Thursday Discussion : Rain Mixing with High Elevation Wet Snows

We hope everyone had a wonderful Wednesday.
Futurecast Radar : 12am to 12pm Thursday
This futurecast radar loop shows the 12 hours from midnight tonight, through noon on Thursday. Cold air will be rushing into the region overnight. Temps in the valley are still in the low to mid 50s at midnight, but will tumble into the upper 30s and near 40° by 6am in the valley. The Catskills will be even colder, in the mid 30s.
…Valley Areas…
So the valley areas will see periods of rain into the morning hours. While cold will be sinking into the region, it just won’t get quite cold enough in the valley Thursday morning. With temps in the upper 30s to near 40°… the valley likely won’t see much more than some wet snow flakes mixing in at the end.
… Higher Elevations & Catskills …
The higher elevations could be a slightly different story. If temps can fall into the mid 30s, a period of steady wet snow is possible before tapering off by late morning. This could result in a slushy coating to an inch or two on grassy areas… and areas over 1500 feet in elevation could see 2 or 3 inches of wet snow.
 
We’ll monitor the situation Thursday morning to see if any changes to the forecast are expected. But the precipitation should exit the region before noon on Thursday. The afternoon will see mainly cloudy skies with temps in the mid 40s. Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Clouds with Afternoon Showers

A cold front with some rather cold air will approach the region on Wednesday.

We might see a little sunshine in the morning as the clouds build in across the region.  Winds will still be out of the south, so temperatures should climb into the 60s around the region out ahead of the cold front, despite the clouds.  As the afternoon moves on, scattered rain showers will begin moving in from the west.  The showers will be rather scattered in nature, so many locations may stay mostly dry through much of the afternoon.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Wed – 12am Thu

The showers will increase in number and intensity as the evening progresses, but you can see on the radar simulation that the areas of rain are shower-like in nature rather than a steady rain.  But as we go through the night, low pressure will develop near the coast, and that will cause precipitation to expand in coverage overnight.

Futurecast Radar : 12am to 12pm Thursday

One of the questions has been “will it snow on April Fool’s Day?”  The answer to that question has looked increasingly like the answer is ‘not likely’.  The cold air will be rushing southward early on Thursday, but the moisture will also begin exiting the region at the same time.  In addition, the cold won’t press as rapidly south as would be necessary… temps in the valley by sunrise on Thursday are expected in the upper 30s to near 40°.  So mainly rain is likely in the valley areas.  The Catskills could be a different story, where temperatures will fall into the low and mid 30s.  It’s in the Catskills where we have the best chance of seeing the rain change to wet snow before ending.  A slushy inch or two in Sullivan, Delaware, western Ulster and western Greene are possible.

We’ll keep tabs on the situation as it begins to unfold, and share updates as needed.  But it looks like a widespread April Fool’s snow is unlikely… which I’m sure won’t hurt the feelings of most folks.  Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Mild Springtime Sun

After a day featuring cold and blustery winds, Tuesday will see the winds shift out of the southwest once again, allowing the milder air to return to the Hudson Valley.

Sunshine and blue skies will be the primary weather feature for our Tuesday.  A mild SW breeze will usher in milder air to the region.  Afternoon highs in the low 60s in much of the Hudson Valley, with upper 50s expected in the higher elevations.  Tuesday night we’ll see clouds increase overnight, with patchy fog by Wednesday morning.  Wednesday’s weather looks more unsettled, as another approaching frontal system will bring the threat of rain showers back to the area.

Futurecast Radar : 8am to 8pm Wednesday

Rain showers and afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected for our Wednesday afternoon.  The thing to watch, will be as the front continues moving east, a low pressure will develop along it.  That will likely enhance the precipitation Wednesday night, and give us a steady period of rain.  As the front moves in, temps will drop into the 30s, and that could result in rain changing to wet snow… especially in the Catskills.  We’ll watch closely to see if an April Fools wet snow event is possible… but right now, the potential in the valley looks to be 20% or less.

