Detailed Forecast

Here we go again, Hudson Valley.  In the midst of an extremely mild pattern… we’re going to squeeze out a small snowstorm tonight.  An arctic cold front swept through the valley Friday, and temps are near or just below freezing for Saturday morning.  Providing just enough cold air, so that when a wave of low pressure rides along that arctic front tonight, it will be snow that falls across the region.

Timing
– 5pm to 8pm : Snow develops from SW to NE
– 9pm to 2am : Steadiest snow
– 3am to 6am : Snow tapers from west to east

Snowfall
– Northern Catskills & Northern HV (northern parts of zone 1, 2 & 3): 1 to 3 inches
– Vast Majority of Hudson Valley (zone 4, 5, 6, 7 and southern 1, 2, & 3): 3 to 6 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (zone 8 & 9): 4 to 8 inches

Discussion:

This storm will bring a sneaky snow event in the midst of a mild pattern.  Just how much snow we see, depends on a combination of factors.  Most important is the position of the storm system, and the track it will subsequently take.  But also a factor are how strong the system can get… and how much moisture we can squeeze out of it.

So let’s walk through the expected progression of this storm…

It appears that the storm will begin to enter the lower Hudson Valley between 5pm and 8pm from SW to NE.  Temperatures at the onset should be 30° to 33°, and after a day of sunshine and above freezing temperatures… the snow may struggle to accumulate on roads initially.  But the fact that the sun will be down, and that temps should be at or below freezing… should allow snow to begin accumulating on roads after not too long.  So as the evening progresses, and the snow continues to fall, snow and ice covered roadways are likely.

As the evening progresses, the snow should continue to build over the region…

Looking at this futurecast… this looks like a good ol’ fashioned snow storm for the Hudson Valley.  The low pressure should exit east of Maryland and Delaware, and continue to move northeast.  The snow is likely to be falling at a fairly good clip at this point, with the steadiest and heaviest snow expected between 9pm and 2am.  Travel at this time will become increasingly difficult… due to snow covered roads and reduced visibility from steadily falling snow.  If you have plans after dark tonight, you really want to factor this in.

By around 3am… we’ll be seeing the snow begin to exit the region from west to east…

As the storm moves very close to the benchmark (40°N, 70°W)… it should begin to pull the snow shield east of the Hudson Valley.  Bringing an end to the snow across the region, and by the time the sun rises on Sunday… we’ll likely have a mix of clouds and sunshine, with temps in the mid to upper 20s.

This storm will be close to the benchmark… which traditionally means the heaviest snows will be in the lower Hudson Valley and closer to NYC.  Usually the ‘best’ snowstorms for the Hudson Valley track just inside of the benchmark, a bit closer to the coast.  As a result… here are some bullet points:

– In general, 3 to 6 inches of snow is likely for our region.

– As you go further NW, snow amounts are likely to be slightly lower, so those in the northern HV and Catskills may see slightly lower amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

– However… higher elevations will amplify the snowfall amounts, do to the added lift and colder temps that the mountains provide.  So the lower half of the Catskills could still see the 3 to 6 amounts, due to the benefit of elevation.

– As you go SE, south of I-84, and into zones 8 & 9… a lot more 4, 5, 6 and 7 inch amounts are possible, hence the slightly higher snowfall forecast there.

– There are always heavier snow bands that set up within these systems… if one sets up over the Hudson Valley, it could mean slightly higher totals.  The data is conflicted on this, so we’re siding with the consensus… which is 3 to 6 inches.

As always, this will turn into a now-casting event.  Meaning as the storm develops, and begins to unfold… we’ll have updated analysis and discussion.  We’ll look to all of our viewers on Facebook to provide observations and condition updates.  If we’re seeing signs that this storm could overachieve a bit… we will let you know.  In addition, if we see signs that the snow shield doesn’t quite come together as we expect… we’ll discuss that as well.

