Wednesday Discussion : Breezy and Cooler

You can already feel a cooler, drier airmass moving in across the Hudson Valley in the wake of last night’s storm.  Low pressure moving along the frontal boundary will bring a brief but potentially intense period of gusty winds to parts of Westchester,Putnam and Dutchess Counties over the next 1-2 hours with gusts of 40-55mph possible. Outages are possible in these areas, post frontal winds will be 10-20 MPH’s elsewhere with some 30 MPH gusts across the Catskills, and should not create any widespread issues outside of the counties listed above.

 

Tuesday Discussion : Welcome Rain on the Way

Our humid weather pattern, with the persistent southerly flow, was likely to produce a decent amount of rainfall in the region this week.  The main uncertainty, was with regard to the details and the timing.  As always happens with the weather, the closer we get, the clearer the picture becomes.

A digging trough over the Great Lakes will spin up a low pressure along the frontal boundary in the Mid Atlantic.  That low pressure will race northeastward, and with it will come a considerable amount of welcome rainfall.  The system moves quickly, and by Wednesday, sunshine should return to the Hudson Valley, with cooler temps and less humid air in the wake.

Timing The Storm

  • Tuesday afternoon – scattered showers steadily increasing
  • 6pm to 10pm – localized heavier showers develop.  Downpours and thunder possible
  • 9pm to 3am – steady periods of rain likely, heavy at times
  • 2am to 6am – rain tapers off from south to north

You can see that expected rainfall amounts are likely a general 1 to 2 inches, with some locally higher rainfall amounts possible.  This should help relieve some of the dryness around the region.  Behind this system, we expect a cooler and dryer air mass to move in.  Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70°, and evening lows in the low 50s.  Our next shot at rain behind this storm appears to be on Friday, as another coastal storm will try to develop along the coastal trough.  Something we’ll need to monitor though the week.

Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Humid Week

Just 7 days ago, the Hudson Valley was waking up to bouts of frost and morning temperatures in the 30s.  Now, as we close out the final days of September, we’ve got a muggy and mild air mass in place, where overnight lows won’t get below 60°.  Early fall weather patterns can change sharply over a short period of time, and our current pattern is a good reminder of that.

As we look forward to this week, we expect the southerly flow to continue… and this will mean a humid and unsettled pattern will linger into the final days of September.

 

You can see as we look at the Monday afternoon weather map, that the low clouds and patchy areas of drizzle will hold strong over the eastern US.  A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will dig in, along a deep upper level trough.  Behind that low, is a some chilly autumn air.  However, out ahead of it, is a warm southerly flow.  That southerly flow is full of moisture, and will make for a rather muggy feel for this time of the year.

As the cold front gets closer, our chances of showers will increase steadily.  The shower threat on Wednesday and Thursday morning appears to be the highest, as surface low pressures are likely to form along the front.

You can see that guidance is suggesting low pressure develops and rides northward along the trough boundary.  The timing and position will need to be watched, to determine if the Hudson Valley sees a soaking rain Wednesday night… or if the rain is not further to the east.  For now, it appears that there could be 2 bouts of rain… the first during the morning hours on Wednesday, and the second (shown above), Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Total rainfall amounts between a half inch and an inch and a half, depending on the position of the heaviest rain.  We’ll see how things develop over the next day or two.

For now, everyone should prepare for a cloudy but humid feel to the end of September.  We hope everyone has a great start to the week!

Friday Discussion : Dry Pattern Continues

After a very cold start to the week, featuring the first frost of the season for many parts of the area… the past few days have been a welcome return to more seasonable warmth.  Highs in the 70s to near 80° have provided a comfortable reprieve from the early fall chill.  So as we look at the weekend, we expect that milder pattern to continue.  Our flow till be out of the south, which will give us highs in the 70s through the weekend, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

As we push into the weekend, the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta will push into the Mid Atlantic.  The most affects felt in the Hudson Valley will be some cloud cover on Friday and Saturday.  A spot shower or two can’t be ruled out, but the moisture associated with the remnants of Beta should stay mainly to our south.  So as we look straight through the weekend, we are likely to remain dry until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  We’ll track a large trough pushing into the eastern US, and with that, should be a decent storm that develops.  It should bring us the potential for a decent rainfall by mid week next week.  Until then, we should be mainly dry, with temperatures near or above average for this time of year.  So hopefully everyone can find a way to enjoy the final weekend of September.  Thanks for all the continued support!

 

Tuesday Discussion : One More Frosty Start

..FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
… FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY…
* WHAT…Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost formation.
* WHERE…Mid and Upper Hudson Valley.
* WHEN…From 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.
 
HVW Discussion : One more time, we’ve got frost advisories around the Hudson Valley. A light north wind and clear skies will allow temperatures to tumble from afternoon highs in the low 60s, down into the 40s during the evening hours, and into the mid 30s near sunrise. That could lead to some patchy areas of frost again Tuesday morning. Please plan accordingly.
 
Temps on Tuesday will moderate into the upper 60s and near 70° for afternoon highs, and Tuesday night will be milder, with lows in the mid 40s. As we reach mid and late week, we’ll begin to see temperatures climb near, and even slightly above average.

Monday Discussion : Chilly Start to the Week

Frost & Freeze Advisories Remain in Effect…
Frost Advisories:
* WHAT…Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.
* WHERE…Columbia, Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, Eastern Greene, Orange and Putnam Counties.
* WHEN…From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS…Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.
 
