Wednesday Discussion : Cool Sunshine

A cool air mass for mid May is in place over the northeast, which is giving us nice but cool weather this week.

Lots of sunshine and blue skies are expected across the Hudson Valley for our Wednesday.  A northwest breeze will continue to funnel cooler than average temperatures into the Hudson Valley.  Average highs this time of year are right around 70°.  Highs on Tuesday were roughly 10 degrees below average, closer to 60°.  On Wednesday, we’ll do a little better, climbing into the mid 60s for many parts of the valley.  But that is still about 5 degrees below average.  But with high pressure in control over the eastern US, the Hudson Valley will be mostly sunny and dry for the next couple days.

As we move through the rest of the week, we’ll see temperatures slowly increase day over day.  By Friday we should be near 70°, and the weekend is looking potentially gorgeous with highs near or a degree or two above 70° Saturday and Sunday.  Another plus… in a year that feels defined by strong winds… the wind over the coming 4 or 5 days, the winds will be virtually a non-factor.  Winds between 0 and 5 miles per hour will be common, as we settle in under the high pressure.  One of the questions for the weekend, will be due to the rather calm winds, will low clouds develop and provide a few spot showers at times this weekend.  In general, we think the weekend looks dry and beautiful… but a stray shower or two may be something to contend with this weekend.  We’ll monitor it as we go through the week.

Another question that many people likely have has to do with drought conditions and recent rainfall.  In that department, we have some good news…

Rainfall over the past weekend was pretty close to what was expected.  A general 7 tenths to 1 inch of rain fell around the region.  With the region in an abnormally dry condition at the beginning of May, this steady light to moderate rain went a long way to helping the situation.  In looking at the last 60 days, the Hudson Valley and Catskills are increasingly close to average in terms of rainfall… at least in the range of acceptability.  The next 7 days look rather dry across the region, due to high pressure parked over the eastern US.  So getting that soaking rainfall over the weekend was definitely a big boost.

Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Cold Morning Lows

* WHERE…Western Greene and Western Ulster Counties as well as Sullivan and Delaware Counties
* WHAT…Temperatures as low as 35 degrees will result in frost
* WHEN…From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
left uncovered.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Cover or bring in sensitive outdoor
*** HVW Commentary ***
The majority of the valley should be fine Tuesday morning, likely in the upper 30s to low 40s. The Catskills will be a few degree cooler… in the 32° to 37°.
Looking forward to the middle of the week… we will have to monitor Tue night/Wed AM lows & Wed night/Thu AM lows across the mid and northern HV. We could see morning lows fall into the mid and upper 30s in more parts of the region… so we may have some more frost advisories in the coming days.

Monday Discussion : Drying Out, but Cool

The storm will exit by dawn on Monday, and we’ll see clouds gradually exit the region through the day Monday.

Mostly cloudy skies during the morning hours will mix with increasing breaks of sun for the afternoon hours.  Our breeze will be out of the northwest, giving us a cool flow for early May.  Morning temps in the mid 40s at sunrise will slowly climb into the upper 50s for the afternoon, and likely topping out around or just above 60° for a high.   The average high this time of year is around 70°, so despite the improving conditions, we’ll still be about 10° below average on Monday.

As we move through the week, we’ll see an upper level trough dig into the eastern US.  This will hold chilly temperatures in place through mid week.  That means below average temperatures for the region until the 2nd half of the week, when we should get closer to average for this time of year.

We hope everyone’s week gets off to a great start.  For the forecast details :

Sunday Discussion : AM Sun, Late Day Showers

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms of the Hudson Valley!  We’re going to try to pull out a day, but showers will be advancing on the region all afternoon.

