Weekend Update : Annoying Uncle Nestor

Weekend Update – Annoying Uncle Nestor

Much like that annoying uncle that shows up to a party unexpectedly and ruins everyone’s day ?… tropical storm Nestor has the potential to unexpectedly ruin our Sunday afternoon plans.  ‘Uncle’ Nestor hasn’t confirmed that he’s coming, but it’s looking like the chances are increasing.

Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and has been trending further north with its track.  Our official forecast at the moment is similar to what the National Hurricane Center is showing.  It keeps rain showers associated with Nestor just to our south on Sunday afternoon.  But as you see from the second image below, the futurecast image for 1pm on Sunday has rain showers making their way into the Mid Hudson Valley. 

So the potential exists for the afternoon hours on Sunday to be damp.  The reason is that Nestor has become slightly stronger than projected, which will allow it push a bit further NW than originally expected.  That said, the northern branch of the jet stream should help suppress the storm to ur south, and on out to sea.  However… it’s a dynamic situation, and we’ll have to keep our eyes on it.

We will continue to monitor things through today and into tonight.  But if you have plans for Sunday afternoon, you may want to have the increasing threat of Uncle Nestor making a surprise visit in the back of your mind.   

Thursday Discussion : Mid Day Radar

Our blustery Thursday continues around the Hudson Valley. 
NY State Radar Loop 9am – 12pm (HV in lower right quadrant of image)
The latest radar loop from 9am to 12pm shows the rainfall on the back edge of the nor’easter rotating southward back into portions of the Hudson Valley (located in the lower right quadrant of this image).  While much of the valley remains dry, we’re seeing elevation enhance the rain showers in the northern HV, Catskills and the higher elevations east of the Hudson Valley.  Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon… primarily in the Catskills, and areas north of I-84.  But don’t be surprised to see rain showers in eastern Dutchess, Putnam, and Westchester counties as the strong NW winds create an upslope enhancement.
 
In terms of the wind… expect little relief from the strong wind gusts.  The strongest winds will be the further south you go, as well as in the Catskills.  Sustained winds 10 to 20mph, with gusts over 35mph out of the west/northwest.  Make sure any loose objects are secure… although if they aren’t, they’re likely gone by now.
 
Conditions will slowly improve as we approach evening.  The winds will ease up a bit near sunset… but gusts over 25mph are possible through midnight.  So the blustery conditions will lessen, but not diminish entirely.  Temps will hold in the upper 40s to low 50s in general, through this afternoon and into tonight.
 
Have a nice afternoon!

Wednesday Discussion : Dark and Stormy Night

It may still be mid October… but a very winter like system will take aim on the Hudson Valley Wednesday afternoon and night… before slowly exiting on Thursday.

Timing the storm:
– Clouds increase Wednesday morning
– 1pm to 4pm : Scattered showers develop & winds increase
– 4pm to 8pm : Steady soaking, wind swept rain develops
– 8pm to 6am : Peak of the Nor’easter… heavy rain and wind.  NE wind shifts NW overnight and gusts over 30mph
– 6am to 12pm : Rain becomes scattered showers from south to north.  Continued windy, gusts over 30mph

Impacts:
– Heavy rainfall… 1 to 3 inches likely, locally over 4″ possible in the Catskills
– Strong winds… NE wind 5 to 15mph gusts over 20mph, shifts NW and strengthens 10 to 20mph gusts over 35mph
– Power outages possible … strong wind gusts could bring down tree limbs

Futurecast Radar: 11am Wed – 2pm Thu

The Hudson Valley is near the center of the futurecast radar above.  You’ll notice that during the afternoon on Wednesday the rain moves into the Hudson Valley.  The PM commute is looking increasingly wet, where a steady rain may be falling in most areas by 5pm.  Conditions will definitely deteriorate the closer we get to the evening on Wednesday.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are likely.  You can see on the above simulation… that this system may feature a double barreled low pressure (that is one low well off shore, and a weaker low tracking into CT).  For those thinking that this would be a massive snowstorm in the winter… that inland tracking low would likely bring enough warm air in to change us over to rain… but it’s still fun to speculate if you’re a winter weather lover.