For today, hopefully you can find a way to enjoy this fine spring day.  Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Blustery Chilly Winds

A wind advisory remains in effect for the entire Hudson Valley as we kick off the work week around the Hudson Valley.  Strong NW winds have howled through the night around the region behind a strong cold front that pushed through Sunday evening.  Gusts up to 50mph are possible, but the strongest winds are likely to be felt in the Catskills, where gusts up to 60mph are possible.

Futurecast Wind Gust Map : 6am to 6pm Monday

This futurecast image shows the maximum wind gusts each hour from 6am to 6pm on Monday.  The first thing that jumps out at you, is that the wind gusts steadily decrease throughout the day.  Gusts at sunrise are between 30 and 45mph in the valley, with gusts in the Catskills between 45mph and 60mph.  Those gusts will be the peak gusts of the day.  By lunch time, gusts are expected between 20mph to 35mph… and by late afternoon gusts between 20mph and 30mph are expected.  So the good news through the day on Monday is that conditions will be gradually improving throughout.  We’ll have lots of sunshine and blue skies… but afternoon highs will struggle to get to 50°, likely falling short in many places.

Temps Monday night will fall near 30° in much of the valley, before winds shift around to the southwest by Tuesday morning.  That southerly wind will help pull temperatures back up above average Tuesday afternoon, with highs around 60° expected in the Hudson Valley.  Clouds will roll in Tuesday night, and by Wednesday afternoon, we may have more rain showers to contend with around the region.

So a very blustery start to the final week of March.  Hopefully everyone’s week gets off to a great start.  Have a great Monday!

Sunday Afternoon Radar Discussion 3-28-21

It’s been a soggy Sunday for the Hudson Valley, but the steady rain showers have now moved northeast of the region, allowing the majority of the area to dry out a bit. Cloudy skies will linger in the region through this evening, despite the rain tapering off in the Hudson Valley. But a glance at the current radar shows some another batch of rain off to our west, and that is heading our way.
A wind advisory is in effect for the region tonight (and even a high wind warning for Greene and Columbia county), as winds tonight and Monday will gust up to 50mph in the valley, and possibly as high as 60mph in Columbia and Greene Counties. The cold front that will usher in the gusty winds tonight, has a squall line of heavy downpours and gusty winds associated with it. Thunder and lightning also can’t be ruled out. That squall line will reach the Hudson Valley between 6pm and 8pm. Areas west of the Hudson River are likely to see the squall line arrive between 6 and 7pm…. while areas east of the Hudson River likely seeing the front arrive between 7 and 8pm.
 
There are no severe thunderstorm watches in effect, but a localized damaging wind gust over 50mph cannot be ruled out. But as the front pushes through, most of us will see a brief period of heavier rain showers, a couple rumbles of thunder, and some gusty winds. After the squall line pushes through, the rain showers will last for an hour or two before tapering off. At which point, the wind advisory will take effect, and the strong NW winds will be with us through the overnight, and through most of our Monday. If any watches or warnings are issued, we’ll be sure to pass it along. Otherwise, we hope everyone enjoys the remainder of their Sunday afternoon.

Saturday Discussion : Fine Spring Day

While the wind was the major story on Friday… what may have slipped under the radar was the fact that we set a new record high temperature in Poughkeepsie for the date.  The afternoon high in Poughkeepsie was 79°, which smashed the old record of 73° which was set in 1949.  It’s not every day that you have temps nearly 30 degrees above average… so whatever Saturday throws our way, likely will pale in comparison.

With that said… Saturday does look very nice for anyone with outdoor plans.  Clouds should give way to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon hours.  Winds out of the west/northwest will still allow us to climb near 60° in the valley, and mid 50s in the Catskills.  While much cooler than Friday… it’s still a good 5 to 10 degrees above average.  Hopefully everyone can find a way to enjoy this fine spring weather… especially considering that some unsettled weather is on the way for Sunday.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 8pm Sunday

Our next storm system approaches on Sunday, and should spread some rain showers into the region Sunday morning.  Those rain showers could fall on and off into the afternoon hours on Sunday.  The clouds and rain showers will likely hold temps down in the low to mid 50s for much of the day.  A SW wind could give us breaks of sun during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front late Sunday afternoon.  That could give us some atmospheric instability, and possibly touch off some late day thunderstorms as the front pushes into the Hudson Valley.  We’ll have to monitor the system as it gets closer… because a couple of those late day storms could have some pop… and could be locally strong.

