Detailed Forecast

The humidity is definitely spiking on this final Friday of May.  But we have a cold front approaching from the northwest, and it will clash with the warm and humid air in the Hudson Valley.  Temperatures around the region are in the upper 70s and low 80s… and dew points are in the low 70s… making for a very muggy feel to the air.  That will give us the threat of severe weather later today around the region…

In terms of the severe threat, the Hudson Valley is divided in half.  Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe weather… a few scattered T-storms are possible especially as we approach evening.  Because the storms will be coming from the west… our eastern viewing areas have a lower risk for severe weather.  That’s because the storm threat doesn’t hit until the heating of the day is lost.  Here’s the futurecast simulation for this afternoon and evening…

The threat for severe weather remains rather low… but we’ll have to keep tabs on the situation as the evening unfolds.

A picture perfect Sunday around the Hudson Valley. Brilliant sunshine and blue skies should be the story today. After a chilly start, temps should warm into the low 70s around the region. For Memorial Day, we’ll see similar conditions… pushing temperatures into the low and possibly mid 70s! Some great weather for the Hudson Valley region, after a month that’s featured snow just 2 weeks ago. Have a great Sunday!!

After a rather decent week of weather, things will take a turn just in time for the weekend.  A weak disturbance along the coast will spread clouds and scattered rain showers into the northeast for our Saturday.  We don’t expect a washout, but the threat of a showers will be with us through evening.

Saturday Radar Simulation : 6am to 8pm

Saturday evening the showers should taper, and skies should clear with a northeasterly flow.  Temps overnight should fall into the upper 40s.  That sets the stage for a decent Sunday.  Partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with a NE breeze… and highs around 70°.  A very nice improvement from Saturday’s unsettled weather.  Finally as we look toward the Memorial Day holiday, clouds mixing with sunshine, and temperatures again around 70°… not too bad all things considered.  So if you’re hoping to have a little BBQ outdoors, you should be good for that.

Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy… have a great weekend!

Hope everyone is enjoying the tail end of a fantastic spring weekend. Sunshine, high clouds, and a light SE breeze. Temps around the region are in the upper 60s (Catskills) and low 70s in the valley.

As we head into the work week… an upper level low pressure gets trapped over the eastern US. It will mean multiple days of unsettled weather. Scattered showers are possible tonight, with those unsettled conditions and spot showers being possible on Monday. At this point, it looks like the steady rain will be to our south and west… but upper level lows are unpredictable. Conditions should slowly and gradually improve by mid week. Not ideal weather, but surely not the cold and snow we saw last weekend! Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and start of your work week.

If it feels like it was only a week ago that we were talking about snow… well, it was.

But on this Friday, it’s not snow that we have to worry about… it’s severe weather.  We’ll outline the threat, and then give our thoughts.

This is what the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center thinks the threat looks like for Friday night.  A low pressure system will drag a cold front across the northeast.  The relatively warm and moist air in the Hudson Valley (highs likely in the low 80s), will set the stage for some strong to severe thunderstorms as the front approaches.  The severe threat with these storms will include:
– Damaging wind gusts over 50mph (up to 30% chance)
– Large Hail (<15% chance)
– Isolated Tornado (< 5% chance)

Timing of the front will be the key, because most of the storms will be fueled by the heat of the day.  So once the sun sets, the severe threat will gradually diminish.  Here’s a simulation of the front moving through.

HRRR Futurecast Simulation : 2pm to 2am

You can clearly see the line of storms packing a punch during the afternoon, but it weakens considerably by its arrival in the Hudson Valley.  This simulation has the storms reach the Catskills shortly after 8pm… and spread into the rest of the region between 8pm and 10pm.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning are possible.

But if this scenario plays out… the Hudson Valley very likely will escape the worst.  Here is another scenario with a similar outcome….

This snapshot for 8pm has the line of storms even slower than the first simulation.  As of 8pm, the storms don’t even appear in the Hudson Valley (lower right of image).  This would be good news for the region, because while some thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible… we would be spared any widespread severe threat.

With all of that said… in these situations, we always prepare for the worst… and hope for the best.  We’ll try to share updates as the day progresses on Friday.  But let’s take some good news out of this whole thing… Friday is going to be absolutely gorgeous… with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.  Hopefully some of you can get out and enjoy it!

