A current look at Elsa shows that it seems to be behaving as expected, heaviest shield of rain is struggling to advance NW but is dropping heavy rain across the SE parts of the region, in addition there is a deformation band of precipitation that has been stretching from Sullivan to Ulster since early this morning, this band has sparked a flood advisory as its been nearly stationary after being nudged slightly north in the pre dawn hours. As of now it appears this line will start to sag back to the south and east as it mirrors is parent Elsa. As Elsa moves NE it will allow this line to move with it as can be seen on the radar as of 730AM. Elsa has good forward speed and we should see rain depart and partial clearing advance in from the west by later today. Wish i could say that the clearing has longevity, but the models have been consistent with showers and storms reigniting this afternoon as a cold front swings in from the west.
With that said… Once we get passed the effects of the cold front we will enter a lull of some much needed drier weather which will hold us over through Saturday, so if your looking to get some vitamin sun, clean up from storm damage, dry your basement, Saturday is the day. Unfortunetly this will be short lived, showers and storms return by Sunday and linger into next week with rebounding warmth and humidity.
It’s been a tumultuous 72 hours across the region as we have navigated through, multiple microburst, straight line wind damage, impressive lightning storms, flash flooding and now we move on to the potential impacts from Elsa as it moves up the coast.
Attached is both the latest HRRR and NAM model for the next 18-36 hours, there are some similarities to note, first off is that both models are showing a new batch of heavy rainfall moving back into the region tonight into the early morning hours of Friday, a look at the radar as of 530PM justifies this with downstream observations showing more moisture beginning to reload to our SW. Both model also show a fast moving hit of showers and storms late Friday night as well as Elsa pulls away. Where the models diverge but only slightly is on the NW extent of the impacts of Elsa, the NAM model really suppresses it to the SE with the largest impacts being across only are most SE zones. The HRRR on the other hand is slightly more NW with its impact, the final outcome will be hard to nail down as the models struggle with the slight jogs in it’ track. Also attached is additional rainfall amounts as projected by each model, you can clearly see the impacts the SE track has on the NAM’s rainfall outputs vs the HRRR.
Either way it is important to watch as a track further SE will lessen the flash flooding threat across most of the region, especially across the zones that were already hit today with 3-5″ of rain. Either way, more heavy rain is moving in this evening, winds will also increase, the only detail to be ironed out is will Elsa spare us it’s worst and only graze the region as it passes by. Keep in mind that even tonights rain is technically the result of Elsa as its lift and its approach is solely responsible for the stalling and movements of the troublesome frontal boundaries and the moisture breaking out ahead of it. Nevertheless, avoiding its main shield of precipitation would be beneficial to our already storm worn region..
A dramatic change in the weather pattern from earlier in the week, as we have low clouds and humid conditions… with the threat of showers all day.
Low clouds will be with us through the day… although a few peeks of sun can’t be ruled out. An upper level low pressure over the northeast will keep instability in place not only today, but through most of Saturday and possibly even Sunday. The air mass remains very humid, but temperatures are much lower than the intense heat from earlier in the week. Temps today will hold in the low to mid 70s through the day. The upper level low pressure will generate enough lift in the atmosphere to trigger scattered rain showers to develop over the northeast and Hudson Valley. In addition, the frontal boundary from Wednesday remains close enough to our south to interact with the upper level energy. The end result should be an enhancemet in the rain shower development, and keep periods of on and off rain showers likely through tonight.
Futurecast Radar : 10am Friday to Midnight
You can see on this futurecast the low clouds and rain showers continue to develop over top of the region. While we don’t see any well organized areas of rain… the threat of a batch of rain showers developing over top of us, will be present into tonight. Any of those rain showers could contain localized downpours, and possibly even a rumble or two of thunder.
Looking toward Saturday, we don’t see tremendous improvement in the conditions…
Futurecast Radar : Saturday 6am – 8pm
Latest guidance suggests that the low clouds will linger through the day on Saturday… and as the upper level energy pulls away… more scattered light rain showers could rotate through. As the upper level low moves east… our winds will shift out of the northeast on Saturday. This will pull down cool… almost chilly… air for early July. Temps on Saturday are likely not to get out of the 60s, with a persistent NE breeze. That’s 15° to 20° below average for this time of year.
When you realize that on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday… the highs in the valley were 90° to 95°, with heat index values between 98° and 105°… to look at the forecast for the next 2 days, feels almost like we all got on a plane and flew 1000 miles north. A cool and unsettled 4th of July weekend on tap. Have a great Friday!
