Sunday Discussion : Afternoon and Evening Showers

A slushy start to our Saturday, turned into a foggy and rainy mid day… and some breaks of sunshine by late afternoon.

As we look to Sunday, the clouds will hold in place out ahead of the next wave of energy coming our way.  A period of scattered rain showers is likely from mid and late afternoon… continuing into the evening and overnight hours.

Futurecast Radar : 10am to 10pm Sunday

The first wave of rain showers reaches the Hudson Valley around mid day.  The showers will be heaviest from I-84 on south… but everyone should see some shower activity.  Then the steady rain showers taper off around sunset… but scattered light showers will linger through the evening.  From there, the threat for scattered rain showers will persist through the overnight.  Temps will be in the low to mid 40s Sunday afternoon… falling back into the upper 30s with the rain showers in the afternoon.  Then a chilly and raw feel to the air Sunday night with the spotty showers… and temps in the mid to upper 30s.

Then on Monday morning, the cold front pushes through, and we’ll see some very blustery conditions push into the Hudson Valley by Monday afternoon… and continuing into Monday night.

Futurecast Wind Gusts : 12pm Monday – 12am Tuesday

By Monday afternoon, gusts in the 20s to low 30mph range are expected… but the winds really increase Monday night.  Gusts are projected 30 to 45mph on this guidance.  If this is correct, a bitterly blustery Monday night will be on tap… and wind chills near 0°.  In addition, a few power outages can’t be ruled out with these winds.  Not widespread outages… but a few sporadic down trees and powerlines could cause some problems.  We’ll take a closer look on Sunday night.

Have a great Sunday!

Friday Discussion : MORE SNOW TONIGHT!! … Changing to Rain

After a sunny Friday afternoon, we’ll see temps tumble Friday night into the mid 20s out ahead of an approaching storm system.  Clouds will increase before midnight, and it looks likely that snow once again develops across the Hudson Valley after midnight.

Futurecast Radar : 12am to 12pm Saturday

Wet snow will develop between 1am and 4am from SW to NE.  But this time… the warm air will win by Saturday morning.  Temps will rise above freezing at all levels of the atmosphere, and we’ll watch that wet snow change to rain by early to mid morning on Saturday.  Temps will climb from the upper 20s around midnight… to near 40° by mid day Saturday.  Those left over rain showers will taper off in the afternoon… as afternoon highs climb into the mid 40s.  However… before the mild air arrives, we could see some slushy accumulations around the region before sunrise on Saturday.

We don’t expect anything more than a slushy coating to an inch in spots… an mostly on unpaved surfaces.  The Catskills and elevations over 1000 feet could see up to an inch or two, and some slick roadways are possible in those locations before dawn.  So just be alert when heading out early on Saturday morning.  Although any slick spots will improve rapidly after sunrise.

Clouds will linger most of Saturday night and into Sunday, as another system approaches from the southwest.  Temps are expected to be in the upper 30s to around 40°… but there is no mid level cold air by this point, so some chilly light rain showers are expected Sunday afternoon and evening.

So all in all, a rather unsettled weekend on tap for the Hudson Valley.  No major storm systems, but 2 disturbances with scattered rain showers will keep us rather gray and damp this weekend.  As always, full details can be found on the HVW Detailed 5 Day Forecast or on the main page.  We hope your weekend gets off to a great start!

Thursday Discussion : Blustery and Cooler

After a beautiful Wednesday, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s around the region… a cold front will push through early, and shift our wind out of the northwest.  That means a much chillier day on Thursday.

A fairly seasonal day on Thursday, with temps close to where we would expect for this time of year.  Friday looks very similar, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40° once more.  Then a weak system advances northeastward Friday night into Saturday, and that could spread some light snow showers into the region before sunrise on Saturday.

Futurecast Radar : 1am to 7am Saturday

But this is a much milder air mass, so the arrival of the precipitation will also bring milder air with it.  That means any wet snow before dawn on Saturday, will change to scattered rain showers Saturday morning.  Highs will climb into the low 40s Saturday afternoon, easily melting whatever slushy coating may fall.  Then those mild temps stick with us through the weekend, before another storm system tries to impact the region to kick off next week’s weather.

While we don’t see any promising winter weather threats right this moment… the pattern is close enough to what we need, that we’ll need to keep monitoring the situation.  For now, we hope everyone has a wonderful end to the work week, and an excellent weekend!

