Final Snowfall Forecast : Monday 2/1 – Tuesday 2/2

Winter Storm Warnings are beginning to be issued across the southern Hudson Valley, and soon to be followed across the remainder of the Hudson Valley, as we track an evolving complex storm system that is now likely to be a major event for our region.

Timing :
– 9pm Sun – 2am : Light snow develops over southern half of HV
– 6am to 10am : Moderate snow develops from south to north
– 10am to 6pm : Moderate to Heavy snow
– 6pm Mon to 12am Tue : Light to moderate snow
– 12am to 6pm Tue : Periods of light to moderate snow tapers

Impacts/Conditions:
– Long Duration event expected, snow could last over 24 hours
– Monday AM commute likely impacted, especially from I-84 on south
– Accumulating snow may be delayed until morning in northern half of HV
– Heaviest snow likely late Monday morning through Monday evening
– NE winds 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph, blowing & drifting snow
– White out / Blizzard conditions possible at times
– Extremely difficult/dangerous travel Monday PM – Tuesday AM

Snow Accumulations:
– Eastern Catskills (Zone 2) : 18 to 24 inches (locally up to 30″)
– Majority of Hudson Valley : 12 to 20 inches (locally up to 24″)
* Red Circles = Downsloping dry air, potential lower amounts of 8″ to 14″
** Banding across mid/lower HV could result in localized reports up to 24″

— HVW Discussion —

No major changes to the basic structure and concept behind how this storm develops and impacts the Hudson Valley.  The primary changes, are in the amount of available moisture for our region.  Computer guidance is now consistently depicting 25% to 50% more moisture than at the time we created the preliminary forecast.  The result would be snow bands of 1 to 3 inches per hour during the day on Monday, combined with NE winds gusting over 30mph at times.  The stage is set for absolutely horrendous travel conditions Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Futurecast Radar : 6pm Sunday – 6am Tuesday

This 36 hour radar loop shows that the potential exists for light snows overnight Sunday night in many portions of the Hudson Valley (lower half especially).  The start time of this event is going to vary greatly by location.  Some guidance has the snow starting by 8pm tonight south of I-84, other guidance waits until after midnight.  Some guidance delays start times for the northern half of the HV until near sunrise on Monday, other guidance says it’s snowing before midnight.  The problem, is dry air.  How strong and persistent is the dry air?  We’ll see.  But keep in mind that conditions could deteriorate before sunrise on Monday.

We’ll see an increasing band of heavy snow pushing northward Monday morning into Monday afternoon.  The heaviest snow is likely from late morning through early evening Monday, before the storm literally begins to ‘snow itself out’ Monday night.  The low pressure will sit and spin off shore the entire time, which means there are unanswered questions about how much (if any) snow continues to fall as we push into Tuesday around the region.  Notice by the end of the loop that the heavier snow pushes north of our area, but light snow showers are projected to continue falling.

When all is said and done, we feel the HRRR solution paints a very possible solution of snowfall across the region.

The position of the heaviest snow bands will be the determinant of who sees upwards of 20″ from this storm.  Much guidance says that the Hudson Valley will be where that occurs, but we can’t be certain.  The result is our wide range for a general 12 to 20 inches of snow.  We have concerns about moisture availability in some areas… especially the downslope locations circled in the snowfall forecast map.  In those areas, downsloping may dry the air enough to reduce snowfall amounts by up to 6 inches compared to areas surrounding them.  So a few locations may struggle to meet the snowfall forecast range.

In addition, some locations will see heavier bands of snow than others.  This will give the potential for some places to eclipse 20″ of snow.  Another factor in the wide snowfall forecast range.

Winds will also be an issue….
Futurecast Winds:  1am Monday – 1am Tuesday

Gusts out of the northeast between 25 and 40mph, will create blizzard conditions across the entire region, especially the higher terrain.  Areas in the Catskills could see gusts up to 50mph.  This will blow and drift the snow over 2 or 3 feet in some areas, creating possible white out conditions at times, and making travel virtually impossible late on Monday.  The snow is going to be a rather fluffy powder, and will not stick to trees and powerlines.  So our hope is that power outages will be minimal.  But anytime you have gusts over 35mph, the risk of outages will exist.

We will continue to update things over the next 36 hours, as we track a major winter storm for the Hudson Valley.

