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Wednesday PM Discussion : Unsettled Afternoon Showers

The humid, unsettled weather pattern continues across the region, with the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. You can see on the latest radar loop, we’ve got a lot of unsettled weather across the heart of the Hudson Valley… so let’s discuss.

3pm Radar Loop

There were 2 separate clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are expanding to become one large, disorganized area of rain and thundershowers. As you get closer to the capital district, near Albany, the showers and thunderstorms are heavier and better organized. As you head further south, near Middletown and Newburgh, the showers are light and weak, and struggling to hold together as they track east.

WHAT TO EXPECT?
As we move through the rest of the afternoon, and toward the evening commute, we should begin to see these showers and storms push east of the Hudson Valley. Computer guidance is not impressed with these showers and storms, and suggests that severe weather is not much of a concern. We’ll continue to monitor the situation.

Have a nice afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Hot and Sweaty Sauna

There is no escaping the heat, Hudson Valley.  The humidity will be thick today, and temperatures will climb back near 90°.  The result will be very uncomfortable conditions, as well as stagnant air that will create respiratory distress…

The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire afternoon across the region.  That’s due to anticipated heat index values between 95° and 100°.  Make sure you use reasonable caution during outdoor activities today.  Take breaks, stay hydrated… and make sure you check on those who may need assistance.

As the afternoon progresses, our eyes will turn to the radar, as we could see a couple T-Storms pop up during the afternoon… especially in the Catskills and northern HV.

Futurecast Radar : 8am Tue to 2am Wed

You’ll notice that the majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity is focused north of I-84, and especially up into the Catskills and northern HV.  Any time after 2 or 3pm, these storms could develop and push from west to east across the northern half of the Hudson Valley.  A severe storm can’t be ruled out (with potentially damaging wind gusts), but most of these storms will see the main concern be heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning.

We’ll try to share radar images on social media as things unfold later today.  But the heat and humidity will be with us through the next couple days… before hopefully easing up as we approach the weekend.

Have a nice afternoon!

Sunday Discussion : The Heat is On

We’re going from tropical style rains… to tropical style heat across the Hudson Valley, this weekend.  We start with the heavy rainfall over the past several days.  You can see, it focused quite squarely on the Hudson Valley…

Widespread rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches across the region… with some locally higher amounts, especially in the higher elevations.  This was all a part of a pattern that kept the Hudson Valley unsettled for much of the last week… pretty much ever since we turned the calendar to August.  So only 4 days into the month… and we’re already seeing some areas near the average rainfall for the entire month.  The drought concerns of a month ago, are only a distant memory now.

But we now go from soaker, to sauna.  A SW flow will usher in rather hot temperatures to the Hudson Valley, as highs on Sunday are expected to be near or just above 90°.  When you factor in the high humidity… dew points in the upper 60s to near 70°… we’re going to see ‘real feel’ heat index values in the mid 90s for many parts of the region…

As a result, the valley portions of the region are under a “Heat Advisory” due to the combination of heat and humidity on Sunday.  Make sure you take it easy outside, as heat exhaustion can set in if you don’t take frequent breaks from strenuous activity, or don’t stay properly hydrated.

This heat likely carries us into the first half of the work week as well, so remember… it is summer time, and the same humidity that helped bring us soaking rains, can now make for uncomfortable and potentially dangerously hot and humid conditions.  Be safe, and have a great Sunday.

Saturday Discussion : Rain Exits, Steamy Afternoon

We’ve seen a lot of rain across the region over the past 72 hours… and when we look at the last few weeks, it’s been like a tropical rain forest.  Saturday will start out with more of the same, with periods of moderate to heavy rain, even a thunderstorm possible.

Futurecast Radar: 1am to 9pm Saturday

Periods of rain are expected into the early and mid morning hours on Saturday, before the rain exits to our east by mid day.  Before the rain exits, it appears that we could see upwards of another 1 to 2 inches in spots.

That means we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential for flash flooding during the early morning.  However, as the day progresses, we’ll see the rain exit the region.  If you notice the simulated radar, the rain seems to exit between 9am and 12pm, from west to east.  That will likely mean drying out for the afternoon hours, and good news for outdoor events.

