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Saturday Discussion : The Winds of Change

After a surprise band of showers and thunderstorms developed south of I-84 Friday evening, things have dried out around the region.  Winds out of the NW will blow at 10 to 15mph on Saturday, gusting over 25mph at times.  That’s going to make the temperatures in the mid 40s feel quite a bit colder than they are.  Wind chills in the 30s through the day, will make for quite a notable change from Friday’s highs around 70° in the region.

So howling NW winds on Saturday will serve up a reminder that while Friday felt like Spring had sprung… that Old Man Winter has just a little bit of fight left.  Make sure you grab the winter coat, and bundle up.  Have a great Saturday!

Friday Evening Discussion : Surprise Storms

With unseasonably warm days early in spring, sometimes you get an unstable air mass, that becomes unpredictable.  That’s what we’re seeing tonight, with this line of showers and thunderstorms, that resemble something you might expect to see in mid May, rather than mid March.

8pm Radar Loop

Guidance didn’t pick up on this threat until the last minute, and its caught just about everyone by surprise.  The frontal boundary that will shift the winds out of the northwest tonight, and bring us a return to some seasonably cold air… has capitalized on unseasonably warm, moist air mass.  The clash of air masses, has provided the perfect area for development of this line of thunderstorms.  Wind gusts over 50mph, and small hail have been indicated on radar, as well as locally heavy rains.  Likely the most notable feature is the frequent lightning associated with some of the storms, that is providing quite the light show for our southern viewers.

Unfortunately, this comes with some undesirable consequences.  Reports of low visibility, due to warm advection fog… resulting from the warm air over areas of cold snow pack and heavy rain.  Clogged drains are also leading to areas of urban flooding, and ponding on roadways, so be sure to use extra caution while driving tonight.

This line of showers and thunderstorms should exit the region over the next hour or two, clearing the region entirely before midnight.  Areas over 1″ of rain can’t be ruled out, with these downpours continuing over the same areas for an extended period of time.

Thursday Discussion : Milder Mix

We’ve got sunshine mixing with clouds across the region, as we watch milder air push northward, into the Hudson Valley. Temps around the region are quickly climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s as of mid day…
Poughkeepsie 52° … Newburgh 48° … Monroe 54°
Kingston 51° … Middletown 50° … Monticello 49°
As we head into the afternoon… expect more clouds mixed with sunshine, and afternoon highs in the mid 50s for most of us. That’s roughly 10 degrees above average, and will feel like an early sign of spring.
Tonight, we’ll see clouds thicken and spotty rain showers and drizzle are possible late, with temps holding in the low 40s. But early on Friday temps should spike into the upper 50s and low 60s, along with clouds, drizzle and a spot rain shower.
While we won’t have the nicest weather to close out the work week, it will at least be mild. Colder air returns for the weekend and into early next week… as winter tries to hold on to the Hudson Valley. No real snow threats on the horizon either… but we will continue to monitor the situation for any changes.
Have a great Thursday afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion: Sun Fades Late

We’ll start our Wednesday off chilly with temps in the 20s, but with lots of sunshine across the Hudson Valley.  But as the day progresses, we’ll see more and more high clouds increasing around the region.  A SW wind will help pull temperatures up toward the 50° mark by mid afternoon… right about where we should be for this time of the year.  Skies look mainly cloudy skies by sunset.  We could see a few sprinkles around sunset in a few spots… but generally cloudy skies should carry us through the night.
Things warm up even more for Thursday and Friday, as we get a slight taste of early spring weather.  Complete details on the forecast are on the mobile app or website.  Hope everyone has a great day!

Tuesday Discussion : Quiet Mid March Pattern

March may have come in loud and obnoxious, with bouts wintry weather.  The snow didn’t add up to a whole lot, but 2 inches here, a dusting there, 4 inches after that… and we had quite the snowy start to the month.  After an arctic blast followed the snow… things have quieted down quite a bit… putting the March lion down for a nap.

