Monday Discussion: Fall is Upon Us

Cold week ahead for the region with highs struggling out of the 40’s most days although we may squeeze some low 50’s in some locations. Overall a tranquil work week with not much to discuss, that will give us lots of time to monitor the threat of a large Nor Easter that looks to impact the region for the weekend.

The remains of Pacific Hurricane Willa looks to merge with a deep trough over the NE, this will result in a rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast. The result may bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. Thanks to the deep trough in place there is some cold air available this may allow a wintry aspect to this storm as well, as of now this looks limited to the higher elevations. Either way, lots to track and we will be posting frequent updates on this storm threat.

Keep in mind that this is a very popular timeframe for massive coastal storms, lingering summer air masses clashing with advancing colder air masses with ocean surface temps still ripe for added fuel.

Stay warm friends.

Saturday Discussion: Gray Day Before the Chill

Clouds, drizzle and spotty showers will be the story for our Saturday.  We have a SW flow out ahead of an arctic cold front approaching from the Great Lakes.  That will mean gray skies… possibly some peeks of afternoon sun… and areas of drizzle, even a spot shower.  Any rain that does fall, won’t be especially heavy, with the late day scattered showers likely being the heaviest.  Temps will push Into the upper 50s for highs today, possibly breaking 60 degrees in spots.

Big changes on the way for Sunday, as the arctic front pushes through tonight, and provides a biting chill for Sunday.  Highs only into the mid 40s… even upper 30s in the Catskills.  In addition, some scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in the higher elevations… primarily the Catskills.

So our weekend will start out seasonably cool and mild… and end with a winter preview.  Hope your Saturday is a great one!!

Wednesday Discussion : Hard Freeze Likely Tonight

** FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT **
…FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY…

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday. The Freeze Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATION… Entire Hudson Valley (except Rockland & Westchester counties)

* TEMPERATURES…In the lower 30s.

* TIMING…4 am to 9 am Thursday.

* IMPACTS…Freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

A Freeze Warning means below freezing temperatures are imminentor highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

— HVW Commentary —
Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s overnight, with a biting NW wind. That will create wind chills in the low to mid 20s… even some wind chill values in the TEENS in the Catskills.

This will bring the growing season to an end across the majority of the valley. The reason northern, high elevation parts of the valley are not under an advisory (Delaware, Sullivan, W. Ulster & Greene, E. Dutchess & Columbia counties)… is because those locations have already experienced a freeze previously.

Tuesday Discussion : Winter Chill on the Horizon

With the passage of the cold front, autumn’s chill has settled back into the valley.  We had a brief warmup overnight, before the front pushed through.  Temps briefly climbed into the 60s before falling back into the 40s before sunrise.

For the rest of the day on Tuesday, we’ll have sunshine mixing with fair weather clouds, and light breeze.  Temps Tuesday afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 50s (about 5°) below average for this time of year.  Tonight… temps will fall into the upper 30s and low 40s around the region, with a light SW wind… but mostly clear skies.

That brings us to Wednesday, and the approaching of an arctic cold front.  Now… this time of year, an arctic front doesn’t mean the same thing it means in December and January… but it’s still going to pack a biting punch.  The front will drop south during the day on Wednesday, and increase winds out of the west/northwest during the afternoon.  Winds 10 to 20mph will gust upward of 30mph at times on Wednesday… and a spot rain shower can’t be ruled out.  In the Catskills… that could transition to snow showers, if the cold air moves in fast enough.

Behind the front, we’ll have a strong NW wind at 10 to 15mph, gusting over 20mph into Wednesday night.  Temps will plunge through the 30s… and into the upper 20s in some places.

This map shows the projected low temperatures Wednesday night… but this doesn’t factor in the 10 to 15mph wind, that will gust even higher at times.  That will generate wind chills in the mid 20s… and even some low 20s in the Catskills.  Surely the coldest air of the season so far.  Frost may not be a major concern due to the winds… but a hard freeze may still be an issue.  We’ll have to monitor the situation.

