Tuesday Discussion : Watching for Ida’s Rains

Remnants of Hurricane Ida Heading for the Hudson Valley
– Flood Watch in effect for Wed PM – Thur PM
– Rain beings mid day Wednesday, heaviest late Wed night
– Rainfall amounts 2 to 5 inches possible, locally higher amounts
Futurecast Radar : 8am Wednesday to 8am Thursday
While the damage out of southern Louisiana and the New Orleans area is still being assessed, our focus now turns to the remnants of Hurricane Ida. As of Monday night, Ida is now a tropical depression with max winds of 35mph. Ida is in the process of getting captured by an east coast trough which will help pull the tropical moisture northeastward, out ahead of the storm center, and possibly into the Hudson Valley.
 
Current guidance is represented by the futurecast radar image shown here. You can see scattered rain showers pushing into the Hudson Valley around mid day on Wednesday. Periods of light to moderate rain seem possible through the afternoon hours Wednesday into the evening hours. Wednesday night, as the center of circulation approaches the east coast, that’s when the heaviest rain is likely. The tropical moisture could produce flash flooding rainfall rates Wednesday night into Thursday morning… before exiting to the east Thursday morning.
The key to the forecast will be the position of the trough. Based on the current guidance… the lower half of the Hudson Valley is expected to see heavier rainfall than the northern Hudson Valley. That’s why the Flash Flood Watch excludes Greene and Columbia counties right now. If the trough is a little further north, the entire Hudson Valley could see the potential for flooding rains… conversely, if the trough is a little further south, the heaviest rains could be suppressed south of the Hudson Valley. However for now… it appears that some heavy rain is likely late Wednesday night, especially from the Mid Hudson Valley on south.

Monday Night Discussion : Flood Watch for Wednesday

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT *
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
* For : The Hudson Valley (excluding Greene & Columbia counties)
* From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
* The remnants of Ida will pass near the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Deep tropical moisture will interact with a
nearly stationary frontal boundary across the Middle Atlantic and Northeast to produce heavy rainfall late Wednesday through
Thursday morning. The rainfall should begin to taper off Thursday afternoon. A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast with
locally higher amounts possible. This rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions may lead to flash flooding. Flooding of fast
responding rivers and streams is possible, and flooding of main stem rivers cannot be ruled out.

Sunday Night Discussion : Hurricane Ida 9pm Update

9pm Hurricane Ida Update
Category 3
Max Sustained Winds : 115mph
Pressure: 947mb (27.96in)
Moving NNW 9mph
Hurricane Ida continues to ravage Louisiana this evening as a category 3 hurricane. It’s been about 8 hours since landfall, and during that time Ida has weakened from a strong category 4 storm with 150mph winds, down to a minimal category 3 storm of 115mph. Still, while over land for over 8 hours, Ida has not weakened all that much, and that is due to the swamp land and low elevations of Louisiana causing minimal disruption of the storm’s circulation.
 
Even at this hour, the eye of Ida is clearly visible on radar. You can see ‘NEW’ on the radar is New Orleans, and they have been battered by the outer eye wall of Ida over the last few hours. The strongest winds were in the western suburbs of New Orleans, near MSY. That’s where the strongest winds of this system are located at this point. Gusts in the New Orleans area have caused widespread power outages, with the majority of the city without power at this time. Video from storm chasers showing trees and powerlines down all around the city and suburbs, as well as flooding from the heavy rainfall in that area.
 
This storm will continue to push northward overnight, and head toward Baton Rouge overnight. It will gradually weaken overnight, and should be a tropical storm by morning. Areas 30 to 50 miles on either side of the eye will likely see hurricane force winds overnight, and can expect widespread power outages. Areas from the eye to 100 miles east of the eye are likely to see flooding concerns with rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with locally over a foot of rain. Thoughts continue to be with everyone in this part of the world, as a rough night lies ahead.

