Tuesday Discussion : Winter Slaps Back

We’re at the point in the season where the seasons battle each other repeatedly.  The clashing air masses leads to a wide variety of weather, and in some cases, we see severe weather like we saw on Sunday evening.  Now that the mild air mass has been pushed out of the region, strong NW winds have been ushering in more seasonable air into the region….

In the morning on Tuesday, with a strong WNW wind, it’s possible that scattered wet snow showers and flurries make their way all the way to the valley areas.  With afternoon wind chills projected above in the upper 30s and low 40s, conditions will feel very much like winter around the valley.  So don’t be surprised if we see a few snow flakes around the region…. mixed with rain near the Hudson Valley.

The cold will hold on for the next few days, with highs on Wednesday not climbing out of the 30s.  The winds will slowly shift around to the South by the end of the week, which sets up a milder weekend around the region, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected.  For now, bundle up and enjoy your Tuesday.

Monday Discussion : Return to the Chill

On Sunday, we saw what the clashing of seasons is capable of.  A sharp cold front pushing into a mild air mass, generated strong, locally damaging wind gusts.  We even tracked a likely tornado across eastern Putnam County, into Connecticut.  With the front now passed east of the region, we’ll see a more blustery feel to our Monday around the Hudson Valley.

Sunshine and blustery winds will be with us through the day.  Highs will struggle into the mid and upper 40s.  Winds at 10 to 15mph, will make it feel like the 30s for much of the day.  The chilly conditions will be with us through the start of the week, as chilly air invades the northeast.  Winds will shift as we reach the end of the week, and we should see temps moderate a bit by the weekend.  But after a very warm start to the month of November… a chilly week likely lies ahead.

Have a great start to your week!

Sunday Afternoon Discussion : Tracking the Showers

Radar Loop : 1pm to 2pm Sunday

You can see on the radar loop, that the shower activity we’ve been waiting for, is approaching the region from the west. The first round of showers should arrive between 3pm and 6pm from west to east. Showers during that time should be rather light and spotty. The line of showers furthest west near Pittsburgh is the line that we’re anticipating to strengthen this afternoon, and bring a chance of downpours, possibly some rumbles of thunder, and strong wind gusts. The timing looks to be between 6pm and 9pm from west to east across the Hudson Valley… so we will keep our eyes on this as we go through the afternoon.

Saturday Discussion : Chilly Sunshine

We’ve had a rough week of tech issues, where the website has been down for days, and getting it back up and running has been a considerable challenge.  Despite several things still being quirky and glitchy… we’re mostly operational once again.  Thanks for your patience and understanding.

In terms of our Saturday afternoon around the Hudson Valley, we’ve finally got sunshine back in the picture, which is a welcome sight.  Our winds are out of the north, which has brought a seasonable chill back into the valley, after many days of above average temperatures over the past week or two.  The first 13 days of November have been a blowtorch across the eastern half of the country.

We discussed in late October, that this massive ridge over the eastern US would result in very mild temperatures, and so this map is not the least bit surprising.  After our first wet snow flakes of the season just before Halloween… any sign of winter has been wiped off the map.  We’ll have to see if that changes for the 2nd half of November, as the jet stream finally begins to shift around a little, which should give us some chances at colder air.

Our next shot of rain comes on Sunday afternoon, as an approaching cold front brings with it, the chance of rain showers.  A sharp squall line of heavy down pours and gusty winds seem possible toward evening on Sunday, with the passage of the cold front.  We’ll have to keep an eye on that as it approaches.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm to 11pm Sunday

You can see on the futurecast, that this squall line looks very potent.  Thunder and lightning, strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts and heavy downpours are possible… the timing looks to be 5pm to 8pm… but we will continue to monitor as we head into Sunday.

For now… try and enjoy some great late fall weather!  Happy Saturday, Hudson Valley!

Friday Discussion : Fabulous Fall Pattern

Last weekend we had our first snowflakes of the season around the Hudson Valley.  Some areas had a wet snow accumulation just 7 days ago, and the weekend temperatures were quite a bit below average.  This weekend, will be just about the polar opposite of that.

