Saturday Mid Day Discussion : Grey and Damp

A cloudy, damp, and at times drizzly afternoon on tap for the Hudson Valley.

The steadier rain showers have shifted east of our area at this time, and should remain there for the afternoon. Here in the valley, we will see clouds and periods of drizzle this afternoon. A few breaks of sun are also possible, so don’t be surprised if we see a few peeks of sun. Temps currently in the low to mid 50s… should top out in the upper 50s to low 60s in a few spots.

A period of rain showers are possible again tonight, as a second wave of energy moves up the east coast tonight. The best chance for steady rain would be from the Hudson River and points east. Timing would be from 6pm to midnight. So be sure to plan for that if you have plans this evening. We’ll try to share info as the batch of rain approaches, but it does look like a damp evening for many of us.

Conditions should improve a little for our Sunday, with mostly cloudy skies and a passing spot shower. Highs for Halloween look to be near 60°. And most importantly… the late afternoon and evening look DRY! Have a nice afternoon, Hudson Valley!

Friday Discussion : Another Round of Rain on the Way

While we’re still drying out from the 3 to 5 inches of rain that fell across the region on Tuesday, we’re tracking another frontal system heading our way tonight, that will bring a period of rain showers back to the Hudson Valley.
– Showers develop between 6pm and 10pm from south to north
– Breezy east winds gust 15 to 25mph overnight
– Unsettled weekend, clouds and scattered showers
– Rainfall totals 0.25 to 0.75 inches expected by Sat PM
– Another round of rain possible Saturday Night
A low pressure over the Ohio Valley will send a warm front with rain showers northward. That line of rain showers is projected to reach the Hudson Valley between 6pm and 10pm from SW to northeast. You can see on the futurecast that around 8pm the rain showers arrive in the Lower Hudson Valley, and spreads into the Mid Hudson Valley by 10pm. The rain showers will become scattered in nature by sunrise on Saturday… leaving us with a rather unsettled Saturday across the region, with clouds, areas of drizzle and spot showers. Temps Friday night will be in the mid to upper 40s, before climbing into the upper 50s and near 60° Saturday afternoon. 
We’re watching another batch of potential rain for Saturday night, as low pressure tries to move northward along the coast. There is considerable uncertainty about that batch of rain, so we hope to have more information on those details by Saturday afternoon.

Storm History : Tuesday 10/26/21 Nor’Easter

A storm that featured flash flooding in multiple areas pummelled the Hudson Valley on Tuesday, as our first strong nor’easter of the season moved up the northeast coast.  Computer guidance had suggested that 2 to 3 inches of rain was likely, with some locally higher totals.  Instead, thanks to a fetch of moisture that entrained over the Hudson Valley for several hours, final totals were about 2 inches more than initially projected.

A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain fell across the region, with some locally higher totals approaching 6 inches in some places.  Some viewers shared video and pictures of rapidly rising waters, and in some cases flooded roads and property.  With rainfall totals like this in the region, it’s no shock to see those images.  The average rainfall for the month of October in Poughkeepsie is 4.47 inches.  The Poughkeepsie station received 3.66 inches of rain in one storm, over 3 days.  About 80% of the month’s average rainfall fell in just one storm.  Taking the Hudson Valley from 1.16 inches for October (26% of average)… to 4.82 inches for the month of October (108% of average).  That’s how fast things can change in the Hudson Valley.

Wednesday Discussion : Finally Drying Out

After a soaking 30 hour period, which featured a widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain (with some locally higher amounts)… we’re finally watching this nor’easter depart the northeast.
Left over low clouds will begin to lift and give way to breaks of sunshine as the day progresses. Winds out of the north will gust up to 20 or 25mph at times today, which will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 50s for afternoon highs. The big key is that we’ll dry out, which should allow some of the flood waters to recede a bit. We remain dry through Thursday and into Friday. Another upper level low will move into the Tennessee valley on Friday, and likely will bring rain back to our area for Friday evening and Saturday morning. This will bring some uncertainty about the forecast details for the weekend… which currently looks rather unsettled, with clouds and scattered showers. But we’ll have a better idea as we get closer to the weekend.
 
