Friday Discussion : Afternoon Showers & T’storms

Once again, unsettled weather is expected today as a backdoor cold front passes through our region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Hudson Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early this evening. While likely not a widespread severe weather event, everyone should stay weather aware, especially this afternoon.

Timing: Current model data indicates shower and thunderstorm activity entering our region from north to south between 1-4 pm and lingering through the early evening.

While likely not a widespread severe weather event, any storm that reaches severe criteria will be capable of producing be frequent lightning, large hail, strong gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall, which may result in isolated flash flooding in low lying areas.

Below is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook followed by a simulated radar for this afternoon, which shows activity increasing as the day progresses.

Greetings from Kyle

Thanks to everyone for such a warm welcome. I certainly appreciate all of the well wishes. I’m beyond thrilled to share my passion for severe weather with the Hudson Valley Weather community.

Weather has been a lifelong fascination of mine. As a young child, while most kids my age were watching cartoons, I’d be glued to The Weather Channel. After its emergence in 2011, I followed HVW throughout middle and high school, especially during nor’easters. The local angle and abundance of weather information fed my passion. I’m ecstatic to now be a part of it. 

As Alex and Bill already mentioned about me, I am a lifelong resident of Cold Spring and graduated from Haldane High School in 2019.  I currently attend Mississippi State University where I’m studying Professional Meteorology with an emphasis in Broadcast Meteorology.  Between MSU’s strong Meteorology program and my interest in the volatile severe weather that the deep south provides, Mississippi State has been a perfect fit for me.  The mild climate is also a plus, especially to someone who appreciates warm weather.  

Nonetheless, the Hudson Valley holds a special place in my heart and it’s where I will always call home.  I am so thankful for the opportunity Alex and Bill have given me and I look forward to contributing to and engaging with the Hudson Valley Weather community.

– Kyle Kisslinger

Mid Week Discussion : Unsettled Upper Level Lows

Monday was a surprisingly stormy afternoon around the Hudson Valley.  Guidance had detected the potential for some spotty afternoon T-Storms to materialize… but instead we saw widespread strong to severe thunderstorms, as an upper level low has stalled out over the eastern US.

Thunderstorms rotated southward, due to a large upper level low system stalled out over the eastern US.  Here is the 500mb Jet Stream pattern for the United States over the next 5 days.  Notice that top right of the image has a blue area that doesn’t move much over the course of the week.

500mb Jet Stream Pattern – Tuesday through Friday

You can see the upper level low stalled out over the eastern US.  This will keep the northeast flow that was in place on Monday… in place through the week.  That means a repeated threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Here’s the futurecast radar for Tuesday, and you’ll see that there will be an extended period of scattered afternoon thunderstorms once again around the region… so make sure you plan for the potential on your Tuesday.

Futurecast Radar : 10am Tuesday through 12am Wednesday

This threat will repeat itself on Wednesday, and likely on Thursday as well.  Because so long as the upper level low doesn’t move, the threat for storms will linger.

Sunday Discussion: Summer Heat and Humidity

The heat is already building into the region as of 10am. But unlike Saturday, sunshine and clouds will mix for a rather nice day. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s are likely… but the humidity will be high today, so prepare for a sticky feel to the air.

A few stray, pop up afternoon showers and T-Storms can’t be ruled out, as the atmosphere will be primed due to the heat and humidity. Even so, the potential looks to be less than 50% in any location… but you’ll need to keep an eye to the sky and/or radar this afternoon.

Looking at the next few days, expect a warm and comfortable start to the week, with some instability by Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level low pressure could bring some unsettled weather. Both days are not a total washout, but we’ll have to monitor the threat for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.

Hope everyone has a wonderful final Sunday of June!!

Soaking Saturday Rainfall!

While we probably wish that it didn’t have to occur on a Saturday, we’ve got some much needed rain showers pushing into the Hudson Valley.

You can see on radar a wide swath of steady rainfall. The rain in focused north of I-84… but even our southern areas should get in on the action. Considering the very dry conditions around the region, this is exactly what we need. These areas of light to moderate rain will be with us into the afternoon, exiting the region later today. There is a chance that some rumbles of thunder will be possible later today as well. However, due to the low clouds and rainfall, the concern for severe weather this afternoon has greatly diminished. Temps are likely to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s during the showers. We’ll keep an eye on things through the day. Have a great start to the weekend!

Early / Mid Week Discussion : Heat Holds On

Summer arrived with some heat and humidity over the weekend.  Highs in the upper 80s around the region, made it feel every bit like the middle of summer.  As we push through the first half of the week, the heat will hold on, as will the humidity…

A weak front pushes through on Wednesday, and while it won’t translate into cooler air, it should result in lower humidity levels.  Those humidity levels will will stay low until the weekend.

But the big question, is will we get any rainfall?  We are getting more and more dry around the region.

