It’s that time of year. That weekend in late June, where many of the regional schools have their graduation. That’s going to mean lots of outdoor parties and events… so the weather is of extra importance to many of us this weekend. Unfortunately, things are looking less than optimal… so let’s take a look.
Things are starting out OK, with mostly sunny skies early. But we’ll have clouds advancing into the region through the day. Temps will be right near normal… a few degrees on either side of 80°. Here’s a snapshot of the futurecast radar for 6pm, right around the time many evening ceremonies may be starting…
The map shows lots of high and mid level clouds in the region, which means that breaks of sun will be decreasing toward sunset, but what we don’t see on this image, is rain showers. So despite the increasing clouds… it looks like we stay dry. Making for a decent Friday evening.
Unfortunately, things go down hill on Saturday. Let’s start with taking a look at the simulated radar for the day on Saturday…
Futurecast Radar: 5am to 8pm Saturday
Any time we see a setup like this beyond 24 hours, we strongly suggest not focusing on the details. The reason, is that the details of the timing will likely change. But for now, the futurecast suggests a period of rain with thunderstorms at sunrise on Saturday across the region. By late morning… the steady rain showers appear to exit the Hudson Valley… but clouds, spot rain showers and areas of drizzle seem to last through much of the afternoon.
What we’ve seen, many times, is that these weather patterns cause the guidance to struggle with timing and placement of rain showers. The exact timing of the rain showers may change… but you can see that it’s going to be unsettled for most of the day. Anyone with outdoor plans for Saturday, will likely have to dodge the threat of rain showers all day. Temps will also be held down by the clouds and showers… with highs struggling to reach the low 70s in many places. Here’s the total projected rainfall from sunrise on Saturday thru sunrise on Sunday.
Things on Sunday don’t look too much better. The guidance has periods of light to moderate rain push through the Hudson Valley for much of the day. The timing of the showers on Sunday, likely won’t be reliable until Saturday evening. What is more reliable, is the total rainfall projected for the 24 hours from sunrise on Sunday through sunrise on Monday…
This allows us to look at a more generalized period of time… a 24 hour window… instead of trying to focus on an exact timing. This map suggests that periods of light rain showers are focused on the northern half of the Hudson Valley. It also suggests that the further south you go, the less rain you might see. The reason for these assumptions is that we see a general 0.2 to 0.6 inches of rain focused from the I-84 corridor on north… and that once you get south of I-287, the measurable rainfall is near 0.0″.
Now, over the next day or two, the guidance will try to iron out exactly when the rain falls… and where it will fall. So it’s not worth getting focused on the details of when the rain will fall, and where it will fall. For instance, your weather app that says “Cloudy at 12pm Saturday” and “Showers at 2pm Saturday”… is unreliable. If you have plans from 12 to 2pm, you cannot infer that you might be ‘in the clear’. Because the details could surely change, and shift the rain threat earlier… or later for that matter.
We know this is upsetting for many people with important plans, but it’s worth sharing. With widespread instability, and no organized widespread area of rain expected… the spotty rain showers are too small and localized to pinpoint their exact timing and location. So anyone using a weather app may find themselves pulling their hair out, seeing the forecast for Saturday at 12pm change 2 or 3 times on Saturday.
Unfortunately, the best bet at this point, is to plan for the general pattern each day… and that’s unsettled, with the threat of light rain showers, areas of drizzle… and even some localized downpours. The weekend looks unsettled, Hudson Valley… we’re sorry we don’t have better news. We’ll try to provide updates through the weekend, to let you know when we think the best chances for rain are. Thanks for all your support!