Halfway through the month of October already, and in some ways it seems hard to believe. So lets take a look at what the first half of the month has looked like…
Locally in the Hudson Valley, temperatures have been fairly close to average… maybe a degree or two above normal. You can see that New England was a few degrees warmer, as the northeast US was right on the eastern edge of a trough. So with the first half of the month being quite close to average in terms of temperatures, lets take a look at the next week or so.
500mb (Jet Stream) Pattern : Sunday 10/18 – Saturday 10/24
When we look at the jet stream pattern over the next 7 days, a few things jump out at us. The first thing, is the ridge over the eastern US (designated by the orange colors). The higher than average pressures over the eastern US really lock in over the full 7 day period. Another thing you notice, is a tropical system over the Atlantic (blue colors)tries to push toward the east coast, but really does not get close to the eastern seaboard before curving out to sea. You’ll notice a trough (indicated by the blue colors over the upper mid-west), tries to push east, but is beaten back by the massive building ridge over the eastern US.
This kind of ridge over the eastern US traditionally translates into much above average temperatures, and rather dry conditions. So lets take a look at the projected temperatures over the next week…
This is quite a warm 7 day period, with temperatures over the period projecting around 9° above average. With the average highs for mid October is right around 60°, so that projects for afternoon highs near 70° over much of the coming week. These projected temperatures are consistent with what you would expect with the jet stream shown above. So the temperatures are consistent with what we would expect from the coming jet stream pattern… lets see if the projected rainfall/precipitation are also in line with expectations…
The average precipitation for the month of October is 4.41″ in Poughkeepsie. So if we estimate 4 weeks in a month, that’s over 1″ of precipitation per week on average. The computer guidance over the next 7 days is showing between 0.10″ and 0.25″ in the Hudson Valley… which is well below average. Looking at the graphic, you can see the heaviest moisture is northwest of our region, into the Great Lakes and Canada. So the implication being that the Hudson Valley will be on the warm and dry side over the next 7 days.
So in conclusion, we’ve got a warm and dry pattern ahead for the next week. The days may not be the nicest in terms of sunshine and blue skies, a few days could see a considerable number of clouds, even some patchy drizzle (which is how we get much of the rainfall you see on the above graphic). But some rather nice weather for mid October is likely headed our way through next weekend.
Looking beyond the next 7 days… it’s quite likely we see a complete flip of the pattern, as the deep trough that will be over the western US next week, likely shifts over the eastern US by month’s end.
So for as warm and dry as it could be over the Hudson Valley in the next week… we could see a cold and stormy end to the month of October, and start to November. Considering the time of year… we could even be seeing high elevation snow as a concern in that type of pattern. Something for weather lovers to keep their eye on. Have a great week!