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Tuesday Outlook : Merry Christmas

A very Merry Christmas, Hudson Valley!  We hope you have a wonderful day with family and friends!  In terms of the weather, things will be quiet and seasonable across the region.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected all across the valley.  In addition, afternoon highs should be approaching average… which is in the upper 30s, meaning weather won’t be a factor in your plans for Christmas day.

Our next threat of unsettled weather appears to be Thursday night and Friday, as a major storm system will push into the Midwest.  This will bring warming temperatures and a chance of rain by Thursday night.  Unlike the previous storm system, rainfall amounts look to be closer to a half inch.  So flooding concerns should be minimal.

Once we move into the New Year, we should gradually see the potential for a more wintry pattern… but we’ll have more on that in the next day or two.  We’re hoping to do a video discussion on the potential long range pattern.

Merry Christmas everyone… we thank you tremendously, for all your continued support!

I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas Eve…

Anyone dreaming of a White Christmas, will have to settle for a White Christmas Eve.  A weak disturbance will move into the Hudson Valley around midnight tonight… spreading light snow showers around the region.  Expect periods of light snow around the region from roughly 12am to 7am, Monday morning.
Temperatures will be roughly 30° to 34° during that time, and snow will accumulate on most surfaces.  Snow will struggle to stick to roadways initially… but toward morning, untreated roads could be snow covered and icy in spots… especially higher elevations.  Take it a bit slow if you’re travelling toward sunrise.
Snow amounts are expected to be a coating to 1 inch in general… but there is likely to be a rather narrow band of slightly heavier snow showers, where up to 2 inches of snow could fall.  In the Catskills, up to 3 inches could fall in a few spots, due to the elevation enhanced snowfall.
 
Everything tapers off between 6am and 10am on Monday, and the sun will mix in during the afternoon.  Highs on Monday will be around 40°, which should cause most of what snow does fall… to melt.  But hopefully it is a festive touch to the holiday season for most.

Weekend Discussion : Christmas Eve Snow

We’ve seen record breaking warmth in the last 24 hours… with Poughkeepsie setting a new record of 62°, breaking the old record of 61°… set in 1957.  But the cold front has brought temps crashing back to reality… and blustery conditions have returned to the Hudson Valley.

Now the primary question on everyone’s mind… is “Can we still get a White Christmas?” … and as luck would have it, we’re going to get some snow just in time to make for a festive Christmas Eve.

A weak shortwave (disturbance) will push toward the northeast Sunday evening.  It will have just enough lift in the atmosphere to touch off some snow showers… and bring us a fresh dusting of snow in time for Christmas Eve.

Futurecast Radar: 6pm Sunday – 10am Monday

After sunset on Sunday, some light snow showers will develop across the Hudson Valley… and light snow is expected between 9pm Sunday and 6am Monday.  The snows look light, and not very well organized.  But a general dusting to 2 inches is likely… with some towns possibly seeing as much as 3 inches of snow by sunrise on Monday.

Temperatures will be right around 30°, so snow may struggle to stick to paved surfaces initially… but a fresh coating of snow likely awaits us when we wake up Christmas Eve morning.  Great for getting everyone fully into the holiday spirit!

The only issue for anyone wanting a White Christmas… is can we hang on to the snow through the day on Monday?  Or will the snow melt in the sunshine and temperatures around 40°?  It’s likely that most valley areas will see the snow melt on Monday, most of it anyway… because temps will be above freezing.  But if the sunshine is limited, and temps hover closer to freezing Monday afternoon… we may be able to hang onto the snow to give us a White Christmas.

We’ll have to keep our eyes on it… and see how it unfolds!

Thursday Evening Radar Discussion : Stormy Night Ahead

The radar is only beginning to become active, with a lot more rain to come.  These are mainly light rain showers scattered about the region… with temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s.  A very stormy night lies ahead of us.
For the next several hours, expect increasing and heavier rain showers developing.  By midnight, a steady light to moderate rain is expected across the Hudson Valley… with heavier downpours possible at times.  In addition, a strong South wind will do 2 things…
1… cause temperatures to surge overnight, climbing into the 50s by morning, and possibly rising near 60° Friday afternoon.
2… bring strong wind gusts upwards of 30mph at times, possibly causing sporadic down trees and spotty power outages… especially in the Catskills.
 
