Friday Discussion : First Taste of Winter?

Good evening, Hudson Valley. The Thursday afternoon data and evening data is in, and we have no changes at all from our previous ideas and discussions. A quick recap:
Timeline:
– Rain showers continue into the night
– Rain changes to wet snow in Catskills between 2am and 5am
– Rain changes to wet snow north of I-84 between 4am and 8am
– Rain mixes/changes to wet snow south of I-84 between 5am and 9am
– Wet snow (mixed with rain) tapers off between 9am and 12pm
Accumulations:
– Valley (below 800ft) – slushy coating to 1 inch on grass possible
– Hill towns (800ft – 1500ft) – slushy coating to 2″ possible on grass
– Catskills & elevations above 1500ft – 2 to 4 inches possible
Winter Storm Video Discussion : 11 minute forecast discussion posted on Facebook
It’s all going to come down to the temperatures. How cold does it get, and is it cold enough for the wet snow to accumulate. The coldest guidance has Poughkeepsie falling to 35°. In general, it looks like 33° to 37° will be where much of the valley bottoms out, and as such… a slushy coating to an inch on grass would be the best we would expect. As you go up in elevation, the story changes… where temps could reach 32°, and an inch or two is possible. The Catskills and areas above 1500 feet will stand the best chance for accumulating snow… 1 to 3… maybe 4 inches of snow are possible in the Catskills, and we could see some slick roads… so use extra caution if you’re travelling in the morning.
We’ll have updates in the morning, as we see if we can get some pre-Halloween snowflakes around the region. Have a good night Hudson Valley.

Thursday Discussion : Soaker Ending as Slush?

The remnants of Hurricane Zeta will push into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, and that will translate into a soaking rainfall all across the Hudson Valley…

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 8pm Thursday

Rain will develop around sunrise, and become steady and moderate around the valley.  Lasting through sunset in most areas.  Showers will continue into the night, as the colder air works into the region.  In terms of total rainfall, this is a rough estimate of the 1 to 2 inches of rain that we could see…

Soaker to Slushy??

The question of the day for certain, as a very complex setup unfolds over the region.  Please check out our Winter Storm Discussion Live Stream from Wednesday night.  It goes into considerable detail on exactly how the situation should play out.  The short version of what we anticipate…

  • 12am to 4am : Rain showers mix with snow in valley… wet snow above 1500 feet
  • 4am to 7am : Rain changes to wet snow in the valley … snow above 1500 feet
  • 7am to 12pm : Wet snow (mixed with rain south of I-84)… snow tapers off from NW to SE

Futurecast Radar : 2am to 2pm Friday

You see on this simulation, a fairly good representation of how we think things will play out.  The upper level low pressure rapidly deepens off the coast, and a band of precipitation deepens and intensifies over the Hudson Valley for a short time, in the form of wet snow.  We think temperatures will stay above freezing, which will keep any accumulations to the grassy areas… unless you go above 1500 feet and up into the Catskills.  That is where we could see a couple slushy inches, mainly in the Catskills and higher elevations.  But even in the valley, if the wet snow falls steadily, we could see a slushy coating on the grass in the valley areas.  We’ll have to see how things unfold as we get closer.  Like we say, check out the video for more context.

It’s late October, and we’re still working on the winter outlook… but here comes winter, trying to make an early guest appearance before Halloween.  Let’s see how it plays out.  Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Is The Friday Snow Threat Real?

For the last 2 to 3 days, we’ve been silently monitoring the computer guidance.  Tropical Storm Zeta is moving north in the Gulf of Mexico, and should make landfall in Louisiana late on Wednesday.  That’s when the magic of late fall weather kicks in, and could give us a pre-Halloween surprise.

Futurecast Weather Map : Thursday Morning – Friday PM

It’s a complex setup, which we go into a bit more detail on a Fireside Chat on the HVW Facebook Page.  In short, there are 2 features, or areas of low pressure.  The first is the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta.  That pushes northeast on Thursday, spreading rain into the region.  As that system moves out to sea Thursday evening, a second area of low pressure, an upper level low, reaches the east coast and intensifies.  That could cause a 2nd band of moisture to intensify over the northeast.  If the approaching cold air pushes in fast enough… a period of snow is very much a possibility.

Timeline:
– Thu AM through Thu 8pm : Periods of light to moderate rain
– 8pm Thu – 3am Fri : Rain showers mix with wet snow… wet snow in higher elevations
– 3am to 9am : Rain changes to wet snow from north to south
– 9am to 1pm : Wet snow tapers off

When we talk about the potential for accumulations… it’s a bit early to get to that.  We’re not fully convinced that the 2nd piece of energy, the 2nd low pressure… has enough cold air, energy and moisture to spread accumulating snow into the Hudson Valley.  Up to 3 or 4 slushy inches can’t be ruled out… especially as you go up in elevation.  A lot of interesting factors, and the details will determine exactly how this storm unfolds, and what we see.  More updates on Wednesday, as we get more information.

Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Unsettled Start to the Week

As we head into the last week of October, we’ve got another unsettled day to start the work week.

Mainly cloudy skies with patchy areas of showers and drizzle are expected through the day Monday.  This will hold temperatures down in the 40s and low 50s.  A rather chilly and raw day by most standards.  The shower threat will persist into the evening hours, before tapering off overnight.  For Tuesday, we should see some breaks of sunshine along with the clouds.  That should allow temperatures to climb into the upper 50s for Tuesday’s highs.  Wednesday also looks fairly decent, before our next storm approaches for Thursday, with what will likely be a soaking rain.

The storm should push eastward on Friday, as some much colder air tries to sneak into the Hudson Valley.  Now, there’s a long shot that some of the cold air sneaks in before the moisture is out of the region.  If several things come together, it could cause the rain to end as some wet snow flakes around parts of the region.  Something exciting for us to watch, as we are reminded that the seasons are beginning to change more and more each day.  We’ll monitor though the week, but at this moment, we’d put the chances for wet snow flakes at 20%, and the chances of accumulating snow at less than 10%… just so you have a point of reference for how likely or unlikely we feel this is right now.

Have a great start to your week!

Friday Discussion : More of the Same… Warm

This week’s weather hasn’t been stellar… but it hasn’t been bad by any stretch either.  We mentioned in the weekly outlook that the temperatures this week would be well above average, and the weather hasn’t let us down.  Temperatures have been very mild this week, several degrees above average.

You can see just how warm it has been this week.  Despite the warmth, we’ve had low clouds and fog more often than not… even a few spot showers.  But none the less, temps have been well above average.

Temperatures will continue to be above average as we close out the work week, and head into the weekend.  An approaching cold front from the west, will push into the Hudson Valley on Saturday.  Expect lots of cloudiness between Friday and Saturday, with afternoon temperatures around 70°.  A few showers can’t be ruled out either, as the frontal system approaches.

Behind the front on Saturday night, temps will tumble into the 30s, giving us a chilly reminder… that overnight lows this time of year should be in the 30s, and not near 60°.  Sunday and Monday look rather chilly compared to what we’re used to… with highs struggling into the 50s.  So enjoy the warm weather while you can… because changes are coming our way.  Have a great Friday!

Weekly Outlook : October 18th – October 24th

Halfway through the month of October already, and in some ways it seems hard to believe.  So lets take a look at what the first half of the month has looked like…

Locally in the Hudson Valley, temperatures have been fairly close to average… maybe a degree or two above normal.  You can see that New England was a few degrees warmer, as the northeast US was right on the eastern edge of a trough.  So with the first half of the month being quite close to average in terms of temperatures, lets take a look at the next week or so.

500mb (Jet Stream) Pattern : Sunday 10/18 – Saturday 10/24

When we look at the jet stream pattern over the next 7 days, a few things jump out at us.  The first thing, is the ridge over the eastern US (designated by the orange colors).  The higher than average pressures over the eastern US really lock in over the full 7 day period.  Another thing you notice, is a tropical system over the Atlantic (blue colors)tries to push toward the east coast, but really does not get close to the eastern seaboard before curving out to sea.  You’ll notice a trough (indicated by the blue colors over the upper mid-west), tries to push east, but is beaten back by the massive building ridge over the eastern US.

This kind of ridge over the eastern US traditionally translates into much above average temperatures, and rather dry conditions.  So lets take a look at the projected temperatures over the next week…

This is quite a warm 7 day period, with temperatures over the period projecting around 9° above average.  With the average highs for mid October is right around 60°, so that projects for afternoon highs near 70° over much of the coming week.  These projected temperatures are consistent with what you would expect with the jet stream shown above.  So the temperatures are consistent with what we would expect from the coming jet stream pattern… lets see if the projected rainfall/precipitation are also in line with expectations…

The average precipitation for the month of October is 4.41″ in Poughkeepsie.  So if we estimate 4 weeks in a month, that’s over 1″ of precipitation per week on average.  The computer guidance over the next 7 days is showing between 0.10″ and 0.25″ in the Hudson Valley… which is well below average.  Looking at the graphic, you can see the heaviest moisture is northwest of our region, into the Great Lakes and Canada.  So the implication being that the Hudson Valley will be on the warm and dry side over the next 7 days.

So in conclusion, we’ve got a warm and dry pattern ahead for the next week.  The days may not be the nicest in terms of sunshine and blue skies, a few days could see a considerable number of clouds, even some patchy drizzle (which is how we get much of the rainfall you see on the above graphic).  But some rather nice weather for mid October is likely headed our way through next weekend.

Looking beyond the next 7 days… it’s quite likely we see a complete flip of the pattern, as the deep trough that will be over the western US next week, likely shifts over the eastern US by month’s end.

So for as warm and dry as it could be over the Hudson Valley in the next week… we could see a cold and stormy end to the month of October, and start to November.  Considering the time of year… we could even be seeing high elevation snow as a concern in that type of pattern.  Something for weather lovers to keep their eye on.  Have a great week!

