Sunday Afternoon Discussion : Near Record Raw Day

It’s hard to believe it’s May 30th, when your 1pm conditions are…
Temperatures: 45° to 49°
Wind Chills : 40° to 45°
Winds : NE at 6 to 12mph (gusts to 15mph)
 
Radar Loop : 11:30am – 1pm
But alas, “it is what it is” as they say. Rain showers have pushed mostly north of the Hudson Valley, with the heaviest rain at this hour being felt in the Catskills, Columbia and Greene counties. A bit of a lull in the radar at this hour of the central Hudson Valley, but even where the radar looks unimpressive, we’re seeing a steady light drizzle/light rain shower. So we don’t expect conditions to dry out any time soon. In fact, when we look at the radar to our south… we see another area of moderate to heavy rain showers developing over New Jersey. Those showers are pressing from south to north, thanks to our developing coastal low pressure system.
Futurecast Radar : 12pm Sunday – 12am Monday
Guidance suggests that the batch of moderate to heavier showers will arrive back in the Hudson Valley by 3 or 4pm… and stick with us through sunset. After sunset, the showers are expected to become scattered and taper off after midnight. Temperatures during that entire time are likely to hold steady in the mid to upper 40s… nearly 30 degrees below average!
 
Looking at Monday, a few scattered showers and patchy areas of drizzle will linger into the morning hours. But we’re hopeful that the upper level low will push northeastward quick enough to allow sunshine to mix in with the clouds… especially during the afternoon. Monday temperatures will start in the low to mid 50s… but should climb into the low and mid 60s during the afternoon, thanks to peeks of sunshine. Lets cross our fingers, that Monday afternoon will turn out beter acrors the region.
 
For now, make sure you bundle up and stay warm… on this near record cold afternoon.

Friday Discussion : Soaking Rain on the Way

The timing isn’t ideal… as we head into the holiday weekend.  Many residents with outdoor plans this weekend may grimace at the weekend forecast.  But in the end, considering how dry the region has been in May, some much needed rain is on the way to the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm to 6pm Friday

Increasing clouds and highs in the 60s are likely on Friday, out ahead of the approaching low pressure system to our west.  The Hudson Valley is likely going to be dry through early afternoon… with rain showers likely developing between 2pm and 5pm.  With scattered showers likely in most places by the evening commute.

Futurecast Radar : Friday 6pm to Saturday 6am

A soaking rain moves into the region near or shortly after sunset… and a “dark and stormy night” is on the way for Friday night.  Expect periods of rain to come down moderate to heavy at times through the night, so that even by sunrise on Saturday, we’ll likely have steady rain in the region.  Temperatures will tumble as the rain sets in… likely falling into the low 50s at first, and then into the 40s as the night wears on.  Rainfall amounts by sunrise could exceed 1 inch of rain.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 2pm Saturday

The scattered rain showers are likely to be with us through the morning hours on Saturday.  Just how early the rain showers taper off remains to be seen.  What we are likely to see, is a cold, blustery and raw Saturday across the Hudson Valley.  Temperatures could hold in the upper 40s… yes, 40s… through early afternoon, as the low clouds and drizzle will hold the cold air associated with this Canadian air mass in place.  If the showers taper off, and the clouds give way to brighter skies… we could see afternoon highs into the low and middle 50s.  But right now, it looks like temps will struggle to 50° Saturday afternoon… a solid 20 degrees below average.

These temperatures are a bit optimistic, as it is banking on breaks in the clouds late in the day allowing temps to climb into the mid 50s.  But even if this map takes place, temps would be a solid 15 to 20 degrees below average.

When all is said and done, the potential rainfall across the region could be 1 to 2 inches… with most of the region seeing between an inch and an inch and a half (1.0 – 1.5″).  While the timing is inconvenient… local farmers and growers will tell you that we need this rainfall.  The ground has been drying out over the past couple weeks, as what has been a dry spring became even drier due to a lack of rainfall over the past 10 days.  This soaking rain over a 24 hour period is a very welcome sight, and when you look at the mid range forecast, additional showers are possible Sunday afternoon and night… and then again mid to late next week.

