Forecast Discussions

A very slow moving, nearly stalled cold front with waves of low pressure moving along it with bring a prolonged period of rain across the region today through Saturday.It appears that rain today will me scattered in nature and pick up in coverage and intensity as we head into the very early hours of Friday and continuing in varying intensity through Saturday, guidance has the precip pulling out of the region between noon and 4pm on Saturday, we will iron out that time a bit more by tomorrow.  Below are the NAM,GFS and EURO total precipitation ending Saturday.

As you can see, there is a good consensus that the axis of heaviest rainfall with be across the Hudson Valley, With 1-2 inches being the general theme, although the Catskills will see upwards of 4 inches of rain thanks to terrain enhancement. Ahead of this front we will see temps surge as a strong southerly flow pushes warm air into the region.

Temps will feel like spring on Friday afternoon as 60’s and 70’s surge north! Notice that bit of blue on the far left side of the map? That is the colder air associated with the incoming front, when the front pushes through it will push through with a vengeance!

Exactly 24 hours later we are knocked back down to reality, so much so that the precip will likely end as wet snow across the Catskills and the Taconics as the cold air crashes into the region.

A crisp morning across the region this morning, had a widespread frost at my house in Ulster County this morning. Don’t let this cold start trick your treat for later this evening. A warm front is lifting through the region so temps will rebound nicely throughout the day with temps peaking into the upper 50’s and low 60’s from the low temps this morning.  The only devil in the details is a slowly approaching cold front moving towards the region. Clouds will also be increasing throughout the day with overcast skies in place by this evening.

Short range guidance suggests that the moisture associated with this will front will remain north of the region, as the cold front will struggle to push into the region. Chance of rain for the evening continues to be low probability although we can’t rule out a few rouge showers. So trick or treating should not only be fairly warm, but also dry! Looking ahead into Thursday and Friday, this cold front eventually does make its way into our region and stalls out, meaning a prolonged period of unsettled weather with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts exceeding 1-2 inches by Friday evening. We will have more on the incoming rain threat later this evening and tomorrow. Everyone have a great day!

A decent afternoon in place across the region this afternoon with mid 40’s to 50’s in place across most of the region with the exception of some colder spots across the higher terrain.  Clearing skies tonight with lighter winds than last night should allow us to cool off quite a bit with temps dropping into the 30’s.

A southerly flow building into the region means a much warmer Halloween than we have been seeing in terms of October temps with highs pushing into the 50’s with some spots even break 60 across the valley. We are watching a cold front that will push into the region tomorrow night, along it there may be some scattered shower activity that could impact some trick or treating, although it appears limited to the Nw parts of the region.

The second area of low pressure in 72 hours is pushing northeastward, bringing another round of scattered light rain showers to the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar: 12am – 6pm Monday

We’ll see the scattered rain showers pushing through during the early morning hours on Monday, and mostly exiting before noon.  However a brief, stray light rain shower can’t be ruled out through the afternoon.  Temperatures on Monday will climb into the low 50s… but during the afternoon, we’ll notice an increasing westerly wind, gusting over 20mph at times.  So a rather breezy afternoon is heading our way.

We’ll see a warming trend through the week… as a high pressure sets up over the eastern US and western Atlantic.  This will keep the weather tranquil, but moderating in terms of temperatures.  By Wednesday, Halloween is looking to see above average temperatures, pushing into the low 60s for highs.  And with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s for overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday… a comfortable trick-or-treat event seems in the cards.  Some welcome news to all the parents, family and friends who will be out and about Wednesday evening.

So a good start to the week… after we get through some scattered showers early on Monday.  Have a great day!

If you check the mid day radar, it looks like things are improving across the Hudson Valley. 

The radar shows the heavy rains to our north, and the spotty light rain showers left in the Hudson Valley.  But what this radar doesn’t take into account is the strong, locally damaging wind gusts out of the northeast.  Gusts over 35mph are possible at times, which can cause localized power outages (such as the one in the Pine Bush area, at my [Bill’s] house)

The afternoon will contain strong wind gusts and rain showers of varying intensities all over the region.  Temps will hold in the 40s in general, so make sure you’ve got your umbrellas and rain gear handy.  On second thought, you may want to skip the umbrella… the wind will likely rip it out of your hands.

