Forecast Discussions

The heat and humidity are building across the region, and the atmospheric instability is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up on radar.

Regional Radar Loop: 12:50pm – 2:20pm

Temperatures across the Hudson Valley are in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dew points are in the upper 60s in general. That’s providing a lot of fuel for these storms to blossom, and we’re seeing that on the latest radar. Look at how over the last hour and a half, the storms have increased in number and intensity.

In the Friday Discussion, we outlined the weekend’s weather in a general, broad way.  Now that we’re right on the doorstep of Saturday, we have a better understanding of how things should play out on Saturday.  Unfortunately, for our local graduations, things aren’t looking great.

Futurecast Radar: 11pm Friday to 5pm Saturday

As it now appears… scattered showers develop over the Hudson Valley by sunrise on Saturday.  It appears that heavier showers and even a few downpours could occur through the morning hours, before moving north of the Hudson Valley during the early afternoon hours.  Unfortunately, most of the morning is now looking rainy, with the afternoon likely cloudy, cool and damp… with areas of patchy drizzle and spotty rain showers.

This means that most outdoor graduations could see delays, or find themselves being moved in doors.  If your graduation is “rain or shine”… you’re going to want the umbrella.  Here’s the longer range futurecast radar, that takes us up through Sunday afternoon…

Futurecast Radar: 2pm Saturday through 6pm Sunday

 

This graphic begins at 2pm on Saturday, and you can see that once the heaviest batch of rain has just exited the region by that point.  That leaves us likely left with low clouds, areas of patchy drizzle… and even a spot shower or two.  It seems likely that no widespread organized areas of rain occur through much of the mid afternoon hours, through sunrise on Sunday (although we’ll have to watch a cluster of showers and storms that will likely just miss the Hudson Valley to our south around sunset).  That doesn’t mean it will be nice… quite the contrary, with highs around 70° and a damp feel to the air.  But your outdoor plans may not totally be washed out.

The last 12 frames of the futurecast graphic above are roughly sunrise to sunset on Sunday… you’ll see showers and thunderstorms popping up across the region for Sunday afternoon at the very end of the loop.  So Sunday looks warmer, with breaks of sun, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  So once again on Sunday, outdoor activities will have to dodge a shower or t-storm.

So unfortunately we don’t have great news… but the setup is what it is.  Anyone with plans Saturday morning will need an umbrella, and things should begin to dry out from south to north around mid day in the Hudson Valley.  The afternoon looks cloudy and damp, with temps around 70°, and the threat of patchy drizzle and a stray shower.  We hope that you’re still able to have a wonderful day… in spite of the weather.  Have a great day!

It’s that time of year.  That weekend in late June, where many of the regional schools have their graduation.  That’s going to mean lots of outdoor parties and events… so the weather is of extra importance to many of us this weekend.  Unfortunately, things are looking less than optimal… so let’s take a look.

Friday

Things are starting out OK, with mostly sunny skies early.  But we’ll have clouds advancing into the region through the day.  Temps will be right near normal… a few degrees on either side of 80°.  Here’s a snapshot of the futurecast radar for 6pm, right around the time many evening ceremonies may be starting…

The map shows lots of high and mid level clouds in the region, which means that breaks of sun will be decreasing toward sunset, but what we don’t see on this image, is rain showers.  So despite the increasing clouds… it looks like we stay dry.  Making for a decent Friday evening.

Saturday

Unfortunately, things go down hill on Saturday.  Let’s start with taking a look at the simulated radar for the day on Saturday…

Futurecast Radar: 5am to 8pm Saturday

Any time we see a setup like this beyond 24 hours, we strongly suggest not focusing on the details.  The reason, is that the details of the timing will likely change.  But for now, the futurecast suggests a period of rain with thunderstorms at sunrise on Saturday across the region.  By late morning… the steady rain showers appear to exit the Hudson Valley… but clouds, spot rain showers and areas of drizzle seem to last through much of the afternoon.

