Wednesday Discussion : Ups and Downs

The signs of Old Man Winter could be found on grass and unpaved surfaces around the region Tuesday morning.  A slushy coating of wet snow fell prior to dawn, before ending as rain showers during Tuesday morning.  Other than that… we have little if any indication that Old Man Winter hasn’t packed up and left the region.

On Wednesday, we’ll see sunshine and clouds, with highs likely into the low 50s, out ahead of our next storm system for late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The one thing that looks less likely, is the potential for wet snow in the region.  It appears that temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, but most of us will see rain falling on Thursday morning.  The rain will be with us through late morning, before tapering off and being mostly cloudy in the afternoon.  Temps will hold in the 30s and low 40s for most of Thursday, before temps begin to surge prior to dawn on Friday.

We’ll have clouds and scattered rain showers for much of Friday, but the warm SW flow will allow temps to jump all the way up toward 70 degrees for a high.  Quite a notable change from Thursday to Friday.  Then for the weekend, we’ll see temps tumble once again, as cold air returns.  Highs over the weekend in the 40s are likely.

So we prepare to ride the wave of early spring, as warm air will be short lived, before cold air makes a comeback.  Hope you have a safe and happy Wednesday.

Monday Discussion : Looking at the Week Ahead

With complete attention and energy focused on dealing with and learning about COVID-19… the weather should not impact our day very much.  After a quiet day on Monday, we’ll see clouds increasing Monday night, and temperatures falling into the low and mid 30s overnight.  Light precipitation should push into the region overnight in the form of patchy drizzle and spot snow flurries.  By Tuesday morning, steadier rain and wet snow showers are likely…

Futurecast Radar : Monday 8pm – Wednesday 2am

You can see that the light drizzle could be found before midnight Monday night, but the steadier rain and wet snow showers appear around sunrise on Tuesday.  The wet snow is likely to be confined to the Catskills… with rain showers across the valley.  Temps are not expected to fall below freezing… with the exception of parts of the Catskills.  But some wet snow could mix in at times across the valley areas.

The rain and wet snow showers should exit the region by early afternoon on Tuesday, and then things will dry out until Thursday morning.

A series of storm systems will spread unsettled weather our way for Thursday and Friday.  As it looks right now, a high pressure system over New England will filter cold air into parts of the region Wednesday night, and set the stage for the Thursday rain system to begin as a period of wet snow… especially in the Catskills and northern HV.  We’ll have to see if the air mass is cold enough to support a period of wet snow Thursday morning… but even if it is… accumulations would be confined to grassy areas.

Whatever cold air does filter in… won’t last long.  Because by Friday, the strong SW flow will allow temperatures to jump back into the 60s and even near 70!

So with Spring beginning on Thursday, the spring weather roller coaster ride will be in full operation.  But in terms of impacting your daily activities and travel… the weather will be the least of our concerns.  Be safe, and have a good start to your week.

Weekend Discussion : Spring is Struggling

We’ve had no sign of winter for nearly 90 days now.  Since we turned the calendar to 2020, snowfall totals in the Hudson Valley are under 5″.  Even turning back the calendar to December 15th, over the last 90 days… snowfall amounts are incredibly low.

The normal Poughkeepsie snowfall over the timeframe, is nearly 30″… less than 20% of normal.  We’ve discussed this before… sadly, not much has changed since the last time we talked about it.  Odds are good that the next time we talk about it, the map will look very similar.  It’s without question one of (if not the worst) period of weather forecasting Alex and I have ever had to endure.

So accepting the fact that winter is an epic bust… we’re trying to look toward the arrival of spring.  We’ve had some warm days, and when you look at the March temperatures so far… the theme for the winter continues to hold strong.

Nearly 8 degrees above average in the Hudson Valley for the first half of March.  The entire country in fact, has seen incredibly warm air… in what has been the final stretch of a non-existent winter.  So the hope now is, can we just get these warm temperatures to continue, and bring us an early surge right into spring?

If you look at the long range European model, it suggests that over the 5 day period from March 21 to March 26… cold air could be in place over the northern half of the country.  Not likely an arctic outbreak or anything, but chilly for mid to late March.  So it doesn’t look like we’ll get any surge to spring.  Instead, it looks like we may struggle to warm up as we formally cross over into the spring season.

Hope everyone has a great Sunday

Wednesday Discussion : Yep… We’re Still Here

We wouldn’t blame you for wondering if we had closed down shop and exited the region… we’ve been radio silent for a few days.  We’ve been updating the forecast on the app and website… but there just hasn’t been much to talk about.  It’s quiet… way too quiet for early/mid March.

The pattern is boring… there is no cold air to speak of.  Good news for anyone who is looking to get an early jump on spring plans.  High temps the next few days will be in the low 50s for the most part… close to, or slightly warmer than where we should be for this time of year.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking fairly nice… in advance of our next storm system for late Thursday night and Friday.

A frontal system will approach from the west, and winds will shift out of the SW ahead of it.  It’s a rather fast mover, so we won’t see a huge spike in temps ahead of the front.  But clouds will increase Thursday night, and scattered showers are likely after midnight.  A period of steadier rain showers are possible through the Friday AM commute.  Things should taper off Friday around mid day… and we could see some sunshine for the afternoon hours.

Looking at the weekend, a cool but sunny weekend lies ahead.  High pressure should keep us dry and mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday, but highs in the upper 40s to near 50° seem likely.  So any outdoor activities should be in good shape this weekend… you’ll just need a coat for the chill in the air.

Have a great Wednesday afternoon, and a great 2nd half of the week!

Thursday Discussion : The Winter of Near Miss

Another early spring day in paradise, Hudson Valley. Sunshine and blue skies will carry us through the afternoon, with some high clouds filtering in before sunset. Afternoon highs should top out in the upper 40s to low 50s…. which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
 
Clouds will increase tonight and Friday, as an upper level low pressure system moves in from the west. At the same time, a low pressure over the Atlantic Ocean is too far away to impact our area. These two features will interact, and create a band of snow along an inverted trough. Guidance strongly suggests this band of snow will be focused off to our west, over eastern PA and NJ. We’ll have to monitor the situation, to see this band shifts east, toward the Hudson Valley Friday afternoon and evening. But as it stands now, this is a minimal impact situation for our area. Maybe some scattered rain showers Friday afternoon and wet snow showers Friday night.
 
Otherwise… the pattern remains quiet, as we near the end of our Non-Winter 2019-2020 season. Have a great Thursday afternoon!

Monday Discussion : Gorgeous March Afternoon

A fantastic first Monday of March across the Hudson Valley, with sunshine and blue skies, and temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60°! An excellent afternoon to get outside and exercise, or run errands that you may have been putting off.
 
We’ll have some clouds advancing this afternoon, ahead of some spotty showers this evening and overnight. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies through Tuesday and into Wednesday, with a few spot showers here and there. So make sure you plan for the threat of a few showers tonight and Tuesday around the Hudson Valley.
 
Enjoy your afternoon!

Friday Discussion : No End in Sight

Winter’s brief return to the Hudson Valley has added quite the chill to the region. Strong west winds gusting over 30mph at times are going to make temps in the low to mid 30s feel more like the mid 20s… both Friday and Saturday afternoon. We could even see a few snow flurries, or a brief snow shower on Saturday around the region (especially in the Catskills).
 
The cold holds on for the first day of March on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s… and wind chills in the 20s… under mostly sunny skies. But by Monday, winds shift around to the SW and milder air returns to the region for the start of the work week… with highs back into the upper 40s and low 50s. The first half of the week will see highs likely in the 50s, as a couple weak pieces of energy spread rain showers around the region.
 
The overall mild pattern continues… with no true end in sight.  Just these little brief interruptions of cold air.  Have a great Friday afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion : Pea Soup on the Menu

Late Morning Discussion

The weather continues to be exceedingly mild for February. After a gorgeous day on Monday, clouds and scattered showers rolled in on Tuesday, and now we’re stuck in ‘pea soup’ for our Wednesday.

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The radar reflects as much, with the image showing a few spotty rain showers in the northern Hudson Valley, and patchy drizzle and fog around the rest of the region. This will continue to be the story through the afternoon and evening, with a light SE wind and temperatures in the low to mid 40s on average.

