Friday Discussion : Sunshine, Blustery, Cold

After a very active, very snowy February… that featured a very active storm track… our current pattern to start the month of March is quite quiet.  The next several days will be rather quiet in general… with a good deal of sunshine and a cold and blustery wind.

Friday begins with lots of sunshine and cold, with afternoon highs into the low 30s.  Friday night we’ll watch a cold front dip south from Canada, and possibly spread some extra clouds and even a few lake effect snow showers.  Then on Saturday it’s likely we see more clouds than sun as winds gust out of the northwest.  Lake effect snow showers and flurries likely impact the Catskills for much of the day, and some of those will filter down into the valley, but they will be few and far between.  Highs on Saturday also are expected in the upper 20s to low 30s.  By Sunday the winds shift just a bit, and mostly sunny skies return to the region.  The sun won’t do much for temps, as we expect highs once again in the low 30s.

So a very cold weekend expected across the region… but the start of next week should see some considerable moderation.  A milder air mass returns to the Hudson Valley, and we should see some of the warmest temperatures we’ve seen in a month or two… maybe more.  Monday highs should climb into the low and mid 40s… but by Tuesday those highs jump into the 50s… and by Wednesday or Thursday, temperatures could reach near 60°.  Let that sink in for a minute… as some early spring weather could be on the way to the region!  We’ll keep our eye on this, but old man winter’s grip on the Hudson Valley may finally be loosening just a bit.  With that said… it does appear that by mid month, some colder air, and a few chances at snow may return to the region…. so we’re not out of the woods just yet.

We’ll be sure to keep you posted.

Wednesday Discussion : Quieter and Milder

The sound of the wind still howls in the minds of Hudson Valley residents, having dealt with the strong and locally damaging wind gusts on Monday night and Tuesday.  A good number of residents lost power for a period of time, thanks to wind gusts between 35 and 50mph.  The strongest wind gust reported to the National Weather Service was Kinderhook in Columbia county… with a gust of 42mph.

For our Wednesday, we expect lots of sunshine and blue skies.  Winds will shift out of the west and possibly even southwest for a time, pulling milder air back into the Hudson Valley.  For one day at least, a taste of spring across the valley, as the lower elevations will push 50° for an afternoon high.  The Catskills will be a few degrees cooler, but still into the low and mid 40s on Wednesday.  This mild air will quickly depart the region Wednesday night and Thursday, as winds shift out of the NW once more.  Cold air will rush back into the region as a strong NW wind returns on Thursday.  These winds won’t be nearly as strong as what we saw on Monday night, but still will pack a bit of a chilly bite to the air… with wind chills into the teens Wednesday night into Thursday.

The cold air will then be with us through the weekend, as a deep trough digs in to the eastern US.  During the weekend, it looks like the temps will remain below average, but we don’t currently see any threat of snow.  The cold trough likely will suppress any storm threat well to our south, but we’ll continue to monitor the situation for this coming weekend.

Have a great Wednesday!

Tuesday Discussion : Bitter Winds

A cold front pushing south through the Hudson Valley is associated with a rapidly intensifying storm in the Atlantic that will head toward Canada.  The strong pressure gradient behind the storm is resulting in powerful NW winds Monday night and into Tuesday.  A Wind Advisory is in effect through 4pm Tuesday afternoon.

Winds Monday night into Tuesday morning will howl at 15 to 25mph, with gusts between 40mph and 55mph possible.

Futurecast Winds : 7pm Monday – 1pm Tuesday

On this model, the gusts intensify near sunset, and don’t ease up until around mid day on Tuesday.  During that time, winds will gust at 35mph to 50mph in the valley, and between 40mph and 55mph in the Catskills.  Sporadic power outages are certainly possible due to down trees and powerlines.  Anytime you have winds like this, you have to be prepared to lose power.