What we’ve seen, many times, is that these weather patterns cause the guidance to struggle with timing and placement of rain showers.  The exact timing of the rain showers may change… but you can see that it’s going to be unsettled for most of the day.  Anyone with outdoor plans for Saturday, will likely have to dodge the threat of rain showers all day.  Temps will also be held down by the clouds and showers… with highs struggling to reach the low 70s in many places.  Here’s the total projected rainfall from sunrise on Saturday thru sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday

Things on Sunday don’t look too much better.  The guidance has periods of light to moderate rain push through the Hudson Valley for much of the day.  The timing of the showers on Sunday, likely won’t be reliable until Saturday evening.  What is more reliable, is the total rainfall projected for the 24 hours from sunrise on Sunday through sunrise on Monday…

This allows us to look at a more generalized period of time… a 24 hour window… instead of trying to focus on an exact timing.  This map suggests that periods of light rain showers are focused on the northern half of the Hudson Valley.  It also suggests that the further south you go, the less rain you might see.   The reason for these assumptions is that we see a general 0.2 to 0.6 inches of rain focused from the I-84 corridor on north… and that once you get south of I-287, the measurable rainfall is near 0.0″.

Now, over the next day or two, the guidance will try to iron out exactly when the rain falls… and where it will fall.  So it’s not worth getting focused on the details of when the rain will fall, and where it will fall.  For instance, your weather app that says “Cloudy at 12pm Saturday” and “Showers at 2pm Saturday”… is unreliable.  If you have plans from 12 to 2pm, you cannot infer that you might be ‘in the clear’.  Because the details could surely change, and shift the rain threat earlier… or later for that matter.

We know this is upsetting for many people with important plans, but it’s worth sharing.  With widespread instability, and no organized widespread area of rain expected… the spotty rain showers are too small and localized to pinpoint their exact timing and location.  So anyone using a weather app may find themselves pulling their hair out, seeing the forecast for Saturday at 12pm change 2 or 3 times on Saturday.

Unfortunately, the best bet at this point, is to plan for the general pattern each day… and that’s unsettled, with the threat of light rain showers, areas of drizzle… and even some localized downpours.  The weekend looks unsettled, Hudson Valley… we’re sorry we don’t have better news.  We’ll try to provide updates through the weekend, to let you know when we think the best chances for rain are.  Thanks for all your support!

After a scorching day on Monday… Tuesday was followed up with a rather warm, sunny summer day.  As we begin our Wednesday… things will start off much the same way Tuesday ended, with sunshine.  But clouds will increase through the day, and by late afternoon… we could see a few scattered showers in the region.

So for the daytime on Wednesday, sunshine fades behind clouds and highs are around 80°.  Then we watch as a disturbance approaches the region from the southwest.  It appears likely to clip the southern Hudson Valley with rain showers by sunset, and those showers could last overnight.  Let’s take a look at the futurecast radar…

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Wednesday through 6am Thursday

You’ll notice that a few spotty showers could reach our area between 4 and 8pm, but they seem very light and very spotty.  Then a more organized batch of rain should approach from the west.  You can see on the futurecast, that the rain area appears likely to focus from the I-84 corridor on south… between 6pm and 6am.

Now any time you have a situation like this, a very minor change in the track of the rain could mean more or less rain across the region.  So everyone should expect the threat for showers… but the odds are highest as you go further south.  Here’s the total projected rainfall…

You’ll notice the bulk of the rain is from I-84 on south… with maybe a few sprinkles near Poughkeepsie and Monticello.  So our northern viewers are likely to stay dry… while our southern viewers could pick up a decent amount of rain.

So expect the threat of rain Wednesday night, with things drying out early on Thursday.  Thursday’s weather looks great, and that leads into the weekend… where things become quite unsettled.  Right now, the weekend looks to see scattered showers and thunderstorms… with some more humid air.  The pattern looks a bit tricky… so check back to see if the details change for this coming weekend.

Happy hump day!

After a very active and very hot start to the work week, things look to return to a more tranquil status on Tuesday.

