Detailed Forecast

Another round of rain will push through the region over the next few hours, we have already recorded over 3 inches at our station in Ulster County. The wind will begin to pick up as the rain departs early this afternoon, winds gusting up to 50 mph combined with saturated grounds will likely lead to sporadic power outages across the region.  

As the storm departs colder air will crash into the region, this will cause rain to change to snow briefly across the higher terrain with light accumulations possible.

The region saw some rain overnight but there is more to come, a warm front has lifted north through the region, this has begun to warm the region from the top down, with colder air holding a bit stronger in the valley locations. We are monitoring a line of storms now pushing into Delaware County. There is enough instability ahead of this line that we may see some strong to severe criteria reached as the line pushes east. Once this line passes through, we will be transistioning into a more widespread rainfall once again as we head into later this evening into tomorrow.  

 

 

A very slow moving, nearly stalled cold front with waves of low pressure moving along it with bring a prolonged period of rain across the region today through Saturday.It appears that rain today will me scattered in nature and pick up in coverage and intensity as we head into the very early hours of Friday and continuing in varying intensity through Saturday, guidance has the precip pulling out of the region between noon and 4pm on Saturday, we will iron out that time a bit more by tomorrow.  Below are the NAM,GFS and EURO total precipitation ending Saturday.

As you can see, there is a good consensus that the axis of heaviest rainfall with be across the Hudson Valley, With 1-2 inches being the general theme, although the Catskills will see upwards of 4 inches of rain thanks to terrain enhancement. Ahead of this front we will see temps surge as a strong southerly flow pushes warm air into the region.

Temps will feel like spring on Friday afternoon as 60’s and 70’s surge north! Notice that bit of blue on the far left side of the map? That is the colder air associated with the incoming front, when the front pushes through it will push through with a vengeance!

Exactly 24 hours later we are knocked back down to reality, so much so that the precip will likely end as wet snow across the Catskills and the Taconics as the cold air crashes into the region.

A crisp morning across the region this morning, had a widespread frost at my house in Ulster County this morning. Don’t let this cold start trick your treat for later this evening. A warm front is lifting through the region so temps will rebound nicely throughout the day with temps peaking into the upper 50’s and low 60’s from the low temps this morning.  The only devil in the details is a slowly approaching cold front moving towards the region. Clouds will also be increasing throughout the day with overcast skies in place by this evening.

Short range guidance suggests that the moisture associated with this will front will remain north of the region, as the cold front will struggle to push into the region. Chance of rain for the evening continues to be low probability although we can’t rule out a few rouge showers. So trick or treating should not only be fairly warm, but also dry! Looking ahead into Thursday and Friday, this cold front eventually does make its way into our region and stalls out, meaning a prolonged period of unsettled weather with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts exceeding 1-2 inches by Friday evening. We will have more on the incoming rain threat later this evening and tomorrow. Everyone have a great day!

A decent afternoon in place across the region this afternoon with mid 40’s to 50’s in place across most of the region with the exception of some colder spots across the higher terrain.  Clearing skies tonight with lighter winds than last night should allow us to cool off quite a bit with temps dropping into the 30’s.

A southerly flow building into the region means a much warmer Halloween than we have been seeing in terms of October temps with highs pushing into the 50’s with some spots even break 60 across the valley. We are watching a cold front that will push into the region tomorrow night, along it there may be some scattered shower activity that could impact some trick or treating, although it appears limited to the Nw parts of the region.

The second area of low pressure in 72 hours is pushing northeastward, bringing another round of scattered light rain showers to the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar: 12am – 6pm Monday

We’ll see the scattered rain showers pushing through during the early morning hours on Monday, and mostly exiting before noon.  However a brief, stray light rain shower can’t be ruled out through the afternoon.  Temperatures on Monday will climb into the low 50s… but during the afternoon, we’ll notice an increasing westerly wind, gusting over 20mph at times.  So a rather breezy afternoon is heading our way.

We’ll see a warming trend through the week… as a high pressure sets up over the eastern US and western Atlantic.  This will keep the weather tranquil, but moderating in terms of temperatures.  By Wednesday, Halloween is looking to see above average temperatures, pushing into the low 60s for highs.  And with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s for overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday… a comfortable trick-or-treat event seems in the cards.  Some welcome news to all the parents, family and friends who will be out and about Wednesday evening.

So a good start to the week… after we get through some scattered showers early on Monday.  Have a great day!

If you check the mid day radar, it looks like things are improving across the Hudson Valley. 

The radar shows the heavy rains to our north, and the spotty light rain showers left in the Hudson Valley.  But what this radar doesn’t take into account is the strong, locally damaging wind gusts out of the northeast.  Gusts over 35mph are possible at times, which can cause localized power outages (such as the one in the Pine Bush area, at my [Bill’s] house)

The afternoon will contain strong wind gusts and rain showers of varying intensities all over the region.  Temps will hold in the 40s in general, so make sure you’ve got your umbrellas and rain gear handy.  On second thought, you may want to skip the umbrella… the wind will likely rip it out of your hands.

Stay warm and dry this afternoon!

A glance at the current radar shows our Nor Easter developing to our south…

Moisture associated with the storm will reach our southern most zones by later this evening and overspread the remainder of the region tonight. Temps have not risen much today and will likely drop back down to below freezing across the Catskills tonight. Once precipitation begins we will see temps drop a few more degrees as well. This should be enough for a wintry mix and wet snow to fall across the higher terrain above 1500’. The highest and mostly uninhabited peaks and summits will likely see a prolonged period of wet snow that lasts into Saturday.

The weather pattern sure has changed from what we saw in September.  Instead of mild and muggy… we’ve shifted to blustery and cold.  For the afternoon on Thursday, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Winds will be howling out of the NW at 10 to 15mph, and gusts will climb over 25mph at times.  So make sure you’ve got a firm grip on the steering wheel today when driving.  Afternoon temperatures will struggle to climb into the mid and upper 40s this afternoon… but with the gusty wind… the wind chill will hold in the 30s and low 40s.  So be sure to bundle up!

Anyone looking for info about the weekend nor’easter, our Wednesday Discussion is still valid, in terms of what to expect.  We’ll try to take a closer look again tonight, to discuss if any details have changed.  Have a great Thursday!