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Saturday Discussion : Winter’s Frosty Grip

While many people would like to be getting ready for spring, and doing springtime activities, the weather unfortunately has different ideas…

High temperatures this time of year should be averaging in the upper 50s in the Poughkeepsie area.  But instead we are stuck with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s across the Hudson Valley.  Most of us will see temps top out in the low 40s, with temps struggling to reach the mid 30s in the Catskills.

The good news we suppose, is that the storm that we were watching for Saturday really never got its act together.  An area of disturbance will push off the east coast late on Saturday, and move harmlessly out to sea.  So at least we only have the cold to deal with, and not snow as well.

The cold will be with us through the weekend… and into this coming week.  But there is good news on the horizon.  If you can tough out the next 5 or 6 days… if you can suffer through the cold… we could be talking about highs in the 70s by this time next week.  Yes… temperatures in the 70s… here… in the Hudson Valley.  But not until next weekend.  But at the very least… it’s a sign that winter is on its last legs, and that spring will eventually arrive.

Hang in there, Hudson Valley… another ugly weekend in store.  Bundle up!

Friday Discussion : April Slush

It’s April…
Now, that may seem obvious, but the weather pattern has been extremely cold, with threats of snow showing up left and right on computer guidance.  So when we say that “It’s April”… it shouldn’t surprise us, or anyone else… that snow threats can literally melt before our eyes.

We’ve got a low pressure in southern Canada, that will move eastward on Friday.  That will drag a warm front northeast, through the Hudson Valley.  Temps will start out cold on Friday… in the upper 20s to low 30s.  But it looks like the precipitation will be a tad bit slower arriving in the Hudson Valley… reaching us between 7am and 11am.

The problem… when talking about snow in April… is that timing is EVERYTHING.  If this moisture arrived before sunrise, it would fall as wet snow everywhere.  However, in early April… it’s just too warm… and even on a very cold day, temps will push up near 40° in the valley.   This will cause the wet snow to mix with rain showers in most locations… and where it does snow, it will likely melt on contact with all surfaces (leaving maybe some slush on grassy spots).

You can see that even the snow map is detecting the warmth in the valley…. with no accumulation showing in Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Kingston.  But if you go up in elevation, to Monticello… a half inch to an inch is showing up.  Then if you go up even higher in elevation… it’s detecting 2 or 3 inches of wet snow.

So in summary… it’s April, and it is VERY cold… but unless everything lines up perfectly, it’s too warm for anything other than a slushy mix of wet snow and rain.  So grab the umbrella, and coat… a cold, sloppy, slushy Friday may be in store, depending on where you live.

Saturday Looking Clear

In addition to the timing and temperature not being right for Friday’s wet snow threat… Saturday’s snow threat has all but evaporated as well.  The threat was hinging on a frontal boundary stalling just to our south… and a wave of low pressure riding up along it.  However as you can see in the GIF below, the boundary is all but certainly going to be further south, and any storm will ride out to sea…

RADAR SIMULATION:
FRIDAY 8PM – SUNDAY 2AM

Notice that as the cold front moves through late Friday night, any rain showers could change over to wet snow before exiting the area to our south.  Once the front passes to our south… the wave of low pressure is far too late and too far south, to be any impact on the Hudson Valley.

We can’t let our guard completely down… but almost all guidance supports the idea shown above.  Meaning that the Hudson Valley should be in the clear on Saturday.  So just like that… in about 12 to 24 hours, two snow threats melt right before our eyes.

We’ll have more updates… but it’s April, and the Friday snow event was never projected to be more than a nuisance, and the Saturday event was about a 50/50 shot.  Maybe these snow threats melting before our eyes is a sign… a sign that winter may be on it’s last legs.

Have a great Friday.

Thursday Discussion : Bitter Wind and Snow Threats… in April

Our weather is really getting on the nerves of many residents at this point.  With the calendar reading April, many people are ready for some actual spring time weather… but that is not what Mother Nature has in store for us.  Instead… Thursday will feel every bit like the heart of winter.

