Weekly Outlook : October 18th – October 24th

Halfway through the month of October already, and in some ways it seems hard to believe.  So lets take a look at what the first half of the month has looked like…

Locally in the Hudson Valley, temperatures have been fairly close to average… maybe a degree or two above normal.  You can see that New England was a few degrees warmer, as the northeast US was right on the eastern edge of a trough.  So with the first half of the month being quite close to average in terms of temperatures, lets take a look at the next week or so.

500mb (Jet Stream) Pattern : Sunday 10/18 – Saturday 10/24

When we look at the jet stream pattern over the next 7 days, a few things jump out at us.  The first thing, is the ridge over the eastern US (designated by the orange colors).  The higher than average pressures over the eastern US really lock in over the full 7 day period.  Another thing you notice, is a tropical system over the Atlantic (blue colors)tries to push toward the east coast, but really does not get close to the eastern seaboard before curving out to sea.  You’ll notice a trough (indicated by the blue colors over the upper mid-west), tries to push east, but is beaten back by the massive building ridge over the eastern US.

This kind of ridge over the eastern US traditionally translates into much above average temperatures, and rather dry conditions.  So lets take a look at the projected temperatures over the next week…

This is quite a warm 7 day period, with temperatures over the period projecting around 9° above average.  With the average highs for mid October is right around 60°, so that projects for afternoon highs near 70° over much of the coming week.  These projected temperatures are consistent with what you would expect with the jet stream shown above.  So the temperatures are consistent with what we would expect from the coming jet stream pattern… lets see if the projected rainfall/precipitation are also in line with expectations…

The average precipitation for the month of October is 4.41″ in Poughkeepsie.  So if we estimate 4 weeks in a month, that’s over 1″ of precipitation per week on average.  The computer guidance over the next 7 days is showing between 0.10″ and 0.25″ in the Hudson Valley… which is well below average.  Looking at the graphic, you can see the heaviest moisture is northwest of our region, into the Great Lakes and Canada.  So the implication being that the Hudson Valley will be on the warm and dry side over the next 7 days.

So in conclusion, we’ve got a warm and dry pattern ahead for the next week.  The days may not be the nicest in terms of sunshine and blue skies, a few days could see a considerable number of clouds, even some patchy drizzle (which is how we get much of the rainfall you see on the above graphic).  But some rather nice weather for mid October is likely headed our way through next weekend.

Looking beyond the next 7 days… it’s quite likely we see a complete flip of the pattern, as the deep trough that will be over the western US next week, likely shifts over the eastern US by month’s end.

So for as warm and dry as it could be over the Hudson Valley in the next week… we could see a cold and stormy end to the month of October, and start to November.  Considering the time of year… we could even be seeing high elevation snow as a concern in that type of pattern.  Something for weather lovers to keep their eye on.  Have a great week!

Thursday Discussion : Warm October Sunshine

A beautiful mid October day lined up for the Hudson Valley! Mostly sunny skies and a warm SW wind will push afternoon highs into the low 70s. Anyone with outdoor plans today will be very happy. An approaching frontal system will push clouds into the region tonight, and lingering into Friday. Rain showers will be possible tonight… and again late on Friday, as some energy moves northward along the frontal boundary. Rain showers are likely Friday night, but taper off Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon should see some breaks of sun, and a northwest breeze. Complete details on the 5 day are on the website. We hope everyone has a wonderful Thursday!

Tuesday Discussion : Soggy and Cool

Radar Loop : 7:30am – 10am

Conditions remain damp and unsettled around the Hudson Valley this morning. You can see from this radar loop, that the cold front is approaching from the west. The showers associated with the front itself, are breaking up a bit as it approaches from the west. Out ahead of it, in the Hudson Valley, we have some showers moving from south to north. The showers will be scattered through mid day, before tapering off during the early afternoon hours from SW to NE. A few breaks of sunshine are possible before sunset, especially in the western HV. Rainfall amounts today should be rather light, but a few localized areas of steadier rain are possible… but the radar doesn’t lie, the showers are disorganized, and mostly light. Temps around the region should hold in the 50s today, with winds out of the north/northeast. Stay dry, and have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Damp and Raw

Monday will see a late fall feel move into the Hudson Valley, as the remnants of Hurricane Delta reach the east coast.  Moisture and low pressure associated with what once was Hurricane Delta, has merged with a trough along the east coast.  The end result is a weak nor’easter along the east coast.