Tuesday Discussion : Another Quick Shot of Snow

The pattern is slowly changing, and gradually becoming milder and less active.  But before we get there, we’re seeing some minor snow events.  We’ll have another little disturbance on Tuesday, as another weak front pushes through around mid day.

Futurecast Radar : 7am to 7pm

Wet snow showers will push into the region between 10am and 12pm in most areas.  Temps will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday, so with temps in the mid 30s, some of the snow showers could mix with rain showers in the valley.  A slushy coating is possible in the valley in a few spots… but in the Catskills a quick inch or so is possible as the snow showers move through.  Afternoon highs should climb into the mid and upper 30s.

From there, things quiet down a bit… but on Wednesday, we should see afternoon temps jump into the mid and possibly upper 40s!  A wonderful and welcome change from our recent weather pattern.  You can get our latest forecast on the main HVW page.

Snow Recap : Thursday 2/18 – Friday 2/19

Things have been kind of crazy lately, and so we haven’t posted our snow history map from last week.  We’ll share the snow history map from Monday once we have all the data in.  Likely Tuesday night or Wednesday.  As far as last Thursday and Friday… the snow started in some places around 2am Thursday, and ended Friday afternoon around 5pm.  We saw a general 3 to 5 inches around there region over the 2 day period.  The forecast called for a general 3 to 7 inches of snow, and most places saw that.

Considering it snowed on and off for nearly 36 hours… these snow totals were quite low.

Monday Discussion : Final Snow Forecast 2/22/21

Timing:
– 10am to 1pm : Snow starts from west to east
– 12pm to 3pm : Snow, possibly heavy
– 2pm to 5pm : Snow tapers from west to east
 
Impact/Conditions:
– Short duration event (cold front)
– Temps 30° to 35° = wet snow
– Potential heavy snow for a short period (1″/hr)
– Main roads may be mostly wet due to milder temps
– Heavy snow = snow covered roads & low visibility
 
Snow Accumulations:
– Entire Hudson Valley : 1 to 3 inches of snow
** higher elevations (over 1000 feet) could see locally 4″ or 5″)
A short duration cold front will bring a burst of snow on Monday.
Futurecast Radar : 9am to 7pm
The timing is the middle of the day, and could cause some travel problems in the heavier bursts of snow. Temps will be near or even a degree above freezing, giving us a wet snow. Milder temps will cause snow to struggle to stick to roads, except for when snowfall rates are increased. We could see a period of snow where rates are 1″ per hour for a brief time between 12pm and 3pm. During that time, visibilities less than 1/4 mile are expected, and snow will accumulate to all surfaces, so travel could be very hazardous. Everything exits the area between 3pm and 6pm from west to east.
When all is said and done, 1 to 3 inches are likely around the region. Higher elevations above 1000 feet could see slightly higher totals, so 4 or 5 inches can’t be ruled out there. Even in some of the hill towns of the valley, 3 or 4 inches can’t be ruled out. Due to the milder temps… elevation will make a difference in your snow totals on Monday afternoon.
 
We’ll try to share updates as we go through the morning and afternoon on Monday.

Sunday Discussion : A Little More Snow on Monday

Saturday was a decent winter day around the region… with sun, flurries, and a breeze… with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.  Sunday looks just a bit better, with more sun, no flurries, and less of a breeze.  Highs on Sunday should be creep near the freezing mark.  We hope everyone has a great Sunday around the region.

The thing everyone’s eyes are on, is Monday afternoon’s wet snow potential.

Preliminary Summary:

– Cold front with snow pushes through 11am to 5pm Monday
– Temps likely 31 to 34 degrees
– Snow rates could be rather heavy for a short period of time
– PM Commute could be tricky.
– Accumulations… a coating to 3 inches appear possible

Futurecast Radar : 1am to 7pm Monday

You can see the cold front approaching the Hudson Valley from the west on Monday.  A few snow flakes are possible near sunrise with a very weak warm front pushing through.  Winds shift out of the south, and will bring afternoon highs into the low and possibly even mid 30s.  The front pushes east, and reaches the Hudson Valley between 10am and 1pm… and then ends between 3 and 6pm.  The snow only lasts for a few hours, but could come down heavily for a short period of time.  In that short period of time… here is the projected snow amounts…

The heaviest snow is likely in NE PA, where a quick 3 to 6 inches seems possible.  In the Catskills, we could see the same thing… a brief but potent snow, that brings 3 to 6 inches of snow.  In the Hudson Valley, it’s a bit less… a general 1 to 3 inches of snow.  This is an indication of how hard it may snow Monday afternoon.  The snow is in the region for roughly 2 to 5 hours…. and in that time we could get 1 to 3 inches of snow.

