snow intensifies, we could see snow covered roads below 1000 feet, even into the valley areas.  Temps will be crucial to whether snow is able to accumulate in the lower elevations.  All guidance now suggests snow accumulates at least on unpaved surfaces north of I-84.  And as hard as it may be to believe… a few inches of wet snow are likely north of I-84 overnight.
Areas from I-84 on south will be a battle between rain and wet snow for much of the night, as temps hover between 34° and 38°.  A slushy coating to maybe 1″ is possible on grass in parts of Putnam and central/southern Orange county.  If you go up in elevation, above 1000′ to 1500’… even in Orange and Putnam counties 1 to 3 inches are possible.
We’ve had some questions about power outages, and it is something that needs to be considered… especially in the upper Hudson Valley and Catskills.  This is a wet snow for everyone, and those areas are likely to see the most accumulation.  This isn’t a major late season snowstorm, so widespread outages are not a concern for the moment… but these spring snow events are wildly unpredictable, so we’ll have to see how it unfolds.  Luckily… most of us are not going anywhere tonight… so travel should be at a minimum.  Be safe out there, anyone who must travel.  We’ll certainly have more to come tonight

Friday Discussion : Winter Slaps Back

Winter never really came… now it won’t go away.  Ah, 2020, we love you so…

Some very unseasonably cold air is in place, setting the stage for a late season winter rally on Friday night.  Normally we publish a snowfall map, but since it is mid April, and we have such a hair thin margin for error, and since where it snows it will accumulate primarily on unpaved surfaces, we’re going to hold off on a traditional snow map for now.  Here’s what our basic thinking continues to be at this time…

It’s possible that we may issue a snowfall map Friday afternoon… before the event begins, if we feel the situation warrants it.  But lets take a look at our futurecast radar for 8pm on Friday…

Temperatures at the onset will hover around 40°, so a mix or just plain rain is likely in the valley at the onset.  Temps will tumble into the 30s… and the precipitation will intensify.  That’s when the battle begins to be waged.  The boundary line will be somewhere in the vicinity of I-84… likely between I-84 and Poughkeepsie.  Locations where temps are just 2 or 3 degrees cooler than the lower elevation valley… that’s where the snow will fall, and if you can see the ‘close up’ of the Hudson Valley in the image above… it’s raining in Kingston, but snowing in New Paltz, raining in Poughkeepsie, but snowing near Fishkill.  So it’s all a question of location and elevation, and without much rhyme or reason.  This is part of the reason we’re not super confident about exact snow totals, and why a slushy coating to an inch or two is probably the best bet in most areas north of I-84… but some colder locations could see 3 or 4 inches of wet snow accumulate.  The Catskills… certainly could see upward of 5 or 6 inches.

As we near midnight, you can see moderate to heavy snow in many locations north of I-84… and mainly rain from I-84 south… and kind of a mix depending on your location in places from Poughkeepsie to Kingston and New Paltz.

So we’ll be watching and tracking this as we get closer to the start Friday night, and likely cover it as it unfolds Friday night.  We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe!