forecasts

Weekend Outlook

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Fall weather has descended apon the region with a strong high pressure building south out of Canada. Parts of the region saw their first frost on Friday morning.  As we head into the weekend we will see highs struggling out of the 50’s with the exception being  southern parts of the region where low 60’s are likely.
The big challenge is the growing model consensus that the impacts of the remnants of Ian will have a further north impacted than excepted. The confidence of atleast a moderate  rainfall is highest across the southern parts of the region, with impacts lessening to as little as scattered showers across northern most zones.
There is the chance for rainfall exceeding an inch across parts of Orange,Rockland, Westchester Counties if the worst of the data is accurate. We will need to monitor the data to see how this scenario plays out. Attached is the GFS,Euro and NAM depiction of how much rainfall may occur.

As you can see below, like a winter storm we have a sharp precipitation gradient across the region and the moisture associated with Ian battles the high pressure that built in over the region Friday.  

Tuesday Discussion : Beautiful Mid Week Weather

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After scattered T-Storms brought more welcome rain to parts of the region Monday afternoon… Tuesday should be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s. A beautiful day across the region. Wednesday looks a bit warmer, with highs around 80°… before our next cold front approaches on Wednesday night. Thursday is likely to see mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers, as the cold front pushes through. Behind that front, we’ll see highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (and even some upper 30s in the coldest spots), moving in for the weekend. Have a great day!

The Week Ahead : Unsettled Start, Fall Preview Late Week

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MONDAY: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers possible. High around 80°.
MON NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers likely, especially after midnight. Low in the low 60s.
TUESDAY: Rain showers becoming scattered, and tapering off before noon. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High near 80.
TUE NIGHT: Clouds giving way to partly cloudy skies. Low in the mid 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny skies, beautiful, low humidity. High in the upper 70s.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and blue skies. Beautiful. High in the low 70s.
FRIDAY: Lots of sunshine with an early fall feel. High around 70°
An unsettled start to the work week, after a soggy Sunday around the region. An upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep us unsettled, as the counter clockwise rotation spins up some atmospheric instability. Monday looks ‘mostly’ dry, but with a good deal of cloudiness. An area of scattered showers is expected to develop Monday night and last into Tuesday morning. Anywhere from a quarter inch to 1 inch appears possible.
Once the upper level low exits… things will improve dramatically. By Wednesday, a good deal of sunshine with low humidity… and highs around 80°. Then a flow out of Canada will usher in some of the coolest air we’ve seen since spring. Highs Thursday and Friday should be in the upper 60s to low 70s… and overnight lows in the mid 40s are likely. The early look at next weekend suggests that high pressure is still in place to give us some great weather. Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, possibly low 80s next Sunday? Check back as we get closer for better details.
 
A damp start to the week, but gorgeous weather on the horizon for the 2nd half of the week. Have a great day!

Monday Discussion : Flood Watch In Effect

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The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the entire region (excluding Greene & Columbia counties). Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible, with some localized totals up to 5 inches possible.
You can see on the Futurecast images, that the next 18 hours will feature plenty of rainfall across the area. The SW flow will usher plenty of moisture up into the Hudson Valley over the next 24 hours. Areas not currently seeing rain, will begin to see the rain move in before sunset. Periods of light to moderate rain will then continue through the night tonight, and into Tuesday afternoon. Rain could fall heavy at times Monday night and Tuesday morning… and for this reason the Flood Watches have been issued.
It may seem counter-intuitive to have a Flood Watch in effect with the Hudson Valley in a drought… but the extremely dry ground may struggle to absorb the rainfall when it falls heavily… so runoff and flooding is a concern for the flood prone areas. More updates as needed tonight.

