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Final Snowstorm Forecast : Near Miss Nor’easter

Winter weather haters, thank your lucky stars… because roughly 50 to 75 miles makes all the difference between a nor’easter near miss… and a coastal storm clobbering.

Timing:
– After 6pm : Scattered snow showers develop, especially in Catskills
– 10pm to 2am : Snow develops from south to north
– 11pm to 9am : Best chance for steady snow.
– 10am to 2pm : Snow or snow showers taper from west to east
– 2pm to 8pm : Scattered snow showers & squalls possible (especially in the Catskills)

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Taconics (Zone 1, 2 & 4): 5 to 8 inches
– Majority of Hudson Valley (Zone 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9) 2 to 5 inches

Discussion:

I apologize for the delay in the discussion being completed.  Non weather related responsibilities delayed the post, but enough time lost already, lets dive in.  The plus side of a delay, is that we have more information now than we had a couple hours ago.  The storm is looking potentially snowier than initially expected, as the western edge of the snow shield tries to push its way back into the Hudson Valley.

So here’s where we are as of late night…

We’re going to go through simulated radars in a moment, but this radar image is the 1st sign that the eastern half of the Hudson Valley could end up doing a bit better than forecasted in terms of snow totals.  Outlined in black is a healthy snow band, that has snowfall rates of 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour within it.  It’s early… but this looks likely to be the western edge of the heavier snow shield.  As the storm continues, this band of snow will likely continue rotating westward… before stalling out somewhere over the Hudson Valley.

This first band of snow will moisten the atmosphere westward into the Hudson Valley, and then additional snow bands will rotate westward in behind it.  This band will be important in terms of accumulations, because it will likely show us where the heaviest snow totals will be.  From this band, and points east… are most likely to reach the forecasted snow amounts… and have the best chance to overachieve in terms of snow totals.  Because as we look forward, you’ll see that as this storm progresses forward, the snow shield will pivot over the Hudson Valley, and so where this band reaches… it will snow steadily… and likely continue to snow steadily, through the morning on Thursday.

So as we approach sunrise on Tuesday, you’ll notice that the storm is a powerful 970mb, and if this storm was 50 miles further west, the Hudson Valley would be in for a major storm.  With that said… the close up of the Hudson Valley shows moderate snows across the entire region, with the heaviest snows expected as you go further south and east.  But as we mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, that first heavier snow band rotating through will add a bit of a wild card to where the heavier snows will be with this system.  We’ll have to watch and see just where the heavier bands set up.

As we move through the morning, the snow will continue to fall light to moderately… possibly even heavy for short periods in the eastern Hudson Valley.  This snow should be heavy enough to keep road conditions rather slick and snow covered in many cases. We’ll have to see how much snow cover we get on paved surfaces… with temperatures rather close to freezing.  The AM commute could be a bit dicey as a result.

As the morning progresses, the sun will get higher in the sky… and the snow will begin to struggle to stick to the roads.  In mid March, the snow needs to fall quite hard to stick to the roads during the daylight hours.  We’re not sure that it will fall hard enough to keep the roads snow covered on Tuesday… but it’s best to play it safe, and expect snow covered roadways.  Allow extra time for your travel on Tuesday morning… especially as you go further east (where it will snow harder), and also up in elevation (where it is colder).

The snow is likely to last into the afternoon, and as we mentioned… the location of the back edge of the snow is important, because it could lead to an extended period of light to moderate snow in the HV through the afternoon…

You’ll notice that while this storm really cranks up and moves out to sea… the snow potentially could linger in the Hudson Valley into mid Afternoon.  Snow rates would be lighter most likely, and roads would likely be just wet by this point (but wait and see, we can’t assume it will be fine)… but snow could continue to accumulate on grass and unpaved surfaces.

When all is said and done… and the snow tapers off from SW to NE between 1pm and 6pm (you’ll notice it hangs on longer in the NE Hudson Valley)… snowfall amounts in the region should average 3 to 6 inches.  However… the eastern Hudson Valley, especially east of the Hudson River and north of I-84… could see 5 to 8 inches.  If the snow bands really wrap up around this storm… we could see some areas over-achieve on snow totals.  But based on current data, a widespread 2 to 5… or 3 to 6 inches look good.

We’ll have to see if we have to tweak the snowfall amounts up an inch or two, based on how these snow bands perform… which is all part of now-casting, which we’ll continue to do through the storm on Tuesday.