The pattern has calmed, and temperatures are back near normal for mid March.  We don’t have any significant accumulating snow on the horizon at this point, as the clock on winter quickly winds down.  For the 2nd half of the work week, we’ll see a SW wind gradually raise temperatures up into the upper 40s… and eventually 50s by Thursday and into Friday.  That will be accompanied by the chance of rain showers… but nothing overly heavy.

Cold air should return for the weekend, because the jet stream will dip south again in the northeast.  That should give us below average temps for at least part of next week.  The big question, is will a chance of snow come with that cold air?  There are hints of slight chances… but nothing that looks even remotely likely at this point.  We’ll see what develops… if anything.  And we’ll share the info with you as we go.  Have a great afternoon!

Monday Discussion : Spring in Our Sights & Snow Recap

Our weak snow to sleet and rain event from Sunday, served as a late season reminder that winter still has it’s grip on the northeast and Hudson Valley.  We projected a widespread coating to 2 inches in the valley, with perhaps up to 2 to 5 inches in the Catskills.  What actually happened, was pretty close to that…

We didn’t put out a snowmap, because of the weakness and insignificance of the overall storm.  But pretty much everyone from I-84 on south saw less than an inch, before melting began.  The eastern Catskills did the best, with widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts… and some 4″ amounts in the highest elevations.

But now, as we move into the work week… the sun has returned, and temperatures are climbing well into the 40s.  This should melt the remaining snowpack in most areas.  We’ll see a sharp NW wind usher in colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday… before a SURGE of warmth floods northward by the week’s end.  Highs in the 50s and near 60° are likely by the end of the week.  A sign that spring is beginning to strengthen it’s grip.

We will likely see 1 more blast of winter weather between March 17th and March 25th… where we could see a threat of one final winter storm.  Once we get through that… it appears that springtime weather will begin to settle in, and winter… may finally be beaten.

More updates through the week, but for now… this week’s weather looks quiet and chilly, through mid week.  Have a great start to the week!

Sunday Discussion: AM Wintry Mix

The bulk of the snow and sleet has pushed northeast of the Hudson Valley at this hour.  We continue to see a weak band of wet snow, sleet and freezing drizzle rotate into the region at this hour, but this looks light in nature.  Areas from I-84 on south appear likely to be plain rain at this point, based on temperature reports from that area.

It appears a general coating to 2 inches of snow fell around the region, but we’ll wait to hear from you for confirmation.  The rest of the morning looks to see temperatures gradually moderate, and rise above freezing.  The back edge of the precipitation is moving thru now, but scattered areas of drizzle are possible into the afternoon hours.  That’s good news or at least ‘decent’ news for our local parades and events… like the Kingston parade.  Anyone in that area, it should be mainly dry and at least above freezing, just a few areas of drizzle and a spot shower.  So everyone should be able to throw on a coat, and be able to participate in and support your local community events without weather ruining the day.

Road conditions should improve steadily as the temps continue to rise, by be alert to the potential of slick spots on the roads, especially as you head further north. 

Have a safe start to your Sunday!

Saturday Discussion : Mild before the Mix

Temperatures on Saturday may start out cold, but they should finish about as mild as we’ve seen so far this month.  Highs on Saturday will climb into the low and mid 40s around the region, under a good amount of sunshine.  It should shape up to be quite the nice late winter day!

But of course, everyone continues to be focused on Sunday morning.  It does look to be a headache for many parts of the region, as the timing and temperatures are quite inconvenient for anyone who may be headed out early on Sunday.  It looks like the snow changes to sleet rather quick, but the sleet may be a bit more stubborn to change to rain.  This could cause some icy travel in spots Sunday morning, until the temperatures rise above freezing for the afternoon hours.  Timing the temperatures will be the critical issue… because once temps get to 32° with the March sun angle, the snow and sleet should melt on the paved surfaces pretty quick.

We’ll try to take an updated look at this later on Saturday, to see if we have more ‘fine tuned’ information.  But here are our latest thoughts as of early Saturday morning.

