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Thursday Discussion : Milder Mix

We’ve got sunshine mixing with clouds across the region, as we watch milder air push northward, into the Hudson Valley. Temps around the region are quickly climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s as of mid day…
Poughkeepsie 52° … Newburgh 48° … Monroe 54°
Kingston 51° … Middletown 50° … Monticello 49°
 
As we head into the afternoon… expect more clouds mixed with sunshine, and afternoon highs in the mid 50s for most of us. That’s roughly 10 degrees above average, and will feel like an early sign of spring.
Tonight, we’ll see clouds thicken and spotty rain showers and drizzle are possible late, with temps holding in the low 40s. But early on Friday temps should spike into the upper 50s and low 60s, along with clouds, drizzle and a spot rain shower.
 
While we won’t have the nicest weather to close out the work week, it will at least be mild. Colder air returns for the weekend and into early next week… as winter tries to hold on to the Hudson Valley. No real snow threats on the horizon either… but we will continue to monitor the situation for any changes.
 
Have a great Thursday afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion: Sun Fades Late

We’ll start our Wednesday off chilly with temps in the 20s, but with lots of sunshine across the Hudson Valley.  But as the day progresses, we’ll see more and more high clouds increasing around the region.  A SW wind will help pull temperatures up toward the 50° mark by mid afternoon… right about where we should be for this time of the year.  Skies look mainly cloudy skies by sunset.  We could see a few sprinkles around sunset in a few spots… but generally cloudy skies should carry us through the night.
 
Things warm up even more for Thursday and Friday, as we get a slight taste of early spring weather.  Complete details on the forecast are on the mobile app or website.  Hope everyone has a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Quiet Mid March Pattern

March may have come in loud and obnoxious, with bouts wintry weather.  The snow didn’t add up to a whole lot, but 2 inches here, a dusting there, 4 inches after that… and we had quite the snowy start to the month.  After an arctic blast followed the snow… things have quieted down quite a bit… putting the March lion down for a nap.

The pattern has calmed, and temperatures are back near normal for mid March.  We don’t have any significant accumulating snow on the horizon at this point, as the clock on winter quickly winds down.  For the 2nd half of the work week, we’ll see a SW wind gradually raise temperatures up into the upper 40s… and eventually 50s by Thursday and into Friday.  That will be accompanied by the chance of rain showers… but nothing overly heavy.

Cold air should return for the weekend, because the jet stream will dip south again in the northeast.  That should give us below average temps for at least part of next week.  The big question, is will a chance of snow come with that cold air?  There are hints of slight chances… but nothing that looks even remotely likely at this point.  We’ll see what develops… if anything.  And we’ll share the info with you as we go.  Have a great afternoon!

Monday Discussion : Spring in Our Sights & Snow Recap

Our weak snow to sleet and rain event from Sunday, served as a late season reminder that winter still has it’s grip on the northeast and Hudson Valley.  We projected a widespread coating to 2 inches in the valley, with perhaps up to 2 to 5 inches in the Catskills.  What actually happened, was pretty close to that…

We didn’t put out a snowmap, because of the weakness and insignificance of the overall storm.  But pretty much everyone from I-84 on south saw less than an inch, before melting began.  The eastern Catskills did the best, with widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts… and some 4″ amounts in the highest elevations.

But now, as we move into the work week… the sun has returned, and temperatures are climbing well into the 40s.  This should melt the remaining snowpack in most areas.  We’ll see a sharp NW wind usher in colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday… before a SURGE of warmth floods northward by the week’s end.  Highs in the 50s and near 60° are likely by the end of the week.  A sign that spring is beginning to strengthen it’s grip.

We will likely see 1 more blast of winter weather between March 17th and March 25th… where we could see a threat of one final winter storm.  Once we get through that… it appears that springtime weather will begin to settle in, and winter… may finally be beaten.

More updates through the week, but for now… this week’s weather looks quiet and chilly, through mid week.  Have a great start to the week!

Sunday Discussion: AM Wintry Mix

The bulk of the snow and sleet has pushed northeast of the Hudson Valley at this hour.  We continue to see a weak band of wet snow, sleet and freezing drizzle rotate into the region at this hour, but this looks light in nature.  Areas from I-84 on south appear likely to be plain rain at this point, based on temperature reports from that area.

It appears a general coating to 2 inches of snow fell around the region, but we’ll wait to hear from you for confirmation.  The rest of the morning looks to see temperatures gradually moderate, and rise above freezing.  The back edge of the precipitation is moving thru now, but scattered areas of drizzle are possible into the afternoon hours.  That’s good news or at least ‘decent’ news for our local parades and events… like the Kingston parade.  Anyone in that area, it should be mainly dry and at least above freezing, just a few areas of drizzle and a spot shower.  So everyone should be able to throw on a coat, and be able to participate in and support your local community events without weather ruining the day.

