Sunday Discussion : Fighting a Battle with Clouds

The front has passed, and a much more crisp… comfortable air mass has settled in.  Dew points fell comfortably for the first time in what feels like weeks, and the humidity… finally has broken.  The question for Sunday will be how much low level moisture can come into play, to create what looks likely to be a mostly cloudy day on Sunday.

Guidance suggests that some moisture could sneak up the valley, and present the Hudson Valley with stubborn low clouds and even areas of patchy drizzle for the lower Hudson Valley.  This would certainly put a damper on Sunday outdoor activities… not because of rain and rainfall amounts (this is by no means a washout for anyone)… but because of a stubborn gray dampness that could affect parts of the region.

We’ll have to see how this plays out, because guidance has been quite unsure about the details… and it would not surprise us in the least, if we saw a good deal of sunshine in many parts of the Hudson Valley on Sunday.  So prepare for the threat of clouds through much of the day… but cross your fingers for more sunshine than projected, and a positive end to the weekend.  Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s for most of the region… and humidity will be quite comfortable.  So even if the sun is a stranger on Sunday… at least it will feel much more pleasant.

Have a great Sunday!

Saturday Discussion: Humidity Holds

We hope everyone made out ok after last nights storms, this morning we are seeing a few areas of rain and scattered downpours, but the bulk of the action has pushed out of the region. Unfortunately we are not done with the unsettled weather, it’s appears that passing showers and occasional pop up storm will be possible through the morning and into the early afternoon. By mid afternoon into this evening a more organized line of storms looks to propagate through the region from NW to SE. This will bring a new threat of storms with heavy rain,gusty wind and frequent lightning. 

The good news- This line of storms will be ahead of an incoming cold front, one that will leave us in a NW flow and drying pattern for the remainder of the weekend. Looking ahead to next week, it looks like a few days of highs in the 70’s and low 80’s and lows in the 60’s and 50’s. So we must battle through another day in the rain forest, but the incoming cold front will usher in one of the more refreshing air masses in the last few months. Hang Tight.

Friday Afternoon T-Storm Discussion

A hot summer pattern can bring with it the threat for T-Storms… and this afternoon, that’s what we’ll see.

The entire Hudson Valley is in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather, where damaging wind gusts over 60mph are possible, as well as large hail, and possibly even a stray tornado.  There is a roughly 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 30 miles of your location… and a 2% chance of a tornado spinning up.  Here’s the simulated radar for the event:

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Friday – 6am Saturday

We could see a few pop up T-storms between 3pm and 8pm on Friday… those could be locally severe, with gusts over 60mph possible.  But a line of storms will push in between 7pm and 11pm from west to east… so make sure you’re on your guard this afternoon and evening.

Thursday Discussion : Hot Summer Daze

After days… and weeks of rainfall, Thursday will be day number 2 of tranquil, summer weather.

A good amount of sunshine and hazy blue skies.  Temps will push near 90°, and with dew points in the 60s, it will feel slightly hotter than that.  The good news, is that there will be no rain on Thursday.  That… we’ll save for Friday.  Here’s Friday’s simulated radar from 12pm to 12am during the afternoon and evening

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Friday to 12am Saturday

You can see a fairly potent line of thunderstorms develops during the mid to late afternoon on Friday.  So we’ll have to watch for the potential for strong to severe t-storms… with the potential for flash flooding where excessive rainfall occurs.

Saturday we’ll watch the back end of the front pull through… and with it we could see some scattered showers during the morning on Saturday.  But conditions should improve and dry out as the day progresses on Saturday.  That means anyone with outdoor plans, should be in relatively good shape for Saturday afternoon.  But we’ll work on the details as we get closer.

Have a great Thursday!

The Soggy Summer of 2018 – Mid August Analysis

Summer 2018 started out like your typical summer.  May saw slightly below average rainfall, and the month of June was right near normal.  Then an extended heat wave really dried the region out for the first 2 weeks of July… and then everything changed.  We saw a series of upper level low pressure systems get cut off over the northeast.  The result was a persistent SE flow off the Atlantic, and day after day of rainfall… heavy at times.  This has left parts of the northeast under water, with millions of dollars of flood damage.  Hershey Park was left partly under water, a car dealership in NJ saw half its inventory float away, and the issues continue to mount around the region.