… Snow begins between 3am and 6am Sunday morning

… Snow changes to sleet between 5am and 8am
… Wintry mix changes to rain between 7am and 12pm

Impacts & Accumulation
… A coating to 2″ in the valley… up to 3″ possible in Catskills
… temps near 32° by sunrise, how fast they rise is critical to AM travel
… sleet may persist with temps slightly above freezing, delaying improved travel

… icy spots likely near sunrise, gradual improving by mid AM hours
… Traditionally colder valleys may see extended period of Ice (ex. Sullivan, West Ulster)

Friday Discussion : Finally Above Freezing!

Another bitingly cold start around the region, with temperatures in the low to mid teens to start the day.  But rest easy friends… we will SMASH the 32° mark today, and make it all the way to… the mid and upper 30s.  We know, not exactly overwhelming… but it’s an improvement.  Temps on Friday will still be a good 10° below average, but each day is a bit better than the previous day… with Saturday’s highs expected to climb into the low and mid 40s in the valley.  Now, both days will be about 5 to 10 degrees colder in the Catskills, but anyone who lives in the Catskills is more than familiar with that fact by now.  So keep your heads up, conditions are improving as we head into the weekend.

Eyes on Sunday Morning…

The Sunday morning wintry event has garnered much attention in the past few days.  In reality, it appears likely to be a rather underwhelming event, like many others in recent memory.

First Thoughts…
– Timing & Impacts –
… Snow begins between 3am and 7am Sunday morning
… Snow changes to sleet then rain between 6am and 10am
… A coating to 2″ in the valley… up to 3″ possible in Catskills
… temps near 32° by sunrise, rising above freezing rather quickly
… some icy spots possible near sunrise, improving by mid AM hours
… Traditionally colder valleys may see extended period of Ice (ex. Sullivan, West Ulster)

Thursday Discussion : Mid Winter’s Chill

It continues to feel like the core of winter outside, all across the Hudson Valley. Morning low temperatures were bitter cold around the region. Poughkeepsie got down to around 12° for a morning low… but that was likely because of a SW wind off the Hudson River, keeping them warmer than the surrounding area. Newburgh dropped down to 9°, and Montgomery was one of the colder spots, coming in at a bone chilling 2° for a morning low. But the coldest report came to us from Monticello, where the mercury hit a mind numbing -4°!
Now, the temps are climbing across the Hudson Valley as of mid day. Most of the region is in the mid to upper 20s at this point… with many topping out around 30° for an afternoon high. Average highs this time of year are in the mid 40s… so that’s roughly 15° below normal for the 1st week of March.
Next Storm on the Horizon
We’re watching a weak disturbance roll through to our south on Friday. A snow shower or flurry can’t be ruled out for Friday afternoon… but the bulk of the moisture with that system will stay south of us. Then our eyes turn to Saturday night and Sunday. A strong storm will push into the midwest, and a warm front will approach our area Saturday night. That should spread a band of light snow into the Hudson Valley and Catskills before sunrise on Sunday. With March air being milder on average… it won’t take much for the wet snow to change over to rain across the region… so by mid to late morning on Sunday, we should all be seeing cold rain showers, as temps approach 40°. A slushy inch or two of wet snow is possible before the changeover… but current guidance suggests there is not much moisture associated with this system.
Winter’s Last Stand?
We’ll continue to watch this system over the next couple days, but signs of spring are starting to pop up all over the weather map. Spring has winter on the ropes… but we can’t write off Old Man Winter just yet. It looks like he might have a little more fight in him. Guidance suggesting that winter may look to make its last stand between March 17th and March 27th. In that period, we could see 1 or 2 chances for wet snow. But by that time… the March sun is very warm, and things will need to set up perfectly for snow to accumulate.
We’ll keep you posted on what we see. Thank you for all the support you guys have shown to HVW! A special thanks to all our supporters, for really believing in the mission of HVW, and finding value in our work. You ALL keep us motivated, and make operating HVW so much fun!