A large east coast high pressure will allow for very mild air to push into the valley.  The projected temperatures above give you an idea of what we expect to be on our plate for this weekend.  Both Saturday and Sunday look very similar.  As long as the WSW flow persists, the above average temperatures will also persist.  For now, the warmth appears likely to last through at least early to mid week next week… but could hold on a bit longer.  Along with the warmth, will come lots of sunshine and blue skies.

Not much else to say in a pattern like this, other than ‘get out there and enjoy it!’.  We know we will.  Have a great weekend!

Monday Discussion : Howling Winds and Wintry Chill

After a taste of winter on Friday, we’re going to have another preview on Monday around the Hudson Valley.  Late on Sunday, a cold front with rain showers pushed through the region, in the wake, are howling NW winds.  Those NW winds are pushing much colder air back into the region for our Monday.

NW winds will blow at 10 to 20mph, gusting over 30mph at times.  These cold winds will rush over the Great Lakes, and generate lake effect snow showers and flurries across parts of the region on Monday morning.  Especially in the Catskills, where an accumulating coating to an inch or two can’t be ruled on on Monday.  In the valley… it’s more likely that we just see some flurries or a brief snow squall with little to no accumulation.

But the other big story of the winds… will be the wind chills.  Highs on Tuesday may be close to 40°, but it will never feel that warm.

Strong winds out of the northwest will make it feel like the 20s for most locations, and possibly even the teens for our higher elevations.  Some potent chill for the beginning of November.  Make sure you bundle up properly on Monday, because the chill will definitely be felt around the valley.  Tuesday will have a similar chill, with a chance of early morning snow showers… before the sun returns for Tuesday afternoon, and temps again in the 40s.  But again, because of the winds… wind chills will be in the 30s all day on Tuesday as well.

The next few days….

As we move through the week, we’ll see things begin to change.  Temps will moderate, as winds turn out of the southwest on Wednesday.  Southwest winds will pull highs on Wednesday back into the 50s, which will feel much milder, after the wintry winds of Monday and Tuesday morning.  The SW winds will continue through the 2nd half of the week, making for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s before the end of the work week… something to look forward to.

We hope everyone has a great start to the week.

Friday Discussion : First Taste of Winter?

Good evening, Hudson Valley. The Thursday afternoon data and evening data is in, and we have no changes at all from our previous ideas and discussions. A quick recap:
Timeline:
– Rain showers continue into the night
– Rain changes to wet snow in Catskills between 2am and 5am
– Rain changes to wet snow north of I-84 between 4am and 8am
– Rain mixes/changes to wet snow south of I-84 between 5am and 9am
– Wet snow (mixed with rain) tapers off between 9am and 12pm
Accumulations:
– Valley (below 800ft) – slushy coating to 1 inch on grass possible
– Hill towns (800ft – 1500ft) – slushy coating to 2″ possible on grass
– Catskills & elevations above 1500ft – 2 to 4 inches possible
Winter Storm Video Discussion : 11 minute forecast discussion posted on Facebook
It’s all going to come down to the temperatures. How cold does it get, and is it cold enough for the wet snow to accumulate. The coldest guidance has Poughkeepsie falling to 35°. In general, it looks like 33° to 37° will be where much of the valley bottoms out, and as such… a slushy coating to an inch on grass would be the best we would expect. As you go up in elevation, the story changes… where temps could reach 32°, and an inch or two is possible. The Catskills and areas above 1500 feet will stand the best chance for accumulating snow… 1 to 3… maybe 4 inches of snow are possible in the Catskills, and we could see some slick roads… so use extra caution if you’re travelling in the morning.
We’ll have updates in the morning, as we see if we can get some pre-Halloween snowflakes around the region. Have a good night Hudson Valley.

Thursday Discussion : Soaker Ending as Slush?

The remnants of Hurricane Zeta will push into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, and that will translate into a soaking rainfall all across the Hudson Valley…

Futurecast Radar : 6am to 8pm Thursday

Rain will develop around sunrise, and become steady and moderate around the valley.  Lasting through sunset in most areas.  Showers will continue into the night, as the colder air works into the region.  In terms of total rainfall, this is a rough estimate of the 1 to 2 inches of rain that we could see…

Soaker to Slushy??

