Thursday Discussion : Breezy & Muggy with Rain Tonight

Detailed Forecast: *Flood Watch in Effect for Tonight*
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy… with scattered showers becoming likely… especially in the afternoon. High in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday Night: Cloudy with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Breezy. Low in the upper 50s.
Friday: An early shower… otherwise skies turning partly cloudy. High in the low 70s.
Futurecast Radar & Satellite: 12pm Thursday – 9am Friday
A tropical feel to the air for our Thursday morning, as a strong southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front, pulls warm and humid air into the Hudson Valley. Temps in the 70s, with winds at 5 to 15mph out of the south, and dew points around 70°… all those ingredients combine to make a very tropical feel to the air.
 
Clouds and scattered showers will increase this afternoon, as the line of showers and heavier downpours approach. The chances for a steady rain increase as we get toward sunset, especially west of the Hudson River. The period of steadiest rain is likely to be 6pm to 3am… but the potential for rain will linger into sunrise on Friday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are projected, and for that reason we have a Flood Watch in effect. Areas that get prolonged heavier downpours could see some flooding issues.
 
Friday, conditions should quickly improve as the front passes by, with sunshine and blue skies returning through the morning hours, and temps climbing into the low 70s for highs on Friday. Full details can be found on the website : www.hudsonvalleyweather.com Have a great day!

Wednesday Discussion : Unsettled Ahead of the Storm

A humid and unsettled air mass has returned to the Hudson Valley, out ahead of an approaching storm system over the Ohio Valley. Looking at the mid morning NY state radar loop, you can see a few spotty showers over the Hudson Valley… while the bulk of the showers are found well off to our west, closer to the storm system and cold front.
Over the next 48 hours, the low pressure will struggle to move eastward, due to a large upper level ridge over eastern Canada. The result is going to be multiple days of low clouds, patchy drizzle and spotty showers. Temps along that time will be consistently between the upper 60s and mid 70s due to the low clouds, fog, and spot drizzle. During that time, peeks of sun are likely, but they’ll also be rather limited.
 
Late on Thursday and into Friday… we’ll finally see the front push into our area. This will bring a period of steady, heavier rain to the Hudson Valley. The timing is tricky due to the blocking ridge slowing the front… but it seems like the rain associated with the front should reach our region between 6pm and 12am Thursday night… and should exit the region before noon on Friday. We’ll have to fine tune the timeline as we get closer. But it looks like anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of rain could be possible.
 
More updates to follow as we get closer. Have a great Wednesday afternoon.

Monday Outlook : Gorgeous Start to the Week

After a beautiful weekend across the Hudson Valley, we’ll see the nice weather continue to start the work week.

Mostly sunny skies are likely for Monday, with low humidity, and highs right near average for this time of year… in the mid 70s.  Our flow will gradually shift around Monday, to be out of the southeast.  That will allow more moisture and humidity to move into the Hudson Valley.  As a result, clouds will increase for Tuesday, with a few areas of patchy drizzle possible.  The clouds will be with us for much of Tuesday and Wednesday.  While we don’t expect any notable rainfall Tuesday or Wednesday, both days look to see more clouds than sun… with afternoon temps in the 70s.

Our next big threat for rainfall is a frontal system that will intensify across the Ohio Valley.  Blocking out ahead of that storm will slow it down considerably.  There is some uncertainty about how much the storm will be slowed… but it appears likely that sometime between Thursday and Friday morning, that there is a period of steady, soaking rainfall… as that front pushes through the region.  If you have plans for the 2nd half of the week, you will want to check for updates as we get a better handle on the time table of this storm’s progress.

For now… we hope everyone had a wonderful weekend, and has a great start to the work week!

Friday Discussion : Sunshine Ahead

The cold front of the past 2 days has exited the region, and in its wake, we have some beautiful… almost fall-like weather.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and beautiful. High in the low 70s.
Friday Night: Mainly clear and crisp. Low around 50°.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny skies. High in the mid 70s.
Saturday Night: Mainly clear skies. Not as cool. Low around 60°.
Sunday: Sunshine mixing with increasing afternoon clouds, breezy and warmer. High around 80°.
 