For now, we hope everyone has a nice Wednesday. There were some shared videos in the comments of our 4pm update from Tuesday, that should serve as a reminder of why you need to take flooding seriously. Our thoughts are with Maria and her family, and anyone else who may have experienced water damage from this storm. We hope the damage is as minimal as possible, and that you dry out quickly. Have a nice day.

Storm Update – 4:00pm Radar Discussion

4pm Update

The heaviest rains have begun to lift out of the Hudson Valley, as the primary low pressure off shore takes over. The western center of circulation has pushed inland, and that has forced the heaviest rainfall into NW NYS. This is putting most of the Hudson Valley in a bit of a dry slot, which has caused the rain to taper to showers in the northern half of the valley, and even completely taper off in much of the lower HV… at least for a little while.
 
Computer guidance suggests that as the low pressure off shore takes over and moves westward, that more rain showers will rotate into the Hudson Valley from the east. You can actually see that beginning to occur in Putnam and Dutchess counties, as the rains from CT move northwestward. So in areas where the rain has tapered off… we do expect showers to redevelop from east to west over the next couple hours. The showers this afternoon and evening should be lighter in intensity than this morning’s rain, but with a saturated ground, flooding concerns will persist through tonight.
 
The winds are also expected to increase tonight, as stronger winds out of the northeast rotate into the valley. Gusts of 20 to 30mph are likely, with some locally higher gusts possible. A couple stronger gusts could result in a few down tree branches, so isolated power outages will also be a concern overnight. Even so, the worst wind conditions should remain off to our east.
 
Rain should taper off by morning on Wednesday, and conditions should improve through the day, but the blustery winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon. We’ll monitor the conditions this evening and update as needed. Have a nice afternoon!
11:30am Radar Loop:
The Hudson Valley continues to see driving rains and gusty winds at this hour, as one center of circulation pushes up toward NYC. You can see the rain rotating in off the ocean, sending a steady stream of moisture right into our area. Rainfall amounts already reported between 1.5 inches and 3.0 inches around the region.
– Warwick 3.08″ – Middletown 2.38″ – Newburgh 1.53″
Another inch or so of rain is likely over the next 12 hours. Flood Watches continue to be in effect, so be on guard for flooded roads, especially in areas with poor drainage.
 
The winds are gusting out of the northeast at 10 to 25mph, and could increase a bit late this afternoon and tonight. The National Weather Service has not issued a Wind Advisory, as they believe the stronger winds will struggle to mix down to the surface. That said, the computer guidance does give cause for concern, with gusts over 35mph projected in the valley. For that reason, we want to recommend everyone be prepared for the potential to lose power, if the stronger wind gusts do in fact move in tonight. As we are concerned for some isolated outages due to down tree branches on power lines. We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and should we feel stronger wind gusts are likely, we will pass that along.
 
Stay dry friends!

Tuesday Discussion : Soaking Rains and Gusty Winds

As the seasonal weather patterns begin to shift, we will watch as our first coastal low pressure system of the season develops tonight, and moves northeast.

Futurecast Loop : 6pm Monday to 12am Wednesday

Summary:
–  Showers develop by midnight Monday night
–  Steady rain develops by sunrise on Tuesday
–  Rain heavy at times through the day on Tuesday
–  NE winds 10 to 20mph, gust to 30mph (locally higher gusts possible)
–  Rainfall of 1.5 to 3.0 inches expected
–  Rain tapers off before sunrise on Wednesday

Our first nor’easter of the season is poised to bring a soaking rainfall to the region.  Showers will develop near midnight Monday night, and become a soaking rain by Tuesday morning.  The rain could fall heavy at times during the morning hours on Tuesday, setting the stage for a very wet AM commute to work and school.

The coastal low pressure will push northeastward, so that it’s located east of NJ… just east of the benchmark… by late Tuesday afternoon.  You can see by the futurecast, that a soaking rain is expected to last through the daylight hours, and into the evening on Tuesday.  For that reason the majority of the Hudson Valley is under a flood watch for Tuesday.  By the time all is said and done, anywhere form 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rain appear possible.