But with the rain exiting, we could see breaks of sun.  That will allow the heat to build, and with the humidity rather high in the wake of the rain… we are likely looking at a steamy afternoon for our Saturday.

These are your projected highs, and with humidity, it could feel even hotter than this (near 90°).  So considering that many were likely considering Saturday as a rainout… this could be a pleasant surprise for those with outdoor plans.  We hope you are able to enjoy and take advantage of this.  Either way… we hope you have a great Saturday!

Thursday Discussion : Muggy and Unsettled

After a Wednesday that was a bit more buzz worthy than expected, we’ll see unsettled conditions continue into Thursday, and straight into the weekend.  We expected Wednesday to be relatively benign, with periods of showers and localized downpours.  But a flood of concern came our way about the potential for severe weather and tornados.  We discovered the National Weather Service placed us in a “slight risk” for severe weather, due to elevated shear and approaching warm front.

NWS Severe Potential from Wednesday

To be honest, we did not factor this into our forecast, because we anticipated the morning clouds and rain across the Hudson Valley would stabilize the atmosphere enough that the afternoon severe threat would not materialize.  In addition, we perceived the threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be further to our west (near Binghamton and Scranton, PA), not focused over the Hudson Valley.  However, had we been wrong, and the clouds exited early… we would have seen the atmosphere become much more unstable, and we would have had a much better chance for severe weather to occur.  So we were a bit surprised by the buzz on social media Wednesday morning, mostly because of how we were approaching the forecast.  That said, the National Weather Service was absolutely correct with their concerns, for all the right reasons.  It’s just that with this weather pattern, there are so many factors to consider when generating the forecast.  Hopefully that explains why our forecast was one thing, while you may have heard something different on social media.

So looking to Thursday, it’s more of the same.  We’ll see warm and muggy conditions across the region, with high dew points and temps a few degrees on either side of 80°.  The moist atmosphere will lead to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered about the region.

Futurecast Radar 2am to 8pm

So you can see the futurecast radar is not that active on Thursday afternoon.  We do expect to see pop up showers and thunderstorms develop any time after noon… but they don’t appear to be widespread and too numerous.  Just enough so that we’ll all have to be on guard during the afternoon hours, and into the evening.  We also can’t rule out that one or two of the storms won’t be severe warned, with the potential for some strong, possibly damaging wind gusts.  But once again… this would be the exception, rather than the rule.

The unsettled weather will carry into Friday, with similar conditions expected… before we see more widespread showers and storms Friday night into Saturday AM… when things should hopefully, begin to quiet down.  But this pattern is unpredictable, so we’ll have to wait until we get closer to Saturday to see if we might see some afternoon sun.

Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday PM Discussion : Building Instability

As we look at the early afternoon radar, you can see we have some areas of moderate to heavy rain pushing east of the Hudson River, and up into the northern Hudson Valley.

Regional Radar Loop as of 2:30pm

Behind the rainfall, we’re seeing conditions dry out, and breaks of sunshine developing. This is allowing temperatures to climb into the low and mid 80s… along with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will add some instability to the atmosphere, and we could see additional T-storm cells develop later this afternoon. As we watch the shear increase across the mid levels, the heat and humidity could fuel a few strong to severe storms across the region. With that said, guidance is not seeing this as a major threat… however, we’ll keep our eye on things.

One thing this is not… is a large scale severe weather event. Most of us will remain unsettled, very warm and muggy… with a mix of clouds and sunshine heading into the evening. A few scattered showers and localized downpours are possible… even a couple strong to severe T-storms cannot be ruled out. We’ll continue to monitor the situation, and pass along updates as necessary. Have a great afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion: Unsettled Weather Ahead

As we close out the month of July, we’ve seen a tale of 2 months.  The first half of the month featured heat and humidity… with very little rainfall for most locations.  That resulted in many inquiries about drought conditions, and even worries that wells may begin to dry up.  Over the last week to 10 days, the pattern has flipped 180°, and especially in the last week… any concerns of a drought have been washed away.

A week straight of very unsettled weather, and multiple rounds of rain and downpours… provided the Hudson Valley with a widespread 3 to 6 inches of rain.  Then we finally dried out over the weekend, and had about 48 hours of dry and comfortable weather.