Adding another dimension to this system, is that the northwest winds will be ushering in bitter cold air.  Overnight temperatures will tumble through the 20s, and into the low and mid teens by sunrise on Tuesday.  When you have temps around 10° and winds gusting over 35mph… that sets the stage for some very ugly wind chills.

These are your wake up ‘real feel’ wind chills on Tuesday.  With morning lows in the low teens… real feel wind chills should be near or below zero for the entire Hudson Valley.  Make sure you bundle up extra warm for your Tuesday morning.  Conditions should gradually improve through the day, with winds slowly subsiding and gusts only in the 20 to 30mph range by afternoon.  Highs on Tuesday won’t get to 30° in the afternoon, so wind chills in the teens and low 20s will be with us through the entire day.  So while conditions will improve… by no means will Tuesday be ‘nice’ in the afternoon.

Bundle up, and have a great day!

Sunday Discussion : Afternoon and Evening Showers

A slushy start to our Saturday, turned into a foggy and rainy mid day… and some breaks of sunshine by late afternoon.

As we look to Sunday, the clouds will hold in place out ahead of the next wave of energy coming our way.  A period of scattered rain showers is likely from mid and late afternoon… continuing into the evening and overnight hours.

Futurecast Radar : 10am to 10pm Sunday

The first wave of rain showers reaches the Hudson Valley around mid day.  The showers will be heaviest from I-84 on south… but everyone should see some shower activity.  Then the steady rain showers taper off around sunset… but scattered light showers will linger through the evening.  From there, the threat for scattered rain showers will persist through the overnight.  Temps will be in the low to mid 40s Sunday afternoon… falling back into the upper 30s with the rain showers in the afternoon.  Then a chilly and raw feel to the air Sunday night with the spotty showers… and temps in the mid to upper 30s.

Then on Monday morning, the cold front pushes through, and we’ll see some very blustery conditions push into the Hudson Valley by Monday afternoon… and continuing into Monday night.

Futurecast Wind Gusts : 12pm Monday – 12am Tuesday

By Monday afternoon, gusts in the 20s to low 30mph range are expected… but the winds really increase Monday night.  Gusts are projected 30 to 45mph on this guidance.  If this is correct, a bitterly blustery Monday night will be on tap… and wind chills near 0°.  In addition, a few power outages can’t be ruled out with these winds.  Not widespread outages… but a few sporadic down trees and powerlines could cause some problems.  We’ll take a closer look on Sunday night.

Have a great Sunday!

Friday Discussion : MORE SNOW TONIGHT!! … Changing to Rain

After a sunny Friday afternoon, we’ll see temps tumble Friday night into the mid 20s out ahead of an approaching storm system.  Clouds will increase before midnight, and it looks likely that snow once again develops across the Hudson Valley after midnight.

Futurecast Radar : 12am to 12pm Saturday

Wet snow will develop between 1am and 4am from SW to NE.  But this time… the warm air will win by Saturday morning.  Temps will rise above freezing at all levels of the atmosphere, and we’ll watch that wet snow change to rain by early to mid morning on Saturday.  Temps will climb from the upper 20s around midnight… to near 40° by mid day Saturday.  Those left over rain showers will taper off in the afternoon… as afternoon highs climb into the mid 40s.  However… before the mild air arrives, we could see some slushy accumulations around the region before sunrise on Saturday.

We don’t expect anything more than a slushy coating to an inch in spots… an mostly on unpaved surfaces.  The Catskills and elevations over 1000 feet could see up to an inch or two, and some slick roadways are possible in those locations before dawn.  So just be alert when heading out early on Saturday morning.  Although any slick spots will improve rapidly after sunrise.

Clouds will linger most of Saturday night and into Sunday, as another system approaches from the southwest.  Temps are expected to be in the upper 30s to around 40°… but there is no mid level cold air by this point, so some chilly light rain showers are expected Sunday afternoon and evening.