Freeze Warnings:
* WHAT…Sub-freezing temperatures in the low 30s.
* WHERE…Western Greene and Western Ulster Counties.
* WHEN…From 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS…Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
 
This GFS model image projects Monday morning low temperatures in the mid 30s around the Hudson Valley. Temps are already in the mid 40s as of early evening, setting the stage for temps to tumble into the 30s overnight. Average lows for this time of year are near 50° in Poughkeepsie, so temps 10° to 15° below average are expected. Temps on Monday will rebound into the mid 60s, before dropping back into the 30s at night once more. Temps should begin to rebound near normal by mid week. A sign that autumn… which begins on Tuesday… is on its way.

Sunday Discussion : Fall is in the Air

 

This is likely where we’ll start our Sunday morning around the Hudson Valley.  Patchy areas of frost are possible, depending on where you’re located, and the wind direction where you are.  A sure sign that autumn is not far away.  That seems fitting since Fall officially arrives on Tuesday.  We had a cold night Friday night, and again on Saturday night.  We expect another cold night Sunday night and Monday night, before temps begin to moderate once again.

We expect mostly sunny skies for the next several days.  In fact, no real chance of rain through at least Thursday or Friday.  We remain a bit dry for this point in the year, but nothing too terrible in terms of drought concerns.

By mid to late week, we expect highs to climb back into the low and mid 70s.  By late week, we may even be pushing 80° once again.  But as a whole, our weather looks quite tranquil locally.  Hopefully everyone is having a great weekend!

Tuesday Discussion : Signs of Change

A crisp start to our Tuesday around the region, as we’ve reached the mid point of September. This is a map of the satellite estimated temperatures as of 6am this morning. It’s been a while since we’ve seen widespread temps like this across the greater Hudson Valley.
Conditions will moderate the next couple days, out ahead of a strong cold front that will arive for the weekend. Behind that cold front, the coldest air since last winter pushes in, and we may have our first frost in the coldest parts of the region.
 
What were the low temps this morning where you are?

Monday Discussion : The Week Ahead / Tropical Storm Sally

After a beautiful weekend around the Hudson Valley, we’ll see tranquil conditions continue for the next several days.  Northwest winds will set up for Monday and Tuesday, making it feel like early fall around the region.  Highs in the low 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.  By Wednesday and Thursday, the winds will shift back out the southwest, and that will give us warmer temperatures.  Highs in the upper 70s to near 80°, and lows in the 50s to near 60°.  The next chance for rain comes on Friday, as the remnants of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane Sally), get caught along a cold front that could sweep through our area.

Not much in the way of rainfall the next 5 days.

The above rainfall projection is from the European ensembles, between Monday and Friday.  In short… not much.  As we mentioned at the top, the rainfall we see here, is from Friday, and the guidance is split on the track of Friday’s rainfall threat.  But the odds are good that the focus of the rainfall stays south of us, near Washington DC and Baltimore.  Drought concerns continue in the community, as we hear many claims that urgent rainfall is needed.  While we surely could use some more rain, it’s dry… but not abnormally dry in New York State.

We’ll have to watch and see if this worsens due to the dry conditions of the coming week.  But in short… a rather nice week of weather for the region, with our next shot at rainfall coming on Friday.

Tropical Storm Sally Targets New Orleans

The tropics have really gotten active over the last week or two.  This map shows us all the active storms, as well as the areas of high risk of tropical development.

Hurricane Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene are no risk to the US mainland.  Hurricane Paulette however could bring damaging winds to Bermuda, as it heads northeastward out to sea.  That could be very bad news for our friends in Bermuda.  Rene is falling apart, and Tropical Storm Sally is heading toward the southeast coast.  But you’ll also notice 2 low chance areas for development, 1 high chance for development off the coast of Africa, and a Tropical Depression that will push westward.  A total of 7 disturbances or storms in the Atlantic basin right now.  But we’re going to focus on Tropical Storm Sally, because it has the potential to cause significant damage in the New Orleans area.

Tropical Storm Sally is a 60mph storm as of 11pm Sunday night.  You can see the closeup track projection takes it just east of New Orleans as a category 1 storm.  The further east this storm tracks… the better the scenario for much of Louisiana.  Due to the curvature of eastern Louisiana, when the counter clockwise winds of a tropical storm wrap around out of the east… storm surge over 9 to 12 feet can’t be ruled out.  We will continue to hope for a storm the pushes further and further east, away from the most densely populated areas.

To understand the potential impact of the storm in the southeast, lets look at the projected sustained winds and rainfall totals.

Projected Sustained Winds

Projected Rainfall Totals

Look at the dramatic cut off of rainfall amounts with Hurricane Sallie.  The storm is not evenly weighted, meaning the heaviest rainfall and wind is currently east of the center of circulation.  This simulation has roughly 0.75″ of rain in New Orleans… but if we go 50 to 100 miles east of New Orleans, rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches is possible.

As a result, the track is critical for flooding concerns, because the same areas where the heaviest rainfall is found, are where the best chance for a deadly storm surge over 9 feet is possible.  We will do our best to monitor the situation as it get s closer.  For now, our weather locally is quiet… thoughts go out to our friends in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Have a great start to your week.

Weekly Outlook : Summer Not Going Without A Fight

We hope everyone’s enjoying a gorgeous Labor Day around the Hudson Valley. Despite the calendar bringing the unofficlal end to summer… it’s going to feel like mother nature is having second thoughts.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be close to 10° above average in the Hudson Valley, as a southerly flow brings warm air into the area. Partly cloudy skies will combine with afternoon highs in the mid to possibly even upper 80s around the region, with overnight lows in the 60s. Our next shot at rain appears to come on Thursday, as a SE flow will bring clouds and fog into the valley. Scattered rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm seem possible on Thursday, out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, something we’ll have to monitor.
 
Behind the front, Friday and Saturday look much more like fall, with highs in the low 70s, and overnight lows near 50°. A sure sign that the summer is slowly coming to an end, and that autumn is on the horizon. Have a great start to the week!