Detailed Forecast

Monday Discussion : Fine Day, Followed by More Rain

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After a hot summer day on Sunday, we’ll start the work week off with another warm, summer day. A mix of clouds and sunshine, along with highs in the low to mid 80s… with heat index values in the mid 80s as well. The story then turns to yet another wave of low pressure approaching the Hudson Valley and northeast.
A wave of low pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley on Monday, and spread scattered rain showers into the Hudson Valley by midnight on Monday night. Then as we head into the overnight, some areas of heavier rain are possible to develop.  Periods of rain are possible into the morning commute on Tuesday before fully tapering off. Much of the computer guidance suggests that around an inch of rain is expected on average across the Hudson Valley (locally 0.75″ to 1.25″).
But the HRRR model is quite bold about the rainfall rates before sunrise on Tuesday.
The futurecast radar for 4am suggests that an area of torrential rains will push through parts of the Hudson Valley. If that solution is correct… then the region could see closer to 2″ or 2.5″ of rain… which could lead to flash flooding concerns. Something we’ll watch as we get closer to Monday night.
 
The Tuesday AM commute could be impacted with rain lingering until after sunrise, so be sure to plan for that as well. Have a great start to your work week, and we’ll update if flash flood concerns become more likely.
-Bill

Saturday Discussion : Afternoon Scattered T-Storms

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– Scattered T-Storms develop in afternoon
– Starting around 3pm & lasting through midnight
– Slight Risk of Severe Weather (15% chance)
 
Another frontal boundary takes aim on the Hudson Valley for our Saturday. The day will begin nice enough… with sunshine mixing with clouds, and temps climbing into the low and mid 80s. As the afternoon progresses, the frontal boundary will approach, and we’ll see scattered showers & T-Storms develop.
At first the threat is likely to be focused in the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley… but that threat will spread southward late afternoon into the evening hours.
There is roughly a 15% chance of damaging wind gusts or large hail developing in our area, so we’ll need to be alert to the development of storms Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts could be a half inch to an inch in most areas. As always, we’ll try to pass along any alerts and advisories as they develop.
 
Looking to Sunday, skies should clear out, and the region should dry out… and we should see highs again in the low to mid 80s, but with low humidity. A gorgeous second half of the weekend is possible. But to get there, we have to get through a bumpy Saturday afternoon and evening. Have a great day, and keep an eye out this afternoon….
-Bill

Wednesday Discussion : Great Weather Returns

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After a soaking rain Monday evening, The storm exited the region on Tuesday, and will leave us with a fine day for our Wednesday around the region. Expect sunshine mixed with some fair weather clouds… and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Low humidity will be in place again on Wednesday, making for a comfortable afternoon across the Hudson Valley.
Our next chance for rain comes on Thursday, with the approach of another area of low pressure. The timing looks to be during the afternoon on Thursday, and the rainfall totals look to be a half inch or so… but we’ll keep an eye on it. From there, an active pattern will continue, with a chance at rain showers again Saturday night into Sunday… then again next Tuesday. In between, we should have some nice days here in the valley… but we’ll have an active pattern to keep us busy.
 
Have a great Wednesday, everyone!

Monday Discussion : Rainy Start to the Work Week

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…SUMMARY…
– 3am to 12pm Mon: Period of rain showers likely (thunder possible)
– Mon PM: Mostly cloudy, unsettled, patchy showers / T-Storms
– 10pm Mon – 2am Tue: Squall line of T-Storms & rain
– Tue AM – Scattered showers taper off
– 1.0″ to 2.5″ of rain possible (locally higher in Catskills)
 
After a beautiful weekend, we’ve got an area of low pressure pushing into our region Sunday night into Monday. An area of scattered showers will move into the Hudson Valley after midnight, and before sunrise… a rumble or two of thunder can’t be ruled out as well. That sets the stage for a soggy Monday AM commute. Be sure to allow for extra travel time Monday morning on the wet roadways.
The valley should dry out before noon, but we should remain mainly cloudy. The afternoon hours look mainly dry, but a pop up shower or T-Storm can’t be ruled out Monday afternoon. The clouds and morning rain, should help to stabilize the atmosphere, keeping our severe weather threat down a bit. A stray shower could also move through during the evening hours on Monday as well.
Guidance suggests a squall line of strong showers & T-Storms moving through near midnight (between 9pm Monday night and 2am Tuesday). One or two could be severe, but again, the severe weather threat looks to be marginal (5% or so) for most of us. The bigger worry is the heavy downpours that could accompany these showers. Localized totals over 1 inch could be associated with the squall line… and total rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.5 inches is possible.
Because of the rain over the past 45 days, the potential for flash flooding appears to be 15% to 40% (graphic 1)… so we’ll see if any flood watches get posted on Monday.
 
Updates will follow as needed in the coming 24 hours, as another area of soaking rain takes aim on the Hudson Valley. Have a great Monday everyone!

Beautiful Weekend followed by Unsettled Start to the Week

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A beautiful Saturday unfolding across the Hudson Valley, with sunshine mixed with clouds, along with low humidity and high temperatures around 80°. Saturday night looks partly to mostly clear, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60°. Temps both Saturday & Saturday night are roughly 2 to 5 degrees below average… quite comfortable for the first Saturday of August.
Sunday looks just as beautiful, with sunshine once again mixing with clouds… but afternoon highs are expected to get into the low and mid 80s. In addition, the humidity levels are expected to be quite comfortable… so anyone with outdoor activities should be very happy with our weather for the first weekend of August.
 
