Thursday Night Weekend Outlook : The Relief is Here!!

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy skies, low humidity, beautiful. High in the low 80s.
FRI NIGHT: Mainly clear, crisp and comfortable. Low in the mid 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny and comfortable. High near 80°.
SAT NIGHT: Mainly clear skies and crisp. Low in the mid 50s.
SUNDAY: Sunshine mixing with increasing clouds. Seasonable. High in the low 80s.
SUN NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low in the low 60s.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. A late day shower possible. High near 80°
After a week of intense heat, with every day seeing highs in the low to mid 90s… and heat index values around 100°… we finally have some relief from the heat.
The jet stream has buckled and allowed cooler, drier air from Canada to move southeast… and into the northeast. The result will be a weekend of beautiful weather. Highs each day in the upper 70s to low 80s… with some mid 80s possible by Sunday. Dew points will be comfortably low… near 50° through the weekend. That should help give a ‘late spring’ feel to the air this weekend. If that doesn’t do it… then the overnight lows sure will. Low temps Friday and Saturday night will be in the 50s… possibly some low to mid 50s. A refreshing change from recent days.

The Pattern Change is Here… Now What About Rain?

After a week plus of intense heat and humidity, we’re finally getting a break with cooler temps and low humidity. But a quick look at the drought monitor, and you can see that the Hudson Valley is drier now, than at any point this year. Portions of Dutchess, Putnam, and eastern Orange counties are now in ‘severe drought’. Only the Catskills are without drought conditions. So in short… we need rain, badly.
While we don’t have an abundance of immediate good news, the change in pattern will bring with us chances at steady soaking rain over the next week. You can see the Jet stream will dip over the eastern US over the next 7 days, and this will keep our flow out of Canada instead of out of the south. As the jet digs, and the upper level low settles into the eastern US, a series of waves of low pressure are likely to rotate around the base of the trough. One of those could strengthen and become a coastal low pressure, which could give us decent measurable rain.
The trouble is, there is a chance the position of the trough is too far east, so there is no guarantees here, but this pattern will bring the best chance we’ve had in a while for a widespread soaking rain. We’ll keep our eyes closely locked on this, and try to share updates through the weekend.
Hopefully, no matter what your plans are… you can enjoy what should be a beautiful, weather weekend!

Thursday Discussion : The Heat is Here!

** HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT **
WHERE: Entire Hudson Valley
WHEN: Now through Friday 8pm
WHAT: Heat Index Values upper 90s to low 100s
The entire Hudson Valley is under a heat advisory until Friday evening. The massive eastern ridge of high pressure is sending the heat straight up the east coast. Highs on Thursday in the mid to upper 90s and low to mid 90s on Friday will combine with increasing humidity levels to make for a very uncomfortable feel to the air. ‘Real Feel’ Heat index values between 95° and 104° are possible around the region. Make sure you use proper caution, taking frequent breaks from the heat.
Along with the heat, a line of scattered showers and T-Storms is likely to develop across central NY late today, and push toward the Catskills and Hudson Valley near sunset. The timing would be 6pm to 10pm, and the best chance is in the Catskills and upper HV, but just be alert to the potential this evening. The severe potential is marginal… meaning a low threat, but we cannot rule out some strong and potentially damaging wind gusts.
 
Stay cool everyone!!

Wednesday Discussion : Heat Advisory Back in Effect

…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM:
– 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY…
– NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY…
* WHAT…Heat index values in the mid 90s to lower 100s expected
both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
* WHERE… Entire Hudson Valley (excluding western Greene and Western Ulster counties).
* WHEN…11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday and noon to 8 PM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

The Week Ahead : Searching For Rain

MONDAY: An early morning shower, otherwise clouds mixing with some breaks of afternoon sunshine. High near 80°.
MON NIGHT: Variable cloudiness, a bit mild. Low in the mid 60s.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and clouds. An isolated afternoon T-Storm. High in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
TUE NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies. Comfortable. Low near 60°
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, hot but not too humid. High near 90. Real feel temps near 90°
WED NIGHT: Variable clouds. Low in the mid 60s.
THURSDAY: Very hot! Partly cloudy skies. Moderate humidity. High in the upper 90s. Heat index near 100°.
 
Welcome to August, Hudson Valley! With any luck, some of us will start it off with some early morning rain showers on Monday. Most of us will see a trace to a tenth of an inch… but a few localized heavier downpours could see someone get a quarter of an inch of rain before the region dries out Monday morning. Clouds will help to hold temps into the upper 70s and low 80s for highs around the region.
From there, things dry out for Tuesday through Thursday. A strong upper level high pressure will build over the eastern US and allow temps to heat up each day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be upper 80s to around 90°… but the real heat hits on Thursday. The strong ridge of high pressure will flood the heat into the Hudson Valley. Highs on Thursday are expected in the upper 90s to near 100°! At least for now, the humidity doesn’t appear likely to make it more oppressive.
Then on Friday and Saturday, the ridge shifts just enough to where the HV may become unsettled with multiple chances at showers & T-Storms. If correct, temps may hold in the 70s and 80s… but if the trough stays west, 90s to near 100° could last into Friday.
 