The steady to heavy rain will be with us through the AM commute, most likely becoming more scattered in nature toward mid day on Friday.  But the threat of showers will be with us into Saturday.  Rainfall amounts by mid day on Friday, could be between 1 and 2 inches… with up to 3 inches possible in the lower Hudson Valley and Catskills.  Batten down the hatches, Hudson Valley… we have a stormy night ahead.

Thursday Outlook : The Storm Approaches

Our winds will shift out of the south on Thursday, ushering in some warmer air to the Hudson Valley.  Temps on Thursday will climb into the mid and upper 40s during the afternoon, out ahead of the rainfall heading our way.

Summary:
– Rain showers develop near sunset
– Rain steady toward midnight
– Rain heavy at times overnight… Flash Flood Watch
– Rain soaked Friday AM commute… 1 to 3 inches of rain possible

Rainfall will develop from south to north near sunset.  Rain showers of varying intensity will be with us through the overnight, and fall heavy at times after midnight.  Showers should begin to taper down Friday afternoon… but not before a lot of rainfall falls on the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar: 1pm Thursday – 1pm Friday

You can see the conveyor belt of moisture that is expected to set up just over the Hudson Valley, from 12am to 12pm Friday.  Some very soggy conditions are likely for the Friday AM commute.  So much so, that a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Hudson Valley.

Projected Rainfall: NAM model

Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible Thursday night and Friday morning.  Some higher locations could exceed 3 inches, where the topography enhances the upward motion, and by default… enhances the rainfall totals.  We’ll have updates on the Facebook page as the storm begins over our area.  But suffice to say… heavy rain will be an issue in the overnight into early morning Friday hours

Strong… Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts

Also not to be taken too lightly… will be the wind gusts Thursday night into Friday.  With the proximity of the low pressure to the coast… a STRONG SE flow will set up.  This will translate into gusts over 30mph being possible.  We can’t rule out spotty power outages, because the winds will be gusting strong at times.  Areas that are prone to lose power in windy conditions… may want to plan for the potential of power outages.

Mid Week Discussion : More Rain Heading Our Way

After a sharp, crisp start to the month of December… things have moderated just a bit.  The pattern over North America has been more off the Pacific Ocean, instead of originating out of the arctic.  So after the first 10 days of December…

Things have moderated, and are closer to average for this time of year…

So clearly, the country (and Hudson Valley) are not as cold as we were a week or so ago.  In addition, when we look at the coming 10 days… we will very likely close out the month of December with temperatures that are above average for this time of year…

So by the time we get to the end of December, it’s likely that we’ll be near normal… to a bit above average for the month as a whole.  We’ll have to see how it plays out over the next several days.

Soaking Rainfall on the Way: Thursday Night – Friday

With a westerly jet stream off the Pacific Ocean… and no ridge out west to force the storm off the east coast… we’re going to see the storm track inland, up the Appalachians.  That will mean more rain for our area.

The low pressure will approach Thursday evening, and spread rain into the region near or just after sunset on Thursday.  Rain showers will be with us through the night Thursday, and into Friday morning.  Friday looks unsettled and mild… with temps well into the 50s.  Rainfall totals over 1 inch are surely possible, so stay tuned for more information as we get closer.

Those questioning about the potential for some light snow near Christmas… the odds are very much against it.  But there is a slight chance, that a weak disturbance could whiten the ground on Christmas Eve.  If we had to put a percentage on it… we’d say there is roughly a 10% to 20% chance at this point.  But we’ll see if things begin to look more favorable as we get closer.

For now… have a great Wednesday!