The question of the day for certain, as a very complex setup unfolds over the region.  Please check out our Winter Storm Discussion Live Stream from Wednesday night.  It goes into considerable detail on exactly how the situation should play out.  The short version of what we anticipate…

  • 12am to 4am : Rain showers mix with snow in valley… wet snow above 1500 feet
  • 4am to 7am : Rain changes to wet snow in the valley … snow above 1500 feet
  • 7am to 12pm : Wet snow (mixed with rain south of I-84)… snow tapers off from NW to SE

Futurecast Radar : 2am to 2pm Friday

You see on this simulation, a fairly good representation of how we think things will play out.  The upper level low pressure rapidly deepens off the coast, and a band of precipitation deepens and intensifies over the Hudson Valley for a short time, in the form of wet snow.  We think temperatures will stay above freezing, which will keep any accumulations to the grassy areas… unless you go above 1500 feet and up into the Catskills.  That is where we could see a couple slushy inches, mainly in the Catskills and higher elevations.  But even in the valley, if the wet snow falls steadily, we could see a slushy coating on the grass in the valley areas.  We’ll have to see how things unfold as we get closer.  Like we say, check out the video for more context.

It’s late October, and we’re still working on the winter outlook… but here comes winter, trying to make an early guest appearance before Halloween.  Let’s see how it plays out.  Have a great Thursday!

Wednesday Discussion : Is The Friday Snow Threat Real?

For the last 2 to 3 days, we’ve been silently monitoring the computer guidance.  Tropical Storm Zeta is moving north in the Gulf of Mexico, and should make landfall in Louisiana late on Wednesday.  That’s when the magic of late fall weather kicks in, and could give us a pre-Halloween surprise.

Futurecast Weather Map : Thursday Morning – Friday PM

It’s a complex setup, which we go into a bit more detail on a Fireside Chat on the HVW Facebook Page.  In short, there are 2 features, or areas of low pressure.  The first is the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta.  That pushes northeast on Thursday, spreading rain into the region.  As that system moves out to sea Thursday evening, a second area of low pressure, an upper level low, reaches the east coast and intensifies.  That could cause a 2nd band of moisture to intensify over the northeast.  If the approaching cold air pushes in fast enough… a period of snow is very much a possibility.

Timeline:
– Thu AM through Thu 8pm : Periods of light to moderate rain
– 8pm Thu – 3am Fri : Rain showers mix with wet snow… wet snow in higher elevations
– 3am to 9am : Rain changes to wet snow from north to south
– 9am to 1pm : Wet snow tapers off

When we talk about the potential for accumulations… it’s a bit early to get to that.  We’re not fully convinced that the 2nd piece of energy, the 2nd low pressure… has enough cold air, energy and moisture to spread accumulating snow into the Hudson Valley.  Up to 3 or 4 slushy inches can’t be ruled out… especially as you go up in elevation.  A lot of interesting factors, and the details will determine exactly how this storm unfolds, and what we see.  More updates on Wednesday, as we get more information.

Have a great Wednesday!

Monday Discussion : Unsettled Start to the Week

As we head into the last week of October, we’ve got another unsettled day to start the work week.

Mainly cloudy skies with patchy areas of showers and drizzle are expected through the day Monday.  This will hold temperatures down in the 40s and low 50s.  A rather chilly and raw day by most standards.  The shower threat will persist into the evening hours, before tapering off overnight.  For Tuesday, we should see some breaks of sunshine along with the clouds.  That should allow temperatures to climb into the upper 50s for Tuesday’s highs.  Wednesday also looks fairly decent, before our next storm approaches for Thursday, with what will likely be a soaking rain.

The storm should push eastward on Friday, as some much colder air tries to sneak into the Hudson Valley.  Now, there’s a long shot that some of the cold air sneaks in before the moisture is out of the region.  If several things come together, it could cause the rain to end as some wet snow flakes around parts of the region.  Something exciting for us to watch, as we are reminded that the seasons are beginning to change more and more each day.  We’ll monitor though the week, but at this moment, we’d put the chances for wet snow flakes at 20%, and the chances of accumulating snow at less than 10%… just so you have a point of reference for how likely or unlikely we feel this is right now.

Have a great start to your week!


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