We’ll watch all of this through the week, because precise details could mean big temperatures differences… and possibly even rain! Have a great start to your week!

Friday Weekend Outlook: Summer in Full Effect

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a scattered late day T-Storm possible. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%

FRI NIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, especially south of I-84. Low in the low 60s.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny, with seasonable temperatures. High in the mid 80s.

SAT NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies and comfortable. Low in the mid 50s

SUNDAY: Sunshine mixed with clouds. High in the mid to upper 80s.

A seasonable summer weekend on tap for the Hudson Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s is close to where we should be for this time of year, maybe a degree or two warmer. But most of the valley looks dry as well for the coming weekend.

The first graphic shows projected high temperatures for the Hudson Valley on Friday afternoon. Highs on Saturday and Sunday look very similar, maybe a degree or two cooler than today. Highs in the valley in the mid to upper 80s… and the Catskills in the upper 70s to low 80s.


The second image is projected precipitation from Friday through Sunday, for the Hudson Valley. You can see that the lower Hudson Valley might see 0.10” to 0.20” of rain… and that comes Friday night. A weak disturbance will slide through just to our south Friday evening, and could spread showers and possibly a rumble or two of thunder. The timing looks to be mostly 6pm through 3am tonight. Showers are possible across the valley, with the best chance being below I-84.

In the long range, the heat will try to build once again mid to late next week… possibly bringing temps that were hotter than last week’s. We’ll keep our eye on that. Have a great Weekend!!

The Week Ahead : Dry Conditions Persist, but Heat Eases

MONDAY: Morning clouds and scattered showers, with a mix of clouds & sun in the afternoon. A stray T-Storms possible. High 85° to 90°. Heat index near 90° Chance of rain 40%.
MON NIGHT: An evening shower or T-Storm, followed by partly cloudy skies. Remaining mild. Low in the mid 60s.
TUESDAY: Sunshine mixing with clouds. Seasonably warm. Low humidity. High in the mid 80s. Real feel temps in the low to mid 80s.
TUE NIGHT: Mostly clear skies and not as warm. Low around 60°
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Very warm with moderate humidity levels. High in the upper 80s.
WED NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mild. Low in the upper 60s.
THURSDAY: Hazy, hot and humid. Clouds mixed with sun, and scattered showers and T-Storms. High near 90°. Heat index in the low 90s.
 
The hottest week we’ve had in a long time is coming to an end. Highs every day since Tuesday, has been in the low to mid 90s in the Hudson Valley. Poughkeepsie recorded highs of 97° both Wednesday & Thursday… getting close to record highs, but falling a few degrees short.
This week, a cold front pushes through on Monday. We should see a fair number of clouds, with a few showers scattered around the region. An afternoon T-Storm can’t be ruled out either. But the front will take the intense heat out of the Hudson Valley, bringing us back to more typical highs in the mid to upper 80s this week.
However, rainfall appears likely to be rather sparce. Monday and perhaps Thursday night are the only chances of rain we’re currently seeing, and those chances don’t appear too high. So the ‘abnormally dry” conditions are likely to expand across most of the region.
We’ll share updates along the way. Have a great start to the week!

Weekend Outlook : Heat Advisory in Effect

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Hot with moderate humidity. High in the mid 90s. Heat index in the mid 90s.
SAT NIGHT: Partly cloudy, very warm and muggy. Low in the upper 60s.
SUNDAY: Very hot, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. High in the upper 90s. Heat index in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat Advisory in Effect.
SUN NIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies. Very warm. Low in the low 70s.
MONDAY: Hazy, hot and humid… clouds mixed with sun. Scattered showers & T-Storms likely. High around 90°. Heat index in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 60%.
What will likely be the hottest weekend of 2022, is in store for the Hudson Valley. We’ve been pretty lucky in the Hudson Valley so far this month. While a heat wave has gripped much of the country for the past week or two, a trough over the northeast kept the Hudson Valley cool through last weekend. But the heat finally began to spread into the northeast over the past few days, and it will be locked in over the weekend.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 90s on Saturday, with moderate humidity levels. That will keep ‘real feel’ temps close to the actual air temperature. Even so, a “Heat Advisory” is in effect through the weekend for the Hudson Valley (Catskills not included).
The heat should peak on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s… possibly hitting 100° in spots. But again, humidity will remain in check, so ‘real feel’ heat index values should mirror actual air temps. Be sure to take it slow outside this weekend, with frequent breaks from the heat. Be sure to stay hydrated and check in on those who may need assistance.
Monday should bring a chance of T-Storms as a cold front approaches, which will bring an end to the heat wave by Tuesday. Have a great weekend!