These are your projected HIGH temperatures across the Hudson Valley on Thursday.  Temperatures will struggle just to climb out of the 30s, and reach the 40° mark.  However… this is only part of the story.  Factor in a persistent NW wind at 10 to 15mph, that will gust upward of 25mph at times… and this is what it will FEEL like across the region on Thursday.

That’s correct… your eyes don’t deceive you.  The ‘Real Feel’ temperatures for the middle of the afternoon on Thursday, will be in the low to mid 30s across the Hudson Valley.  Head up into the Catskills, and you’re going to feel like it’s the mid 20s.

To put this in perspective, the typical high temperatures for mid January are in the mid 30s… so the fact that it will feel that cold during the afternoon of April 5th… its pretty incredible.  When you stack up the high temperatures we expect to see on Thursday, against what is “normal” for this time of year… it’s roughly 15 degrees below average…

Winter just won’t go away.

MULTIPLE SNOW THREATS?

It’s bad enough that it will feel like the middle of winter… but what the heck, maybe it will look like the middle of winter as well.  We have 2 separate chances for snow in the coming 3 days… as hard as that is to believe.  The first, is a small shot of snow that we could see near sunrise on Friday…

A warm front will push into the region, around a storm system in southern Canada.  As it generates some warm air overrunning cold air at the surface… some light to moderate wet snow could develop in the Hudson Valley around the Friday AM commute.  Similar in some ways to the snow from Monday… the timing could be a bit problematic… just in time for the AM commute.  But this snow event will be different than Monday in several ways.  It’s not as widespread, and not as significant.  So a slushy coating to 2 inches could fall… but it looks like that is mainly on grassy surfaces.  We’ll focus on the details Thursday afternoon/evening, as we get closer to the event.

Then there is the weekend storm that everyone has had their eyes on… and with good reason.  That storm in southern Canada from Friday moves east, and drags a cold front behind it.  That frontal boundary sets up to our south, and a low pressure system develops along it.  That band of precipitation then moves northeast… and depending on the storm track, possibly spreads snow into the Hudson Valley…

Now, this image is just one possible solution.  If the storm tracks further south, like the bottom arrow shows… the storm stays mainly to our south, and our area seas little if any impact… just a cold, winter like day on Saturday.  However… if the storm takes the further north track, it would push snow into the Hudson Valley on Saturday… and we could see several inches of wet snow.

Now, this is roughly 48 to 72 hours away at this point… so we need to watch this system.  But the trend has been for the data to bring it further and further north… similar to what we saw the computer guidance do with the Monday snow event.  So there is good reason to believe that snow may be on the menu for Saturday.  The timing would be early morning into early Afternoon it seems.

Stick with us for more updates as we get closer.  There is a lot to focus on in the coming days.

Wednesday Discussion : High Winds & Mid Day Rain

The chill across the Hudson Valley should be quickly eroded Wednesday morning.  A STRONG southerly wind will usher warmer air up into the region… and temps will quickly rise from the 30s & low 40s, into the 50s and even low 60s by late morning on Wednesday.

So those strong southerly breezes will warm things up rather nicely out ahead of the cold front.  That cold front arrives mid day, and it could pack a punch as it moves through…

A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along the front as it moves east.  This could lead to a few locally heavy downpours, strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts, and even a few rumbles of thunder.  The timing on this looks to be an hour or two on either side of 12pm… so be alert to the potential.

The winds will continue to be very gusty both before and after the passage of the cold front.  So even while the temperatures are tumbling during the afternoon… back into the 50s and 40s… it will be very windy at times…

The winds could gust into the 40s… possibly near 50mph in one or two locations of the Hudson Valley.  But the strongest wind gusts appear likely to remain up the Catskills, where gusts could approach 60mph in spots.  As a result, we are concerned about the potential for some down trees and power lines Wednesday afternoon… and possibly some power outages.  We’re hopeful that the winds won’t really reach their maximum potential… but we’ll monitor the situation as it gets closer.

