Wednesday Discussion : Cold and Stormy End to the Week

The title of this post completely ignores what is directly in front of us, and that is a rather nice Wednesday, all things considered…

Morning sunshine will allow the temperatures to quickly rise into the 60s… possibly near 70° in the northern Hudson Valley, where the skies will remain mostly sunny for longer.  Clouds will advance quickly near mid day on Wednesday, and spotty rain showers and even an isolated rumble of thunder is possible.  Mostly cloudy skies will become cloudy by sunrise on Thursday.

Futurecast Radar : Thursday 8am – 8pm

An approaching upper level low from the Great Lakes will begin phasing with a developing coastal low pressure.  This will result in expanding and enhanced rainfall over the Hudson Valley and parts of New England.  Periods of moderate to at times heavy rain are likely during the day on Thursday.  The upper level low pressure will lift and cool the air, which will cause temperatures to fall through the 40s and into the upper 30s by Thursday evening.  The higher elevations in the Catskills will mix with and change to wet snow by sunset.  After dark, is when things could get rather interesting…

Futurecast Radar : 8pm Thursday – 8am Friday

The position of the upper level low and the surface low will be critical.  As the air cools in locations where steady rain is falling… the rain is likely to mix with and change to wet snow.  You can see on this futurecast, that the center of low pressure is now likely to be further northeast than earlier guidance.  That has shifted the axis of heavy snow further north and east… mostly into New England.  The northern Hudson Valley would still be in line to see accumulating snow if this scenario plays out.  But the trend has been shifting the storm further to the northeast… so we will continue to monitor it.

We believe that the chances are increasing that the Hudson Valley is spared the worst from this storm system, and New England looks to be the focal point for heaviest snow… but it is still far too early to be certain of anything.   What does look increasingly likely, is that the deepening coastal low pressure, combined with the upper level low pressure… may combine to provide a heavy late season wet snow to some areas.  The question is where the coastal low pressure is located when the upper level low reaches the coast.  Because that will determine where the heavy precipitation is located… and where the heavy snow would be expected to fall.

For now… rain is likely to mix with wet snow Thursday night and early on Friday.  The details are subject to change, but for the moment out thinking is:
– I-84 on south… a slushy coating to an inch in higher elevations possible
– I-84 on north… a slushy coating to 3 inches possible (mostly in hill towns)
– Elevations above 1000 feet… 2 to 6 inches of wet snow
– Catskills and Taconics above 1500 feet… 5 to 10 inches of snow

We will have more late on Wednesday, as new data continues to come in.

Tuesday Discussion : Trouble is Brewing

After a raw start to the work week, we’ve got some big improvements on the way for Tuesday.

Clouds will quickly give way to sunshine on Tuesday, as our disturbance from Monday drifts southward and out to sea.  Our winds will be out of the northeast, which will prevent temperatures from getting too warm, but we should see afternoon highs into the low 60s under mostly sunny skies.  A fine improvement over our Monday weather.  Mostly clear skies Tuesday night will allow temps to dip into the upper 30s for much of the valley.  Then on Wednesday winds shift out of the southwest… and temperatures will once again climb into the 60s.  However, clouds will also return to the region during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, in advance of our next storm system.

Trouble Brewing for Thursday into Friday?

Late in the winter season (or early in spring), snow events are very hard to come by.  The colder air begins moving into the northern latitudes, and the heating of the sun’s rays is much stronger due to the higher sun angle.  But one of the ways to get a snow event in April, is with a closed off upper level low pressure system… and that’s what we’ll have Thursday afternoon into Friday.  An upper level low causes the air beneath it to rise… when it rises, it cools, and ultimately an upper level low pressure can create it’s own cold air.  So temperatures will tumble rapidly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night around the region.

Futurecast Temperatures : 12am Thursday – 12am Friday

The combination of a coastal surface low pressure and the upper level low pressure will generate maximum cooling, and get surface temperatures within a degree or two of freezing.  Temperatures at cloud level are plenty cold enough to support snow, and the result on the computer models looks like this…

Futurecast Radar : Wednesday 8pm – Friday 8am

A soaking rain on Thursday is likely to transition over to a wet snow for portions of the Hudson Valley.  The big question to answer in the coming 2 days… will be WHERE this event occurs.  Upper level low pressure systems are extra tricky to pinpoint in a forecast, and this time of year… the position is required to be just right for us to get cold enough to support snow.  The trend over the last few runs has the heaviest snow pushing into New England… so we’ll have to keep tabs on the details as we get closer.  Our forecast right now calls for rain mixing with wet snow in the valley, and wet snow in the Catskills… but the position of the moisture and the upper level low will determine if we need to start talking about accumulations or not.

