With the heat and humidity comes the threat of thunderstorms, some of which can be strong to severe. For those counting on the rain that these storms can bring, which often times are beneficial during extended periods of heat, it’s been feast or famine. We have seen multiple situations over the last few weeks where the severe threat has diminished as it has arrived after sunset and left northern and eastern parts of the region out of the heaviest rainfall. This is unfortunately the nature of these setup’s, while thunderstorms and severe weather are likely, their exact location and intensity is hard to nail with any certainty.
This will the theme once again today and tomorrow, a large cluster of convection will pass to our north this afternoon. The southern extent of this cluster may impact Greene and Columbia county a could extend further south. This cluster looks to spark a broken line of convection on its southern end as it moves east, but this line may not reach maturity in time to impact anyone other than out southern most counties, but it will also be fighting dwindling energy as we lose day time heating. Timing on the northern cluster looks to be between 4-6 pm from west to east, the southern line looks to begin firing up between 7-9 pm.
Once again, with severe weather and storms it’s important to note that exact locations of impacts can be fickle. Here’s a look at a visual of how the models are portraying today’s impacts.
Tomorrow we will once again see a similar threat with storms erupting from NW to SE between 4-7 pm, here’s a look at tomorrow at 5pm modeled on the NAM.
With outdoor activities and work, be mindful both today and tomorrow of the ongoing potential for storms in the afternoon hours. We will of course cover anything that erupts with frequent updates on our social accounts which are also visible on our website.