Stay warm and dry this afternoon!

A glance at the current radar shows our Nor Easter developing to our south…

Moisture associated with the storm will reach our southern most zones by later this evening and overspread the remainder of the region tonight. Temps have not risen much today and will likely drop back down to below freezing across the Catskills tonight. Once precipitation begins we will see temps drop a few more degrees as well. This should be enough for a wintry mix and wet snow to fall across the higher terrain above 1500’. The highest and mostly uninhabited peaks and summits will likely see a prolonged period of wet snow that lasts into Saturday.

The weather pattern sure has changed from what we saw in September.  Instead of mild and muggy… we’ve shifted to blustery and cold.  For the afternoon on Thursday, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Winds will be howling out of the NW at 10 to 15mph, and gusts will climb over 25mph at times.  So make sure you’ve got a firm grip on the steering wheel today when driving.  Afternoon temperatures will struggle to climb into the mid and upper 40s this afternoon… but with the gusty wind… the wind chill will hold in the 30s and low 40s.  So be sure to bundle up!

Anyone looking for info about the weekend nor’easter, our Wednesday Discussion is still valid, in terms of what to expect.  We’ll try to take a closer look again tonight, to discuss if any details have changed.  Have a great Thursday!

With two blustery and cold days lined up for Wednesday and Thursday, we want to focus on the potential for a significant coastal development as we reach the weekend.  The upper level jet stream pattern at 500mb paints an ominous picture for the development of a coastal storm along the Mid Atlantic coast…

A large, elongated area of upper level low pressure extends across the eastern half of the United States.  Rather than a focused area of upper level low pressure, there are likely to be multiple areas of upper level low pressure (as indicated on the graphic).  The significance of this, is important… in terms of how intense of a coastal storm we are likely to see.  If the area of low pressure were deeper and more focused, we could be talking about a major nor’easter… and possibly Oct-Snowber 2018.

Instead… we’re looking at one… possibly 2 notable coastal storms in a matter of 3 or 4 days…

The first storm likely develops Friday night or early Saturday off the coast of Virginia.  It will likely hug the coast, and move northward… spreading a cold rain across the Hudson Valley and northeast… likely late Friday night into Saturday.  The winds with this system are likely to be quite strong out of the NE, gusting over 25mph at times.  Rainfall amounts over 1 inch are possible, depending on the speed and track of the system… something that will need to be ironed out as we get closer.

This storm likely falls apart on Sunday, as it storms itself out over the Great Lakes… we’ll have to see how it unfolds.  But what is intriguing, is a 2nd area of low pressure could develop along the Mid Atlantic Coast near Virginia on Monday or Tuesday.  This would be in response to the 2nd area of upper level low pressure rolling through the eastern US trough.  So we’ll have to watch for a 2nd round of rain and wind early next week… possibly Tuesday.

If this were the middle of winter, we’d likely be talking about 1… if not 2 significant snow events in the next 7 days.  However, it is only late October… and we’re just not there yet.  This is good news for the winter weather haters… as we’ll have some raw and windy weather to contend with, instead of winter weather.  But rest east, winter weather lovers… your time will come.  The winter season is coming, all in due time.

We’ve had MANY questions regarding our winter outlook for the 18-19 season.  We thank you for your patience and understanding, as we’ve had a very full plate over the last month or so, and the outlook is still in the process of being put together.  But we’ll have it out soon, and you’ll soon be able to see how we think this winter will shake out, as the days get shorter and shorter.  Keep an eye out for more updates and information.

Have a great Wednesday!

Cold week ahead for the region with highs struggling out of the 40’s most days although we may squeeze some low 50’s in some locations. Overall a tranquil work week with not much to discuss, that will give us lots of time to monitor the threat of a large Nor Easter that looks to impact the region for the weekend.

The remains of Pacific Hurricane Willa looks to merge with a deep trough over the NE, this will result in a rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast. The result may bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. Thanks to the deep trough in place there is some cold air available this may allow a wintry aspect to this storm as well, as of now this looks limited to the higher elevations. Either way, lots to track and we will be posting frequent updates on this storm threat.