Sunday Discussion: Clouds Hang Tough

More clouds than Saturday around the Hudson Valley, as a very weak cold front pushes toward the region.

The weather looks quiet until mid week, when we should see a storm system swing down from southern Canada. That could spell chilly and raw conditions for Wednesday morning, with rain shower likely.

We hope everyone stays healthy and safe!  Enjoy your Sunday, and if you can, the sunny start to the week that we expect!

Wednesday Discussion : We’re All Fools This Year

For reasons we cannot yet understand, Wednesday has not started off cloudy and damp… like each of the previous 4 days.  We’re not sure if something is wrong with Mother Nature, but we’re looking into it.  We know everyone has gotten accustomed to low clouds, drizzle, fog and raw conditions… so we don’t want everyone to panic.
 
It looks right now, like this bright light in the sky could be with us today and tomorrow, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s.  But please remain calm… it looks like clouds, drizzle and raw conditions will return for Friday.  So please just use extra caution until ‘normal’ weather returns on Friday.
 
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… in all seriousness, we hope everyone enjoys the sunshine and clouds today and tomorrow.  In light of recent events, our sarcasm is as far as we’re prepared to go for April Fools day.  It may feel like 2020 has been one big unfunny joke so far, but here’s to us turning the corner and having better things on the horizon soon.  Lets all keep doing our part, staying at home as much as possible… and hopefully we can start getting little bits and pieces of our normalcy back before too long.  We’re all in this together, Hudson Valley… Happy Wednesday, and lets make it a good one!!

Tuesday Discussion : Out Like a Lamb

After a January and February that were well above average, our March followed right in the footsteps.

So that puts a wrap on our lack of winter.  We’ll have a formal recap at some point, but without question this has been the warmest first 90 days we have ever tracked in the Hudson Valley.  It would take a more detailed analysis to confirm it’s the warmest first 90 days of any year on record in Poughkeepsie.

Looking Ahead…

A slow start to spring is underway, where temperatures are fairly close to where they should be for this time of year.  Average highs in Poughkeepsie are in the low 50s, and we’ll likely be in that area for the remainder of the week.

Tuesday starts off unsettled, and likely stays that way.  Lots of clouds, possibly a few rain or wet snow showers in the morning.  Clouds should linger in the afternoon, with highs in the mid 40s.  Wednesday will see some unsettled conditions at times… but more sunshine is likely, and highs should crack into the low 50s… close to average.  A strong storm will head out to sea well to our south, and that will turn our flow out of the NE for Thursday and Friday.  So while we don’t expect any rain of significance, low clouds could linger for the end of the work week, with highs held down in the 40s.

Beyond this week, we should see conditions improve for the weekend.  Sunshine should mix in, and temperatures should climb into the mid and upper 50s, possibly even low 60s for the weekend.  The good news for the moment, is the same persistent features that provided us the warm winter… should hold enough ground to give us a decently mild month of April.  We’ll see if that holds… because we sure could use some nice weather so we can get outside and breathe some fresh air.

Storm Recap : Monday Wet Snow Event

On the back end of a lackluster winter, we weren’t going to do a full recap of the underwhelming winter storm from Monday, March 23rd.  However, after reviewing some comments…

… we decided to do a quick recap.  First is our final forecast, followed by the actual storm results…

 

In short… the forecast played out rather close to expected.  The Catskills saw slightly less than expected, with totals much closer to the 5 or 6 inch amounts… than the 10 inch side of the 5 to 10 inch forecast.  The 2 to 6 inch forecast area also saw totals on the lower end… much closer to 2 or 3 inches than the higher end of the range.

But hands down, the most criticized part of the forecast was the coating to 4 inch range for the Hudson Valley.  Well, we overlayed that forecast range on the Snow History map.  Zones 3,7 and 8 are boxed in black.  The forecast there was for a coating to 4 inches.  Reviewing totals in that area… we have 1″ in Hamptonburgh, 1.1″ in Poughkeepsie, 2.3″ in Red Hook, 3.5″ in Rosendale.  If you look at the map and not the totals… you can see the pockets of higher snowfall in the higher elevations of Orange County, Putnam County and Dutchess County.  Snowfall amounts were directly correlated to elevation, and widely ranging.