Preliminary Snowfall Forecast : Monday 2/1 – Tuesday 2/2

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the entire Hudson Valley, as we track a complex storm system that is likely to bring a long duration snow event to our region.

Timing :
– 9pm Sun – 6am Mon : Light snow develops south to north (especially I-84 on south)
– 6am to 10am Mon : Moderate snow develops from south to north
– 10am to 6pm Mon : Moderate to Heavy snow possible
– 6pm Mon to 12pm Tue : Light to moderate snow possible
– 12pm to 6pm Tue : Snow tapers off from west to east

Impacts/Conditions:
– Long Duration event expected, snow could last for 24 to 36 hours
– Start time delayed by dry air in northern half of Hudson Valley
– Monday AM commute could be impacted, especially I-84 on south
– Heaviest snow likely late Monday morning through Monday evening
– NE winds 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph, blowing & drifting snow
– White out / Blizzard conditions possible at times
– Extremely difficult/dangerous travel Monday PM – Tuesday AM

Snow Accumulations:
– Eastern Catskills (Zone 2) : 8 to 16 inches
– Western Catskills, Upper Hudson Valley (Zone 1, N3, N4) : 5 to 10 inches
– Lower Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley (Zone S3, S4, 5, 6, 7) : 6 to 12 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 8&9) : 8 to 16 inches

HVW Discussion

Low pressure from the Midwest will weaken as it moves into the Ohio Valley, and a secondary low pressure will develop off the coast of Virginia.  That coastal storm will intensify and move northeast, spreading snow from the Mid Atlantic states, through the Hudson Valley, and into New England.  The cold air, storm track, and intensity will all combine for a challenging forecast for the Hudson Valley.  All in all, it’s likely to bring a long duration snow event to the region.

Futurecast Radar : 1pm Sunday – 6am Monday

Dry air pushing south from New England will delay the northern progress of the snow band.  Above is the futurecast radar from 6pm Sunday to 6am Monday, and the snow moves into the low half of the Hudson Valley before midnight, but struggles to move north from there.  If this scenario is correct, 1 to 3 inches of snow would be possible in the mid and lower Hudson Valley by Monday morning.  But there is considerable uncertainty due to the dry air, so the start times may be updated on Sunday.

The low pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken, and transfer its energy to the coastal low pressure.  It’s at that point, that the snow band is likely to intensify to our south… and begin pushing northward, into the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 6pm Monday

The initial wave that pushes northward between late morning and early afternoon is likely to see rates of snow over 1″ per hour.  The big question is what happens after that.  The coastal low pressure will spin off shore, and how close to the coast it is will determine where the position of the heaviest snow bands are.  The counter clockwise rotation will spin snow bands northwestward, into the Hudson Valley.  The snow bands will begin to pivot as the low pressure slowly drifts eastward.  But the low pressure will not move away until early morning Wednesday, so the position of the heavy snow band as it stalls out, could mean the difference between 6 to 8 inches… and 12 to 18 inches of snow.  There is a high degree of difficulty with this forecast, because of these details.  Any time a storm stalls off shore, there will be a high bust potential to any forecast.  So we’ll have to be prepared to make changes or tweaks… and provide updates of new information, should things change as the storm begins to unfold.  Make sure to monitor the storm for updates.

Additional Details / Forecast Uncertainties

Strong NE winds will howl at 10 to 20mph, and gust over 30mph at times.

Projected Wind Gusts 1am Monday – 1am Tuesday

These wind gusts could combine to create blizzard and white out conditions around the region at the height of this storm.  Moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates combined with gusts over 35mph at times will make for treacherous travel conditions… Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  We’ll need to track the wind potential… because if these wind gusts are accurate, parts of the region could see blizzard warnings issued.  Snow drifts well over 1 or 2 feet are possible due to the blowing and drifting of snow… in addition to near zero visibility at times.

Northern parts of the region could experience lower snowfall amounts due to the combination of dry air, and downsloping winds.  The gusts shown above will be coming from the northeast.  Those direction winds create downslope winds on the west side of the Birkshires and Catskills.  That is in part why we have the lower totals in the northern Hudson Valley, as well as western Catskills.  With the moisture coming from the southeast, and northeast winds, the sinking air could lower totals in those areas… another factor that could cause forecast headaches.

Finally, how long this storm lingers, and the snow band pivots around the back side of the storm, really is a wildcard with regard to final snow totals and snow end times.