So all in all, a rather unsettled weekend on tap for the Hudson Valley.  No major storm systems, but 2 disturbances with scattered rain showers will keep us rather gray and damp this weekend.  As always, full details can be found on the HVW Detailed 5 Day Forecast or on the main page.  We hope your weekend gets off to a great start!

Thursday Discussion : Blustery and Cooler

After a beautiful Wednesday, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s around the region… a cold front will push through early, and shift our wind out of the northwest.  That means a much chillier day on Thursday.

A fairly seasonal day on Thursday, with temps close to where we would expect for this time of year.  Friday looks very similar, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40° once more.  Then a weak system advances northeastward Friday night into Saturday, and that could spread some light snow showers into the region before sunrise on Saturday.

Futurecast Radar : 1am to 7am Saturday

But this is a much milder air mass, so the arrival of the precipitation will also bring milder air with it.  That means any wet snow before dawn on Saturday, will change to scattered rain showers Saturday morning.  Highs will climb into the low 40s Saturday afternoon, easily melting whatever slushy coating may fall.  Then those mild temps stick with us through the weekend, before another storm system tries to impact the region to kick off next week’s weather.

While we don’t see any promising winter weather threats right this moment… the pattern is close enough to what we need, that we’ll need to keep monitoring the situation.  For now, we hope everyone has a wonderful end to the work week, and an excellent weekend!

Tuesday Discussion : Another Quick Shot of Snow

The pattern is slowly changing, and gradually becoming milder and less active.  But before we get there, we’re seeing some minor snow events.  We’ll have another little disturbance on Tuesday, as another weak front pushes through around mid day.

Futurecast Radar : 7am to 7pm

Wet snow showers will push into the region between 10am and 12pm in most areas.  Temps will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday, so with temps in the mid 30s, some of the snow showers could mix with rain showers in the valley.  A slushy coating is possible in the valley in a few spots… but in the Catskills a quick inch or so is possible as the snow showers move through.  Afternoon highs should climb into the mid and upper 30s.

From there, things quiet down a bit… but on Wednesday, we should see afternoon temps jump into the mid and possibly upper 40s!  A wonderful and welcome change from our recent weather pattern.  You can get our latest forecast on the main HVW page.

Snow Recap : Thursday 2/18 – Friday 2/19

Things have been kind of crazy lately, and so we haven’t posted our snow history map from last week.  We’ll share the snow history map from Monday once we have all the data in.  Likely Tuesday night or Wednesday.  As far as last Thursday and Friday… the snow started in some places around 2am Thursday, and ended Friday afternoon around 5pm.  We saw a general 3 to 5 inches around there region over the 2 day period.  The forecast called for a general 3 to 7 inches of snow, and most places saw that.

Considering it snowed on and off for nearly 36 hours… these snow totals were quite low.

Monday Discussion : Final Snow Forecast 2/22/21

Timing:
– 10am to 1pm : Snow starts from west to east
– 12pm to 3pm : Snow, possibly heavy
– 2pm to 5pm : Snow tapers from west to east
 
Impact/Conditions:
– Short duration event (cold front)
– Temps 30° to 35° = wet snow
– Potential heavy snow for a short period (1″/hr)
– Main roads may be mostly wet due to milder temps
– Heavy snow = snow covered roads & low visibility
 
Snow Accumulations:
– Entire Hudson Valley : 1 to 3 inches of snow
** higher elevations (over 1000 feet) could see locally 4″ or 5″)
A short duration cold front will bring a burst of snow on Monday.
Futurecast Radar : 9am to 7pm
The timing is the middle of the day, and could cause some travel problems in the heavier bursts of snow. Temps will be near or even a degree above freezing, giving us a wet snow. Milder temps will cause snow to struggle to stick to roads, except for when snowfall rates are increased. We could see a period of snow where rates are 1″ per hour for a brief time between 12pm and 3pm. During that time, visibilities less than 1/4 mile are expected, and snow will accumulate to all surfaces, so travel could be very hazardous. Everything exits the area between 3pm and 6pm from west to east.
When all is said and done, 1 to 3 inches are likely around the region. Higher elevations above 1000 feet could see slightly higher totals, so 4 or 5 inches can’t be ruled out there. Even in some of the hill towns of the valley, 3 or 4 inches can’t be ruled out. Due to the milder temps… elevation will make a difference in your snow totals on Monday afternoon.
 