Sunday Discussion : Cold Rain Ends as Slushy Snow

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire region on Sunday.  Temperatures are tumbling into the 30s overnight Saturday, and by sunrise on Sunday, temperatures will be low to mid 30s.  At the same time, moisture will climb into the region from the south.  The result could be some icy spots with the onset of the rain.

Summary:
– Rain develops between 4am and 8am, mixing with freezing rain in spots
– Localized icy conditions possible, in traditional colder valleys
– Scattered rain showers through the afternoon
– Wet snow mixing in from 5pm through midnight
– Slick conditions possible into Monday AM

Futurecast Radar: 7am Sunday – 7am Monday

Looking at the futurecast radar, the Hudson Valley sees rain in the region by sunrise on Sunday.  There could be some sleet mixing in near sunrise, as the precipitation falls heavy for a time.  But you’ll notice that the rain showers begin to be spotty in nature.  So instead of a steady rain all afternoon… it appears likely to be cloudy with periods of light rain showers.  Some spotty icy spots are possible… but based on the temperatures should be in the mid 30s for most locations…

If this model is accurate… and it’s usually the best data in this time frame… widespread freezing rain does not appear to be a problem.  There definitely will be pockets of icy conditions, as you can see by the highlighted colder areas where temps could be below freezing.  But a cold rain appears to be the primary concern.  With that said… with a concern for freezing rain… you never want to let your guard down.  Be prepared for some slick spots in the morning on Sunday.

But as the day progresses, the low pressure will develop off shore, and we’ll see colder air begin to return into the atmosphere… changing rain showers to wet snow from NW to SE near and after sunset.  But once again, temperatures will be near to above freezing.  So snowfall accumulation will be difficult, with a lot melting on contact…

Indications are that a slushy coating to an inch in spots should about do it.  Now, if the cold air is a bit faster… and surface temperatures fall below freezing before the snow exits the area… an inch or two can’t be ruled out.  But guidance is suggesting that accumulations are primarily in higher elevations (above 800ft).  We’ll have to see how it unfolds.

Check for updates on Facebook through the day on Sunday.  Have a great day!

Saturday Discussion : Sunday Showers and Sneaky Ice

A large storm system over the southeast US has spread some light rain showers into the Hudson Valley over the last 24 hours.  But a strong high pressure over New England is battling back, and pushing the moisture back south of the region.  However, this resistance will be only temporary, as the moisture will begin advancing northward once again… late on Saturday night.  When the moisture returns, it appears it may do so in the form of ice for parts of the area.

Summary:

– 4am to 9am Sunday: light freezing rain and rain develops (mixed with sleet)
– Hudson Valley likely warms above freezing (33° to 37°) and wintry mix changes to cold rain for most
– Icy conditions possible Sunday morning, untreated surfaces could be icy and slick
– Icy conditions could persist into afternoon for northern areas and sheltered valleys.

You can see the large area of moisture to our southwest, that will begin pushing northward once again Saturday night.  At the same time, the flow around the high pressure in New England is pulling low level cold air down into the Hudson Valley.  So as the moisture and cold air collide over the Hudson Valley, we could see areas of freezing rain and sleet develop… in addition to the cold rain showers.  This could cause some icy spots by early morning on Sunday… especially as you go further north in the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

Futurecast Radar: 12am Sunday to 12am Monday

It appears that the icy conditions will be most widespread between 5am and 12pm on Sunday morning.  The region will see temperatures around 30° to 34° as the sun rises on Sunday.  With light rain showers falling into the cold air… the rain will likely freeze on untreated surfaces for a time.  But the valley should warm above freezing between 7am and 10am… and a plain, cold rain is likely for most of the valley.  The traditionally colder spots in the valleys of the Catskills and the upper Hudson Valley, could see the freezing rain and sleet linger, and persist into the afternoon.  The rain is likely to be light in general… lasting through the daylight hours on Sunday.

Possibly ending as Snow?…

As the system begins to push offshore and deepen… it could pull some colder air back into the Hudson Valley.  The result could be the rain/mix tapering off and ending as a period of wet snow Sunday night.  It does not look like a significant event, but it could provide some slushy coatings to half inch amounts… especially in the Catskills and northern HV.