Sunshine will be with us to start our Mother’s Day across the Hudson Valley, with mostly sunny skies.  But as the morning progresses, we’ll have increasing cloudiness into the early afternoon hours.  An approaching low pressure from the Ohio Valley will spread rain eastward by mid to late afternoon on Sunday.  So light rain is likely to develop from west to east across the region between 2pm and 5pm.  So the first 2/3 of our Mother’s Day looks fairly nice, with temperatures climbing into the low and mid 60s out ahead of the rain.  However clouds and showers will move into the region during the mid to late afternoon hours… bringing some much needed rain to the region.  Anyone with Mother’s Day plans may need to take things indoors after 3pm.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Sunday to 6am Monday

The front edge of the rain is likely to reach the western half of the Hudson Valley between 3 and 4pm… with the entire region seeing the rain by 5pm.  From there the light rain is likely to become a steady, soaking rainfall, that lasts through the night time hours.  The air mass is rather chilly… and you can see some high elevation wet snow showing up in the highest peaks of the Catskills.  But temperatures through the night Sunday night are expected to be in the low to mid 40s.  Guidance suggests that the rain should exit the Hudson Valley around sunrise on Monday, drying out and becoming breezy behind the departing storm system.

Projected Total Rainfall by Monday morning

The heaviest rain is likely off to our west in Pennsylvania, where up to 2 inches is possible.  Across the Hudson Valley, a general 0.5″ to 1.0″ of rainfall seems likely.   This is a great help, considering the soil is rather dry across the region.  That’s because much of the Mid Hudson Valley has only seen about 65% of normal rainfall.

So with a little luck the rainfall will hold off as long as possible on Mother’s Day, so that everyone can enjoy their day to the maximum extent… before the rain showers roll in.  No matter how it unfolds, we hope everyone has a wonderful Sunday, a Magical Mother’s Day, and a great end to the weekend!

Saturday Discussion : Drizzly and Damp

A weak trough will swing into the Hudson Valley on Saturday, and with it will come low clouds, drizzle, and chilly temps.

Cloudy skies will be with us at sunrise, and areas of steady drizzle will develop early in morning and continue into the afternoon hours.  A few steadier showers could develop toward mid day, depending on the amount of moisture that moves into the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 6pm Saturday

Most guidance has very light rainfall, around a tenth of an inch total… which would suggest a steady light drizzle for much of the region.  But a few steadier rain showers are possible, especially heading into the Catskills and northern Hudson Valley.  The showers and drizzle should taper off around sunset, before skies slowly clear later Saturday night.  The low clouds and drizzle will keep temperatures down in the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the daylight hours, promising a chilly and raw feel to the air.  Make sure you have a coat and some rain gear before heading outside on Saturday.

Mother’s Day is looking decent for our Sunday.  The day likely starts with a fair amount of sunshine and temps in the low 40s.  Temps should climb near 60° with sunshine fading behind afternoon clouds.  A few showers are possible by late in the day… but most of the day on Sunday looks nice.  Some welcome news for Mother’s Day plans.

We hope everyone has a great start to the weekend, even with the low clouds and wet weather.

Friday Afternoon Discussion : Unsettled Weather on the Way

Quite a nice end to the work week around the Hudson Valley. We’ve got sunshine mixing with increasing high clouds, as our next storm system approaches from the west.
Temperatures at the 1pm hour are in the low to mid 60s in the valley, with upper 50s found in the Catskills. Temps should continue to climb a bit more this afternoon, topping out in the mid to upper 60s… around 60° in the Catskills.
We’ll remain dry this afternoon, despite the radar showing rain showers off to our west in central PA and central NY. There is enough high pressure over New England to keep the moisture from advancing east until very late tonight.
Futurecast Radar : Saturday 6am to 6pm
Scattered rain showers and patchy drizzle will overspread the region early on Saturday. The rainfall does not look particularly heavy, rather more of a steady light drizzle with scattered rain showers at times. Precipitation amounts are expected to be under 0.20″ of rain, with the highest totals likely in the Catskills. The low clouds and drizzle, with scattered rain showers will keep temperatures pinned down in the upper 40s and low 50s on Saturday, so we’ll have a chilly and raw day to start our weekend.
Conditions improve Saturday night, with clouds exiting the region by Sunday morning. Mother’s Day morning looks likely to get off to a beautiful start, with mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase through the day on Sunday out ahead of the next storm system, but the rain likely holds off until near sunset Sunday. Afternoon highs should climb around 60° on Mother’s Day. If the current data holds true… our Mother’s Day would contain decent but cool weather. We’ll keep our eyes on that to see how it develops.
We hope your weekend gets off to a great start! TGIF!

