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Tuesday Discussion: Icy Start, then Turning Milder

The Radar has quieted down this morning, as what little precipitation we had, has moved east of our area.  In the wake, we have a slight coating in spots… possibly up to a quarter to half inch in other spots… of snow and sleet on the ground.  Temps are near or just below freezing, and we do have some school delays around the region as well, so make sure to check for your local district.

Conditions will rapidly improve this morning, with temperatures climbing above freezing by mid morning, and near 40 by lunch.  The threat for scattered rain showers will be with us through the day, but a mainly cloudy… milder afternoon appears likely for the Hudson Valley.  Take it easy startling out this morning… have a great day!!

Monday Discussion : Cold Blast w/ PM Threat of Snow

After some mild air this weekend, Monday will feature a blast of cold air for at least a day.  NW winds have gradually pushed the mild Pacific air out of the Hudson Valley.  So for a day, temps will struggle to reach the 32° mark.  So with temps holding in the upper 20s all day… the conditions will be present for some late day headaches.

– Weak band of snow possible, per some computer guidance
– Timing of snow is critical… projected between 5pm and 7pm
– Quick dusting possible, temps below freezing, slick spots can’t be ruled out

You can see on this simulation for 6pm on Monday, that a short burst of snow can’t be ruled out.  It doesn’t look too potent, but the timing couldn’t be worse.  We could be seeing some reduced visibility, with slick spots due to accumulating snow.  But we’ll have to see if this band actually holds together, or if it falls apart before reaching the Hudson Valley.  These things are tricky, and we’ll have to monitor it on Monday afternoon.

Then once the initial warm front pushes past… we are likely to have a 2nd band of snow develop after midnight.  That band pushes through the Hudson Valley by sunrise on Tuesday, but could mix with sleet and freezing drizzle.  A potentially icy Tuesday AM commute is possible with a dusting to an inch of snow, and a glaze of ice on top.  We’ll have to see what this means for possible delays Tuesday morning… but temps will QUICKLY warm above freezing Tuesday morning, and by 9 or 10am, we should be in the upper 30s to low 40s, melting whatever does fall.

We’ll have updates on Monday as the event gets closer.  Have a great day!

Sunday Discussion: Where is the Cold?

The northwest wind is building this afternoon, but noticeably, the air is not that cold.  Temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s… with a strong NW wind, in January.  This may not jump out as odd to many people… but it’s not something you see too often.  This is the result of a zonal flow, with a Pacific air mass in place of over much of the US.  Typically I’m wary January, a NW wind will translate into falling temps and wind chills in the 20s (or worse).  But there just isn’t any real cold, Arctic air over North America at this point.

So we’ll have clouds mixed with sun this afternoon, along with scattered rain and wet snow showers.  We should have some wet snow mixing in as what little colder air exists, begins to settle into the region.  The scattered showers are a product of chilly air moving over the relatively warm Great Lakes… and generating Lake Effect rain and wet snow showers.  So make sure you’re ready for a brief rain delay this afternoon.  Temps will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations, slowly falling this afternoon.

Next chance for wintry weather is Monday evening and night… as we see some moisture move into the marginally colder air.  The moisture appears rather limited, but some slick spots could be an issue Monday night and Tuesday morning.  More on that a little later.

Have a great Sunday afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : Scattered Showers All Day

Normally this time of year, this type of storm system would translate into a snow event.  However, with a zonal flow across the United States, temperatures at the middle layers of the atmosphere are well above freezing.  So instead of snow… this will be a wet Saturday across region.

Futurecast Radar : Through Saturday 8pm

Scattered showers will be with us through the day on Saturday, as the storm system passes by just to our south.  It will be rather raw… and chilly, with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Typically this time of year, this storm track would result in a snowstorm… however there is no cold air to be found, at any layer of the atmosphere… so a storm more typical of late October or early November will be the result.  Total rainfall amounts will be around a half inch on average… so it’s not a heavy rainfall… just a persistent light rain…

We’ve been strapped for time, but are looking to do a rainfall recap for 2018 and a look forward at the next several days and weeks.  Hopefully we can get that together at some point this weekend.  Stay dry, Hudson Valley.

Friday Discussion : Mild with Rain on the Way

High clouds across the region are filtering the sunshine on this first Friday of 2019. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40s this afternoon for highs, which is roughly 10 degrees above average. We’ll track some rain heading our way late tonight, and into Saturday morning… that could see a few icy spots in the colder northern valleys. But for most of us, we’ll see light rain showers after midnight… lasting into our Saturday morning.
A soggy Saturday is expected, as a coastal low pressure takes over, and slowly moves out to sea. Anyone with plans on Saturday, rain will also be a part of your plans. Another half inch to an inch of rain seems likely, so 2019 will pick up right where 2018 left off.
TGIF… hope everyone has a great afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion : Chilly Mix of Clouds and Sun

Happy New Year, Hudson Valley!
We’ve got clouds mixing with sunshine to start our Wednesday, and temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30° as of mid morning. Moving through the day… expect the mix of clouds and sunshine to continue… and afternoon highs in the mid 30s.

