Tuesday Discussion : Expect the Unexpected

Upper level low pressure systems are always lots of fun. The energy associated with them is notoriously difficult for computer guidance to account for. Today is a great example of that.
Current Radar Loop as of 10:40am
The radar has blossomed from the I-84 corridor on south, with showers and thunderstorms. Even areas north of I-84 are now seeing showers and thunderstorms develop. These showers and thunderstorms are moving from west to east, and should continue to expand through the Hudson Valley over the next few hours. NEW computer guidance has the rain and thunder exiting the Hudson Valley between 1pm and 4pm from west to east… but keep in mind, the computer guidance did not indicate these widespread showers and thunderstorms as of 6 hours ago… so the details may change.
Regardless, please plan for the threat of showers and thunderstorms through at least the early to mid afternoon hours.

Saturday Discussion : Fine Fall Weather

We’ve reached the first weekend of Fall in the Hudson Valley, and the weather is looking beautiful for any early fall activities around the region. Saturday afternoon is seeing mostly sunny skies with temps in the low 70s, right on target with the averages for this time of year. Tonight, temps will fall into the low 50s for lows under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Setting the stage for partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70°.
Looking to the week ahead, no significant storms heading our way. However, a weak frontal boundary my sink southward from Canada on Tuesday, giving us clouds and a few scattered showers. But at least through mid week, the weather looks rather tranquil. We hope everyone has a wonderful weekend!

Friday Discussion : Sunshine After the Rain

After a dark and stormy night, the sunshine and blue skies have returned to the Hudson Valley. Looking at the 11am Satellite, Radar, and Temperature map, you can see the front has shifted east of our region, and the clouds and rain associated with it have also pushed east of the Hudson Valley. Our winds have shifted from being out of the south, to a west/northwest flow. That has pulled some much drier air, and dropped temps from the low 70s, into the low 60s. (even some 50s in the Catskills).
For our Friday afternoon, expect lots of sunshine and blue skies, accompanied by a few fair weather clouds from time to time. Low humidity and WNW winds will be with us, and afternoon highs in the low 70s are expected. A fantastic Friday afternoon of weather for the valley.
Tonight, expect some cool and comfortable conditions, as light winds out of the SW keep us from getting too chilly overnight. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected around the region.
Then on Saturday, partly cloudy skies with a SW wind should give us afternoon highs in the mid 70s. We’ll need to watch a weak disturbance riding up the coast along the lingering frontal boundary, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. We will watch for the potential of increasing clouds and a stray rain shower late Saturday into Saturday night, but we will likely get sandwiched in between these features as they pass by, and the Hudson Valley is likely to remain dry. Other than that slight chance at clouds and a shower… an outstanding weather weekend appears likely for the Hudson Valley. TGIF
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS
The radar estimated rainfall totals from Thursday are quite impressive.  Showing a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall event, with some locally higher amounts found… especially in the higher elevations.

Thursday Discussion : Breezy & Muggy with Rain Tonight

Detailed Forecast: *Flood Watch in Effect for Tonight*
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy… with scattered showers becoming likely… especially in the afternoon. High in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday Night: Cloudy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Breezy. Low in the upper 50s.
Friday: An early shower… otherwise skies turning partly cloudy. High in the low 70s.
Futurecast Radar & Satellite: 12pm Thursday – 9am Friday
A tropical feel to the air for our Thursday morning, as a strong southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front, pulls warm and humid air into the Hudson Valley. Temps in the 70s, with winds at 5 to 15mph out of the south, and dew points around 70°… all those ingredients combine to make a very tropical feel to the air.
 
Clouds and scattered showers will increase this afternoon, as the line of showers and heavier downpours approach. The chances for a steady rain increase as we get toward sunset, especially west of the Hudson River. The period of steadiest rain is likely to be 6pm to 3am… but the potential for rain will linger into sunrise on Friday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are projected, and for that reason we have a Flood Watch in effect. Areas that get prolonged heavier downpours could see some flooding issues.
 
Friday, conditions should quickly improve as the front passes by, with sunshine and blue skies returning through the morning hours, and temps climbing into the low 70s for highs on Friday. Full details can be found on the website : www.hudsonvalleyweather.com Have a great day!

Wednesday Discussion : Unsettled Ahead of the Storm

A humid and unsettled air mass has returned to the Hudson Valley, out ahead of an approaching storm system over the Ohio Valley. Looking at the mid morning NY state radar loop, you can see a few spotty showers over the Hudson Valley… while the bulk of the showers are found well off to our west, closer to the storm system and cold front.
Over the next 48 hours, the low pressure will struggle to move eastward, due to a large upper level ridge over eastern Canada. The result is going to be multiple days of low clouds, patchy drizzle and spotty showers. Temps along that time will be consistently between the upper 60s and mid 70s due to the low clouds, fog, and spot drizzle. During that time, peeks of sun are likely, but they’ll also be rather limited.
 
Late on Thursday and into Friday… we’ll finally see the front push into our area. This will bring a period of steady, heavier rain to the Hudson Valley. The timing is tricky due to the blocking ridge slowing the front… but it seems like the rain associated with the front should reach our region between 6pm and 12am Thursday night… and should exit the region before noon on Friday. We’ll have to fine tune the timeline as we get closer. But it looks like anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of rain could be possible.
 
More updates to follow as we get closer. Have a great Wednesday afternoon.

Monday Outlook : Gorgeous Start to the Week

After a beautiful weekend across the Hudson Valley, we’ll see the nice weather continue to start the work week.

Mostly sunny skies are likely for Monday, with low humidity, and highs right near average for this time of year… in the mid 70s.  Our flow will gradually shift around Monday, to be out of the southeast.  That will allow more moisture and humidity to move into the Hudson Valley.  As a result, clouds will increase for Tuesday, with a few areas of patchy drizzle possible.  The clouds will be with us for much of Tuesday and Wednesday.  While we don’t expect any notable rainfall Tuesday or Wednesday, both days look to see more clouds than sun… with afternoon temps in the 70s.

