Tuesday Storm Discussion : Rainy Tuesday PM Commute

– 3pm to 7pm : rain develops from SW to NE
– could begin as a brief period of snow/sleet mix, quickly changing to rain.
– Catskills : slushy coating to 3 inches of snow possible before changeover.
 
Our weather has become much colder, and air temperatures are in the 20s Monday night. We have a storm system taking aim on the Hudson Valley, but unfortunately for snow lovers… the airmass is not quite cold enough to see snow across the majority Hudson Valley. That means primarily rain for the valley areas, with a period of wet snow possible for parts of the Catskills.
 
The radar may look active early in the afternoon (12pm to 3pm), but the airmass is dry, so the radar may be deceptive Tuesday afternoon as the precipitation evaporates before reaching the ground. But between 3pm and 7pm the atmosphere should saturate and precipitation should begin reaching the ground. Temps are likely to be in the mid to upper 30s in the valley… so there is a slight chance (25%) of a very brief period of wet snow & sleet could fall at the onset of the precipitation (north of I-84)… but temps will begin to climb and a quick change to a cold rain is expected. Periods of rain will fall into the overnight across the region… tapering off near sunrise on Wednesday.
The Catskills will likely see some wet snow flakes however… as air temperatures will be cold enough to support wet snow at the onset of the storm. A few hours of wet snow are possible in parts of the Catskills, before they also change over to a cold rain. A slushy inch or two of snow is possible in the traditionally colder parts of the region.
 
But for most of the region, this is a close call for the first winter storm of the season. A cold rain, and a reminder that the seasons are quickly changing. More updates as we go through the day on Wednesday.
-Bill

Saturday Evening Update : Watching Tue/Wed Storm

– Wet snow & rain mix likely near sunset Tuesday
– Mix quickly changes to rain in the valley
– Several inches of wet snow possible in Catskills
Our NW winds are beginning to wind down on the back side of a frontal system that brought rain showers to the Hudson Valley Friday night & Saturday morning. While the weather will be chilly and blustery over the next day or two… the big question on many people’s minds is what is happening with our Tuesday/Wednesday storm threat.
 
A low pressure over the midwest is likely to push into the Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, the cold high pressure moving into the Northeast tonight and Sunday will be sliding east. As the storm approaches on Tuesday, there will still be some cold air holding on across the Hudson Valley. The result may be a period of wet snow, changing over to rain before midnight Tuesday night.
 
There are multiple forecast challenges at this time…
1. How cold will the temperatures be at the surface?
2. How cold will the air be at 5000 feet (cloud level)?
3. How long does the cold air hold on, before giving way to milder air?
 
HUDSON VALLEY: Temperatures are likely to be 35° to 40° at the onset of the precipitation. The further north you go, the better odds of seeing a brief period of wet snow prior to changing over to a cold rain. Accumulations may be a slushy coating to an inch (mainly on grass)… before changing over to rain. Areas north of I-84 have the better odds of seeing a period of wet snow… but we will continue to fine tune the forecast as we get closer.
 
CATSKILLS: The best chance for accumulating snow is going to be in the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley. The Catskills could see several inches of snow before the temperatures climb above freezing.
 
We will be closely watching this system, and have updates regularly as we get closer.
-Bill

Sunday Discussion : Early taste of Winter’s Chill to Start the Week

As we move into mid November, a crisp Canadian air mass has slid into the Northeast. It’s brought our first real taste of early winter temperatures. Highs on Sunday struggled into the low and mid 40s, a good 10° below average for this time of year. The sun will set Sunday evening, and temperatures will quickly tumble near the freezing mark shortly after dark. Temperatures will fall into the 20s before midnight and hold there until after sunrise on Monday. Overnight lows in the mid 20s are expected across the valley… with some colder spots possible, especially in the Catskills.
Then we will start the work week off quiet and cold, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s under a mix of clouds and sunshine. A passing system in southern Canada could spread a few spotty rain or wet snow showers in the Catskills. Otherwise, the weather this week will remain quiet and chilly until Friday, when an approaching trough will bring the chance for showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Something we’ll track as we go through the work week.
 