We thank you for the continued support, and truly love doing what we do.  Sharing in the community is an awesome privilege, and makes everything worth while.  We don’t mind if people disagree with our forecast.  Often times a viewer will articulate that they think the setup will unfold differently, and the result will be different.  It’s all about how you express your opinion.  That said, we won’t hesitate to tell trolls where it’s at, when they post comments like these.  lol.

Hope everyone stays safe and healthy!

Tuesday Discussion : Return of the Sun

Winter sent us a nasty reminder on Monday, that despite the calendar indicating that we are now in spring, Mother Nature can always deliver a surprise or two.  A wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain spread across the Hudson Valley, providing a wide variety of conditions depending on your location and elevation.  We’ll pull together the details as soon as we can, but the weather played a rather small role in everyone’s plans… thanks to our new found social distancing.  Even so… reports of car accidents were rather numerous during a burst of heavier sleet and snow Monday afternoon.

But with a new day, brings new weather… and a much nicer day.  Sunshine will return to the region, with a persistent north wind.  That will keep temperatures from jumping too much, likely holding in the 40s for afternoon highs.  The wind will add a bit of a chill for sure.  Then another storm will approach for Wednesday… but this storm appears poised to stay further south, and likely will just be some scattered rain and wet snow showers.  We’ll monitor the situation, but the event looks much less impressive than our Monday event.

Then we’ll clear out again on Thursday… before another frontal boundary approaches for Friday and Saturday.  The exact position of the boundary is still in doubt.  So the early guidance was for rain showers on Friday and Saturday… and that is still possible.  However, the boundary could be pressed further south, and that could give us nicer weather for Friday and Saturday.  Another feature we’ll be monitoring.

For now however… please take care of yourselves, and stay healthy and safe.  Thank you for your continued support!

Final Storm Forecast : Monday 3/23/20

Our storm system is on the way for Monday.  However, it’s now spring, so your location and elevation, will be a factor in how much snow you see in your area.

Timing:
– 6am to 10am:  Snow showers possible from SW to NE
– 10am to 1pm:  Steady snow develops from SW to NE
– 12pm to 6pm:  Snow falls moderate to heavy at times
– 3pm to 7pm:  Snow mixes/changes to rain from south to north
– 6pm to 10pm:  Rain/wet snow showers taper off from west to east

Impact:
– Mainly wet roads in the valley, temps generally 32° to 37°
– Snow accumulation mainly on unpaved surfaces
– Roads could become snow covered and slick during bursts of heavier snow
– Catskills and elevations over 1000 feet, best chance of snow covered roads
– Snowfall accumulations will increase with elevation
– Low elevations under 500 feet, will struggle to accumulate, may change over to rain at times

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Locations over 1500 feet (Zone 1,2) : 5 to 10 inches
– Southern Catskills, Shawangunks, Hurley Highlands, Taconics (Zone 4,5,6):  2 to 6 inches
– Hudson Valley (Zone 3,7,8) : Coating to 4 inches (mostly on unpaved surfaces)
– Extreme Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 9) : Coating to 2 inches (mostly on unpaved surfaces)

Commentary:
It’s not winter anymore, so with a higher sun angle, and warmer temperatures… the uncertainty on accumulations is rather high. Snow will develop during the morning, likely starting out as disorganized snow showers. But a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely during the early to mid afternoon. That’s when roads could become a bit slick, especially in the higher elevations.

But both the upper air and surface air is warmer this time of year. As a result, lower elevations will likely see a changeover to rain late in the day. Timing that changeover is a bit tricky. If a mix/changeover occurs around 2 or 3pm… accumulations will likely be closer to a coating to an inch. However, if the changeover holds off until after 6pm, accumulations could hit 4 or 5 inches of wet snow. We’ll have to see how things unfold.

The snow will be a heavy, wet snow… that sticks like paste to all unpaved surfaces. We don’t expect many issues with power outages, but we’ll have to monitor things. Temps generally above freezing should allow the snow to melt before too much accumulates on tree branches or powerlines.

We’ll have more commentary as we go… as winter tries to make a last stand. This is not a major event by any stretch… but in a winter devoid of wintry weather, we’ve got something to track. Have a nice evening!