That begins to change once again on Tuesday, as we’ll see a SE flow usher in clouds and unsettled conditions.  Tuesday looks mainly dry, until after dark, where we’ll begin to see the threat for scattered showers and drizzle.  That threat will extend for several days, and likely carry us straight into the weekend.  That means multiple days of warm and muggy conditions, thanks to high dew points around 70°.  The humidity and instability will lead to unpredictable chances for rain showers and even a few thunderstorms.  So making long range plans will be quite difficult, as the exact timing of rain showers will be uncertain beyond 12 to 18 hours.  The best we’ll be able to do for now, is say that scattered showers are possible on any given day.

So you can see, another several days of unsettled weather, and numerous chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms… and possibly another 1 to 3 inches of rain, over 4 to 5 days.

So for anyone with plans through Saturday, you’ll want to watch the details of the forecast closely, because the details will likely change as we go.  Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Afternoon Discussion : Dodging Showers

Clouds have thickened across the Hudson Valley today, as we track a weak coastal storm tries to develop along a stalled boundary to our south.  Originally, this disturbance was expected to stay far enough south, that the clouds would be mixed with lots of sunshine.  As it turns out, a good deal of cloudiness has moved in… and we even have a few showers off to our south and west that may try to push into the Hudson Valley before sunset…

5pm Radar Loop

You can see the shower activity off to the west, that is holding together for now.  That could dampen things near sunset into the Hudson Valley… in the form of a few spotty rain showers.  However, it’s expected to remain mainly dry across our area… with most of what you see on radar dissipating before reaching our area.

Tuesday then looks mainly cloudy, but mainly dry as well… with a spot sprinkle possible.  It’s not until Tuesday night and Wednesday that we will see increasing scattered showers and thundershowers across the region.  We’ll have more details tonight, as we look at what the next few days have in store for us.

Have a nice evening!

Friday Discussion : Late Day and Evening Storms

Our Friday is looking quite nice and summer-like for the most part.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies for the first half of the day, with some increasing summer heat.  A SW flow will help pull heat and humidity into the Hudson Valley, bringing our temps into the mid and upper 80s for most of the region… and with dew points between 65° and 70°, it will feel like near 90° in parts of the valley Friday afternoon.

But we anticipate a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day, just off to our west.  Those storms will move eastward toward evening… and could bring an unsettled evening commute for the Hudson Valley.  We’ll have to watch the timing, but scattered T-Storms could be possible, just in time for the 4pm to 7pm evening commute.  Scattered showers will then be with us through midnight, before clearing out by sunrise on Saturday.

We’ll try to share updates on social media, as the storms begin to develop.  Or you can track the storms here, on our website.  Have a nice Friday everyone!

Wednesday Evening Discussion: Flood Concerns Growing

We’re growing increasingly concerned about the potential for flash flooding across the Hudson Valley, as we see a band of moderate to heavy rain setting up across the central Hudson Valley… with a lot more rain beginning to build to our south.
Current Radar Loop: 3:30pm – 4:40pm
 
First, our immediate concern is the band of rainfall that is ‘training’ over central Orange County. ‘Training’ is a weather term used to describe a band of precipitation that continues to move over the same area, creating an extended period of heavy rainfall, and increasing the potential for flash flooding. We’re seeing that occur roughly just west of I-87, from near Tuxedo, and running all the way up to Newburgh. This band is moving NNE, and basically running over the same area. If this continues for much longer, we could see extreme rainfall amounts, and the potential for major flooding. If you are in this area, please pay careful attention to local advisories, and remember… “TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.” If you do not know how deep water is on roadways, do not attempt to cross it.
 
Looking further south, you can see the radar beginning to fill in over NJ. This is projected to continue, and that rain is moving our way. Guidance suggests that the rainfall rates will increase over a large portion of the Hudson Valley tonight, and that means the concerns for Flash Flooding will also increase over a larger area.
Futurecast Radar: 2pm Wed – 8am Thu
We will be tracking the situation this evening, so please check for additional updates as the evening progresses. Be safe this evening, Hudson Valley.