forecasts

Wednesday Discussion: Humid and Stormy

Another round of heavy rain progressing through the region, persistent cloud cover means we lack the instability for any of these to currently be severe. 

Put the threat of storms, some strong to severe will persist through the day. If we see afternoon sun, the chance of these storms being severe will increase, otherwise expect rounds of passing heavy downpours. This slow moving cold front will eventually clear the region by tomorrow, winds will shift out of the NW and the cool down will begin.

Monday Discussion : Heat, Humidity & Late Day Storms

Sunday was hot… but particularly humid, with dewpoints in the low 70s.  Then the line of thunderstorms brought widespread soaking rain and temporary relief in the form of cooler temperatures.  But we’ll do it all again on Monday, as the heat and humidity will build back into the region.

A heat advisory is in effect, for temps near 90°, but more importantly for the dew points in the low to mid 70s.  That will generate real feel heat index values in the mid 90s around the Hudson Valley.  It’s going to be uncomfortable to say the least, so make sure to take frequent breaks from strenuous outdoor activity on Monday.

In addition, late day T-Storms are also a concern.  Early guidance suggests a band of showers and storms focused on the lower half of the Hudson Valley, mainly after 2 or 3 pm.  However, if there’s anything the weather of the past several days has taught us… is that the computer guidance struggles greatly with the details of these shower and thunderstorm threats that materialize in the afternoon.  Since we’re not able to pinpoint the timing and location in advance, it’s best to keep an eye on the radar, or our Facebook page, where we’ll try to post updates as the situation begins to materialize on Monday.

Stay cool, and have a great Monday!

Summery Sunday

A summery Sunday for the Hudson Valley, as we see heat and humidity build over the region.  Our flow out of the SW will cause humidity to swell, with dew points in the low to mid 70s.  Afternoon highs will approach 90 degrees… feeling like the low to mid 90s when we factor in the humidity.

Like Saturday, we will have to keep an eye on the sky for scattered showers and T-Storms.  Guidance suggests a broken band of storms may form over the region between 4pm and 9pm (HV circles). 

So anyone with outdoor activities will want to take this into consideration

Friday Discussion : Heat Looming for Next Week

Clouds, breaks of sun… and of course, humidity. That’s the story for our Friday, Hudson Valley. Our flow out of the SE will keep the humidity in the air, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. We can’t rule out a shower or two, especially in the Catskills, as the air mass is rather humid.
 
The big story though, is the looming heat wave heading for the Hudson Valley beginning on Sunday. The upper level disturbance in Canada that has been responsible for our unsettled weather this week will exit, and that will allow the Bermuda High to dominate… establishing a large ridge of high pressure over the US. This will result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for much of the region beginning Sunday, and lasting into Tuesday or Wednesday.
The humidity will be a factor as well… so real feel temperatures between 95° and 100° are a possibility by Monday and Tuesday. We’ll update on the details as we get closer, as we try to pin down the intensity of the heat for our area early next week.
 
We hope everyone has a safe and happy start to their weekend! Thank you for all your continued support of HVW, even during what is traditionally our “slow” season.

Wednesday Discussion : Unsettled Humidity

The next few days will feature a rather unsettled weather pattern for the Hudson Valley.  That will translate into warm and humid air mass, with each day featuring a mix of clouds and sunshine… but also a persistent threat of a scattered shower, or afternoon thunderstorms.  This threat will extend from today… straight on into Friday or Saturday.  So don’t expect big changes in the weather pattern right away.

A weak upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes will allow for a couple waves of energy to rotate through the eastern US over the next few days.  Simultaneously, we’ve got a Bermuda high battling for position, which is keeping a rather humid air mass locked in over the region.  We won’t begin to see a change… until the upper level disturbance in the Great Lakes backs off… and allows heat and humidity to move back into the Hudson Valley.  That likely happens on the back half of the weekend.  Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Unsettled Showers

The good news, is that any concern for strong to severe thunderstorms has gone out the window for today. The ‘bad’ news if you have plans, is that the low clouds and scattered rain showers will be the story of the day.
 
We’re seeing scattered showers become more numerous on the radar at this hour, and this should be the trend for today. Expect lots of clouds, with on and off spotty light rain showers through much of the day. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out this afternoon, but nothing intense is expected. The clouds and spotty showers will hold down temperatures a bit, expect highs mainly in the mid 70s around the region… but if a few areas see a period of sunshine today, the temperature could climb toward 80°.
 
