Weekend Roundup : Beautiful End to May

A beautiful back half of the weekend… and our final day of May… across the Hudson Valley.  A mix of sunshine and fair weather clouds, with a NW breeze for our afternoon, and similar conditions on Monday.  Afternoon highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s.  A touch cool for this time of year, but certainly some fine spring weather.
The most notable weather story for the next 36 hours will likely be the overnight low temperatures Sunday night.  Lows around the Hudson Valley will fall in to the low and mid 40s… with some upper 30s in the Catskills.  If the conditions are ideal… a few upper 30s in the northern half of the Hudson Valley would not surprise us.  A very chilly night lined up.  From there, things look rather quiet until late on Tuesday, where a few scattered showers are possible into Tuesday night. 
 
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday afternoon!!

Friday Discussion : Humid With Storm Threat

The humidity is definitely spiking on this final Friday of May.  But we have a cold front approaching from the northwest, and it will clash with the warm and humid air in the Hudson Valley.  Temperatures around the region are in the upper 70s and low 80s… and dew points are in the low 70s… making for a very muggy feel to the air.  That will give us the threat of severe weather later today around the region…

In terms of the severe threat, the Hudson Valley is divided in half.  Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe weather… a few scattered T-storms are possible especially as we approach evening.  Because the storms will be coming from the west… our eastern viewing areas have a lower risk for severe weather.  That’s because the storm threat doesn’t hit until the heating of the day is lost.  Here’s the futurecast simulation for this afternoon and evening…

The threat for severe weather remains rather low… but we’ll have to keep tabs on the situation as the evening unfolds.

 

Thursday Discussion : Clouds and Humidity

Lots of clouds and lots of humidity… that’s the story for our Thursday.  A southerly flow out ahead of an approaching storm system is giving us humid air off the Atlantic Ocean.  That’s providing the low clouds and threat of spotty rain showers and drizzle… that will be with us through Friday.
 
Those clouds are also serving to keep us cooler than other parts of the northeast.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s, but with the high humidity, it will feel quite sticky around the region.
Friday looks very similar, with lots of clouds, but possibly more breaks of sun than on Thursday… due to a slight shift in the wind direction to more SW than SE.  That could allow temps to jump toward 80° for an afternoon high on Friday.  But also means that we’ll need to keep an eye out for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  The chances of a storm will rise as the approaching cold front nears Friday evening… so we’ll have our eyes on that.
 
Behind the cold front, a cooler and much less humid air mass moves in… with sunshine and clouds expected for Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  Highs both days likely approaching 70°… putting us in line for a rather nice weekend.
 
Have a great Thursday!

Weekend Discussion : Finally!!! Sunshine and Seasonable

A picture perfect Sunday around the Hudson Valley. Brilliant sunshine and blue skies should be the story today. After a chilly start, temps should warm into the low 70s around the region. For Memorial Day, we’ll see similar conditions… pushing temperatures into the low and possibly mid 70s! Some great weather for the Hudson Valley region, after a month that’s featured snow just 2 weeks ago. Have a great Sunday!!

Weekend Discussion : Unsettled Start, Better Finish

After a rather decent week of weather, things will take a turn just in time for the weekend.  A weak disturbance along the coast will spread clouds and scattered rain showers into the northeast for our Saturday.  We don’t expect a washout, but the threat of a showers will be with us through evening.

Saturday Radar Simulation : 6am to 8pm

Saturday evening the showers should taper, and skies should clear with a northeasterly flow.  Temps overnight should fall into the upper 40s.  That sets the stage for a decent Sunday.  Partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with a NE breeze… and highs around 70°.  A very nice improvement from Saturday’s unsettled weather.  Finally as we look toward the Memorial Day holiday, clouds mixing with sunshine, and temperatures again around 70°… not too bad all things considered.  So if you’re hoping to have a little BBQ outdoors, you should be good for that.

Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy… have a great weekend!

Weekend Wrap Up: Unsettled Weather Ahead

Hope everyone is enjoying the tail end of a fantastic spring weekend. Sunshine, high clouds, and a light SE breeze. Temps around the region are in the upper 60s (Catskills) and low 70s in the valley.

As we head into the work week… an upper level low pressure gets trapped over the eastern US. It will mean multiple days of unsettled weather. Scattered showers are possible tonight, with those unsettled conditions and spot showers being possible on Monday. At this point, it looks like the steady rain will be to our south and west… but upper level lows are unpredictable. Conditions should slowly and gradually improve by mid week. Not ideal weather, but surely not the cold and snow we saw last weekend! Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and start of your work week.

Friday Discussion : Late Severe Threat

If it feels like it was only a week ago that we were talking about snow… well, it was.

But on this Friday, it’s not snow that we have to worry about… it’s severe weather.  We’ll outline the threat, and then give our thoughts.

