Tuesday Discussion : Chilly Day in a Sea of Warm

Early on Monday we saw the cold front push through, and temps tumbled into the 40s behind it.  Now we’ve got a trough over the eastern US that will exit the region just as quickly as it arrived.  Before it leaves, it will serve as a reminder of potential changes coming down the pike.

One more day of NW winds will keep the chill locked into the Hudson Valley and northeast.  That wind shifts Tuesday night, and by Wednesday we’re watching temps climb back into the low 50s for highs by the tail end of the week.  Our next chance of rain comes on Wednesday night and Thursday, as a weak frontal system approaches from the west.  It doesn’t appear to be a washout, but it will give us a chance of showers early on Thursday, so make sure you plan for that potential.

We hope everyone has a wonderful Tuesday.

Monday Discussion : Blustery Changes

Early morning showers will taper off as a cold front pushes through the Hudson Valley from west to east.  By mid morning, much of the region should be drying out, and find the mild showers replaced with blustery NW winds…

Early temperatures will be in the low 50s for the Hudson Valley (40s in the Catskills).  That will be as warm as it gets on Monday, as the cold front causes the temperatures to tumble into the 40s around the region (30s in the Catskills).  The day will be markedly chillier in the afternoon than in the morning.  So make sure you’re not caught off guard by the mild morning… and are dressed properly for the afternoon.

Tuesday looks similar in many ways to the conditions we expect to see Monday afternoon.  A trough over the eastern US won’t last long… but while it does, we expect colder than average conditions in the region.  Highs on Tuesday will struggle into the low 40s, which is about 5 degrees below average for this time of the year.  But beginning on Wednesday, the winds will shift around to the east/southeast… and that should allow temperatures to begin to moderate once more by mid week.  Right now, it looks like our next round of rain showers will be on Thursday, as another system pushes into the Hudson Valley.  We’ll monitor the conditions as we go… but the good news is that the weather shouldn’t be a major issue for Hudson Valley residents this week.  We’ll continue to track a potential pattern change as we head into December.  But for now… we hope your week gets off to a good start.

Weekend Discussion : Soggy End to the Weekend

An approaching storm system from the Ohio Valley will push clouds into the region early on Sunday, and give us a chilly and damp end to the weekend.

Futurecast Radar : Sunday 6am to 7pm

The front edge of the moisture likely reaches the Hudson Valley and Catskills between 9am and 12pm.  It could be cold enough at that point so the moisture falls in the form of wet snow and sleet… especially in the Catskills.  Temps will be above freezing, so we don’t expect any issues… but if you see some wet snow flakes or sleet pellets late Sunday morning, don’t be surprised.

As we move through the afternoon, the chance for patchy drizzle and spot showers will increase.  You can see on the futurecast, that the main area of moisture is over western PA, but there is patchy moisture out ahead of the cold front, that will likely lead to areas of drizzle and spot showers.  It won’t be until after dark that the main area of precipitation arrives… which will give us a soggy Sunday night around the Hudson Valley.

Futurecast Radar : Sunday 8pm through 12pm Monday

Temperatures will start out in the 30s on Sunday… and hold there for much of the morning and into the afternoon hours, before temps slowly rise Sunday night into the low 50s.  The front pushes through early Monday morning, and that will bring an end to the showers Monday morning.  Behind the front, temps will tumble back into the 40s, and a blustery NW wind will restore the chill to the Hudson Valley for Monday afternoon.

Have a great Sunday everyone, we hope you enjoy the day!

Friday Discussion : Milder Sunshine

After a couple cold days that featured highs on Wednesday only in the mid 30s… and Thursday morning lows in the upper teens and low 20s… our Friday looks like a warmer reprieve from our early winter chill.
Friday will be partly to mostly sunny, with a milder SW wind. Despite starting the day in the mid 30s around the region… thanks to that southwest flow, afternoon temperatures should comfortably climb into the mid and upper 50s. A nice afternoon for mid to late November.
As we look toward the weekend, Saturday should again climb into the mid 50s for highs under a mix of clouds and sunshine. A backdoor cold front tries to push south Saturday night, and overnight lows should dip into the upper 20s and low 30s. On Sunday, clouds should increase with a chilly northeast wind, bringing us highs in the low to mid 40s. So the weekend looks to start mild and end chilly.
Our next shot at steady rain comes on Monday with a storm pushing in from the west. So if you have plans on Monday, make sure you plan for the potential of rain.
For now, enjoy the nice autumn weather to close out the work week. Thank you for your continued support, and understanding as we work through some tech issues over the past week or so.

Tuesday Discussion : Winter Slaps Back

We’re at the point in the season where the seasons battle each other repeatedly.  The clashing air masses leads to a wide variety of weather, and in some cases, we see severe weather like we saw on Sunday evening.  Now that the mild air mass has been pushed out of the region, strong NW winds have been ushering in more seasonable air into the region….

In the morning on Tuesday, with a strong WNW wind, it’s possible that scattered wet snow showers and flurries make their way all the way to the valley areas.  With afternoon wind chills projected above in the upper 30s and low 40s, conditions will feel very much like winter around the valley.  So don’t be surprised if we see a few snow flakes around the region…. mixed with rain near the Hudson Valley.

The cold will hold on for the next few days, with highs on Wednesday not climbing out of the 30s.  The winds will slowly shift around to the South by the end of the week, which sets up a milder weekend around the region, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected.  For now, bundle up and enjoy your Tuesday.