Be sure to bundle up heading out to work and school Monday morning. We hope everyone has a great start to the week!
 
-Bill

Touch of Winter across higher Terrain

Cold air advection continues to make its self known with gusty NW winds over the last several hours and into this morning. Yesterday’s mild temps have been replaced with much more season temps across the region for those waking up this morning. The winds will begin to die down by mid day, but the arrival of colder air will help set the stage for parts of the region to see some wintry weather overnight tonight and into Thursday AM.

The next system will spread precipitation across our region late tonight and into tomorrow AM, it will also bring the return of gusty winds, especially across the higher terrain. While precipitation may start as a burst of snow and sleet across northern parts of the region and some of the hillier terrain it will quickly turn to over to rain, the exception will be across the higher terrain of the Catskills.

Above 2000’ snow and sleet will persist a bit longer with up to an inch of snow and sleet possible. Surfaces are still quite warm, so any frozen precip that falls across the lower elevations is not likely to impact paved surfaces during its brief tenure. Across the highest terrain some slick spots are possible as both air temps and longer duration of potential winter weather may overcome warm surfaces, especially less traveled and elevated roadways. Warm air will eventually raid all parts of the region and turn precipitation over to rain in the higher elevations by mid morning.

Precipitation mostly in the form of rain will end from west to east around mid day Thursday. Colder air will begin to filter back into the region but temps will likely remain above freezing overnight Thursday except in the highest elevations. The colder air mass will take hold for the weekend and linger into the middle of next week with some slight below normal temps across the region, a bounce back seems likely by the close of next week.

Have a great day and stay tuned for more.

-Alex

Sunday’s Weather Discussion 11/5/23

Our first Sunday of November looks pretty nice with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to near 60°. A chilly Sunday night with mostly clear skies, temps should fall back into the mid 30s. Monday looks quiet as well, with a mix of clouds and sun… and highs in the 50s.
 
A storm in southern Canada will slide east Monday night into Tuesday. The bulk of the storm should remain to our north, but a few scattered showers are possible in the Catskills and upper Hudson Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. The SW flow will briefly warm things up into the low & mid 60s on Tuesday, before the chilly air slides back into the region for Wednesday.
 
A rather calm start to the month of November. We’ll keep our eye out for any signs of that changing. Have a great Sunday!
 
-Bill

Wednesday Discussion : ** Hard Freeze Expected Tonight **

There are no watches or warnings currently in place for the Hudson Valley, but that does not change the fact that we are expecting the coldest night of the season so far. Winds will die down, and mostly clear skies will allow for maximum radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures in the low to mid 40s this afternoon will quickly fall into the mid 30s after sunset. By midnight, most of the region will be at or below 32° (except possibly parts of Rockland & Westchester counties). Overnight lows region wide should be between 25° and 30°… with the Catskills and coldest spots dipping into the low to mid 20s!
 
With calm winds, the entire region is likely to experience a hard freeze, bringing a formal end to the growing season. The National Weather Service may not issue watches or warnings, because many areas may have already had a frost. That said, we wanted to emphasize the cold air, and make sure everyone is aware of the likelihood of a hard frost/freeze. For those who may be curious about the difference between a frost & freeze:
FROST : A frost occurs when temperatures drop between 32 to 37 degrees for an extended period. Usually, this will cause damage to more sensitive plants. However, if proper precautions are taken such as covering up plants, prospects of survival are good.
FREEZE : A freeze happens when temperatures fall below 32 degrees for more than four hours. This event usually marks the end of the growing season, but some hardy plants can still survive.
 
The first hard freeze of the season is usually a clear sign that the seasons are changing. For tonight and the next couple days… winter will certainly be in the air.
 