Wednesday Discussion : Rain on the Way

Some much needed rainfall is on its way to the Hudson Valley this afternoon.
11am Radar Loop
The radar loop shows a large batch of rainfall moving NE. Light rain showers and drizzle are already making their way into the region. A steadier rain with embedded areas of heavy rain is back in central PA, and all of that is heading our way. While this may put a damper on Cinco de Mayo festivities, with rainfall being about 20% to 30% below average for the year so far… this is a very welcome sight. Rainfall amounts of 0.25″ to 0.75″ are expected, depending on the track of the embedded areas of heavier rain. Temps this afternoon will be in the 50s. Rain showers will taper off around sunset, and skies will clear overnight, and give us a cool but partly cloudy Thursday across the region.
Make sure you have your rain gear ready for this afternoon, as periods of rain will definitely be a factor. Have a nice afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Splitting the Storms

Tuesday will be a decent day, especially when you consider that we’ll be squeezed in between Monday night’s rain, and Tuesday night / Wednesday morning’s rain.

Clouds will mix with increasing sunshine as we move through the day.  Depending on how long the clouds linger, will determine how warm we get in the Hudson Valley.  You can see on the weather map, how areas to our south will climb near 80°, while areas just to our northeast will struggle near 60°.  So we expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70° in the Hudson Valley, but if we get a little more sunshine, we could climb into the low 70s Tuesday afternoon.

Futurecast Radar : 8pm Tue – 8pm Wed

However, there is more rain on the way.  Another batch of showers is likely to develop and reach the Hudson Valley near evening on Tuesday.  Then we expect to see scattered showers through the night Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The low pressure appears likely to push through the region by mid day on Wednesday, so odds are that much of Wednesday will be unsettled with showers as well.

For complete forecast details be sure to check out the main page :  Have a great Tuesday!

Sunday Discussion : Warm, Clouds & Sun

Sunday has the potential to be beautiful… but also has the potential for a few damp spots

The day will start with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Temps will quickly climb through the 50s and 60s, and will be in the low 70s by noon.  A warm SW flow on the back side of an upper level high pressure over the east coast.  But there will be a bit of atmospheric instability from the remnants of a frontal boundary that extends into the Great Lakes.  That has the potential to throw a few extra clouds and even a few spotty rain showers into our area Sunday afternoon.  But afternoon temperatures have the potential to surge into the mid and upper 70s.  A fine spring day could be interrupted by a brief rain shower… but otherwise our Sunday looks quite nice.

Futurecast Radar : 8am to 6pm Sunday

You can see that the daytime simulated radar looks quiet, with the exception of a few spotty rain showers the quickly zip through the Hudson Valley.  These showers would be nothing more than quick increasing clouds… a few minutes of light rain showers… followed by drying conditions and increasing sunshine.  Hopefully it plays out that way, because that would give us a beautiful Sunday.

Enjoy your Sunday!

Friday Discussion : Strong Winds Return

A humid and unsettled Thursday will transition into a windy and cooler Friday afternoon.

A wind advisory is in effect for the entire Hudson Valley on Friday, as strong NW winds wrap in behind our departing storm system.  NW winds at 10 to 20mph will gust over 35mph at times… possibly as high as 50mph in the higher hill towns.  Afternoon temps on Friday should hit the low 60s early, before falling during the late afternoon.  An isolated shower can’t be ruled out wrapping in from the lakes as well.

The winds will be with us into Friday night and will be with us into Saturday… but after dark on Friday the winds will gradually ease up.  So while Saturday will be blustery, it won’t be as windy as Friday.  Then temps will climb into the low 60s on Saturday, and likely near 70° on Sunday.

A very blustery Friday in store for the region, make sure you plan appropriately.  Have a great day!