So let’s take a look at the rainfall around the Hudson Valley over the last month or two.  We’ll start with the rainfall totals for this past Saturday into Sunday, where we saw a good deal of rain on Saturday with the arrival of the latest upper level low pressure system…

You’ll notice that even on Saturday, parts of the Hudson Valley saw upwards of 2 inches of rain.  Which could have led to some localized flash flooding… but it looks like most areas escaped unscathed in terms of flooding concerns this weekend.  We don’t yet have the stats for Monday’s rain… but surely it will only add to the totals you see above.

But when we step back and take a look at the month of August as a whole, through the 12th… just look at how wet it’s been!

The average monthly rainfall in Poughkeepsie is about 4.2 inches.  So the average rainfall for the first 12 days of the month is roughly 1.6 inches of rain.  What the region has ACTUALLY seen in those first 12 days, is anywhere from 2 to 4 times the average!  Poughkeepsie has seen 5.14 inches of rain so far in August… over 3 times the average so far in August.  Widespread 2 to 6 inch totals have been observed across the Hudson Valley… with some localized areas near the Tappan Zee Bridge nearing 8 inches!  As you head up into the Catskills, you’re looking at a general 4 to 6 inches of rain… mostly due to elevation enhanced rainfall totals.

But if you REALLY want to be in awe… check out the last 30 days of rainfall in the Hudson Valley…

Just a complete deluge of rainfall across a very large area over the last 30 days.  For a region where the average 30 day rainfall is somewhere around 4.4 inches… Poughkeepsie has seen 11.87 inches of rain!  And unlike many summer rainfalls, that is not an isolated amount.  Look at the widespread area of 10 to 15 inches of rain, represented by the bright purple colors.  That’s roughly 3 times the average rainfall over a 30 day period… enough to cause widespread flooding concerns.  Ultimately, it’s been so wet over the past 30 days… that any new rainfall immediately causes flood concerns to rise.  The ground is completely saturated across the region… so we really could use a break from the rainfall.

Sadly, it doesn’t seem to be in the cards.  Projections have additional dips in the jet stream over the eastern US, which will result in multiple chances of rain.

You can see, that the unsettled conditions don’t appear likely to go away any time soon.  We do expect a break for the middle of the week, but multiple fronts are projected to push through the region over the next 10 days… and those could bring additional rain with them.  The concern will be for heavy downpours, where heavy rainfall amounts occur in short periods of time.  That’s where the greatest threat for Flash Flooding will occur.  We’ll have to monitor the situation closely as we move forward.

As wet as this summer has been so far, it’s not unprecedented in the Hudson Valley… not by a long shot.  In 2011, in the matter of 10 days, we saw Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee drop 7.1 and 5.6 inches respectively in Poughkeepsie… for a combined 12.7 inches in just 10 days!  When we look at the 2 month period, we saw a combined 60 day rainfall of 20.73 inches for the month of August and September, which is roughly a FOOT above average!  So while this summer has certainly been soggy… it’s not unheard of.

Hopefully we can get some dry weather to move in over the coming week or two.  But if guidance is detecting the pattern correctly… it looks like there will be more rain in the offing, over the remainder of August.  Thanks for reading!

Tuesday Discussion : Upper Level Low Woes

The upper level low pressure is finally beginning to exit the Hudson Valley, but not in time for a tranquil Tuesday.  Instead, we’ll have yet another day of unsettled weather.

Futurecast Radar: 11pm Monday – 5pm Tuesday

It looks like we might get a break in the action during the morning hours, before a SW flow creates some lift and we see some scattered showers and T-Storms develop once more.  The pattern is very unpredictable, so best to expect the threat of showers and thunderstorms all day… but the activity will likely be focused after 12pm.

Behind this low pressure exiting, finally on Wednesday, we should dry out.  Which is VERY welcome news, because we have been absolutely SOAKED in the Hudson Valley of late.  Here is the rainfall totals for Saturday into Sunday, where we saw a good deal of rain on Saturday with the arrival of the upper level low pressure…

You’ll notice that even on Saturday, parts of the Hudson Valley saw upwards of 2 inches of rain.  Which could have led to some localized flash flooding… but it looks like most areas escaped unscathed in terms of flooding concerns this weekend.  We don’t yet have the stats for Monday’s rain… but surely it will only add to the totals you see above.