The latest guidance has kept the center of circulation further to the east, and that could help keep the strongest wind gusts to the east of the Hudson Valley.  Even so, some model guidance brings wind gusts over 40mph near the Hudson Valley.

The National Weather Service points out that the stronger winds from the upper air may not translate to the surface, meaning the map above may be a bit overdone… and the actual wind gusts could be a bit lower.  For that reason, the National Weather Service has not issued a Wind Advisory for our region.  We will continue to monitor the storm tonight, and share any updates as needed.  One thing is for certain… plan for a rainy and windy Tuesday.

Monday Discussion : Coastal Storm Monday Night into Tuesday

Rain showers Sunday night will lift north by Monday morning, which will give us decent weather for our Monday in the Hudson Valley. However, a coastal low pressure will move up the coast Monday night, and bring a soaking rainfall to the Hudson Valley. As such a flash flood watch is in effect from I-84 on south, and may be expanded further north.
Preliminary Summary:
– Showers develop before midnight Monday night
– Steady rain develops after midnight, continues into Tuesday, falling heavy at times.
– Increasing NE winds after sunrise Tuesday, 10 to 20mph, with gusts over 35mph possible.
– Total rainfall 1.5 to 3.0 inches possible, with local rainfall totals up to 5″ possible.
Late Monday night and Tuesday are looking quite stormy. We’ll have more thoughts on Monday, as the details become more clear. While it is rain and wind, as a coastal storm the details of the track can be quite tricky. And the exact track will determine just how much rain and wind we see in the Hudson Valley. Monday’s weather looks warm and quiet, so we hope you have a good start to the week. More updates on Monday.

Sunday Discussion : A Fine Fall Day

A chilly and in some isolated cases… a frosty start is likely on Sunday. Lows in the upper 30s to near 40° are expected around the valley, and even a few degrees colder in the usual hill towns. The sunshine will help lift temps into the mid and upper 50s by noon. During the afternoon we’ll see increasing clouds, ahead of a warm front that will bring showers to the region after dark on Sunday. That warm front will lift north for Monday, and give us warm temps in the upper 60s along with some breaks of sun for Monday afternoon. A storm system will move in Monday night and bring a soaking rain to the Hudson Valley Monday night into Tuesday.
 
Enjoy your Sunday!

Monday Discussion : A Taste of Fall

Saturday saw temperatures in the mid to upper 70s around the valley.  The cold front pulled through with downpours and T-Storms, and behind it some much cooler air has settled into the Hudson Valley.

Monday we’ll see a continuation of the fall preview.  Temps in the morning on Monday will be in the low to mid 40s, making for one of the coolest mornings of the season so far.  A NW wind at 10 to 20mph will bring reinforcing cold air into the region.  So despite a mix of clouds and sunshine, afternoon highs on Monday are likely to only reach the mid 50s, which is about 5 degrees below average for mid October.  That will set the stage for a chilly Monday night and Tuesday morning, with partly cloudy skies and a NW breeze will bring lows around 40° in many parts of the valley… with some upper 30s in the Catskills and traditional colder hill towns.

As we head toward mid week, we’ll see winds shift around to the west/southwest, and bring warmer temps to the valley by Tuesday and Wednesday.  By midweek, we’ll see highs around 70°, back up above average for this time of year.  Then by late week (late Thursday/early Friday), we’ll see another cold front push through ushering in another cold shot for next weekend.

Some ups and downs coming our way over the next week, as we begin to settle in to some autumn weather across the Hudson Valley.  Have a great start to your week!

Monday Discussion : Breaking Out of the Clouds

After a weekend of gray skies and patchy drizzle… we should finally begin pushing the low clouds out of the region.

Clouds will mix with increasing sunshine through the day on Monday, as a stubborn upper level low finally begins to exit out to sea.  Afternoon highs will climb up near 70 degrees in the valley, which is several degrees above average for this time of year.  This should begin a great stretch of weather in the Hudson Valley this week.  Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday look likely to see partly cloudy skies, with afternoon temps in the 70s.  With several days of nice weather lined up, outdoor plans across the Hudson Valley should be in good shape until at least late week… when a cold front may approach for the weekend.  But we’ll keep our eye on that as we get closer.

Have a great start to the week!