But the other big story will be the winds…

Futurecast Sustained Winds: 2pm Wed – 2pm Thu

This sustained wind loop shows you where the inland low pressure is expected to track (through Long Island and into CT).  You can see the streamlines show the direction of the wind around the low pressure rotating counter clockwise.  That’s why we’ll see the winds shift from NE to NW overnight and intensify off the Catskills.  With all the wet leaves on trees, and these strong winds, which will gust over 35mph at times, especially on Thursday, we could see some scattered power outages.  Something to be alert to.

We’ll continue to monitor the storm through the day on Wednesday, and into Wednesday night.

Tuesday Discussion : Nor’easter Looms for Wednesday

Today will be our last day to wrap up any outdoor projects, get those piles of leaves addressed, clear those storm drains, leaf peeps, get your pics now. etc etc.

Our first Bombogenesis of the season will occur Wed-Thur, a low pressure system off the Carolina coast will rapidly intensify as it heads NE towards to New England. The low pressure will drop from 1000MB on Wed AM to around 970MB just to our East on Thur AM.  This storm will track much closer than last weeks ocean storm, therefore our impacts will be much greater across the region, this storm will track into central Connecticut and Massachusetts, this will put our region into the bullseye for heavy rain and wind…

Timeline

  • Rain moves in from SW to NE between 5-10PM Wed Night
  • Winds begin to increase between 1-4PM Wed
  • Worst of the Nor Easter: 9pm Wednesday – 9am Thursday
  • Winds increasing to near peak on Thur AM
    • Wind Gusts- 40-60MPH
    • Sustained Winds-20-40MPH
  • Rainfall- 1-3″ (locally 4″+)

Potential Impacts

Localized flooding and power outages, keep in mind that ALOT of leaves will be stripped from the trees so keep a close eye on storm drains. Due to a dry fall, widespread flooding is not expected.

Storm will be slow mover, winds of this magnitude for 24 hours will likely cause potentially widespread power outages. Stay Tuned for more Updates.

Thursday Discussion : Better than Expected

When you have a coastal storm stalled and spinning off shore, you’re going to see some shaky forecasts turn out a  bit different than what was forecasted.  Thursday could be such a case, when clouds give way to lots of sunshine during the morning hours… turning a day that was expected to be cloudy with showers… into a warmer, rather nice day.

We’ll have to monitor the precise location of the spinning storm, as we do expect a wave of showers to rotate through the Hudson Valley late afternoon and early evening on Thursday.  These showers will be focused east of the Hudson River, but anyone could see some spotty showers.  The scattered showers then look likely to fall apart Friday night, leaving the region with just some mainly cloudy skies giving way to a few breaks in the clouds.

Make sure to keep the raincoat handy, because a spot shower or sprinkle can’t be ruled out.

Wednesday Discussion : Damp and Unsettled

Our coastal storm is lingering off shore, and we’re already feeling the effects in terms of the chilly air and cloud cover. Now we’re beginning to see the light rain and drizzle creep northwestward as the moisture rotates counter clockwise around the storm off shore.
Expect the afternoon to remain cloudy and cool, with temps in the 50s. A northeast breeze will increase, adding a raw nip to the air. Scattered areas of light rain and drizzle are possible, especially as you move east of the Hudson River, and even more so the further south you go. Viewers in Putnam and Westchester counties may see a steady light rain for several hours, while those in northern Sullivan or western Ulster may not see even a drop of rain. But the afternoon looks unsettled and damp for sure… so make sure you’re planning for the threat of rain.
 
These conditions will be with us the next day or two, so another reason to keep the coat and rain gear handy.