This is why we ‘never say never’ in forecasting.  Events like this are very unpredictable, and can materialize seemingly out of nowhere.  Likewise… a minor shift in the track of the upper level low pressure, and it’s a cold rain for us… with heavy snows in New England.  But this is a dramatic turn of events in what was a warm start to April.  A cold, early spring nor’easter could bring some unwelcome wintry reminders to the region.  We’ll monitor the data on Tuesday, and share updates as able.

For today… enjoy what should be a rather nice afternoon!

Monday Afternoon Discusion : Unsettled and Damp

We have a cloudy and unsettled start to the work week in the Hudson Valley. A frontal boundary associated with a low pressure over the Great Lakes will linger in our region through tonight, before slowly exiting the region by Tuesday morning. Until then, we’ll be mainly cloudy with periods of light rain showers and drizzle. Expect damp and chilly conditions, with temps holding in the upper 40s and low 50s.
1pm NY Regional Radar Loop
 
Conditions will improve on Tuesday as the moisture exits the region. However, it seems like low clouds may hold on, and could keep temps in the low to mid 50s. But if we get breaks of sun, we could see temps climb into the upper 50s and low 60s Tuesday afternoon.
 
The next chance for rain comes on Thursday, as an upper level low pressure and coastal storm take aim on the northeast. That has the potential to bring a cold rain, with temps in the 30s and low 40s on Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact details… some wet snow could mix in, especially in the higher elevations like the Catskills. We’ll keep an eye on everything. Have a great afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : One More Warm Day

After a cold start to the first few days of April, temps have warmed up nicely over the last 5 days… giving us some beautiful weather for early April.  We’ll try our best to squeak out one more nice day around the region on Saturday, before the pattern begin to change.

A southerly breeze off the Atlantic will start us off with mainly cloudy skies and patchy fog across the region.  However as the morning progresses, we should see increasing amounts of sunshine, especially as you move further north… away from the ocean.  During the afternoon hours the northern 2/3 of the Hudson Valley (Orange & Putnam counties and points north) should see a mix of clouds and sunshine.  That should allow afternoon highs to climb up toward 70° once again.  This would be another beautiful day across those portions of the Hudson Valley.  However, because of the moist southeasterly flow… the low clouds could linger in parts of Rockland and Westchester counties… possibly even southern portions of Orange and Putnam counties.  With the reduced sunshine and breeze, temps could be pinned down a bit… struggling into the low and mid 60s.  So we’ll have to monitor the amount of cloudiness that lingers as we go through the day.  Hopefully the sunshine does a good job of burning off the low clouds, and we get one more beautiful day.  Because things will change considerably on Sunday.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 8pm Sunday

A slow moving upper level low pressure across the middle of the nation will gradually begin to influence our weather in the Hudson Valley.  Sunday morning a band of rain should rotate northeastward into our region, spreading rain from SW to NE through the daytime hours.  Temperatures will be held down in the 50s, due to the clouds and moisture in the region.  Sunday will be the beginning of a multi-day period of more unsettled and cooler weather.  Temperatures are more likely to be in the 50s for the majority of the coming week… as opposed to the 60s and 70s we’ve seen the past few days.

So if you can find a way to enjoy Saturday’s weather… make sure you take the opportunity.  Because it will be the nicest day we see in the coming week.  Have a great Saturday!

Thursday Discussion : Another Winner

We’ve had a great stretch of weather in the region of late, and that trend continues on Thursday.
Lots of sunshine and blue skies, along with a ridge of high pressure over the eastern US, will help push temperatures into the low 70s in much of the Hudson Valley on Thursday. Average highs in the valley are in the mid to upper 50s for this time of year… so low 70s are gorgeous for early April.
 
Clouds will try to force their way back into our region overnight and into Friday morning… we could even have a few spotty rain showers Friday afternoon as the clouds advance in. But the showers will be scattered and not overly heavy… exiting the region Friday night. Even with the clouds and threat of showers, temps should climb into the low and mid 60s. Saturday looks nice to start the weekend… before rain advances into the region Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Enjoy your afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion : Get Outside for Goodness Sake!

It’s not very often that we tell you what to do… but today, we’re going to make an exception.  Wednesday will likely start out mostly cloudy with a few spotty rain showers as a weak wave of energy pushes through the western parts of the region.  But from mid to late morning on… the day looks outstanding!

Clouds will give way to partly cloudy skies by noon… and mostly sunny skies by mid afternoon.  Winds in the morning will be out of the northwest, but the air mass to our west is so warm that our afternoon temperature should still climb into the mid and upper 60s despite the northerly wind.  Afternoon highs could hit 70° in parts of the Hudson Valley Wednesday afternoon along with the mostly sunny skies… which would be 10 to 15 degrees above average.  The only downside, is that it’s the middle of the week, so many people will be at work and school.  But hopefully you can still make some time to enjoy the gorgeous weather.

Moving through the remainder of the week, we’ll have enough high pressure over New England shielding us from any rain showers through Friday.

