Mid Week Discussion : More Rain Heading Our Way

After a sharp, crisp start to the month of December… things have moderated just a bit.  The pattern over North America has been more off the Pacific Ocean, instead of originating out of the arctic.  So after the first 10 days of December…

Things have moderated, and are closer to average for this time of year…

So clearly, the country (and Hudson Valley) are not as cold as we were a week or so ago.  In addition, when we look at the coming 10 days… we will very likely close out the month of December with temperatures that are above average for this time of year…

So by the time we get to the end of December, it’s likely that we’ll be near normal… to a bit above average for the month as a whole.  We’ll have to see how it plays out over the next several days.

Soaking Rainfall on the Way: Thursday Night – Friday

With a westerly jet stream off the Pacific Ocean… and no ridge out west to force the storm off the east coast… we’re going to see the storm track inland, up the Appalachians.  That will mean more rain for our area.

The low pressure will approach Thursday evening, and spread rain into the region near or just after sunset on Thursday.  Rain showers will be with us through the night Thursday, and into Friday morning.  Friday looks unsettled and mild… with temps well into the 50s.  Rainfall totals over 1 inch are surely possible, so stay tuned for more information as we get closer.

Those questioning about the potential for some light snow near Christmas… the odds are very much against it.  But there is a slight chance, that a weak disturbance could whiten the ground on Christmas Eve.  If we had to put a percentage on it… we’d say there is roughly a 10% to 20% chance at this point.  But we’ll see if things begin to look more favorable as we get closer.

For now… have a great Wednesday!

Sunday Discussion : Cold Rain Ends as Slushy Snow

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire region on Sunday.  Temperatures are tumbling into the 30s overnight Saturday, and by sunrise on Sunday, temperatures will be low to mid 30s.  At the same time, moisture will climb into the region from the south.  The result could be some icy spots with the onset of the rain.

Summary:
– Rain develops between 4am and 8am, mixing with freezing rain in spots
– Localized icy conditions possible, in traditional colder valleys
– Scattered rain showers through the afternoon
– Wet snow mixing in from 5pm through midnight
– Slick conditions possible into Monday AM

Futurecast Radar: 7am Sunday – 7am Monday

Looking at the futurecast radar, the Hudson Valley sees rain in the region by sunrise on Sunday.  There could be some sleet mixing in near sunrise, as the precipitation falls heavy for a time.  But you’ll notice that the rain showers begin to be spotty in nature.  So instead of a steady rain all afternoon… it appears likely to be cloudy with periods of light rain showers.  Some spotty icy spots are possible… but based on the temperatures should be in the mid 30s for most locations…

If this model is accurate… and it’s usually the best data in this time frame… widespread freezing rain does not appear to be a problem.  There definitely will be pockets of icy conditions, as you can see by the highlighted colder areas where temps could be below freezing.  But a cold rain appears to be the primary concern.  With that said… with a concern for freezing rain… you never want to let your guard down.  Be prepared for some slick spots in the morning on Sunday.

But as the day progresses, the low pressure will develop off shore, and we’ll see colder air begin to return into the atmosphere… changing rain showers to wet snow from NW to SE near and after sunset.  But once again, temperatures will be near to above freezing.  So snowfall accumulation will be difficult, with a lot melting on contact…

Indications are that a slushy coating to an inch in spots should about do it.  Now, if the cold air is a bit faster… and surface temperatures fall below freezing before the snow exits the area… an inch or two can’t be ruled out.  But guidance is suggesting that accumulations are primarily in higher elevations (above 800ft).  We’ll have to see how it unfolds.

Check for updates on Facebook through the day on Sunday.  Have a great day!

Saturday Discussion : Sunday Showers and Sneaky Ice

A large storm system over the southeast US has spread some light rain showers into the Hudson Valley over the last 24 hours.  But a strong high pressure over New England is battling back, and pushing the moisture back south of the region.  However, this resistance will be only temporary, as the moisture will begin advancing northward once again… late on Saturday night.  When the moisture returns, it appears it may do so in the form of ice for parts of the area.

Summary:

– 4am to 9am Sunday: light freezing rain and rain develops (mixed with sleet)
– Hudson Valley likely warms above freezing (33° to 37°) and wintry mix changes to cold rain for most
– Icy conditions possible Sunday morning, untreated surfaces could be icy and slick
– Icy conditions could persist into afternoon for northern areas and sheltered valleys.

You can see the large area of moisture to our southwest, that will begin pushing northward once again Saturday night.  At the same time, the flow around the high pressure in New England is pulling low level cold air down into the Hudson Valley.  So as the moisture and cold air collide over the Hudson Valley, we could see areas of freezing rain and sleet develop… in addition to the cold rain showers.  This could cause some icy spots by early morning on Sunday… especially as you go further north in the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

Futurecast Radar: 12am Sunday to 12am Monday

It appears that the icy conditions will be most widespread between 5am and 12pm on Sunday morning.  The region will see temperatures around 30° to 34° as the sun rises on Sunday.  With light rain showers falling into the cold air… the rain will likely freeze on untreated surfaces for a time.  But the valley should warm above freezing between 7am and 10am… and a plain, cold rain is likely for most of the valley.  The traditionally colder spots in the valleys of the Catskills and the upper Hudson Valley, could see the freezing rain and sleet linger, and persist into the afternoon.  The rain is likely to be light in general… lasting through the daylight hours on Sunday.