The Week Ahead: Welcome Rain, Followed by Heat

MONDAY: Very humid with morning showers and embedded T-Storms… followed by mix of clouds and sun, with a scattered late day T-Storm. High in the mid 80s. Heat index near 90°.
MON NIGHT: Scattered evening T-storms, otherwise turning partly cloudy overnight. Warm and muggy. Low near 70°.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies, hot with moderate humidity. Highs around 90°. Heat index around 90°.
TUE NIGHT: Variable clouds, and mild. Low in the upper 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Hot with moderate humidity. High in the mid 90s. Heat index in the mid 90s.
WED NIGHT: Very warm and muggy, mostly cloudy with a shower possible. Low in the low 70s.
THURSDAY: Hot and muggy, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers & T-Storms. High in the low 90s. Heat index in the low 90s. Chance of rain 50%.
The Hudson Valley region has been unusually dry over the past 2 months. As a result, the portion of the valley experiencing “abnormally dry” conditions is expanding. Hopefully some much needed rainfall on Monday will help change that. We expect rain showers to move into the valley after midnight Sunday night, and continue through the morning on Monday. We could dry out for a few hours Monday afternoon, before the frontal boundary swings through late in the day… which could trigger some scattered showers and T-Storms. The combined rainfall from the various rounds of rain could exceed 1 inch, and that would be great for the increasing drought conditions.
Once the storm exits on Tuesday, the heat will build across the Hudson Valley. We’re looking at a multi-day stretch of above normal temperatures, with daily highs expected near or above 90°. The heat peaks on Wednesday most likely, with highs possibly in the mid 90s. But don’t expect a major cool down on Thursday, as high temps will likely be near 90° through the work week.
Have a great start to your week!

The Weekend Outlook : Becoming Increasingly Unsettled

SATURDAY: Sunshine mixing with increasing clouds. Comfortable humidity. High in the mid 80s. Heat index in the mid 80s.
SAT NIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies, a spot shower possible. Low in the low 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, with isolated afternoon showers & T-Storms. High in the mid 80s. Heat index in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
SUN NIGHT: Lots of clouds and unsettled. Scattered showers and T-Storms possible. Muggy. Low in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy and humid, with periods of showers and T-Showers. High in the low 80s.
As we head into the weekend, we’ll see increasing amounts of cloudiness moving into the Hudson Valley. Saturday does look primarily dry, with a stray afternoon shower or T-Shower being possible. Mostly cloudy skies will carry forward into Sunday, when we will track an area of rain and T-Storms pushing into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. We could see a late day shower or T-Storm on Sunday… but the threat of rain increases Sunday night and on into Monday. Monday an area of rain could spread into the HV, but the bulk of it appears focused to our north. Something we’ll monitor through the weekend.
 
Temperature wise, we’ll be relatively close to average, with highs in the mid 80s… and overnight lows in the 60s. Humidity levels should be comfortable to start, becoming more humid toward the end of the weekend.
 
We hope everyone has a great weekend!

The Week Ahead – Building Heat & Tue T-Storm Threat

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Comfortable humidity. High 85° to 90°. Real feel in the upper 80s.
MON NIGHT: Increasing clouds, a chance of showers after midnight. Low in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
TUESDAY: Clouds mixed with sun, hot and humid. Chance of afternoon showers and T-Storms. High in the low 90s. Heat index values in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 50%.
TUE NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low in the upper 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds mixing with sunshine, with low humidity. High in the mid 80s.
WED NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low near 60°.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy skies with comfortable humidity. High in the mid 80s.
 
Another beautiful weekend around the Hudson Valley, with lots of sunshine and blue skies, low humidity and temperatures near average for early July, in the mid 80s both Saturday & Sunday.
As we head into the work week, we’ll see humidity increasing, as well as the heat, out ahead of our next frontal boundary. Temps on Monday will climb into the mid 80s with low to moderate humidity. Clouds and humidity will increase Monday night, with a shower possible. The heat jumps into the low 90s on Tuesday, with moderate humidity, giving ‘real feel’ temps in the mid 90s across the valley. But a potent cold front will push through Tuesday afternoon, and could touch off scattered strong to severe T-Storms around the valley. We’ll monitor that as we get closer on Tuesday.
Behind the front, the humidity drops, and temps return near average. The 2nd half of the week looks quiet in terms of the weather. We’ll have to see how quickly the front exits Tuesday night, or if the threat of a shower lingers into Wed AM.
Things have dried out over the last 2 months, so opportunities for rain are a welcome sight. Unfortunately we don’t expect much rainfall on Tuesday, and nothing else of significance in the next 7 days, but we’ll keep tracking things.
Have a great week!