Futurecast Radar : Entire Event 7pm Sunday – 1am Wednesday

This radar loop is over 48 hours long, and snow is falling in portions of the Hudson Valley for much of that time.  This simulation suggests accumulating snows through at least 12pm on Tuesday, which would be over 24 hours in many places.  Where the back edge snow band stalls and pivots, and just how long the snow lingers, depend on the position and speed of the nor’easter.  There is a high probability that data changes in some capacity, which could have sizeable impacts on the forecast.  So the best way to summarize it is…

  • High confidence that the lower half of the Hudson Valley will have the highest snow totals
  • High confidence snow falls most of Monday
  • Medium/High confidence of a snowfall over 6 inches for everyone
  • Medium/Low confidence on snowfall forecast range (could be higher in mid Hudson Valley)
  • Medium/Low confidence on snow end times
  • Medium/Low confidence on axis of heaviest snow (where over 12″ are expected)

Hopefully this helps clarify where we stand with the forecast at this time.  We will monitor this storm up until, and through the entire event.  Please check here and on the Facebook page for updates.  Our final forecast will be issued Sunday afternoon.

Saturday Discussion : Next Storm Takes Aim

The first half of January was rather quiet, but the pattern has changed significantly and February promises to start much differently than January.

Futurecast Radar : Sunday 7am – Monday 1am

Low pressure from the midwest will push eastward into the Ohio Valley on Sunday.  It will spread snow into Ohio and Pennsylvania… but the system will weaken as it does.  At the same time, we have strong, cold high pressure over New England.  That will pull cold, dry air into the Hudson Valley.  This sets the stage for a battle Sunday and Sunday night between cold dry air, and approaching snow.

Futurecast Radar : 7pm Sunday – 7am Monday

You can watch the snow pushing northeast… stall out… and actually push backward slightly as the sun rises on Monday.  The effects of the cold, dry air will need to be monitored, as it could mean the difference as to whether snow is falling at sunrise Monday morning.  Temperatures will be cold… with readings in the upper teens to low 20s as the sun rises Monday morning.  There is increasing model agreement that even if the snow is suppressed for a while Sunday night… that on Monday morning, the snow will overspread the Hudson Valley.

As the coastal low pressure takes over, the snow could stall for a few hours… but the snow band should begin pushing northward as it intensifies.  This could set the stage for a snowy Monday afternoon and night.  Snow could fall heavy at times into Monday night, as the low pressure is very slow to move northward.  A large ridge of high pressure in Canada will block the storm from exiting to the northeast.  The result will be a storm that sits and spins off the east coast for 24 to 36 hours.  There are big questions with this scenario, regarding where the snow will fall, and how heavy it falls during this extended time period.

Futurecast Radar : 7pm Sunday – 7am Tuesday

This radar loop is 36 hours long.  Notice how slowly the storm moves, due to the high pressure blocking it.  This type of setup is primed for forecast headaches.  With a low pressure spinning off the east coast, it’s position becomes very hard to pinpoint, and that makes the difference between heavy snow, or possibly no snow at all.  The point we want to stress, is that there is a high potential for a change to the forecast details.  We are feeling more and more confident with the newer data that’s coming out… as the models are all trending in the same direction.  But with a stalled out upper level low, the trends could quickly shift in the other direction, and our confidence level could quickly vanish.  For now, just keep that information in the back of your mind.

The Current Trend…

Earlier on Friday, the trend was further off shore, with the cold air driving southward.  We were at that point becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for the storm to be focused to our south.  However… things have changed since then.  Here are the last 5 runs of the NAM model, and you can see the trend in the last 2 frames.

1pm Monday – Last 5 runs of the NAM model

 

Notice how 24 hours ago, the focal point of heaviest snow was over NYC, then 18 hours ago, it shifts slightly north.  Then 12 hours ago it shifts back to the south, focused over NYC.  Then somewhat unexpectedly, a sizeable jump northward just 6 hours ago.  Finally, the current run… pushes even further north… so that it would be snowing over Albany.  This is a major shift, considering 2 of the first 3 runs had the snow focused from NYC on south… not even snowing in Poughkeepsie.  Now, the last 2 runs have shifted far enough north, that steady snow would cover the entire Hudson Valley in this period.