The northeastern HV is now officially in an abnormally dry condition, and that’s due to weeks of minimal rainfall.  When we look to the potential for rain in the coming few days, it’s not too promising…

A scattered shower or thunderstorm between Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon… is likely the best and only shot we’ve got to see measurable rainfall.  If this rainfall were to materialize, it would be very welcome.  While it won’t go very far toward helping the drought situation… it certainly won’t hurt either.  But we’ll need more opportunities at rain in the coming week or two in order to offset the deficit.

For now… we hope everyone has a great week!

Weekend Outlook : Building Humidity & Summer Warmth

It’s feeling like summer around the Hudson Valley… and that’s fitting, because summer officially arrives on Saturday at 5:44pm.  With the arrival of summer will come a multi day stretch of heat and building humidity.  As we go through the weekend, the heat will rise each day into the 80s.  Temps in the mid to upper 80s are likely through the weekend, and by early next week, highs in the low 90s are possible.  With the elevated humidity levels, it will feel like the upper 80s over the weekend… and rising into the mid 90s for the first half of next week.

The overall pattern over the next 2 weeks looks to see temperatures above average.

It will feel like the middle of summer, because with average highs around 80° at this point in the year, when we add in temperatures about 5 degrees above average over the next 7 days… that puts us in the mid to upper 80s for highs, and with humidity, it will feel around 90°.  Last weekend felt like spring… but this weekend, we’ll definitely feel like summer!

Have a great weekend!

Mid Week Discussion : Warmer, Remaining Dry

The early summer heat is building into the Hudson Valley, as we approach the first day of summer on Saturday.  The average high for this time of year is right around 80°, and in the next few days, we’ll rise above average for mid to late June… into the mid 80s.  Humidity levels will slowly rise… but not into oppressive levels.  So it will feel warm, and summer like, but not oppressively hot.

The issue going forward is the dryness around the region.

The abnormally dry area is creeping into the northeastern part of the state.  Each week, as the rainfall stays out of the northeast, the dry area builds.  The upper level low pressure that we had hoped would spread some rain into the area this past week… stayed too far to the south.  So we didn’t see anything in terms of rainfall.  The hope as we get toward the weekend, is that the high pressure can give just enough ground to get some thunderstorms into the region.

This map shows expected rainfall over the next 5 days.  You’ll notice we don’t expect much in the Hudson Valley at the moment.  That’s because the high pressure over the northeast holds ground, and keeps the unsettled weather in Pennsylvania and points west.  If the high pressure can be a bit weaker (which is possible), we could get some scattered afternoon thunderstorms into the Hudson Valley this weekend.  Cross your fingers we get a little rainfall… we sure could use it.

Have a great mid-week!

Monday Discussion : Quiet Start to the Week

A 5 star weekend in the books, and we head into mid June with temperatures in the 70s… roughly 5 degrees below average for this time of year.  The weather to open the week looks quite nice to be honest.  Partly to mostly sunny skies, with low humidity, and temperatures near or just below average.  Temps will gradually rise as we go through the week, and by late week afternoon highs could be in the upper 80s and near 90°.  Some summer heat could be on the way for sure.  But with all this nice weather, it’s getting to the point where we could certainly use the rain…

You can see that over the last 30 days, precipitation across the Hudson Valley is well below average.  The eastern HV especially, with eastern Ulster and northern Dutchess seeing less than 40% of normal rainfall.  Any time you see less than half of normal rainfall over a 30 day period, you’re going to begin having some minor drought concerns at a minimum… and if the pattern doesn’t change in the next 2 weeks, drought concerns will begin to spread and intensify.

We’ll see if we can get some rainfall before June is over… but as it looks right now, the next 5 days look rather dry.  We hope everyone is staying safe and healthy… have a great start to the week!

Weekend Outlook : Swing Back to Spring

After a week that featured some heat and humidity, a burst of rain on Thursday, and a fantastic Friday… the weekend looks like a swing back to Spring.  The average high for this time of year is in the upper 70s.  This weekend, we’ll see slightly cooler temperatures than the average… with highs expected in the low 70s.  This would be more typical of mid-May rather than mid-June.  So for anyone looking for summer weather to hit the pool… you’re going to be disappointed this weekend.  But if you’re looking for some nice, comfortable, spring-like weather… you’re going to love what’s in store for this weekend.

Both Saturday and Sunday should see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s.  Saturday night looks quite chilly to be honest, with overnight lows possibly tumbling into the mid 40s (also more typical of mid May).  So we should be able to toss open those windows at night, and let some cool, fresh air into the room.

Looking ahead to next week, initially we were thinking that an upper level low pressure would spin moisture into the region for much of the work week.  It was appearing that we’d have a good shot at getting several days of scattered showers and give us some much needed rainfall.  However, as upper level low pressures tend to be… this one was very difficult to forecast the position and timing of.  It now appears the upper level low will stall out over the deep south, rather than the mid-Atlantic.  The difference will be dramatic in terms of the forecast.  Instead of several days of unsettled weather, with a chance of considerable rainfall… it now looks like we’ll be mostly sunny and dry through most of the work week.  Considering the fact that we need the rainfall… this isn’t such a great thing.  But if you have outdoor plans, at least that’s a positive.

We hope everyone has a great weekend, and enjoy the spring time weather.