But for Saturday… we hope you all have a wonderful spring day!  Enjoy!!

Friday Discussion : Winds Return to the Region

A strong storm system will pass by to our northwest on Friday, and as it moves by, a few rain showers are expected in the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 6pm Friday

A few showers are likely during the morning, before the winds become the primary story for our Friday weather.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday afternoon and evening, as WSW winds howl around the back side of the low pressure.  Winds could gust at 40 to 50mph at times around the region.

Winds will persist into Saturday morning, but the peak wind gusts are certainly going to be during the afternoon and early evening on Friday… when gusts of 35mph to 50mph are possible.  Gusty winds will continue after that, but winds Friday night and Saturday will be less intense (20mph to 35mph).

So make sure you’re prepared for some strong winds Friday afternoon, and possibly a sporadic power outage or two.  On the positive side, temps will be around 70° Friday afternoon… so it will be warm, despite the strong wind gusts.  We hope you have a wonderful Friday.

Thursday Discussion : Spring Surge

Rain showers associated with a warm front pushed through on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  That will also result in some patchy dense fog for Thursday morning.  But SW winds will break up the fog by mid morning on Thursday, and give us partly to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon hours.  Those same winds will pull warm air into the Hudson Valley, and give us afternoon highs in the upper 60s to around 70°… roughly 15 to 20 degrees above average.

A beautiful Thursday around the Hudson Valley, as we watch an approaching storm system for Thursday night into Friday.

Futurecast Radar : 8pm Thursday – 8pm Friday

An intensifying storm system will pass by to our northwest Thursday night into Friday.  The bulk of the moisture will stay off to our northwest… but some scattered rain showers are likely Thursday night and Friday morning as the system passes by.  But the main threat for the Hudson Valley will come in the form of strong wind gusts that will be wrapping around the deepening low pressure system.  Winds will intensify out of the west/southwest on Friday… and the winds will be strong enough to likely result in Wind Advisories being posted.

Sustained winds out of the southwest between 15mph and 25mph are possible… and wind gusts between 35mph and 55mph are expected.  This could lead to scattered power outages around the Hudson Valley due to down trees and powerlines.  Something we’ll be monitoring closely as we approach the end of the work week.

But for now… lets all enjoy some gorgeous weather on Thursday!  Spring is here, and it’s well deserved, Hudson Valley!  Have a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Another Beauty

Not a lot needs to be said about what’s coming our way for Tuesday.  It’s going to look a lot like Monday… just a bit better…

It’s been a while since we’ve had a weather map that looked this good.  Sunshine filtered by high clouds, a light SE wind, and temps climbing into the mid 60s around the Hudson Valley.  If conditions are just right, a few locations could make a run at 70° for an afternoon high on Tuesday.  Hopefully you can enjoy the day!

Monday Afternoon Discussion : Simply Beautiful!

In early spring, when you get a large ridge of high pressure over the eastern US, the end result on our weather can be quite amazing.  That’s what we’re seeing this week.

As of 2pm Monday afternoon, we’ve got partly to mostly sunny skies around the region, and temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the valley.  These temps are 15° to 20° above average, providing for some absolutely amazing conditions for mid March.  These temps will be with us through the rest of the work week, as high pressure will slowly move out to sea through the week.  We’ll have a couple chances at some light showers and drizzle mid and late week, as a couple storm systems skirt about the region.

Futurecast Radar : 8am Wednesday – 8pm Friday

The 2nd half of the week looks very mild, but we may have to dodge a shower or two, as some storm systems move through the eastern US.  We’ll keep an eye on the specifics.  But for now, a beautiful week lies ahead.  Enjoy!