A strong NW wind 10 to 20mph on Friday will bring some cooler and much drier air into the region. A few fair weather clouds along the way, but we’ll stay dry for the next couple days. Friday night looks quite crisp, with temps falling into the low 50s… possibly some upper 40s, especially in the cooler spots.
Saturday we’ll see mostly sunny skies and a diminished wind. Afternoon highs very close to where they should be for this time of year, in the mid 70s. Winds will shift out of the SW late Saturday, and that will keep us warmer Saturday night. By Sunday, the SW breeze will usher warmer air back into our area. Highs on Sunday likely climbing into the low 80s. But at the same time on Sunday, a front from the north will try to drop into the northern parts of our region. That will likely bring some clouds late on Sunday. We’ll have to watch and see if a few showers will accompany those clouds.
 
But for the most part, a beautiful weekend of weather lined up. We hope everyone has a wonderful weekend. And while we will likely have some separate thoughts on Saturday… our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone tomorrow, as we commemorate 20 years since the September 11th, 2001. The day has very deep meaning for many of us, so whatever your plans are for Saturday… we hope your day goes well. Take care of yourselves and each other… and have a nice weekend!

Thursday Discussion – Clouds and Spotty Showers

After a dark and stormy night, that likely had many pets heading under the bed… the thunderstorm activity has moved east of the Hudson Valley for our Thursday. While the storms have cleared out, the progression of the front has stalled considerably, and the result is the clouds and scattered showers associated with the front, still lingering around the region this morning. While earlier guidance suggested the front would clear more quickly… Mother Nature had different ideas. The end result for our Thursday will be lots of clouds, with very limited breaks of sun… and the threat of scattered rain showers through this evening. The further south and east you are in the Hudson Valley (Putnam, Westchester, much of Dutchess County)… you will have the highest potential for scattered rain showers through the day on Thursday.
Thursday AM radar
Looking at the current radar, you can see the steady rain showers over NJ and Long Island. But as these push northeast, a few scattered showers are likely to spread into the Hudson Valley as well. Temps today will likely hold in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tonight, the clouds and showers will finally push east… and skies should clear out after midnight tonight. That should set the stage for a beautiful Friday… with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low to mid 70s. The weekend looks nice as well, with a good deal of sun, and afternoon highs in the 70s.
 
We hope you have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Evening T-Storm Potential

Another beautiful afternoon expected across the region, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, and afternoon highs around 80° in many places. An approaching cold front will spread a line of showers and thunderstorms toward the Hudson Valley from the west later today.
Timing:
– 2pm to 7pm: Isolated pop up showers and storms
– 7pm to 12am: Line of scattered showers and T-Storms.
Impact:
– 15% to 30% chance of damaging wind gusts
– an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out
– Flash Flood watch for Orange, Rockland and Sullivan counties
 
The timing of the front’s arrival is after sunset, which should help reduce the severe weather threat a bit for the Hudson Valley. There is a good amount of vertical shear in the mid levels of the atmosphere, that could help spawn a few strong to severe supercell storms both ahead of and along the cold front. The timing on the pop up storms could be anytime this afternoon or early evening, but the potential is low (less than 30% in any location). The line of T-Storms associated with the front itself arrive close to 7 or 8pm in the Catskills… and 9pm to 11pm in the majority of the Hudson Valley.
The primary concern is wind damage associated with the T-Storms along the front. Wind gusts over 50mph could result in isolated down trees and power lines. Based on the timing and guidance with the computer data, power outages should be rather isolated with this event. But be sure to be alert to the potential this evening. We’ll share any updates as the event unfolds this evening.

Sunday Discussion : Low Clouds and Damp

A soggy Sunday across the Hudson Valley, as several batches of rain showers have pushed through the region this morning.
1:30pm Radar
The current radar shows that the organized batches of rain showers have pushed east of us, but you can see that the regional radar shows a general unsettled look to the radar, with patchy showers and spotty drizzle lingering around the region. So expect mostly cloudy skies with a spotty shower possible this afternoon. Temps will hold generally between 65° and 70° for most places… and the Catskills will hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
 
Tonight, as the front pushes through, a period of showers and thundershowers are possible near midnight… otherwise variable clouds tonight with lows in the low 60s. Then our Labor Day Monday looks great! Mostly sunny skies with a few fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s with low humidity… should make for a wonderful day with great outdoor weather. The latest forecast ideas are always available at www.hudsonvalleyweather.com, and the website is very mobile friendly. Our HVW app is currently offline, and we’re hoping to have it back up in the coming months. We’ll keep you updated.
Have a great Afternoon!

