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Incredible Cold Overshadowed

In the wake of soaking rainfall, where the Hudson Valley saw another 3/4 to 1 inch of rain… we’re watching temperatures begin to tumble behind an arctic cold front.  Strong NW winds will usher in the coldest air of the season to date…

Just how cold are these temperatures for this time of year?  Well… let’s just say it will feel more typical of mid January, rather than mid November.  A true shock to the system headed our way for Wednesday….

And when you factor in the NW winds gusting over 20mph at times on Wednesday, the wind chills across the region, will bring the core of winter to the Hudson Valley.

So make sure you bundle up before heading out the door on Wednesday.  Get the kids out the door with the winter jackets and hats, because the chill will get to the bone.

We know that everyone is REALLY interested in the snow potential for Thursday afternoon and evening.  We’ve been digging in, and have a comprehensive discussion coming.  But in the meantime, check our DETAILED 5 DAY FORECAST for Thursday.  Our first taste of winter is on the way… now we’re going to work on the details of Timing… impacts… and snowfall amounts.

Monday Night Rain

After a very cold early November day, we’re now watching closely as the rains will approach from the south tonight.

Futurecast Radar: 8pm Monday – 3pm Tuesday

The rains will begin around the region between 10pm and 1am for most of us (earlier to the south, later to the north).  The rain should be steady, but light to moderate until morning approaches.  As morning approaches on Tuesday, periods of moderate to at times heavy rain are possible… making for a very soggy commute Tuesday morning.  The rains should taper off by mid day Tuesday… with conditions improving for the Tuesday PM commute.

In terms of rainfall totals between Monday night and Tuesday… no changes to the projected amounts of around 1 inch on average.

Which will be a strain on some local creeks and streams, as the saturated grounds will not have much ability left to absorb the run off.  A very soggy Monday night and Tuesday awaits.

The Chill Sinks In… Rain Likely Monday Night

Under sunshine and decreased winds… we’re seeing Sunday afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 40s across the Hudson Valley.  That’s roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year, and serves as a reminder that the seasons are slowly beginning to change.

The chill will be with us into the start of the work week as well, as afternoon highs on Monday will climb into the mid and upper 40s.  Skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday, but clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours… hinting at the approaching storm system that will bring another bout of rain to the region.

Futurecast Radar : Monday 7pm – Tuesday 12pm

Based on the progression of the system, the start time for the rain is likely anywhere from 9pm to midnight, from south to north.  You can also see on this map, that there is a potential for wet snow and sleet at the onset across Sullivan County and the Catskills.  We’ll have to monitor the potential for a couple areas of a coating to an inch of slushy wet snow.  But for the majority of us, it’s more rainfall that’s expected.  How much rain?  Well… a general inch or so of rain can’t be ruled out…

We’ll be monitoring the situation, and provide updates as we get closer.  Thanks for the continued support… have a great start to your week!

Friday Outlook : Flash Flood Watch Tonight

…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT…
…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT…

* WHERE: East central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, and Western Dutchess, Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester counties.

* From this evening through late tonight

* Rain, heavy at times will fall across the flood watch area
Friday evening through late Friday night. A total of 1 to 1.5
inches is expected with isolated amounts over 2 inches.

PROJECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT:

* This amount of rain combined with saturated soils from recent rainfall may be enough to cause flooding. The most likely areas will be urban and poor drainage areas and minor river flooding is possible as well. In addition, fallen leaves may clog storm drains causing additional flooding.
Instructions:
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Thursday Discussion : Cool Sunshine and Blue Skies

A fantastic start to our Thursday across the Hudson Valley, with lots of sunshine and blue skies.  Temps have started out a bit chilly, in the low 30s for many places.  But under sunshine and a light NW wind, we’ll see temperatures today climb up toward 50°… which is a few degrees below average for this time of year.  But if you’ve got outdoor plans on this autumn Thursday… you should be just fine, as long as you have a jacket.

As we look toward Friday, we’ve got another storm system approaching from the southwest.  Clouds will increase late tonight, and into Friday morning.  Scattered showers are likely to develop during the mid afternoon hours on Friday, with a steady, soaking rain Friday night.

