Saturday Discussion : Taste of Spring

A springlike weekend in store for the Hudson Valley. A massive upper level ridge has locked in over the eastern US, and the result is warm air being allowed to surge northward, into our area. High temperatures on Saturday will hover near 60 degrees… and Sunday we’ll see the mercury climb into the low and middle 60s for most of us.

An approaching storm system to our west, will be forced to track into the Great Lakes and southern Canada because of the upper level ridge over our area. That will keep clouds and the threat of a shower or scattered drizzle in the forecast through Sunday morning… but should also help keep us mainly dry, while the main area of rain and storms are forced well NW of the Hudson Valley.

Our rain moves in overnight, as showers and downpours will become more likely after midnight. A squall line of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday morning. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. We’ll monitor this concern as this time of year, these very warm air masses can set the stage for potentially damaging wind gusts as the squall line moves through.

Otherwise, hope you are able to enjoy some beautiful springlike weather. Some of us may have cabin fever this time of year… today may be a great chance to get out and shake off the winter cobwebs. Have a great Saturday!

Thursday Discussion : A Day of Cold

In a mild January… when you have a seasonably cold day, it feels bitter. That’s what we’ve got on tap for our Thursday. Lots of sunshine with a diminishing NW wind as the day progresses. Afternoon highs will be within a degree or two of 30°.
From there, temps begin to climb as we move into the weekend. Friday will be unsettled… mostly cloudy with a few areas of patchy drizzle or a spot shower. Highs on Friday should climb into the mid 40s… and then linger in the low 40s Friday night.
Then on Saturday, skies should remain mainly cloudy, with a few spotty showers possible. There is potential for Saturday to be gorgeous, partly to mostly cloudy with highs around 60°… but it’s also possible that low clouds, patchy fog and drizzle to linger, with temps in the mid and upper 50s. It will all depend literally on how the wind blows.
Sunday will be the day where the front moves through… and ahead of it, it will be windy and warm. But any time you have colder air clashing into extremely warm air… strong thunderstorms are possible. We’ll have to monitor the potential and timing on Sunday. Temps will likely surge into the low 60s ahead of the front… and then tumble into the 40s behind it.
We’ll try to focus in on the timing of things as we get into Friday. For now… have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Squalls and Blustery

As we approach mid day, clouds are mixing with sunshine, and our wind has become more gusty out of the west/northwest. Temperatures are in the mid 30s, but the strong wind gusts are making for wind chills in the 20s.
We’ve had many questions about the timing of snow squalls this afternoon. Squalls by their nature are notoriously tough to predict in advance… the morning burst of snow was evidence of that. In addition, the Binghamton radar is down, limiting our ability to track snow showers approaching from our west.
For the early afternoon… clouds will mix with sunshine, and winds will be gusty. Snow squalls will be possible, but most likely not until mid and late afternoon… but even those will be few and far between. It’s just something to keep on guard for.
Cold sets in for the next day or two… and then we’ll see temps rise for the weekend out ahead of our next storm. Highs on Saturday could approach 60°. Have a great afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Close Call Likely a Near Miss

In terms of winter weather… 2020 is getting off to a slow start. This slow start will be highlighted nicely by what happens tonight… where the Hudson Valley snow shield will be fully operational.
A weak low pressure will develop off the coast tonight, and it’s going to spread an area of snow ahead of it on the northern side of the storm. However, as you can clearly see in this futurecast radar loop… the snow shield will be deployed, and completely obliterate the area of snow heading in our direction. In reality… dry air, will combine with the storm redeveloping off shore, to cause the area of snow to dissipate just as it reaches our area… and then redevelop off to our east.
The end result will be a few snow showers that amount to a dusting in some places tonight, before the storm exits early on Wednesday. School delays are NOT likely, as the odds for accumulating snow are low.
In fact, our best chance for accumulating snow will come Wednesday late morning and afternoon… as strong NW winds create lake effect snows behind this system. A few snow showers or snow squalls could survive into the Hudson Valley. Those squalls could cause a burst of snow in scattered locations, leading to rapidly changing conditions. We’ll monitor that potential as we get into Wednesday.
We will continue to track this weak system, and if anything changes we’ll let you know. Have a nice afternoon!

