Tuesday Discussion : “Dog Days” Of Summer

Today will be another hot one throughout the Hudson Valley. Southern regions will see highs in the mid-80’s to near 90° with dew points in the low 70’s. As a result, a heat advisory is in effect for Orange, Putnam, Rockland & Westchester Counties, with heat indexes in the mid-90’s this afternoon. Northern areas will likely stay slightly cooler, especially in the Catskills, with highs near 80°.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of a cold front (30-40%). Timing appears to be anywhere between 1-7 pm. This will not be a widespread event and while most locations will stay dry, any storm that does form could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today as a storm or two may approach severe thresholds.

Enjoy your Tuesday!

Kyle

Monday Discussion : More Heat and Humidity

Mid summer heat across the Hudson Valley on this Sunday afternoon… with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
3pm Temperatures:
– Montgomery : 86° feels like 91°
– Poughkeepsie : 90° feels like 92°
– Newburgh : 88° feels like 89°
 
Temps tonight will not cool down too much, with lows in the low to mid 70s expected, with elevating humidity levels. That sets the stage for a hot and humid Monday around the region.
Clouds will mix with sunshine, and highs between 90° and 95° are expected. The humidity levels will increase a bit, making it feel like the mid 90s around the region. There is a roughly 30% to 40% chance of a broken line of late afternoon T-Storms to develop. We’ll have to monitor the threat as things unfold Monday. But we expect a hot and humid start to the week around the Hudson Valley.

Weekend Outlook : Get Out and Enjoy

Somehow, it’s the last weekend of July.  This time of year is statistically the hottest time of the year, with the average high being 85° in the Poughkeepsie area.  So when we look at the weather for this coming weekend, it looks like we’ll be a few degrees above average with comfortable humidity levels for the middle of summer.  Here are your projected high temperatures for NY state on Saturday, Sunday and Monday

Projected High Temperatures: Saturday, Sunday & Monday

You can see the Hudson Valley in the lower right quadrant of the graphic.  Highs in Poughkeepsie projected to be 89° Saturday, 91° on Saturday, and 92° on Monday.  The good news, is that with winds out of the west, humidity levels should be reasonably comfortable.  That means ‘real feel’ heat index values very close to the actual air temperature.  Each day looks to be rather dry, with hardly any rainfall projected by the European model.

So in short… it looks like a great summer weekend on tap for the Hudson Valley!  A fair amount of sunshine… slightly above average summer heat… and comfortable humidity levels.  If you have weekend plans, you should be very happy with what is in store.

Drought Situation

The last few months have been quite dry across the Northeast US.  Much of the rainfall has been dependent on summer afternoon T-Storms.  That means considerable variance from one area to the next.

You can see that the SW half of the Hudson Valley is not in a drought condition.  That’s due to recent rainfall from T-Storms, giving those areas near normal rainfall amounts over the past month or so.  However, the northeastern half of the valley has not seen as much of that rainfall, and is anywhere from abnormally dry, to even in a moderate drought condition as you head into NE Dutchess and Columbia counties.  With minimal rainfall expected over the next few days… that will only intensify drought conditions where it’s already being felt.

The good news, is that there may be some thunderstorms on Tuesday or Wednesday with a cold front.  But we’ll have to continue to monitor that situation as the weekend progresses.

Long Range Discussion

So far in the month of July, temperatures have been quite warm compared to average.  Not hot… but definitely 2° to 5° above average, during the statistically hottest time of the year.

Looking at the next 14 days, into early August… it appears that the focal point of the ridge in the jet stream could shift a bit further west.  This could shift temperatures closer to average for this time of year.

We’ll have to see how the details iron out… but the clear thing to state appears to be that we don’t expect a major cool down at this point.  Summer is here for the Hudson Valley, and while we don’t see any cooler than average weather, we also don’t see any intense heat waves in the next 2 weeks either.

Have a great weekend!!

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled Pattern Continues

Similar to yesterday, today will feature uncomfortably high humidity with a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms triggered by a cold front approaching from our west. More clouds than sunshine are expected today, but breaks of sunshine are likely to occur periodically throughout the day, which could cause locally high instability throughout portions of the Hudson Valley.

With temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and dew points in the mid-70s, heat indexes are expected to approach the mid-upper 90s in our southern locations while upper 80s-90° in northern locations, especially the Catskills. Along with very muggy conditions, these ingredients combined will result in a severe threat this afternoon.

Current model guidance suggests storms will begin to develop between 1-3 pm. Storms will move east southeast throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. The primary threats will be strong gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to ponding of water in low lying areas. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.

Below is a simulated radar for this afternoon (noon-11pm):

Today’s Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook:

Today’s projected 2 pm heat index values:

Wednesday Discussion : Heat, Humidity & Sct Afternoon T’storms

Another hot day with more humidity than yesterday is expected today across the Hudson Valley. Highs in the upper 80s, approaching 90° along with dew points in the low 70s will result in an uncomfortable air mass. Heat indexes will range anywhere between 90-95° in valley locations. The Catskills will remain slightly cooler with highs in the mid-80s.

