Detailed Forecast

Weekend Outlook : Coastal Storm Threatens to Bring a Wet Weekend

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– Rain likely for Saturday
– Period of heavy rain possible late AM into PM hours
– Breezy conditions, gusts 20mph to 35mph possible
– Remains unsettled into Sunday
 
A sub tropical low pressure system is expected to develop off the southeast coast and move northward. It could strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia… but it will have a lot of characteristics of a non-tropical storm. The storm will drift northward, and be forced inland due to strong high pressure in place over New England and eastern Canada. The battle between strong high pressure to our north… and this coastal storm to our south, presents a tricky forecast for the weekend.
A band of rain is likely to move into the Hudson Valley early Saturday morning (between 5am and 10am). There could be a band of moderate to heavy rain on the north side of the system, and that could impact our area around mid day. Winds could become gusty out of the northeast, up to 35mph. So this storm could feel very much like an autumn nor’easter.
The center of low pressure will remain suppressed south… in Virginia, despite the periods of rain in our area on Saturday. That sets the stage for Sunday to be unsettled as well. Saturday’s band of rain pushes through the region before midnight Saturday night. But with the low pressure center stalled over Virginia… that makes our Sunday forecast very tricky… and likely unsettled. Sunday is likely to see leftover showers and localized downpours… along with gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Temps on Saturday are likely to hold in the upper 50s to low 60s… with Sunday slightly warmer in the low to mid 60s.
 
A potentially raw and windy weekend coming up… we’ll be tracking things closely as we go. More updates to follow….

Monday Discussion : Weak Nor’easter Brings Soggy Start to Week

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In the wake of Hurricane Lee’s departure, a boundary over the east coast has set the stage for a weak nor’easter to develop. The moisture we’re seeing Sunday night is from the atmospheric instability well ahead of the developing coastal storm, which is currently over North Carolina. That low pressure will slowly intensify as it races Northeast on Monday. By early Monday evening, that low pressure should be off the coast of Cape Cod.
MONDAY’S FORECAST…
Periods of light to moderate rain will fall on the back side of the deepening low pressure. You can see the futurecast at 7am with widespread showers around the Hudson Valley… which could develop to a more organized area of light to moderate rain by mid day. The further east you go, the more rainfall you are likely to see. Much of the Hudson Valley should see between 0.75″ and 1.50″ of rain. Higher elevations and localized areas could see up to 2″ of rain. The rain should begin to taper off late afternoon or early evening, between 3pm and 9pm.
Beyond the soggy weather of Monday, we should dry out and see lots of sunshine and blue skies Tuesday through Thursday… with afternoon highs in the low 70s… and overnight lows in the upper 40s. Just about what we’d expect for this time of year.
 
An unsettled start to the week, but beautiful weather is heading our way for the majority of the week. Have a great Monday!
 
-Bill

Sunday Discussion : Clouds Increase Ahead of Developing Nor’easter

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That’s right… nor’easter. But in September, that means rain… not snow. In the wake of Hurricane Lee, a trough will dig into the eastern US, and a coastal low pressure will develop over North Carolina Sunday night. That low pressure will race northeast as shown in the first image. That low pressure will push NE on Monday, and keep the Northeast US unsettled with periods of rain.
For the Hudson Valley, this means clouds increasing on Sunday, with highs in the mid 70s. We’ll likely have a nice day on Sunday, before skies become overcast Sunday evening. A batch of rain showers is likely to push into the valley between 8pm and midnight Sunday evening. That batch of showers moves east before sunrise on Monday… likely leaving the Hudson Valley cloudy with patchy areas of showers and drizzle for Monday. We’ll need to monitor the development of the nor’easter. Computer guidance is mixed with how much rain we see in the Hudson Valley on Monday. Most guidance keeps the steady rain to our east on Monday, but a few areas of rain could creep into the Hudson Valley on Monday. So expect rain showers Sunday evening, and the threat of showers to persist through the day on Monday.
Projected rainfall is shown on our 3rd image. You can see the Hudson Valley projecting between 0.50″ and 1.50″ of rain… with the highest totals further east, based on the track of the coastal storm (nor’easter). Conditions should improve again on Tuesday… but until then, more unsettled weather for the Hudson Valley. Updates will be shared as needed. Have a great Sunday!

Sunday Discussion : Unsettled Roads Ahead

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As we move through Sunday afternoon across the Hudson Valley… the rain showers have become more widely scattered, and fewer in number. but the unsettled, humid conditions that have been with us for days now… will remain with us until at least mid week.
THE CAUSE…
The cause of all our atmospheric instability is a persistent trough in the SE US, and a massive ridge of high pressure over eastern Canada. The result is a stalled out frontal boundary draped over the east coast. That’s sending warm and humid air up the coast, and providing some convection to the atmosphere. So each day when the atmosphere heats up… the showers and T-Storms become more numerous and widespread. That will be the case later today and tonight, as well as Monday. Unfortunately, predicting the position of these showers & T-Storms in advance is virtually impossible. So anyone with plans will need to keep an eye on the radar, to see if a rain delay is headed your way. Over the course of the next 3 days, much of the region will see 1 to 3 inches of rain, depending on exactly where those heavier downpours set up.
 
