Friday Discussion: One More Beautiful Day

Our gorgeous weather pattern will hold for one more day, before we begin to transition to a very unsettled and humid weather pattern over this weekend.

There’s not much to say about our recent weather, besides gorgeous.  Now, as we move into Saturday, we’ll watch a strong upper level system over the Great Lakes begin to generate a strong southerly flow into the Hudson Valley.  This strong flow will cause a coastal low pressure system to develop (much like a winter nor’easter).  This low pressure will need to be watched closely, because it’s track is critical to whether we see 1 to 2 inches of rain on Saturday night and Sunday… or if we will see lighter rainfall amounts. 

So that will keep us busy, determining just how wet our weekend will be.  Once the low pressure passes to our north… the Hudson Valley will remain unsettled and humid, with a strong SE flow.  The upper level low in the Great Lakes will take its time, and keep our pattern unsettled and stormy well into next week.  Anyone concerned about drought in the Hudson Valley… should begin to see those concerns washed away over the next 7 days.

For Friday… try to enjoy the beautiful weather!  It’s going to be a gorgeous afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Strong Storms with Much Needed Rain

The heat and humidity comes to a head on Tuesday, as the hot summer temperatures and very moist atmosphere clash with a strong cold front.  The result will be the development of showers and thunderstorms from mid day on… and some of those storms could become severe…

The day should start with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  The big question mark in terms of severe threat… is how much sunshine we see across the region during the morning.  The more sunshine we see… the warmer and more humid conditions will be… and the more fuel we will have for the afternoon thunderstorms to fire up.

So the clouds mixing with breaks of sun should last until roughly mid day… before we begin to see the T-Storms really build from north to south.

Futurecast Radar 12am – 6pm

You can see on the simulation, that the storms really begin to blossom after 12pm just north of the Hudson Valley, and quickly sink southward into the Hudson Valley between 12 and 3pm, from north to south.  Depending on how much atmospheric instability is generated… these storms could become severe in spots.

Most of us will see the potential for heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts… possibly even some small hail.  A few of us could see damaging wind gusts over 60mph, but as we showed in the first graphic, the odds are roughly 5% to 15% for most of us seeing severe wind gusts.  So while most of us should not see severe T-storms… many of us will see a threat of heavy rain downpours, T-storms, and gusty winds.  But since we can’t pinpoint who will see the severe threat… we all should remain on guard for the duration of the afternoon hours.

Conditions will gradually improve near and after sunset from north to south… and that will also include an end to the high humidity levels.  Expect much cooler, and less humid conditions by Tuesday night and Wednesday.  We’ll try to have updates during the storms on Tuesday, mostly on social media.  But we’ll also have our radar tools on the website and mobile app to help keep you ahead of the action.

Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Heat & Humidity Persist

Some early morning patchy fog in places across the Hudson Valley this morning, as things begin to heat up once again today.

Today
? Mix of Clouds & Sun
High around 90
Heat index in low 90s
Dew point near 70

A hot and humid day will kick off our work week, as the patchy fog burns off and the heat and humidity build. We can’t rule out a stray afternoon shower or t-storm, but they should be very few and far between.

We will see a cold front spread showers and thunderstorms into the region for Tuesday afternoon. So anyone with afternoon plans on Tuesday will want to expect periods of rain, with the potential for strong storms. Later tonight, we’ll try to take a closer look at the rain potential for Tuesday.

Otherwise, be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and have a great start to the work week!

Sunday Afternoon Radar Discussion : Localized Downpours Possible

The heat and humidity are building across the region on this Sunday afternoon.  As we have hazy sunshine mixed with clouds, we’re seeing a few rain shower and T-storm cells developing in spots.  With temperatures in the low to mid 80s… and dew points climbing toward 70°, it’s making for heat index (real feel) temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90°.  A familiar summer-like feel across the region.
Regional Radar: 2pm to 3:30pm
 
As you see on radar, we have a few localized storm cells drifting southward this afternoon.  Along with these cells, expect:
– rain, with locally heavy downpours. 
– thunder and lightning
– gusty winds
 
These cells are moving rather slow, so some areas could see prolonged downpours, that could lead to localized street flooding.  The threat for rain and thunderstorms will be with us through sunset, so be on guard for the threat for a rain delay to your plans.  Have a wonderful afternoon and evening, stay cool and stay dry!

Saturday Drought Discussion: July 14, 2018

We’ve had a lot of comments and concerns in the past couple weeks regarding the drought situation in the Hudson Valley.  It has been dry at times for sure, with plenty of hot, summer days.  The heat wave at the end of June and start of July, baked the region in a multi day stretch with no precipitation.  The result for many of us, is a feeling that things are much worse than they really are…

We added a focused closeup of the Hudson Valley, and as you can see… the SW half of the region is not in any drought condition, while the NE half of the region is “abnormally dry”.  This is indicative of the rather dry period we’ve seen in the Hudson Valley.  The last 10 to 14 days have been very dry, with little rainfall to speak of in many areas.  But if we look at the last 2 months, you can get a better picture of the situation…

You’ll notice, that most of the Hudson Valley has roughly 6 inches of rain in the past 2 months.  The northern Hudson Valley has seen between 4 and 6 inches… while the southern Hudson Valley has seen between 6 and 8 inches of rain.  That is certainly below average for much of the valley, roughly half of normal in spots… to 75% of normal in many other areas.

