Forecast Discussions

Sunday Discussion : Unofficial Start to Summer, Feels like Summer

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A beautiful Saturday across the Hudson Valley, with Poughkeepsie reaching 79°… about 5 degrees above average. After a beautiful start to our holiday weekend, we can expect more of the same for the remainder of the weekend.
Sunday should see mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (upper 70s in the Catskills).
Then on Monday, another day of partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 80s (upper 70s in the Catskills). An absolutely picture perfect weekend for the unofficial start to summer. With many folks having outdoor plans for this weekend, from camping, to family get togethers… the weather will cooperate fully.
 
Rainfall Concerns…
Of course we are also aware of the growing need for rainfall in the region. The last 2 weeks have been pretty dry, with much of the area seeing between half an inch and an inch. But over the last 30 days we’re pretty close to average across the entire region (between 80% and 100% of average). So, while none of the region is showing up on the drought monitor, some rainfall would always be welcome. However, we have no real rainfall in sight over the next 7 days. There are some signs we could see some unsettled weather as we head toward the end of the first week of June… but things look pretty dry until then.
 
So for now, lets all enjoy the beautiful weather heading our way for the Memorial Day weekend… and continuing into the final days of May. Have a great Sunday everyone!
 
-Bill

Monday Discussion : Fine Start to the Week

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Fine Start to the Week…
Partly to mostly sunny skies for Monday, with afternoon highs expected in the low to mid 70s… a fine late May day. Tuesday looks quite similar, maybe a few more clouds, as highs again in the low to mid 70s. That sets the stage for Wednesday, where we’ll watch a front dropping down from Canada. There won’t be a lot of moisture with it, so we expect a weakening band of rain showers developing late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Amounts look light, a trace to a quarter inch. So the next week appears rather dry. Something we’ll monitor heading into the week.
 
Looking back at the weekend….

Speaking of rainfall… Saturday was unsettled across the region, but our storm didn’t bring quite as much rainfall as we were expecting and hoping for. We expressed concern about the heaviest rain remaining to our east, and that is exactly how it played out. Rainfall amounts for the eastern half of the valley was around half an inch to an inch… but the western half of the valley saw less than a quarter inch… with the Catskills seeing barely any rainfall. So, it was a missed opportunity to get some welcome rainfall in some areas… while the eastern half of the region saw a decent bit of rain.
 
We’ll continue to monitor our prospects for rain, and the weather in general as we head into the week ahead. Have a great Monday!
-Bill

Saturday Discussion : Unsettled Weather Ahead

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– Scattered showers develop late morning / early afternoon
– Periods of rain possible during the mid afternoon hours
– Rain tapering to showers after dark
– 0.50″ to 1.0″ of rain likely (heavier totals further east)
A frontal system pushing east will interact with a developing area of low pressure and touch off showers and an area of moderate to heavy rain across the northeast. Much of the guidance keeps the heaviest rain just to our east… but parts of the Hudson Valley could get a soaking rain during the afternoon. Best chance for heavier rainfall totals will be east of the Hudson River and near the NY/CT border. The further west you go, the lower the rainfall amounts are expected to be.
Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s despite the rain. The storm clears out on Sunday with a mix of clouds and sunshine, and Highs on Sunday approaching 70°.
 
Despite the unsettled weather, we hope you have a great Saturday!
-Bill

Wednesday Evening Update : Freeze Warning in Effect

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…FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…
…FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY…
* WHAT…Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s and lower
30s.
* WHERE…The Entire Hudson Valley.
* WHEN…From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday.
* IMPACTS…Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.
— HVW COMMENTARY —
The National Weather Service has upgraded the entire region to Freeze Warnings, meaning there is the expectation for a hard frost and/or freeze. Bundle up, as a very cold night is in store for the Hudson Valley.

Weekend Outlook : Summer Start ; Spring Finish

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A large area of high pressure over the eastern US has the Hudson Valley heating up as we close out the work week. Highs around the region should reach the mid to upper 80s, roughly 15 degrees above average… feeling more like July than mid May. The same on Saturday as we watch a weak system pass by to our south. We should see partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, and we can’t rule out a stray sprinkle in spots. But we stay mostly dry, and rather warm (upper 70s to around 80°). Then a weak front slides through and we should see temps drop 10 to 15 degrees across the valley for Mother’s Day on Sunday. Giving us what should be a beautiful day for all the Mom’s out there!
No matter what you’re doing… we hope you have a wonderful weekend!

