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Thursday Discussion : Adding Insults to Injuries

The winter of 17-18 just does not want to end.  It’s had plenty of opportunities, but 2/3 of the way through the month of April, and we are yet again talking about the threat of wet snow in the Hudson Valley.

Notice that we have cold air pushing southward, into the Hudson Valley.  We also have a frontal disturbance pushing into our region, and with it will be an area of moisture.  It looks as if areas north of I-84 will be cold enough to support wet snow to fall, and even for wet snow to mix in for areas near I-84 and on south.

Temperatures will range 32° to 37° across the area, so while it is likely that we see wet snow fall in many places… it will struggle to accumulate or stick.  The wet snow may accumulate on grassy or unpaved surfaces, where it’s a degree or two colder… but the best chances for that appear to be well north of I-84 and higher up in elevation.  Here’s the simulated radar for the day…

FUTURECAST RADAR: 2AM – 4PM

You see that the bulk of the wet snow and rain showers fall during the early morning on Thursday… before tapering off and becoming spotty light rain & snow showers.  But we’re watching the potential for a 2nd area of moisture to intensify and spread more rain and wet snow into the Hudson Valley by mid day.

Once again… no matter what, this is mainly a nuisance event for the Hudson Valley.

So while not a problem for travel… or school delays and closings, it is a reminder of the fact that winter has not left our area yet.  That we continue to be stuck with well below average temperatures, and threats of frozen precipitation… even in some instances…. accumulating slushy wet snow on unpaved surfaces… in late April.

Take it slow on Thursday, and allow extra travel time on the wet roads… and potentially reduced visibilities from falling wet snow.  Be safe… and hopefully, with a little luck… these will be the final wet snow flakes across the Hudson Valley.

Tuesday Mid Day Discussion : April or February?

Another decent mid February day across the Hudson…
… huh? … what’s that? … April?… Oh…

Another cold and damp mid April day across the Hudson Valley, as we have another frontal boundary rotating through the region.

That’s touching off some scattered rain and wet snow showers. Most of the shower activity in the valley is very spotty and light… but we have more widespread, heavier showers heading our way this afternoon.

Temperatures are raw for mid April to be sure. Temps region wide are in the low to mid 40s… with mid to upper 30s in the higher elevations. That’s almost 20 degrees below average for this time of year… so be sure to have your coat handy. But in all honesty, you haven’t had a chance to put the coat away yet, so we’re sure you have that coat within reach.

For this afternoon, rain and wet snow showers will increase from west to east… becoming more widespread between 4pm and 8pm. So roads could be wet for the evening commute.

Monday Discussion : Heavy Rains and Howling Winds

What a difference a day makes.  On Friday, our highs in the region surged into the mid 70s.  Then on Saturday, the winds shifted out of the NE, and highs struggled to push into the upper 50s and low 60s, depending on where you live.  While cooler… it was still quite a nice spring day.  Then Sunday rolled in, and we were sent spiraling back into the middle of winter… with temperatures area wide pinned in the upper 30s and low 40s all day… roughly 20 to 25 degrees below average!

Just look at this map… INCREDIBLE cold air centered right over the Hudson Valley, making it feel more typical of mid February, rather than mid April.

Temperatures will begin to moderate before dawn on Monday, as the flow shifts out of the SW… out ahead of our cold front.  That cold front will bring some heavy rain and very gusty winds along with it…

Showers will increase through the night Sunday night, and by Monday morning we’ll have areas of soaking rain and embedded heavy downpours.  This will make for a very soggy Monday AM commute.  In addition to the soaking, to at times heavy rain… we’ll see very strong wind gusts associated with the front…

Wind gusts over 35 to 40mph are possible across the Hudson Valley… and as you go up in elevation, especially into the Catskills, you’ll see wind gusts possibly over 50mph!  You’ll definitely need to hold on tight to the wheel while driving on Monday, as the wind really gets strong during the morning.  We may even have a few issues with scattered power outages… especially in the higher elevations.

To add to the list of things to worry about… we have Flash Flood Watches popping up for parts of the Hudson Valley.  That’s due to the intensity of the heavy rain we might see.  We mentioned the chances of seeing heavy downpours embedded within the rain on Monday morning.  Some of those downpours could become excessive, and lead to areas of flash flooding.  Here are the projected rainfall totals by the time all is said and done…

So with 1 to 3 inches of rain falling in just a few hours on Monday, beware of localized flooding concerns.

A lot on our plate for Monday, check for updates as the morning progresses, and be sure to use a little extra caution.  We’ll have very strong wind gusts… and potentially heavy downpours to contend with.  Have a good start to your week!