But when we step back and take a look at the month of August as a whole, through the 12th… just look at how wet it’s been!

The average monthly rainfall in Poughkeepsie is about 4.2 inches.  So the average rainfall for the first 12 days of the month is roughly 1.6 inches of rain.  What the region has ACTUALLY seen in those first 12 days, is anywhere from 2 to 4 times the average!  Poughkeepsie has seen 5.14 inches of rain so far in August… over 3 times the average so far in August.  Widespread 2 to 6 inch totals have been observed across the Hudson Valley… with some localized areas near the Tappan Zee Bridge nearing 8 inches!  As you head up into the Catskills, you’re looking at a general 4 to 6 inches of rain… mostly due to elevation enhanced rainfall totals.

But if you REALLY want to be in awe… check out the last 30 days of rainfall in the Hudson Valley…

Just a complete deluge of rainfall across a very large area over the last 30 days.  For a region where the average 30 day rainfall is somewhere around 4.4 inches… Poughkeepsie has seen 11.87 inches of rain!  And unlike many summer rainfalls, that is not an isolated amount.  Look at the widespread area of 10 to 15 inches of rain, represented by the bright purple colors.  That’s roughly 3 times the average rainfall over a 30 day period… enough to cause widespread flooding concerns.  Ultimately, it’s been so wet over the past 30 days… that any new rainfall immediately causes flood concerns to rise.  The ground is completely saturated across the region… so we really could use a break from the rainfall.

Sadly, it doesn’t seem to be in the cards.  Projections have additional dips in the jet stream over the eastern US, which will result in multiple chances of rain.

You can see, that the unsettled conditions don’t appear likely to go away any time soon.  We do expect a break for the middle of the week, but multiple fronts are projected to push through the region over the next 10 days… and those could bring additional rain with them.  The concern will be for heavy downpours, where heavy rainfall amounts occur in short periods of time.  That’s where the greatest threat for Flash Flooding will occur.  We’ll have to monitor the situation closely as we move forward.

As wet as this summer has been so far, it’s not unprecedented in the Hudson Valley… not by a long shot.  In 2011, in the matter of 10 days, we saw Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee drop 7.1 and 5.6 inches respectively in Poughkeepsie… for a combined 12.7 inches in just 10 days!  When we look at the 2 month period, we saw a combined 60 day rainfall of 20.73 inches for the month of August and September, which is roughly a FOOT above average!  So while this summer has certainly been soggy… it’s not unheard of.

Hopefully we can get some dry weather to move in over the coming week or two.  But if guidance is detecting the pattern correctly… it looks like there will be more rain in the offing, over the remainder of August.  Thanks for reading!

Monday Afternoon Shower Saga

Upper level low pressure systems are nothing but headaches from a forecasting perspective.  So the fact that an upper level low is right over top of us, is making for mischief.

2:30pm Radar Loop

You can see the rotation in the radar, with the slight counter clockwise flow of the light rain showers.  These showers were not detected by computer guidance last night, so our hopes for peeks of sunshine have faded behind the clouds and showers.  With the upper level low pressure stalled out almost right over top of us… these showers are not projected to go anywhere, any time soon.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Monday – 6am Tuesday

Here’s the radar simulation from mid day on Monday…. through sunrise on Tuesday.  Just a persistent, unsettled flow… with no jet stream to push the clouds and showers out of the region… it looks like this will be with us straight into Tuesday.  The upper level low pressure weakens and departs by Wednesday, but it looks like multiple dips in the jet stream will keep us with shots at afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the week.

We’ve got bunches of requests for information on the recent rainfall, other requests for our upcoming Winter Outlook, and even more questions related to ‘when will the humidity break?’.  We’ll try to have another post later that addresses some of that.

Until then… stay dry, and have a nice afternoon!

Sunday Discussion: Unsettled Again

Our unsettled weather pattern continues across the Hudson Valley, as we really cannot shake out of the low clouds and humidity.  The bright side, is that temperatures are cool, and we have a light easterly breeze taking the edge off the mugginess.

