This winter has been a wild one, in terms of ups and downs… and unexpected weather events. So it makes perfect sense, that one day after the warmest February day on record… it’s going to sleet or snow.
– 7am to 12pm: Spotty light sleet pellets and light drizzle falls in some areas
– 12pm to 3pm: Steady Sleet and wet snow develops from west to east
– 4pm to 7pm: Sleet and wet snow taper off from west to east
Snow & Sleet Accumulation:
– Catskills (zone 1 & 2) : 2 to 5 inches of snow
– Southern Catskills, Upper HV (zones 5&6, upper 3&4) : 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet
– Middle and Lower Hudson Valley (zones 7&8, low 3&4) : Coating to 1 inch of sleet and wet snow
– Extreme Lower HV (zone 9) : some patchy icy spots due to sleet & rain
After the warmest February day in recorded history for the Hudson Valley, we’ll have a cold front slide through the region Wednesday night. It will shift our winds around out of the north, and gradually lead to falling temperatures overnight. Temperatures will stay above freezing all night, and when we wake up… temps will likely be in the mid to upper 30s…
It’s likely going to be dry at sunrise, but it won’t be too long before some of the moisture begins to reach the Hudson Valley…
You can see on the simulation, that the bulk of the moisture will be off to our west, in western PA. But some patchy areas of moisture could race out ahead of the main area of precipitation. That could spell patchy areas of light rain showers, mixing with light sleet showers… across the Hudson Valley during the morning on Thursday.
But as we just showed you, temperatures will be above freezing at this point. In addition, coming off a record warm day, the ground is going to be very warm, unable to support snow or ice accumulating to either grass or roadways. So anything that falls during the morning… whether it’s liquid rain or sleet pellets… will melt on contact with the ground. Still, plan for areas of wet roads for the end of the AM commute, and the later half of the morning.
As the morning continues, and the afternoon approaches… we’ll see the temperatures fall near freezing. Check out the projected temperatures as of 1pm…
So now, once we move into the afternoon… temperatures are now cold enough to support wintry precipitation falling to the ground. And as a result, it’s the afternoon where problems could arise across the Hudson Valley.
This simulation for 4pm Thursday afternoon is still fairly accurate. We expect a widespread area of steady sleet to fall across the majority of the Hudson Valley. As you move into the Catskills and the northern Hudson Valley, the sleet could transition over to snow. With the colder temperatures at the surface… it’s likely that we’ll begin to see the sleet and snow accumulate to the ground… both the paved and unpaved surfaces. So with a prolonged period of steady sleet possible for the afternoon… an icy PM commute is possible anywhere north of I-287.
The precipitation area is small, and rather fast moving. So just as quickly as it begins, it will taper off. The sleet and snow will exit from west to east, between 4pm and 7pm across the region.
We’re still working on the exact details… and will be busy through the night. We’ll likely have a live stream on Facebook, and numerous updates as we gather more information. A Final Storm Forecast is possible late tonight, after midnight… or by sunrise on Thursday.