Fall weather has descended apon the region with a strong high pressure building south out of Canada. Parts of the region saw their first frost on Friday morning. As we head into the weekend we will see highs struggling out of the 50’s with the exception being southern parts of the region where low 60’s are likely.
The big challenge is the growing model consensus that the impacts of the remnants of Ian will have a further north impacted than excepted. The confidence of atleast a moderate rainfall is highest across the southern parts of the region, with impacts lessening to as little as scattered showers across northern most zones.
There is the chance for rainfall exceeding an inch across parts of Orange,Rockland, Westchester Counties if the worst of the data is accurate. We will need to monitor the data to see how this scenario plays out. Attached is the GFS,Euro and NAM depiction of how much rainfall may occur.
As you can see below, like a winter storm we have a sharp precipitation gradient across the region and the moisture associated with Ian battles the high pressure that built in over the region Friday.