Tuesday Discussion : Coastal Storm Stirs up Trouble

A coastal storm is developing well off shore, and it will impact our weather for the next few days. Significant blocking offshore will prevent this system from escaping out to sea, so this storm is likely to stall out off the coast of Cape Cod for several days. Just how close to shore this storm gets… will determine how much rain we see in the Hudson Valley between Wednesday and Friday.
 
The current thinking, is that this storm stays just far enough east, to keep most of the significant moisture south and east of the Hudson Valley. Clouds will move in tonight, and spotty light showers are possible on Wednesday. The best chances to see rain showers will be in Putnam and Westchester counties, but Wednesday looks cloudy, cool and breezy for everyone… with highs holding in the 50s. Thursday looks very similar… before we should begin to see improving conditions toward the end of the week. If you have plans for Friday or Saturday, make sure you check back on the forecast, because the details in these kind of situations can change as new information comes in.

Weekend Outlook : Sunny Start… Soggy Sunday

A frosty start expected around the Hudson Valley on Saturday morning, with clear skies and calm winds allowing for morning lows to dip all the way down into the mid 30s for most areas.  Hopefully any sensitive vegetation makes it through the morning just fine.  Sunshine and blue skies will be the weather story on Saturday, with highs climbing back up to right around 60°.  A true taste of fall for the region to start the weekend.

But conditions have been rather dry for much of the last 2 months.  We saw some steady light rain on Thursday, which helped put a bit of a dent into the dry conditions.  Good news, is we’ve got more rain on the way, to help squash any ideas about a drought in the Hudson Valley.  Clouds and drizzle will increase Saturday night and be with us through Sunday.  Patchy showers and drizzle will be common through Sunday into Sunday night.  It will be milder, with temps in the mid and upper 60s, but it will be damp and unsettled Sunday.  Something for anyone with outdoor plans Sunday afternoon to keep in mind.

Futurecast Radar: Sunday 12am – Monday 8am

The rain showers will likely be scattered and light, but it will certainly be damp and unsettled around the region on Sunday.  Those conditions will linger into Monday, with periods of steadier and heavier rain likely Monday and Monday night.  We’ll keep tabs on the conditions as we go through the weekend.

First Frost of the Season Possible Tonight

Strong NW winds on Friday have ushered in a cool autumn air mass, and the stage is set for our first widespread frost tonight and potentially even a hard freeze in some areas.
Winds will die down night, and under clear skies… temperatures in the upper 50s late Friday afternoon will quickly tumble through the 40s, and into the upper 30s after midnight. Data suggests widespread overnight lows between 32° and 37°. This will lead to frost developing, especially north of I-84. As you head into the traditionally colder spots, and the Catskills… low temperatures could briefly dip below freezing before dawn on Saturday. In those areas, a hard… season ending freeze is possible.
 
Accordingly, Frost advisories and Freeze warnings are in effect overnight. Freeze warnings are confined to Sullivan, Delaware, Western Ulster and Western Greene counties…. with the remainder of the region under frost advisories (Rockland & Westchester counties excluded). If you have sensitive plants, you may want to take precautions, as they could be damaged by tonight’s conditions.
 
A sign of the changing seasons. Have a nice evening!

Thursday Discussion: Raw Rude Awakening

A dramatic turn of weather events today, as we transition from Wednesday’s record high of 88 degrees in Poughkeepsie… to waking up with scattered showers and temps in the upper 40s.  In fact, that’s where the temps will hold most of the day today, thanks to a NE wind helping to funnel down cool, Canadian air.  Temps likely will hold in the upper 40s to low 50s… only rising slightly after sunset, and then only into the mid and upper 50s.  

The rain showers will be with us most of the day as well.  The morning radar shows a band of light scattered rain showers moving west to east, and expected to linger over the Hudson Valley for much of the daytime hours.  In just 24 hours, we go from August to November, just like that.  Make sure to grab the rain gear, and a coat to keep the chill away.  It’s going to be a raw one.  Have a great Thursday!