Sunday Outlook : Messy Winter Mix

The setup for Sunday hasn’t changed a whole lot, so at the risk of sounding repetitive, let’s look at the situation…

The morning hours will be cloudy and cold… with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.  A few scattered snow showers are likely, but nothing substantial… until we near the noon hour.  Wet snow is likely to develop near or shortly after noon.  It could accumulate a coating to an inch or so across the valley… even up to 2 inches in the northern valley.  But by mid to late afternoon (2 to 5pm), the snow likely changes to rain from south to north along the Hudson River Valley.  That should help travel conditions for anyone heading to a Super Bowl party around sunset.  We’ll have to monitor the situation, for temperatures… precipitation, and road conditions.

It will be a different story in the Catskills, as colder air will hold on for longer.  Wet snow is likely for much of the afternoon, and that wet snow could hold on even at some of the lower elevations of the western HV.  So an inch or two of wet snow is possible in the western HV… and as you go well up into the Catskills… 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible.

But as we near sunset… it looks as if there is a surge of warm air through all of our viewing area… and that could lead to a period of moderate rain for much of the viewing area… before things taper off near midnight.  This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because if the warm surge of air does not come… then snow and ice could be extended further south.  It’s unlikely… but possible, and so we’ll need to watch things VERY close on Sunday, to see how they develop.

Expect many updates on Facebook, as well as updates to the website in the 24 hour forecast and possibly some short blog updates.  No matter what, be sure to be alert to the conditions in your area on Sunday, and to anyone travelling, have a safe and happy Super Bowl experience.

Saturday Outlook : Ready for the Super Bowl

Saturday across the Hudson Valley looks to be a seasonably cold day.  We’ll have lots of sunshine to start out, and temps likely in the single digits and low teens across the region.  But during the day, we’ll see the SW wind begin to pull warmer air up from the south.  This should gradually help get afternoon temps into the upper 20s and around 30° for a high.  Not warm by any stretch… but a bit of an improvement from Friday’s bitter chill.

The clouds will roll in as the evening progresses, and that will lead to mostly cloudy skies for Saturday night.  The SW wind will prevent temps from taking a tumble Saturday night, so expect overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.

That leads us to Sunday.  Many of you have likely been hearing about a significant snow storm for Super Bowl Sunday.  That may have been the case in the alternate reality of a computer model several days ago… but while our weather for Super Bowl Sunday doesn’t look great, it’s likely not going to be nearly as bad as what some of you may have heard.

Cloudy skies will be the story for our morning hours on Sunday.  But we’ll have a SW flow ahead of the approaching storm system.  If we were going to see a significant snow on Sunday, we would want to see a NE wind out ahead of the storm.  A NE wind helps reinforce cold air into the Hudson Valley, which is critical for a significant snow event.  So the SW wind already tells us that this is likely to be a significant snow event for the Hudson Valley.

The precipitation likely arrives in the Hudson Valley between 11am and 2pm from SW to NE.  Temperatures at that time will likely be in the low to mid 30s across the valley (upper 20s to near 30°) in the Catskills.  So initially, snow could fall across the entire viewing area.  But it appears that rather quickly, the snow will mix with or turn to rain in the Hudson Valley… and by mid afternoon (4pm), it’s a rain event for many of us… with wet snow likely in the Catskills and higher elevations.  By sunset, it’s possible that we see even the Catskills turn to rain before it ends between 6pm and midnight from west to east.

In terms of snowfall accumulations, we really don’t expect all that much in the Hudson Valley.  A coating to an inch or two should do it across the valley… and most of that is north of I-84 and away from the Hudson River in the higher elevations.  From I-84 on south… it’s possible that you see no accumulation what-so-ever, and that this is a mainly rain event.  We’ll fine tune the details over the next 36 hours, but this is what our thinking is right now.

Thanks for all your continued support… have a great Saturday!

Saturday Outlook : Sun, Clouds and a Chill

After a seasonably chilly start across the Hudson Valley on Saturday, we’ll see sunshine filtered through a good bit of fair weather cloudiness.

Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine for our Saturday.  Our wind won’t be much of a factor at all in today’s weather, which is a nice change of pace.  We do have a chilly air mass in place over the Hudson Valley, so you’re going to want you coat for any outside activities.  But it is December now (hard to believe)… and the average high in Poughkeepsie for this time of year is right around where we should be today.  So by early December standards, we’ve got a pretty nice day lined up… with highs expected in the mid 40s.

Sunday looks pretty nice as well, as we should have clouds mixing with a fair bit of afternoon sunshine.  Winds won’t be a factor in Sunday’s weather either, so it might be a pretty good day to do some holiday decorations.  Highs on Sunday should push into the upper 40s to around 50°.  So we’ll have a nice tranquil start to December.

That won’t last, however.  We’ve got big changes on the way, primarily in terms of temperatures.  We’re tracking a major pattern shift in the jet stream, and that will take effect later this coming week.  We’ve shared this graphic a couple times, but here it is once more.  This map shows how the projected temperatures will compare to average, over a 5 day period.

Sunday Outlook : Clouds, Damp and Unsettled

An approaching storm system to our west, will push a warm front into the Hudson Valley on Sunday.  The result will be a rather gray day, and areas of drizzle to contend with.

We expect mainly cloudy skies, with areas of patchy light drizzle across the region.  The best chance for scattered showers, will be the western half of the Hudson Valley, and especially the Catskills.  This is because we anticipate a small batch of light rain showers to press northeastward during the day on Sunday… and that area of showers should be just off to our west / northwest.  So if you see a spotty shower or two… don’t be too surprised.

Afternoon highs will be a bit mild, in response to the passing warm front.  Temps should climb into the upper 50s for many places, possibly reaching 60° in a few spots.  A peek of sunshine can’t be ruled out… but the day as a whole looks rather gray, with a damp drizzly feel.

We’ll have a warm start to the work week on Monday, before the cold front swings through.  After that, it looks like seasonable temps for Tuesday and Wednesday, under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Hope you have a great Sunday!