After a prolonged period of warmer than average weather, we’re looking at some noticeable changes over the next 2 weeks. Let’s start off by looking at the month so far. First the Temperatures..
If we look at the Eastern US, you can see that the Hudson Valley was roughly 3 to 4 degrees above average for the first half of August. This should be no shock to most of us, as the heat has been in place consistently, with elevated humidity levels most of the time as well. In addition to the heat and humidity, most of the region remains very dry, and in need of rainfall. Even with Tropical Storm Isaias bringing considerable rainfall to the western HV and Catskills… we’re still dry for the summer as a whole. However, if we just look at the first half of August, it’s been very wet compared to average…
Soaking rainfall went right up the spine of the Catskills, as Tropical Storm Isaias definitely left it’s mark. Most of the rainfall seen in the first half of August, was a result of Isaias. So while this rain was helpful, we still could use some more to avoid drought conditions pushing into the month of September.
The 2nd Half of August
So what do we expect for the upcoming work week, as well as the rest of August? In short, dramatic differences compared to what we saw in the first half of the month. Remember, the first half of the month saw a persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern US, that allowed heat and humidity to be the dominant weather story. So let’s look at the projected Jet Stream for the 2nd half of the month.
Projected 500mb Pattern (Jet Stream) Next 10 Days : August 17th – August 27th
This is almost the polar opposite of what we saw the first half of the month. We should see a pretty deep trough over the eastern US for the coming 7 to 10 days. This should allow a cooler and drier flow of air, often out of Canada, to be the dominant air mass over the Hudson Valley and northeast. If we look at the projected temperatures compared to average over the next 7 days, you can see this reflected.
These temps may not look shockingly cool, and they are not… but they are the combined temps over 7 days, compared to average. So instead of uncomfortable heat and humidity, we’re more likely to have late summer temperatures and low humidity. Which could provide some very nice days for the 2nd half of August. We’ll have to see.
The downside could be a drier than normal pattern as well. The lower humidity levels will reduce the afternoon T-Storm threat, which minimizes our chances of rainfall for the 2nd half of August…
Over the next 7 days, rainfall amounts of 0.25″ to 0.50″ does not go a long way… as you can see on the left side of the graphic. On the right side, is how much below average these rainfall amounts are. So guidance is suggesting that we’ll see roughly 50% of average rainfall over the next 7 days. Which is not helpful when we factor in that we are dry across the region. Hopefully things will change over the next few days, and we’ll find a way to get some more moisture into the region.
So in short, the 2nd half of August appears likely to be near to slightly below average in terms of temperatures… with below average rainfall. That will likely translate into some beautiful days, with great outdoor weather. But at a time where measurable rainfall would be helpful, a little more rainfall on the guidance would be welcome.
We hope everyone has a great start to the work week! Thank you for your continued summer time support of HVW!