Wednesday Discussion : Heatwave Day 4… the Final Day

In what has become routine for the Hudson Valley, we’ve got a Heat Advisory in effect once again today.  Another scorcher already underway as we approach mid day.  Temperatures around 90° and heat index values near 100° are already being felt in the valley before lunch time.  Things only get more intense as we move through the afternoon.

Sunshine and blue skies with a SW flow will one more time, allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 90s.  The humid atmosphere resulting from dew point temperatures in the 70s, will drive real feel heat index values over 100° Wednesday afternoon.  As the Heat Advisory urges… be sure to take frequent breaks from direct sunlight, stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water, and check on elderly and at risk populations.  Just be sure to be aware of those around you, and lets look out for each other.  Thursday will see lots of clouds, and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.  So Wednesday is the final day of this heatwave… just hang in there folks.

Late Day T-Storm Concern

The National Weather Service SPC office has issued the following severe potential for today…

This guidance from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is rather ominous for later today and tonight.  It suggests a rather significant outbreak of strong to severe weather, especially for our viewers in NE Ulster, N Dutchess, Columbia and Greene counties.  We’ve reviewed the data as well, and we respect the SPC’s guidance, and suggest we all prepare for the potential of severe thunderstorms later today and tonight.  However, based on what we see, we don’t have quite the same level of concern.  Here is our StormPact image for today:

CONFIDENCE : AVERAGE … based on the consistency of the data at hand, with the timing of the T-storm threat being late in the day and this evening, as well as the volume of super cell T-Storm cells expected, our confidence is average

IMPACTS : LOW … the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of supercell T-Storms in the Hudson Valley, primarily after 4pm.  Multiple guidances show broken and disorganized lines of T-Storm activity, as opposed to a well organized squall line.  Because of the projected disorganized nature of the potential severe event, we don’t expect a large number of severe T-Storms.  **If Storms develop at a higher rate than projected in guidance, it would mean severe T-Storms over a larger area, and more of a ‘moderate impact’ for the HV.

OUTAGES : LOW … the latest guidance does not result in a large number of severe T-Storms in the region.  There will likely be a few, but based on the disorganized nature of the event, widespread outages are not likely.

TIMING : 4pm to midnight… with peak activity between 6pm and 10pm.

The most active futurecast radar definitely indicates a couple severe thunderstorms expected around the region, but it does not look nearly as impressive as some previous thunderstorm outbreaks from this spring.

Futurecast Radar : 2pm Wednesday – 12am Thursday

You can see a few pop up super cell T-Storms show up over the Hudson Valley around 4pm… but they do not appear particularly widespread or intense.  Those push out near dusk… as another broken line of showers and thunderstorms move in between 6pm and 10pm… possibly lingering through midnight.  After sunset around 8pm, when we lose the heating of the day… the storms will lose some of their energy, and should begin to gradually weaken.  With that said, there is definitely a likelihood of some strong to severe thunderstorms in a few locations late today and this evening.

Primary Threats:
– frequent lightning
– damaging wind gusts over 55mph
– Small hail

We’ll monitor this through the afternoon.  We’re seeing some indication that perhaps the guidance does not have a great handle on the situation… and could be underestimating the event.  That is why we always want to err on the side of caution, and move with the SPC.  Maybe we get lucky, and our assessment is correct.  But with severe weather, it’s best to be cautious.

Tuesday Discussion : Heat Advisory Day 3

Summer in full swing around the Hudson Valley as we enter day 3 of the heatwave.

Morning lows in the low to mid 70s will quickly translated into temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s by noon.  But as we’ve come to learn by now, the real story remains the humidity that has locked into the eastern US.  Dew points in the 70s will combine with the highs in the low to mid 90s… to produce real feel temps like you see in the image above.  Heat index values as high as 104° are possible… and for that reason, the Heat Advisory remains in effect.  The chances of an isolated late day T-Storm are very low… less than 20%, so no relief in sight.  And if you don’t think these ‘real feel’ temperatures are likely… here’s a quick look at the heat index values from Monday afternoon…

This is what it actually felt like Monday afternoon, with real feel temps in the 100° to 104° range… which is largely the product of the dew points in the mid to upper 70s, combining with temps between 90° and 95°.  So make sure you take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.

Looking to Wednesday, the heat and humidity hold in place, and we are likely to see a 4th straight day of temps in the 90s, and heat index values between 95° and 105°.  Some relief looks likely for Thursday, in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms… but we’ll have to wait until Wednesday night for better ideas on the details.

For now… make sure to take it easy… and have a great Tuesday!

