A large storm system over the southeast US has spread some light rain showers into the Hudson Valley over the last 24 hours. But a strong high pressure over New England is battling back, and pushing the moisture back south of the region. However, this resistance will be only temporary, as the moisture will begin advancing northward once again… late on Saturday night. When the moisture returns, it appears it may do so in the form of ice for parts of the area.
– 4am to 9am Sunday: light freezing rain and rain develops (mixed with sleet)
– Hudson Valley likely warms above freezing (33° to 37°) and wintry mix changes to cold rain for most
– Icy conditions possible Sunday morning, untreated surfaces could be icy and slick
– Icy conditions could persist into afternoon for northern areas and sheltered valleys.
You can see the large area of moisture to our southwest, that will begin pushing northward once again Saturday night. At the same time, the flow around the high pressure in New England is pulling low level cold air down into the Hudson Valley. So as the moisture and cold air collide over the Hudson Valley, we could see areas of freezing rain and sleet develop… in addition to the cold rain showers. This could cause some icy spots by early morning on Sunday… especially as you go further north in the Hudson Valley and Catskills.
Futurecast Radar: 12am Sunday to 12am Monday
It appears that the icy conditions will be most widespread between 5am and 12pm on Sunday morning. The region will see temperatures around 30° to 34° as the sun rises on Sunday. With light rain showers falling into the cold air… the rain will likely freeze on untreated surfaces for a time. But the valley should warm above freezing between 7am and 10am… and a plain, cold rain is likely for most of the valley. The traditionally colder spots in the valleys of the Catskills and the upper Hudson Valley, could see the freezing rain and sleet linger, and persist into the afternoon. The rain is likely to be light in general… lasting through the daylight hours on Sunday.
Possibly ending as Snow?…
As the system begins to push offshore and deepen… it could pull some colder air back into the Hudson Valley. The result could be the rain/mix tapering off and ending as a period of wet snow Sunday night. It does not look like a significant event, but it could provide some slushy coatings to half inch amounts… especially in the Catskills and northern HV.
The timing of the cold air rushing in behind the system, and the exit of the moisture… will be key. It’s very possible that by the time the air is cold enough to support snow, that the moisture has exited the region… leaving us with no snow at all. We’ll have to monitor the timing… and if it will have any impact on the Monday AM commute.
We’ll try to have updates as we go… especially on the Facebook page. Thank you for your continued support. You guys are AWESOME!