Monday Discussion : Return to the Chill

On Sunday, we saw what the clashing of seasons is capable of.  A sharp cold front pushing into a mild air mass, generated strong, locally damaging wind gusts.  We even tracked a likely tornado across eastern Putnam County, into Connecticut.  With the front now passed east of the region, we’ll see a more blustery feel to our Monday around the Hudson Valley.

Sunshine and blustery winds will be with us through the day.  Highs will struggle into the mid and upper 40s.  Winds at 10 to 15mph, will make it feel like the 30s for much of the day.  The chilly conditions will be with us through the start of the week, as chilly air invades the northeast.  Winds will shift as we reach the end of the week, and we should see temps moderate a bit by the weekend.  But after a very warm start to the month of November… a chilly week likely lies ahead.

Have a great start to your week!

Sunday Afternoon Discussion : Tracking the Showers

Radar Loop : 1pm to 2pm Sunday

You can see on the radar loop, that the shower activity we’ve been waiting for, is approaching the region from the west. The first round of showers should arrive between 3pm and 6pm from west to east. Showers during that time should be rather light and spotty. The line of showers furthest west near Pittsburgh is the line that we’re anticipating to strengthen this afternoon, and bring a chance of downpours, possibly some rumbles of thunder, and strong wind gusts. The timing looks to be between 6pm and 9pm from west to east across the Hudson Valley… so we will keep our eyes on this as we go through the afternoon.

Saturday Discussion : Chilly Sunshine

We’ve had a rough week of tech issues, where the website has been down for days, and getting it back up and running has been a considerable challenge.  Despite several things still being quirky and glitchy… we’re mostly operational once again.  Thanks for your patience and understanding.

In terms of our Saturday afternoon around the Hudson Valley, we’ve finally got sunshine back in the picture, which is a welcome sight.  Our winds are out of the north, which has brought a seasonable chill back into the valley, after many days of above average temperatures over the past week or two.  The first 13 days of November have been a blowtorch across the eastern half of the country.

We discussed in late October, that this massive ridge over the eastern US would result in very mild temperatures, and so this map is not the least bit surprising.  After our first wet snow flakes of the season just before Halloween… any sign of winter has been wiped off the map.  We’ll have to see if that changes for the 2nd half of November, as the jet stream finally begins to shift around a little, which should give us some chances at colder air.

Our next shot of rain comes on Sunday afternoon, as an approaching cold front brings with it, the chance of rain showers.  A sharp squall line of heavy down pours and gusty winds seem possible toward evening on Sunday, with the passage of the cold front.  We’ll have to keep an eye on that as it approaches.

Futurecast Radar : 12pm to 11pm Sunday

You can see on the futurecast, that this squall line looks very potent.  Thunder and lightning, strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts and heavy downpours are possible… the timing looks to be 5pm to 8pm… but we will continue to monitor as we head into Sunday.

For now… try and enjoy some great late fall weather!  Happy Saturday, Hudson Valley!

Friday Discussion : Fabulous Fall Pattern

Last weekend we had our first snowflakes of the season around the Hudson Valley.  Some areas had a wet snow accumulation just 7 days ago, and the weekend temperatures were quite a bit below average.  This weekend, will be just about the polar opposite of that.

A large east coast high pressure will allow for very mild air to push into the valley.  The projected temperatures above give you an idea of what we expect to be on our plate for this weekend.  Both Saturday and Sunday look very similar.  As long as the WSW flow persists, the above average temperatures will also persist.  For now, the warmth appears likely to last through at least early to mid week next week… but could hold on a bit longer.  Along with the warmth, will come lots of sunshine and blue skies.

Not much else to say in a pattern like this, other than ‘get out there and enjoy it!’.  We know we will.  Have a great weekend!

Monday Discussion : Howling Winds and Wintry Chill

After a taste of winter on Friday, we’re going to have another preview on Monday around the Hudson Valley.  Late on Sunday, a cold front with rain showers pushed through the region, in the wake, are howling NW winds.  Those NW winds are pushing much colder air back into the region for our Monday.

NW winds will blow at 10 to 20mph, gusting over 30mph at times.  These cold winds will rush over the Great Lakes, and generate lake effect snow showers and flurries across parts of the region on Monday morning.  Especially in the Catskills, where an accumulating coating to an inch or two can’t be ruled on on Monday.  In the valley… it’s more likely that we just see some flurries or a brief snow squall with little to no accumulation.

But the other big story of the winds… will be the wind chills.  Highs on Tuesday may be close to 40°, but it will never feel that warm.

Strong winds out of the northwest will make it feel like the 20s for most locations, and possibly even the teens for our higher elevations.  Some potent chill for the beginning of November.  Make sure you bundle up properly on Monday, because the chill will definitely be felt around the valley.  Tuesday will have a similar chill, with a chance of early morning snow showers… before the sun returns for Tuesday afternoon, and temps again in the 40s.  But again, because of the winds… wind chills will be in the 30s all day on Tuesday as well.

The next few days….

As we move through the week, we’ll see things begin to change.  Temps will moderate, as winds turn out of the southwest on Wednesday.  Southwest winds will pull highs on Wednesday back into the 50s, which will feel much milder, after the wintry winds of Monday and Tuesday morning.  The SW winds will continue through the 2nd half of the week, making for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s before the end of the work week… something to look forward to.

We hope everyone has a great start to the week.

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