Monday Afternoon Heat Wave Update

The heat is in place across the Hudson Valley, with temperatures as of mid day in the upper 80s to low 90s. Highs are expected to be 90° to 95° in the valley… but the real story is the humidity making it feel much more uncomfortable. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s are making the air feel very heavy and thick. The combination of the 90° heat and the dew points in the mid 70s… are resulting in ‘real feel’ heat index values of 102° in Middletown, 100° in Gardiner, and 103° in Spring Valley. Where the humidity levels are a little lower… the Heat Index is a bit lower, between 95° and 100°. But any way you slice it today… it’s a hot, sticky, mid summer day.
Be sure to use extra caution… take it slow if you’re outside. Stay hydrated, drinking plenty of water. If you’re working outside, take breaks from the sun, and make sure you do not overheat. Heat exhaustion is dangerous, and can set in over a short period of time in these conditions. Overnight lows tonight are expected in the low to mid 70s… which will set the stage for another very uncomfortable to borderline oppressive day on Tuesday.

Weekend Outlook : Here Comes the Heat Wave

After a comfortable, springlike pattern the past few days… some major changes are unfolding across the eastern US and Hudson Valley.  The end result will be a likely heatwave for our area, as well as some rather uncomfortable humidity levels.

Sunday we will begin to see the building heat and humidity, with a steady SW wind flow, that will drive temperatures up a degree or two on either side of 90°.  An air mass that is much more humid will also be in the region… that should drive ‘real feel’ heat index values into the mid 90s across the Hudson Valley.  The humidity will make the air feel a bit heavier than it has over the last week… so be ready for that uncomfortable feel to the air Sunday afternoon.

From there, the conditions get more uncomfortable as we head into the work week.  The huge Bermuda high will hold in place for several days, as there is no immediate relief dropping in from Canada.  The result will be a multi-day hot and humid air mass, that will stick with us through at least mid week.

The conditions that are likely across the hudson Valley for Sunday through at least Wednesday:

  • – Hot and uncomfortably humid
  • – Highs near 90° Sunday… low to mid 90s for Mon – Wed
  • – Real feel Heat index valudes between 95° and 100°
  • – Heat exhaustion a concern, take breaks from strenuous activity in the sun

While each day could see an isolated afternoon T-Storm… the chances are very low.  Most locations will stay dry until mid week, when the frontal boundary slips closer to the Hudson Valley, and brings a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Relief looks likely by Thursday or Friday of the coming week, as the boundary is likely to move south of the Hudson Valley.  But until that happens, some hot and humid weather is heading back into the Hudson Valley.

Enjoy your weekend!

Friday Afternoon Discussion : Weekend Outlook

A gorgeous afternoon around the region, with sunshine and blue skies, filtered through thin high clouds. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are a degree or two below average. And humidity levels are very low, making for a very comfortable end to the work week.
After a couple days of low humidity and overnight lows in the 40s… a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern US will bring a southerly flow to the Hudson Valley, and set the stage for rising temperatures and surging humidity levels through the weekend and into next week.
 
Saturday : High in the mid 80s
Sunday : Highs 85° to 90°, real feel temps in the low 90s
Monday : Highs 90° to 95°, real feel temps 95° to 100°
Tuesday : Highs 90° to 95°, real feel temps 95° to 100°
 
Each day looks to see a mix of sun and clouds… with hazy conditions coming along with the rising humidity. The building Bermuda high should keep us mainly free of thunderstorms until mid week. Some true summertime heat and humidity coming our way for the final days of June. Make sure you factor this in to your plans, because Monday and Tuesday look to be days where heat advisories are likely, and heat exhaustion could set in quickly.
 
Have a great afternoon!

Tuesday Morning Radar Discussion : Big Changes

Behind the line of thunderstorms from last night, we have an area of disturbed weather approaching the Hudson Valley. Scattered showers are likely through much of the day today, as this weak wave of energy pushes though.
 
Expect mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers today. Temperatures will not move much from where they are now, which is in the mid 60s for most of us (upper 50s in Catskills). A dramatically cooler day than what we saw on Monday.

Monday Afternoon Radar Update – 5pm

The heat and humidity is in place, and it’s a rather uncomfortable Monday afternoon across the Hudson Valley. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90°… with Heat Index values in the mid 90s generally. But the focus now shifts to the approaching cold front and the scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with it.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the northern half of the Hudson Valley, as you can clearly see all the thunderstorm activity associated with the front. The blue boxes on the radar are the severe thunderstorm warnings, and there are many severe warned storms. The good news, is that all of them are currently outside of the Hudson Valley. We do anticipate this broken line of thunderstorms to push toward the Hudson Valley between 6pm and 11pm (depending on your location).
 
Timing : 6pm to 11pm (peak activity 8pm to 10pm)
Impact : Potential damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy downpours
 
There will still be enough heat and humidity in the region to fuel these storms, even after sunset. So we can’t rule out a few severe T-Storms in our neck of the woods. One or two super cells could develop out ahead of the front between 6pm and 8pm… but the primary line of showers and T-Storms will linger back until after sunset. If you have plans this evening, you’re likely in the clear until near sunset, and after dark.
 
