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Monday Discussion : Sunshine Returning, Nice Week Ahead

The work week will start out quiet and comfortable… with no sign of heat and humidity in the Hudson Valley…

We’ll see sunshine increasing across the Hudson Valley, mixing with fair weather clouds at times.  Our winds will be out of the east, as a high pressure begins to strengthen and move off shore, into the Atlantic Ocean.  That will leave us with seasonably cool and comfortable weather.  The average high for this time of year is almost 80° (Poughkeepsie average = 79°).  Along with the slightly cool weather, will be low humidity.  So a taste of late spring setting up to start our week.

In addition, this weather is likely to last through much of the week.  Temps will climb up toward 80° by mid week… right near average, and likely carrying us into the late week.  Aside from a disturbance that will likely move through on Wednesday… it looks like we’ll see a lot of sunshine this week, which based on some of the comments we’ve seen, will be a welcome sight.

Have a great start to the work week!

Sunday Discussion : Sneaky Showers

This time of year, the forecasts are supposed to be easier.  The jet stream pushes north, into Canada, and we usually have tranquil weather… or afternoon showers and thunderstorms depending on the weather pattern.  So stalled out frontal boundaries with rain showers that hug the edges of the Hudson Valley… are not welcome.

The reason is these things require a LOT of attention, and with it being ballet recital season, and outdoor party season… we don’t spend quite so much time analyzing computer model data to generate a picture perfect forecast on a storm system with a sharp cutoff.  Long story short… Sunday doesn’t look as nice as previously expected.

Our earlier post for this weekend showed that the front was expected to sink further south and spare the Hudson Valley.  Of course, as luck would have it, the steering winds were not as strong, and the boundary has drifted further north.  This creates a VERY close call for the lower half of the Hudson Valley…

Futurecast Radar : 8am Sunday – 2am Monday

Notice the soaking rain generally stays southwest of the NY/NJ and NY/PA borders.  But between 12pm and 6pm… rain showers are likely to creep northward, into the lower Hudson Valley.

Now, this radar’s “bark” is likely worse than its “bite” (at least with regard to the Hudson Valley).  The northern edge of the rain is likely to evaporate a bit, and not reach the ground (especially north of I-84).  But areas from I-84 on south, could see periods of light to moderate rain showers this afternoon.  In terms of total rainfall amounts, here are our ideas…

You’ll notice a DRAMATIC cut off from nearly 1 inch of rain just south of the NY/NJ border… to no measurable rainfall in Poughkeepsie.  So it should come as no surprise that the lower half of the Hudson Valley is VERY uncertain with regards to rainfall.  They could see next to no rainfall… or over a half inch… all depending on the exact placement of this band of rain.  Our best guess is shown above… which has areas like Port Jervis, Warwick, and Nyack seeing nearly a half inch of rain.  Areas like Middletown, Newburgh, and Monticello… could see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain this afternoon… it all depends on the exact placement of the rain.

So not the greatest of Sunday afternoons… unless you live north of Monticello, New Paltz and Poughkeepsie.  Those areas will see a lot of clouds, but should remain dry (although a spot shower cant be ruled out).  But the further north you go… the more chances for sunshine you’ll see.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon… no matter what the weather.

Weekend Discussion : The Weather is Looking Great!

We’ve been saying for a couple days that the weekend needed to be watched closely.  Guidance earlier in the week was projecting showers and thunderstorms to be a big factor in our weekend weather.  But a few days ago, we saw signs that suggested it could end up pushing further south.  And now, as luck would have it… things are looking nice and dry.

Let’s start with Friday…

As we move into the afternoon on Friday, we should have a nice warm day on tap.  Humidity levels should remain in check, with a NW flow leading to low dew points, making for a warm… but comfortable afternoon.  There is a slight chance of a pop up shower or T-shower in one or two spots… with just enough atmospheric instability to maybe touch off a spot shower…

You can see that there are a few stray showers on the futurecast radar.  So Friday afternoon activities could have a brief delay.

Weekend Looks Like a Winner!

So remember earlier in the week, where Saturday and Sunday looked like an unsettled and stormy situation.  Then things began to improve.  Then on Thursday, this was the projected weekend rainfall for the Northeast.