Possibly ending as Snow?…

As the system begins to push offshore and deepen… it could pull some colder air back into the Hudson Valley.  The result could be the rain/mix tapering off and ending as a period of wet snow Sunday night.  It does not look like a significant event, but it could provide some slushy coatings to half inch amounts… especially in the Catskills and northern HV.

The timing of the cold air rushing in behind the system, and the exit of the moisture… will be key.  It’s very possible that by the time the air is cold enough to support snow, that the moisture has exited the region… leaving us with no snow at all.  We’ll have to monitor the timing… and if it will have any impact on the Monday AM commute.

We’ll try to have updates as we go… especially on the Facebook page.  Thank you for your continued support.  You guys are AWESOME!

Friday Discussion : Clouds, Milder, and Evening Showers

After a wintry Thursday across the region, Friday will see temperatures moderate… but skies will remain gray.

Temps held around 30° all day on Thursday, with a persistent light snow shower around portions of the Hudson Valley.  Some places saw barely a dusting… others saw a half inch… and in the Catskills we had an inch or two in spots.  But as Friday unfolds, we’ll see winds shift out of the southeast.  That will bring milder air into the Hudson Valley, along with the threat of patchy drizzle and gray skies.  Afternoon highs in the mid 40s are likely for the majority of the valley.

But we’re tracking a storm system over the southeast US, that originally appeared likely to become a nor’easter… bringing significant rain for the Hudson Valley Friday night into Saturday.  Now, however… the system may remain suppressed to our south… meaning only some spotty showers and drizzle Friday evening in our region.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Friday through 12pm Saturday

You’ll notice that late on Friday afternoon, the rain showers are approaching the Hudson Valley.  At the same time, however… an area of high pressure to our north is pushing south.  That influence should help steer the moisture to our south and off the east coast on Friday night.  That means only a few light rain showers and areas of patchy drizzle in the Hudson Valley.  We’ll have to monitor the situation, to see if this holds true.

The storm doesn’t entirely exit the United States, however… and could make a 2nd approach into the Hudson Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We’ll have to keep our eye on this… because the big high pressure that keeps us mostly dry on Friday night… will generate a cold NE wind into the Hudson Valley.  That cold air at the surface could cause some icy spots on Sunday morning… we’ll have to watch it unfold on Friday and into Saturday.

A tricky 72 hours of weather for us to monitor.  But we hope for now, that you have a great Friday!  Thank you for continuing to support HVW.

Going above and beyond….
We have had numerous inquiries in the past couple months… asking how people can support the work we do.  For those who have asked how they can support us… you will find a “PayPal” button in the banner on the bottom right side of each web page.  We’ve had many requests asking for this information, and it truly blows us away!  We can’t thank you enough, and genuinely just appreciate everyone interacting with us, and spreading the word about what we do at HVW.  But for those who feel moved to financially support the work we do… this is the way you can do that.  Thank you so much!!

Thursday Discussion : Snow Foolin’

Happy Thursday, Hudson Valley!  Even when Mother Nature tries to bring a fresh coating of light snow to the Hudson Valley… something gets in the way to muck up the plans.  The light snow showers that have had everyone a buzz the last 24 hours, may end up being more bark than bite.

8am Radar Loop

The radar shows the light snow showers moving over the Hudson Valley at this hour, but if you look outside across the region, you won’t see more than a few flurries in most spots at this point.  The reason… is two fold.

1st… this system is not really much of a storm at all.  It’s a weak warm front that will move through the northeast today, with minimal moisture associated with it.  The atmospheric lift associated with the warm front was expected to generate the scattered light snow showers, but they were anticipated to be very light and scattered… just like you see on radar.  Even if this were the only issue… we were talking about a dusting to an inch or so, but…

2nd… there is considerable dry air at the mid levels of the atmosphere.  Go up in the air about 5000 feet, and the air is very dry.  That’s because of a STRONG high pressure that continues to hold ground over New England.

So really, we may see some scattered flurries and snow showers today.  A dusting to a half inch is possible in some places… but don’t be surprised if you don’t even get that in many locations.

So expect some cloudy and cold conditions, with scattered snow showers and flurries.  There could be a burst or two where snow comes down steady for a bit in locations… but most of us will just see a nuisance dusting in spots.