The cold will last through Thursday… when afternoon highs won’t get out of the 40s in the afternoon!  But as the weekend approaches, we’ll begin to see temperatures slowly climbing back toward average levels.  The change of seasons is upon us, Hudson Valley.  Make sure you’re bundled accordingly.  Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Damp, Cool and Gray

A warm front is pushing into the Hudson Valley this morning, and it’s spreading some light rain showers into the HV. 

Expect scattered light rain showers and drizzle at times through the morning, and into the afternoon.  Temps are quite raw right now… in the 40s for the most part.  Temps will gradually rise into the 50s and near 60 by later today.

We won’t see the sun today, but sun will be with us (mixed with clouds) through the rest of the week, along with cool temps in the 50s for highs.  Have a great Monday! 

Sunday Discussion : Fall Finally Arrives

It may have taken a while, but fall weather has finally arrived in the Hudson Valley.  Saturday night was the chilliest night of the season thus far, with many areas in the valley seeing lows in the mid to upper 30s.  Believe it or not, that’s not too cold for this time of year.  The average low in Poughkeepsie for today is 39°.  So it’s the warmth we’ve been seeing, that makes us feel like this fall weather is extra chilly.

As we move forward, we’ll see some showers into the region on Monday.  Nothing too heavy, but just a damp feel to the day.  A cold front will clear us out on Tuesday, and bring the fall chill back into the region.  Then a reinforcing cold front swings through on Wednesday, and will bring a real chill to the region.  Lows on Wednesday night will fall into the low and mid 30s… possibly even some upper 20s.  Then highs on Thursday will struggle to hit 50°.  So prepare for some true Fall weather this coming week.

Enjoy your Sunday afternoon!

Summer Rainfall Recap : Super Soaker 2018

Rain… it was the theme of the summer of 2018.  At times, the rain fell lightly… at other times it fell at torrential rates.  But it seems as if it was a day that ended in “Y”, it was raining.  In the 92 days from the start of July through the end of September… 40 of those days had measurable rainfall in Poughkeepsie.  That’s 43.5% of the time that it was raining… so basically every other day it rained in the Hudson Valley.

We’ve had MANY questions about the rainfall this summer, and how it compares to average… as well as if this summer was the wettest ever.  In an attempt to answer this question, we’ve looked at the 3 month period from July 1st through September 30th.  So lets take a look at September first… how much rain fell in the month of September across the Hudson Valley:

September was a very soggy month, but not record breaking by any stretch.  Part of the problem may be that by the time we reached September, we were already rain weary.  With roughly 150% of average rainfall in September, it was surely more than we’re used to… but within reason.  So now, lets look at August and September combined…

Now the water is rising above our ankles.  In an average summer, Poughkeepsie would see roughly 8.5 inches of rain between the months of August and September.  But in 2018, we saw nearly double that… at 14.5 inches of rainfall.  This made sure the grass was always green, and growing like the weed that it is.  The problem being, it was always raining… so when the heck were we supposed to cut the grass?

The Big Picture (July-August-September)

So now, lets look at the entire summer period… from July, through August, and into September.  We’re going to look at 3 graphics:  Total Rainfall, Percent of Average, and Rainfall Amounts Compared to Normal.  Brace yourselves, so you’re not washed away in the monsoon…

Hopefully you’re still with us, and haven’t been washed downstream.  An incredible amount of water fell across the region over the summer.  Roughly 1.5 to 2.0 times the average rainfall on average across the Hudson Valley… and in the Catskills, 2 to 3 times the average rainfall.  Over 20 inches of rain in many areas… and nearly 30 inches of rain in the Catskills!  Truly incredible.

Record Breaking Rainfall?

One of the most frequent questions, has been, “Is this the wettest summer ever?”.  We always say that our ‘weather memory’ is short, and that most times when you feel like “this is the worst its ever been”… when you research the data, you find that may not be the case.  We need to go back only to 2011 to find a comparable 3 month period across the Hudson Valley…

Now… this is not to say 2018 isn’t extreme… quite the contrary.  2011 was an extreme summer across the region, in many cases the worst on record.  In a matter of 2 to 3 weeks, Tropical Storm Irene and Tropical Storm Lee inundated the region with flooding rainfall.  While 2011 saw roughly 1.5 inches more rainfall… 2018 was more consistently wet… with all 3 months seeing 6 or more inches of rainfall.  The rainfall we saw in 2018 was better… because it was spread over a longer period of time, making for less flash flooding incidents than what we saw in 2011.  But any way you slice it… both summers were just amazing in terms of rainfall.