Futurecast Radar : Monday 2am – Tuesday 8am

Latest guidance has seen some details change… while the main theme remains the same.  Monday will be cloudy and cold, with periods of light to moderate rain showers.  Highs will struggle into the low 50s, with a strong ENE wind.  But you can see on the simulated radar, that the low pressure is weak, and rally stalls out over Delaware.  That’s in part to a strong high pressure over SE Canada.  That’s high pressure is going to allow the dry air to hold on for longer over the northeast, and prevent the steadiest rains from moving far north Sunday night and Monday morning.  We’ll still see rain showers… but instead of widespread 1″ to 1.5″ amounts… it seems like 0.5″ will be much more common.

The cold front arrives toward the end of the simulated radar, and that will draw more shower activity into the northeast.  Rain showers are likely through Monday night, with temps holding in the upper 40s and low 50s.  Latest guidance also shows that the rain shower threat could hold on into the mid and late morning on Tuesday… still tapering off by mid day, but the Tuesday morning commute could still feature wet roads.

This is one of those storms where we’re very glad it’s not winter.  The devil is in the details in terms of moisture amounts, so if this was January… it could have been one of those storms where a snow forecast for 6 to 10 inches turned into 3 to 5 inches at the last minute.  When it’s October, and its just rain…. the theme stays the same, even if we only see half of the expected precipitation.  Lets hope that this theme doesn’t extend into the winter.

Stay warm, stay dry… and have a great Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Remnants of Delta Overnight

As the seasons continue to change, and late summer becomes fall, we begin to see more interesting weather events around the Hudson Valley.  The remnants of Hurricane Delta have phased into an east coast trough, and will provide our area with what is essentially “Nor’easter Delta”.  Now, this storm isn’t named, and has no tropical characteristics… but the moisture and energy left over from what was Hurricane Delta, will give us a winter like nor’easter… just with rain instead of snow.

Futurecast Radar : Sunday 8pm – Tuesday 2pm.

This simulated radar of the northeast shows the expected progress from Sunday night through lunch time Tuesday.  The bulk of the rain will come through between midnight tonight and 4pm on Monday afternoon.  Then we’ll have the threat for scattered rain showers through the afternoon and evening on Monday, as the cold front approaches from the west.  The cold front could touch off more showers, possibly even a thunderstorm, near sunrise on Tuesday… before pushing east of the Hudson Valley by mid morning on Tuesday.

As with a nor’easter, we’ll have blustery and raw conditions on Monday.  Winds out of the east/northeast at 5 to 15mph will combine with chilly temperatures holding in the upper 40s to low 50s.  This will make for a raw feel more typical of early spring or late fall.  You’re going to want rain gear and a heavy coat if going out and about on Monday.  In terms of rainfall amounts, a good soaking rain is likely for much of the region.

Areas south of I-84 have the best chance to see over 1″ of rain.  Latest guidance is hinting that these rainfall amounts might be a little high, and that the rainfall might not be quite as heavy as what we see above.  But either way, a soaking rain of 0.50 to 1.0 inches appears likely for much of the Hudson Valley.  Everything should exit the region Tuesday morning… possibly lingering a little later in the Catskills.  But by Tuesday afternoon, breaks of sun are expected in the area once more.

We’ll keep our eye on the situation as it develops, but no major surprises expected with this system.  Simply a reminder that fall is here, and a nor’easter with blustery and raw conditions will kick off our work week.  Have a great Sunday afternoon and evening!

Hurricane Delta Targets Louisiana

It’s been a long and exhaustive hurricane season.  You need only look to the fact that we’ve run out of letters in the alphabet, and have moved onto Greek letters.  Hurricane Delta is a category 3 ‘major’ hurricane, it will push northward on Friday, and should make landfall in SW Louisiana by sunset on Friday.  Very strong onshore winds will pile up water along the coast, causing a storm surge of 10 feet or more in many areas east of the landfall.  This futurecast of the wind gusts  shows the power that Hurricane Delta will bring…

SW Louisiana will take another thrashing by this hurricane, causing considerable damage to property.  Hopefully residents of that area will take heed, and push inland, away from the storm surge.  Hopefully this is the last time we have to talk about a potential hurricane landfall in the year 2020.

