11am Hurricane Henri Update
Maximum Sustained Winds : 75mph
Moving : NNE 14mph
Maximum Wind Gusts : 86mph
Pressure : 995mb (29.41in)
For the first time, Henri is a Hurricane. The intensification has been expected, although much later than originally projected a day or two ago. Whether that’s good news or not remains to be seen. Henri will continue to track NNE and begin shifting north over the next 12 hours, before likely trending NNW overnight.
Computer guidance remains VERY divided on the track of Henri. For example, in the livestream last night we talked about how the evening NAM model had trended about 25miles east. Well, then the overnight run of the NAM shifted west about 50 miles…. and now the morning run of the NAM shifted back east by over 50 miles… now further east than the position it was in last night. So the models are going to struggle greatly with exactly where Henri will make landfall. But here is what we are expecting based on current guidance.
– Outer rain bands begin to rotate in between 7am and 12pm
– NNE Winds increase 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph.
– Periods of rain, heavy at times, especially east of Hudson River
– NNE Winds 15 to 30mph, gusts 30 to 50mph
– Periods of rain and wind… heavy at times
– Winds 10 to 20mph, gusts over 30mph
The worst conditions are likely during the afternoon on Sunday, but to emphasize… “Forecast may change based on new data”. For now, we are not updating our Stormpact map… but be advised, that we are considering increasing the IMPACT from moderate to high, and possibly raising OUTAGES from scattered to widespread. It all has to do with the combination of potentially flooding rains, and wind gusts over 45mph. If the westward track becomes more likely, we will increase the Stormpact graphic.
We will share more updates as we go through the afternoon… but do not expect the guidance to suddenly lock in on the track and landfall position of Henri. Expect the unexpected with this system, as it wobbles up the east coast. Make sure you continue to prepare for the arrival of Henri, and the possibility of being without power for a couple days if the worst of Henri drives into the Hudson Valley.