Tuesday Discussion : Cold Air Persists

After several years that saw a delayed start to the winter season, this year… we’ve wasted no time.  November was more than 3 degrees below average, and so far December is picking up right where we left off…

The cold of recent days will stick with us through the rest of the work week.  Winds will increase on Tuesday out of the SW, then gradually shift NW overnight.  Afternoon highs will climb into the mid and upper 30s across the valley… which is about 5 to 10 degrees below average.  But the wind chills will feel even colder, likely in the upper 20s to low 30s…

The cold will gradually moderate as the end of the week approaches… but don’t expect major improvements.  Instead of highs in the low to mid 30s… we will top out near or just above 40° by week’s end.  That puts us right around normal for this time of year.

But by Friday, we’ll see a storm system tracking toward the Ohio Valley, and it should spread some rain showers into the Hudson Valley and Catskills…

Futurecast : Friday into Sunday

A large system will push rain into the region Friday night and into Saturday… before being slow to exit on Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals over 1 inch are possible… and the Catskills could start as a brief period of sleet and freezing rain.  We’ll discuss this storm more as we get closer… but snow lovers will be frustrated once again.  We’ve had ample cold air over the past 3 to 4 weeks… but only generated one widespread snow event.  This storm will be a mild storm, and take a track that will bring rain to our region… not snow.

Have a great Tuesday!

Weekend Discussion : Wasted Early Season Cold

December has started right where November left off.

November saw Poughkeepsie at 3.3 degrees below average, and December has started off 1.4 degrees below average after the first week.  For our winter weather lovers, this would seem like great news.  With below average temperatures, usually come chances for snow.  But for now… that is not the case.

GFS Model Futurecast : Saturday December 8th – Monday December 17th

This is the eastern half of the United States over the next week or so.  You’ll notice that the major winter storm that was discussed earlier in the week, stays suppressed well to our south.  That’s because of the cold high pressure over the northeast right now.  It will block the storm’s path up the coast… and instead force it out to sea.

Behind that, the pattern quiets down for several days.  A reinforcing shot of chilly air on Wednesday could spread some snow showers into the Hudson Valley, but then a significant storm system develops over the southern plains in the middle of next week.  It seems the pattern will steer the storm off to our west, and into the Ohio Valley.  This is a warm storm for our area, and would mean rain… not snow, for the end of next week.  The timing on this would be around Saturday December 15th… but we’ll need to keep an eye on the pattern and how it unfolds.

So while we don’t see any major warm ups in the next week or two, it does look like a cool and dry pattern for the Hudson Valley.  The one or two storms we are tracking in the next 2 weeks, appear likely to fall in the form of rain… not snow.  But hang in there Hudson Valley snow lovers, despite how it may feel… winter hasn’t even started yet.  We’ve got a LONG way to go.

Friday Discussion: Winter is Here

A few localized dustings across the Hudson Valley overnight, caused a few slick spots early today. In the Catskills, they saw an inch or two in spots. Now, in the wake of the front… it feels every bit of winter outside. Temps will be pinned in the low to mid 30s through the day, with a light NW wind making it feel like the 20s. Tonight, we’ll see temps fall into the teens for many places. So bundle up if you’re heading out tonight.
 
This weather will be with us through the weekend. Temps in the 30s during the day… teens and low 20s overnight. A few flurries will be possible from time to time, but nothing that will cause any issues. The exception might be the Catskills, where a snow shower or two may cause a dusting to an inch or two in the highest elevations.
 
The nor’easter will miss to our south Sunday into Monday. The high pressure over the northeast is strong, and far enough south to suppress the system out to sea. Any snow from the system looks confined into the mountains of western VA and NC… but it could be a major event for those areas. For us… just a cold, dry weekend and start to next week. Bundle up… and have a great Friday!

Thursday Evening Update : Reinforcing Cold and Snow Showers

Another chilly night across the Hudson Valley, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s around the region.

A glance at the radar, and you can see we are tracking some snow flurries and snow showers around the region.We have some dry air, so some of this is evaporating before reaching the ground.These are associated with a reinforcing cold front, that will bring slightly colder air into our region starting on Friday.

For tonight, expect scattered flurries and possible spotty snow showers.  These will be most numerous in the Catskills… where a dusting might be found.  A few slick spots can’t be ruled out… but in general, don’t worry if you encounter a snow shower or flurry… it should taper off quickly… with minimal if any affect.

Wednesday Discussion : Cold… not much else to say

Over the past few weeks, Mother Nature has established that we’re going to get off to a fast start with wintry weather.  We’ve only had 1 noteable snowstorm… but it certainly was ‘noteable’, dropping nearly a foot of snow in parts of the area.  But what we have had a lot of … is cold air.

Temperatures are down, about 3 or 4 degrees below average over the past 4 weeks, and showing no sign of change.  Temps all week are topping out in the 30s… a solid 5 to 10 degrees below average.  It’s going to feel like the middle of winter straight into the weekend, so make sure you’re planning for temperatures more typical of January.  Highs in the low to mid 30s… lows in the teens to low 20s.

But at least it’s dry… so the ground can dry out a bit.  Stay warm.