The snowfall impact on our area is DRAMATIC.  With the snow focused over NYC it would be a 3 to 8 inch event around the Hudson Valley… with NYC seeing over 1 foot.  With the northern solution shown on the most recent runs… the trend implies the Hudson Valley could be smack dab, back in the middle of the heaviest snows with this storm.  And with this storm, the heaviest snows could easily exceed 1 foot.

We have mentioned to expect dramatic swings in the app forecasts as we get closer to the event.  On Friday, we heard a lot of people talking about the storm being a miss, or “not a big storm”.  The reason is the GFS model went from showing 6 to 12 inches or more… to 2 to 6 inches in the HV.  This storm is going to be a tricky forecast, all the way to the end.  So make sure you check for updates.  We’ll keep you up to date with the latest.

Happy Saturday!

 

Thursday Discussion : Tumbling Temps

Here comes the coldest air of the season so far…

A strong upper level low diving out of Canada will drag down the coldest air of the winter so far.  The impacts will be felt around the Hudson Valley beginning Thursday afternoon… and the arctic blast will be with us through the weekend.  Skies will be partly to mostly clear for the next 5 days… the primary story will be the cold and the wind.  Highs on Thursday will struggle toward 30° but likely fall just short.  Then the northwest winds begin to howl, and everything goes down hill.  Lows Thursday night into Friday will be in the single digits, and wind chills likely will be 0° to -15°.  Then on Friday, the core of the cold settles in…

Temps will hold in the mid to upper teens all afternoon, which is roughly 20° below where you would expect afternoon highs to be for this time of year…

But that’s not the full story.  The winds will gust over 30mph at times Friday afternoon… and that will make for some brutal wind chills.

Only 1 or 2 times a year do we get an air mass where the afternoon temperatures feel like 0°.  Make sure you’re bundled up properly if you head outside.  Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will be between 0° and 10° once again.  But factor in the winds, and you’re talking about real feel temps well below zero to start your Saturday.

In summary… the theme is COLD… VERY COLD.  As we get our first true outbreak of arctic air of the season.  Bundle up, Hudson Valley.

Snow Recap – Tuesday January 26, 2020

A weak system brought light snows to the Hudson Valley for the first time in weeks, and we had our first widespread accumulating snow since the first week of January.

This storm was weakening on approach, and really fell apart.  But we still saw a general 2 to 4 inches of snow around the region, depending on location.

Wednesday Discussion : Eyes Turn to Cold

The disorganized, weak system that we expected to be a forecast headache… did not disappoint.  Dry air delayed the start of the snow just a bit, and the snow band pushed through the Hudson Valley faster than projected.  The end result was a lot of 1 and 2 inch amounts being reported by sunset.  We’ll see if light snow showers overnight were able to get the 2 and 3 inch amounts we were expecting.  Regardless, there’s no time for dwelling on the past, we’ve got more weather to talk about… this time in the form of cold.

An upper level low is diving out of Canada as we move through the end of the week, and this quick moving upper level low will drag some very cold air behind it.

500mb vorticity : Thursday – Friday (shows upper level low diving south)

The origin region of this air mass is northern Canada, so it should come as little surprise that the air mass we’re in for Thursday through Sunday is going to be the coldest air of the season to date.  Here are your high temperatures on Friday afternoon…

These temps are nearly 20° below average for this time of year, as you might expect from an air mass that started out near the north pole.

Any questions about “where is winter?” and “will it ever get cold?”… will get a definitive answer this weekend.  These temps will carry over to Saturday as well.  In fact, the cold drops in Thursday afternoon, deepens Thursday night, then settles in for Friday and Saturday, before easing up a bit on Sunday.  Winter is coming… and it arrives Thursday.

But to make matters worse, the cold will be accompanied by strong NW winds.  That’s going to make for some pretty ugly wind chills in the Hudson Valley.  Remember how we said that afternoon high temperatures on Friday will only be in the teens?  Which was roughly 15 to 20 degrees below average?  Well it will never really feel that warm.  When you factor in sustained winds at 10 to 15mph, and gusts over 30mph… here are your projected wind chills for Friday at 1pm…

We’re making a pretty big deal about this cold… because you’re definitely going to want to make sure you’re prepared.  These temperatures are dangerous if you’re caught unprepared.  Make sure you’ve got the proper gear if you’re planning on being exposed to these wind chills for any length of time.  But as if these temps weren’t cold enough… the winds will be with us through the night on Friday night.  So the overnight lows in the single digits… will feel quite a bit colder when we factor in the wind.  Just look at these projected ‘real feel’ temperatures when you wake up on Saturday…

Every winter we usually get at least 1 or 2 outbreaks of cold that give us real feel temperatures, and actual air temperatures like this.  So here comes our air mass for this winter.  It’s still early… so we can’t rule out that February won’t provide an even colder air mass at some point… but for now… this is the coldest air of the winter.  You can see the 5 day forecast for the forecast highs… and more detail if you’d like.

