Detailed Forecast

After a scorching day on Monday… Tuesday was followed up with a rather warm, sunny summer day.  As we begin our Wednesday… things will start off much the same way Tuesday ended, with sunshine.  But clouds will increase through the day, and by late afternoon… we could see a few scattered showers in the region.

So for the daytime on Wednesday, sunshine fades behind clouds and highs are around 80°.  Then we watch as a disturbance approaches the region from the southwest.  It appears likely to clip the southern Hudson Valley with rain showers by sunset, and those showers could last overnight.  Let’s take a look at the futurecast radar…

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Wednesday through 6am Thursday

You’ll notice that a few spotty showers could reach our area between 4 and 8pm, but they seem very light and very spotty.  Then a more organized batch of rain should approach from the west.  You can see on the futurecast, that the rain area appears likely to focus from the I-84 corridor on south… between 6pm and 6am.

Now any time you have a situation like this, a very minor change in the track of the rain could mean more or less rain across the region.  So everyone should expect the threat for showers… but the odds are highest as you go further south.  Here’s the total projected rainfall…

You’ll notice the bulk of the rain is from I-84 on south… with maybe a few sprinkles near Poughkeepsie and Monticello.  So our northern viewers are likely to stay dry… while our southern viewers could pick up a decent amount of rain.

So expect the threat of rain Wednesday night, with things drying out early on Thursday.  Thursday’s weather looks great, and that leads into the weekend… where things become quite unsettled.  Right now, the weekend looks to see scattered showers and thunderstorms… with some more humid air.  The pattern looks a bit tricky… so check back to see if the details change for this coming weekend.

Happy hump day!

After a very active and very hot start to the work week, things look to return to a more tranquil status on Tuesday.

Clouds will mix with sunshine quickly on Tuesday, as cooler and drier air moves in from the north.  Afternoon highs will be about 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday.  Monday’s high in Poughkeepsie was 94°, and Tuesday’s high should be closer to 84°.  But the big difference will be with regard to the humidity levels on Tuesday.  Monday was quite oppressive, with dew points around 70°… on Tuesday, dew points will be much more comfortable, in the low 50s.  So instead of a hot and humid, mid summer day… Tuesday will see a more comfortable summer day.

This tranquil weather pattern will hold through the rest of the week… with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.  The one possible exception to this will be on Wednesday, where we will track a disturbance passing by to our south.  It could clip the southern edge of the valley as it does… and spread some clouds and a few spotty showers especially from I-84 on south.  We’ll have to track it… but either way it’s a minor issue for our area.

Monday Severe Weather Recap

We had notable severe weather event across the Hudson Valley on Monday.

You’ll notice that the reports are all wind damage across the Hudson Valley.  Reports were focused in Sullivan and Dutchess counties primarily.  Dutchess saw a severe cell push through around 4pm, and then a more organized line of thunderstorms pushed from west to east around 6pm.  We saw primarily reports of down trees and power lines in the areas where reports came in.  The size and scope of the event was no where near the major event from last month.  But it definitely packed a punch.

Feel free to share any reports in the comments section, but hopefully not too many of you were significantly impacted by the event.  Have a great Tuesday!

We saw the temperatures climb into the upper 80s across the region on Sunday… on Monday, we’ll see the heat and humidity in full effect.

Sunshine and blue skies will start our day on Monday, but the heat and humidity will overshadow the sunshine.  A SW wind will usher in some humidity and by mid day, many of us will have temps around 90°.  Highs by mid afternoon on Monday will top out between 90° and 95°.  But the rising dew points around 70° will make for ‘real feel’ heat index values between 95° and 100°.

So the heat and humidity will be the highest it’s been so far in 2018 on Monday.  But as luck would have it, we’ll have another weather story on Monday.  As the heat and humidity arrive in the Hudson Valley, it will be met by a cold front dropping south from Canada.  That will result in some atmospheric instability, and it could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, and a few could be severe.

The National Weather Service currently has the severe weather threat focused just north of the Hudson Valley.  It wouldn’t surprise us to see that “Slight Risk” area shift further south, into the Hudson Valley on Monday.  The reason is that a broken line of scattered thunderstorms is likely develop between 2 to 4pm, and push south during the late afternoon.

Futurecast Radar : 9am Monday to 6am Tuesday

• Timing the threat : 3pm to 8pm
• Scattered T-Storms, damaging wind gusts over 50mph possible
• 5% to 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 30 miles of your location

We’ll have scattered showers and thunderstorms develop to our north, and push southeast during the afternoon.  In terms of the scope of this severe threat, it’s not nearly as large as the major severe weather outbreak we experienced about a month ago (On a scale of 1 to 5… Monday’s threat is between a 1 and 2… while the major outbreak last month was a 4).  But we will have to watch the storms as they flare up, as a few could become severe.