Sunday Discussion : A Return to Mid Winter

Friday was a gorgeous late spring preview.  Then, Saturday was cooler, but was still a fine spring day.  But we’ve had a strong NE wind for about 24 hours… and it has done its dirty work.  Sunday will feel like we’ve been transported back into mid winter, with low clouds and drizzle… accompanied by temperatures in the mid 30s.  Parts of the Hudson Valley (especially the Catskills) will see sleet pellets mixing in at times, and even some spotty freezing drizzle.

This is the futurecast radar and satellite image for the region as of 2pm on Sunday.  This radar does not differentiate snow/sleet or rain, but it does a really good job of depicting the low clouds, patchy areas of fog, and drizzle that will be locked into the Hudson Valley for most of the day.  You’ll notice on the Hudson Valley Close Up on the bottom right portion of the image, that the Catskills might see some peeks of sun… that’s because the cold air, and low clouds will sink into the Hudson Valley.  The spotty blue and green areas on the map are indicative of the moisture and low clouds that we will likely be saddled with all day, likely in the form of drizzle… even a spot shower.

But what makes this even worse, are the stiff NE winds and the very cold temperatures.  So while we’ve got low clouds and drizzle all day across the Hudson Valley, we’ll have persistent winds out of the northeast, and temperatures in the 30s… which is cold enough to possibly support some spotty frozen precipitation in the Hudson Valley…

This map is also for 2pm on Sunday, and you can see that we expect persistent NE winds… and if this model is right, possibly some sleet pellets and freezing drizzle mixing in with the drizzle across the Hudson Valley.  Now the precipitation will be VERY light… with much of the day just being cloudy and cold… but periods of light drizzle are expected, and that drizzle could be accompanied by sleet pellets at times.

How is that possible?  Well… here are you anticipated mid day temperatures:

Once again, these temps are for early afternoon… and most of us will be in the mid 30s!?  That’s typical of mid JANUARY… not April 15th.  So with temperatures this cold… the air could support a few sleet pellets mixing in.  As you go further north in the Hudson Valley, into the sheltered… coldest valleys… temps could even be below freezing (30° or 31°)… and freezing drizzle is possible.  Roads are likely to be fine in most cases in those areas… but a light glaze could form on trees and unpaved surfaces.  So be aware that icy spots are possible… yes… ice, in mid April.

We just can’t seem to break free of winter… and Sunday will be yet another reminder of that.  We’ll have updates on social media as the day progresses.  Please stay warm, think warm thoughts…and try and have a good Sunday.

Saturday Discussion : Warmth Erodes Away

Friday was absolutely gorgeous across the Hudson Valley, with widespread highs in the 70s.  After the weeks of below average temperatures, Friday felt almost like a summer preview.  Regardless, for most people it was a very welcome change.

Now we have to deal with another type of change on Saturday.  Earlier in the week, Saturday looked like a great day, with sunshine and temperatures climbing well into the 70s.  However as we gathered more data through the week, it became clear that a frontal boundary would sink south, through the Hudson Valley early on Saturday.  That would cause the winds to shift around to the NE, and instead of a warm flow into the Hudson Valley… cold air will spend the day fighting its way into the region.

So lets look at the weather map first…

This is weather map for Saturday evening, and we’re starting with this, because this is the first time we’re seeing areas of drizzle appear on the map across the Hudson Valley.  Saturday will start with a good deal of sunshine, and more and more clouds will sink southward, into the Hudson Valley, during the day.  By sunset it should be mostly cloudy, with a few patchy areas of drizzle or spot showers to contend with.  If you have plans for Saturday… it will be dry, so you don’t have to worry about getting rained out.

Watch Out for Falling Temperatures

The story for Saturday… and really the weekend… is the falling temperatures.  After beautiful weather on Friday and temps in the 70s… we’ll have a strong NE wind on Saturday.  That will push cold air southwest, into the Hudson Valley all day.  You’ll notice the NE flow, just by looking at the temperature maps…

You can see the affects of the NE wind pushing colder temps down the valley.  Notice the warm temperatures in NJ and PA, into the low 80s!  But the cold filtering into the Hudson Valley will mean temps struggling into the 60s for the southern HV, and as you go northward, temps will struggle just to get into the 50s.  Basically the further north you go on Saturday… the colder the air will be.

The above temperatures are roughly as warm as it will get on Saturday.  As the afternoon progresses, temperatures will fall slowly… as the colder air sinks south.  But by around sunset… look just how chilly it will be in the region…The cold air means business, and by 8pm, any signs of warmth are all but erased from the weather map.  Some 70s are hanging on in eastern PA… but otherwise, 40s and even some upper 30s will be the story locally.  You’ll notice that the cold really begins to sink southward… by the lighter blues in the central and northern HV.  You can see where the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley are, based on the shading of the temperature map.  Because the cold air will be heavier, and sink to the valley floor.  So the last places to get cold… will actually be the higher elevations.