Wednesday Discussion : Beautiful Stretch of Weather…

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Orange is a beautiful color, especially when it comes to temperature maps! After a cold and raw week of weather to end April and start the month of May, we finally have some beautiful spring weather!
Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s… with Friday breaking into the low and mid 80s! Each day should see a good deal of sunshine, with some fair weather clouds.
The big question is: “does the beautiful weather last into the weekend?” … and the answer is “most likely, yes!” A weak system will approach Friday night, but there should be enough influence from high pressure to our north, to keep the rain showers to our south on Saturday. So while we may have more clouds than sunshine on Saturday… it should remain dry with highs in the upper 70s. Then another fine day of sunshine and clouds with highs in the low 70s on Sunday.
They say April showers bring May flowers… and it seems they were right! Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Nice Week Ahead

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A dry and beautiful week ahead, temps will average out near normal through the week, slight chance of some showers on Sunday. Otherwise a standard, spring week ahead. What’s everyone doing this week? These are the quite weeks for us at HVW, makes up for all the crazy ones where sleep in fleeting.

Thursday Discussion: Almost in the Clear…

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We’ve had a very unsettled week of weather around the Hudson Valley, and the northeast in general.
Over the course of the past week, we’ve seen 2 to 4 inches of rain around the region. A large, deep upper level low pressure had gripped the eastern US for a week, but it’s finally moving off shore and out to sea. So we’ve got 1 or 2 more days of influence from this departing system before things begin to improve.
THURSDAY… looks mostly cloudy and chilly, with more spotty pop up showers swinging through the region. Highs will be in the mid 50s, roughly 10 degrees below average for early May. Partly cloudy skies at night will allow temps to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s.
FRIDAY… clouds should mix with a bit more sunshine as the coastal low pressure moves further away. We can’t completely rule out a stray shower on Friday afternoon. Highs should reach the 60 degree mark, getting closer to average.
 
THE WEEKEND…
Alex alluded on Wednesday that our reward for making it through the past week of unsettled and chilly weather, could be a weekend with seasonal temperatures and breaks of sunshine… and that continues to look likely. Highs in the mid 60s, possibly approaching 70° on Sunday. And importantly, the entire weekend looks dry, as high pressure will try to move into the northeast. We’ll continue monitoring the details, but a fine spring weekend looks to be on the way.
 
Have a wonderful Thursday, Hudson Valley!
-Bill

There’s light at the end of this week!

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Upper level low continues to impact our weather through Friday, cool temps, occasional showers and clouds will be the theme.

With that said….. in a break from the trend of weekend washouts, our patients through this cool and damp pattern looks to pay off. High pressure regains control for the weekend, sunshine returns as does milder temps. Attached are the projected highs for Sat/Sun.

After this cool and damp pattern, I’d imagine there’s gonna be some lawn mowing going down this weekend. My yard is a few days away from looking like where they filmed the movie predator! Yesterday when the wife was leaving for work, I yelled out the window… GET TO DA CHOPPA!!

Anyways. Have a great day and watch out for those pop up showers and downpours.

-Alex

The Week Ahead – Unsettled Weather Continues

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– Soaking rain on Sunday night… 1 to 2 inches possible
– Rain ends for Mon AM commute, Clouds mix with sun
– Chilly & Breezy … AM temps in mid 40s, highs mid 50s
– Scattered PM showers on Monday, same Tue & Wed
A large upper level low pressure has settled into the eastern US, and we are experiencing the impacts in the form of multiple days of rain. Our first coastal storm passed through Friday night into Saturday, and now our next coastal storm is developing Sunday night. It will ride up the coast into Monday morning, spreading a soaking rain of 1 to 2 inches along the way.
Rain should taper off before sunrise Monday morning, and some sunshine could break through. Temps on Monday will be in the low to mid 50s, but the upper level low will spawn scattered showers during the afternoon, so afternoon plans may have to dodge a shower or two… but the rain showers should be brief and scattered.
But the upper level low pressure will be very slow to leave, and so we’ll have to contend with unsettled conditions for at least the first half of the week. Monday, Tuesday… and likely Wednesday as well. Each day we’ll have sun mixed with clouds and a chance of scattered pop up showers underneath the upper level low. Additional rainfall amounts between Mon, Tue, & Wed should be around a quarter of an inch to locally up to a half inch.
So even through we turn the calendar to May on Monday, it will feel more like late March across the region. Keep the early spring rain gear handy, and have a great start to the week!
 
-Bill