forecasts

 

This is likely where we’ll start our Sunday morning around the Hudson Valley.  Patchy areas of frost are possible, depending on where you’re located, and the wind direction where you are.  A sure sign that autumn is not far away.  That seems fitting since Fall officially arrives on Tuesday.  We had a cold night Friday night, and again on Saturday night.  We expect another cold night Sunday night and Monday night, before temps begin to moderate once again.

We expect mostly sunny skies for the next several days.  In fact, no real chance of rain through at least Thursday or Friday.  We remain a bit dry for this point in the year, but nothing too terrible in terms of drought concerns.

By mid to late week, we expect highs to climb back into the low and mid 70s.  By late week, we may even be pushing 80° once again.  But as a whole, our weather looks quite tranquil locally.  Hopefully everyone is having a great weekend!

After a beautiful weekend around the Hudson Valley, we’ll see tranquil conditions continue for the next several days.  Northwest winds will set up for Monday and Tuesday, making it feel like early fall around the region.  Highs in the low 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.  By Wednesday and Thursday, the winds will shift back out the southwest, and that will give us warmer temperatures.  Highs in the upper 70s to near 80°, and lows in the 50s to near 60°.  The next chance for rain comes on Friday, as the remnants of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane Sally), get caught along a cold front that could sweep through our area.

Not much in the way of rainfall the next 5 days.

The above rainfall projection is from the European ensembles, between Monday and Friday.  In short… not much.  As we mentioned at the top, the rainfall we see here, is from Friday, and the guidance is split on the track of Friday’s rainfall threat.  But the odds are good that the focus of the rainfall stays south of us, near Washington DC and Baltimore.  Drought concerns continue in the community, as we hear many claims that urgent rainfall is needed.  While we surely could use some more rain, it’s dry… but not abnormally dry in New York State.

We’ll have to watch and see if this worsens due to the dry conditions of the coming week.  But in short… a rather nice week of weather for the region, with our next shot at rainfall coming on Friday.

Tropical Storm Sally Targets New Orleans

The tropics have really gotten active over the last week or two.  This map shows us all the active storms, as well as the areas of high risk of tropical development.

Hurricane Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene are no risk to the US mainland.  Hurricane Paulette however could bring damaging winds to Bermuda, as it heads northeastward out to sea.  That could be very bad news for our friends in Bermuda.  Rene is falling apart, and Tropical Storm Sally is heading toward the southeast coast.  But you’ll also notice 2 low chance areas for development, 1 high chance for development off the coast of Africa, and a Tropical Depression that will push westward.  A total of 7 disturbances or storms in the Atlantic basin right now.  But we’re going to focus on Tropical Storm Sally, because it has the potential to cause significant damage in the New Orleans area.

Tropical Storm Sally is a 60mph storm as of 11pm Sunday night.  You can see the closeup track projection takes it just east of New Orleans as a category 1 storm.  The further east this storm tracks… the better the scenario for much of Louisiana.  Due to the curvature of eastern Louisiana, when the counter clockwise winds of a tropical storm wrap around out of the east… storm surge over 9 to 12 feet can’t be ruled out.  We will continue to hope for a storm the pushes further and further east, away from the most densely populated areas.

To understand the potential impact of the storm in the southeast, lets look at the projected sustained winds and rainfall totals.

Projected Sustained Winds

Projected Rainfall Totals

Look at the dramatic cut off of rainfall amounts with Hurricane Sallie.  The storm is not evenly weighted, meaning the heaviest rainfall and wind is currently east of the center of circulation.  This simulation has roughly 0.75″ of rain in New Orleans… but if we go 50 to 100 miles east of New Orleans, rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches is possible.

As a result, the track is critical for flooding concerns, because the same areas where the heaviest rainfall is found, are where the best chance for a deadly storm surge over 9 feet is possible.  We will do our best to monitor the situation as it get s closer.  For now, our weather locally is quiet… thoughts go out to our friends in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Have a great start to your week.

A gorgeous start to the work week, with a crisp fall feel to close out the month of August.  The month as a total was a couple degrees above average in the northeast

US August Temperatures Compared to Average

Tuesday & Wednesday

The next two days will see the eastern US along a boundary between much cooler air in the central US, and a ridge off high pressure off the eastern US coast.  So when we look at the futurecast radar & satellite, you can see a lot of low clouds and patchy areas of showers and drizzle over NY and the northeast.

Futurecast Radar 8am Tuesday – 8pm Wednesday

This appears likely to keep temperatures in the 70s for the most part during the afternoon, and a fair amount of cloudiness.  A sprinkle or rain shower or two… can’t be ruled out as well.  We don’t anticipate any severe weather in the next two days, due to the low clouds and stabilizing atmospheric forces.  Mostly cloudy, and a sprinkle or two… will be the story for the next day or two.