Futurecast Radar : Thursday 8am – Friday 8am

You can see that the storm system over the midwest struggles to move east, because of the high pressure over the eastern US.  This high pressure and upper level ridge should hold any unsettled weather off to our west through Saturday.  But by Saturday night and Sunday, it looks like a storm system will reach the east coast, and could bring a needed soaking rain to the Hudson Valley.  We’ll keep our eye on things… but for now, have a wonderful Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Sunny Start to the Week

A storm over the Atlantic Ocean, a high pressure over the Great Lakes, and the Hudson Valley in between.  The end result will be a very nice start to the work week in our area.

A NW wind in the Hudson Valley will be the result of the front edge of high pressure trying to keep us sunny and dry.  An ocean storm will back it’s way into eastern New England, and bring a mix of rain and snow into Maine.  But the approaching high pressure will block the New England storm from reaching the Hudson Valley.  The end result should be mostly sunny skies, with afternoon highs in the low 60s.  A few high clouds could approach from the east Monday evening… as that ocean storm tries its best to reach the Hudson Valley.  In the end, high pressure should win out, and aside from some clouds Monday night, we should remain dry.  Sunshine should return for Tuesday, and give us another fine spring day in the region… that looks a lot like Monday’s weather.

We hope everyone’s week gets off to a great start.  The detailed 5 day forecast can be found here : HVW 5 Day Forecast 

Saturday Discussion : Cool Blue Skies

A sunny spring day in the Hudson Valley. A bit cool (upper 40s and low 50s), but not far from the average for this time of year (Poughkeepsie – 55°).
If you like Saturday’s weather, then you’ll be very pleased with Easter Sunday’s weather. We’ll have some clouds to start, but skies should quickly turn mostly sunny by afternoon, with highs climbing into the mid and upper 50s for highs.
 
A nice early spring weekend, with regard to the weather. Hopefully everyone can take advantage of the sunshine and seasonable temps, and enjoy their weekend!

Friday Discussion : Winter’s Last Gasp?

The calendar officially is flipped to April, and we dodged the bullet of an April Fool’s snow event.  Unfortunately, we won’t escape the arctic air behind the cold front.

The average high temperature for April 2nd is 55°.  We won’t be anywhere close to that on Friday, as Old Man Winter takes one more swipe at the Hudson Valley.  Highs likely will struggle to get out of the 20s and into the low 30s on Friday.  If that ends up being correct, that’s roughly 25° below average for the date.  What makes matters worse, the NW winds will blow at 5 to 15mph through the day, gusting upwards of 20mph at times.  When you factor those winds into the temperatures we just discussed, you will see AFTERNOON wind chills that look like this…

It will likely feel like the mid 20s throughout the entire region in the middle of the afternoon… which is more typical of a cold day in mid January… let alone early April.  Chances are good that Friday will be a real shock to the system for many people, as it’s going to feel like you went to sleep and woke up 3 months ago.  Especially when you factor in that the month of March was much milder than average across the eastern half of the US.

March Temperatures Compared to Averages

As we head into the weekend, the chill will slowly wane across the region, as the April sunshine and regional airmass is just too warm for bitter cold like what is in store for Friday to linger for more than a day or so.  Sunshine on Saturday will help afternoon highs climb back toward the low 50s… despite a WNW wind.  Easter Sunday is a bit of a tricky call, because we’ll have more clouds to contend with.  If the clouds are persistent and extensive… highs may struggle to reach 50°.  However, if we can get some sunshine to build in by late morning, we could see afternoon highs near 60°.

The bright side, is that when you start out this cold on Friday… things can only look up.  Bundle up and stay warm for your Friday… temps will improve through the weekend.

Thursday Discussion : Rain Mixing with High Elevation Wet Snows

We hope everyone had a wonderful Wednesday.
Futurecast Radar : 12am to 12pm Thursday
This futurecast radar loop shows the 12 hours from midnight tonight, through noon on Thursday. Cold air will be rushing into the region overnight. Temps in the valley are still in the low to mid 50s at midnight, but will tumble into the upper 30s and near 40° by 6am in the valley. The Catskills will be even colder, in the mid 30s.
…Valley Areas…
So the valley areas will see periods of rain into the morning hours. While cold will be sinking into the region, it just won’t get quite cold enough in the valley Thursday morning. With temps in the upper 30s to near 40°… the valley likely won’t see much more than some wet snow flakes mixing in at the end.
… Higher Elevations & Catskills …
The higher elevations could be a slightly different story. If temps can fall into the mid 30s, a period of steady wet snow is possible before tapering off by late morning. This could result in a slushy coating to an inch or two on grassy areas… and areas over 1500 feet in elevation could see 2 or 3 inches of wet snow.
 
We’ll monitor the situation Thursday morning to see if any changes to the forecast are expected. But the precipitation should exit the region before noon on Thursday. The afternoon will see mainly cloudy skies with temps in the mid 40s. Have a great Thursday!