Clouds will increase tonight, as the Hudson Valley gets sandwiched between two weak systems. The result will be some light snow showers tonight, especially near midnight… likely tapering off by sunrise. On average, it looks like a dusting to a half inch should do it for our region. The bulk of the snow is likely to stay to our north… but we’ll watch to see if a bit more moisture might make its way into the HV.

Then behind the disturbance, temperatures will moderate once again on Thursday… with temps climbing into the low and mid 40s for highs.

We hope your Wednesday is a good one… and that your 2019 gets off to a great start!

Tuesday Outlook : Gusty New Year

* LOCATION… The Entire Hudson Valley.
* WINDS… West 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
* TIMING… Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
* IMPACTS… Strong winds may knock down large tree limbs and a few trees as well. Isolated power outages are possible.
A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph.  Winds this strong are capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution

Monday Discussion : 2018 Ends With Rain… Fittingly

How else do you end what has been an unbelievably wet year for our region? Another rain storm!!

First image is a simulated radar at around midnight, heavy rain and the ball should be falling at the same time, second image is total rainfall from this system which looks to be between 1”-1.5” of rain region wide.

The exception as always will be the terrain enhancement favored location in the Catskills where up to 3” of rain may fall. We will also end December with barely any snowfall across the region, despite our fast start with November’s snow storm. Keep in mind we are only about 10 days in to official winter. We are constantly monitoring the long term guidance, changes in the atmosphere and jet stream in order to determine whether or not winter is evolving towards our winter outlook projections or away from it, so far we have no concerns at this time.

Keep in mind, long range forecasting is about 5% posting model images that are 7-10 days out, and 95% science and upstream atmospheric research, analog comparisons, monitoring sea surface temps, and a plethora of other really nerdy stuff that goes on behind the scenes. We had called for a milder Dec in our long range, we have the bulk of the cold and snow occurring from early/mid Jan through to early March.

We hope everyone has a safe New Years Eve, wet roads and people having a good time isn’t the best combo so be careful! Thank you for all the wonderful support in 2018, every advertisers who makes this possible, every fan the follows us, everyone who’s hit the donate tab on the website, we look forward to another year of keeping you all ahead of the weather and not “dropping the ball” to often.

Sunday Outlook: AM Snow Showers, PM Sun

A small area of snow showers has really enhanced over the western HV sand Catskills this morning.  Parts of the area have already seen a coating of snow, while the eastern HV has just seen a few scattered flurries and snow showers.

This weak disturbance was part of the forecast, but the enhancement over the Catskills and western HV is a bit more than anticipated.  None the less, this event will be short lived, falling apart as it exits to the east between 8 and 10am.  

On radar, you can see the light snow focused over the western HV and Catskills.  This has been the case over the last hour, and these snow showers are weakening as they push east.

The snowfall projected by our best computer guidance suggests the coating to a half inch amounts will be focused west of the Hudson River.  Most areas will only see a coating, it’s not until you go into the Catskills where you may find a localized half inch to 1 inch.

The roads in areas where the light snow is steadily falling could be snow covered and icy.  Temps are in the upper 20s in these areas, so snow is accumulating on all surfaces.  Make sure you take it a little slow this morning.  The snow will end by 10am, and the sun will mix in… melting anything that falls by mid afternoon.  Afternoon highs will push near 40 degrees.

Friday Outlook : Warming up with Showers

The clouds are thickening across the region this evening, and we’re watching the moisture work its way toward the Hudson Valley. 
Some freezing drizzle is possible at the onset of the moisture (between 12am and 3am).  But we have southerly winds setting up, and most of the Hudson Valley will remain above freezing… or quickly rise above freezing overnight.  There is a “winter weather advisory” in effect for the upper Hudson Valley and Catskills… where temps could will hover near freezing a bit longer.  Watch for a few icy spots overnight north of Kingston and in the Catskills.
By morning, temperatures are expected to be above freezing region wide… near 40° in parts of the valley.  That means a plain cold rain for the AM commute.  We still need to watch for a few slick spots before sunrise, but the commute should be mainly wet across the region.  Temps rise into the 40s and low 50s by late on Friday, so a pretty good warm up is on the way for Friday afternoon.