The title of this post completely ignores what is directly in front of us, and that is a rather nice Wednesday, all things considered…
Morning sunshine will allow the temperatures to quickly rise into the 60s… possibly near 70° in the northern Hudson Valley, where the skies will remain mostly sunny for longer. Clouds will advance quickly near mid day on Wednesday, and spotty rain showers and even an isolated rumble of thunder is possible. Mostly cloudy skies will become cloudy by sunrise on Thursday.
Futurecast Radar : Thursday 8am – 8pm
An approaching upper level low from the Great Lakes will begin phasing with a developing coastal low pressure. This will result in expanding and enhanced rainfall over the Hudson Valley and parts of New England. Periods of moderate to at times heavy rain are likely during the day on Thursday. The upper level low pressure will lift and cool the air, which will cause temperatures to fall through the 40s and into the upper 30s by Thursday evening. The higher elevations in the Catskills will mix with and change to wet snow by sunset. After dark, is when things could get rather interesting…
Futurecast Radar : 8pm Thursday – 8am Friday
The position of the upper level low and the surface low will be critical. As the air cools in locations where steady rain is falling… the rain is likely to mix with and change to wet snow. You can see on this futurecast, that the center of low pressure is now likely to be further northeast than earlier guidance. That has shifted the axis of heavy snow further north and east… mostly into New England. The northern Hudson Valley would still be in line to see accumulating snow if this scenario plays out. But the trend has been shifting the storm further to the northeast… so we will continue to monitor it.
We believe that the chances are increasing that the Hudson Valley is spared the worst from this storm system, and New England looks to be the focal point for heaviest snow… but it is still far too early to be certain of anything. What does look increasingly likely, is that the deepening coastal low pressure, combined with the upper level low pressure… may combine to provide a heavy late season wet snow to some areas. The question is where the coastal low pressure is located when the upper level low reaches the coast. Because that will determine where the heavy precipitation is located… and where the heavy snow would be expected to fall.
For now… rain is likely to mix with wet snow Thursday night and early on Friday. The details are subject to change, but for the moment out thinking is:
– I-84 on south… a slushy coating to an inch in higher elevations possible
– I-84 on north… a slushy coating to 3 inches possible (mostly in hill towns)
– Elevations above 1000 feet… 2 to 6 inches of wet snow
– Catskills and Taconics above 1500 feet… 5 to 10 inches of snow
We will have more late on Wednesday, as new data continues to come in.