forecasts

Tuesday Discussion : Cooler and Blustery

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Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies, breezy and cooler. High near 70°.
Tue Night: Partly cloudy and crisp. Low 45° to 50°.
Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sunshine. High in the mid to upper 60s
Tuesday High Temperatures:
In the wake of Monday’s thunderstorms, we’ll see much less humidity and cooler temperatures around the region. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies, but a blustery WNW wind will make the temps near 70° feel a bit cooler. A comfortable mid spring day lined up for Tuesday. Similar conditions will persist into Wednesday as well. We hope you have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Severe Storm Potential

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Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms were scattered about the Hudson Valley on Sunday, but we have some concerns that storms will be stronger and possibly severe on Monday.
 
…Monday: Sunshine mixing with afternoon clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 75 to 80. Severe storms with wind damage possible.
…Mon Night: Scattered showers likely, tapering off near midnight. Low in the low near 50.
…Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies and cooler. High in the upper 60s.
MONDAY PM SUMMARY:
– Squall line of T-Storms expected to develop
– Severe potential: Slight to enhanced (15% to 45% chance)
– Timing : 2pm to 7pm (best chance 4pm to 7pm)
As a trough approaches the east coast, we’ll have SW winds out ahead of the cold front. The expected sheer is what could give us the wind damage that is a concern. Roughly a 15% to 30% chance of a severe T-Storm within 30 miles of any location, with some areas in enhanced risk with up to a 45% chance. The line of T-storms is expected to push through during the mid/late afternoon or early evening hours. Heavy downpours, lightning, and damaging wind gusts are possible with this squall line. The peak timing appears to be 4pm to 7pm at this point, but we’ll fine tune with updates in the afternoon.

Sunday Discussion : Continued Unsettled

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Sunday: Clouds with breaks of sun. Scattered late day shower or T-Storm possible. High in the upper 70s.
Sun Night: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered evening showers and thunderstorms. Low in the upper 50s.
Monday: Sunshine mixing with afternoon clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near evening. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday Afternoon Highs:
Our onshore flow continues on Sunday, with the clouds, breaks of sunshine, and areas of drizzle expected across the region. Warm air will linger again, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 possible. So despite the unsettled atmosphere, it will remain humid and warm around the region.
 
A few isolated late day and evening T-Storms are possible Sunday evening, as it’s possible there’s enough instability to touch off a few showers, and possibly a storm. But the bigger threat for afternoon and evening strong to severe T-Storms comes on Monday. A trough of low pressure will dig into the northeast, and that will touch off a line of showers and T-Storms that could have damaging wind gusts Monday late afternoon and early evening. We’ll monitor this closer as we head into Monday.
Have a great Sunday!

Wednesday Weekend Preview : How Nice Will It Be?

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That’s the question you’re here to have answered, and as often is the case in the weather world, the answer is not super simple.
As of Wednesday afternoon we’ve got some beautiful spring weather in the Hudson Valley. A mix of clouds and sun, with temps in the low to mid 70s. Fantastic mid May weather! The questions have to do with those high clouds you see in the sky. Those high clouds are related to an onshore flow off the Atlantic, resulting from the after effects of last weekend’s coastal storm. That storm stalled over the Atlantic, and is drifting SW toward the southeast US coastline as it weakens. The resulting onshore flow will cause high clouds to push into the east coast of the US… and the big question is just how many clouds we see. Some guidance suggests Thursday and Friday are mainly cloudy with a few spotty rain showers, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s… while other guidance suggests the clouds are similar to Wednesday, giving the region a mix of clouds and sun and highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Which solution is correct, we’ll have to tweak the forecast as we get closer. But the important take away is we’ll be mainly dry heading into the weekend. We could see a fair number of clouds, even a spot shower or two, and maybe some patchy areas of drizzle are possible, but none of the days look to be a ‘washout’. We’ll try to focus in on the details as we get closer. Have a great afternoon!

Tuesday Outlook : Stellar Spring Weather

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We’ve waited for a while for some consistent spring time weather to settle in. Finally as we move into the 2nd week of May… we’re seeing things dry out and some seasonable temps for a multiple day stretch.
…Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with a breeze. High near 70°
…Tue Night: Partly cloudy skies. Low in the low 40s.
…Wednesday: Sunshine mixing with increasing high clouds. High in the low 70s.
…Wed Night: Mostly clear skies. Low in the mid 40s.
…Thursday: Mostly sunny skies and warm. High in the upper 70s.
 
High pressure over the eastern US will hold the coastal low pressure off shore, and eventually help to pull the remnants of that energy back into the east coast weather pattern. That will bring some unsettled weather by end of the week and into the weekend. Not necessarily a washout, but a good deal of clouds with scattered showers appear to be likely this coming weekend. We’ll keep our eye on that. But until then, the weather looks fantastic! Enjoy!

Monday Outlook : Spring in Full Effect

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After a cloudy and unsettled start to the weekend on Friday and Saturday, Mother’s Day was a nice improvement with highs around 60°. But as we move into the work week, things improve quickly… and some beautiful weather is coming our way.
Afternoon High Temperatures:  Monday 5/9 through Saturday 5/14
…Monday: Partly to mostly sunny skies, and breezy. High in the mid 60s.
…Mon Night: Partly cloudy skies. Low in the upper 30s to near 40°.
…Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with a breeze. High near 70°.
…Tue Night: Partly cloudy skies. Low in the low 40s.
…Wednesday: Sunshine mixing with increasing high clouds. High in the low 70s.
 