Don’t Lose Hope…
Where we may get lucky… is for anyone with Memorial Day plans.  While the day commemorates those who have paid the ultimate price in order to fight for our freedoms, many families use the day as an opportunity to get together and enjoy a barbeque, and observe the unofficial start of summer.  This year, with the pandemic fresh in everyones mind… this Memorial Day is likely to see even more families trying to get together for the first time in a year or more.  We’ll keep our eyes on things… but signs are that clouds could give way to increasing sunshine on Monday, with highs climbing into the upper 60s and near 70°.  It definitely won’t be the hot, unofficial start to summer that many may be accustomed to, but it could end up being a dry afternoon for families to get together.  Check with us through the weekend for updates.

Have a great Friday!

Wednesday Discussion : Late Day Storm Concern

The heat will return to the region on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, setting the stage for late afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms.

Partly to mostly sunny skies will be with us through the morning and into the early afternoon.  SW winds will usher in the heat, and we’ll have afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90°.  Humidity levels won’t be too oppressive, but there is no getting around the fact that Wednesday will be a hot one.  As we move through the afternoon hours, a few isolated thunderstorm cells may develop out ahead of the front.  Those potential storm cells could contain some locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

Futurecast Radar : 2pm to 10pm Wednesday

On this futurecast radar, you can see that the showers and thunderstorms are not organized, so not everyone will likely see one.

Timing:
– 4pm to 8pm : Isolated thunderstorm cell could develop, could be severe with potentially damaging wind gusts
– 8pm to 11pm : Scattered showers and thunderstorms, not likely to be severe.

When the main cluster of showers and thunderstorms reach our region, it will likely be between 8pm and 10pm… so the severe threat associated with the main line of showers and storms will diminish.  Our primary concern for severe weather is likely with the isolated T-Storms that could develop.  Due to the threat that one or two of the thunderstorm cells could contain strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, much of the region will be in a “Slight threat” of severe weather.  As a result, we’re going to issue our first StormPacts scale for this event.

AVERAGE confidence in this event, because we have high confidence the front will push into the region late Wednesday, but a low to average idea of if and where the isolated storm cells will develop ahead of the front.

LOW Impacts with this event, because of the limited number of thunderstorm cells expected to develop out ahead of the front.  We don’t expect a widespread severe outbreak, only a few localities are expected to see thunderstorms capable of severe weather.  If and where a severe thunderstorm hits… the impact in that location could be significant, with winds over 50mph capable of causing damage.  But in the scope of the Hudson Valley as a whole, the total impact is expected to be low.

ISOLATED power outages are possible, with only a few strong to severe thunderstorm cells expected to develop in the Hudson Valley.  A few outages are surely possible if one or two severe cells do push through the region.  Ultimately time will tell just how many storm cells develop in our neck of the woods.

We’ll do our best to cover the event as it begins to unfold Wednesday afternoon.  Stay cool Hudson Valley… it’s going to be hot, in addition to the concern for a severe storm or two.  Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : The Big Cool Down

A hot summer weekend is now in the books, with highs in the mid 80s across the region.  Some major changes are in store when you walk out your door on Monday.

Clouds will be widespread around the region to start the day on Monday, due to an area of scattered showers expected in southwestern PA.  Here locally, we just expect some mostly cloudy skies, but increasing breaks of sun are expected as we move through the day.  Some much cooler air will be in the valley to start the day on Monday, and that’s thanks to a Canadian high pressure that has clipped through New England.  As a result, our Monday morning temps will start out in the low to mid 50s… and gradually climb through the day.  Afternoon highs will struggle into the low 70s… a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than our previous day’s highs.  Instead of a day that feels like the middle of summer, our work week starts out feeling much more like spring.

Tuesday we’ll watch as winds shift back out of the SW, and that will raise temperatures a bit higher, likely into the mid or upper 70s for highs.  Wednesday things get even hotter, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and possibly near 90°, under a mix of clouds and sunshine.  So after a couple spring like days, we’ll have yet another hot summer day to contend with by Wednesday.  Then, a weak cold front should swing through… and we’ll watch temperatures slowly fall on Thursday and by Friday highs again likely won’t escape the 60s.

A true rollercoaster of a weather week lies ahead of us.  Make sure your lap bar is in the locked position, and you’ve secured any loose objects like hats and sunglasses.  Please remain seated, and we hope you enjoy your ride…. Dispatch.  (sorry, my old roller coaster riding days are showing).  Have a great day!