The timing of the cold air rushing in behind the system, and the exit of the moisture… will be key.  It’s very possible that by the time the air is cold enough to support snow, that the moisture has exited the region… leaving us with no snow at all.  We’ll have to monitor the timing… and if it will have any impact on the Monday AM commute.

We’ll try to have updates as we go… especially on the Facebook page.  Thank you for your continued support.  You guys are AWESOME!

Friday Discussion : Clouds, Milder, and Evening Showers

After a wintry Thursday across the region, Friday will see temperatures moderate… but skies will remain gray.

Temps held around 30° all day on Thursday, with a persistent light snow shower around portions of the Hudson Valley.  Some places saw barely a dusting… others saw a half inch… and in the Catskills we had an inch or two in spots.  But as Friday unfolds, we’ll see winds shift out of the southeast.  That will bring milder air into the Hudson Valley, along with the threat of patchy drizzle and gray skies.  Afternoon highs in the mid 40s are likely for the majority of the valley.

But we’re tracking a storm system over the southeast US, that originally appeared likely to become a nor’easter… bringing significant rain for the Hudson Valley Friday night into Saturday.  Now, however… the system may remain suppressed to our south… meaning only some spotty showers and drizzle Friday evening in our region.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Friday through 12pm Saturday

You’ll notice that late on Friday afternoon, the rain showers are approaching the Hudson Valley.  At the same time, however… an area of high pressure to our north is pushing south.  That influence should help steer the moisture to our south and off the east coast on Friday night.  That means only a few light rain showers and areas of patchy drizzle in the Hudson Valley.  We’ll have to monitor the situation, to see if this holds true.

The storm doesn’t entirely exit the United States, however… and could make a 2nd approach into the Hudson Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We’ll have to keep our eye on this… because the big high pressure that keeps us mostly dry on Friday night… will generate a cold NE wind into the Hudson Valley.  That cold air at the surface could cause some icy spots on Sunday morning… we’ll have to watch it unfold on Friday and into Saturday.

A tricky 72 hours of weather for us to monitor.  But we hope for now, that you have a great Friday!  Thank you for continuing to support HVW.

Going above and beyond….
We have had numerous inquiries in the past couple months… asking how people can support the work we do.  For those who have asked how they can support us… you will find a “PayPal” button in the banner on the bottom right side of each web page.  We’ve had many requests asking for this information, and it truly blows us away!  We can’t thank you enough, and genuinely just appreciate everyone interacting with us, and spreading the word about what we do at HVW.  But for those who feel moved to financially support the work we do… this is the way you can do that.  Thank you so much!!

Thursday Discussion : Snow Foolin’

Happy Thursday, Hudson Valley!  Even when Mother Nature tries to bring a fresh coating of light snow to the Hudson Valley… something gets in the way to muck up the plans.  The light snow showers that have had everyone a buzz the last 24 hours, may end up being more bark than bite.

8am Radar Loop

The radar shows the light snow showers moving over the Hudson Valley at this hour, but if you look outside across the region, you won’t see more than a few flurries in most spots at this point.  The reason… is two fold.

1st… this system is not really much of a storm at all.  It’s a weak warm front that will move through the northeast today, with minimal moisture associated with it.  The atmospheric lift associated with the warm front was expected to generate the scattered light snow showers, but they were anticipated to be very light and scattered… just like you see on radar.  Even if this were the only issue… we were talking about a dusting to an inch or so, but…

2nd… there is considerable dry air at the mid levels of the atmosphere.  Go up in the air about 5000 feet, and the air is very dry.  That’s because of a STRONG high pressure that continues to hold ground over New England.

So really, we may see some scattered flurries and snow showers today.  A dusting to a half inch is possible in some places… but don’t be surprised if you don’t even get that in many locations.

So expect some cloudy and cold conditions, with scattered snow showers and flurries.  There could be a burst or two where snow comes down steady for a bit in locations… but most of us will just see a nuisance dusting in spots.