Summary:
– Tracking major coastal storm development Sunday into Monday
– Low confidence forecast, high chance for surprises
– Storm could still shift further east for less impact (25% chance)
– Storm track could result in stronger impacts than shown (50% chance)
– Strong wind gusts expected 20mph to 40mph+
– Worst impacts likely closer to NYC and coastline
Mini-Nerd Alert
Some major developments on Friday in terms of our computer guidance related to the coastal storm that will develop on Sunday. We’ve discussed for a couple days, the tremendous difficulty on the forecast for this system. Friday featured strong agreement in a westward trend of the upper level low pressure and so the surface low has tracked west too. Our “First Look” snowfall forecast map takes the data from Friday, and goes somewhat conservative in snow totals. Closer to NYC, and in the lower Hudson Valley… the best chance for 12″+ exists. Further northwest, into the mid Hudson Valley, a general 6″ to 12″ for now, because the further away from the low pressure track, the less precipitation will be found. 4 to 8 inches is likely in the Catskills and western Hudson Valley… because there could be a steep drop off in snowfall totals as you go further west. The further north and west you go, the more likely you run into subsidence and sinking air will cause much lower snowfall totals.
What to expect for Saturday…
We’ll be working through the data all day, to determine if we need to raise snowfall totals… keep them the same… or decrease them. The track of this system is everything, and a further west track means more snow for the Hudson Valley. We could also see this system pushed further out to sea by other atmospheric features across the country. It’s a very thin line between major snowstorm, and minor event…. so be sure to check for updates on Saturday.
A VERY busy weekend for Hudson Valley Weather… stay tuned.