Notice that the heavy rain was not far from the Hudson Valley, and that showers were projected to bring light rainfall into our area over the weekend.  Well, here’s the UPDATED MAP, and you’ll notice, things are looking even better locally…

Notice how much further south the precipitation has shifted on the latest guidance.  That means not only does it appear dry, but we should get a good deal of sunshine mixing in as well.  Saturday and Sunday are looking very similar to each other, and here’s how Saturday looks:

Both days are looking very summer like, with highs around 80° or a couple degrees above.  Dew points should be low, in the low to mid 50s across the Hudson Valley.  That should translate into some very comfortable conditions, despite the summer heat.  So anyone with outdoor plans should be very happy with the result!

A great, early summer weekend across the Hudson Valley.  So we hope you’re able to enjoy it!

Thursday Discussion : Weekend Looking Better

A week that has featured a fair amount of cloudiness at times, has been rather dry for the most part.  We’ll see that trend continue as we push closer to the weekend.

Our Thursday looks to see a good deal of cloudiness in the morning, even a spot rain shower or sprinkle in spots.  There should be some sun peeking through the clouds this afternoon, as temperatures climb up around 70° for a high.  Not the nicest of days, but certainly not a bad day either.

Friday looks quite nice… with a mix of sunshine and clouds.  Winds should be out of the NW and that will give us low humidity.  Highs on Friday should be right around 80°… a rather beautiful, summer like, end to the work week.  That leads us into the weekend, where we have some uncertainties.

Saturday starts out with a mix of sunshine and clouds… but the clouds will increase during the day, and we’ll be mostly cloudy for the afternoon.  We’ll watch a storm system clipping eastward from the Great Lakes.  It could contain quite a punch in terms of rainfall amounts and even some thunderstorms.  The big question is how far north or south does this storm track?

This is the European model’s projected Rainfall through the weekend.  The GFS model looks very similar, just a bit further south.  You can see that the bulk of the heavier rainfall is projected to track from Lake Erie & NW PA… southeastward toward SE PA and NJ.  The Hudson Valley could be on the northern edge of the rain showers… especially areas from I-84 on south.

The data is not set in stone, so we’ll need to track the projected path… and we’ll have updates if things begin to look different.  As it stands right now… some scattered rain showers are possible late Saturday afternoon and night… but the rain should have exited the region by Sunday morning.  Sunday is likely to see increasing sunshine, low humidity, and afternoon highs in the mid 70s.  So after an uncertain Saturday afternoon… Sunday is looking quite nice to close out the weekend.

You can find all the latest forecast ideas on our home page, or on our iOS and Android apps.  We’ll share more commentary in another post, if something should change.  Otherwise… have a great Thursday afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Unsettled and Cool

We’ve been stuck in a rut weather wise, unable to kick an unsettled and muggy pattern.  We’re finally seeing things change across the Hudson Valley.  Rain pushed through the region Sunday night into Monday… and now on Tuesday, we’ve got a frontal boundary pushing southward through the area.  We’ll see winds increase out of the west, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass.  A few spotty rain showers can’t be ruled out with the passage of that front.  Highs on Tuesday will push toward 70°, making for a rather comfortable afternoon.

Looking toward the rest of the work week, Wednesday and Thursday should see a mix of clouds and sunshine… along with cooler temps in the upper 60s and low 70s.  Both days could see a sprinkle or rain shower in spots, as the NW flow will have a hint of atmospheric instability.  In general however, the region should be dry both days.

As we near the weekend… we have to be concerned with the threat of rain once again.  We will warm up on Friday, and by Saturday we could be tracking another frontal boundary, that could contain a good deal of rain along with it.  But we’ve got 5 days until then… so a LOT can change, and we’ll monitor the situation to see if it could affect our weekend.  Complete details are on the main page… with the complete forecast details.

Thank you for your continued support… and have a terrific Tuesday (corny weatherman alliteration intentional).

Monday Discussion : Rain Tapers Early, then Improving

After a rather humid weekend across the Hudson Valley, we’ve got a developing coastal low pressure system Sunday night.  This developing nor’easter will spread rain into the Hudson Valley by midnight, and that will last until morning in many areas…

Futurecast Radar: 5pm Sunday – 11am Monday

The rain likely falls steadily through the nighttime hours, but should begin to taper off quickly from west to east after sunrise on Monday.  The Hudson Valley should begin drying out during the mid to late morning hours… and some peeks of sun are possible by noon.