Well… how’s THIS for your mid day radar on ‘May 9th? Howling NW winds at 10 to 25mph, gusting over 35mph… with temperatures in the low to mid 30s in the Catskills… upper 30s to low 40s in the Hudson Valley… but wind chills in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

For the afternoon, expect the howling winds to continue, and a few snow flurries or even a snow squall can’t be ruled out in the valley. Where we see a snow squall, expect low visibility and very strong wind gusts. In the Catskills, expect snow showers and squalls through the afternoon, with a coating to an inch or two possible. Afternoon temps won’t move much… highs in the mid 30s for the Catskills, and low to mid 40s in the valley. Reminder… the average high for today in Poughkeepsie is 71 degrees. We’ll be 25 to 35 degrees below average today around the regions… making it feel more like early February. Bundle up, stay warm, and hold onto your hat!

A potential record breaking cold air mass on the way to the Hudson Valley… will set the stage for a potential snow event in the month of May.

The issue here, is that this is such an extreme event, that the computer guidance is all over the place on this setup.  The NAM model shown above is much warmer than what we saw just 24 hours ago.  The issue is that the boundary is projected to be further north, keeping milder air in the region, and slowing the progression of the arctic air into the Hudson Valley.  If this solution is correct, it’s a slushy coating on grass at most in the Hudson Valley.

However, the data is not in full agreement.  The GFS and European models both still suggest the colder solution… in addition, the most upgraded tool, the HRRR v4 is much colder than the HRRR v3.  It’s a difference of whether Poughkeepsie is closer to 48° at 9pm (like the HRRR v3 suggests) … or 34° at 9pm (per the HRRR v4).  That’s a whopping difference of 14° for the same tool, at the same hour… depending on whether you use the traditional HRRR, or the upgraded HRRR.

If the upgraded model is correct, a coating to 3 inches across much of the Hudson Valley is possible.  So we’ll have to see how things unfold Friday evening.  This is a very rare setup, a chance for accumulating snow in the Hudson Valley in May.  No matter what happens… expect Saturday’s weather to feel like the middle of winter.  Highs on Saturday only in the low 40s… but winds gusting over 35mph will make it feel like January!!

Updates as possible on Friday…

Ok… we’ll play your game, Mother Nature.

We’ve been sitting on this for a few days, afraid to say anything… because it’s May.  But we’ve got enough guidance agreeing with this idea, that we’re going to talk about it as a real possibility.  Snow appears likely Friday night, and it does appear that it could accumulate.  Here’s the simulated radar from 2pm Friday, through 8am Saturday…

Futurecast Radar : 2pm Fri – 8am Sat

The loop runs rather quick, but once you locate the Hudson Valley in the lower right quadrant of the map… you’ll see that rain moves in near sunset on Friday… and turns over to snow across the ENTIRE Hudson Valley after dark, before exiting the region after midnight.

Really HVW??  Can this Really Happen??

In a word… yes.  We had snow around April 17th in many parts of the region.  But many areas near the Hudson River, and especially south of Poughkeepsie, were a degree or two too warm and saw mostly a cold rain.  The difference here, is that this cold air mass invading the HV is colder than April 17th’s storm.  Additionally, chilly air is already in place ahead of the arctic air and developing coastal storm.  So as the storm develops, it’s got plenty of cold air to tap into, and it should cool the atmosphere into the low and mid 30s across all parts of the Hudson Valley… even at valley level, near the Hudson River eventually.

This is a rather aggressive snowfall map, but it highlights some of the items we want to focus on.  First… you can see the darker blues and purples in the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley.  That’s because they’ll be the coldest locations, and most capable of seeing higher accumulations (more than 3″) of snow.  You can also see the wild swings in accumulations across the valley.   That’s due to the wild variance in temperatures based on elevation, and wind direction in this event.  Down slope winds could keep temps a bit warmer in some areas, and allow snow to fall in some areas where it did not fall in the April snow event.  The average high for Friday is 71°… the AVERAGE.  But we’re talking about snow Friday night.  Because of the extreme nature of this event… don’t get hung up on accumulations in any one area.  It’s all going to come down to the little details, that models will struggle with.  The general story will likely be… rain… mixing with snow after dark, changing to all snow before midnight… and tapering off after midnight.  Wet snow accumulation of a slushy coating to 2 inches are possible on grassy areas… and locally 4 or 5 inches above 1500 feet.

We’ve got our hands full again… expect updates on Thursday as we continue to wrap our hands around this situation.  Have a great Thursday!  Temps will be around 60°… which is still cool for this time of year.