So there you have it… 2018 was not the wettest summer on record, but it certainly was up there.  Make no mistake, the rainfall we saw this year was extreme when compared to average.  We have seen summers this wet in the past… but very, very few can compare to the super saturated summer of 2018.

Flash Flood Watch : Thursday Front Approaches

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for all counties with the exception of Delaware and Sullivan Counties, an incoming cold front will interact with tropical moisture from what will then be tropical storm Michael. While the bulk of the moisture us expected to pass to our south, there will be enough interaction to enhance the impacts of the cold front. This cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season since last spring, and is expected to be the beginning of a longer term trough pattern across our region that will bring more seasonal to even at time below average temps through the next 10 days. 

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

THURSDAY NIGHT…

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the following counties: Litchfield, Berkshire, Bennington, Windham, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer and Ulster.

* From Thursday morning through late Thursday night

* Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms some with locally heavy downpours will move across the area Thursday into Thursday night ahead of approaching cold front as tropical moisture moves into the region. A widespread 1 to 2 inches rainfall is expected, however rainfall rates as high as up to an inch an hour are possible.

* Flash flooding is possible especially in low lying and poor drainage areas as well as creeks, brooks, and small streams as water levels are running above normal.

——————————————————

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH *

* for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night

* A cold front will move across the region Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, interacting with tropical moisture, resulting in the threat of heavy rainfall.

* Showers, and possible thunderstorms, will develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night, resulting in moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to average between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Any heavy rainfall that occurs within a 1-3 hour window may result in flash flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall across portions of New York City, Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

Wednesday Outlook : Sun Fighting Through

This weather pattern continues to be a beast to forecast.  All guidance suggested that today would be mainly cloudy and muggy… similar to Tuesday.  However, at least in parts of the Mid Hudson Valley, the fog has burned off and the clouds have lifted… leaving us with a mix of sunshine and clouds.  This looks as if it could continue to expand across the valley… but don’t be surprised if the clouds do thicken and return across parts of the region.

Temperatures will be very warm, regardless of the sky conditions.  Afternoon highs should climb into the upper 70s and low 80s across the Hudson Valley, that’s 10 to 15 degrees above average.  Our warm SW flow out ahead of an approaching cold front… the same cold front that will keep us shielded from Hurricane Michael’s remnants in the coming days.  We will have showers and downpours, even a few thunderstorms to deal with on Thursday… but the cooler air behind the front will force Hurricane Michael off the coast of Virginia on Friday… keeping us clear of the heavy rain and gusty winds.

Updates on Hurricane Michael are available all over the internet, but here’s the latest update as of 8am:

Tuesday Discussion : Stalled Fronts and Looming Gloom

Many across the Hudson Valley are growing weary of this persistently gray weather pattern.  Others are enjoying the cool and damp weather.  Regardless of your opinion, the weather pattern appears reluctant to change… so expect more of the same…

A stalled out low level front over the Mid Atlantic, and it’s creating enough instability to create a persistent low cloud deck, with areas of fog and drizzle.  It’s been present in various forms, at various times, over the last couple weeks now.  The result has been… and continues to be, the weather we are currently seeing.

So expect lots of low clouds, with areas of patchy fog and drizzle.  Temperatures will be pinned in the 60s for much of the day, but will struggle to climb into the low 70s across the region.  Peeks of sun will be possible north of I-84, with the chances best as you go further and further north.  Where the sun breaks through… or the skies brighten… we will see temps climb into the 70s.

This lasts until Thursday, until the next frontal boundary approaches with the remnants of Hurricane Michael being pulled into it.  We’ll have to monitor how the two features interact… and just how far north the heavy rain will reach.  Right now… it does appear that periods of rain are possible… if not likely on Thursday.  We’ll have more information as we get closer.