Sunday Night Discussion : Light Snow Overnight

A very blustery Sunday is coming to a close, that featured strong NW wind gusts, bringing a chill back to the Hudson Valley after a mild start to the year.  And along with the colder air, will be some light snow showers overnight.
A weak warm front will touch off some warm advection snow across the region.  You can see by the 1st image, that a band of light snow should develop out ahead of the approaching warm front.  There isn’t a lot of cold air in place… nor is there a lot of warm air behind the frontal boundary… so we don’t expect the snow band to be very heavy in nature.  Instead, a period of steady light snow showers are likely.
– 11pm to 2am : Light snow develops
– 2am to 7am : Periods of light snow showers possible
– 6am to 9am : Light snow tapers off
– Hudson Valley: Dusting to an inch (up to 1.5″ in spots)
– Catskills: 1 to 3 inches possible
The timing of this nuisance event will potentially cause issues for the Monday AM commute.  Snow covered roads are possible, creating slick spots and areas of icy travel.  Temps will be below freezing, so the snow should stick, even though it’s likely an inch or less in most places.  You’ll have to go into the Catskills to find elevation enhanced snows above an inch or two.
The snow should taper off around sunrise on Monday… but we anticipate mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers and flurries to continue through the day Monday.  That said, we expect little if any additional accumulation after sunrise on Monday.  We’ll try to have additional commentary once the light snow begins to develop around the region tonight.

Saturday Discussion : Weekend Weather Outlook

A frontal boundary over the eastern US has allowed a disturbance to move through the region on Friday, spreading rainfall through the Hudson Valley.  As of Friday night, we’re in a bit of a lull between the first area of precipitation… and the 2nd batch of rain that will move into the region before dawn on Saturday.
Saturday will start off with showers, that will likely become spotty in nature near mid day.  Clouds will be with us through the afternoon, possibly a peek or two of sun by late in the day.  A very mild day by early January standards, as temps in the afternoon surge into the upper 40s, and possibly low 50s in some areas.
Saturday night we’ll see clouds, with a few spotty rain showers changing to wet snow showers overnight, as colder air rushes in.  But most of the moisture will have exited to our east by the time the cold air comes in.  So there will be no period of snow with the system Saturday night.  Instead… we’ll see a few flakes, partial clearing, and temps just below freezing by dawn on Sunday.
Sunday will be blustery and much colder, with a stiff north wind.  Clouds mix with sunshine, along with a few flurries early.  Highs only in the mid 30s… but wind chills will be mid 20s.  Now that feels much more like early January.
Finally, Sunday night, we’ll track a weak frontal system… almost clipper type system move into the Hudson Valley.  This will likely spread light snow into the region Sunday night into Monday morning.  We’ll have to monitor how this little system develops in the next day or so.  If it plays out as currently projected… it might be a dusting to an inch.
Ultimately, the potential for snow Saturday night was just asking for too many things to come together too quickly.  So it’s a close call… but the pattern is just too mild right now.  We hope everyone gets their weekend off to a great start!

Thursday Discussion : Showers Arrive Tonight

Our mild winter pattern is sending another storm system our way for the end of the work week.  Clouds will gradually increase late on Thursday and into Thursday night.  Highs on Thursday will rise into the mid 40s ahead of the storm.  Then another wave of low pressure rides up along the SE ridge, and spreads rain showers into the Hudson Valley before sunrise, giving us an unsettled Friday around the region.  The good news, is that frozen precipitation will not be an issue for this event.

How this storm moves as it exits the east coast, will determine if moisture will move slowly, allow precipitation to linger into the overnight hours Saturday night.  If that happens, and its appearing like it may… the rain could end as a period of wet snow.  Right now (approximately 72 hours away), computer guidance has no clue on the details of this setup.  Options are all over the map… meaning that the storm could track north and give us all rain; or it could track further south and give us an extended period of wet snow.