So the cold sinks in, and then is here to stay through Sunday.  Temps on Sunday won’t get out of the 30s in many areas, and where it does… low 40s are the best you have to look forward to.  A very raw day setting up for Sunday.

But beyond just ‘raw’… we actually have Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the higher elevations of the region.  Once the cold really settles in, the higher elevations could fall below freezing… and we could see the light showers and patchy drizzle… become freezing drizzle and light sleet.  Icy conditions could become a concern for the high elevations and the northern areas… and possibly even for the lower elevations on Sunday… check out this simulation…

SIMULATED RADAR: 2pm Saturday – 8am Monday

First off, the Hudson Valley won’t see a lot of precipitation until late Sunday night, early Monday morning.  But areas of drizzle, patchy fog, and spotty rain showers will be possible pretty much from sunset on Saturday through sunrise on Monday.  As the colder air filters into the region… the coldest areas (higher elevations) could see air temperatures fall below freezing… causing for some icy spots on sidewalks and untreated roads.  This would be confined to the Catskills and higher elevations of the northern Hudson Valley.

As the cold layer of air becomes thicker on Sunday… we could actually see areas of light sleet develop.  The cold layer of air could become thick enough for the rain drops to freeze into ice pellets, and we’ll have to watch for that on Sunday.  Again… the precipitation is very light, so we don’t anticipate widespread problems at this time… but it’s mid April for crying out loud… so it’s an issue we’ll need to watch.

So in closing… an ugly turn of events for our weather, Hudson Valley.  As we wave goodbye to the warmth, and watch the cold air blast into the Hudson Valley once again.  Saturday won’t be gorgeous… but temperatures will at least be near average, so the day should be a nice one overall… just not as nice as Friday.

We’ll have updates as we go through the weekend.  Have a great Saturday!

Thursday Discussion : Unsettled but Turning Milder

Thursday is our transition day, as we go from cool and chilly weather, to some much warmer… almost late spring-like weather.  We’ll see clouds and a few spotty sprinkles scattered around the region for the morning on Thursday… but most of the area will remain dry through the morning hours.  As we approach mid day, we’ll see a warm front approach from the SW, and that will spread some more widespread scattered showers into the area…

The showers won’t be overly heavy, or very widespread… but the further north you go in the Hudson Valley, the more numerous and heavier the scattered rain showers will be through the afternoon.  Make sure you have the rain gear handy if you have plans… because a few light rain showers will likely impact your afternoon.

From there, the winds begin to shift out of the south.  Thursday night and Friday morning may be mostly cloudy and even see some patchy drizzle or a spot rain shower.  But by mid morning on Friday, the southerly winds should really increase… and the warmth will flood into the Hudson Valley.  Friday afternoon should see a warm wind, and a good deal of sunshine… and just look at these highs…

We’ve waited a LONG time for this… but finally… it’s coming.  Spring… maybe even early summer… arrives on Friday!

Wednesday Discussion: Winter Chill is Stubborn to Exit

A bitter cold start to our mid April morning. Since the last time we saw a stretch of well above average temperatures was mid February… it may be hard to appreciate how cold it is. Morning low temperatures across the region were in the low to mid 20s… with Poughkeepsie bottoming our at 22 degrees. That’s a good 10 to 15 degrees below average… and more typical of late February or early March.

So the cold has been persistent and locked in for quite a while. But things are going to change over the next few days, as some warmer weather is on the way… and we should be in the 70s by the weekend.

For today, we’ll have sunshine and blue skies to start the day… and the chill should begin to ease as the morning progresses. Clouds will begin to mix in more and more as the day progresses. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. We will dodge some scattered rain showers tonight… even a few sleet or wet snow showers are possible in the extreme northern parts of the Hudson Valley, but temps remain above freezing overnight. Then we’ll have some more showers to contend with to start our day on Thursday… which should set the stage for warmer conditions as we head toward the weekend.

Some signs of spring are on the way, as we try to FINALLY shake off old man winter. Have a great day!

Monday Outlook : Winter’s Final Snow Flakes?

After a weekend that felt more like late February instead of early April… Monday will see a continuation of the cold.  Temperatures will start off very cold, in the low to mid 20s across the valley… before things moderate into the low and mid 40s during the afternoon.

Then we’ll have clouds advance into the Hudson Valley late on Monday into Monday night.  This should set the stage for what appears likely to be our final chance of snow for this winter season.

A weak disturbance will roll through the eastern US along a frontal boundary very late Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will be near or just below freezing… and some very light precipitation is likely to fall.  This should spread some light snow showers across the region by the morning.