Thursday Discussion : Warm October Sunshine

A beautiful mid October day lined up for the Hudson Valley! Mostly sunny skies and a warm SW wind will push afternoon highs into the low 70s. Anyone with outdoor plans today will be very happy. An approaching frontal system will push clouds into the region tonight, and lingering into Friday. Rain showers will be possible tonight… and again late on Friday, as some energy moves northward along the frontal boundary. Rain showers are likely Friday night, but taper off Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon should see some breaks of sun, and a northwest breeze. Complete details on the 5 day are on the website. We hope everyone has a wonderful Thursday!

Tuesday Discussion : Soggy and Cool

Radar Loop : 7:30am – 10am

Conditions remain damp and unsettled around the Hudson Valley this morning. You can see from this radar loop, that the cold front is approaching from the west. The showers associated with the front itself, are breaking up a bit as it approaches from the west. Out ahead of it, in the Hudson Valley, we have some showers moving from south to north. The showers will be scattered through mid day, before tapering off during the early afternoon hours from SW to NE. A few breaks of sunshine are possible before sunset, especially in the western HV. Rainfall amounts today should be rather light, but a few localized areas of steadier rain are possible… but the radar doesn’t lie, the showers are disorganized, and mostly light. Temps around the region should hold in the 50s today, with winds out of the north/northeast. Stay dry, and have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Damp and Raw

Monday will see a late fall feel move into the Hudson Valley, as the remnants of Hurricane Delta reach the east coast.  Moisture and low pressure associated with what once was Hurricane Delta, has merged with a trough along the east coast.  The end result is a weak nor’easter along the east coast.

Futurecast Radar : Monday 2am – Tuesday 8am

Latest guidance has seen some details change… while the main theme remains the same.  Monday will be cloudy and cold, with periods of light to moderate rain showers.  Highs will struggle into the low 50s, with a strong ENE wind.  But you can see on the simulated radar, that the low pressure is weak, and rally stalls out over Delaware.  That’s in part to a strong high pressure over SE Canada.  That’s high pressure is going to allow the dry air to hold on for longer over the northeast, and prevent the steadiest rains from moving far north Sunday night and Monday morning.  We’ll still see rain showers… but instead of widespread 1″ to 1.5″ amounts… it seems like 0.5″ will be much more common.

The cold front arrives toward the end of the simulated radar, and that will draw more shower activity into the northeast.  Rain showers are likely through Monday night, with temps holding in the upper 40s and low 50s.  Latest guidance also shows that the rain shower threat could hold on into the mid and late morning on Tuesday… still tapering off by mid day, but the Tuesday morning commute could still feature wet roads.

This is one of those storms where we’re very glad it’s not winter.  The devil is in the details in terms of moisture amounts, so if this was January… it could have been one of those storms where a snow forecast for 6 to 10 inches turned into 3 to 5 inches at the last minute.  When it’s October, and its just rain…. the theme stays the same, even if we only see half of the expected precipitation.  Lets hope that this theme doesn’t extend into the winter.

Stay warm, stay dry… and have a great Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Remnants of Delta Overnight

As the seasons continue to change, and late summer becomes fall, we begin to see more interesting weather events around the Hudson Valley.  The remnants of Hurricane Delta have phased into an east coast trough, and will provide our area with what is essentially “Nor’easter Delta”.  Now, this storm isn’t named, and has no tropical characteristics… but the moisture and energy left over from what was Hurricane Delta, will give us a winter like nor’easter… just with rain instead of snow.

Futurecast Radar : Sunday 8pm – Tuesday 2pm.

This simulated radar of the northeast shows the expected progress from Sunday night through lunch time Tuesday.  The bulk of the rain will come through between midnight tonight and 4pm on Monday afternoon.  Then we’ll have the threat for scattered rain showers through the afternoon and evening on Monday, as the cold front approaches from the west.  The cold front could touch off more showers, possibly even a thunderstorm, near sunrise on Tuesday… before pushing east of the Hudson Valley by mid morning on Tuesday.

As with a nor’easter, we’ll have blustery and raw conditions on Monday.  Winds out of the east/northeast at 5 to 15mph will combine with chilly temperatures holding in the upper 40s to low 50s.  This will make for a raw feel more typical of early spring or late fall.  You’re going to want rain gear and a heavy coat if going out and about on Monday.  In terms of rainfall amounts, a good soaking rain is likely for much of the region.

Areas south of I-84 have the best chance to see over 1″ of rain.  Latest guidance is hinting that these rainfall amounts might be a little high, and that the rainfall might not be quite as heavy as what we see above.  But either way, a soaking rain of 0.50 to 1.0 inches appears likely for much of the Hudson Valley.  Everything should exit the region Tuesday morning… possibly lingering a little later in the Catskills.  But by Tuesday afternoon, breaks of sun are expected in the area once more.

We’ll keep our eye on the situation as it develops, but no major surprises expected with this system.  Simply a reminder that fall is here, and a nor’easter with blustery and raw conditions will kick off our work week.  Have a great Sunday afternoon and evening!