Drought Update : Relief on the Way

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Last Tuesday we saw our first widespread rain event in many weeks. But the bulk of the rain was confined to the Catskills and NW portions of the region. The result was that despite some rainfall… the drought conditions EXPANDED last week. Much of the area east of the Hudson River is now in a ‘Severe Drought’, while the rest of the valley is in a ‘Moderate Drought’.
We did an analysis of the Hudson Valley’s rainfall over several different periods of time. We looked at the last week, the last 30 days, last 90 days, and the year as a whole. We listed the average Poughkeepsie rainfall over each period, and the map shows roughly how much rain (precipitation) actually fell. The Poughkeepsie area has seen between 20% and 40% of what we would expect in an ‘average’ year. For instance over the last 30 days… Poughkeepsie should see about 4.2 inches of rain. Instead, only 1.08″ of rain fell. About 23% of average. You can also see just how dry it has been for the entire year, which does not look as bad, because through April, we were near average.
But there is some relief on the way.
 
SUMMARY/TImeline:
Sunday & Sun night; Scattered showers & T-Storms
Monday: Scattered showers become widespread during afternoon
Mon night / Tue AM : Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times.
A frontal boundary will set up over the northeast and the Hudson Valley, and give us about a 48 hour window for rain. The first chance comes Sunday afternoon and evening, in the form of scattered showers and T-Storms. The chances are about 50/50. But then on Monday a more widespread area of rain showers should develop. At first it will be north of the Hudson Valley, gradually sinking southward, into the valley. Periods of scattered showers are expected through Labor Day Monday… especially the afternoon hours. It appears that a more defined area of steady rain may settle in for Monday evening through Tuesday morning… during which time much of the area could get a soaking rainfall. A look at the NWS rainfall projection map, much of the area is expecting to see between 1 and 2 inches (locally up to 3 inches) of rain… and some recent guidance is trending on the higher end of those amounts. We’ll keep our eyes on the details as they become clearer… but it looks like a widespread soaking rainfall is heading our way.

Weekend Outlook : Labor Day Weekend Preview

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SATURDAY: Partly cloudy skies. High 80° to 85°.
SAT NIGHT: Variable clouds. Low in the mid 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunshine mixing with clouds. Scattered afternoon showers & T-Storms possible. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
SUN NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers… a rumble of thunder possible. Low in the mid 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers likely later in the day. High in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
MON NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Low 60° to 65°. Chance of rain 60%.
TUESDAY: Morning showers tapering off before noon. Clouds mixing with afternoon sun. High in the mid to upper 70s.
The weekend starts off much like you would hope a holiday weekend would. Sunshine mixing with clouds, and comfortable humidity, with highs in the low to mid 80s. But much like we often see in the summer (not often in THIS summer, however), we will have a chance to see scattered showers and T-Storms Sunday afternoon.
There will be a frontal boundary setting up that will provide just enough instability for some scattered showers and T-Storms late on Sunday, and then some more widespread rain showers are expected on Monday and Monday night.
Not the greatest news for anyone with Labor Day BBQ plans… as you’ll likely have some showers to dodge through the afternoon. At the moment, it looks like the steadiest showers will be in the northern Hudson Valley, but check back for details as we get closer to Monday.
 
Have a great start to your weekend!!

Friday Weekend Outlook : Where’s the Rain?

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FRIDAY: Partly sunny with a chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
FRI NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers and storms. Low 60° to 65°.
SATURDAY: Sunny and beautiful with comfortable humidity. High in the low 80s.
SAT NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a Low near 60°.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High in the mid 80s.
SUN NIGHT: Variable cloudiness and more humid. Low in the mid 60s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid 80s.
A very disappointing week across the Hudson Valley, as the rain we were expecting on Monday and Tuesday significantly underperformed. All indications were a widespread 1″ was likely… instead, the valley saw generally around 0.25″ of rain, with higher amounts in the mountains. The result, is a Drought Monitor that looks almost identical to last week’s Drought monitor. We saw nearly zero relief from our drought conditions.
Hopefully we’ll see some relief in the next week, as we’ll eventually have a chance at some rain, but not until Tuesday it seems. Or… maybe we get a lucky break on Friday with a pop up shower or T-Storm. Otherwise the weekend looks quite nice for outdoor activity. If you have plans, the weather won’t get in your way. So while we wait for another chance at widespread rain… we hope you can enjoy the beautiful weekend weather.