This is below average for sure, but it’s not critical by any stretch.  It’s the middle of summer, and with the heat we’ve seen… combined with the lack of moisture at the same time… has caused a lot of grass to turn rather crispy, and brown.  However, the bigger picture is not so bleak.  We’ve had concerns about wells drying up, or crops being damaged by the drought.  But in reality, it’s been dry… but we’re not in a drought situation yet.  If this pattern continues without relief… then things will surely change.  But for right now… growers shouldn’t have too much of a concern.

Have a great weekend!

Friday Discussion : Fine Summer Weather

Welcome to summer weather… where there isn’t much to say on a day to day basis.  Sunshine and hot… maybe a little humid.  If that starts to sound repetitive after a while, it does to us as well.  Hence, why you may see less frequent posts… or less interesting discussion.  It’s hard to get worked up about the same weather every day… but that’s good during the summer, we’re all supposed to be enjoying the nice weather.

So for our Friday, we’ve got sunshine and a few clouds, temps in the mid 80s… with very comfortable humidity levels.  Saturday things heat up a bit, and we’ll see a SW wind bring a little extra humidity.  Highs on Saturday around 90°, with dew points into the low 60s… will make things a bit sticky on Saturday.  Then we have to worry about a broken line of T-storms developing during the afternoon and evening…

Futurecast Radar 2pm Saturday – 2am Sunday

You’ll notice that the line of storms falls apart before reaching the Hudson Valley in this simulation.  But we still need to be vigilant about a shower or T-storm pushing into the Hudson Valley toward sunset on Saturday.

Thursday Afternoon Discussion : Sun and Fun

The tranquil summer weather pattern continues to hold over the Hudson Valley, and it’s giving us a beautiful Thursday afternoon across the region.

Poughkeepsie @ 4pm
Sunny ?? 84°
Dew point 45° = very low humidity

Similar conditions are being felt all across the region, as another fine summer day begins to head toward evening. We’ll have another great day shaping up for Friday, with similar conditions to what we’ve seen today across the Hudson Valley.

We’re watching a weak front that could bring some clouds and perhaps a shower or two to the region on Saturday and Saturday night. In the wake of that, we’ll see the heat build back toward 90°… and some slightly higher humidity levels for Sunday and on into the work week.

Have a wonderful afternoon and evening!

Monday Discussion : Nice Summer Weather Continues

After a beautiful weekend of weather, our great weather pattern continues as we head into the work week.  A Canadian air-mass has provided us with low humidity levels through the weekend, and it will extend into the work week.  It will feel every bit of summer, however… as temperatures on Monday will climb well into the 80s, under a mostly sunny sky.  Dew points in the 50s will make for a comfortable heat across the Hudson Valley.  So a very nice start to the work week… feeling every bit of summer across the region.

Tuesday the heat will build a bit more, likely pushing 90° in most spots.  But dew points should remain near 60°, making it not too uncomfortable.  A weak front will approach during the afternoon, and could spread a few extra clouds into the area… as well as a stray T-storm or shower.  They will be very few and far between… but can’t be ruled out.  Most places may end up staying dry, we’ll see as we get closer.

A nice start to the work week… enjoy your Monday!

Saturday Discussion : Picture Perfect and Delightful

We’ll keep this one short and sweet… because we’re going to get outside and enjoy it.  After the weather of the past week, with the brutal heat and humidity… today feels outstanding!  With the passage of the cold front on Friday, we’ve seen the winds shift around to the NW and a very dry… very comfortable air mass has settled into the valley.

Expect lots of sunshine and blue skies on both Saturday and Sunday.  We’ll see low humidity on both days as well.  Saturday will feel refreshing… as highs climb into the upper 70s and near 80°.  Then on Sunday, we’ll see highs climb into the low and mid 80s for many parts of the region… possibly even some upper 80s.  But once again… with very low humidity levels, the heat should be quite manageable.

Enjoy what will surely be a glorious weekend in terms of weather!

Friday Discussion : AM Storms, Clearing Late Day

After a week long weather pattern, that featured oppressive heat and humidity at times, we’ll finally see a change in the pattern beginning on Friday.

Futurecast Radar : 1am – 7pm Friday

We start the day on Friday with showers and thunderstorms, out ahead of an approaching cold front.  The showers will spread into the region early on Friday morning, probably before sunrise.  Then the rain will be with us through mid day… before gradually tapering off during the early afternoon hours.  Clouds will then hold on, slowly clearing toward evening.  We’ll be very humid during the morning hours, slowly seeing that humidity drop during the afternoon.  Temps should be in the 70s during the morning, probably climbing into the low 80s during the afternoon hours, especially if there are breaks of sunshine.  And as of now, it does appear that we will have some breaks of sunshine by evening… which is great news for our friends at the HV Balloon Festival…

Hopefully some of you will be able to enjoy this fun event.  We’re very happy to be partners with them, and the weekend weather couldn’t be better!

Saturday and Sunday both look outstanding!  Lots of sunshine and blue skies, with very low humidity.  The wind will be out of the NW, but not too strong.  That will keep us dry, with very comfortable humidity levels.   Highs on Saturday are likely right around 80°, and Sunday we likely climb into the mid 80s.

After the week of heat and humidity we’ve just been through… this looks like a GORGEOUS stretch of weekend weather!  We hope you can enjoy it!