Clouds will mix with sunshine quickly on Tuesday, as cooler and drier air moves in from the north.  Afternoon highs will be about 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday.  Monday’s high in Poughkeepsie was 94°, and Tuesday’s high should be closer to 84°.  But the big difference will be with regard to the humidity levels on Tuesday.  Monday was quite oppressive, with dew points around 70°… on Tuesday, dew points will be much more comfortable, in the low 50s.  So instead of a hot and humid, mid summer day… Tuesday will see a more comfortable summer day.

This tranquil weather pattern will hold through the rest of the week… with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.  The one possible exception to this will be on Wednesday, where we will track a disturbance passing by to our south.  It could clip the southern edge of the valley as it does… and spread some clouds and a few spotty showers especially from I-84 on south.  We’ll have to track it… but either way it’s a minor issue for our area.

Monday Severe Weather Recap

We had notable severe weather event across the Hudson Valley on Monday.

You’ll notice that the reports are all wind damage across the Hudson Valley.  Reports were focused in Sullivan and Dutchess counties primarily.  Dutchess saw a severe cell push through around 4pm, and then a more organized line of thunderstorms pushed from west to east around 6pm.  We saw primarily reports of down trees and power lines in the areas where reports came in.  The size and scope of the event was no where near the major event from last month.  But it definitely packed a punch.

Feel free to share any reports in the comments section, but hopefully not too many of you were significantly impacted by the event.  Have a great Tuesday!

We saw the temperatures climb into the upper 80s across the region on Sunday… on Monday, we’ll see the heat and humidity in full effect.

Sunshine and blue skies will start our day on Monday, but the heat and humidity will overshadow the sunshine.  A SW wind will usher in some humidity and by mid day, many of us will have temps around 90°.  Highs by mid afternoon on Monday will top out between 90° and 95°.  But the rising dew points around 70° will make for ‘real feel’ heat index values between 95° and 100°.

So the heat and humidity will be the highest it’s been so far in 2018 on Monday.  But as luck would have it, we’ll have another weather story on Monday.  As the heat and humidity arrive in the Hudson Valley, it will be met by a cold front dropping south from Canada.  That will result in some atmospheric instability, and it could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, and a few could be severe.

The National Weather Service currently has the severe weather threat focused just north of the Hudson Valley.  It wouldn’t surprise us to see that “Slight Risk” area shift further south, into the Hudson Valley on Monday.  The reason is that a broken line of scattered thunderstorms is likely develop between 2 to 4pm, and push south during the late afternoon.

Futurecast Radar : 9am Monday to 6am Tuesday

• Timing the threat : 3pm to 8pm
• Scattered T-Storms, damaging wind gusts over 50mph possible
• 5% to 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 30 miles of your location

We’ll have scattered showers and thunderstorms develop to our north, and push southeast during the afternoon.  In terms of the scope of this severe threat, it’s not nearly as large as the major severe weather outbreak we experienced about a month ago (On a scale of 1 to 5… Monday’s threat is between a 1 and 2… while the major outbreak last month was a 4).  But we will have to watch the storms as they flare up, as a few could become severe.

We’ll try to share updates on social media as things develop.  But a busy weather day to start our work week, with heat and humidity… and the threat of scattered strong to severe storms.  No matter the weather, we hope you have a great Monday!

We’ll see 2 sides to summer this weekend.  We start with the nice side, which features summer temps in the 80s… with low humidity.

Rather light winds and dew points in the low 50s will make for a comfortable summer heat.  Despite the temps in the 80s this afternoon… it should be quite nice for anyone who likes summer weather.

Things warm up for Father’s Day on Sunday, as we watch the temps push toward 90° in the afternoon.  The good news is that the humidity should not build until late on Sunday.  Making for real feel temperatures very close to the actual air temperature… so it will be right around 90°, and feel like it’s right around 90°… every bit like summer.