Longer Range

If we look at the projected temperatures compared to average over the following week… you can see this pattern of cooler air in the central US is likely to hold on.  But the western Atlantic ridge will keep our area on the border between air masses.  That should mean some cold snaps… followed by warmer air… as the air masses battle for positioning.  In short… no sustained heat, nor sustained cool air.  In reality, pretty typical of early September

Projected Temperatures Week 2 (September 8th – 14th)

SPC has placed the region under a slight risk for severe weather today, a look at short range models suggests a morning round of rain moving through currently, followed by scattered showers and storms and eventually an organized line of storms this afternoon and evening all though the models have a different take on how the day plays out.

Futurecast Radar:  7pm

Just how much instability can build given periods of scattered showers and cloud cover is to be determined.
Either way, not great Saturday weather, if you try to salvage as much of it as possible between the weather, just keep and eye to the sky, or our Facebook and be prepared for the possibility.

After a very stormy Thursday afternoon, things should quiet down dramatically for Friday.  But before we look forward, we need to look back at Thursday.

We saw widespread reports of damage from severe weather.  But that was to be expected because with an enhanced severe weather threat.  The conditions were in place to allow multiple severe weather cells to push through the Hudson Valley.  We also have an unofficial report of a tornado in Montgomery.  We say ‘unofficial’, but the tornado video shared by viewer Darin Hinman from Hamptonburgh, is quite conclusive.  We’re still compiling information, but it looked every bit like a tornado was possible on radar, and our live updates hinted as much, despite the storm never generating a tornado warning.  That’s why these situations are always very dynamic, and need to be treated seriously, even if a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning has not been issued.

But as we look forward… Friday looks much quieter, and we could use a quiet day.  Sunshine will mix with clouds, and highs are expected to be in the mid 80s.  Unfortunately, the quiet weather is going to be short lived.  The remnants of Hurricane Laura are being pulled into a frontal trough that will stretch up through the Great Lakes by Friday night and Saturday.  That will lead to a very unsettled late night Friday night, into Saturday.

Futurecast Radar : 8pm Friday – 2am Sunday

As you can see it looks like a bout of showers and thunderstorms after midnight Friday night… then scattered showers Saturday morning… and possible T-Storms in the afternoon.  Much of the southern portion of the moisture appearing in the futurecast, is the remnants of Laura.  Which you can then see extending northward along the frontal boundary.  So a rather unsettled start to the weekend.

The payoff comes on Sunday, as we begin to clear out… and cooler, drier air pushes in.  That will bring us a beautiful 2nd half of the weekend.  Something for us to look forward to.  Have a great Friday everyone!

Hurricane Laura is approaching landfall in western Louisiana as of this post… and by the time most of you are reading this, Louisiana will have suffered its strongest hurricane landfall on record.  Hurricane Laura is currently a strong Cat 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150mph.  Our thoughts and prayers will be with the residents of Louisiana and eastern Texas in the coming days, as the images of devastation will surely be horrifying.

Unfortunately, we’ve got our own problems to worry about on Thursday.  A warm front will push through in the morning on Thursday with scattered showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder.  That will give way to sunshine and clouds… and temps in the mid 80s for the afternoon.  We’ll have strong SW winds at the surface, and strong NW winds aloft.  So as a cold front begins dropping south during the afternoon, the stage will be set for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Chance of damaging wind gusts: 30% to 45%
Chance of large hail: 15% to 30%
Chance of Tornado: 5% to 10%

An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in the Hudson Valley signifies a rather widespread event, with a few intense storms possible.  The percent chance may seem low compared to the tone of this conversation, but the way we calculate that threat is like this…
Let’s say you’re in Poughkeepsie.  If you draw a circle around you that extends 30 miles outward from your location…

The chance that a report of damaging wind gusts occur somewhere within that circle, is between 30% and 45%… 15% to 30% that large hail occurs… and 5% to 10% that a tornado occurs within that circle.  Those are high odds of those events occurring on any given day.  So this is an event that should be taken very seriously.

Timing the Event
The timing on this event can be seen in the futurecast radar shown below

Shower & Thunderstorm threat:  12pm to 10pm
Severe Thunderstorm threat:  2pm to 8pm
Highest Risk Period: 3pm to 7pm

You can see that the line of thunderstorms develops along the frontal boundary near Albany around mid day… and then begins to dip southward into the Hudson Valley between 2pm and 6pm, redeveloping a bit, and slowly tracking southward.  The threat of the severe thunderstorms could be with us for several hours, as the front does not push through very quickly at all.  That may allow for long duration thunderstorms, or some areas to be hit by multiple storms.

The further north you live… the earlier the threat reaches you.  So areas like Hudson, Kingston, Saugerties… the threat is on your doorstep by 2pm, and could last several hours.  Areas like Poughkeepsie and Newburgh, you might not see the storms approach until after 4pm… and closer to 6pm for places like Warwick or Monroe.  We’ll have to adjust the timing as we get closer.

Again the major threat is potentially damaging wind gusts.  But hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.  The atmospheric shear will be quite high, and this could lend to areas of strong rotation, which could result in a tornado.  Everyone should be alert during the afternoon hours, as this has the ability to be a very busy afternoon.

We’ll try to have more updates as we go through the day on Thursday.