Wednesday Discussion : Heat, Humidity & Sct Afternoon T’storms

Another hot day with more humidity than yesterday is expected today across the Hudson Valley. Highs in the upper 80s, approaching 90° along with dew points in the low 70s will result in an uncomfortable air mass. Heat indexes will range anywhere between 90-95° in valley locations. The Catskills will remain slightly cooler with highs in the mid-80s.

Below are projected heat indexes at 4 pm today:

After a few showers late last night into early this morning, breaks of sunshine are expected, which will help further destabilize an already buoyant atmosphere, setting the stage for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds being the main threats. Current model guidance suggests storms will begin to move into western locations between 3-5 pm and will evolve eastward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. While not everyone will experience severe weather today, always remember to stay weather aware.

Unfortunately, mugginess and unsettled weather will continue on Thursday, with another chance of afternoon/evening storms.

Below is a simulated radar for this afternoon/evening (1-11 pm):

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook:

 

Tuesday Discussion : More Heat, Slightly Less Humidity

We’re in what is statistically the hottest time of the year… so we guess it should come as no surprise that every day is right around 90°. Tuesday looks to be another classic summer day, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and afternoon highs around 90°. Tonight, we’ll see clouds increase… and scattered showers and thundershowers may be possible after midnight, lasting into the morning hours on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon once again looks to see highs in the mid to upper 80s, with high humidity. That could set the stage for late afternoon and evening T-Storms on Wednesday.
 
Hope everyone finds a good way to beat the heat. Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Uncomfortable Humidity Increases

The humidity is the highest it’s been with this heat wave so far… and so with temperatures at lunch time ‘only’ in the mid to upper 80s… the dew points in the low to mid 70s are making for ‘real feel’ heat index values in the mid and upper 90s through the valley. It’s a bit cooler in the hills and Catskills, but be sure to use caution through the afternoon… as the heat and humidity will be with us through the day.

Sunday Discussion : Heat Advisory in Effect

…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT…
…FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8PM EDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to 103 expected.
* WHERE…Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.
* WHEN…From noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS…High temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
Instructions: Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
 
HVW Commentary:
Not too much to add to the NWS Heat Advisory. We discussed this heat wave earlier in the week, and again on Friday… and now it’s here. Make sure to use considerable caution. This kind of heat can lead to heat exhaustion pretty rapidly if you’re not properly hydrated and taking proper breaks from rigorous activity. This will be the big story the next 2 days… with a small chance (less than 30%) of a late day T-storm to provide temporary relief.

Weekend Outlook : The Heat is On!

After a week of weather that saw some instability over the northeast, with clouds and drizzle starting our Friday off.  But as we look over the next few days, and into next week… the heat will be surging into the northeast, and Hudson Valley.

500mb Pattern (Jet Stream) – Friday through Thursday

You can see the large area of orange indicating a huge ridge of high pressure over the eastern US.  That will allow the heat to build quickly starting on Saturday.  The good news for Saturday, is that while we’ll see temps near 90° in the afternoon… the humidity levels should not be too oppressive.  However, that changes on Sunday, as humidity levels begin to elevate, along with the rising heat.  Sunday’s afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 90s… and here are the “real-feel” heat index values for Sunday.

The heat persists into Monday to start the work week, with highs projected in the low 90s once more.  But what will be noticeably worse on Monday, is the humidity.  Real feel temps will likely surge into the upper 90s on Monday, if the humidity projections are currently accurate.  We will keep an eye on that for another day or so… but the chance of a Monday high temperature of 92° with a heat index of 100° is a real possibility.  Make sure you plan for an oppressive Monday afternoon.

The heat and humidity will last into the work week, however we could get lucky Monday afternoon with a front pushing through.  That could give some heat relieving thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening… and then pull humidity levels down for the middle of the work week.  Even so… afternoon highs through mid week are likely to be in the upper 80s to near 90°.

It’s summer time… and for the next 7 days, it’s likely to feel every bit the middle of summer.  Have a great weekend, and be sure to drink plenty of water, and take breaks from the direct sun.  Heat exhaustion will be a possibility over the weekend if you don’t take care of yourself… so use caution and take it a little slow.

Tuesday Discussion : Seasonable Temps and Sun

Seasonably comfortable summer heat for the statistically hottest time of the year. A northwest wind will keep humidity in check, and keep temperatures from spiking much above the low 80s. A fine summer day for any activities you might have planned.
 
As we look to the remainder of the week, the wind shifts to the east and southeast, and that will allow more clouds and humidity into the picture for the 2nd half of the week. So while we don’t anticipate widespread rainfall… the chances for clouds and spotty rain showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday, in advance of what could be a pretty notable heat wave from Saturday through at least Monday of next week. A big ridge of high pressure will set up over the eastern US, and could allow for high heat and humidity, with temps in the mid 90s, and real feel temps near 100°. Something we’ll have to watch as we get closer for better details… but a hot weekend appears likely for the northeast and Hudson Valley.
 
Have a great Tuesday

Saturday Discussion : Nature Never Stops

Yesterday was an eventful day across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Tropical storm Fay made landfall just north of Atlantic City, New Jersey with winds of 50 mph. Interestingly, Fay made landfall within miles of the same location as Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012). Coastal portions of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey took the brunt of the storm, where some locations received upwards of 5 inches of rain, resulting in widespread flooding.