Sunday Discussion : Hurricane Ida Makes Landfall

10am Hurricane Ida Advisory
Category 4 Hurricane
Maximum Sustained Winds : 150mph
Maximum Wind Gusts : 184mph
Pressure : 930mb (27.46in)
Moving : NW 14mph
A devastating storm heading for southern Louisiana this morning, as Hurricane Ida makes its final approach. This storm has undergone tremendous intensification over the past 10 hours. At the 11pm update last night it was a strong category 2 storm with max winds of 105mph. Unfortunately for residents of southern Louisiana, it’s much stronger than late last night.
This will be a catestrophic event for a large portion of southern Louisiana. From Grand Isle to Port Fourchon, and towns of Galliano, Montegut, Chauvin, Dulac, Houma, Larose in toward Lockport, Morgan City and Thibodaux. Those will be the first locations to be hit, and will feel the worst of Ida’s wrath. These areas are all under an Extreme Wind Warning for winds of 115 to 150mph. Our thoughts and prayers will be with those regions.
The storm surge from landfall to points east will be 10 to 16 feet, possibly even higher. This rise in just a few minutes is the most deadly aspect of a hurricane due to the dramatic rise of water. The low elevations and swamp land will absolutely be flooded by the surge of water. Hopefully those areas will have minimal people staying in the path.
For areas like New Orleans, rain is the biggest concern, although winds will also be a problem. The worst winds are likely to be south and west of New Orleans… but hurricane force gusts over 75mph to 100mph are certainly possible there. Thankfully, the catestrophic winds are very likely to stay southwest of New Orleans. Unfortunately, it’s the torrential rainfall concern for areas like New Orleans that have forecasters worried. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches (locally up to 20″) are possible on the eastern side of the storm track. That combined with storm surge concerns… and flooding is a serious worry for SE Louisiana. Areas like New Orleans are likely to be without power for several days, so hopefully residents are prepared.
We will continue to track Hurricane Ida, but want to emphasize, if you’re looking for detailed coverage, because you have friends or family in Louisiana, please use local news coverage. We are Hudson Valley Weather, and while we surely are concerned and watching closely… we don’t know this part of the world like we know our valley… so we want to defer to local experts and media coverage for advice about how local residents should act. This is a life threatening situation… and residents in the path should listen to local emergency services for updates and alerts. Our thoughts are with those in the path of this intense system.

Saturday Afternoon Discussion : A Touch of Grey

Low clouds are the weather story for our Saturday in the Hudson Valley.
This satellite, radar and observation image tells the story across our region. Low clouds are locked in over the eastern half of NY, all the way back past Binghamton. This is associated with the same disturbance that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region last night. You can see a few scattered rain showers as well, especially up toward Saugerties, and up for much of Columbia county. The threat of spotty scattered rain showers will be present through the evening, as you can see light rain showers scattered from Albany, into Eastern PA and into CT. The showers will be mostly light and not particularly long lasting where they develop… but the low clouds and spotty showers will give us a rather unsettled feel to our Saturday afternoon weather.
 
Temperature wise, the low clouds and SE flow off the ocean are keeping temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s around the region. Don’t expect the temperatures to climb much from where they are now, unless we get more breaks of sunshine. But as you can see from the satellite, you have to go west, past Elmira and into Central PA to get any consistent breaks of sunshine. So we don’t anticipate much sun breaking through today.
 
These conditions are expected to persist into tonight, and on into Sunday. There is a potential to get more breaks of sunshine tomorrow, which would help temps climb into the mid and upper 70s… but with this weak disturbance off the east coast not expected to exit off the coast quickly… our Sunday weather could look similar in many ways to our Saturday weather in the Hudson Valley. Full details are available on www.hudsonvalleyweather.com, and we will also share some updates on Hurricane Ida, which is targeting Louisiana on Sunday.
 
Regardless of the weather, we hope everyone has a nice weekend!

Thursday Discussion : Dog Days of Summer

*** HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ***
FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM THIS EVENING…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to around 100 expected.
* WHERE… The Hudson Valley (excluding Sullivan & Delaware counties)
* WHEN…From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
 
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Hurricane Henri Update – 2am Sunday

2AM Hurricane Henri Update
Maximum Sustained Winds : 75mph
Moving : NNW 18mph
Maximum Wind Gusts : 92mph
Pressure : 989mb (29.23in)
Henri continues to move closer to Long Island and coastal New England overnight. The good news, is that Henri is not rapidly intensifying, and remaining a miminal category 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to push the projected track further to the east. The consensus landfall position now being the eastern tip of Long Island, then pushing into eastern CT.
From that point things get a bit more uncertain. A good deal of guidance shows Henri getting captured by the east coast trough and pulled westward… into eastern NY overnight Sunday night. This scenario would bring tropical rains into the Hudson Valley on Sunday night. Rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches would be common, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. As such, a Flood Watch is in effect for the entire Hudson Valley.
If the storm follows a track similar to the NHC’s latest guidance, keeping the center of circulation east of the Hudson Valley, the worst conditions would likely also remain east of the Hudson Valley. That said, there is a good deal of guidance still pulling Henri west after landfall, into eastern NY. Then, once pulled into eastern NY, the remnants of Henri stall out and spin until Monday afternoon. So we are by no means in the clear.
We will continue to have updates as Henri approaches early on Sunday. The outer bands are likely to rotate into eastern parts of the Hudson Valley during the mid to late morning hours (9am to 11am), at about the same time the center of circulation approaches landfall along eastern Long Island or coastal CT/RI