But as of now… the data is looking good… we’re not seeing any “scary” signals that could wreck the forecast.  Check with us on Facebook for updates, and if anything changes… we’ll let you know.

Thanks for your reading… and all your continued support!

A weak storm system threatens to bring snow to the Hudson Valley Saturday night. The exact track of the storm will determine just how much snow we see.

Timing:
– 5pm to 8pm Snow develops from SW to NE
– 9pm to 2am Steadiest snow expected
– 2am to 6am Snow tapers from west to east

What’s up Hudson Valley…
Contrary to popular belief… we haven’t forgotten about you

Since our live stream about 12 hours ago… we’ve seen dramatic changes in the data. Most of the guidance suggests that the arctic frontal boundary pushes slightly further south. The result is that the developing storm moves 50 to 100 miles further south. This results in a very different snowfall forecast for our area.

If everything plays out the way we’re thinking… we’re about to have a pretty wild week of weather.  It starts on Thursday… when we’ll see a few spotty rain showers around sunrise… but clouds should mix with breaks of afternoon sunshine.  A warm SW wind will usher in some very warm air to the Hudson Valley.  The result should be some incredible February warmth…

Your eyes do not deceive you.  Those are temperatures in the low 60s across the lower Hudson Valley… and even some upper 50s in the northern Hudson Valley!  The Catskills should push near 50°!  The record high in Poughkeepsie is 66, set back in 1954… so that number looks safe.  But what a beautiful afternoon we should have on our hands!

Then we have some more showers to contend with Thursday night into Friday, as an arctic cold front pushes through the region.  That front will cause temperatures to plunge during the day on Friday… we’ll start out in the 50s, and finish the day in the low to mid 40s… and our low Friday night should be around 20°.

Then things get interesting… REALLY interesting…

A storm will develop along the arctic front that pushes through, and that storm will ride along the frontal boundary.  The idea is, that the boundary sets up just to our south, and that when the moisture moves northward into the colder air that will be over the Hudson Valley… it will fall in the form of snow.

So yes… we are looking at the likelihood of a snow storm Saturday night, starting right around sunset… and then tapering off before sunrise on Sunday morning.  We still have a lot of details to iron out… (the storm is just over 3 days away)… but there is the very real possibility that the storm could drop 3 to 6 inches of snow across portions of the Hudson Valley.  All of the computer guidance sees this as a legitimate possibility… and the pattern favors this storm to develop and push snow into the Hudson Valley.  But we’ll watch it for sure, and let you know if the event looks more, or less likely as we get closer.  For now, lets say that the odds of this event happening as shown above are about 65% to 70%.

But to make things even more interesting… behind this storm… temperatures will moderate once again.  So rather than an arctic blast, we’ll quickly begin melting the snow on Sunday and Monday.  Then by Tuesday… after yet another warm front moves through… look at the projected high temperatures for Tuesday (about 6 days from now)

So that’s 60° today… a snow storm in 3 days… and near record warmth 3 days after that.  Welcome to the Hudson Valley in an early spring pattern.

Again… we’re watching all of these events, and will have updates for you as we get closer.  But a rollercoaster of weather is likely heading our way.  Have a great Thursday!

* Icy Wednesday AM Commute Possible *

Overnight, we saw a small batch of light snow, sleet and freezing drizzle move right over the Hudson Valley. This radar image shows what is left at this hour, but the wintry mix moved through between 3am and 6am for the most part, and impacted the southern 1/2 of the Hudson Valley (from roughly Monticello and Poughkeepsie on south… or near I-84 and points south). Sullivan, Orange, Putnam counties even are under a winter weather advisory. This precipitation did not show up on any computer model guidance, and so this unexpected icy glaze will catch people off guard, and will leave road crews scrambling to play catch-up.

The wintry mix has put down a coating of snow in some spots, an icy glaze in others, and a combination of the two for many of us. We’re seeing school delays as a result as well, so please take this into consideration as you begin your morning commute. Icy conditions are surely possible, due to this unexpected icy precipitation moving through.