Sunday Afternoon Update – Powered by SunCommon

A hot Sunday afternoon around the Hudson Valley, with temperatures around the region more typical of mid July rather than late May. 3pm temps in Poughkeepsie are clocking in at 85° and the rest of the valley is generally in the mid 80s as well. The Catskills are a few degrees cooler, in the upper 70s, with Monticello coming in at 78° last hour.
A glance at the current radar loop, shows a few spotty rain showers scattered aroun the middle of NY state. A isolated shower, possibly even a rumble of thunder, in the Catskills and Ulster county, as a weak cold front drifts southward. But the main impact as the front pushes south, will be mostly cloudy skies, maybe a spotty sprinkle. The threat of an isolated shower or thundershower (less than 30% chance) will be with us through sunset.
As we head into the evening, winds wills shift out of the north, and some cooler air will sink into our area. Overnight lows should dip into the low 50s, and even some upper 40s are possible. A great night to open the windows and let some fresh air in. Monday will be dramatically cooler than our Sunday. Morning clouds will mix with increasing breaks of sun, but a cool, Canadian air mass will mean afternoon highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s… roughly 15 degrees cooler than temperatures at the time of this post. So today feels like summer, tomorrow will feel like spring… maybe by Tuesday it will feel like winter? (kidding) ?
And once again, this Sunday afternoon update is brought to you by our partners at SunCommon. SunCommon’s mission is “Building a brighter future for Hudson Valley homeowners.”. So if you’re looking for information on solar energy for your home, be sure to check out our partners at SunCommon.

Weekend Discussion : The Heat is Here

A large ridge of high pressure has taken control of the eastern US, and the payoff comes in the form of well above average temperatures.

Morning temps won’t be quite as cool as the previous mornings, with lows bottoming out around 60°.  Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds for most of the day.  Temps will quickly rise through the 70s and into the low 80s by noon.  A northwest wind will usher in some relatively dry air… which should keep dew points rather low, and humidity levels comfortable.  But even with low humidity, the heat will be in place, and afternoon highs across the valley should rise into the mid and upper 80s (Catskills in the low 80s).  There could be one or two spotty showers or thundershowers develop around parts of the region in the afternoon… but with chances under 30%, the vast majority of us should remain dry.

The mild air will hold on for Saturday evening, with temperatures only falling into the mid 60s for overnight lows… so some residents may want to get the A/C ready.  That leads us to a Sunday where morning temperatures will quickly climb into the 70s by mid morning, and 80s by noon.  Breezy northwest winds again will keep humidity from getting too uncomfortable, but with afternoon highs in the mid 80s Sunday afternoon, will again be the sparse threat of a shower or thunderstorm.  But again… on the whole, a very warm, nice summer day appears likely.

It may only be the 2nd half of May… but we’re looking at a weekend with both days with highs in the mid 80s.  A summer like weekend ahead.  We hope you all have a great weekend!

Wednesday Discussion : Summer Heat Preview

A large ridge of high pressure has set up over the eastern United States.  The result is a SW wind, that is allowing temperatures to surge into the low and mid 80s around the Hudson Valley.

Mostly sunny skies across the Hudson Valley for our Wednesday.  The building ridge over the eastern US is allowing temperatures to climb well above average.  The average high for this time of year is around 70° in the valley, and mid 60s in the Catskills.  Strong high pressure will drive our afternoon highs into the low and mid 80s.  Low humidity will keep the heat from feeling oppressive, but the feel of a comfortable mid summer day will be hard to deny.  Mostly clear skies at night will allow temps to fall back into the 60s, and even into the upper 50s before dawn on Thursday.  Thursday looks very similar to Wednesday in many ways.  A shifting wind out of the southeast will possibly bring slightly cooler temps to the Hudson Valley.  Something for us to monitor… especially as we head to the weekend.

But the large ridge of high pressure over the eastern US is clear to see on the futurecast satellite/radar:

Futurecast Satellite & Radar : Wednesday 6am – Thursday 6pm

The eastern US is shielded from unsettled weather, as you can clearly see the moisture streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico and surging into the Upper Mid West, and rotating into the Great Lakes.  This flow is the result of a huge ridge of high pressure over the eastern US.  We’ll have to monitor how this ridge develops and progresses as we move toward the weekend.  But regardless, a very warm next couple days is expected.  Make sure you plan accordingly.

