Monday Discussion : Steamy Sauna

We are smack in the middle of a scorching heat wave across the Hudson Valley.  Another afternoon of hot and humid conditions, as we see temperatures into the mid 90s… and ‘real feel’ heat index values 100° to 105° in many places today.

We’ve been discussing the situation for days, and by now, we all know the precautions to take.  We have to take it slow outside, and not over do it.  Make sure to drink plenty of fluids, especially water and sports drinks.  You want to be sure you don’t dehydrate with the very high humidity levels around the region.  With ‘real feel’ heat index values approaching 105°, heat exhaustion and heat stroke can set in after a short period of time.  Make sure you take it slow out there.

As we look toward Tuesday, the heat and humidity will be back on the menu.  Afternoon highs in the mid 90s, with high dew points and real feel heat index values in he upper 90s to 105°.  The big difference on Tuesday, is that we could see one or two isolated T-storms pop up in the afternoon.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Tuesday to 12am Wednesday

You’ll notice that we get a few spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the Hudson Valley during the mid afternoon hours.  Instability will be very high, so the ingredients for a heavy downpour and possibly a potent T-Storm are surely there.  The T-storm could help cool the temps for a bit… but they won’t provide any break from the humidity.  If anything, the storms will only add to the humidity… making it even more uncomfortable.

This will likely continue into Wednesday as well.  Temperatures on Wednesday will once again climb into the 90s, with real feel heat index values again pushing 100° to 105°.  The saving grace could be the T-storms scattered about.  While not providing much relief… they could prevent temperatures from climbing too high.  We’ll have to track things as they develop on Tuesday, to see if storms become a widespread issue.

Otherwise… the heat is on for much of the week.  Some relief on the way by week’s end.  It looks like some T-Storms could roll through Thursday night , and bring us some relief by Friday afternoon and Saturday.  The timing of the front needs to be ironed out… but it should bring an end to the uncomfortable heat for the weekend.  Which at this point, sounds pretty good.  Something to look forward to.

Have a great afternoon!

Sunday Discussion : The Heat is On!

We’ve lucked out a bit (believe it or not), as the heat and humidity are in full effect on this Sunday.  The reason we say ‘lucky’, is because temperatures are not as severe as some data suggested they would be.  That said… the heat, and especially the humidity, are extremely uncomfortable, and borderline dangerous. 
 
2pm Airport Temperatures:
Poughkeepsie: 91° (feels like 98°)
Newburgh: 90° (feels like 100°)
Montgomery: 91° (feels like 100°)
Westchester Co: 92° (feels like 98°)
Monticello: 90° (feels like 96°)
When we look at local private reporting stations, we’re seeing higher humidity levels creating higher “real feel” temperatures.  HVW Headquarters in Hurley, just west of Kingston, have a current temp of 92° and a heat index of 102°.  But heat index values are generally between 100° and 105° at this hour.
 
So it’s early afternoon, and we have several hours of heating left across the region.  That means that we could watch temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s, and heat index values climb toward 110° and possibly higher.  These are dangerous conditions if you’re not properly prepared.  So make sure you take it slow out there:
– Drink plenty of water / sports drinks
– Avoid extended periods in direct sun
– Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity
– Check on children and seniors
 
So on the positive side, conditions are not as brutal as we worried a couple days ago.  But conditions are still extremely uncomfortable, and potentially dangerous.  It will get hotter and more humid this afternoon, so it may not be 100° with a heat index of 115°… but it’s still low to mid 90s, with a heat index of 95° to 105°.  Make sure you stay cool and stay hydrated.  Have a good afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : The Heat Builds

Friday was quite hot around the Hudson Valley with Poughkeepsie recording a high of 90°.  We’re only going to get hotter in the coming days, and that begins on Saturday.

We’ll see mostly sunny skies and a lot of heat across the region.  The mercury will climb into the low and possibly mid 90s across the Hudson Valley, as we closely watch exactly how hot it gets, in an attempt to fine tune how intense the coming days will be.  The good news, is that the humidity won’t be oppressive on Saturday.  Make no mistake, it won’t be a walk in the park… but it won’t be dangerous across the region.  Real Feel temperatures in the mid 90s, very close to the actual air temperature… will mean that you’ll need to take it slow, and stay well hydrated.  A mid summer day for sure on Saturday.

Sunday, things get dangerous across the Hudson Valley, as the mercury rises into the mid and upper 90s… possibly near 100° in some spots.

It’s the humidity that will be incredibly uncomfortable on Sunday.  Temperatures between 95° and 102°, likely combine with dew points between 70° and 75°.  That will make for a ‘real feel’ heat index of 100° to 115°!

We mentioned that we’re going to be closely watching things on Saturday in an attempt to determine whether the European or American model is likely correct with regard to Sunday.  It’s a brutal day, no matter what… and dangerous at that.  However, it could mean the difference between 105° heat index and 115°.  That’s the difference between very uncomfortable and very dangerous.