Saturday Discussion: Labor Day Weather

Mostly Sunny for our Saturday across the region. A beautiful September feel to the air, with low humidity and afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a cold front that will bring clouds and a few scattered showers for Sunday. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s… and highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to near 70°.

Sunday night, the front pushes through with some scattered showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder. Then on Monday winds shift back out of the WNW and clouds will mix with sunshine, as afternoon highs climb into the mid and upper 70s. A decent Labor Day weather weekend shaping up, with a few scattered showers to contend with on Sunday… but certainly by no means a wash out. Hopefully everyone has a wonderful start, to what we hope will be a wonderful weekend.

Wednesday Morning Discussion : Flood Concerns Continue

Mid Morning Storm Discussion
Summary:
– Steady, soaking rain for the next 18 hours
– Heaviest rain and wind expected 6pm to 2am
– Street flooding and Flash Flooding is a big concern
– Rainfall totals 3 to 6 inches likely region wide (locally 8″+)
– Wind gusts 25mph to 40mph possible (6pm to 2am)
– Rainfall tapers off well after midnight
 
Good Morning Hudson Valley! We hope everyone is staying dry on this soaker of a Wednesday. A very soggy 1st day of school for many kids today… so despite the rain, we want to wish the best of luck to all the children, and especially the teachers… as a new year gets underway this week.
10am Radar Loop

Weather wise… we wish we had better news, but today is going to be a challenging day in terms of rainfall. A look at the 10:00am radar loop, and you can see an endless firehose of moisture streaming northeastward toward the Hudson Valley. The east coast frontal trough is interacting with Ida, and spreading copious amounts of moisture well in advance of the center of circulation… which is still in southern West Virginia at this hour.
 
As we go through the afternoon expect periods of soaking rain to continue. There won’t be any breaks in the rain, it should fall steadily through the entire day. The exception could be well south of I-84… where a dry slot (similar to a winter storm) could advance northward ahead of the remnants of Ida, and temporarily shut off the precipitation.
The worst of the storm is expected to be tonight, between 6pm and 2am. The projected strong vertical motion in the atmosphere will enhance the rainfall rates, to the heaviest point of the storm. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible at times under the heaviest bands. In addition, guidance continues to warn us of some pretty strong wind gusts associated with these heavy bands of rain. Wind gusts between 25 and 35mph… even a gust to 40mph can’t be ruled out, as the center of circulation of the remains of Ida pass by to our south. 
It is at this time (6pm to 2am), where the greatest threat for flooding and our concern for some sporadic power outages could unfold. The combination of heavy rain and wind, on top of saturated soil, could make trees a bit more susceptible to the wind gusts.
 
We will continue to monitor the situation, and share updates through the day. A very stormy start to September… as Ida passes through. Have a nice day!

Tuesday Discussion : Watching for Ida’s Rains

Remnants of Hurricane Ida Heading for the Hudson Valley
– Flood Watch in effect for Wed PM – Thur PM
– Rain beings mid day Wednesday, heaviest late Wed night
– Rainfall amounts 2 to 5 inches possible, locally higher amounts
Futurecast Radar : 8am Wednesday to 8am Thursday
While the damage out of southern Louisiana and the New Orleans area is still being assessed, our focus now turns to the remnants of Hurricane Ida. As of Monday night, Ida is now a tropical depression with max winds of 35mph. Ida is in the process of getting captured by an east coast trough which will help pull the tropical moisture northeastward, out ahead of the storm center, and possibly into the Hudson Valley.
 
Current guidance is represented by the futurecast radar image shown here. You can see scattered rain showers pushing into the Hudson Valley around mid day on Wednesday. Periods of light to moderate rain seem possible through the afternoon hours Wednesday into the evening hours. Wednesday night, as the center of circulation approaches the east coast, that’s when the heaviest rain is likely. The tropical moisture could produce flash flooding rainfall rates Wednesday night into Thursday morning… before exiting to the east Thursday morning.
The key to the forecast will be the position of the trough. Based on the current guidance… the lower half of the Hudson Valley is expected to see heavier rainfall than the northern Hudson Valley. That’s why the Flash Flood Watch excludes Greene and Columbia counties right now. If the trough is a little further north, the entire Hudson Valley could see the potential for flooding rains… conversely, if the trough is a little further south, the heaviest rains could be suppressed south of the Hudson Valley. However for now… it appears that some heavy rain is likely late Wednesday night, especially from the Mid Hudson Valley on south.