We’ll try to share updates on social media as things develop.  But a busy weather day to start our work week, with heat and humidity… and the threat of scattered strong to severe storms.  No matter the weather, we hope you have a great Monday!

We’ll see 2 sides to summer this weekend.  We start with the nice side, which features summer temps in the 80s… with low humidity.

Rather light winds and dew points in the low 50s will make for a comfortable summer heat.  Despite the temps in the 80s this afternoon… it should be quite nice for anyone who likes summer weather.

Things warm up for Father’s Day on Sunday, as we watch the temps push toward 90° in the afternoon.  The good news is that the humidity should not build until late on Sunday.  Making for real feel temperatures very close to the actual air temperature… so it will be right around 90°, and feel like it’s right around 90°… every bit like summer.

Monday, will be the hottest day of 2018 so far.  The heat and humidity will be in full effect, with temps pushing well into the 90s…

But when you realize that dew point temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s… making for a VERY sticky day.  Look at these projected Heat Index (real feel) temps for Monday afternoon…

So make sure you factor this into your plans as we start the work week.  The heat and humidity will border on oppressive, so you’ll want to limit your outdoor activities on Monday.  The good news, is that the heat only lasts 1 day.  By Tuesday we’ll track scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing into the region, and that will bring temps back into the 80s across the Hudson Valley.

For now… enjoy a gorgeous Saturday!

A beautiful stretch of weather will continue, and carry us into the start of the weekend.

An area of disturbance will pass by to our east on Friday, which will lead to some clouds to start our day.  Those clouds should mix with increasing sunshine during the afternoon.  A NW flow will keep temperatures a touch below average for this time of year… in the mid 70s.  Combined with the low humidity… it should make for a very comfortable and enjoyable start to the weekend.

Heat and Humidity Builds Late Weekend

Saturday looks a few degrees warmer, with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Afternoon highs on Saturday should be in the low 80s.  But the flow then shifts out of the SW… and our weekend weather begins to change.

Sunday will bring us a mix of sunshine and clouds, but increased levels of heat.  Temps on Sunday should climb into the mid and upper 80s across the Hudson Valley.  In addition, increasing dew points will be felt from west to east… so as the afternoon progresses, the more uncomfortable it will feel.

By Monday… the heat and humidity peaks across the Hudson Valley…

Temperatures around the region will surge into the low and mid 90s.  Most notably, dew points will climb near or above the 70° mark.  That will make for some very uncomfortable… heat index values between 100° and 105°.  If you have outdoor plans for Monday… or plans that don’t involve air conditioning, make sure you begin to factor that in to your plans.  It’s likely going to be the hottest day of 2018 so far, so be sure to be ready for that.

We’ll track the approaching heat through the weekend… but after a beautiful start to the weekend, we’ll see heat and humidity on the rise for Father’s Day on Sunday, and especially on Monday.  Have a great Friday!

When dealing with summer time weather, people’s perspectives can vary greatly.  What I consider to be gorgeous weather, you could consider too hot.  A day that you consider very comfortable, could be too cool to another person.  So when we say “possibly picture perfect”… it’s always in the eye of the beholder.

We should see mostly sunny skies on Thursday, and very comfortable conditions.  A NW wind will usher in dry air, and push dew points down near 50°.  That will make for very low humidity levels.  At the same time, the warm June sun should help afternoon highs climb up into the upper 70s and toward 80° in many parts of the valley.  As usual, our friends in the Catskills will be a few degrees cooler, in the low to mid 70s.  All in all… a beautiful summer day across the region… at least in our opinion.

Friday we’ll watch an area of instability push over New England, and out to sea.  That shouldn’t affect our area, other than a few clouds in the morning.  But the NW flow should keep us a touch cool on Friday, with temps in the mid 70s and low humidity.  That’s roughly 5 degrees below average for this time of year.

The weekend starts out nice, with sunshine and warmth on Saturday… and temps pushing near or just above 80°.  Then the flow shifts SW on Sunday… and the heat builds into the region for Father’s Day.  Temps on Sunday likely push into the mid and upper 80s, but humidity levels may stay in check… we’ll have to watch.  But by Monday… all signs point to an oppressively hot day.

Certainly we’ll be tracking the pattern over the coming days… but Monday looks to see hazy, hot and humid conditions.  Dew points could climb into the low 70s.  Afternoon highs on Monday could surge into the mid 90s… which would combine with the humidity to generate Heat index ‘real feel’ temps between 100° and 105°!  We’ll get updates as we get closer… but the work week next week could start out oppressive.

For now… let’s enjoy the beautiful weather in the region.  Have a great Thursday!