We hope you have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : High Pressure Takes Over

After a weekend where we saw morning sunshine fade behind afternoon clouds, and those afternoon clouds caused some scattered showers to develop… we are watching as high pressure takes over the eastern US.  The increasing high pressure over the eastern US will mean partly to mostly sunny skies and  dry conditions.

Monday will be partly to mostly sunny during the morning hours, with morning temps starting in the upper 40s and low 50s.  The afternoon hours will see a few extra clouds, but still mostly sunny skies should hold their ground.  A stray afternoon sprinkle can’t be ruled out, but nothing on the order of what we saw yesterday.  Afternoon highs should rise into the low to mid 70s around the valley.  Tuesday then looks to improve on Monday’s conditions around the region, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s around the region.

As we arrive at mid week, we’ll see increasing warmth around the region.  The building high pressure over the east will allow for afternoon highs to climb toward 80°, and even into the low 80s by Wednesday afternoon.  The same goes for Thursday afternoon, with possibly mid 80s for afternoon highs.  The humidity in the region looks to be quite low for the days ahead, making for some very warm… but comfortable afternoons around the region.  Friday looks a bit more uncertain, with a chance of showers moving into the northeast… which would hold temperatures down in the 70s to close out the week.  Something we’ll be monitoring as we move through the week… you can get our latest ideas for afternoon highs at www.hudsonvalleyweather.com

Hope your week gets off to a great start!

Friday Discussion : Spring Settles In

The past week has featured cool weather, at least by mid May standards.  The next several days will bring an end to that trend.

We’ll have mostly sunny skies to start our Friday.  Temps in the 40s will quickly rise into the 60s and approach 70° by mid day.  Winds will be light out of the west, and we’ll see a few clouds develop during the afternoon hours.  Afternoon highs should reach the low 70s across the valley, and mid to upper 60s in the Catskills.  Our afternoon clouds may contain a few rain sprinkles in a couple parts of the valley.  Any spot showers will be very brief, but we can’t rule out a stray rain sprinkle.  However, in total… Friday looks like an outstanding Spring day around the region… especially compared to our recent weather.

Saturday and Sunday both look partly to mostly sunny.  Winds will be rather calm, but out of the SW.   That will allow for mostly sunny skies this weekend, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s for high.    When we compare the average highs for this time of year… this weekend looks right on the mark.  Hopefully everyone can get out and take advantage.

TGIF and have a great day!

Wednesday Discussion : Cool Sunshine

A cool air mass for mid May is in place over the northeast, which is giving us nice but cool weather this week.

Lots of sunshine and blue skies are expected across the Hudson Valley for our Wednesday.  A northwest breeze will continue to funnel cooler than average temperatures into the Hudson Valley.  Average highs this time of year are right around 70°.  Highs on Tuesday were roughly 10 degrees below average, closer to 60°.  On Wednesday, we’ll do a little better, climbing into the mid 60s for many parts of the valley.  But that is still about 5 degrees below average.  But with high pressure in control over the eastern US, the Hudson Valley will be mostly sunny and dry for the next couple days.

As we move through the rest of the week, we’ll see temperatures slowly increase day over day.  By Friday we should be near 70°, and the weekend is looking potentially gorgeous with highs near or a degree or two above 70° Saturday and Sunday.  Another plus… in a year that feels defined by strong winds… the wind over the coming 4 or 5 days, the winds will be virtually a non-factor.  Winds between 0 and 5 miles per hour will be common, as we settle in under the high pressure.  One of the questions for the weekend, will be due to the rather calm winds, will low clouds develop and provide a few spot showers at times this weekend.  In general, we think the weekend looks dry and beautiful… but a stray shower or two may be something to contend with this weekend.  We’ll monitor it as we go through the week.

Another question that many people likely have has to do with drought conditions and recent rainfall.  In that department, we have some good news…

Rainfall over the past weekend was pretty close to what was expected.  A general 7 tenths to 1 inch of rain fell around the region.  With the region in an abnormally dry condition at the beginning of May, this steady light to moderate rain went a long way to helping the situation.  In looking at the last 60 days, the Hudson Valley and Catskills are increasingly close to average in terms of rainfall… at least in the range of acceptability.  The next 7 days look rather dry across the region, due to high pressure parked over the eastern US.  So getting that soaking rainfall over the weekend was definitely a big boost.

Have a great Wednesday!