Be safe… and thank you for your continued support!

Preliminary Snow Forecast : Monday Night – Tuesday

Another tricky forecast ahead of us, with a coastal storm that will develop into a monster.  The trouble with monsters, is that they are always full of surprises.  And considering our location in relation to the center of the storm… things could get interesting late Monday night and Tuesday.  We’ll explain more in a minute, but lets summarize the situation as it stands now:

Timing:
– After 6pm : Snow showers possible, especially in Catskills
– 12am to 6am : Light snow possible, especially east of Hudson River
– 6am to 12pm : Best chance for steady snow… highest amounts east.
– 12pm to 4pm : Snow or snow showers taper from west to east

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Taconics (Zone 1, 2 & 4): 3 to 6 inches
– Majority of Hudson Valley (Zone 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9) Coating to 3 inches

Discussion:

Even as we post this preliminary snowfall forecast, there is computer model chaos taking place behind the scenes.  Whenever you have one of these potent costal storms developing, the guidance really struggles to pinpoint where the low pressure center will develop, and where it will track.

This storm likely deepens into a powerful storm… but the storm is too far off shore to have any real impacts on our area.  It is likely that some light snow showers get thrown well NW of the storm, likely into the Catskills.  But that’s because of uplifting, and higher elevations… otherwise, the real impact from this storm is off shore.

The primary impacts are likely to be periods of light to at times moderate snow.  There could be a pocket of heavier  snow… but in general a light snow event.  The main chance for light snow is from midnight tonight, through noon on Tuesday.  Most accumulations will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches of snow, but as you go up in elevation, 3 to 6 inches can’t be ruled out.  We will need to monitor the situation for accumulations, and see if the storm’s track looks different, or if there is any potential for great snow amounts.

So as of now… this looks like a close call, but a near miss… in terms of being the 3rd major impacting storm in the Hudson Valley over the last 10 days.  But you’ll notice on the graphic above, that there’s a 20% chance the storm tracks further to the west.  After everything we’ve seen in the past 10 days, we just can’t write off the possibility of the storm unexpectedly taking a more western track.  If that should happen… and it’s a very low probability that it will… we would have to drastically increase our snowfall amounts.  Based on everything we have at this moment… that appears quite unlikely.

So we’ll continue to track things through the day Monday, and we’ll try to share any changes… or just let you know that everything appears on track.  Have a great Monday!

Sunday Outlook : Coastal Concerns

After 2 major nor’easters inside of a week, the worries about the coming storm for Monday night and into Tuesday started very early.  We downplayed the storm initially, because the storm wasn’t looking like a major threat… with the storm appearing suppressed out to sea on most of the guidance.  We stressed that while only about a 25% chance at the time… these things need to be monitored closely, because it was roughly 5 days away at the time.  Well… in the weather forecasting world… there’s sort of an unofficial saying with regards to these kind of systems, and that is “they always trend north”.  Well, that cliché has held true once more… and we need to talk about the likelihood of some snow on Monday night and Tuesday.

Now… first off, the period of concern has shifted, from Monday… to Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s because this system is projected to slow down a bit, and that slowing is also going to give room for the storm to turn north.

You can see that the storm is now projecting to develop much closer to the coast than what we were seeing just a day or two ago.  That’s likely because the storm is moving slower, so rather than be pushed out to sea by the northern jet stream… it’s allowing it to be captured, and pulled up the coast.

If the above image is accurate, it would begin snowing somewhere between 9pm and midnight most likely… but details will change as we get more information on this.  The snow looks like a general light to moderate snowfall… with the heaviest snowfall focused east of the Hudson Valley.  Still, at dark, with temperatures around freezing… snow could accumulate on all surfaces, even if it melts on roads initially.

By sunrise on Tuesday, the storm would still be impacting the Hudson Valley, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall.  Again, the heaviest snow rates would be as you go further east… so those of us east of the Hudson River would be likely to see the ugliest Tuesday morning commute based on our current information.  This scenario would allow for snow to continue falling through the morning, likely tapering around mid day on Tuesday.

By the time all is said and done, and the snow pushes to our east Tuesday afternoon… this is the simulated snow map…

We show you this map, just to highlight how much this storm is focused to our east… and that while we could be impacted… the worst conditions are certainly projected into New England.  This is NOT set in stone however, and we’ll need to watch closely to see if the storm tracks further west.