The threat of spotty showers will be with us into tonight as well, potentially seeing some clearing skies Wednesday morning. So if you have plans in the next 24 hours, expect the chance of rain… but we aren’t expecting a washout… just cloudy skies, and some on and off light to at times moderate rain showers. Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion: Fine Start to the Work Week

A fine start to the work week for the Hudson Valley. Sunshine will mix with fair weather clouds, and provide a fine summer day. Humidity levels will still be comfortable, making afternoon highs between 80° and 85°, feel quite comfortable.
 
The issues begin to arrive overnight, as a disturbance from the northwest approaches. A frontal boundary will cause increasing clouds, and spotty showers to reach parts of the valley by morning on Tuesday. Scattered showers will become increasingly likely through the day, with thunderstorms possible during the mid to late afternoon hours.
 
The further south you go… the better the chance for storms, and even the threat of a strong to severe T-Storm on Tuesday. The National Weather Service has areas south of I-84 in a marginal risk (less than 5% chance) of severe weather on Tuesday. We’re not anticipating severe weather in the Hudson Valley, largely due to the expectation of low clouds and scattered rain showers. This should help stabilize the atmosphere in our area… enough to prevent severe weather anyway. We could certainly still see a T-Storm or two, mixing in with the scattered showers.
 
There are still some details to work through, but Tuesday’s weather looks rather unsettled for sure. Anyone with outdoor plans, will want to check back for more info as we get closer.
 
Have a great Monday!

Glamorous August Weekend

This time of year, it’s possible to have an oppressively hot and humid.  But the Hudson Valley this weekend, will see beautiful weather for early August. Sunshine will mix with clouds, and a northwest flow will translate into low humidity levels, and comfortable temps.  Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 are expected…  which is a couple degrees below average.

So we hope everyone with outdoor plans this weekend will be happy with the weather’s cooperation.  Everyone have a great weekend!

Tuesday: Sunshine w/ Spotty PM Storms

A rather nice start to the day around the Hudson Valley, with temps in the 60s and 70s… and comfortable humidity levels.  As the afternoon progresses, we will see some rising humidity levels, and a few isolated mid to late afternoon T-Storms may pop up.

Futurecast 12pm Tuesday – 12am Wednesday

This futurecast NY state radar shows showers and storms blossoming just after mid day across the Hudson Valley.  Likely focused in the Catskills early, they do appear likely to affect all parts of the region before midnight.  While this radar looks ominous, the storm cells are actually rather sporadic, and not impacting too much of the region.  This can be seen better in the total precipitation map:

Total Projected Rainfall – Tuesday

Notice the Hudson Valley doesn’t have a lot of rainfall, except for the Catskills.  Poughkeepsie projecting 0.01″ of rain, Monticello 0.05″… so it’s going to be hit or miss storms.  Where a storm hits, you could get a quick inch of rain.  But for most locations, you may hear some rumbling thunder in the distance… or some dark clouds over the horizon… but you end up staying dry.  Either way, keep an eye to the sky later today.

Saturday Afternoon T-Storm Threat

The air is thick already around the Hudson Valley, as we approach mid day.  Temps in the low 80s, with dew points around 70, are making for a rather sticky summer afternoon.
 
With many having outdoor afternoon plans, and the forecast calling for scattered T-Storms, many are asking for specific details on how the afternoon will unfold, so we’ll try to clarify a bit.
Futurecast Radar : 12pm – 8pm
Above is the futurecast radar from 12pm to 8pm today.  There are 2 key things to point out.  First, this is a mathematical simulation… and second, it’s a futurecast for pop up T-Storms.  We point this out, because as much as we may want to know specifically “when and where” the storms may appear… technology just isn’t there yet.  With an organized storm system (like we may see in the winter), or even with a strong cold front that triggers a line of severe T-Storms.  In those cases, we have a defined weather feature that drive the weather.  In those cases, we can get more specific and detailed with higher degrees of confidence, because we can project the speed and path of the cold front, or low pressure system. 
 
In a case like today, the general instability of the atmosphere… the heat, humidity and high dew points are interacting with a weak frontal boundary to our north, to touch off pop up showers and T-Storms.  So the location and timing of the storms will be virtually impossible to determine with confidence.  So everyone needs to keep an eye to the sky for a possible 30 minute rain delay this afternoon.  But here are a few points we can make with some confidence…
– Chance of T-Storms increases as you go further north
– Storms NOT expected to be severe
…. strong wind gusts & small hail a minor concern
…. heavy downpours & frequent lightning possible
…. severe storm can’t be ruled out (less than 5% chance)
 
The chance or showers and storms will last into the night time hours, as the cold front slowly sinks southward.  But as the atmosphere stabilizes after dark, the threat will gradually diminish.  Leaving us with a dryer and more stable air mass for Sunday… featuring lots of sunshine, blue skies, and highs in the low 80s.