Our next big threat for rainfall is a frontal system that will intensify across the Ohio Valley.  Blocking out ahead of that storm will slow it down considerably.  There is some uncertainty about how much the storm will be slowed… but it appears likely that sometime between Thursday and Friday morning, that there is a period of steady, soaking rainfall… as that front pushes through the region.  If you have plans for the 2nd half of the week, you will want to check for updates as we get a better handle on the time table of this storm’s progress.

For now… we hope everyone had a wonderful weekend, and has a great start to the work week!

Friday Discussion : Sunshine Ahead

The cold front of the past 2 days has exited the region, and in its wake, we have some beautiful… almost fall-like weather.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and beautiful. High in the low 70s.
Friday Night: Mainly clear and crisp. Low around 50°.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny skies. High in the mid 70s.
Saturday Night: Mainly clear skies. Not as cool. Low around 60°.
Sunday: Sunshine mixing with increasing afternoon clouds, breezy and warmer. High around 80°.
 
A strong NW wind 10 to 20mph on Friday will bring some cooler and much drier air into the region. A few fair weather clouds along the way, but we’ll stay dry for the next couple days. Friday night looks quite crisp, with temps falling into the low 50s… possibly some upper 40s, especially in the cooler spots.
Saturday we’ll see mostly sunny skies and a diminished wind. Afternoon highs very close to where they should be for this time of year, in the mid 70s. Winds will shift out of the SW late Saturday, and that will keep us warmer Saturday night. By Sunday, the SW breeze will usher warmer air back into our area. Highs on Sunday likely climbing into the low 80s. But at the same time on Sunday, a front from the north will try to drop into the northern parts of our region. That will likely bring some clouds late on Sunday. We’ll have to watch and see if a few showers will accompany those clouds.
 
But for the most part, a beautiful weekend of weather lined up. We hope everyone has a wonderful weekend. And while we will likely have some separate thoughts on Saturday… our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone tomorrow, as we commemorate 20 years since the September 11th, 2001. The day has very deep meaning for many of us, so whatever your plans are for Saturday… we hope your day goes well. Take care of yourselves and each other… and have a nice weekend!

Thursday Discussion – Clouds and Spotty Showers

After a dark and stormy night, that likely had many pets heading under the bed… the thunderstorm activity has moved east of the Hudson Valley for our Thursday. While the storms have cleared out, the progression of the front has stalled considerably, and the result is the clouds and scattered showers associated with the front, still lingering around the region this morning. While earlier guidance suggested the front would clear more quickly… Mother Nature had different ideas. The end result for our Thursday will be lots of clouds, with very limited breaks of sun… and the threat of scattered rain showers through this evening. The further south and east you are in the Hudson Valley (Putnam, Westchester, much of Dutchess County)… you will have the highest potential for scattered rain showers through the day on Thursday.
Thursday AM radar
Looking at the current radar, you can see the steady rain showers over NJ and Long Island. But as these push northeast, a few scattered showers are likely to spread into the Hudson Valley as well. Temps today will likely hold in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tonight, the clouds and showers will finally push east… and skies should clear out after midnight tonight. That should set the stage for a beautiful Friday… with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low to mid 70s. The weekend looks nice as well, with a good deal of sun, and afternoon highs in the 70s.
 
We hope you have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Evening T-Storm Potential

Another beautiful afternoon expected across the region, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, and afternoon highs around 80° in many places. An approaching cold front will spread a line of showers and thunderstorms toward the Hudson Valley from the west later today.
Timing:
– 2pm to 7pm: Isolated pop up showers and storms
– 7pm to 12am: Line of scattered showers and T-Storms.
Impact:
– 15% to 30% chance of damaging wind gusts
– an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out
– Flash Flood watch for Orange, Rockland and Sullivan counties
 
The timing of the front’s arrival is after sunset, which should help reduce the severe weather threat a bit for the Hudson Valley. There is a good amount of vertical shear in the mid levels of the atmosphere, that could help spawn a few strong to severe supercell storms both ahead of and along the cold front. The timing on the pop up storms could be anytime this afternoon or early evening, but the potential is low (less than 30% in any location). The line of T-Storms associated with the front itself arrive close to 7 or 8pm in the Catskills… and 9pm to 11pm in the majority of the Hudson Valley.
The primary concern is wind damage associated with the T-Storms along the front. Wind gusts over 50mph could result in isolated down trees and power lines. Based on the timing and guidance with the computer data, power outages should be rather isolated with this event. But be sure to be alert to the potential this evening. We’ll share any updates as the event unfolds this evening.

Sunday Discussion : Low Clouds and Damp

A soggy Sunday across the Hudson Valley, as several batches of rain showers have pushed through the region this morning.
1:30pm Radar
The current radar shows that the organized batches of rain showers have pushed east of us, but you can see that the regional radar shows a general unsettled look to the radar, with patchy showers and spotty drizzle lingering around the region. So expect mostly cloudy skies with a spotty shower possible this afternoon. Temps will hold generally between 65° and 70° for most places… and the Catskills will hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
 
Tonight, as the front pushes through, a period of showers and thundershowers are possible near midnight… otherwise variable clouds tonight with lows in the low 60s. Then our Labor Day Monday looks great! Mostly sunny skies with a few fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s with low humidity… should make for a wonderful day with great outdoor weather. The latest forecast ideas are always available at www.hudsonvalleyweather.com, and the website is very mobile friendly. Our HVW app is currently offline, and we’re hoping to have it back up in the coming months. We’ll keep you updated.
Have a great Afternoon!