We will continue to monitor the development over the next day or two, and let you know if this is a legitimate threat, and something we need to watch.

Wednesday Discussion : Happy New Year #2020

Happy New Year, Hudson Valley!  A rather cold and blustery start to ring in 2020, as the cold front pushed through last night… accompanied by only a few wind gusts and flurries for most of the region.  The squall line died in the Catskills, as it is often found to do.
Clouds will mix with increasing amounts of sunshine as the day progresses… along with a few flurries and mountain snow showers possible.  The big story will be the wind, as we will have winds out of the west/northwest at 10 to 15mph to day, gusting over 20mph.  That will mean afternoon highs in the upper 30s… will feel more like the 20s around the region.  So a true winter time feel around the Hudson Valley… if only for a day or two.
We’ll try to have a discussion soon, looking at the mid to long range outlook… if time permits.  Have a great start to your 2020!

Tuesday Afternoon/Evening Snow Squall Concerns

The final day of 2019 looks relatively uneventful in terms of the weather.  Our rain system exited the region overnight, and the large upper level low pressure is lingering over the Great Lakes, pushing eastward.  That has left us with mainly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40°.
As we move through the afternoon hours… we’ll have temps holding in the upper 30s to low 40s around the region.  Clouds will mix with some breaks of sun, out ahead of a frontal boundary that will swing through later this afternoon and evening.  As it moves through, wind gusts will increase out of the west… and a few snow showers or snow squalls are possible.
Timing: 4pm to 9pm
Concern: localized bursts of snow
Hazard: Rapidly changing conditions possible
– Visibility near zero for a short time
– quick dusting to half inch in some spots
– icy / snow covered roads possible
The futurecast radar from 2pm to 11pm shows the squall line moving from west to east… but the Catskills are notorious for chewing up squall lines, and today won’t be much different.  The squalls over central NY will be heavier and more pronounced.  As they move into the Catskills, the squalls will still pack a punch.  Then once they clear the Catskills into the Hudson Valley, we’ll have to see what’s left.
We do expect that a few of the squalls will make it into the HV, and could cause some locations to have rapidly changing conditions.  Visibility could be fine one minute, and you drive into a wall of snow, dropping visibility down to a few hundred feet in seconds.  Additionally, rapid accumulation of a coating of snow, could cause road conditions to vary over short distances as well.  Keep this in mind if travelling near sunset this evening.  We will try to have additional updates as the squall line approaches

Sunday Ice Storm Discussion : Elevation is Everything

Understandably with the Ice Storm Warnings being issued for Sullivan, W. Ulster, W. Greene, and Delaware counties… some anxiety and concern has arisen among the viewership. This post will seek to help people determine whether or not they need to be on alert, or they can allow their mind to ease a bit.

The concern for an ice storm is primarily for the following zones in the Hudson Valley:
Highest Concern: Zone 1, 2 and 5
Slightly less concern: Zone 4 and 6

The first image, is an image long in the making. We have created an HVW zone map guide so that you everyone can better determine what zone they live in. Each zone has towns/cities listed alphabetically. Not EVERY town will be listed, but everyone should be able to find a town within 5 miles of their location. If your town isn’t in the zones of concern, then you are not expected to see significant icing.

The second image is the latest estimate of ice accumulation from this storm. Chances are, the amounts are a bit aggressive, but you can see the focus of concern is clearly on the Catskills. Zones 1, 2 and 5 have a lot of area above 1,250 feet in elevation… and it is in those areas where the severest icing is possible. The higher elevations of zone 4 and 6 are above 1,000 feet in elevation. Those areas could also see significant and potentially damaging icing. Temperatures are obviously critical… and the difference between 31 and 33 degrees will be the difference between downed trees and power lines… and plain rain.  The possible damage could be severe, especially in places that never get above 32 degrees.

Hopefully the computer guidance is slightly too cold, and more areas end up being above 32 degrees in the Catskills. But we are seeing enough data suggesting a potentially damaging ice event in the high elevations over 1000 feet… that we want to make sure our viewers in those areas are fully prepared. The event begins after 3pm today.

We will have more information as we can share it…