We’ll try to share updates as we go through the morning and afternoon on Monday.

Sunday Discussion : A Little More Snow on Monday

Saturday was a decent winter day around the region… with sun, flurries, and a breeze… with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.  Sunday looks just a bit better, with more sun, no flurries, and less of a breeze.  Highs on Sunday should be creep near the freezing mark.  We hope everyone has a great Sunday around the region.

The thing everyone’s eyes are on, is Monday afternoon’s wet snow potential.

Preliminary Summary:

– Cold front with snow pushes through 11am to 5pm Monday
– Temps likely 31 to 34 degrees
– Snow rates could be rather heavy for a short period of time
– PM Commute could be tricky.
– Accumulations… a coating to 3 inches appear possible

Futurecast Radar : 1am to 7pm Monday

You can see the cold front approaching the Hudson Valley from the west on Monday.  A few snow flakes are possible near sunrise with a very weak warm front pushing through.  Winds shift out of the south, and will bring afternoon highs into the low and possibly even mid 30s.  The front pushes east, and reaches the Hudson Valley between 10am and 1pm… and then ends between 3 and 6pm.  The snow only lasts for a few hours, but could come down heavily for a short period of time.  In that short period of time… here is the projected snow amounts…

The heaviest snow is likely in NE PA, where a quick 3 to 6 inches seems possible.  In the Catskills, we could see the same thing… a brief but potent snow, that brings 3 to 6 inches of snow.  In the Hudson Valley, it’s a bit less… a general 1 to 3 inches of snow.  This is an indication of how hard it may snow Monday afternoon.  The snow is in the region for roughly 2 to 5 hours…. and in that time we could get 1 to 3 inches of snow.

The good news, is that the afternoon temps may be a bit above freezing… 33 or 34 degrees in spots.  This could make for wet… instead of white roads.  However, working against that idea, is the potentially heavy snow rates.  If it snows heavy for a couple hours… then even with the milder temps, it will still accumulate on roads.  So we’ll take a closer look on Sunday, to see just how this snow event seems likely to unfold.  But keep in mind, that your Monday afternoon travel plans could be affected.

Have a great Sunday!

Winter Storm Update : 11:30am

“Captains Log : Round 742583.9… we’ve received word from the federation, that the snow may never end. They have advised us that because of the wintry anomaly, that reinforcements can not penetrate the snow shield. We are on our own, and will need to face the white winter threat alone…”
Joking aside, we know everyone is becoming weary of this weak and disorganized…. but stubborn and persistent storm. The radar clearly shows that the snow has redeveloped over the region, despite all appearances yesterday that this system was over. The snow is moving from SW to NE and redeveloping as it does.  Notice the radar fill in over eastern PA , and that is heading our way.
Radar Loop : 10:20am – 11:20am
So expect periods of on and off light to moderate snow, to continue through the afternoon hours. Guidance suggests the snow tapers from west to east slowly… beginning after 2pm, but possibly not tapering off completely until 8pm. So conditions are not likely to improve this afternoon. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s due to the snow… and could rise around 30° if the snow stops.
ADDITIONAL accumulation could be another coating to as much as 2 inches in some spots. That’s on top of what was on the ground as of 10am this morning. That should bring most locations to a final accumulation of 3 to 7 inches when all is said and done. Conditions should gradually improve overnight… but will be very cold, with lows falling into the teens.
Feel free to continue providing us with snow totals, observations and road conditions. Either in the comments below, or in the Observation thread from earlier this morning. Stay warm, and stay safe Hudson Valley. As Alex would say… “Keep calm…. and Weather On.” ???