The powerful winds will usher in an unseasonable chill to the Hudson Valley for Thursday… as temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 30s!  Highs only near 40° on Thursday, when temps should be in the mid 50s this time of year… make for temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below average!

With a BITTER wind out of the northwest, it’s going to feel even colder on Thursday, with wind chills possibly in the upper 20s to low 30s!  It will feel like the dead of winter on Thursday… and it’s April 5th.  Bundle up… winter is not leaving without breaking everything on the shelves.

Tuesday Evening Discussion : Soggy Story – Windy Wednesday

After a snowy Monday… Tuesday has followed with a cold, raw, rainy day.  A warm front is approaching the region, and out ahead of it… was a good batch of rain.  A soaking rain fell for a few hours during the middle of the day on Tuesday, with temperatures pinned in the 30s.  That made for quite a raw day in the Hudson Valley.

As we move through the night, we’ll see scattered rain showers and areas of drizzle move into the Hudson Valley.  Winds will be rather calm, so expect areas of patchy dense fog to also develop.  Temperatures will hold in the 30s for a while, before a southerly wind begins to increase overnight.  That southerly wind will usher warmer air up into the region… and temps will quickly rise from the 30s, into the 50s and even low 60s by early morning on Wednesday.

So those strong southerly breezes will warm things up rather nicely out ahead of the cold front.  That cold front arrives mid day, and it could pack a punch as it moves through…

A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along the front as it moves east.  This could lead to a few locally heavy downpours, strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts, and even a few rumbles of thunder.  The timing on this looks to be an hour or two on either side of 12pm… so be alert to the potential.

The winds will continue to be very gusty both before and after the passage of the cold front.  So even while the temperatures are tumbling during the afternoon… back into the 50s and 40s… it will be very windy at times…

The winds could gust into the 40s… possibly near 50mph in one or two locations of the Hudson Valley.  But the strongest wind gusts appear likely to remain up the Catskills, where gusts could approach 60mph in spots.  As a result, we are concerned about the potential for some down trees and power lines Wednesday afternoon… and possibly some power outages.  We’re hopeful that the winds won’t really reach their maximum potential… but we’ll monitor the situation as it gets closer.

Some more wild weather on the way the next 24 hours.  We’ll walk with you the whole way… Have a nice evening!

April Monday Snow : Winter Rages On

Welcome to the month of April… but there are no signs of Spring to be found anywhere…

Timing:
– 2am to 5am: Wet snow develops from west to east
– 9am to 12pm:  Wet snow tapers off from west to east

Snow Accumulation:
– Northern Hudson Valley (Zone 1, 2, N3, N4,): Coating to 3 inches
– Mid Hudson Valley (Zone S3, S4, 5, 6 & 7): 2 to 5 inches
– Lower Hudson Valley (Zone 8 & 9): 3 to 6 inches

Discussion

The storm is on the doorstep of the Hudson Valley, and everything appears to be going according to plan…

This radar image is from 1:30am, and you can see that there is a wide swath of snow that runs from the NY/PA border… all the way back to Lake Erie.  This snow will push eastward… and without regard for the calendar saying it is April… we will see the Hudson Valley turn white once more on Monday.

The snow will really come down Monday morning across the Hudson Valley… at a rate near 1″ per hour in spots.  Look at this radar simulation from our very best Hi-Resolution computer guidance.

Our first work week of April will start off with a THUMP of snow across the Hudson Valley.  Looking at this simulation, it’s hard to imagine that the snow does not begin to accumulate on roadways.  In the month of April, snow rarely accumulates on roads… but at night, if it snows heavily, it could happen.  Make sure you check the roads in your area as you begin your Monday commute, as icy spots can’t be ruled out.  The good news, is that once the sun rises on Monday… the roads will quickly improve.  The sun’s rays will warm the pavements through the snow, and melt any snow quickly during the day.