As we said yesterday, remember to take use extreme caution:

– Check on seniors and those who may need assistance.
– Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity.
– Drink plenty of fluids, water and sports drinks.  Alcohol and sugar drinks will dehydrate you further.
– Avoid extended exposure to sunshine without shade

These conditions look likely to continue into Monday and Tuesday… possibly not as bad as Sunday, but we will have to keep a close eye on things.  By Wednesday, we may see a boundary drift southward over the Hudson Valley, and that could touch off some strong to severe thunderstorms, as the atmosphere would just be packed with potential.  But we’ll worry about that as we get closer.

For now… be sure to prepare yourself for the heat.  If you don’t take these conditions seriously, heat exhaustion and heat stroke could set in rather quickly.  Stay cool, Hudson Valley!

Friday Discussion : Intense Heat Wave Discussion

After a deluge on Wednesday night that ended Thursday morning, we saw scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  We’ve been quite dry over the last 60 days, so this rainfall was very welcome.  Here’s the rainfall total ending Thursday morning, it doesn’t include the afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms…

But now we turn toward the weekend, and the impending heat wave that is barreling toward the Hudson Valley.  Things start off decent on Friday, with a hot summer day…

Temperatures are surely hot, but not oppressive.  More importantly… the humidity should remain in check on Friday.  So yes, it will be hot… but not oppressive.  Things warm further on Saturday, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s across the Hudson Valley.

Poughkeepsie is projected to reach 95° on this map… so our forecast is a general 90° to 95° across the region.  Once again, humidity levels will rise a touch… but not to oppressive levels.  So Saturday will be hot, but not terribly humid.  You’ll want to take it a bit slow on Saturday, as the heat will surely be on the rise.

Sunday is the day things get oppressive, and potentially dangerous.  We have some concern about ‘exactly’ how high the temperatures get, so we’ll show you the conservative and the aggressive high temperatures for Sunday.  First the European model’s slightly conservative projection…

The European model projects highs in the mid to upper 90s across the valley, with low 90s in the Catskills.  The American GFS model suggests that temperatures could surge even higher than this on Sunday…

Potentially widespread high temperatures between 98° and 103°!?  This would be incredible if it were to come true.  For this reason, we remain skeptical of what would be widespread record high temperatures.  However, with extreme heat like this… we can’t rule it out.

More problematic, are the ‘real feel’ heat index values projected by both the European and American models.

Even if the conservative estimate is correct, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 100° to 110° on Sunday.  If the highs actually climb above 100°, with the humidity factored in… it could feel like 105° to 115°!!

These are DANGEROUS conditions, ladies and gentlemen.  Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can set in quickly, due to the high toll these conditions take on the human body.  It is imperative that we take extra precautions on Sunday and into Monday:

  • Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity
  • Drink plenty of fluids (water and electrolytes)
  • Avoid extended periods of exposure to the sun
  • Check on Seniors and Children as well as pets

These conditions are expected to last well into the work week, but beginning Sunday, and lasting into Monday and Tuesday… we could see high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100°, and heat index values between 100° and 115°!  Please begin to plan accordingly.  We will track the heat through the weekend and into the coming week.  Such intense and extended periods of heat will surely put a strain on our electrical grid.  We could experience brown outs as a result of electricity overuse.  Please try to conserve as much energy as you can.  We’ll likely share information from our partners at Central Hudson, as they begin to recommend action for us to take.

A busy week in the middle of summer for us.  Be sure to check back with us for information as we go through the weekend.  Be safe, and have a nice Friday!

Thursday Discussion : Afternoon Instability

After a much needed soaking overnight and early this morning, we’ve seen much of the Hudson Valley dry out as we approach mid day. But while the precipitation has tapered in most places… we have very humid conditions across the region and temperatures in the 70s. That’s going to lead to some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon.
Radar Loop : 10am – 11:22am
This radar loop tells the story fairly well. You’ll notice the main area of rain exiting east, over Connecticut and Massachusetts. In the wake we have an upper level low pressure to our north, that’s rotating and adding instability to the atmosphere. As a result of that added instability, you’ll notice that as of roughly 11:30am, there are some showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop over Sullivan County and the Catskills.
 
As we move through the afternoon, we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and rotate through the Hudson Valley. These scattered downpours and thunderstorms could contain strong wind gusts and lightning. It’s also possible for one or two of these storms to become strong to severe, so we’ll need to be alert this afternoon. Things should begin to dry out around sunset, but the next few hours look quite unsettled and humid.

Wednesday Afternoon Radar Discussion : Showers Approaching

Clouds have covered the skies across the Hudson Valley, as an area of rain showers approaches from the west.

The scattered rain showers will likely hold off until the evening commute… but a few sprinkles or rain showers are possible this afternoon across the region. Temperatures are being held down as a result of the thick clouds… with most of us in the upper 60s to low 70s. We expect periods of rain overnight, with some downpours and thunder possible toward morning on Thursday. But we’ll have more on that a little later. Complete details are on the website or mobile app. Enjoy your afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Gorgeous Weather

The weather for our Tuesday will look much like our weather from Monday… which was near picture perfect.

