Saturday is our final beautiful weather day… before some major changes swing into the Hudson Valley.
The jet stream shows the strong upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes. This is a feature more typical of the winter season, not the middle of summer. With a strong upper level high pressure north of New England (indicated by the orange colors), the upper level low pressure will stall out over the Great Lakes, and that will translate into multiple days of unsettled weather for the Hudson Valley area.
The stormy weather begins Saturday night, as a coastal storm will develop near the Virginia coast on Saturday. Because the jet stream buckles so far inland, the coastal storm will be forced inland… into Pennsylvania.
Notice on this simulation, how far west the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms are. The Hudson Valley will see rain for sure… but earlier in the week there was discussion about 2 or 3 inches of rain for our area. That now appears likely to occur in central PA, not the Hudson Valley. Here’s a simulated radar for the overnight, and you can see this play out.
Futurecast Radar : 11am Saturday – 5am Sunday
The rain stays mainly to the SW of the Hudson Valley until well after sunset on Saturday. A few showers push into the Hudson Valley before midnight, but the heavy showers and thundershowers appear likely to hold off until near or after midnight. The showers and thunderstorms will continue to be scattered around the region through sunrise on Sunday as well… keeping us unsettled for much of the day. Total rainfall amounts by midnight Sunday night, look to range between 0.5 and 1.5 inches across our area…
So while we are likely to get a good bit of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours… the very heavy, potentially flooding rains, should remain out of our area. Regardless, we’ll continue to monitor the situation.
In addition to the rain potential, we have some concerns about strong winds… and some potentially damaging gusts (especially in the higher elevations)
With the center of low pressure moving so far inland, we’ll see some very strong winds moving well inland as well. Sustained winds Saturday night will be 10 to 20mph, with gusts over 30mph at times. Indications are that as you go higher in elevation, gusts could be as high as 50mph. We’ll have to keep our eye on the threat of damaging wind gusts… as the combination of soaking rain and strong winds could result in some down trees, and maybe a few power outages. We don’t think this is a widespread event in terms of power outages… but something to certainly be aware of.
So a busy next 48 hours for us at Hudson Valley Weather. We’ll keep you informed with updates as we get into the storm tonight, and into Sunday morning. It does appear that the steady rain tapers off during the morning on Sunday. That should leave us with mostly cloudy skies, warm and humid conditions. That in turn… will lead to an elevated threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A scenario that will repeat over and over through the week… from Sunday, straight through Thursday or Friday.
Check back for updates as we get closer. Thank you for continuing to support HVW.