Clouds have moved into the valley this morning, and we are tracking some scattered showers moving our way. So for today, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers possible through the day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s in most places. The sun will return tomorrow, as nice weather will close out the work week. Have a great Wednesday

The work week will start out quiet and comfortable… with no sign of heat and humidity in the Hudson Valley…

We’ll see sunshine increasing across the Hudson Valley, mixing with fair weather clouds at times.  Our winds will be out of the east, as a high pressure begins to strengthen and move off shore, into the Atlantic Ocean.  That will leave us with seasonably cool and comfortable weather.  The average high for this time of year is almost 80° (Poughkeepsie average = 79°).  Along with the slightly cool weather, will be low humidity.  So a taste of late spring setting up to start our week.

In addition, this weather is likely to last through much of the week.  Temps will climb up toward 80° by mid week… right near average, and likely carrying us into the late week.  Aside from a disturbance that will likely move through on Wednesday… it looks like we’ll see a lot of sunshine this week, which based on some of the comments we’ve seen, will be a welcome sight.

Have a great start to the work week!

This time of year, the forecasts are supposed to be easier.  The jet stream pushes north, into Canada, and we usually have tranquil weather… or afternoon showers and thunderstorms depending on the weather pattern.  So stalled out frontal boundaries with rain showers that hug the edges of the Hudson Valley… are not welcome.

The reason is these things require a LOT of attention, and with it being ballet recital season, and outdoor party season… we don’t spend quite so much time analyzing computer model data to generate a picture perfect forecast on a storm system with a sharp cutoff.  Long story short… Sunday doesn’t look as nice as previously expected.

Our earlier post for this weekend showed that the front was expected to sink further south and spare the Hudson Valley.  Of course, as luck would have it, the steering winds were not as strong, and the boundary has drifted further north.  This creates a VERY close call for the lower half of the Hudson Valley…

Futurecast Radar : 8am Sunday – 2am Monday

Notice the soaking rain generally stays southwest of the NY/NJ and NY/PA borders.  But between 12pm and 6pm… rain showers are likely to creep northward, into the lower Hudson Valley.

Now, this radar’s “bark” is likely worse than its “bite” (at least with regard to the Hudson Valley).  The northern edge of the rain is likely to evaporate a bit, and not reach the ground (especially north of I-84).  But areas from I-84 on south, could see periods of light to moderate rain showers this afternoon.  In terms of total rainfall amounts, here are our ideas…

You’ll notice a DRAMATIC cut off from nearly 1 inch of rain just south of the NY/NJ border… to no measurable rainfall in Poughkeepsie.  So it should come as no surprise that the lower half of the Hudson Valley is VERY uncertain with regards to rainfall.  They could see next to no rainfall… or over a half inch… all depending on the exact placement of this band of rain.  Our best guess is shown above… which has areas like Port Jervis, Warwick, and Nyack seeing nearly a half inch of rain.  Areas like Middletown, Newburgh, and Monticello… could see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain this afternoon… it all depends on the exact placement of the rain.

So not the greatest of Sunday afternoons… unless you live north of Monticello, New Paltz and Poughkeepsie.  Those areas will see a lot of clouds, but should remain dry (although a spot shower cant be ruled out).  But the further north you go… the more chances for sunshine you’ll see.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon… no matter what the weather.

We’ve been saying for a couple days that the weekend needed to be watched closely.  Guidance earlier in the week was projecting showers and thunderstorms to be a big factor in our weekend weather.  But a few days ago, we saw signs that suggested it could end up pushing further south.  And now, as luck would have it… things are looking nice and dry.

Let’s start with Friday…

As we move into the afternoon on Friday, we should have a nice warm day on tap.  Humidity levels should remain in check, with a NW flow leading to low dew points, making for a warm… but comfortable afternoon.  There is a slight chance of a pop up shower or T-shower in one or two spots… with just enough atmospheric instability to maybe touch off a spot shower…

You can see that there are a few stray showers on the futurecast radar.  So Friday afternoon activities could have a brief delay.

Weekend Looks Like a Winner!

So remember earlier in the week, where Saturday and Sunday looked like an unsettled and stormy situation.  Then things began to improve.  Then on Thursday, this was the projected weekend rainfall for the Northeast.

Notice that the heavy rain was not far from the Hudson Valley, and that showers were projected to bring light rainfall into our area over the weekend.  Well, here’s the UPDATED MAP, and you’ll notice, things are looking even better locally…

Notice how much further south the precipitation has shifted on the latest guidance.  That means not only does it appear dry, but we should get a good deal of sunshine mixing in as well.  Saturday and Sunday are looking very similar to each other, and here’s how Saturday looks:

Both days are looking very summer like, with highs around 80° or a couple degrees above.  Dew points should be low, in the low to mid 50s across the Hudson Valley.  That should translate into some very comfortable conditions, despite the summer heat.  So anyone with outdoor plans should be very happy with the result!

A great, early summer weekend across the Hudson Valley.  So we hope you’re able to enjoy it!