Sunday Discussion : Humberto Stays Away

Fog and low clouds will gradually burn off today, and leave us with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Highs this afternoon should climb well into the 70s… possibly hitting 80° in some places.

To update the tropical concern highlighted the other day. Tropical Storm Humberto has developed and now has maximum sustained winds of 60mph. This storm developed rather unexpectedly, and rather quickly. Model guidance didn’t discover that Humberto would materialize until late in the week, and some of the first guidance on Humberto took it right up the east coast.

Well the good news for the eastern coast of the United States, is that Humberto should stay safely off shore, and begin to turn east over the next 24 to 48 hours. Then it should track steadily NE toward Bermuda. Residents of Bermuda need to keep a close eye on Humberto, as guidance has it tracking very close by Wednesday evening. It could approach as a cateogory 2 or 3 storm, if conditions continue to be favorable for development. So we’ll keep an eye on the situation over the coming days.

Locally… the weather looks great for all Sunday afternoon activities. Hope everyone enjoys this mid-September Sunday!

Saturday Afternoon Discussion: 4pm Radar Update

Our gray Saturday has become a soggy Saturday for many parts of the region.  A batch of rain showers has pushed into the region, focused in Dutchess and Columbia Counties.  We’ll continue to see scattered light rain showers and patchy areas of drizzle moving from west to east through the Hudson Valley.  The shower threat will continue this evening, with conditions improving by sunrise on Sunday.

Friday Discussion : Watching Tropics

We are now watching what may become Tropical Storm Humberto, it will unfortunately impact the NW Bahamas today into tomorrow, including most of the areas recovering for Dorian. Beyond that we are looking at another slow moving tropical system crawling just off shore.

The sea surface temps along this route are still very much cooled down from the upwelling of the ocean caused by Dorian, we can only hope that will lessen this storm from reaching its full potential. It’s to soon to say what the storm will do beyond this period, all interests along the eastern seaboard will once again need to stay tuned.

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled and Gray

Bit of a roller coaster the next 4 days, today will be cool and cloudy with scattered showers, highs today will struggle out of the 60’s for most locations. Overnight showers will still linger for the first half, then just cloudy with some clearing well after midnight, today’s cool high temps will allow some areas to drop into the 40’s tonight, while most will see low to mid 50’s.

Tomorrow looks like a great day! Sunshine highs in the upper 60’s with comfortable humidity. Winds will eventually shift to the south, humidity will slowly begin to increase as will the clouds tomorrow night. This will set the stage for a returning change of showers on Saturday. Warmer temps return again for Sunday as does the sun, and warmer temps linger through next week.

Everyone have a great day!

9/11… Never Forget

Please set your reminders, it’s our obligation as more and more time passes since that day 18 years ago, it’s important to live up to our commitment which was to “Never Forget”. We need to make sure our children never forget, and every generation that follows, it’s the least we can do. Take a moment today and remember all those who perished, all those who sacrificed, all the hero’s and the families who were lost or impacted.

Let’s also remember how we all were as a nation in the days, weeks and months that followed this day 18 years ago. Not just the fear, not just the sadness or the anxiety, we were united. Flags on everyone’s porches, people helping people, everyone looking out for each other. The people we lost that day would want us to be that version, “Never Forget” to me isn’t just the events of that day, it’s “Never Forgetting” what that day reminded us all that we needed to be as a country. Yes we won’t forget where we were, what we saw, watching the news, looking up to see no planes in the sky. But our vulnerabilities were brought to the surface that day, as a country and as individuals, there was no room for bravado or ego, just support and togetherness. We found comfort in the feeling of community, we all grieved together and we all healed together, but over time we continue to drift further and further away from that. To me personally, that is the biggest injustice to forget, don’t forget that we are at our strongest together and united towards one purpose. In 8 years of HVW you have all learned we keep things weather 99.8% of the time, it’s easier that way. Every once in awhile I feel obligated to use the reach and the platform to express my feelings on a topic, here’s one of those moments. Some may try to make this post political with their comments, but let’s use this comment thread and the entire community that is HVW to be kind to one another, share your memories of that day, the heroes we lost, let’s never forget who we need to be everyday, to each other.

To our friends in law enforcement, first responders, fire fighters, military, doctors and nurses and people who worked the pile on cranes and with buckets and the people who continue to this day to suffer from or lose people they love to 9/11 illnesses, we have not forgotten you, we continue to thank you for your service and we appreciated you continuing to put community first.

