Wednesday Discussion : Warmth Returns for a Day

Tuesday was a complete and total washout, in which 1 to 3 inches of rain fell on average… with some areas seeing upwards of 4 inches in the Lower Hudson Valley.  Once the final data is out, we’ll try to share some graphics displaying just how much rain fell across the region.

As we look to Wednesday, we’ll see a strong SW flow, that will push temperatures well into the 70s, possibly even into the low 80s in a few spots… even despite the mainly cloudy skies.

But with the warmth, will come the threat for scattered late day showers and thunderstorms.

As a cold front approaches late on Wednesday, a line of showers and thunderstorms will develop… and push toward the Hudson Valley.  This line of showers and storms will weaken as it approaches our region, but it is projected to arrive between 6pm and 9pm.  So if you have plans in this time frame, you will want to take this into account.

Tuesday Discussion : The Super Soaker 2018

11am Radar Update

You’ll have to forgive the joke from our childhood… The Super Soaker 5000 was a really cool water gun once upon a time.  The rain continues to come down across the Hudson Valley. You can see that the rain extends well off to our SW, back into central PA. So the rain won’t be tapering off any time soon. Periods of rain will continue into the afternoon hours… so make sure you have the rain gear handy.

Monday Discussion : More Rain on the Way

With some fall air in place, we’ll start the work week off with a fairly nice day.  Sunshine will mix with clouds, as high pressure over the northeast holds off an approaching storm system for one more day.  Highs on Monday should climb into the upper 60s.

But clouds will increase and thicken toward sunset, and rain showers will increase and become steady overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Futurecast Radar: 8pm Mon – 8pm Tue

You can see a large batch of moisture associated with a warm front pushes into the Hudson Valley around midnight.  What starts as showers, becomes a soaking rain… into the early afternoon on Tuesday.  It appears it could end as some downpours with thunder, before tapering off before sunset on Tuesday.  Then we’ll watch as the cold front associated with this system will rotate through the northeast on Wednesday, possibly bringing another round of rain and thunder late on Wednesday.

By the time everything tapers of late on Wednesday, upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain appears possible…

Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain appear possible between Monday night and Wednesday night.  Adding to the copious amounts of rainfall the Hudson Valley has seen over the past few months.  We’ll have to keep tabs on the threat for flash flooding, but this surely has the signals of trouble… that could lead to some flash flooding reports.

We’ll continue to track this as we get closer… but enjoy a decent start to the week, because a good deal of rain is on the way for Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Sunday Discussion : First Full Day of Fall

The battle between clouds and sunshine continue for our first full day of autumn. The further north you go, the more sunshine you’ll encounter. That’s because there’s a band of showers running from west to east, just south of NYC. We don’t anticipate any rain into the Hudson Valley, but the clouds associated with the area of unsettled weather will push into the lower half of the HV.

For the afternoon, expect a mix of clouds and sunshine. More clouds as you go south, more sun as you go further north. Highs will climb into the mid and upper 60s across the region… which is a degree or two below average for this point in the season. Under partly to mostly clear skies tonight, low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s for much of the region, which is right on target for this time of year, believe it or not.

Monday will start out quiet enough, but we’re tracking a low pressure system moving our way for Monday night and Tuesday. That will likely touch off a good deal of rain across the Hudson Valley… where upwards of 1 inch are possible. We’ll continue to break apart the details as we get closer, and we’ll share them with you tonight.

For now… have a great Sunday, and enjoy our first day of fall!

Saturday Discussion : Fall Finally Arrives

It’s been a warm and stormy end to August and first half of September.  But all that changes for the weekend across the Hudson Valley.  Fall begins at 9:54pm on Saturday, and that’s fitting as we see a cold front pushing through the region by sunrise on Saturday… and that will shift winds around to the NW.  That northerly Canadian flow will mean cooler air than what we’ve seen recently.  Highs in the upper 60s are likely… under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

The weak NE flow will give us the coolest night in a while, with low temperatures dropping into the low 50s… and possibly even upper 40s in the northern hills.  Sunday should see another partly cloudy day, with winds shifting out of the south.  Temps on Sunday, once again in the mid to upper 60s.

We’re tracking a storm system approaching the region late on Monday… and that should bring more soaking rain to the region for Monday night into Tuesday.  But for now… enjoy what should be a beautiful start to fall!

Thursday Discussion : Persistent Clouds and Drizzle

Once again the Hudson Valley is wedged between high pressure to our northeast, and low pressure to our SE.  That’s going to keep our flow out of the east/southeast, and leave us with rather unsettled conditions.  Low clouds, fog and drizzle will be the story of our Thursday, as the systems off to our east keep our air mass relatively stagnant.  Temps on Thursday should climb into the low and mid 70s… but where the areas of drizzle persist, it will likely hold temps in the 60s.