-Bill

Monday Discussion : 11am Radar Update


A soggy start to the work week, as the radar shows a large area of rain streaming from SW to NE. The majority of the rain is north of the Hudson Valley. The northern half of our viewing area is seeing the areas of steady rain push through, while the SE corner of the valley is mainly dry at this hour. The frontal boundary will continue to push SE today, and that will cause the rain showers to push further south as well. However the back edge of the steady showers may push through the region by mid afternoon (between 1pm and 4pm). So we should begin to dry out as we head into the evening commute.

NW winds will become quite gusty this afternoon… 20 to 30mph at times. That will be a brisk reminder of the colder air infiltrating the Hudson Valley. Rain showers will taper off this evening, and temps will drop into the mid 30s before sunrise on Tuesday. A chilly Halloween shaping up, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, but with relatively light winds. Trick-or-treat weather looks dry and chilly, with temps in the low to mid 40s between 5pm and 8pm.

Stay dry Hudson Valley!

Weekend Outlook : Beautiful Start… Chilly & Raw Finish

The eastern US has been enjoying a massive ridge of high pressure over the past few days. Afternoon highs in the 70s… a solid 10 to 20 degrees above average. We’ll have one more day of late summer warmth on Saturday.
SATURDAY… Sunshine will mix with increasing high clouds. An isolated rain shower can’t be ruled out, but almost everyone will remain dry on Saturday. Highs are expected to be between 75° and 80° across the Hudson Valley! Fantastic weather for anyone with outdoor plans.
SUNDAY… Unfortunately, the cold front will begin sinking further south, and push an area of rain showers into the Hudson Valley and northeast on Sunday. Scattered showers are likely beginning early Sunday morning, and the threat of scattered rain showers will stick with us into late Monday afternoon. We expect between 0.25″ and 0.75″ of rain on average between the 2 days. In addition, it will be MUCH chillier. Highs on Sunday likely in the low to mid 50s. That’s about 20 to 25 degrees colder than the day before. A HUGE change… and an unsettled end to the weekend.
TRICK-OR-TREAT PREVIEW: Partly cloudy and cold! Temps between 40° and 45° between 5pm and 8pm on Tuesday.
 
So we likely have a dry Halloween, but turning much colder. Highs on Tuesday only in the 40s. And overnight lows in the 30s Monday night, and near 30° Tuesday night. So our first hard freeze of the season is likely as we turn the calendar from October to November.

Wednesday Discussion : Beautiful Late October Weather

A massive ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the country is translating into some beautiful weather across the northeast and Hudson Valley.
For Wednesday, Thursday and Friday… we’ll see mostly sunny skies, and very warm conditions. Highs each day will be in the 70s across the valley. Wednesday starts off right around 70°, or the low 70s… and then by Thursday and Friday, the mid 70s are likely across the region.
With temperatures between 15° and 20° above average, we have a beautiful few days ahead… hopefully you can take advantage!

Monday Discussion : First Frost Possible Tonight in Some Areas

The chilly air mass that brought us the gusty winds and chilly temperatures will give way this week to a much warmer air mass. Temps this week will climb into the 70s across the Hudson Valley! But before that happens… we may have enough cold air holding on in the northeast to give some areas their first frost of the season.
 
With the chilly air still in place… winds will die down this evening, and with mostly clear skies and calm winds… overnight low temperatures will drop into the 30s across the valley. It’s possible that not everyone sees a frost, because we may see some clouds after midnight that could keep temps a few degrees warmer… but we feel a first frost is possible across many areas. This temperatures forecast map from the NAM model drops temps below freezing in some areas… and there you could see a hard freeze. But with Poughkeepsie, Newburgh and Montgomery all coming in between 32° and 37°… it’s definitely possible for the sheltered valleys to see their first frost. Anyone with sensitive plants may want to take appropriate precautions… but we are late in the season, and this is usually about the time of year where we see our first frost in the Hudson Valley.
 
We’ll try to share updates later today, and pass along any Frost Advisories if they are issued. Have a great Monday!
-Bill