Preliminary Snowfall Forecast : Monday 3/23/20

Winter is over, and Spring has arrived.  But after sparing us all winter, Mother Nature has a little surprise in store for our Monday.  Our first winter storm in ages could complicate our Monday evening travel plans…

Timing:
– 6am to 10am:  Snow develops from SW to NE
– 9am to 1pm:  Snow tapers to snow showers for a time
– 12pm to 4pm:  Snow falls moderate to heavy at times
– 2pm to 6pm: Snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to north
– 6pm to 10pm:  Rain/wet snow showers taper off from west to east

Impact:
– Mainly wet roads in the valley, temps generally 32° to 36°
– Snow accumulation mainly on unpaved surfaces
– Roads could become snow covered and slick during bursts of heavier snow
– Catskills and elevations over 1000 feet, best chance of snow covered roads

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Locations over 1000 ft (Zone 1,2,5,6) : 4 to 8 inches
– HV north of I-84 (Zone 3,4,7) : 2 to 6 inches (mostly on unpaved surfaces)
– HV south of I-84 (Zone 8 & 9) : Coating to 3 inches

No major changes from our previous discussion on how this storm will unfold.  Additional discussion will be had for more details on Sunday.

Saturday Discussion : Watching Monday Snow Threat

Our biggest storm of the season came on the back end of autumn (December 1st), spreading a general 8 to 14 inches of snow around the region.  Then in January, February and first half of March, we saw a combined 4 inches of snow in Poughkeepsie.  So now that winter has ended, and spring is officially here… we’ve got snow on the menu for Monday.
 
A cold front pushed through overnight.  Sunday night, a wave of low pressure will ride NE along that boundary, and move off the coast of Virginia.  That will spread snow northward, into the Hudson Valley during the day on Monday.
However, it’s very late in the season, that there are multiple factors working against this event.  The late March sun is higher in the sky, and it will warm the Hudson Valley air, as well as warm the paved surfaces.  So, while we do anticipate a moderate to at times heavy snow to fall in the region Monday afternoon, snow will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces.  So here are the keys right now:
 
– Snow begins between 8am & 12pm Monday
– Heaviest snow during afternoon & early evening
– Snow tapers around midnight Monday night
– Snow mainly accumulates on grass & unpaved surfaces
– During heavy snow, roads may become snow covered
 
So we’ll have a preliminary forecast issued by tonight, and the final forecast issued Sunday night.  Travel will be minimized for obvious reasons, but this storm could still cause some additional problems to everyone’s Monday.  More details to come… enjoy your Saturday afternoon!

Friday PM Update : Clouds Shelter in Place

Apparently the low clouds are not practicing their social distancing, and are refusing to vacate the premises. Guidance had suggested that the clouds would disburse… to no more than 10 clouds in any one area, but clearly they are disobeying the orders.

The result is we have mainly cloudy skies, and patchy areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures have been pinned down in the 50s as well, not yet climbing into the 60s or near 70 as expected. It is doubtful that temps will surge upward without the clouds breaking up… but we will continue to monitor things.

Current Radar: 1:45pm

The positive side to the clouds holding their position, is the atmosphere is much more stable than some guidance indicated. So the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms is significantly less. You can see on this radar, that some showers and localized downpours are over northern PA and southern NY. Those will continue moving our way this afternoon, arriving between 3pm and 6pm on average. We’ll keep our eye on things through the afternoon. Be safe, stay healthy, and as Alex says… “Keep Calm and Weather On.”

Friday Discussion : Warm then Possibly Storms

On Friday, we’ll see scattered morning showers, followed potentially by some sunshine breaking through.  The SW wind will pull warm air up into the Hudson Valley and give us temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s for afternoon highs.  The problem comes with the warming of the atmosphere and the potential sunshine that should break through.

Futurecast Radar : Friday 8am – Friday 10pm

The line of showers and thunderstorms will develop to our west, and be accompanied by strong wind gusts possibly over 50mph.  As a result, a slight severe weather threat is on the table for Friday afternoon.  The timing of these storms appears to be between 3pm and 8pm.  Guidance is a bit conflicted, both in the timing and the strength of the line of storms.  So they will need to be watched as we move through the day on Friday.

We’ll try to have updates on the Facebook page as we get closer.