-Alex

Thursday Discussion : Locally Nice, Dorian off SE Coast

If you go out side and look to your South you will see high cirrus clouds being whipped west to east by upper level winds. These upper level winds are the same steering currents that will steer Dorian in a NE direction as it passes the Carolinas. The clouds you are seeing are actually the outer cloud shield of the Hurricane itself despite its current location off the SC/NC coast. Matter of fact if your in the northern most parts of the region you would be able to make out the entire arching profile of the cloud deck of Dorian.

Yesterday’s cold front was a small assist in changing the overall pattern in such a way that Dorian would not be able to take a track NW towards our region. This combined with the ever present jet stream that so often protects the region from Hurricane threats. In situations like Sandy and Irene we had thread the needle scenarios where our atmospheric protectors were not in place.

Wednesday Discussion : PM Storm Threat

Chance for severe storms this afternoon, a cold front will bring a line of storms through the region from NW to SE between 1-5PM. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of our region under slight chance of severe weather, the second image explains what this mean.

As always, the key to determining if this line becomes strong to severe or just passing showers will be instability. Currently there is some cloud cover over parts of the region, if those persist the threat diminishes, if the sun comes out vice versa. All the other ingredients are in place, approaching cold front and strong sheer, just need the fuel source.

As always, we will keep our eyes on the radar and update as needed, seeing this is the first day of school for many, and this line of storms will impact parts of the region around dismissal time, it’s important to keep an eye to the sky, or to us, or whichever you prefer.

Good luck in school today kids!

Hurricane Dorian Looms for SE Coast

The weekend will start out tranquil for the Northeast, making anyone with plans quite pleased.  So our focus shifts to the number one weather story in the United States, Hurricane Dorian.

As of late Friday night, Dorian is a strong Category 4 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140mph… and gusts op to 165mph!  With favorable conditions for development over the Bahamas, this is looking like an extremely dangerous situation for the eastern coast of Florida, as well as the Bahamas.  In the image above, each “M” is the proposed position every 12 hours.  So while the storm is only approximately 550 miles east of Florida, this storm is still projected east of the Florida coast by Monday night.  This storm is projected to slow to a crawl… allowing for Dorian to maintain much of it’s intensity.  More importantly still… areas North and West of the center of circulation, will see areas of rainfall exceeding 10 to 20 inches, resulting in potential flooding, depending on the precise track.

The latest guidance has been trending with a further east track.  Dorian will likely slow down considerably, maintaining intensity, and really hammering away at the Bahamas.  This is a nasty scenario for the Bahamas, bringing Category 3 or 4 sustained winds (130mph+) to parts of the Bahamas.  Anyone in that area, must prepare for a major hurricane impact.  The details could change a bit, but the odds that the Bahamas escape hurricane conditions are diminishing rapidly.

Focusing on the US Coastline, the latest trends of Dorian projecting to slow down, could be good news for Florida and the Georgia coastline.  A slower Dorian will be a stronger Dorian… but if the western progression slows enough, an upper level trough could influence Dorian enough to steer it just off shore.  Up through now… a strong Bermuda high pressure has been steering Dorian west, toward Florida.  But as Dorian nears the US, the air patterns over the US will begin to interact with Dorian, and if the upper level winds push out of the northwest as now projected, it could help slow Dorian and steer it just east of Florida.

GFS Projection for Dorian: Next 7 Days

If that happens the entire eastern coast needs to remain vigilant, as Dorian turns northward.  The Carolinas and Virginia could be the next target next week.  But for now, we should only look about 24 to 72 hours out for Dorian, because a minor change in the position today, could result in big changes downstream.  But needless to say, everyone along the east coast will be watching Dorian very closely.

Wednesday Discussion : Late Day Shower Threat

The first half of our Wednesday has been quite nice, with breaks of sunshine, and temps around 80°. But we’ll see conditions slowly deteriorate over the afternoon hours, as an approaching cold front brings the threat of rain showers and localized downpours for our late afternoon and evening commute.
The latest radar snapshot looks rather ominous, with plenty of rainfall off to our west. Guidance suggests that this rain should break up and weaken a bit as it pushes toward the Hudson Valley. But we do expect unsettled conditions for the evening commute.
 
– 4pm to 10pm : Scattered light to moderate rain showers
– localized downpour possible, as well as rumble of thunder
– evening activities could see a rain delay
 
Just something to keep aware of for your afternoon and evening activities. The rain showers taper off by midnight, and conditions will improve overnight.