Timing:
4am to 8am … scattered light snow showers develop
7am to 12pm … scattered light snow showers taper off

Accumulations:
Entire Hudson Valley: Slushy coating to 2 inches possible… best chance in higher elevations

This is a very minor event, and may not even affect some parts of the area.  But it’s April, and the timing on this could cause some slick conditions for the Tuesday AM commute.  So it’s definitely worth being aware of.  With the snow starting before sunrise, and temps near or below freezing, it could surely stick to the pavement in spots.  So icy and snow covered roads are possible for the Tuesday AM commute.  But the instant the sun rises, the snow should begin melting, thanks to that warm April sun.

Final Flakes

But this could be it… this could be the final flakes of the winter.  Behind this system, the winds shift and our flow becomes more southerly by late week.  And it looks like the pattern will become a bit more transient, allowing for some warmer air to move in at times.  And by late week… it’s possible that we could see temps surge well into the 70s…

The details will need to be ironed out as we go through the week, to determine if we see the 70s as early as Friday… but definitely by Saturday, it looks like we will see 70s in the Hudson Valley… and signs of… (wait for it)…. SPRING.

We’ll see how the week progresses.  Have a good Monday.

Storm Recap : April Snow Fools Nobody

It’s several days after the fact, but we never got to recap our Monday snow event.  So with the weather quiet and cold for this Sunday, let’s instead take a look back at the snow from last week.

Winter continues to plow through the month of March, and straight into April.  When dealing with snow events on or around April 1st… it’s frustrating as a weather forecaster.  Everyone loves a good April Fool’s joke, so everyone wants to assume (or hope) that snow forecasts on April 1st are indeed… just a joke.

Fortunately, or unfortunately… depending on your love or hate for snow and winter… Snow was indeed in the forecast for the night of April 1st and into April 2nd.  It wasn’t a major event in terms of accumulations, but any time you’re dealing with snow in the month of April… it’s a pretty big deal.  So lets take a look at our snowfall forecast, against what actually occurred, and discuss…

A wave of low pressure pushed through the Ohio Valley and eastward to the coast.  As the system reached our area, it ran into cold air, and produced snow over the entire Hudson Valley… with the heaviest amounts focused in the lower half of the valley.

Reports came in of snow and slush covered roads all the way down into the valley areas, which is quite a feat in the month of April.  But when you get a burst of moderate to heavy snow falling in the early morning hours, the road surfaces can cool enough to get accumulation.  Schools across the Hudson Valley had to close yet again in many cases… which will inevitably cost our local kids and educators a nice day in May or June, to make up the lost day.

Many schools tried to hold on to 3 hour delays, because the snow was expected to end between 8 and 10am, and the road conditions would improve rapidly with temps surging into the 40s by noon.  But it’s a REALLY tough call to make, and it’s so easy to sit back and “Monday morning Quarterback” these situations.  When your back is against the wall, and you have to decide whether to send the buses out and begin the day, or close school…. and you look outside and the snow is still pouring down… it’s really hard to stick to your guns and start the school day.

In this particular case we had extremely high confidence in our forecast for the snow to taper in time for delayed schools to open safely.  But we can appreciate why the person making the decision, would err on the side of safety.  Forecasts have been proven wrong before, so even though the forecast says that the snow is going to taper off around 9am… when you see the snow actively falling, it’s tough to put the kids on the bus… banking on the forecast to be right.  Again… it’s always easy to look at the situation after the fact and criticize it.

But it did snow into April… and now the question, is “will it snow again?”.  The jury is out on that… but the possibility is surely there.  Time will tell… but the end of winter is now within view… and warmer weather is on the horizon.  But this was surely an impressive snow event for early April.

Saturday Discussion : Winter’s Frosty Grip

While many people would like to be getting ready for spring, and doing springtime activities, the weather unfortunately has different ideas…

High temperatures this time of year should be averaging in the upper 50s in the Poughkeepsie area.  But instead we are stuck with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s across the Hudson Valley.  Most of us will see temps top out in the low 40s, with temps struggling to reach the mid 30s in the Catskills.

The good news we suppose, is that the storm that we were watching for Saturday really never got its act together.  An area of disturbance will push off the east coast late on Saturday, and move harmlessly out to sea.  So at least we only have the cold to deal with, and not snow as well.

The cold will be with us through the weekend… and into this coming week.  But there is good news on the horizon.  If you can tough out the next 5 or 6 days… if you can suffer through the cold… we could be talking about highs in the 70s by this time next week.  Yes… temperatures in the 70s… here… in the Hudson Valley.  But not until next weekend.  But at the very least… it’s a sign that winter is on its last legs, and that spring will eventually arrive.

Hang in there, Hudson Valley… another ugly weekend in store.  Bundle up!

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