The effects of the departing coastal storm will be with us for a day or two, in the form of a breezy NE wind, as the storm moves southward, back toward the SE US coast. But aside from the breeze, conditions in the Hudson Valley will improve considerably each day. Average highs for this time of year are in the upper 60s, and we’ll be at or above that average through the week. Our next chance at showers comes either Friday or Saturday, as the remnants of our coastal storm from this past weekend, slowly loop back around to the region by the end of this coming week. Between now and then however… things look great!
 
These graphics are the afternoon high temperatures for NY State, from Monday (tomorrow) through Saturday. The Hudson Valley could be in the mid to upper 70s by late week. A welcome sight for all our neighbors who have been looking for spring. Get ready for some gorgeous springtime weather!
 
Have a great week!

Sunday Discussion : Improvements for Mother’s Day

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Happy Mother’s Day, Hudson Valley!!
After a storm system brought periods of rain to the lower half of the Hudson Valley, sunshine should return and temps will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees below average…
…Sunday: Mix of clouds and sunshine, breezy. High around 60°.
…Sun Night: Mostly clear skies, chilly. Low in the mid to upper 30s.
…Monday: Partly to mostly sunny skies. High in the mid 60s.
…Mon Night: Partly cloudy skies. Low in the upper 30s to near 40°
…Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies and gorgeous. High near 70°
 
The coastal storm gradually exiting out to sea, will allow clouds to exit from west to east. So areas further west will see more sunshine than areas further east. But a decent, dry Mother’s Day with highs near 60° is what we expect. However, the average high for today is 68°, so while Sunday’s conditions will be an improvement, we should be a bit warmer in the HV.
But looking ahead, we should improve each day more and more, so that by mid week… we’re expecting highs around 70°. Infact, for the 2nd half of the week, some beautiful Spring weather could be on the way. We’ll let you know if that trend holds as we move through the week. For now, baby step improvements each day will have to do… beginning on Sunday. Have a great day!

Friday Discussion : Unsettled Weekend Expected

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Thursday was beautiful around the region, but unfortunately as we approach the weekend, we’ll have clouds and the threat of showers increasing.
…Friday: Cloudy skies with rain showers in the afternoon. High around 60°.
…Fri Night: Cloudy with periods of rain… especially south of I-84. Low in the upper 40s.
…Saturday: Cloudy with rain showers likely during the morning, possibly tapering off in the afternoon. High around 50°.
…Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. High around 60°
 
A storm system with a VERY sharp rainfall gradient will impact the region Friday into Saturday. High pressure in Canada will help to suppress the storm from moving northward. The end result will be rain showers developing near mid-day on Friday… but the further north you go, the less rain showers are expected.
So areas like Goshen and Chester could see a soaking steady rain by Friday evening… and areas north of Kingston may be mostly dry at times. The end result is the 2nd graphic… where expected rainfall near and south of I-84 is approaching 2″… while the upper HV and northern Catskills are projected to get around 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Despite the large difference in rainfall amounts, we all will likely be cloudy, damp and chilly… with Saturday highs struggling to reach 50°. Mother’s Day looks to see some improvement… but a cool mainly dry) spring day appears likely for Mother’s Day. So despite the rain threat… we hope you have a great Friday! TGIF

Wednesday Discussion : Clouds and Damp

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Another weak system approaching the region for Wednesday will mean a return to low clouds and scattered rain showers.
…Wednesday: Scattered showers tapering to spotty areas of drizzle in the afternoon… remaining mostly cloudy. High around 60°.
…Wed Night: Mostly cloudy skies, turning partly cloudy overnight. Low in the upper 40s.
…Thursday: Partly cloudy skies, and very nice. High near 70°.
…Friday: More clouds than sunshine, chance of scattered showers. High in the low 60s.
 
Lots of clouds with periods of scattered showers and areas of drizzle will persist into the afternoon hours before gradually tapering off late in the day. Skies will clear out overnight and leave us with a beautiful Thursday around the Hudson Valley. Friday will see another storm system approach, but that system may stay just SW of the Hudson Valley until Saturday… but we’ll keep tabs on the details. The weekend looks decent… with Saturday possibly seeing some rain showers. At the moment, Sunday (Mother’s Day) looks like the better of the 2 days, with partly cloudy skies and temps in the 60s. We’ll see if that forecast holds as we get closer.
Have a great Wednesday

Tuesday Discussion : Lingering Clouds

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A chilly and damp start to the work week around the region, with clouds, showers and drizzle lingering through the day. But we’ll see some minor improvements on Tuesday.
…Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered rain showers possible. High in the low to mid 60s.
…Tue Night: Cloudy with scattered showers developing. Low around 50°.
…Wednesday: Scattered morning showers rain showers… mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. High around 60°
…Wed Night: Mostly cloudy skies, turning partly cloudy overnight. Low in the mid 40s.
…Thursday: Partly cloudy skies, and very nice. High near 70°.
 
Clouds will linger on Tuesday, but we should have some breaks of sun, and milder air into the region. Highs on Tue should reach the mid 60s for many parts of the valley. Another frontal system approaches for Wednesday. That brings clouds back with patchy areas of showers Tue night into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts appear light, less than 1/4 inch. Then conditions are likely to improve yet again for Thursday.
 
It’s the beginning of May, and Mother Nature will bring us ups and downs in terms of the weather. Have a great Tuesday!