From there… our conditions begin to go downhill a bit. Another upper level trough will push into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will allow a low pressure system to push into the eastern US, and that will spread clouds and rain into the Hudson Valley and northeast as we move into Monday.
The futurecast radar for 8am Monday morning is the 2nd image, and you can see that a damp start to the work week is likely. Periods of rain showers are likely to continue though the afternoon on Monday, keeping things cool and damp, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s expected. Scattered rain showers should begin to taper off Monday night or early Tuesday morning. By the time the system clears the region on Tuesday… much of the Hudson Valley will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
The weather should quiet down for the middle of the week… with highs near average for early August… in the low to mid 80s. Then late Thursday into Friday we could have another chance at rain, as another low pressure spins down along the upper level trough. For now… enjoy some beautiful weekend weather for early August!
-Bill

Monday Weather Discussion : Low Humidity to End the Month

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July was warmer and more humid than average in the Northeast, and Hudson Valley. However, Monday will be gorgeous in the Hudson Valley. Sunshine mixing with clouds, and highs in the upper 70s to near 80°. An isolated shower can’t be ruled out… but most places will be very comfortable with slightly below average temperatures. The same will be said for overnight lows… in the mid to upper 50s each night. Air conditioning will be able to rest for the next few days… as we open up those windows overnight, and let in the low humidity and comfortable overnight temps … filter on in. Have a great day!
Bill

Sunday Discussion : Gorgeous Sunday Weather

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It only took the entire month of July… but we finally got rid of that upper level low pressure in Canada, and finally got a crisp Canadian air mass moving into the northeast. You will notice a dramatic change from yesterday’s weather… where we saw heat index values in the mid 90s. Today… we’ll see sunshine and blue skies with very low humidity. Highs will peak in the upper 70s, possibly hitting 80°. A gorgeous Sunday for the end of July.
 
Looking forward, this comfortable air mass hangs on for a few days, with comfortable night temps in the mid to upper 50s. The coolest night looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning… where low 50s and possibly a few upper 40s are possible in the hills. High temps through the week will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Our next chance of rain on Thursday, as a weak boundary may push through… with some scattered showers possible.
 
A gorgeous end to the month of July. Enjoy your Sunday Hudson Valley!
-Bill

Monday Discussion : Warm, Scattered PM T-Storms

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A beautiful weekend across the valley, with temps in the mid 80s, which is near average for this time of year. More importantly, the humidity which has been with us for seemingly a month or more… gave way to a comfortable air mass.
 
That trend continues on Monday. Partly to mostly sunny skies to start the day, with comfortable humidity. Temps will rise into the mid 80s once again… but a weak trough approaching will touch off scattered showers and T-Storms in the afternoon. They will be sporadic and random in nature, so everyone needs to be alert to the potential of a rain delay anytime after noon. In general a 20% to 40% of Showers & T-Storms is possible… with roughly a 5% to 15% chance that one of those storms could become severe… with damaging wind gusts. You can see the futurecast radar shows roughly the scenario we expect on Monday afternoon… so just be prepared.
Tuesday looks similar, with highs in the mid 80s and isolated to scattered afternoon T-Storms. From there… Wednesday and Thursday begin to heat up, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with increasing humidity. Near the end of the week, we’ll watch an approaching frontal boundary that could bring cooler & drier air for next weekend.
 
We’ll try to share updates as things begin to develop on Monday afternoon. Have a great start to the week.

Mid Day Friday Update – T-Storms Possible

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The line of showers and thunderstorms pushed through the Hudson Valley in the pre-dawn hours… thankfully it had weakened considerably from what we saw earlier last night off to our west. Much of the area saw between a tenth of an inch and a quarter inch of rain.
 
Looking ahead to the remainder of the day… we do expect pop up T-Storm cells to develop in the humid air. There is a marginal risk (5% to 15%) of severe weather in the Hudosn Valley. The higher risk is just off to our east in CT and MA. As always, these events are notoriously difficult to predict the exact areas that will be affected in advance. So keep your guard up this afternoon. Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds are the primary concerns… some small hail can’t be ruled out either.
 
We’ll try to keep you a step ahead of things, but these storms can pop up and strengthen quickly. Have a nice afternoon… TGIF, Hudson Valley!

Thu 11pm Radar Discussion & Overnight Storm Potential

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Summary:
– Squall line of T-Storms reaches HV between 1am and 5am
– Strong wind gusts, hail, lightning, heavy downpours possible.
– Rainy and unsettled AM commute possible.
– Scattered Showers & T-Storms a concern Friday PM
Monitoring the current radar, a strong to severe line of showers and T-Storms pushing eastward from the Buffalo and Rochester area… soon to be moving into Rochester and Binghampton. You can see on the radar image, blue polygons representing “Severe Thunderstorm Warnings” on the front edge of the squall line. These are mainly for damaging wind gusts and hail.
This line will continue pushing east tonight, and should begin to reach the western Hudson Valley as early as 1:30 to 2am. From there, the line should push eastward across our region between 2am to 5am. Guidance suggests that the storms will weaken overnight, as the squall line moves east. There is a fairly decent chance that some of us will be woken up in the middle of the night by the arrival of thunderstorms. We’ll do our best to pass along any advisories as the night wears on. We’ll watch for heavy downpours, lightning… damaging wind gusts…. as well as the potential for flash flooding in the pre-dawn hours.
Then as the day progresses on Friday, we could see some showers and T-Storms redevelop during the afternoon. Those storms may be slower moving, and could touch off flash flooding if the heavy rains train over the same areas. This could be any time from late morning through the afternoon on Friday.
A rather busy 24 hours ahead for the Hudson Valley. Just keep checking in with us at HVW, and we’ll try to get you the latest information.
-Bill