RELIEF ON THE WAY….
A trough will dive in from Canada on Wednesday, and spread more widespread showers and T-Storms. However, this frontal bounday will push through the region… clearing us out by Thursday. Thursday looks cooler, much less humid, and a good deal of sunshine. Best of all… overnight lows near 50° will allow those windows to open and get some fresh air in the house.
 
TRACKING LEE….
Hurricane Lee will continue to lurk in the Atlantic for the next several days. There are some rumblings about Lee hitting our area. We will do a more comprehensive discussion on Lee… but right now, 90% of the data keeps Hurricane Lee out to sea. About 10% of the data suggests Lee could impact New England. We will have to watch closely, but right now almost all computer data keeps Hurricane Lee’s impacts east of the Hudson Valley. More updates to follow….

Monday Discussion : Summer Returns for the Start of September

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A beautiful Labor Day weekend unfolding across the valley. Summer has returned for Labor Day, with lots of sunshine and highs right around 90°.
Humidity will begin building, which should make the temperatures feel more like low to mid 90s. Overnight lows won’t cool off much… with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. The southern flow will keep the humidity in place and prevent temps from cooling off much.
Heat Wave Likely…
A heat wave is when you have 3 consecutive days of high temperatures 90 degrees or higher. After not having a heat wave in July or August… we’re likely to have one in September. Tuesday and Wednesday especially, could have heat index between 93° and 97°… which could trigger some Heat Advisories. It’s unfortunate that this happens AFTER summer vacation for the kids, and they’ll have this heat wave to contend with as they begin their Fall school year. Make sure you take it slow, and use frequent breaks from the heat and humidity.
 
Have a wonderful end to your Labor Day weekend!
-Bill

Labor Day Weekend Outlook – Gorgeous End of Summer

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A 5 star weekend on tap for the unofficial end of summer. A gorgeous, summer like stretch of weather is heading our way… and possibly a late season heat wave for next week. These 3 maps showcase the gradual increase in temperatures as we head through the weekend.
Saturday afternoon should feature mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and temps in the upper 70s to low 80s around the region. Clouds will increase tonight, with a shower or two possible before midnight, followed by clearing skies and comfortable conditions overnight with lows around 60°.
Sunday should see mostly sunny skies… a bit warmer than Saturday, but still comfortable humidity. Highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. That will carry us into Labor Day Monday… which should feature a mix of clouds and sun, and highs around 90°.
Humidity levels should remain relatively comfortable, despite the 90 degree heat on Labor Day. So anyone with plans should have no issues, straight through the holiday weekend!
 
Heat Wave Heading Our Way??…….
Looking ahead, we could have one of the hottest stretches of the summer heading our way for the first week of September. Just in time for kiddos to head back to school. A large ridge of high pressure over North America will allow temperatures to climb well above average in the center of the country. Locally, we still expect temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average as well. Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday all are likely to hit 90°… with even Thursday and possibly Friday holding onto the heat as well. It’s hard to believe, so I just went back and checked… but Poughkeepsie has not had a single heat wave this summer. A heat wave is defined as 3 consecutive days with temperatures above 90°. So with the unofficial end of summer arriving with Labor Day… we’re now slated to have our first heat wave of 2023. So enjoy the beautiful end of summer weekend… and get ready for the heat to return to the Hudson Valley. Thanks for all of your continued support!!

Weekend Outlook : Beautiful Late Summer Weather

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The final weekend in August is here, and anyone with outdoor activities will find that Mother Nature will be cooperating nicely with your plans (unless your plans called for more rain).
 
Saturday will see bright sunshine mixing with high fair weather clouds. The airmass to start the day on Saturday will be warm and rather humid. But a steady NW breeze will gradually dry out the air mass, and humidity levels will fall through the day. Afternoon highs should top out in the low 80s, right about where we should be for late August (Poughkeepsie avg high 81°). Saturday night, temps will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s under mostly clear conditions. A fine late August night.
Sunday looks similar to Saturday in many ways… a mix of clouds and sunshine… comfortable humidity levels, and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs on Sunday project in the upper 70s around the Hudson Valley.
 