Road conditions should improve steadily as the temps continue to rise, by be alert to the potential of slick spots on the roads, especially as you head further north. 

Have a safe start to your Sunday!

Saturday Discussion : Mild before the Mix

Temperatures on Saturday may start out cold, but they should finish about as mild as we’ve seen so far this month.  Highs on Saturday will climb into the low and mid 40s around the region, under a good amount of sunshine.  It should shape up to be quite the nice late winter day!

But of course, everyone continues to be focused on Sunday morning.  It does look to be a headache for many parts of the region, as the timing and temperatures are quite inconvenient for anyone who may be headed out early on Sunday.  It looks like the snow changes to sleet rather quick, but the sleet may be a bit more stubborn to change to rain.  This could cause some icy travel in spots Sunday morning, until the temperatures rise above freezing for the afternoon hours.  Timing the temperatures will be the critical issue… because once temps get to 32° with the March sun angle, the snow and sleet should melt on the paved surfaces pretty quick.

We’ll try to take an updated look at this later on Saturday, to see if we have more ‘fine tuned’ information.  But here are our latest thoughts as of early Saturday morning.

Timing
… Snow begins between 3am and 6am Sunday morning

… Snow changes to sleet between 5am and 8am
… Wintry mix changes to rain between 7am and 12pm

Impacts & Accumulation
… A coating to 2″ in the valley… up to 3″ possible in Catskills
… temps near 32° by sunrise, how fast they rise is critical to AM travel
… sleet may persist with temps slightly above freezing, delaying improved travel

… icy spots likely near sunrise, gradual improving by mid AM hours
… Traditionally colder valleys may see extended period of Ice (ex. Sullivan, West Ulster)

Friday Discussion : Finally Above Freezing!

Another bitingly cold start around the region, with temperatures in the low to mid teens to start the day.  But rest easy friends… we will SMASH the 32° mark today, and make it all the way to… the mid and upper 30s.  We know, not exactly overwhelming… but it’s an improvement.  Temps on Friday will still be a good 10° below average, but each day is a bit better than the previous day… with Saturday’s highs expected to climb into the low and mid 40s in the valley.  Now, both days will be about 5 to 10 degrees colder in the Catskills, but anyone who lives in the Catskills is more than familiar with that fact by now.  So keep your heads up, conditions are improving as we head into the weekend.

Eyes on Sunday Morning…

The Sunday morning wintry event has garnered much attention in the past few days.  In reality, it appears likely to be a rather underwhelming event, like many others in recent memory.

First Thoughts…
– Timing & Impacts –
… Snow begins between 3am and 7am Sunday morning
… Snow changes to sleet then rain between 6am and 10am
… A coating to 2″ in the valley… up to 3″ possible in Catskills
… temps near 32° by sunrise, rising above freezing rather quickly
… some icy spots possible near sunrise, improving by mid AM hours
… Traditionally colder valleys may see extended period of Ice (ex. Sullivan, West Ulster)

Thursday Discussion : Mid Winter’s Chill

It continues to feel like the core of winter outside, all across the Hudson Valley. Morning low temperatures were bitter cold around the region. Poughkeepsie got down to around 12° for a morning low… but that was likely because of a SW wind off the Hudson River, keeping them warmer than the surrounding area. Newburgh dropped down to 9°, and Montgomery was one of the colder spots, coming in at a bone chilling 2° for a morning low. But the coldest report came to us from Monticello, where the mercury hit a mind numbing -4°!
 
Now, the temps are climbing across the Hudson Valley as of mid day. Most of the region is in the mid to upper 20s at this point… with many topping out around 30° for an afternoon high. Average highs this time of year are in the mid 40s… so that’s roughly 15° below normal for the 1st week of March.
 
Next Storm on the Horizon
We’re watching a weak disturbance roll through to our south on Friday. A snow shower or flurry can’t be ruled out for Friday afternoon… but the bulk of the moisture with that system will stay south of us. Then our eyes turn to Saturday night and Sunday. A strong storm will push into the midwest, and a warm front will approach our area Saturday night. That should spread a band of light snow into the Hudson Valley and Catskills before sunrise on Sunday. With March air being milder on average… it won’t take much for the wet snow to change over to rain across the region… so by mid to late morning on Sunday, we should all be seeing cold rain showers, as temps approach 40°. A slushy inch or two of wet snow is possible before the changeover… but current guidance suggests there is not much moisture associated with this system.
 
Winter’s Last Stand?
 