As we move through the morning… we should see breaks of sunshine by mid morning, and a SW wind today will pull temps up above freezing by mid morning as well. A milder day on tap today, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50. So once we deal with this icy start in spots, things should improve nicely.

So be sure to take stock of the conditions in your area this morning, be safe, and have a nice start to your day.

After a cold, soaking rain over the weekend.  Things will quiet down over the next few days.  Our flow for Monday and Tuesday will be out of the northwest.  The NW flow will bring seasonably cold temperatures to the Hudson Valley.  Expect a good deal of sunshine both Monday and Tuesday… but temperatures largely in the 30s.

Wednesday we’ll begin to see the SW wind take effect.  That will pull temperatures up into the mid and upper 40s.  Which sets the stage for our next chance of rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning…

A warm front will pull even milder air into the Hudson Valley, as winter begins to fade into the rear view mirror (at least temporarily).  After scattered showers start the day on Thursday, we’ll continue to see a SW flow behind the warm front.  The showers should taper off… possibly giving way to some breaks of sun later in the day on Thursday.  But check out the potential highs on Thursday afternoon…

You’re reading that right… possibly near 60 degrees!  We’ll have to watch and see if that holds true… but signs of spring are on the horizon.

Is Winter Washed Up?

We’ve had a lot of questions… have we seen the last of winter?  The short answer, is no… we haven’t.  The fact is, that it’s only Feb 12th, and we have roughly 45 more days where winter weather is reasonably possible.  That’s a lot of time for this pattern to change.  But for the next 10 days… through roughly the 25th… the pattern won’t favor winter weather.

We’ll be looking to do a more detailed discussion of the  upcoming pattern, in the next day or two.

Have a great afternoon!

It took us a couple days to compile the data… but we finally have the recap from our Wednesday Snow to sleet & freezing rain event.  We were hoping to get some more reports out of the southern Hudson Valley (we only have 3 reports from Orange County, and none from Putnam, Rockland or Westchester).  But that’s an indication of just how little snow fell in those areas, that most of the spotters didn’t even report to the NWS.  Either way… let’s take a look:

As we like to do with our recaps… we post our final snowfall forecast map; followed by the National Weather Service’s Snow History map, and snow totals.  This way we can analyze our forecast against what happened, and discuss the results.

The 1st thing that jumps out at us, is that we got the snowfall setup correct.  6 to 12 inches in the Catskills, followed by 3 to 6 inches in the valley, and steadily decreasing amounts as you pushed south and east.  Where our snowfall forecast struggled… was that each range was probably a bit too aggressive in each range.  The 1 to 3 inch area probably should have been a coating to 2 inches; the 2 to 4 inch range could have been 1 to 3; and southern part of the 3 to 6 inch range could have been 2 to 4 inches.

But we’re nitpicking perfectionists… and the end results were right around the low end of each range from about Poughkeepsie on south.  That’s largely due to the fact that there was a dry slot of moisture that moved right through the Mid Hudson Valley, check this out…

If we melted all the snow down from Wednesday, and added it with the rain & freezing rain that fell, here’s a map of what the result would be.  This map shows the liquid precipitation from Wednesday.  If you look at the Hudson Valley, you’ll quickly notice the gap in the precipitation.  The Catskills saw upwards of 1 inch of liquid moisture… and if you move into the lower Hudson Valley, you see that Westchester County saw over 1 inch of precipitation as well.  Much of the I-84 corridor, saw less than a half inch of precipitation.

This is a big deal when analyzing our snowfall forecast, because none of the data suggested that we would be in a dry slot with this storm.  We expected to see the same amount of precipitation as areas to our north and to our south.  And while we were now-casting this storm… we saw areas of heavy snow off to our north, in the Catskills, but barely anything falling across the central Hudson Valley.  To make matters worse, the dry slot of precipitation moved through right during the time we were expecting our heaviest snow to fall.