Looking at the week ahead… things look fairly quite here in the Hudson Valley. Some high clouds could push in from the south Monday & Tuesday due to the outflow from Hurricane Franklin. But a cold front from Canada swings through Wednesday that pushes everything off to our east, and brings a reinforcing shot of dry air and comfortable temperatures. Not much in the way of rain is expected, with maybe 0.25″ due to scattered showers with the front on Wednesday.
 
TROPICAL TALK…. we’re watching two areas of tropical disturbance in the Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Franklin will push northward between Bermuda and North Carolina, and head NE out to sea. The biggest area of concern with Franklin would be for Bermuda, but the storm should pass west of Bermuda on its way out to sea. Then the next is likely to be Tropical Storm Idalia… which will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and push NE toward western coast and Panhandle of Florida. That system is likely to make landfall at some point around mid week. The concern with Idalia appears to be more around rain than wind. It remains to be seen how strong Idalia will get in terms of wind, but upwards of 5 inches of rain could fall in some areas. So that will be monitored.

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled Weather Returns

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After a couple beautiful days across the Hudson Valley, another frontal boundary has descended into the northeast US and has spread clouds and patchy areas of drizzle and showers with it. As of mid day on Thursday, skies are mainly cloudy with a few areas of drizzle and a couple scattered showers around the region. Temps will be held down because of the low clouds both Thursday and Friday. Highs on Thursday are projected around 70°… and temps could rebound on Friday into the mid 70s.
 
In terms of rainfall threats… Thursday afternoon should remain cloudy with a sprinkle or two. Those conditions will continue into the evening on Thursday… mainly cloudy, a few sprinkles, and spot showers. We will be tracking an area of showers and T-Storms that is expected to develop off to our NW this evening… and it’s projected to track SE toward the Hudson Valley between 3am and 7am on Friday. The heaviest rain looks like it could remain to our west and south… but we’ll need to watch closely. The potential exists for a very wet Friday AM commute.
 
For now, this image shows the projected rainfall for the Hudson Valley between now and Saturday AM. Most of this is the result of the batch of showers & T-Storms we just discussed. The bulk of this would fall Friday morning… but 1 to 2 inches of additional rain cannot be ruled out. Once again, there is a chance the heavier totals are further SW… but for now, we are projecting much of the HV being impacted by moderate to heavy rain for the Friday AM commute.
 
We’ll have additional details this evening…

Sunday Discussion : Warm Start to the Work Week

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Sunday Night: Variable clouds low to mid 60s.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Warm. High in the mid 80s.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low in upper 50s to low 60s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies. High in the mid 70s.
 
A stellar summer Sunday with highs in the low 80s and lots of sun, we’ll watch some high clouds move in Sunday night out ahead of an approaching front. That will mean variable clouds with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Monday looks warm, under a mix of clouds and sunshine. We’ll see increasing clouds through the day with that front approaching. There is virtually no moisture with this front, so a spot shower is all we would expect. The frontal boundary pushes through Monday night, and winds will shift, and temps will fall overnight. Setting the stage for a beautiful Tuesday… with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s.
Looking toward the end of the week, while much of the US will be sizzling in a late August heat wave, the Hudson Valley and Northeast looks quite comfortable. Another Canadian cold front will approach late in the week, which could spread another round of showers into the Northeast. The timing on that looks to be Thursday night into Friday…. but behind that front could be a spectacular early autumn weekend with temps in the 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s.
 
We’ll have updates through the week. Enjoy the remainder of your Sunday, and have a great start to the week!

Weekend Outlook : Several Days of Beautiful Weather

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In the last 7 days the entire Hudson Valley saw 2 to 3 inches of rain… and some localized areas saw up to 6 inches of rain. An average August would see about 4.2 inches of rain. So this past week some areas saw a month’s worth of rain in one week. So we don’t need any more rain… and thankfully, at least for a few days, it looks like that’s what we’re going to get.
 
Saturday has been beautiful across the region. Lots of sunshine and blue skies… low humidity, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. A comfortable breeze to give an early autumn feel to the air. We’ll watch temps drop into the low and mid 50s Saturday night, before setting up a beautiful late summer Sunday.
Sunday should feature partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low to mid 80s. A fantastic day for outdoor activities in the 2nd half of August. That will lead into the work week, where Monday will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, along with highs in the mid 80s.
Clouds will be on the increase Monday afternoon, as an approaching cold front swings down from Canada. The cold front should push through with little fanfare Monday night, with maybe a spot shower at most. That will set the stage for a cool, crisp and comfortable Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s and low humidity.
Those comfortable conditions will continue into late week, with our next shot at widespread rain coming late Thursday into Friday… when a low pressure system could move into the northeast. We’ll keep our eye on that… but the big take away is the tranquil and comfortable weather the Hudson Valley has lined up for the coming week. Hopefully, everyone can enjoy the rest of the weekend, and will have a great week ahead. Thank you all for your continued support!