Saturday Afternoon Discussion : Relief is on the Way

The oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity is on the way out of the region on this Saturday, but it’s going to take some time for the cooler and drier air mass to settle in.
Winds have shifted out of the northwest this afternoon, but the humidity is being stubborn to exit. Temperatures as of mid day are generally in the low to mid 80s around the Hudson Valley, but dew points are still in the low 70s. That is generating ‘real feel’ heat index values like you see on this graphic…. in the upper 80s and low 90s. A few pop up spot rain showers and sprinkles are popping up on radar… so we can’t rule out a brief light shower this afternoon. But for the majority of the Hudson Valley, the afternoon looks mostly cloudy but dry.
 
As we go through the afternoon and evening, we’ll begin to feel the impact of the NW wind, as it ushers in drier air, and some cooler temperatures. Overnight lows are likely to fall into the upper 50s with low humidity under partly cloudy skies. Then on Sunday, clouds will mix with sunshine, with northwest winds. That will allow for afternoon highs around 80° with dew points in the 50s, making for a MUCH more comfortable 2nd half of the weekend.
 
You can find the full forecast on the website www.hudsonvalleyweather.com . But hang on… relief is on the way. Have a great afternoon everyone.

Friday Discussion : Heat Advisory once More

..HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to 104.
* WHERE…The Entire Hudson Valley.
* WHEN…Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The highest heat index values will occur in
the afternoon to early evening hours.
Instructions: A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any length of time. Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures. Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.
 
—— HVW Commentary ——-
One more day of extreme heat and humidity. Dew points again today will climb into the low and mid 70s. When we combine that with temps in the low 90s… that will make for ‘real feel’ heat index values around 100° to 105° once more. The guidance suggests Friday won’t be as oppressive as Thursday, but it will still be very uncomfortable. A cold front approaches late tonight and Saturday morning. That will touch off some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The timing of the front arrival will minimize our severe weather threat with the passage of the front, but expect the chance of a shower or thunderstorm through mid day on Saturday. So Saturday doesn’t look as hot, but it will be a transition day… because we’ll start off very warm and very muggy… but the drier and cooler air will move in through the afternoon… slowly making it more comfortable toward evening. Saturday night however… looks to see wonderful sleeping weather, with lows in the 50s expected.
 
Have a great Friday, and stay cool!

Thursday Discussion : Excessive Heat Warning

When the heat and humidity are resulting in Excessive Heat Warnings, there isn’t much that we can add, so we will just share the National Weather Service advisory.  Please use extreme caution and be safe…

***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY ***
…EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY
…HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED…
* WHAT…For the Excessive Heat Warning, dangerously hot
conditions with heat index values up to 106 expected. For the
Excessive Heat Watch, dangerously hot conditions with heat index
values over 105 possible.
* WHERE…The Entire Hudson Valley.
* WHEN…For the Excessive Heat Warning, from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT
Thursday. For the Excessive Heat Watch, from Friday morning
through Friday evening.
* IMPACTS…Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
activities.
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Wednesday Discussion : Dangerous Heat Next 3 Days

*** HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT ***
?? EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ??
* WHAT…For the Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 105
degrees expected. For the first Excessive Heat Watch on
Thursday, dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up
to 110 degrees possible. For the second Excessive Heat Watch on
Friday, dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
105 degrees possible.
* WHERE… THE ENTIRE HUDSON VALLEY.
* WHEN…For the Heat Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM
EDT this evening. For the first Excessive Heat Watch, from
Thursday morning through Thursday evening. For the second
Excessive Heat Watch, from Friday morning through Friday
evening.
* IMPACTS…Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
activities.
Instructions: Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Be prepared to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air- conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
An Excessive Heat Watch means that the combination of heat and humidity could create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible, and drink plenty of water. Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health conditions are at increased risk. Homes without air conditioning can be much hotter than outdoors. Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members and neighbors. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.
*HVW Commentary*
The humidity in place the next couple days will be oppressive.  The models had some uncertainty regarding the air temperatures over the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday period.