In what has become routine for the Hudson Valley, we’ve got a Heat Advisory in effect once again today. Another scorcher already underway as we approach mid day. Temperatures around 90° and heat index values near 100° are already being felt in the valley before lunch time. Things only get more intense as we move through the afternoon.
Sunshine and blue skies with a SW flow will one more time, allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 90s. The humid atmosphere resulting from dew point temperatures in the 70s, will drive real feel heat index values over 100° Wednesday afternoon. As the Heat Advisory urges… be sure to take frequent breaks from direct sunlight, stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water, and check on elderly and at risk populations. Just be sure to be aware of those around you, and lets look out for each other. Thursday will see lots of clouds, and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. So Wednesday is the final day of this heatwave… just hang in there folks.
Late Day T-Storm Concern
The National Weather Service SPC office has issued the following severe potential for today…
This guidance from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is rather ominous for later today and tonight. It suggests a rather significant outbreak of strong to severe weather, especially for our viewers in NE Ulster, N Dutchess, Columbia and Greene counties. We’ve reviewed the data as well, and we respect the SPC’s guidance, and suggest we all prepare for the potential of severe thunderstorms later today and tonight. However, based on what we see, we don’t have quite the same level of concern. Here is our StormPact image for today:
CONFIDENCE : AVERAGE … based on the consistency of the data at hand, with the timing of the T-storm threat being late in the day and this evening, as well as the volume of super cell T-Storm cells expected, our confidence is average
IMPACTS : LOW … the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of supercell T-Storms in the Hudson Valley, primarily after 4pm. Multiple guidances show broken and disorganized lines of T-Storm activity, as opposed to a well organized squall line. Because of the projected disorganized nature of the potential severe event, we don’t expect a large number of severe T-Storms. **If Storms develop at a higher rate than projected in guidance, it would mean severe T-Storms over a larger area, and more of a ‘moderate impact’ for the HV.
OUTAGES : LOW … the latest guidance does not result in a large number of severe T-Storms in the region. There will likely be a few, but based on the disorganized nature of the event, widespread outages are not likely.
TIMING : 4pm to midnight… with peak activity between 6pm and 10pm.
The most active futurecast radar definitely indicates a couple severe thunderstorms expected around the region, but it does not look nearly as impressive as some previous thunderstorm outbreaks from this spring.
Futurecast Radar : 2pm Wednesday – 12am Thursday
You can see a few pop up super cell T-Storms show up over the Hudson Valley around 4pm… but they do not appear particularly widespread or intense. Those push out near dusk… as another broken line of showers and thunderstorms move in between 6pm and 10pm… possibly lingering through midnight. After sunset around 8pm, when we lose the heating of the day… the storms will lose some of their energy, and should begin to gradually weaken. With that said, there is definitely a likelihood of some strong to severe thunderstorms in a few locations late today and this evening.
– frequent lightning
– damaging wind gusts over 55mph
– Small hail
We’ll monitor this through the afternoon. We’re seeing some indication that perhaps the guidance does not have a great handle on the situation… and could be underestimating the event. That is why we always want to err on the side of caution, and move with the SPC. Maybe we get lucky, and our assessment is correct. But with severe weather, it’s best to be cautious.
Summer in full swing around the Hudson Valley as we enter day 3 of the heatwave.
Morning lows in the low to mid 70s will quickly translated into temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s by noon. But as we’ve come to learn by now, the real story remains the humidity that has locked into the eastern US. Dew points in the 70s will combine with the highs in the low to mid 90s… to produce real feel temps like you see in the image above. Heat index values as high as 104° are possible… and for that reason, the Heat Advisory remains in effect. The chances of an isolated late day T-Storm are very low… less than 20%, so no relief in sight. And if you don’t think these ‘real feel’ temperatures are likely… here’s a quick look at the heat index values from Monday afternoon…
This is what it actually felt like Monday afternoon, with real feel temps in the 100° to 104° range… which is largely the product of the dew points in the mid to upper 70s, combining with temps between 90° and 95°. So make sure you take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.
Looking to Wednesday, the heat and humidity hold in place, and we are likely to see a 4th straight day of temps in the 90s, and heat index values between 95° and 105°. Some relief looks likely for Thursday, in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms… but we’ll have to wait until Wednesday night for better ideas on the details.
For now… make sure to take it easy… and have a great Tuesday!