For Wednesday at least… it will be a balmy mid 30s in the afternoon.  So ‘enjoy’ that while you can.  Have a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Final Snowfall Forecast 1/26

A weak storm system will push into the Hudson Valley on Tuesday and spread widespread accumulating snow into the region for the first time in weeks.  While not a major event, it could still cause some travel headaches and hazardous conditions across our area.

Timing (Tuesday):
– 10am to 1pm : Snow begins from SW to NE
– 12pm to 4pm : Period of moderate snow expected
– 4pm to 6am Wednesday : On and off periods of light snow
– 6am to 10am Wednesday : Snow showers taper off

Impact / Conditions:
– Steadiest snow likely at the onset, could fall up to 1″ per hour for a time
– By late afternoon Tuesday, lighter snow expected, could last into night
– Snow could mix with sleet south of I-84 late in afternoon
– Temps in 20s, snow accumulates to all surfaces, icy roads possible
– Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM commutes could be hazardous

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 4 to 8 inches
– Mid & Upper HV (Zone 3,4,5,6,7,8) : 2 to 6 inches
– Low Hudson Valley (Zone 9) : 1 to 3 inches

— Forecast Discussion —

A weakening storm pushing into the northeast will create a bit of a mess for the Hudson Valley on Tuesday.  Snow is likely to spread into the Hudson Valley between 10am and 1pm in most areas, and it could come down quite hard for a couple of hours…

Futurecast Radar : 10am to 4pm

The weakening system approaches disorganized, and then at the last minute, the atmospheric vorticity intensifies over NE PA, and snow should rapidly develop and become quite heavy for a brief time.  To get a visualization of what causes this moderate to heavy snow band to develop right over top of us, here is the 700mb vorticity loop for roughly the same time as the radar shown above.

700mb Vorticity 7am to 7pm

Vorticity is a measure of the rotation and lift of the air at this layer of the atmosphere.  The red and purple band develops over PA and moves NE, and that sudden rotation and lift of the air, should generate the moderate to potentially briefly heavy snow for Tuesday afternoon around the region.  For that reason, we’re concerned about a 1 to 2 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow across the region, close to the onset of the snow.  This could cause a quick 1″ of snow in spots, and create some very hazardous travel if people are caught off guard.

As the afternoon progresses, the back edge of the main area of moisture approaches between 4pm and 8pm.  As it does, some of the guidance wants to mix parts of the region with sleet and possibly even freezing rain.  We won’t discount it… but we have looked at projected soundings, and cannot see how this actually occurs.  All layers of the atmosphere are projected to be safely (3 to 6 degrees C) below freezing.  Either the sounding data is wrong… or the map above is wrong… because the soundings point to an all snow event.  We’ll see how it unfolds.  A wintry mix would reduce snow totals… so we’ll watch closely Tuesday afternoon.

By 6pm, the models show a widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow falling around the Hudson Valley.  If the front edge of the snow is as potent as latest data is suggesting, it is entirely possible that we have 2 to 4 inches on the ground by sunset.  The Tuesday PM commute is likely to be quite treacherous, so make sure to take it slow.

From there… the remainder of the event is a bit uncertain.  Some guidance keeps light snow showers in the region through the night Tuesday night, which could add an extra inch or so to the snow totals by Wednesday morning.  In addition, it would make for a potentially icy start to our Wednesday as well.  We’ll have more on that later on Tuesday, so check for updates.

An interesting, disorganized, and rather uncertain event on the way for Tuesday.  We’ll see what Mother Nature has in store for us.  Stay warm, stay safe… have a great day!

Monday Discussion : Signs of Winters Return

The questions have been asked many times… “where is winter?”, and “is winter over?”.  We’ve tried to reassure everyone that it was only a matter of time before we had another shot at snow across the Hudson Valley.  So after several weeks of quiet weather, it looks like Tuesday we’ll get some widespread accumulating snows once again.