Monday, will be the hottest day of 2018 so far.  The heat and humidity will be in full effect, with temps pushing well into the 90s…

But when you realize that dew point temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s… making for a VERY sticky day.  Look at these projected Heat Index (real feel) temps for Monday afternoon…

So make sure you factor this into your plans as we start the work week.  The heat and humidity will border on oppressive, so you’ll want to limit your outdoor activities on Monday.  The good news, is that the heat only lasts 1 day.  By Tuesday we’ll track scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing into the region, and that will bring temps back into the 80s across the Hudson Valley.

For now… enjoy a gorgeous Saturday!

A beautiful stretch of weather will continue, and carry us into the start of the weekend.

An area of disturbance will pass by to our east on Friday, which will lead to some clouds to start our day.  Those clouds should mix with increasing sunshine during the afternoon.  A NW flow will keep temperatures a touch below average for this time of year… in the mid 70s.  Combined with the low humidity… it should make for a very comfortable and enjoyable start to the weekend.

Heat and Humidity Builds Late Weekend

Saturday looks a few degrees warmer, with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Afternoon highs on Saturday should be in the low 80s.  But the flow then shifts out of the SW… and our weekend weather begins to change.

Sunday will bring us a mix of sunshine and clouds, but increased levels of heat.  Temps on Sunday should climb into the mid and upper 80s across the Hudson Valley.  In addition, increasing dew points will be felt from west to east… so as the afternoon progresses, the more uncomfortable it will feel.

By Monday… the heat and humidity peaks across the Hudson Valley…

Temperatures around the region will surge into the low and mid 90s.  Most notably, dew points will climb near or above the 70° mark.  That will make for some very uncomfortable… heat index values between 100° and 105°.  If you have outdoor plans for Monday… or plans that don’t involve air conditioning, make sure you begin to factor that in to your plans.  It’s likely going to be the hottest day of 2018 so far, so be sure to be ready for that.

We’ll track the approaching heat through the weekend… but after a beautiful start to the weekend, we’ll see heat and humidity on the rise for Father’s Day on Sunday, and especially on Monday.  Have a great Friday!

When dealing with summer time weather, people’s perspectives can vary greatly.  What I consider to be gorgeous weather, you could consider too hot.  A day that you consider very comfortable, could be too cool to another person.  So when we say “possibly picture perfect”… it’s always in the eye of the beholder.

We should see mostly sunny skies on Thursday, and very comfortable conditions.  A NW wind will usher in dry air, and push dew points down near 50°.  That will make for very low humidity levels.  At the same time, the warm June sun should help afternoon highs climb up into the upper 70s and toward 80° in many parts of the valley.  As usual, our friends in the Catskills will be a few degrees cooler, in the low to mid 70s.  All in all… a beautiful summer day across the region… at least in our opinion.

Friday we’ll watch an area of instability push over New England, and out to sea.  That shouldn’t affect our area, other than a few clouds in the morning.  But the NW flow should keep us a touch cool on Friday, with temps in the mid 70s and low humidity.  That’s roughly 5 degrees below average for this time of year.

The weekend starts out nice, with sunshine and warmth on Saturday… and temps pushing near or just above 80°.  Then the flow shifts SW on Sunday… and the heat builds into the region for Father’s Day.  Temps on Sunday likely push into the mid and upper 80s, but humidity levels may stay in check… we’ll have to watch.  But by Monday… all signs point to an oppressively hot day.

Certainly we’ll be tracking the pattern over the coming days… but Monday looks to see hazy, hot and humid conditions.  Dew points could climb into the low 70s.  Afternoon highs on Monday could surge into the mid 90s… which would combine with the humidity to generate Heat index ‘real feel’ temps between 100° and 105°!  We’ll get updates as we get closer… but the work week next week could start out oppressive.

For now… let’s enjoy the beautiful weather in the region.  Have a great Thursday!

Clouds have moved into the valley this morning, and we are tracking some scattered showers moving our way. So for today, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers possible through the day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s in most places. The sun will return tomorrow, as nice weather will close out the work week. Have a great Wednesday