The good news, is that the afternoon temps may be a bit above freezing… 33 or 34 degrees in spots.  This could make for wet… instead of white roads.  However, working against that idea, is the potentially heavy snow rates.  If it snows heavy for a couple hours… then even with the milder temps, it will still accumulate on roads.  So we’ll take a closer look on Sunday, to see just how this snow event seems likely to unfold.  But keep in mind, that your Monday afternoon travel plans could be affected.

Have a great Sunday!

Winter Storm Update : 11:30am

“Captains Log : Round 742583.9… we’ve received word from the federation, that the snow may never end. They have advised us that because of the wintry anomaly, that reinforcements can not penetrate the snow shield. We are on our own, and will need to face the white winter threat alone…”
Joking aside, we know everyone is becoming weary of this weak and disorganized…. but stubborn and persistent storm. The radar clearly shows that the snow has redeveloped over the region, despite all appearances yesterday that this system was over. The snow is moving from SW to NE and redeveloping as it does.  Notice the radar fill in over eastern PA , and that is heading our way.
Radar Loop : 10:20am – 11:20am
So expect periods of on and off light to moderate snow, to continue through the afternoon hours. Guidance suggests the snow tapers from west to east slowly… beginning after 2pm, but possibly not tapering off completely until 8pm. So conditions are not likely to improve this afternoon. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s due to the snow… and could rise around 30° if the snow stops.
ADDITIONAL accumulation could be another coating to as much as 2 inches in some spots. That’s on top of what was on the ground as of 10am this morning. That should bring most locations to a final accumulation of 3 to 7 inches when all is said and done. Conditions should gradually improve overnight… but will be very cold, with lows falling into the teens.
Feel free to continue providing us with snow totals, observations and road conditions. Either in the comments below, or in the Observation thread from earlier this morning. Stay warm, and stay safe Hudson Valley. As Alex would say… “Keep calm…. and Weather On.” ???

Friday Discussion : Disorganized Snows Continue

Our weak storm system left a lot to be desired on Thursday.  Snows fell across the region, but only the lower Hudson Valley saw accumulations over 2 inches.  The remainder of the region saw a dusting to an inch or two at most.  The departure of the steady snows to our east caused concern about the forecast, and claims that the storm was a bust began to emerge.  But at least for the moment… this storm is not a bust.

3am Radar Loop

Finally, after over 12 hours, the radar is FINALLY showing signs of life for the Hudson Valley.  A band of steady light to moderate snow is developing, and pushing into the Hudson Valley for the early morning.  This should lead to an inch or two of snow by early/mid morning in the Hudson Valley.  The radar is filling in, much like the guidance suggested it would.

Futurecast Radar : 8am to 8pm.

You can see on the simulation, that the light snow overspreads the entire HV for the morning hours, and could lead to another 2 to 5 inches of snow around the region.  This is a tricky forecast, as it relies on the storm to behave exactly as the model suggests.  When all is said and done on Friday, these additional totals are possible, on top of what fell Thursday…

Truth be told, a lot more 2 to 5 inch totals at the end of the day, but we shall see how it unfolds.  Everything should begin to taper off late in the afternoon on Friday.  Take it slow travelling on Friday.

2/18/21 Winter Storm Afternoon Update

The 1st stage of our storm is just about complete. However… we have about 3 or 4 more stages of this storm to push through. This weak and disorganized system is going to bring a lot of uncertainty with it. So lets break this system into pieces to discuss.

Stage 1 (2am – 2pm) :

The radar loop shows how the first area of moderate to heavy snow is pushing mostly southeast of our area. Areas south of I-84 did get in on some of the heavier snow, and we have seen reports of 1 to 3 inches of snow in parts of Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam counties. But the remainder of the region has anywhere from a dusting to an inch after Stage 1.  This is going to give the impression of a completely busted forecast.  The forecast of 3 to 7 inches is no where near being verified for 75% of the region, mainly anyone north of I-84.  This was not entirely unexpected… although guidance did originally suggest this batch of snow pushed a bit further north before moving out.