The Hudson Valley received anywhere between 1-3 inches of rain, with locations west of the Hudson River generally receiving the highest totals. Fortunately, due to previously dry conditions, most Hudson Valley reservoirs were able to handle the water, resulting in only minimal flooding.

As we all know, mother nature never takes a break. Now that tropical storm Fay has moved out of our region into Canada, today will feature a severe weather threat across the Hudson Valley. Hot and humid conditions will remain along with an approaching upper-level trough approaching from the west. We will also experience the highest dew points so far this year, which will be well into the mid-70s. ‘Real feels’ will be well into the mid-90s in many locations, which has prompted heat advisories for the mid-Hudson Valley. Combined, this will result in the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Current model guidance suggests storms will develop between 1-4 pm and will persist through sunset. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Also, with the ground already saturated from yesterday’s rainfall, isolated flash flooding may become a concern with any stronger storm.

Simulated radar for this afternoon & evening:

Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook:

Friday Discussion : Here Comes Fay

As of 11am on Friday, Tropical Storm Fay has maximum sustained winds of 60mph, and it’s heading for the Hudson Valley…

The radar loop over the past hour or so paints a soggy picture for the Hudson Valley, as Tropical Storm Fay’s outer rain bands move into the lower Hudson Valley.

Radar Loop : 10am – 11:45am

Some soaking rainfall is on the way for the afternoon and evening hours, as Fay pushes NNE along the coastline this afternoon and evening.   Tropical Storm Fay has maximum winds of 60mph, but the real story for this system is the rainfall totals.  The gusty winds will be focused south and east of the Hudson Valley… although gusts over 20mph can’t be ruled out, the primary threat from this system will be for Flash Flooding due to locally heavy rainfall amounts.  As such, a “Flash Flood Watch” is issued for the entire region.  So here is how we anticipate the radar playing out over the next 18 hours…

Futurecast Radar : 12pm Fri – 8am Sat

Rainfall should begin between 12pm and 4pm from south to north.  Heaviest rainfall is projected between 2pm and 8pm in general, as the heaviest bands rotate into the Hudson Valley at that point.  As we move into Friday night, the center of rotation will move up the Hudson River valley, and that will push the widespread soaking rain north of the region, but scattered showers and downpours will rotate around on the back side of the system.  That will keep the threat for rain in place until Sunrise on Saturday.  As you see, the futurecast loop ends at 8am… and other than a spot shower in the region, the Hudson Valley is dried out by Saturday Morning.

One of the concerns we’ve heard is regarding the winds.  Any time you mention a Tropical Storm… strong (potentially damaging) winds are a concern.  The good news, is that will not be the case for Fay.  She’s a relatively weak system, and not well organized.  Here are the maximum projected wind gusts for the entire storm…

What IS a concern, however… will be flash flooding due to heavy rainfall.  Here’s a projection of the total rainfall from Tropical Storm Fay…

You can see that the Hudson Valley is projected to be the focal point for heaviest rain.  Considering the flash flooding that we saw in parts of the region the other day, another 1 to 3 inches… with locally up to 5 inches possible… flash flooding will be a very real concern around the region Friday afternoon and night.  If you’re in a flood prone area, or you saw flash flooding earlier this week… you’ll want to be on alert as the heavier rains push in today.

We’ll share updates as we go through the afternoon and evening.  Stay dry everyone!

 

Thursday Discussion : Tropical System… Fay?

Model guidance is coming to an agreement that our region will experience impacts from a tropical or subtropical system on Friday & Saturday. As of this morning, the center of low pressure is located roughly 60 miles offshore of Wilmington, North Carolina. As the system tracks northward near or just offshore of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, the National Hurricane Center has given it an 80% chance of development into a tropical cyclone. If development occurs, it will be named Fay. Regardless of reaching name criteria, this system will bring a widespread heavy rainfall event from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Rainfall will overspread the region from south to north during the early afternoon hours on Friday and will persist through Saturday morning.

Current visible satellite view, located offshore of North Carolina:

As seen on visible satellite, the center of low pressure is far west of any major convection. If this center reforms closer to thunderstorm development, tropical cyclone status could be reached later today/tonight.

Scenario (NAM 3km):

As observed in the latest NAM 3km model run, the center of low pressure moves inland over the Delmarva Peninsula and tracks northward through New Jersey or extreme eastern Pennsylvania. While models like this one prefer an inland track, others, such as the NAM 12km, show the center remaining slightly off the New Jersey coastline. Regardless of its track, the Hudson Valley will see a widespread soaker.

Rainfall totals:

A widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected for the Hudson Valley. This will result in a flash flood threat for the entire region, especially the Catskills. Along with heavy rainfall, gusty winds are possible throughout the Hudson Valley, especially coastal regions. Nonetheless, nor’easter-like conditions are expected on Friday & Saturday. Specific details will be fine-tuned as we go into this evening/Friday morning.

Monday Midday Discussion : Heat, Humidity, & Afternoon T’storms

Another hot summer day with increasing humidity will be the story again today. These conditions along with an approaching backdoor cold front and shortwave trough will result in the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially in the southern half of the Hudson Valley, where current model guidance suggests the most coverage. Nonetheless, the entire Hudson Valley should stay weather aware of a pop-up afternoon storm.

Storms will begin to form in northeast Pennsylvania between 1-3 pm. As storms track ESE, some will likely make their way into the lower Hudson Valley as the afternoon progresses.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Hudson Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The main threats being small hail, strong gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to isolated flash flooding in low lying areas.

Below is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook along with a simulated radar for this afternoon.