This is what the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center thinks the threat looks like for Friday night.  A low pressure system will drag a cold front across the northeast.  The relatively warm and moist air in the Hudson Valley (highs likely in the low 80s), will set the stage for some strong to severe thunderstorms as the front approaches.  The severe threat with these storms will include:
– Damaging wind gusts over 50mph (up to 30% chance)
– Large Hail (<15% chance)
– Isolated Tornado (< 5% chance)

Timing of the front will be the key, because most of the storms will be fueled by the heat of the day.  So once the sun sets, the severe threat will gradually diminish.  Here’s a simulation of the front moving through.

HRRR Futurecast Simulation : 2pm to 2am

You can clearly see the line of storms packing a punch during the afternoon, but it weakens considerably by its arrival in the Hudson Valley.  This simulation has the storms reach the Catskills shortly after 8pm… and spread into the rest of the region between 8pm and 10pm.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning are possible.

But if this scenario plays out… the Hudson Valley very likely will escape the worst.  Here is another scenario with a similar outcome….

This snapshot for 8pm has the line of storms even slower than the first simulation.  As of 8pm, the storms don’t even appear in the Hudson Valley (lower right of image).  This would be good news for the region, because while some thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible… we would be spared any widespread severe threat.

With all of that said… in these situations, we always prepare for the worst… and hope for the best.  We’ll try to share updates as the day progresses on Friday.  But let’s take some good news out of this whole thing… Friday is going to be absolutely gorgeous… with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.  Hopefully some of you can get out and enjoy it!

Sunday Discussion : Happy Mother’s Day!

Happy Mother’s Day, HV Moms!!
 
After the snowy Saturday around the Hudson Valley, Mother Nature has allowed sunshine to return and mix with some fair weather clouds.  The NW winds are still howling… but the core of the cold air has shifted to our northeast, and that means temperatures have ‘surged’ all the way up to the upper 50s and even some low 60s.  That’s 15° to 20° above yesterday’s temperatures… but still a good 10° below the average for this time of year.
 
A storm system will move in tonight and Monday, spreading clouds and scattered showers across the region, with temps holding in the low to mid 50s.  Then once that system exits Monday evening, we’ll have to keep our eyes on overnight low temperatures once again… as we could dip near or slightly below freezing Monday night.
 
But for our Mother’s Day afternoon… we hope everyone is enjoying it as best they can!  Thank you to all the amazing moms around the region, working so hard to keep their families safe and healthy!  We hope you can find a way to relax and enjoy your day, just a little bit! 

Saturday Discussion : February in May


Well… how’s THIS for your mid day radar on ‘May 9th? Howling NW winds at 10 to 25mph, gusting over 35mph… with temperatures in the low to mid 30s in the Catskills… upper 30s to low 40s in the Hudson Valley… but wind chills in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

For the afternoon, expect the howling winds to continue, and a few snow flurries or even a snow squall can’t be ruled out in the valley. Where we see a snow squall, expect low visibility and very strong wind gusts. In the Catskills, expect snow showers and squalls through the afternoon, with a coating to an inch or two possible. Afternoon temps won’t move much… highs in the mid 30s for the Catskills, and low to mid 40s in the valley. Reminder… the average high for today in Poughkeepsie is 71 degrees. We’ll be 25 to 35 degrees below average today around the regions… making it feel more like early February. Bundle up, stay warm, and hold onto your hat!

Friday Discussion : May Chaos

A potential record breaking cold air mass on the way to the Hudson Valley… will set the stage for a potential snow event in the month of May.

The issue here, is that this is such an extreme event, that the computer guidance is all over the place on this setup.  The NAM model shown above is much warmer than what we saw just 24 hours ago.  The issue is that the boundary is projected to be further north, keeping milder air in the region, and slowing the progression of the arctic air into the Hudson Valley.  If this solution is correct, it’s a slushy coating on grass at most in the Hudson Valley.

However, the data is not in full agreement.  The GFS and European models both still suggest the colder solution… in addition, the most upgraded tool, the HRRR v4 is much colder than the HRRR v3.  It’s a difference of whether Poughkeepsie is closer to 48° at 9pm (like the HRRR v3 suggests) … or 34° at 9pm (per the HRRR v4).  That’s a whopping difference of 14° for the same tool, at the same hour… depending on whether you use the traditional HRRR, or the upgraded HRRR.

If the upgraded model is correct, a coating to 3 inches across much of the Hudson Valley is possible.  So we’ll have to see how things unfold Friday evening.  This is a very rare setup, a chance for accumulating snow in the Hudson Valley in May.  No matter what happens… expect Saturday’s weather to feel like the middle of winter.  Highs on Saturday only in the low 40s… but winds gusting over 35mph will make it feel like January!!

Updates as possible on Friday…