After a very chilly night Monday night… that saw many areas in the upper 40s for overnight lows, things have warmed nicely for our Tuesday.  Highs around the region right around 80°, but with a very dry air mass in place, it’s a comfortable warmth.  Dew points in the 40s making for a beautiful Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

As we look toward the middle of the week, we’re watching a storm system approach from the west.  Clouds will increase on Wednesday, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible around sunset and into the night.  A batch of heavy rain and thunderstorms is possible as sunrise approaches on Thursday, which could lead to a very soggy start to our Thursday AM commute.

Then… we’re watching a heat wave head our way for the weekend.  A strong Bermuda high will usher in the hottest 3 day stretch of weather this year… and could give us highs in the mid 90s by Sunday, with humidity making it feel like 100°.

So we’ve got a LOT of weather on the map for the next few days.  Thanks for tracking it all with us at HVW.

Monday Discussion : Sun Returns Once Again

After an unsettled weekend, with multiple chances of scattered rain and thunderstorms… things should quiet down to start the work week.

Clouds will mix with increasing sunshine during the morning hours.  NW Wind will usher in drier air across the region, and provide us a less humid start to the work week.  Afternoon highs should reach into the upper 70s, right around 80° in spots.  The nice weather will stick with us through Tuesday and on into Wednesday… before we begin to track a frontal system for late afternoon Wednesday and on into Thursday.

Hope you have a great start to the work week!

Sunday Afternoon Discussion: T-Storms Flaring Up

The heat and humidity are building across the region, and the atmospheric instability is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up on radar.

Regional Radar Loop: 12:50pm – 2:20pm

Temperatures across the Hudson Valley are in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dew points are in the upper 60s in general. That’s providing a lot of fuel for these storms to blossom, and we’re seeing that on the latest radar. Look at how over the last hour and a half, the storms have increased in number and intensity.

These storms could contain heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds as they move from west to east. There is a slight chance of one or two storms becoming severe… but it’s roughly 5% or less that a severe storm occurs within 30 miles of your location. But we can’t completely rule out a damaging wind gust within one of these storms.

Futurecast Radar: 12pm Sunday – 6am Monday

They will be hit or miss, and the threat will last through sunset across the region. So for the rest of the day, you’ll want to keep an eye on the radar, as a shower or thunderstorm could certainly play a factor into your afternoon plans. We’ll try to share updates as well. But despite the weather… we hope you have a wonderful afternoon!

Saturday Discussion : Raining on Many Parades

In the Friday Discussion, we outlined the weekend’s weather in a general, broad way.  Now that we’re right on the doorstep of Saturday, we have a better understanding of how things should play out on Saturday.  Unfortunately, for our local graduations, things aren’t looking great.

Futurecast Radar: 11pm Friday to 5pm Saturday

As it now appears… scattered showers develop over the Hudson Valley by sunrise on Saturday.  It appears that heavier showers and even a few downpours could occur through the morning hours, before moving north of the Hudson Valley during the early afternoon hours.  Unfortunately, most of the morning is now looking rainy, with the afternoon likely cloudy, cool and damp… with areas of patchy drizzle and spotty rain showers.

This means that most outdoor graduations could see delays, or find themselves being moved in doors.  If your graduation is “rain or shine”… you’re going to want the umbrella.  Here’s the longer range futurecast radar, that takes us up through Sunday afternoon…

Futurecast Radar: 2pm Saturday through 6pm Sunday

 

This graphic begins at 2pm on Saturday, and you can see that once the heaviest batch of rain has just exited the region by that point.  That leaves us likely left with low clouds, areas of patchy drizzle… and even a spot shower or two.  It seems likely that no widespread organized areas of rain occur through much of the mid afternoon hours, through sunrise on Sunday (although we’ll have to watch a cluster of showers and storms that will likely just miss the Hudson Valley to our south around sunset).  That doesn’t mean it will be nice… quite the contrary, with highs around 70° and a damp feel to the air.  But your outdoor plans may not totally be washed out.

The last 12 frames of the futurecast graphic above are roughly sunrise to sunset on Sunday… you’ll see showers and thunderstorms popping up across the region for Sunday afternoon at the very end of the loop.  So Sunday looks warmer, with breaks of sun, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  So once again on Sunday, outdoor activities will have to dodge a shower or t-storm.

So unfortunately we don’t have great news… but the setup is what it is.  Anyone with plans Saturday morning will need an umbrella, and things should begin to dry out from south to north around mid day in the Hudson Valley.  The afternoon looks cloudy and damp, with temps around 70°, and the threat of patchy drizzle and a stray shower.  We hope that you’re still able to have a wonderful day… in spite of the weather.  Have a great day!