NowCasting Storm Update #4-
Radar will fill back in this morning as Nor Easter deepens, some dry slotting is occurring this morning, this was expected and forecasted.
Snowfall lingers through 9PM, heaviest and most persistent across NE parts of the region and east of the river.
Data continues to support our change to lower amounts across SW parts of the region where back edge a lower snowfall rates will impede accumulations. This potential was mentioned as early as Sunday evening.
Localized area of down-sloping highlighted 24 hours ago remains an issue for parts of Ulster and points SW.
Additional accumulations between 6am- 9pm, in areas not impacted by down-slope noted below, and back edge of precipitation. 6”-15”. Additional accumulations where precipitation ends prematurely on SW edge, or where downslope persists throughout the day may be as little as 1”-6”
Final snow-map remains in place with down slope concern area highlighted within a red circle.
A wild morning across the region, with all of the complexity we imagined coming to fruition. Incredible observations coming in with wildly varying snowfall totals over short distances. A localized downslope across Ulster into parts of Orange forecasted in our yesterday morning update, has been observed and continues to be present in data.
Snowfall rates of 1-3 inch per hour have occurred in portions of the region. Power outages where snow has fallen the heaviest are ongoing.
Data continues to project that the radar will once again fill in this morning with heavier bands of 1-2”+ per hour snowfall returning to the region as our Nor Easter continues to deepen to our east and is pulled west to a near stall by the energy phasing into it. The latest HRRR showing what the radar will look like at 5PM. Heavy snow region wide with the exception of a localized area of down-sloping, as NE winds sink off the Catskills to the north. Notice the sliver of rain surround by snow? Just how localized is the downslope? We have a township that has nothing but rain on its west end, and 2-4” on its eastern end.
Through 9PM a band is still sitting over the Hudson Valley. The next two images are the NAM and HRRR projected snowfall, you can see two features, the back edge we mentioned as a concern yesterday morning and the localized downslope impacts.