The Week Ahead : Some Relief Expected

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MONDAY: Coudy with a period of rain and thunder likely. High in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall over 1 inch possible.
MON NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and unsettled with scattered rain showers possible. Low in the mid 60s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered areas of showers possible. High in the low 80s.
TUE NIGHT : Partly cloudy and seasonable. Low in the mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and warm. High in the mid 80s.
 
Moderate to severe drought conditions persist across much of the Hudson Valley, but on Monday, we should see a good portion of the region get a period of soaking rain.
TIMING :
5am to 8am: Rain showers expand across the region.
8am to 2pm: Periods of rain and showers move from south to north through the HV.
 
A few rumbles of thunder and embedded downpours are likely with this convective moisture pushing through the region. Total rainfall amounts will vary based on where the heavier downpours set up… but anywhere from 0.50″ to 1.50″ seems likely.
 
It’s not a drought buster… but it’s a start. Have a great start to the week!

Weekend Outlook : Rain on the Horizon??

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SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine and hot. High near 90°. Heat index in the low 90s.
SAT NIGHT: Variable cloudiness and milder. Low in the mid 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunshine mixing with clouds. Warm with comfortable humidity. High in the mid to upper 80s.
SUN NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness, a chance of a shower after midnight. Low in the mid 60s.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy with a period of rain and thunder likely. High in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall over 1 inch possible.
MON NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and unsettled with scattered rain showers possible. Low in the mid 60s
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered areas of showers possible. High in the low 80s.
The drought conditions across the Hudson Valley have expanded over the last week, so that the entire county of Putnam and majority of Dutchess are now under severe drought conditions. The rest of the valley is under moderate drought conditions, while the Catskills are not quite as bad. But the truth is that we ALL need the rain, and FINALLY… some hope on the horizon.
 
An upper level low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley and eastern US early Monday morning. Guidance suggests that there will be a good bit of lift in the atmosphere, which should cause showers to develop early on Monday. Some of the showers could have heavy downpours and possibly thunder. The expectation is a line of showers and heavier downpours should develop across the HV near dawn on Monday, and then it remains unsettled through the day, with additional chances of rain showers. The threat for scattered showers lasts into Tuesday afternoon, as the upper level low slowly exits.
The possibility exists for over 1 inch of rain between Monday and Tuesday, something that is EXTREMELY welcome in the Hudson Valley. This won’t end the drought, but it would be a great first step. We’ll be watching this closely, as this is the best chance for widespread rainfall in a LONG time. Until then, we hope everyone has a great start to the weekend!

The Week Ahead : Searching For Rain

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MONDAY: A mix of clouds and sunshine. A late day spot shower possible. High near 80°. Chance of rain 30%.
MON NIGHT : Partly to mostly cloudy skies… a spot shower possible. Low in the upper 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. An afternoon rain shower possible. High around 80°. Chance of rain 30%.
TUE NIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers possible. Low near 60°.
WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds and unsettled… scattered showers possible. High in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
After a hot and humid start to the month of August, this past weekend felt like a relief… with highs near 80° and low humidity. But what would REALLY be a relief would be some significant rainfall. The drought conditions have expanded across the Hudson Valley… with much of the valley splie between moderate and severe drought. Portions of the area have seen roughly 50% to 60% of the average rainfall over the past 3 months.
With an upper level low pressure over the eastern US, the potential for rain showers will increase in the coming days… however we don’t see any guaranteed rainfall in the coming days. A weak disturbance will pass by to our south on Tuesday, likely missing the Hudson Valley. When we overlay the jet stream for the coming week over the projected rainfall across the eastern US the next 7 days. You can see the majority of the rainfall is along the jet stream (storm track). So, while the upper level low brings us a cooler air mass, it currently appears that it will push the much of the rain to our south.
 
Hopefully this trends toward more rain locally in the Hudson Valley, we’ll keep our eye on it.