So the afternoon hours on Monday will likely see clouds mixed with sunshine.  The areas where the sun breaks through the clouds will see the temperatures climb into the 70s… where locations that see more low clouds, will see temperatures in the 60s.  So after a damp start on Monday, the afternoon looks like it should be fairly decent.

As we look toward Tuesday, a frontal boundary will begin approaching from the northwest.  That will bring more clouds and scattered rain showers for the morning on Tuesday.  Tuesday looks rather unsettled in general, as the frontal boundary will move slowly, and likely keeps the scattered showers in the region for much of the day.  That will also have an impact on the temperatures… which will likely hold in the 60s as a result of the instability.

So an unsettled start to our work week is likely.  Make sure you have your rain gear handy as we begin the first full week of June.  Have a great Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Cooler and Cloudier

A rather stagnant pattern in the Hudson Valley, has led to quite a few warm days in a row.  Temps in the 80s, along with sticky humidity.  We’ll try to mix things up a bit on Sunday…

Sunshine will mix with increased clouds, as the entire region cools off a bit from.

Clouds will thicken after dark Sunday, and by Monday morning we’ll see areas of rain for the region.  The threat of rain will last into the daylight hours on Monday, so make sure you have your rain gear, as a wet and cool day appears likely to start the week.

Have a nice Sunday.

Saturday Discussion : Heat and Humidity Hold

The heat and humidity have built into the Hudson Valley over the past few days, despite the low clouds and showers.  As we roll into the weekend, things are looking rather hot and steamy…

Clouds and areas of fog should begin mixing with sunshine during the morning, allowing for the temperatures to climb, and the humidity to build.  Unlike Friday, it appears that the bulk of the instability will be south and east of our area… even so, we can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm in our area.  Here’s a look at the simulated radar from Friday night, through 4pm on Saturday…

Futurecast Radar 10pm Friday – 4pm Saturday

On the simulation, it begins with the showers and thunderstorm cluster from Friday night, then things quiet down for Saturday morning before the T-Storms begin popping again with the heating of the day on Saturday.  Notice how the computer guidance keeps the storms mainly out of the Hudson Valley, but they are surely close enough that we will have to dodge the potential isolated T-storm Saturday afternoon.

Looking at the rest of the weekend, Sunday does look similar to Saturday in many ways… before we watch a low pressure system develop Sunday night into Monday, and become a nor’easter.  It is likely to generate considerable cold air and periods of rain, as it moves toward our area.  So Monday is looking potentially cold and raw… with rain and temps in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s.

So outdoor plans on Saturday may do alright after all.  Plan for a hot and humid, summer like day… with a shower or t-storm possible in the afternoon.  Have a great Saturday!

Friday Afternoon Radar Discussion: Isolated T-Showers

The heat humidity have been building across the region today. The early morning fog provided the humidity, and the late spring sunshine is trying to stir up the atmosphere a bit, with temps in the upper 70s to around 80°.

As a result, the radar is beginning to pop with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. We don’t expect any severe weather, but a brief downpour, some thunder and gusty winds are possible. These storms will begin the afternoon in the northern and western Hudson Valley around 2pm… and gradually push south and east as the afternoon progresses. The threat of showers should diminish after dark.

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled SE Flow

Our work week has featured an early taste of summer for most of the region.  Poughkeepsie hit 90° on Tuesday and 82° on Wednesday.  So with a SE flow off the Atlantic Ocean expected on Thursday, expect a lot more cloudiness and much cooler temperatures.

Expect more numerous low clouds the further south you go in the Hudson Valley on Thursday.  There’s a chance that parts of the Catskills could have breaks of sunshine, but that’s about all there will be to look forward to.  SE breezes will keep temperatures held down in the 60s with a kind of raw feel to theair.

Then on Friday, we’ll see some breaks of sunshine likely, but heat and humidity levels will likely jump upward.  Highs should be in the 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s.  That could make for a very sticky feel to our Friday.  An isolated T-Storm can’t be ruled out.  But we’ll have to look closer at that Thursday evening.

Our unsettled weather appears likely to extend into the weekend, but the 5 day forecast covers all of that, which you can find on our main page.  Have a great Thursday!