Another 1.0″ of rain appears likely, as this storm system pushes though.  The further south you go… the better the chances of the higher rainfall amounts.

Then this weekend, the temperatures tumble into the mid 40s, with strong wind gusts.  That will make for a wintry feel this weekend, with wind chills in the 30s.  Get ready for some big changes in the coming days!

Wednesday Discussion : One Fine Day

The rains have finally ended, and we’ll see the Hudson Valley dry out for a couple days.  That’s extremely welcome news to almost all of us.  For Wednesday and Thursday, we anticipate partly to mostly sunny skies, with seasonably mild temperatures.  Highs on Wednesday could approach 60°, while highs on Thursday should be a few degrees cooler… in the low 50s.

Our next chance of rain arrives on Friday, as another storm system approaches from the west.  Another half inch, to inch and a half of rain are possible.  Timing the system, it appears that the rain begins late morning, and lasts into early evening.  So any Friday afternoon plans should begin to take rain into the equation.

Things then turn blustery and cold for the weekend.  Strong NW winds gusting over 20mph… combined with temperatures in the low 40s… to generate wind chills in the 30s across the region.  So a late fall, early winter preview heading our way for the coming weekend.  More details as we get closer!

Tuesday Discussion : Rain Rain Go Away

Yet another rainy day lined up for the Hudson Valley. Low clouds, fog and drizzle have been with us for our morning commute, and we’re tracking an area of heavier showers that will arrive later this morning and toward mid day. So… yet another day to keep the rain gear handy… as another 0.5” to 1.0” of rain are possible. But no matter rain or shine… we hope you have a great day.

Monday Discussion : Unsettled Start to the Week

After a beautiful fall Sunday across the Hudson Valley, we’ll start the work week off with an approaching warm front, and scattered showers on Monday.

Futurecast Radar: 6am – 6pm Monday

You can see that as the warm front pushes into the northeast, some rain showers are likely to push in from SW to NE during the early to mid morning hours.  The rain showers don’t look heavy in nature, but it certainly looks like a damp start to the work week.  Make sure you grab your umbrella and rain gear… because temps will be in the 40s in general, so you’ll want your coat as well.

Looking to Tuesday, the cold front will approach with another round of rain expected… as well as some very strong winds.  Wind gusts over 30mph are possible on Tuesday, which could result in some ‘High Wind Watches’ once again… with the potential for some down trees and powerlines, causing some sporadic power outages.  Something we’ll have our eyes on.

Otherwise, have a great start to your work week!

Weekend Roundup : Quiet End to the Weekend

A wild start to the month of November, as we saw a wind blown rain storm push through the Hudson Valley and into the northeast over the last 36 hours.  Here’s the map of preliminary rainfall amounts since Thursday morning, as well as the Poughkeepsie weather almanac for Saturday…

The Hudson Valley is off to a very warm start, over 10 degrees above average for the first few days.  Rainfall amounts are also flooding in across the region.  The average for the month is roughly 3.5 inches of rain… and many areas saw over half of that in the past 36 hours.  With more rain expected in the coming week… we are looking at the likelihood of a wetter than average November.  This continues the 2018 pattern… which saw a brief break in the soaking rainfall during October, where we were actually an inch below average in Poughkeepsie at 3.4″ of rain (average = 4.47″).

So as we look to the end of the weekend… a much more tranquil day on Sunday.  Winds will die down, and sunshine will be the dominant weather story.  Mostly sunny skies with temps in the low 50s should do it.  Making for a fine autumn day.  We’ll have to enjoy that, because some wet weather has its eye on the region for Monday night into Tuesday.  So start factoring that into your plans.  Full details are available on the 5 day forecast.

Thanks for your continued support of HVW!

Still Raining

Another round of rain will push through the region over the next few hours, we have already recorded over 3 inches at our station in Ulster County. The wind will begin to pick up as the rain departs early this afternoon, winds gusting up to 50 mph combined with saturated grounds will likely lead to sporadic power outages across the region.  

As the storm departs colder air will crash into the region, this will cause rain to change to snow briefly across the higher terrain with light accumulations possible.