Our latest and best guidance suggests that this April snow will really impress.  As a result, we slightly bumped the accumulation expectations across the region.  Because as this snow map highlights, it might be possible that someone sees 6 inches of snow from this event (purple on this map)

Could someone in Rockland, Putnam or Westchester county see 6 or 7 inches of snow?  It’s not impossible.  So on the average… a widespread 2 to 5 inches of snow seems likely… with our northernmost areas possibly seeing a bit less than that, and our southernmost areas could possibly see 6 inches in a few spots.

The snow should taper off from west to east between 9am and 11am… but a few locations near the NY/CT border may see it hold on until as late as 12pm.  We’ll have updates on the Facebook page (and possibly on here as well), as the storm unfolds early Monday.

Winter just won’t quit.  Thanks for your support!

Sunday Discussion : Overnight Snow Expected

Due to the lateness of the season, and the fact that today is indeed April 1st… we’ll try to avoid the “April Fools” jokes with our discussion of a very REAL snow threat for Sunday night.  It’s not a major event, and most (if not all) of what falls will struggle to accumulate on paved surfaces.  But we are talking about the legitimate potential for April snow.  So here are the basics:

Timing:
– 2am to 6am: Wet snow develops from west to east
– 8am to 12pm:  Wet snow tapers off from west to east

Accumulations:
– Northern half of HV (Zone 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6): Coating to 3 inches
– Southern half of HV (Zone 7, 8 & 9): 2 to 5 inches

Discussion:

Yes… it is April Fool’s Day… but this is not a joke, though many of you will surely wish it was.  No, we do indeed have an area of low pressure pushing eastward today, through the Ohio Valley.  It will arrive in the Hudson Valley after midnight, and spread a swath of wet snow into the region.

Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s when the precipitation arrives… so the wet snow could start as a brief period of rain… especially south of I-84.  But any mix should change over to plain wet snow rather quickly.  The wet snow will fall moderately for a time from I-84 on south… and should be lighter as you go further north.

With the temperatures being warmer… and the sun angle being higher in the sky… the temperatures of roads are warmer, and most (if not all) of the snow will melt on contact with paved surfaces.  So while snow flakes will likely be flying when the sun rises on Monday… the roads in most areas will be just wet… not white.  Even so… be sure to assess the conditions where you are locally, colder spots and higher elevations may see some roadways become snow covered… especially where the snow falls heavy for a time.

But this is a very fast moving system… and by 8am, you can see that the back edge of the snow is already trying to advance into the Hudson Valley…

The snow should begin tapering off from west to east, anytime after 8am.  Most of the region should dry out by 10am… but a few snow flakes could linger on toward noon… especially in the southern HV.  By the time it’s all over… a slushy couple inches could have fallen across the region.

Areas north of I-84 will likely see a coating to 3 inches… with the locations closest to I-84 getting the highest amounts, and the areas furthest north in the Catskills seeing the lowest amounts (probably just a coating).  Areas from I-84 on south could see 2 to 4 inches of snow on average… with a few locations (mainly higher elevations) possibly seeing up to 5 inches of wet snow.

This is a fast moving system, and it only snows for about 6 hours in any location.  So there just isn’t enough time & snow to get much more than 2 to 3 or 4 inches in any location.  But the snow could come down pretty heavy for a period of time, and it should coat all unpaved surfaces pretty well.  The biggest travel headache is probably the reduced visibility that results from moderate to heavily falling snow.  But we’ll also have to watch for the potential of some snow covered roadways (especially in higher elevations).  While most of us likely only see wet roads… it IS April after all… we should never dismiss the potential for icy roads entirely.

The sun comes out by mid day on Monday, and temps will surge into the mid and upper 40s… melting almost all the snow that falls.  So you snow haters can at least have that to hold on to.  The joke is on us this April’s Fool’s Day… as we have a high probability of accumulating snowfall late tonight.  The good news, is that it isn’t a lot… it won’t snow for very long… and whatever falls, likely melts before sunset on Monday.  Have a great Sunday, everyone!