Stage 2 (2pm – 8pm)

This is the futurecast radar of the storm from 1pm to 8pm.  You can see the area of moderate snow pushing out to sea in the first frame at 1pm.  Then as we go through the next 2 or 3 hours, the guidance believes an area of light to moderate snow will fill in on radar across northeast PA and into the Hudson Valley.  This is due to considerable upward motion (vertical velocity) in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

The yellows and oranges indicate fairly good upward motion in the atmosphere, which could cause snow to develop and enhance, even though the radar looks quiet now.  If this is correct… despite the radar indicating that the snow is just about over… we should see the radar begin filling in, and spreading into the Hudson Valley through the afternoon hours.  For this reason, we anticipate periods of light to moderate snow through the afternoon, and into the early evening hours.  Accumulations over this time are likely to be a dusting to an inch or so… maybe an inch and a half in a few spots.

Stage 3 (8pm Thu – 8am Fri)

This futurecast simulation from 8pm tonight to 8am on Friday shows repeated periods of on and off light to moderate snow.  The lift in the atmosphere associated with the coastal low pressure appears to be enough to generate repeated areas of steady snow, that will accumulate slowly… but steadily through Thursday night and into Friday morning.  Here is the snowfall map associated with this 12 hour period of time…


This map is projected that for every 1 inch of liquid, we would see 10 inches of snow.  Actual snowfall ratios could be closer to 12 to 16 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid.  Here’s a visual representation of how the snow ratios could set up.


So the overnight snow amounts could be closer to 1.5 inches, possibly even 2 inches in the Hudson Valley.  A very minor difference… but could make a difference when compiled into the total storm.

Stage 4 (8am to 7pm Friday) :

You see that during the daylight hours on Friday (from 8am to 7pm), that the snow continues to fall around the Hudson Valley.  It may taper off at times, and fall steadily at others… but the snow is clearly in our region through the day on Friday, per the computer guidance.  Once again, these snowfall rates are not very impressive.  Here are the projected snowfall amounts from 8am to 7pm on Friday…

So once again… another 12 hour period of time, where another 1 to 2 inches of snow can fall.  These snow rates are not overly impressive, but the potential for an extended period of time, with persistent and consistent light to moderate snows.  This could add up over time… and by the time all is said and done, not counting what has fallen so far… here is the projected additional snow… after 1pm Thursday…

So in conclusion… when we eliminate the snow from this morning, that clipped the lower Hudson Valley and was focused south of the region… you can see that the guidance still believes that additional areas of persistent light to moderate snow will develop and fall in the Hudson Valley.  An additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible… mostly in the mid Hudson Valley.  The Catskills and upper HV may see slightly less snow… but even there, an additional 2 to 3 inches of snow is likely.

Could this be wrong?  Absolutely!  Any time there is a weak storm system, with an expectation that snow will develop right over top of us, and possibly continue for such an extended period of time… it’s entirely possible that the computer model is wrong about the development of light to moderate snow.  It is equally plausible, that the model does not show enough snow, that the upward motion that is expected is more significant… and the moderate snow becomes heavy at times.  These type of scenarios are very difficult to pinpoint… so we will trust that the model is properly projecting the atmospheric dynamics that will cause snow to develop and enhance over the Hudson Valley for the next 36 hours.

So in conclusion…. “No… this storm is not over.” … and at least for now, this storm is not a bust.  Be sure to anticipate a snowy, and slick Thursday afternoon and evening.  A snowy Thursday overnight… as well as a snowy Friday morning and afternoon, before things finally begin tapering off Friday night.  More updates as necessary.

Thursday Discussion : Final Snowfall Forecast Thu 2/18 – Fri 2/19

Hot on the heels of a Monday night storm that brought a wintry mix to the Hudson Valley, comes another snow threat.  A relatively weak system developing in the southeast, will push into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.  This will spread snow northeast, into the Hudson Valley.

Timing:
– 2am to 9am : Scattered Light snow showers possible
– 9am to 1pm : Steady snow develops from SW to NE
– 1pm to 6am Fri : Periods of light to moderate snow expected
– 6am to 3pm Fri : Periods of light snow, gradually tapering off

Impact/Conditions:
– Long duration snow event
– Periods of light to moderate snow
– Winds not an issue
– Temps in the 20s, snow accumulates on all surfaces
– Snow covered & icy roads likely

Snow Accumulations:
– Entire Hudson Valley Region : 3 to 7 inches (locally 8″+)

Additional Discussion to follow separately.