As the storm passes by to our north tonight, the cold front will approach around midnight. This will mean increasing number and intensity of rain showers around the Hudson Valley after midnight. A period of soaking moderate to heavy rain is likely between 12am and 6am… even a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out. So a stormy morning commute may be an issue, as the front will be moving through just around sunrise.

Behind that, the winds will howl out of the west. Expect a very windy Thursday around the region, with clearing skies. Temps will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday, before tumbling in the afternoon. But you might want to secure any loose objects this afternoon… because things will really be gusty during the afternoon on Thursday.

Have a great Wednesday!!

Digging Through Data : What Happened to Winter?

It’s beginning to feel like we’re not needed.  As if Hudson Valley Weather can shut down operations, pack up our stuff, and get on the next train out of the region.  Winter, has simply been a figment of our imagination.  Normal February snowfall in Poughkeepsie, is 12.8 inches for the month.  As of this post… Poughkeepsie has 0.9″ of snowfall in February…

This is pretty incredible.  A whopping 0.9″ of snow for the month of February so far… and lets be up front, the odds of accumulating snowfall in Poughkeepsie prior to March 1st, are not very good at all.  So it’s entirely conceivable that the map above will not change much by the end of February.

Where has all the snow been?  Well… let’s look at temperatures since the start of 2020.  What have the temperatures looked like for January and February so far?…

The picture is beginning to look clearer by the moment.  Temperatures for the first 53 days of 2020 are running roughly 6.5° above average.  January finished 7.5° above average at the Poughkeepsie reporting station, and the month of February after 21 days, is 5.5° above average.  It’s going to be extremely difficult to get any accumulating snowfall when temperatures are this warm.  December was near average… both in terms of temperatures (0.2° above average) and snowfall (10.9″… 2.2 inches above average).  But ever since December ended… winter has been no where to be found. When we look at the Meteorological winter as a whole, it’s ultimately about +4.1°.  The Poughkeepsie historical average for meteorological winter (Dec., Jan., Feb.) is 28.8°.  That puts this winter currently at the 9th warmest winter on record (as of 2/19/20).   

 

Since we turned the calendar to 2020, we’ve seen a stunningly low 3.5″ of snow in Poughkeepsie.  Normally over that time we should have seen 24.7″ of snow.  Meaning so far in Janauary and February, we’ve seen a measley 14.1% of our average snowfall.  So when we stack this winter up against the last 29 years… how does it shake out?

If the winter ended today, this winter would be the 3rd least snowy winter in roughly the last 30 years.  In 2015-2016, a meek 10.4″ of snow fell in Poughkeepsie, in the winter of 94-95 a meager 12.0″ of snow fell in Poughkeepsie.  So far this winter… only 14.4″ of snow has fallen in Poughkeepsie.  That’s almost 30″ below the average of 42.71″ in Poughkeepsie.  So while this winter isn’t the record warmest, or record lowest in terms of snowfall… it’s clearly, starkly, well below average in snowfall… and above average in terms of temperature.

This winter has not gone the way we anticipated back in the fall.  So many variables have not unfolded as expected, that it will take quite some time to determine why it’s been so warm this winter.  But no matter how the pattern shakes out for the remaining month or so of winter, we will be here with you to break down the details and forecast it with you.  Thank you for your continued support!

Weekend Outlook : Mild Pattern Continues

Winter returned for a couple days on Thursday and Friday… with temperatures actually a couple degrees below average.  But as we’ve seen so many times this winter… it didn’t last for long, and our weekend weather will witness a return of milder temperatures.  Highs on Saturday climbed into the 40s, under a mostly sunny sky.  As we look at Sunday… it looks like more of the same, with highs climbing into the low 50s for the lower half of the region!  That’s roughly 10° above average for this time of year… something we’ve said numerous times over the past 2 months.

As we look forward into the final week of February, don’t expect many changes.  Mild air will carry us into Monday and Tuesday, before our next storm system approaches for mid week.  Some colder air will try to work into the system, but likely not until the back end of the storm is pushing through.  So once again, this means likely a rain event for the Hudson Valley.  If this happens… Poughkeepsie might not even get to 1″ of snow for the entire month.  Incredible stuff.

At least plans won’t be interfered with by the weather… that’s the bright side to this incredibly mild air.  Have a great weekend.