Saturday Discussion : Watching Sunday Night Snow Threat

Spring has been in the Hudson Valley for about 10 days… but only on the calendar.  The weather has refused to follow suit… holding about 2 to 4 degrees below average.  As we turn the calendar into the month of April, we don’t expect any changes in the pattern.  In fact, we’re watching a chance for a snowy April Fool’s Day joke, that many people won’t find funny.

The Weekend

Looking at the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice to be honest.

We’ll see a good deal of sunshine on Saturday, and temperatures near where we’d expect them to be for this time of year.  It won’t be a beautiful day by most standards… but it will likely feel pretty good to get sunshine and seasonable temperatures across the region.  Anyone with outdoor plans, will be rather happy with what the weather will offer.

Looking to Saturday night into Sunday… a weak frontal boundary will move into the region.  That will bring clouds into the area once again, along with the threat of a few spot rain showers.  The spotty showers will taper off on Sunday morning, and leave us with a chilly breeze for much of Sunday, under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Not a terrible early spring weekend… with Saturday looking better than Sunday.  But as we look toward Sunday night into Monday, we’ll see that winter won’t go quietly into the night.

Wave of Spring Wet Snow Possible…

A weak wave of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley Sunday night and reach the east coast by Monday morning.  Depending on the exact track of the low pressure… we could have a WHITE start to the work week.

We’ve been watching this system for a few days, and the bulk of the snow was focused south of the Hudson Valley.  But as is often the case, these systems begin to trend further north as the event gets closer… and now we are seeing a scenario where at least part of the Hudson Valley sees wet snow for the Monday morning commute.

Looking above at the futurecast radar for 8am Monday morning, a band of snow is possible anywhere from Washington DC, up through the Hudson Valley.  This latest scenario has the snow focused in the southern half of the Hudson Valley, mostly from I-84 on south.  This is quite a sizable shift north in the projected track in recent days… so we’ll have to see if this trend continues, or if the potential track shifts further south once again.

Our concern, is that the track could trend a bit further north than what we’re seeing here.  The current projection would generate a slushy coating to an inch or two across the region from I-84 on south.  But if the storm tracks another 25 to 50 miles north… it would pull a swath of 2 to 4 inches of wet snow into the Hudson Valley, just in time for the Monday morning commute.  So we need to keep focused on this event.

As you know, we’ll be watching it closely… and share any updates with you as they develop.  But for sure… winter just won’t go down without a fight.  And suffice it to say, this won’t be the last time we are talking about snow threats… as the first HALF of April continues to look cold and unsettled.

Saturday Discussion : The Chill Remains

A quiet but cold start to our weekend. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the story of the day, but our northerly flow will keep it quite cold for this time of year. Highs will struggle into the low and mid 40s. So make sure you grab your winter gear, as our cold pattern looks to last into the start of next week.

We’ll have a weak disturbance slide southward from New England overnight and spread some light snow showers in parts of the area before sunrise on Sunday. We are not expecting widespread problems, but something to watch out for in the early morning hours.

Have a nice Saturday afternoon!

Friday Outlook: Chilly but Calm

In the wake of our ‘almost snowstorm’, temperatures really warmed up on Thursday… into the mid and upper 40s… and melted almost everything in just the matter of a few hours.

Today, late winter’s chill will try and hold on for dear life, as we have high clouds filtering our sunshine. Temps will be below normal again today, as highs climb only into the low and mid 40s today.

We are watching a northerly flow try to usher in some slightly cooler temps… as well as a few snow flurries and rain sprinkles. This could briefly dampen the situation across parts of the region, especially the northern HV and Catskills. But in general we look dry and chilly today.

There was some buzz about a Sunday storm in or comments the past few days. We aren’t sure where that started, but there is no storm threat. We could see a few snow or rain showers rotate out of New England, as an ocean storm influences our weather… but there is no storm on the horizon for the next several days.

Have a great Friday!!