We’ll continue to watch this system over the next couple days, but signs of spring are starting to pop up all over the weather map. Spring has winter on the ropes… but we can’t write off Old Man Winter just yet. It looks like he might have a little more fight in him. Guidance suggesting that winter may look to make its last stand between March 17th and March 27th. In that period, we could see 1 or 2 chances for wet snow. But by that time… the March sun is very warm, and things will need to set up perfectly for snow to accumulate.
 
We’ll keep you posted on what we see. Thank you for all the support you guys have shown to HVW! A special thanks to all our supporters, for really believing in the mission of HVW, and finding value in our work. You ALL keep us motivated, and make operating HVW so much fun!

Mega Snow Recap : Mar 3-4, Mar 1-2, and More

The last 14 days have featured several lack luster winter weather events.  Packed full of underwhelming weak systems, that resulted in underachieving snow accumulations.  So with really only the last 2 events being significant in any way, we wanted to take a chance to recap the most significant snow events over the last 5 days… as well as the several underwhelming events from late February.

So first off, lets look at the Sunday night into Monday snow event that dropped a widespread 4 to 8 inches around the Hudson Valley, with a few localized 10″ amounts in Westchester County.  The event performed quite well in line with the forecast, in terms of timing and impact.  So in our traditional format… we’ll do the Snow History Map, the snowfall reports, and the HVW Final Forecast for comparisons…

This storm really was a beast to forecast from start to finish.  The storm that once looked like it could have been the biggest storm of the winter so far, almost pulled that feat off across parts of Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties.  The widespread 6 to 10 inches in those regions, was only a couple inches short of the 8 to 12 inches that fell in that region back in November.  This winter hasn’t had the big 12″ to 24″ snowstorm that many have wanted, but instead a whole bunch of “nickel and dime” events.

Across the Mid and Upper Hudson Valley, a widespread 3 to 6 inches, with some spotty 7 inch amounts north of I-84.  So all in all, pretty close to what was expected… even if it was disappointing.

March 1 – 2 coastal close call

This was a last minute development that appeared out of nowhere, and appeared likely to clip the southern half of the Hudson Valley with 3 to 6 inches of snow.  Then it turned out to be somewhat disappointing across the northern half of the Hudson Valley.  But in a scenario where nothing was expected 36 hours in advance… we suppose you take what you can get.  Same format… snow history w/ totals, and our forecast…

This storm popped up on the guidance roughly 24 to 36 hours ahead of time.  A weak coastal low pressure that was originally expected to stay further off shore… suddenly shifted in expected track.  By hugging the coast, it appeared a quick 3 to 6 inches from roughly the Mid Hudson Valley on south was possible.  Then when it performed, it really struggled to do much of anything north of I-84.  This event went from nothing, to interesting… to “meh”.

February 27th Clipper Event

A weak Alberta Clipper was projected to clip the northern half of the Hudson Valley.  A few days prior, it looked as if much of the region could see a widespread 3 to 5 inches of snow… however, at the last minute, this storm weakened and trended further north.  The end result was a disappointing event that only really impacted the northern HV and Catskills.  Leaving the rest of the region with a dusting to a half inch at most.

Earlier Mid February Events 2/17 & 2/20

These events were just a couple events that impacted the region mid month.  Both were quite lackluster and disappointing.  A theme that repeats itself throughout this winter it seems.

These events pull together the various events over the last 14 days.  A microcosm of the entire winter, which has had this continual feeling of disappointment.  In the coming days, we hope to bring our seasonal snow totals up to date, so we can see where we stand compared to average.  Thank you for all your continued support!

Tuesday Discussion : Winter’s Cold Returns

We’ve begun to see signs that spring is on the doorstep to the Hudson Valley.  This past weekend, before the snows fell… highs on Sunday were in the low to mid 40s.  Not because a mild southwest wind was hitting the region… but because the standard air mass for this time of the year is milder than late January or early February.  Highs in the mid 40s are what we would expect for this time of year.

However, that’s not going to do much for us in the next 3 days.  Tuesday we begin the plunge into the arctic once more.  Our winds will shift out of the NW, and an arctic air mass will dive into the upper Midwest.  This will bring an unseasonably cold chill back to the region.  Highs on Tuesday will struggle into the upper 20s across most of the valley.  A NW breeze will make that feel more like the upper teens and low 20s.

Tonight, temps will tumble into the single digits, and depending on how calm the winds can get… we may see some traditionally colder areas take a run at the 0° mark.  Most of us, will see lows between 0° and 10°.  Then on Wednesday we’ll see the core of the cold set in.  Highs will struggle into the low 20s across the region… roughly 20 degrees below average!  Wind chills on Wednesday will be in the teens!  So, hopefully you didn’t throw your winter gear in the closet just yet.  If you did, go grab it, because you’re going to need it for this week.

We’re still putting together a more formal, detailed storm recap.  So that should be up Tuesday night.  Bundle up, Hudson Valley!