We’ll try to share updates as the evening progresses…

Monday Discussion : Sweltering Summer Heat

Summer officially started at 11:32pm Sunday night… and on queue… Monday will feel like the middle of summer.

Monday will feature a mix of sunshine and clouds and a warm southwest breeze.  That SW flow will usher high levels of humidity into the Hudson Valley, and along with the humidity, will come temperatures roughly 10 degrees above average.  That combination will set the stage for an uncomfortably hot and humid day.  Afternoon highs in in the upper 80s to low 90s, will feel more like the mid 90s when the thick humidity is factored in… and the result is a Heat Advisory in effect for parts of the region.  These type of conditions bring the risk of heat exhaustion, as the combination of the heat and humidity could put extra strain on the body.  So make sure you allow for frequent breaks from strenuous activity in the heat, and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

With the heat and humidity in place, we’ll track a cold front approaching the Hudson Valley late on Monday.  That frontal boundary will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms with it.  Due to the strength of the cold front, and the magnitude of the heat and humidity ahead of it… the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms will exist.

You can see the concerns we have in our StormPact graphic.  The timing of the T-Storms will be the key.  With most of the thunderstorm activity expected after sunset, the threat for severe weather would be less than during the heating of the day.

CONFIDENCE : Average to above average confidence in the forecast
TIMING : 7pm to 1am (best chance 9pm to 11pm)
THREAT : Damaging wind gusts & Lightning (less than 15% chance)
IMPACT : Isolated power outages possible from isolated down trees & power lines

Futurecast Radar: 6pm Monday to 2am Tuesday

The cold front doesn’t approach the Hudson Valley until after sunset, and some of the latest guidance doesn’t have the squall line reach the Hudson Valley until 10pm or later.  The later the line arrives, the weaker the thunderstorms are likely to be.  It’s for this reason we don’t expect widespread severe thunderstorms… but we can’t rule out one or two strong to severe storms as the front moves through.  Some strong wind gusts are possible… as well as the potential for some welcome rainfall.

Behind this front on Tuesday, we should see morning clouds and a few scattered showers… mixing with breaks of afternoon sun.  Highs on Tuesday are likely to be much cooler, only in the low to mid 70s.  Tuesday night lows look to be quite chilly, with a NW wind, that could drop temps into the upper 40s in parts of the region.  So we definitely have some much cooler weather heading our way behind the cold front.

Have a great start to your work week, Hudson Valley!

Saturday Afternoon Update : Summer Weather Weekend

A hot, summer weekend unfolding across the Hudson Valley.

Afternoon temperatures on this Saturday are in the mid to upper 80s around the Hudson Valley.  Clouds are mixing with sunshine, and afternoon dew points are in the 60s… making for a bit more uncomfortable air mass than recent days.  We’re tracking an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving eastward through Pennsylvania this hour.

Radar loop : 2:40pm – 3:40pm

The showers and thunderstorms cover a large area as the move toward the Hudson Valley.  Guidance suggests the showers may weaken a bit as they approach… but we should still expect thickening clouds this afternoon with some scattered showers between 5pm and 10pm this evening.  Anyone with evening plans may want to keep the umbrella handy, just in case.  But in terms of severe weather… we’re really not expecting any severe thunderstorms this afternoon.  Things will quiet down overnight, but temperatures only falling into the low to mid 60s overnight.

Looking to Father’s Day…

A very nice, summer time afternoon is likely on Sunday.  We’ll have sunshine mixing with fair weather clouds, and a good deal of heat and humidity.  Highs on Sunday will likely reach the mid and upper 80s around the region… with humidity making a heat index in the upper 80s to low 90s.  There could be a spotty afternoon T-storm that pops up in one or two places, but otherwise Sunday afternoon looks dry around the Hudson Valley.  Outdoor activities will require some shade, and a cold glass of iced tea… as it will feel every bit like the middle of summer… which is appropriate, considering summer officially begins at 11:32pm Sunday night.

No matter what your plans may be… we hope you have a wonderful weekend, and a very Happy Father’s Day!

Thursday Discussion : Great Weekend Ahead

We saw a very chilly start around the region, with most of the valley in the mid 40s before sunrise… and even upper 30s in the Catskills! Pretty chilly stuff for mid June. As we move through the afternoon on Thursday, we’ve got a gorgeous spring day unfolding. Temps in the Hudson Valley are in the mid 70s, with very low humidity… and mostly sunny skies.
 
Looking toward the next couple days, some more gorgeous conditions expected on Friday as we likely see highs in the low 80s with low humidity. Saturday we’ll see a chance of some early morning showers… followed by a mix of clouds and sun for the afternoon. We’ll have to monitor the threat of a late day T-Storm as well. Then Father’s Day Sunday looks great as well… with partly cloudy skies, and afternoon highs in the mid 80s. A fine, summer-like day for all the outdoor activities.
 
A nice weekend shaping up across the Hudson Valley. We’ll keep tabs on the details as we go. Have a great Thursday afternoon everyone!