Looking Locally…

The weather in the Hudson Valley looks outstanding Friday and Saturday.  Sunshine and fair weather clouds both days, with highs on Friday into the mid and upper 60s… followed by highs into the mid and upper 70s on Saturday.  Our next chance of widespread rain, will come late on Sunday.  As luck would have it, the remnants of Hurricane Delta will push northeastward on Saturday and Sunday, likely spreading rain showers into our area by Sunday evening and Monday.

For now, we hope everyone has a safe Friday, and wonderful start to their weekend.

Wednesday Discussion : Becoming Blustery

A rather quiet start to our Wednesday across the valley, in advance of an approaching cold front and the gusty winds that will follow.  This futurecast radar loop shows the scattered shower, and even a few spotty thunderstorms, that will spread across the Hudson Valley during the afternoon hours.

Futurecast Radar Loop : 8am Wed thru 2am Thu

Timing:
– Scattered showers north of I-84 between 11am and 2pm
– Scattered showers and thundershowers possible 2pm to 7pm
– Gusty winds increasing after 2pm
– Wind gusts over 30mph to 40mph possible (locally 50mph in the higher elevations)

Clouds and scattered showers approach the northern Hudson Valley by mid day, and push eastward during the early afternoon.  Behind the leading band of showers, will be some spotty showers and thundershowers.  Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe, but a strong, possibly damaging wind gust, can’t be ruled out.  Along with that shower and thundershower threat, will come the strong wind gusts.  Gusty winds over 30mph are possible, so make sure any loose objects are secure.  The wind gusts will continue through the evening hours, and gradually diminish tonight.

A cool day on tap for our Thursday, before we see temperatures jump into the upper 60s for Friday and even mid 70s on Saturday.  A beautiful start to the weekend seems likely.  We’ll keep our eyes on it.  Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Fantastic Fall Weather

October has started off rather quiet, which feels rather welcome considering all that 2020 has brought us.  Other than some rain showers Friday morning, we’ve been dry around the region.  Most of the area seeing between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of rain through the first 5 days.  Temperature wise, October is off to a pretty standard start as well…

Nationwide, we’ve had a rather chilly start over the eastern 2/3 of the country.  Locally, we’re close to average, with the chilliest weather focused off to our west.  This time of year, we should be in the mid 60s for afternoon highs, and low 40s for overnight lows.  Those numbers will continue to tumble slowly as we go through the month.  By the end of October, average highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s are expected… as fall gains its footing across the region.

But all told, the weather in our region has been relatively close to averages of late.  Even as we look back to the month of September, temperatures across the country were quite close to averages…

We had some cool spots in the central US, and warm spots along the west coast, but otherwise temps were fairly close to historical averages.

The Next Few Days…
So as we look at the next few days in the Hudson Valley… we expect temperatures to be a few degrees above average… with some SW winds, highs in the upper 60s to around 70° are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, before a brief cool down on Thursday and Friday.  But winds shift around to the SW once more for the weekend, and highs in the 70s are possible for Saturday.  Aside from a brief shower or thundershower on Wednesday afternoon… we look to stay rather dry through the weekend.  Our next chance at substantial rain looks like Monday.

As always, we’ll keep our eye on the situation, and update the forecast as necessary.  Have a great day!

Friday Discussion : Soggy Start, Fine Finish

Another weak low pressure trying to develop along the base of a digging trough, as we close out our work week on this Friday. The result has been rain showers to start our day, and those showers will continue through roughly mid day. From that point forward, we should begin drying out around the Hudson Valley, and have some breaks of afternoon sun. Temps will climb into the 60s this afternoon, and the day should end much nicer than it began.
2 Hour Radar Loop : 6:30am – 8:50am
The weekend looks partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Pretty standard weather for this time of year. Our next shot at rain comes Sunday night and Monday, as yet another low pressure system should try to form along the east coast. Guidance is mixed on whether it becomes a potent fall nor’easter with a soaking rainfall… or if it rolls on out to sea. Something for us to watch for our Monday weather. Until then, things look quiet. We hope everyone has a safe, healthy, and happy weekend!

Wednesday Discussion : Breezy and Cooler

You can already feel a cooler, drier airmass moving in across the Hudson Valley in the wake of last night’s storm.  Low pressure moving along the frontal boundary will bring a brief but potentially intense period of gusty winds to parts of Westchester,Putnam and Dutchess Counties over the next 1-2 hours with gusts of 40-55mph possible. Outages are possible in these areas, post frontal winds will be 10-20 MPH’s elsewhere with some 30 MPH gusts across the Catskills, and should not create any widespread issues outside of the counties listed above.