Here’s the radar image from 12:30pm… during the height of the storm.  You’ll see that instead of snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour like we were expecting... we had light snow and sleet falling across the mid Hudson Valley.  You’ll see the dark blues (heavy snow) are in the Catskills, while light snow (light blue) fell across the Mid Hudson Valley.  In fact, there are even holes in the snow shield… where northing was falling at all.

When you get an unexpected dry slot in the middle of a storm… especially right at the time you’re expecting your heaviest snow… it’s going to cause your snow totals to be a little lower than expected.  And we noticed that across the region, with many locations struggling to get to the low end of the forecast range.

But even with this giant monkey wrench thrown into the mix, we still were satisfied with the forecast overall.  The start time, change to mix time frame, and end time… were all right where we thought they would be.  And while snow amounts may have been 1 to 2 inches lighter than expected thanks to the dry slot in the storm… we still were close enough to the range.  Snow lovers may have been disappointed (we know we were )… but at the end of the day, if you trusted our forecast… this storm didn’t surprise you or catch you off guard.

Now if we could just get Mother Nature to follow our instructions, and not give us dry air during the height of the storm… we’ll be all set.  Thank you for all of your support!  You guys are tremendous!  The real time reporting that was provided by you… helped us analyze the storm all the way through.  Your information is also very valuable to your Hudson Valley neighbors, as road conditions and travel updates help people make more informed decisions.  It’s awesome to be a part of such a community.  We can’t thank you enough!

Have a wonderful weekend!

A bitter cold start across the region this morning, with temperatures starting out in the single digits and low teens for most of us. Make sure to bundle up before you head out the door this morning.

Clouds will be on the increase today. As a warm front approaches later this morning, we will see some snow showers develop across the Hudson Valley. The snow showers will be rather light for the southern Hudson Valley, but the northern half of the valley could see a period of steady light snow, that could result in a dusting to an inch of snow… especially as you head into the Catskills, where 1 to 3 inches are possible.

We’ll have to watch how things develop this afternoon, as depending on the timing, these snow showers could lead to a few slick spots for the evening commute. Right now… start time looks to be 12pm to 2pm… and tapers off between 5pm and 7pm.

We’ll try to have additional discussion on this later today, but be sure to follow along on the Facebook page for updates once the snow showers begin.

With the newly designed HVW website, we have some newly found flexibility.  The weather on Thursday looks rather tranquil, cold and uneventful.  Temperatures will struggle into the upper 20s and near 30° for a high, which is certainly about 10 degrees below average.  But with mostly sunny skies, the weather looks like a calm winter day.  Well, since we have all of the forecast information presented in a crisp, ‘handsome’ if you will, format… rather than focus on Thursday’s weather in the daily discussion… we can look right ahead to Friday, and you still have everything you need to know for your Thursday.

So… looking to Friday, we’ll have a warm front approaching from the southwest.  It doesn’t have a lot of moisture to work with as it pushes into the Northeast, but it could still touch off some snow showers in our area…

You can see on the radar simulation, that the front tries to push some light snow showers into our area.  Nothing overly heavy, but we could see some areas get a dusting to an inch in spots.  The best chance for accumulating snow, will be the Catskills… where a couple of inches could accumulate.

Summary:

• Timing : Light snow showers could develop near or shortly after Friday AM commute
• Temps in the upper 20s
• Light dusting of snow possible, could be some slick spots for PM commute

We’ll have to monitor the progress of the front, because there is some guidance that suggests the bulk of the snow shower activity is just off to our north.  So the best chance for light snow showers is in the northern Hudson Valley… but it does look like most of the area could see some light snow shower activity.

Looking ahead to the weekend… expect a noticeable warmup.  We’ll have a SW flow, and a weak system will push into the area between Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  That will bring us scattered rain showers and temps in the 40s.  So expect a bit of a moderation and temporary break from the winter weather this weekend.

Have a great Thursday… and thank you for all the support you continue to give HVW!