forecasts

Friday Discussion : Beautiful Start to the Weekend

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We dodged any severe weather on Thursday, and instead just had some rain showers and breezy conditions to contend with.  In the wake of that front… some outstanding weather to close out the week, and start the weekend…

The cold front pushed through overnight, and you’ll notice a persistent NW breeze today, that will usher in cooler, dryer air.  Temps in the upper 70s to near 80°  will likely fall a couple degrees this afternoon as the cooler air settles in.  Humidity will be erased from the region as well, all thanks to the northwest flow resulting from the trough moving through.  But the bright sunshine and blue skies will carry us through the afternoon, and into tonight.  Tonight, we’ll have mostly clear skies with diminishing NW winds… and temps will tumble overnight.  Lows in the low 50s are expected, even a few upper 40s can’t be ruled out in the colder spots.  Some crisp sleeping weather coming overnight.

Then Saturday looks just as stellar as Friday.  Sunshine and blue skies, with a northwest breeze.  Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected for Saturday, which is a solid 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year (avg high 84°).  Then again Saturday night, temps tumble into the 50s, and a crisp night of sleeping weather is expected.

Sunday looks a bit more unsettled, as a low pressure over the mid-Atlantic tries to get its act together.  Winds will shift out of the south, and clouds will move in Sunday morning.  Temps likely in the 70s to near 80° out ahead of what will be mostly cloudy skies Sunday afternoon.  A few scattered rain showers are also possible, but the system does not look particularly well organized.  Something we’ll keep our eyes on.

Futurecast Radar : 7am to 7pm Sunday

So while Sunday looks mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers possible… the day doesn’t look like a total washout.  But for our best weather, you will certainly be targetting Friday and Saturday this weekend.  Have a great day, and great start to your weekend!

Thursday Discussion : Showers & T-Storms on the Way

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Low clouds in the Hudson Valley have kept temperatures cool, in the mid 70s out ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will touch off a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms across the Hudson Valley and the Northeast. As a result, the National Weather Service has parts of our area under Marginal and Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon.
In response, we are issuing a Stormpact map for the afternoon.
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The greatest threat is for areas south of I-84, because the combination of atmospheric shear and instability are greatest. The low clouds will once again aid in stabilizing the atmosphere in the Hudson Valley, minimizing the heat energy available. But the wind shear (wind moving in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere), associated with the cold front will be considerable, and will elevate the threat for wind damage as the front passes through today.
 
For the afternoon, ahead of the front, a few pop up super cell T-Storms can’t be ruled out… however, the low clouds should minimize the development of these. Between 1pm and 3pm the front edge of the showers and embedded T-Storms should move into the Catskills. The majority of the Hudson Valley should see the front edge of the showers and storms arrive between 3pm and 6pm.
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Futurecast Radar: 1pm to 9pm
Guidance suggests gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible with the arrival of the squall line… but the latest guidance suggests that there will not be a large number of strong to severe T-Storm cells. For that reason, our Stormpact graphic has low impact & outages. Remember, however… that while a low number of severe cells are expected, if one occurs, it could contain damaging wind gusts over 50mph, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out (5% chance) with the wind shear today.
 
As always, we will try to share warnings as they are issued this afternoon. Feel free to check back with us as things develop.

Wednesday Afternoon Discussion : Next Front Approaches

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A beautiful afternoon around the region, lots of sunshine and blue skies, with temps in the upper 70s to near 80°. Tonight we’ll watch temps fall into the mid 60s for overnight lows… with clouds increasing overnight. That’s because a frontal system will be moving our way from the Great Lakes.
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Futurecast Radar : 8am – 8pm Thursday
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It will spread periods of rain showers and embedded T-Storms into the Hudson Valley during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The low clouds and rain showers will keep us cool… highs on Thursday are only expected to be in the low 70s. The threat of rain showers and embedded T-Storms will last through the afternoon and evening hours… tapering off before midnight most likely. So be sure to plan ahead if you have plans on Thursday… rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder could certainly play a role.

Sunday Afternoon Discussion : Stubborn Low Clouds

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Happy Sunday everyone, we hope you’re all doing well and enjoying your day. Weather wise, the low clouds and patchy areas of drizzle continue to linger in the region as of mid day. You can see on the latest radar, that a few spotty showers and drizzle are visible in the Catskills. These will move ESE this afternoon, into the Hudson Valley… and could bring some spotty showers into our area. Temperatures are holding in the mid 70s under the low clouds, with a good bit of humidity in the air.
The big question for this afternoon has been… and continues to be… will scattered T-Storms develop like some computer guidance suggests. In the Campfire Chat last night, we discussed our belief that the low clouds would stabilize the atmosphere, and limit the development and strength of the afternoon T-Storms. However, these situations are notoriously complex to forecast, so our forecast included the T-storm threat in our afternoon weather. At this hour, the radar is quiet… quieter than the guidance indicated. However, that same computer guidance continues to suggest T-Storms will develop over the next couple hours, primarily for the mid and lower HV. So we will continue to track the situation as the afternoon continues. The potential exists for a few T-Storms to pop up over the next few hours, and one or two storms could contain strong (potentially damaging) winds and heavy downpours.
 
… Afternoon Forecast …
Low clouds possibly mixing with breaks of sun. Humid with scattered showers and patchy drizzle possible. Isolated T-Storm development can’t be ruled out between 1pm and 5pm. High in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain showers 40% or less.
 