Monday Afternoon Discussion : Heat Returns for 2nd Half of the Week

The first week of August was cool, compared to seasonal averages. Temps in the Hudson Valley were about 5° to 8° below average, thanks to a Canadian air mass ushered in by an upper level trough in the jet stream.
Temperatures vs Average : First Week of August

This week, the trough has weakened, and is being replaced by a combination of an upper level ridge of high pressure over eastern Canada and a developing Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean. The developing ridge over eastern North America will shift our flow to the southwest by mid week, and that will cause both temperatures and humidity levels to rise considerably by Wednesday. That means we’ll likely see a heat wave in the Hudson Valley for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Afternoon Heat Index Values: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Each day is likely to see hazy sunshine mixing with clouds, along with the potential of a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Afternoon highs Wed., Thu., and Fri. are likely to be 90° to 95°, and when we factor in the higher humidity levels, the heat index values between 95° and 100° are expected. We wouldn’t even be surprised to see a few heat index values over 100°… especially Thursday and Friday afternoon. So be sure to plan for summer heat and humidity for the 2nd half of the week. Heat Advisories will be likely… and you’re going to want to use extra caution, to avoid heat exhaustion from setting in.
 
More details as we get closer… but after a cool start to August, things are about to heat up.

Friday Afternoon Discussion : The Weekend Outlook

TGIF Hudson Valley! A quiet weather week is just about in the books, as we look to the first full weekend of August. This past week was quiet and cool, at least by early August standards… with the Hudson Valley being about 5 or 6 degrees below average.
US Temperatures Vs. Average : August 1 – 4
That is about to change, as we see a bit of a change in the jet stream pattern. The trough that brought cool and dry air to the region has weakened and is being replaced by a building ridge of high pressure over SE Canada. This combined with a Bermuda high, will shift our flow from NW to SW, and mean a return of warmer temperatures and elevated humidity levels.
The Forecast:
This weekend, expect a mix of clouds and sunshine both on Saturday and Sunday. Early morning temps in the upper 60s will climb into the mid 80s by early afternoon… with both Saturday and Sunday seeing highs likely in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels will be higher than recent days, but still moderately comfortable. So ‘real feel’ heat index values should stay in the mid to upper 80s both days.

Sunday Forecast High Temperatures:
Late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, we could see an area of rain showers push through the Hudson Valley. Chances of this are happening are about 50%… so check back Saturday afternoon and evening to see if this looks more or less likely. In addition, both Saturday and Sunday will also feature a chance of an isolated afternoon shower or T-Storm, as a result of the heating of the day. Chances of an afternoon T-Storm are low… likely around 30% each afternoon, so just be aware of the possibility.
 
Looking to next week, the seasonable warmth will stick around. The Bermuda high will keep us on the warm side of things, with afternoon highs expected in the mid to upper 80s for the first half of the week… possibly even reaching 90°. Humidity levels will also be higher, so heat index values in the upper 80s to low, or even mid 90s are possible by the middle of next week. So the summer time temperatures will stick around for at least a few days.
Tuesday Forecast High Temperatures:
 
We’ll keep eyes on the pattern through the weekend, and share any updates as they come. Otherwise, we hope everyone has a wonderful Friday afternoon, and excellent start to the weekend!!

Monday Discussion : Spring, Summer or Fall?

After the passage of the cold front on Sunday evening, the Hudson Valley and Northeast will clear out, and give way to a fantastic day of weather on Monday…

A deep eastern trough will usher in some cool, Canadian air to the Hudson Valley on Monday.  NW winds will bring in low humidity, and temperatures that are relatively cool for this time of year.  Average highs this time of year are in the mid 80s, but on Monday we’ll fall 5 to 10 degrees short of that mark.  Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s will be accompanied by partly to mostly sunny skies.  Monday afternoon will feel much more like late spring… or early autumn, rather than the peak of summer.  Either way… the weather on Monday will only get in your way if you planned on swimming… and even then, you might be able to make it work.

This mild air mass will be held in place for Tuesday and Wednesday… giving us highs that are about 5° below average for this time of year.  This is all due to a deep trough over the eastern US, allowing a mild/cool Canadian air mass to sink into the region.

The massive ridge out west has given the western US and Canada a persistent multi-month stretch of intense heat.  That ridge has been in place for much of the summer.  The trough in the east, however… has come to visit once or twice this summer, and is here once more.  The trough allows for the crisp Canadian air mass to filter into our region.  Making it feel more like the end of May, or late September.  Hopefully everyone can take advantage of the air mass while it’s here this week.  The trough will weaken through the week, and by Thursday and Friday possibly allow a coastal low pressure to climb northward.  If that happens, periods of rain are possible Thursday night into early Friday.  But we’ll keep an eye on that as we get closer.