Conditions are likely to persist into Friday as well… so don’t expect major improvements on Friday.  Hopefully by Saturday and Sunday we can get winds to shift around, and replace this unsettled air mass with some cooler and drier air.

Have a great Thursday!

Tropical Tuesday: Remnants of Florence

A tropical Tuesday across the Hudson Valley as the remnants of Florence continue to push through our area.  The rains have been stretched out along a frontal boundary, so you can see there is a long fetch of rain pushing well west into central PA.  This band of showers and downpours will gradually push east-southeast today, but it’s likely to generate an extended period of light, to at times heavy, rainfall today.  That could mean some locations see another half inch to an inch of rain… with some localized spots possibly seeing up to 2 more inches of rain.

High temps today will reach in the mid to upper 70s… with a very tropical, humid feel to the air.  Guidance suggests that the rain tapers from NW to SE during the afternoon hours, so conditions should improve and begin to dry out for the evening commute.  But you’re definitely going to want the rain gear for your Tuesday.  Stay dry, Hudson Valley! 

Sunday Discussion : Florence Devastates the Carolinas

This devastating storm is no longer about the winds, and all about the rain. As Florence pushes further inland, its structure continues to fall apart gradually. At this time, the heaviest rain bands are on the eastern half of the storm. Because of the counter clockwise rotation, the flow off the Atlantic Ocean contains an abundance of tropical moisture.

Just glancing at the latest radar loop, and seeing that the heaviest rain continues to fall over the same areas, is just disheartening. Sunday is likely to be a very ominous day, with more reports of record flooding.

Parts of North Carolina have seen upwards of 20 inches of rain. On the “Hurricane Florence Rainfall as of Saturday Night” map, you can see that by all of the areas in white. It’s amazing to see just how wide the area of 20″ rains are. Unfortunately, the rains are not yet done.

As you can see on the last map, that another 2 to 6 inches of rain are possible before the system exits the area. As it appears right now, the rains should begin to gradually diminish later on Sunday. However, scattered bands of residual rain appear possible into Monday.

We continue to hope that this system can exit the region as quickly as possible, and that flooding does not turn as catastrophic as we have feared. However indications thus far, are that the flooding has not yet peaked… and that the worst may be yet to come.

Florence Eyes the Northeast

As we look down the road, we’ll watch as Florence gets caught in a frontal boundary in the Ohio Valley.  That will turn Florence northward, and recurve it toward the Hudson Valley and Northeast.

The targeted time frame on Florence for our area… will likely be Monday night and early Tuesday.  Exactly how the system devolves will determine just how much rain falls in our area, or the areas surrounding us.  It currently does not look like a serious flash flood concern… but it does look capable of bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain to parts of the region.  So we’ll have our eyes firmly fixed on Florence in the coming days.

Friday Discussion : More Gray than Blue

Clouds will be the story once more today, as a weak east wind keeps our humid, unsettled air mass in place. Expect lots of clouds, a bit of humidity, and highs in the mid to upper 70s across the Hudson Valley.

Conditions should improve over the weekend, slowly… as the sun should slowly return over the next day or two. Then our eyes turn to the remnants of Hurricane Florence, which will get caught in a frontal trough and likely rotate northward toward the Hudson Valley by late Monday and into Tuesday. Early projections suggest some windy conditions (gusts over 20mph) and heavy rainfall (1 to 3 inches) are possible. We’ll be tracking that through the weekend.

Tuesday Afternoon Discussion : Mild and Muggy

The rain has exited the region, but the clouds have held firm. Temperatures have risen into the low and mid 70s for most of us, in the wake of the soaking rain of the past 36 hours… quite an increase from the 50s of yesterday.

Unfortunately, it looks as if we will be stuck in a rather unsettled pattern for the rest of the week. The large high pressure that will be blocking and steering Hurricane Florence, is also blocking our local weather pattern. Despite the rising pressures, we will see our flow off the Atlantic Ocean… providing lots of clouds, moisture and instability. That means lots of clouds, mild to warm temps, and lots of moisture through the week.

So expect a rather unsettled rest of the week across the Hudson Valley.

Rainfall Recap : Sunday 9/9/18 – Monday 9/10/18

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon delivered a soaking rainfall across the Hudson Valley over a 24 to 36 hour period.  Luckily, the rain was steady and not torrential.  This prevented any flash flood warnings being issued, however the grounds are surely saturated at this point.  We will have unsettled weather across the Hudson Valley for much of the work week, with additional rainfall likely.  This, combined with the uncertainty of Hurricane Florence’s… will mean we need to watch for future threats of rain in the next week or two, as they could possibly lead to flooding concerns for our area.