If anything develops, we will share it here. Feel free to get the latest forecast information on the website www.hudsonvalleyweather.com

Friday Afternoon Discussion: Weekend Outlook

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Some fine weather for our Friday afternoon around the Hudson Valley. Afternoon highs around the region are in the upper 70s to low 80s. As we look to the weekend, our Saturday looks fantastic in the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday, with comfortable humidity, and highs around 80°. Anyone with outdoor plans, it will be hard to beat the weather we’ll see on Saturday!
We’ll watch clouds roll in Saturday night, ahead of a warm front that will impact our Sunday weather. Scattered showers are possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Things should dry out early on Sunday, and then give us a mix of clouds and sunshine by late morning. However a cold front will be approaching Sunday afternoon, and that could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Something to monitor as we go through the weekend. Highs on Sunday should climb into the low 80s.
 
Everything clears out by Monday, and our work week should start off rather quiet, with near average temperatures and a decent bit of sunshine. We’ll continue to monitor the weather through the weekend, and share any updates as we go. We hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Monday Discussion: Stubborn Upper Level Low

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The upper level low is slowly pulling east… but the low clouds and and instability are lingering over the Hudson Valley, being stubborn to leave. Instead of a mix of clouds and sunshine… we’re stuck with low clouds and areas of drizzle… at least for the morning.

You can see on this satellite, Radar, and temperature image, that as of 11am, temperatures are holding in the upper 60s to mid 70s accompanied by considerable humidity. You can see clouds lingering over the entire HV, but just to the west of our area, you can see clearing skies… and temperatures jumping up toward 80°. So the expectation this afternoon is that we’ll have sunshine mixing in, and temps climbing around 80°. We just need the clouds and patchy drizzle to actually lift out of the valley. Until it does… expect mostly cloudy skies with a threat of a localized shower, and moderate humidity.

Looking ahead… some relief is on the way. A front will drop south on Wednesday, and bring a drier… less humid air mass. So for those who have grown weary of the humidity and heat…. We will get a bit of relief for the 2nd half of the work week and coming weekend. For more details, you can visit the mobile friendly website www.hudsonvalleyweather.com

Have a great afternoon!!

Friday Discussion : Return of the Heat Advisory

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…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT…
…FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING…
* WHAT…Heat index values between 95 and 100 expected.
* WHERE…Eastern Greene, Western Columbia, Eastern Ulster and
Western Dutchess, Rockland & Westchester Counties.
* WHEN…From 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Thursday Discussion : Stellar Summer Weather? Maybe…

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Hazy sunshine mixing with clouds are with us on this Thursday morning, and will be with us through the afternoon hours as well. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we will NOT have to deal with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the region today… but this pattern has tripped up the computer models in the past few days, so we can’t entirely rule out the threat for an isolated afternoon shower or T-Storm. However, the heat and humidity will begin building once again. Afternoon highs are likely to be in the mid to upper 80s, with the ‘real feel’ heat index in the upper 80s to low 90s.  So it will appropriately feel like summer across the region.
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The heat and muggy air will stick with us through tonight, overnight lows only around 70°. Then on Friday, similar to today, we should see hazy sunshine mixed with clouds… and temps in the upper 80s during the afternoon. The heat index could be a bit more uncomfortable on Friday, with the humidity possibly making it feel like the mid 90s.
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Looking to the weekend, Saturday and Sunday are likely to have widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as an upper level low passes into the Great Lakes region. Saturday likely starts with a mix of clouds and sun, and temps climbing into the 80s, before numerous showers and T-Storms develop during the afternoon. Saturday night could feature showers and thunderstorms as well, which could carry over into Sunday morning. This pattern is very unsettled, so if you have plans for the weekend, you’ll want to check back, because the details are subject to change… as the guidance will struggle with the features of the details. Feel free to check the website, www.hudsonvalleyweather.com for the latest.

Tuesday Mid Day Discussion : Low Clouds and Humid

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Another gray day in the Hudson Valley, as our southeast flow off the Atlantic keeps low clouds, areas of drizzle, and scattered showers on the menu. This futurecast radar image runs from 12pm Tuesday afternoon through 12am tonight.
Futurecast Radar : 12pm Tue – 12am Wed
You can see the radar is expected to be rather quiet over the next 12 hours in the Hudson Valley. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms push into western PA and NY, but those should stay mainly north and west of our area.
 
For the next 36 hours…
Tuesday Afternoon: Mainly cloudy skies with areas of scattered showers and drizzle. An isolated T-Storm possible. High 75° to 80°.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, humid and unsettled with scattered showers and T-Storms possible. Low in the mid 60s.
Wednesday: Clouds and sun… warm and very humid. Scattered afternoon showers and T-Storms. High in the low 80s.

Monday Afternoon Discussion : Breaks of Sun, Along with Humidity

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The low clouds and scattered showers have broken up in some places, and we’re seeing breaks of sunshine mixing in… especially over the mid and lower Hudson Valley. Temps range from the low 70s in the upper HV, to the upper 70s in the mid HV, to the low 80s in the lower HV… largely dependent on the amount of sunshine mixing in.
Looking off to our southwest, we can see scattered showers and thunderstorms building once again. Scattered showers and areas of drizzle are likely to expand northeastward into our region overnight, and could provide more areas of rainfall for some of us. We’ll keep an eye on things… but if you have plans for this evening, keep in mind the threat of showers and even a thunderstorm.