Hurricane Henri – 11am Update

11am Hurricane Henri Update
Maximum Sustained Winds : 75mph
Moving : NNE 14mph
Maximum Wind Gusts : 86mph
Pressure : 995mb (29.41in)
For the first time, Henri is a Hurricane. The intensification has been expected, although much later than originally projected a day or two ago. Whether that’s good news or not remains to be seen. Henri will continue to track NNE and begin shifting north over the next 12 hours, before likely trending NNW overnight.
Computer guidance remains VERY divided on the track of Henri. For example, in the livestream last night we talked about how the evening NAM model had trended about 25miles east. Well, then the overnight run of the NAM shifted west about 50 miles…. and now the morning run of the NAM shifted back east by over 50 miles… now further east than the position it was in last night. So the models are going to struggle greatly with exactly where Henri will make landfall. But here is what we are expecting based on current guidance.
Sunday Morning:
– Outer rain bands begin to rotate in between 7am and 12pm
– NNE Winds increase 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph.
Sunday Afternoon:
– Periods of rain, heavy at times, especially east of Hudson River
– NNE Winds 15 to 30mph, gusts 30 to 50mph
Sunday Night:
– Periods of rain and wind… heavy at times
– Winds 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph
The worst conditions are likely during the afternoon on Sunday, but to emphasize… “Forecast may change based on new data”. For now, we are not updating our Stormpact map… but be advised, that we are considering increasing the IMPACT from moderate to high, and possibly raising OUTAGES from scattered to widespread. It all has to do with the combination of potentially flooding rains, and wind gusts over 45mph. If the westward track becomes more likely, we will increase the Stormpact graphic.
We will share more updates as we go through the afternoon… but do not expect the guidance to suddenly lock in on the track and landfall position of Henri. Expect the unexpected with this system, as it wobbles up the east coast. Make sure you continue to prepare for the arrival of Henri, and the possibility of being without power for a couple days if the worst of Henri drives into the Hudson Valley.

Tropical Storm Henri – Preliminary Stormpact Discussion

As of 2pm Friday, Tropical Storm Henri is a strong tropical storm, with sustained winds of 70mph and is expected to intensify into a hurricane in the next 12 hours. Computer guidance trends over the course of the last 24 hours have been a gradual westward trend… but there remains considerable disagreement on exactly where Henri will make landfall. Some guidance tracks it into western Long Island, while other guidance has it tracking near Cape Cod.
For now, we want to issue an early, ‘Preliminary’ Stormpact graphic for what will soon become Hurricane Henri. Current model consensus is that the worst of Hurricane Henri’s impacts will be east of the Hudson Valley. But there is enough guidance that curves Henri inland after landfall… that the potential exists for some impacts locally. The biggest concern at this time for our area, would be heavy rain moving in from the southeast late on Sunday. That rainfall could be accompanied by strong winds, gusting over 30mph. Due to the combination of what guidance is currently showing for our region… as well as the potential for a slightly more westward track… we are going with the following:
CONFIDENCE : LOW (high uncertainty of exact track)
IMPACTS : MODERATE (potential strong wind gusts, flash flooding)
OUTAGES : SCATTERED (some down trees & powerlines)
 
This is our best guess at this point, based on the data that exists. To emphasize… it is possible, if not likely… for this graphic to change. If the storm tracks over eastern Long Island or Rhode Island, the impacts locally would be low, and power outages would be minimal. If the storm tracks over western Long Island and makes landfall as a hurricane, the impacts locally could be moderate to high, and outages could be widespread. So the details are very important to what we see locally.
 
Tropical Storm Henri… soon to be Hurricane Henri… is going to cause major problems for someone along the New England / Long Island coast. The next 24 to 36 hours will be crucial in helping pinpoint the impacts on our area. We’ll continue to track and share updates along the way.

Thursday Discussion : Tropical Times

A tropical feel across the Hudson Valley when you walk out the door this morning. The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred dropped anywhere from 0.75 to 2.5 inches of rain across the Hudson Valley, bringing some welcome rainfall to many parts of the region.
The humidity won’t be going away any time soon in the wake of a tropical system… but we should see conditions improving. Clouds will mix with increasing breaks of sun this afternoon, and highs will climb into the low 80s.
The tropical air mass with dew points in the mid 70s will make those low 80s feel more like mid to upper 80s. Similar conditions are expected on Friday, and as we head into the weekend.
As mentioned in the previous post… we’re closely watching Tropical Storm Henri, to see just how close to the east coast it will get. The timing of concern is late Saturday night through Sunday. Guidance keeps this mainly east of the Hudson Valley at this time… but we’ll be keeping a close eye. A busy few days ahead… have a great afternoon!