A weak upper level low pressure has stalled out over the Great Lakes and has cut off from the jet stream.  The result is what you see out your window yesterday and today.  Low clouds, patchy drizzle and light rain showers from time to time.  A very unsettled and unpredictable pattern in terms of pinpointing threats of rain showers.

That said, for the rest of Sunday, it does look like most of the valley remains mainly dry.  The clouds will hold firm, but we may see some breaks of sunshine and blue skies at times.  It looks like the threat of a spot shower will be minimal through sunset, but as we’ve said… in this pattern, you can’t totally rule out the threat of a shower or sprinkle.  All you need is the wind to shift back out of the southeast and a little moisture could find its way into the HV.  Then, this pattern will stick with us into the start of the work week, before slowly exiting the region toward mid-week.

So enjoy your Sunday!  We hope you don’t let the weather get in the way of your plans.

Saturday Discussion : Unsettled Waters Ahead

A very unsettled day shaping up across the region, as our SE flow is shaping up once again, which is a muggy, mild and unsettled air mass for our area. So it’s not much of a surprise that we have a building area of rain over the Hudson Valley to start our Saturday.

Morning Radar Loop: 9:45am

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire Hudson Valley, and we even have a Flash Flood Warning in Westchester County. That’s due to an extended period of heavy rain that has been inundating that area. That will pretty much be the story of the day, with periods of light rain scattered about the valley. From time to time, scattered downpours will move across parts of the area, and could lead to flash flood warnings, so we’ll try to pass along any advisories. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, with lightning and strong winds possible.

Futurecast Radar Saturday 7am – 1am Sunday

If you’re trying to time the rain today, good luck. This pattern is very unpredictable, in terms of the exact placement of rain showers, at any point in the day. If you have plans… it’s safe to expect rain showers possible through the day… with a localized downpour also possible.

Temperatures will be mild today, with cloudy skies and areas of rain keeping us in the 70s through the day. Dew points will also be around 70°, so it’s going to be humid as well.

We’ll try to share radar updates as the day progresses… but a very unsettled weekend lined up. Sunday looks a bit better than Saturday, with less rain showers likely. But we’ll hold onto clouds all day, with showers possible all day. It just appears right now, that the rainfall will be lighter on Sunday. But as we’ve stressed… this unpredictable pattern is subject to changes in the forecast details. We’ll try to keep you as far ahead of the action as possible. Have a great day

Friday Discussion : Nice Finish to the Week

Friday will be a rather nice day in general, giving us a decent finish to the work week.  We’ll see clouds mixing in with the sunshine, more and more as the day progresses.  That will give rise to a few spotty showers and even a thunderstorm in spots during the afternoon.  High temps will climb into the mid 80s for many of us, and dew points in the 60s will make for a rather sticky feel across the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : 1am to 9pm Friday

You’ll notice that there is very limited (virtually zero) activity until around 1pm, when a few spotty showers pop up in the southern Catskills and spread into the western HV.  That will give us the best chance on the western side of the Hudson Valley… but even there it’s maybe a 50/50 chance of a shower or downpour.  Most of us will remain dry on Friday, with a good deal of sun and clouds… so hopefully you can enjoy the afternoon.

Looking to the weekend and beyond…
We are seeing a very unsettled pattern shaping up once again… in a summer that has been full of unsettled weather (at least since early July).  Lots of clouds, and a moist SE flow will be in store for Saturday and Sunday.  This will give us multiple shots at showers and even some downpours… possibly some thunder in spots.  Timing these rain showers will be virtually impossible, at least more than 12 hours in advance.  The reason being there is no organized weather system to forecast… just a moist, unsettled flow across our area.  That will make planning your weekend activities frustrating… as you’ll need to check back multiple times, and likely need to hold off on cancelling an event, until 12 to 24 hours in advance… because the forecast details could change.

We’ll try to give you the best information… but our forecast has been generalized over the next 5 days, based on the general threats.  So while every day says “scattered showers”… we could see several dry periods within the period.  Similarly, we could see several periods over the next 5 days, where we have extended periods of rain.  We’ll just have to try and pinpoint when those periods will occur… which will be a challenge, right up until the day it occurs.

Have a great Friday!