Until then… we hope everyone has a wonderful start to the work week!

Friday Discussion : Beautiful Start to the Weekend

We dodged any severe weather on Thursday, and instead just had some rain showers and breezy conditions to contend with.  In the wake of that front… some outstanding weather to close out the week, and start the weekend…

The cold front pushed through overnight, and you’ll notice a persistent NW breeze today, that will usher in cooler, dryer air.  Temps in the upper 70s to near 80°  will likely fall a couple degrees this afternoon as the cooler air settles in.  Humidity will be erased from the region as well, all thanks to the northwest flow resulting from the trough moving through.  But the bright sunshine and blue skies will carry us through the afternoon, and into tonight.  Tonight, we’ll have mostly clear skies with diminishing NW winds… and temps will tumble overnight.  Lows in the low 50s are expected, even a few upper 40s can’t be ruled out in the colder spots.  Some crisp sleeping weather coming overnight.

Then Saturday looks just as stellar as Friday.  Sunshine and blue skies, with a northwest breeze.  Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected for Saturday, which is a solid 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year (avg high 84°).  Then again Saturday night, temps tumble into the 50s, and a crisp night of sleeping weather is expected.

Sunday looks a bit more unsettled, as a low pressure over the mid-Atlantic tries to get its act together.  Winds will shift out of the south, and clouds will move in Sunday morning.  Temps likely in the 70s to near 80° out ahead of what will be mostly cloudy skies Sunday afternoon.  A few scattered rain showers are also possible, but the system does not look particularly well organized.  Something we’ll keep our eyes on.

Futurecast Radar : 7am to 7pm Sunday

So while Sunday looks mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers possible… the day doesn’t look like a total washout.  But for our best weather, you will certainly be targetting Friday and Saturday this weekend.  Have a great day, and great start to your weekend!

Thursday Discussion : Showers & T-Storms on the Way

Low clouds in the Hudson Valley have kept temperatures cool, in the mid 70s out ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will touch off a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms across the Hudson Valley and the Northeast. As a result, the National Weather Service has parts of our area under Marginal and Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon.
In response, we are issuing a Stormpact map for the afternoon.
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The greatest threat is for areas south of I-84, because the combination of atmospheric shear and instability are greatest. The low clouds will once again aid in stabilizing the atmosphere in the Hudson Valley, minimizing the heat energy available. But the wind shear (wind moving in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere), associated with the cold front will be considerable, and will elevate the threat for wind damage as the front passes through today.
 
For the afternoon, ahead of the front, a few pop up super cell T-Storms can’t be ruled out… however, the low clouds should minimize the development of these. Between 1pm and 3pm the front edge of the showers and embedded T-Storms should move into the Catskills. The majority of the Hudson Valley should see the front edge of the showers and storms arrive between 3pm and 6pm.
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Futurecast Radar: 1pm to 9pm
Guidance suggests gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible with the arrival of the squall line… but the latest guidance suggests that there will not be a large number of strong to severe T-Storm cells. For that reason, our Stormpact graphic has low impact & outages. Remember, however… that while a low number of severe cells are expected, if one occurs, it could contain damaging wind gusts over 50mph, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out (5% chance) with the wind shear today.
 
As always, we will try to share warnings as they are issued this afternoon. Feel free to check back with us as things develop.

Wednesday Afternoon Discussion : Next Front Approaches

A beautiful afternoon around the region, lots of sunshine and blue skies, with temps in the upper 70s to near 80°. Tonight we’ll watch temps fall into the mid 60s for overnight lows… with clouds increasing overnight. That’s because a frontal system will be moving our way from the Great Lakes.
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Futurecast Radar : 8am – 8pm Thursday
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It will spread periods of rain showers and embedded T-Storms into the Hudson Valley during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The low clouds and rain showers will keep us cool… highs on Thursday are only expected to be in the low 70s. The threat of rain showers and embedded T-Storms will last through the afternoon and evening hours… tapering off before midnight most likely. So be sure to plan ahead if you have plans on Thursday… rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder could certainly play a role.