After a Wednesday that was a bit more buzz worthy than expected, we’ll see unsettled conditions continue into Thursday, and straight into the weekend. We expected Wednesday to be relatively benign, with periods of showers and localized downpours. But a flood of concern came our way about the potential for severe weather and tornados. We discovered the National Weather Service placed us in a “slight risk” for severe weather, due to elevated shear and approaching warm front.
NWS Severe Potential from Wednesday
To be honest, we did not factor this into our forecast, because we anticipated the morning clouds and rain across the Hudson Valley would stabilize the atmosphere enough that the afternoon severe threat would not materialize. In addition, we perceived the threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be further to our west (near Binghamton and Scranton, PA), not focused over the Hudson Valley. However, had we been wrong, and the clouds exited early… we would have seen the atmosphere become much more unstable, and we would have had a much better chance for severe weather to occur. So we were a bit surprised by the buzz on social media Wednesday morning, mostly because of how we were approaching the forecast. That said, the National Weather Service was absolutely correct with their concerns, for all the right reasons. It’s just that with this weather pattern, there are so many factors to consider when generating the forecast. Hopefully that explains why our forecast was one thing, while you may have heard something different on social media.
So looking to Thursday, it’s more of the same. We’ll see warm and muggy conditions across the region, with high dew points and temps a few degrees on either side of 80°. The moist atmosphere will lead to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered about the region.
Futurecast Radar 2am to 8pm
So you can see the futurecast radar is not that active on Thursday afternoon. We do expect to see pop up showers and thunderstorms develop any time after noon… but they don’t appear to be widespread and too numerous. Just enough so that we’ll all have to be on guard during the afternoon hours, and into the evening. We also can’t rule out that one or two of the storms won’t be severe warned, with the potential for some strong, possibly damaging wind gusts. But once again… this would be the exception, rather than the rule.
The unsettled weather will carry into Friday, with similar conditions expected… before we see more widespread showers and storms Friday night into Saturday AM… when things should hopefully, begin to quiet down. But this pattern is unpredictable, so we’ll have to wait until we get closer to Saturday to see if we might see some afternoon sun.
Have a great Thursday!