Below are projected heat indexes at 4 pm today:

After a few showers late last night into early this morning, breaks of sunshine are expected, which will help further destabilize an already buoyant atmosphere, setting the stage for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds being the main threats. Current model guidance suggests storms will begin to move into western locations between 3-5 pm and will evolve eastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. While not everyone will experience severe weather today, always remember to stay weather aware.

Unfortunately, mugginess and unsettled weather will continue on Thursday, with another chance of afternoon/evening storms.

Below is a simulated radar for this afternoon/evening (1-11 pm):

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook:

 

Tuesday Discussion : More Heat, Slightly Less Humidity

We’re in what is statistically the hottest time of the year… so we guess it should come as no surprise that every day is right around 90°. Tuesday looks to be another classic summer day, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and afternoon highs around 90°. Tonight, we’ll see clouds increase… and scattered showers and thundershowers may be possible after midnight, lasting into the morning hours on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon once again looks to see highs in the mid to upper 80s, with high humidity. That could set the stage for late afternoon and evening T-Storms on Wednesday.
 
Hope everyone finds a good way to beat the heat. Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Uncomfortable Humidity Increases

The humidity is the highest it’s been with this heat wave so far… and so with temperatures at lunch time ‘only’ in the mid to upper 80s… the dew points in the low to mid 70s are making for ‘real feel’ heat index values in the mid and upper 90s through the valley. It’s a bit cooler in the hills and Catskills, but be sure to use caution through the afternoon… as the heat and humidity will be with us through the day.

Sunday Discussion : Heat Advisory in Effect

…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT…
…FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8PM EDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to 103 expected.
* WHERE…Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.
* WHEN…From noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS…High temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
 
HVW Commentary:
Not too much to add to the NWS Heat Advisory. We discussed this heat wave earlier in the week, and again on Friday… and now it’s here. Make sure to use considerable caution. This kind of heat can lead to heat exhaustion pretty rapidly if you’re not properly hydrated and taking proper breaks from rigorous activity. This will be the big story the next 2 days… with a small chance (less than 30%) of a late day T-storm to provide temporary relief.

Weekend Outlook : The Heat is On!

After a week of weather that saw some instability over the northeast, with clouds and drizzle starting our Friday off.  But as we look over the next few days, and into next week… the heat will be surging into the northeast, and Hudson Valley.

500mb Pattern (Jet Stream) – Friday through Thursday

You can see the large area of orange indicating a huge ridge of high pressure over the eastern US.  That will allow the heat to build quickly starting on Saturday.  The good news for Saturday, is that while we’ll see temps near 90° in the afternoon… the humidity levels should not be too oppressive.  However, that changes on Sunday, as humidity levels begin to elevate, along with the rising heat.  Sunday’s afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 90s… and here are the “real-feel” heat index values for Sunday.

The heat persists into Monday to start the work week, with highs projected in the low 90s once more.  But what will be noticeably worse on Monday, is the humidity.  Real feel temps will likely surge into the upper 90s on Monday, if the humidity projections are currently accurate.  We will keep an eye on that for another day or so… but the chance of a Monday high temperature of 92° with a heat index of 100° is a real possibility.  Make sure you plan for an oppressive Monday afternoon.

The heat and humidity will last into the work week, however we could get lucky Monday afternoon with a front pushing through.  That could give some heat relieving thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening… and then pull humidity levels down for the middle of the work week.  Even so… afternoon highs through mid week are likely to be in the upper 80s to near 90°.

It’s summer time… and for the next 7 days, it’s likely to feel every bit the middle of summer.  Have a great weekend, and be sure to drink plenty of water, and take breaks from the direct sun.  Heat exhaustion will be a possibility over the weekend if you don’t take care of yourself… so use caution and take it a little slow.

Tuesday Discussion : Seasonable Temps and Sun

Seasonably comfortable summer heat for the statistically hottest time of the year. A northwest wind will keep humidity in check, and keep temperatures from spiking much above the low 80s. A fine summer day for any activities you might have planned.
 
As we look to the remainder of the week, the wind shifts to the east and southeast, and that will allow more clouds and humidity into the picture for the 2nd half of the week. So while we don’t anticipate widespread rainfall… the chances for clouds and spotty rain showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday, in advance of what could be a pretty notable heat wave from Saturday through at least Monday of next week. A big ridge of high pressure will set up over the eastern US, and could allow for high heat and humidity, with temps in the mid 90s, and real feel temps near 100°. Something we’ll have to watch as we get closer for better details… but a hot weekend appears likely for the northeast and Hudson Valley.
 
Have a great Tuesday