Preliminary Forecast

Timing (Tuesday):
– 9am to 1pm : Snow begins from SW to NE
– 1pm to 1am Wednesday : Periods of light to moderate snow
– 2am to 8am Wednesday : Light snow tapers off

Impact / Conditions:
– Steadiest snow likely at the onset, could fall up to 1″ per hour for a time
– By mid afternoon Tuesday, steady, lighter snow expected
– Temps in 20s, snow accumulates to all surfaces
– Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM commutes could be hazardous

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 4 to 8 inches
– Mid & Upper HV (Zone 3,4,5,6,7,8) : 2 to 6 inches
– Low Hudson Valley (Zone 9) : 1 to 3 inches

–Forecast Discussion–

A storm across the plains states will push eastward on Monday, and slowly spread snow into midwest states.  But a weak area of high pressure over the eastern US will weaken the storm system as it moves east, and the result is a bit of an uncertain forecast for this storm.  Here’s the futurecast radar as it looks right now…

Futurecast Radar : 6am Tuesday – 1am Wednesday

The storm system is weakening as a band of snow is projected to develop into the Hudson Valley mid to late morning on Tuesday.  That band of snow could fall steadily for several hours, possibly mixing with sleet late in the day, before tapering off to snow showers.  As the weak low pressure falls apart, a secondary low develops near the coast and moves out to sea.  We’ll have to monitor where the light to moderate snow is at the that point… because it’s likely that the light snow falls for several hours, before weakening over our region and ending.  Even if you don’t have a great comfort level with weather maps, you can see this system looks rather disorganized, and relatively small in size.  This means minor changes could result in noticeable changes to our forecast and the end result of what we see.

For now, we’re thinking that 2 to 6 inches are possible… with much of the region likely seeing 2 to 4 inches.  But the details will determine if some of us could end up on the higher end of that range.  But based on the majority of data we have right now, a low of 2, 3 or 4 inch totals appear likely.

Beyond this storm, the pattern gets quite active.  We likely watch a storm system go out to sea, south of our region.  This will keep us mainly dry for Thursday (unless new information begins to suggest otherwise).  But then Friday and Saturday look bitter cold, as some of the arctic air from Canada, dives into the Hudson Valley.  Then behind the coldest air of the season so far… we will watch as another coastal storm takes aim for Sunday or Monday of next week, roughly 7 days from now.  That storm system, has the potential to deliver another moderate to significant snowfall.  Something we’ll have to keep our eyes locked on.

Check back with us late on Monday, and we’ll see if we have any updates on the situation.  Have a great day!

Sunday Discussion : Tricky Week Ahead

Happy Sunday, Hudson Valley!  We saw a blustery and cold day on Saturday, with highs in Poughkeepsie near 30°, but winds made sure it never felt much above 20°.  Sunday looks much the same, with temps in the upper 20s to low 30s for highs, and a NW breeze that will keep wind chills in the low to mid 20s through the day.  A cold conclusion to the weekend.

As we push into the work week, the focus will be on 2 separate systems.  The first, is the storm we’ve been highlighting the past 2 days.

Futurecast Radar : Tuesday AM – Wednesday PM

The storm out of the midwest will weaken as it runs into a weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern US.  The result is the graphic seen here.  One batch of moisture runs out to sea over the Mid Atlantic, and another batch of moisture tries to push into the Hudson Valley from the midwest.  A second weak low pressure may have just enough moisture to spread light to moderate snow over the region for an extended period of time (possibly up to 18 or 24 hours).  The snow would be light, so accumulations are not projected to be more than 4 or 5 inches at most.  Because the storm is weakening as it approaches us… the models are struggling with the setup.  So the details may need to be tweaked as we get closer.  But for now, here’s what we’re thinking…
The Summary:
– Weakening storm likely for Tuesday into Wednesday
– Light snow likely, timing and amounts still uncertain
– Could impact Tuesday night and Wednesday AM commutes
– Check back for more details

From there, our attention will shift to another storm system that will move in, hot on the heels of the Tuesday/Wednesday system.  The second storm has the potential to be much stronger than the first.  However… the 2nd storm is also more likely to stay to our south.

Thursday AM – Friday AM Futurecast

The storm rapidly deepens and becomes a strong winter storm.  The ‘problem’ for snow lovers in the Hudson Valley, is that this system has nothing to steer it north.  As a result, the storm just pushes directly out to sea on this scenario.  Guidance has been very consistent in keeping this storm south of the Hudson Valley.  However, we are beginning to see signs that this storm could have room to come north.  We go into detail talking about it around 40 minutes into the Saturday Night Fireside Chat.  But with this system still around 4 days away, there is ample time for the models to catch onto something and shift it further north.

We can’t make any promises about either of these storms having a significant impact on our area… but the weather pattern has become much more active.  There is a 3rd storm threat for Sunday 1/31 into Monday 2/1… so there is no shortage of items for us to follow.  We’ll be sure to keep you up to date on the latest.  Have a great Sunday!

Saturday Discussion : Blustery and Very Cold

One of the coldest days of the season so far on tap for Saturday, as a small batch of arctic air pushes into the northeast.

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Saturday, will be overshadowed by the strong NW winds at 10 to 20mph, with gusts to 30mph.  That means the afternoon highs in the mid 20s, will feel more like mid teens when you factor in the wind.  Saturday will definitely require the heavy winter weather gear for those headed outside.  Sunday looks cold as well… with a mostly cloudy sky, but less wind, and highs around 30°.

The big thing on everyone’s mind, is the potential for snow on Tuesday as a storm system moves into the plains states, and tries to push toward the northeast.  This storm has several factors working against it, which will complicate the forecast, and provide us with plenty of forecasting headaches.  The setup is a storm that approaches from the southwest late Monday night into Tuesday.

Monday Night – Tuesday Weather Map

This storm has potential for a decent little snow event, but the high pressure and cold air pushing southward in New England may dry out some of the snow from this system.  All of the guidance shows this system weakening as it reaches our area, instead of strengthening.  We’ll need to monitor the progress of this system to see if that trend continues.  The track of the system will also be influenced by the high pressure in Canada, that may help to force this storm further south.  There isn’t much wiggle room on this storm, because a slight shift southward, and this storm will likely miss the Hudson Valley to the south.  So we’ll be closely watching this event for the next few days.
Summary:
– Snow potential is for Tuesday
– Cold air could suppress this system to our south
– 50% chance of light/moderate snow event… 50% chance snow misses to our south
– Details will become clearing this weekend

The scenario as shown above, would lead to anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of snow being possible around the region.  There aren’t any scenarios that show this as a major event, but it could provide the first accumulating snow to our area in a few weeks.  Be sure to check back for updates.

Friday Night Fireside Chat – featuring weekend forecast discussion, Tuesday storm threat, and other speculation

Have a great Saturday

Friday Discussion : Cold Weekend Ahead

A chilly end to the work week, as we watch a reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian air for the weekend.

A reinforcing cold front brings more cold air to the Hudson Valley Friday afternoon.  As the front moves through, it will touch off some scattered snow showers and flurries around the region.  The best chance for snow showers is in the Catskills, where an inch or two can’t be ruled out.  Across the Hudson valley, expect possibly a spotty coating of snow, in a localized snow shower.  Afternoon highs in the upper 30s will fall behind the cold front, and set the stage for a very cold weekend.

Saturday looks like one of the coldest days of the winter so far.  Sunshine will mix with a few clouds, but the real story will be the cold air and wind.  Afternoon highs in the mid 20s will feel much colder, as NW winds at 10 to 20mph, will gust over 30mph at times.  That will give us the wind chills you see above… and that is projected for 12pm.  So the middle of the day will feel like single digits and teens across many parts of the region.  Anyone with plans will want to bundle up properly, or the wind will definitely ruin your day.

Watching Next Week…

We continue to watch next week for our first potential storm in what feels like forever.  The pattern has been quiet, and it looks like our first storm threat in many days will come Monday night into Tuesday.

Monday Night – Tuesday Storm Threat

The threat exists for a storm system to develop over the plains states and push east/northeast.  Cold air pushing south into the northeast will clash with approaching moisture from the southwest, and that could create an overrunning snow event for the region.  We’ll have to closely monitor, because the track is very much in doubt.  But the scenario above is currently the most likely scenario… bringing a swath of snow from Chicago, east to the Hudson Valley.  We aren’t talking about accumulations at this point, but this would not be a major snowstorm… but it could very well be a moderate snow event, if the track is right.  We’ll be sure to provide updates as we get closer.  If you want even more detail… you can watch the Fireside Chat from Thursday night.

TGIF, have a great day!