KEEP IN MIND… that our last nor’easter on Wednesday of this past week, shifted it’s track on us just as the storm was starting.  The Snowfall Recap will come out later today, and show that with no warning… we saw a large shift in the storm track… that had major implications for our snowfall forecast.  So there is PLENTY of time for this storm to shift it’s track further.  We need to watch this very closely… and we’ll have updates later today, on whether we’re seeing further changes.

Have a great day!

Saturday Outlook : Late Winter Chill

After a Friday night that featured some widespread snow showers and snow squalls… things should quiet down a bit for our Saturday.  Sure, consider us biased… but there’s just something about a harmless snow squall with half dollar sized snow flakes falling and melting harmlessly on the pavement on a seasonably chilly early March evening.  Looking up into the street light to see hundreds of flakes swirling to the ground, or night time driving in the snow… and throwing the high beams on, to make it look like you’re flying the Millennium Falcon in a Star Wars movie at light speed.  Something about the snow that just brings out the big kid in us.

Perhaps that’s why some people get so sour about a ‘busted’ snowfall forecast where the snow doesn’t accumulate the way we anticipate.  Because we’ve become giant children who are going to stomp our feet, because we want our special treat… and Mother Nature has just told us ‘no desert, it’s time for bed!”

Anyway… that was a completely unexpected digression, and not at all how I expected to start this post.  As far as our Saturday is concerned… we’ll have partly to mostly sunny skies across the valley, along with a persistent and gusty NW breeze.  Sustained winds around 10 to 15mph are expected, and gusts upwards of 25mph will really add to the late winter chill across the region.  Make sure you grab a good coat for whatever the day has in store for you.  Our friends in the Catskills could see a few flurries or a snow shower through the day… but nothing that part of the world isn’t used to for this time of year.

A cold night ahead as well, at least for early to mid March standards.  Mostly clear skies are likely along with continued light winds and overnight lows that should fall into the teens and low 20s.  Wind chills in the low teens and possibly single digits… reminding us that Winter won’t quit just yet.  The cold hangs with us for Sunday as well, with afternoon highs once again in the mid to upper 30s… which is a solid 5 to 10 degrees below average.  That sets the stage for one of the potentially colder nights we’ll see the rest of the season.  Winds are expected to die down early Monday morning, and these could be our Monday morning wake up temperatures…

Now, the Euro is picking up on the idea that snow pack will hold through the weekend in much of the Hudson Valley.. this may be true in some spots… not so true in others.  Take my house in Pine Bush for instance… we only had 7 or 8 inches to begin with, so that snow is about 60% gone now, and I don’t know if it will hold through the weekend… we’ll see.  But where they got 15 to 20 inches of wet snow… I’m sure they will be plenty of snow left over.  And where there is snow, overnight lows could drop into the single digits… thanks to a process known as radiational cooling.  That’s where the warmth of the day radiates back out into the atmosphere at night.  This process is maximized when winds are calm, skies are clear, and when there is a fresh snow pack.

The reason, is that calm winds allow the heat in the air to rise… the clear skies mean there aren’t any clouds to act like a blanket and lock in the warm air, preventing it from radiating out into space.  And the snow pack… is a bright white surface that reflects solar radiation during the day, keeping it cooler… where as the ground typically absorbs more solar radiation.  And so when night time comes, the white surface of the snow pack quickly radiates that heat back out to the atmosphere… where the ground is slower to radiate the heat back into the atmosphere.

So long story short… a COLD night could be ahead for Sunday night and Monday morning.

Finally… the Nor’easter Storm Recap… it’s not finished yet.  Quite simply, I was too tired to do it justice Friday night, and will wrap it up on Saturday.  I sincerely apologize for the delay… it’s just been an exhausting 10 day period.  But considering how many tangents I went off into on this post… I should have just finished the recap.

Oh well… keep an eye out for the recap on Saturday.  Have a great day!

Thursday Outlook : The Aftermath

In the last 7 days we’ve had 2 major nor’easters rip through the Hudson Valley.  In that time some parts of the region have seen upwards of 30 inches of snow.  We won’t fully know the details until the snow data rolls in over the next 12 to 18 hours… but make no mistake… the 17-18 winter is certainly going out with a BANG.  Everyone is already asking about the potential storm for this coming Monday… and we’re not going to even discuss it at this point… other than to say the pattern is very active, and it would not shock us if something headed our way for Monday… but it could also stay to our south, and it’s 5 full days away.  We’ll have more on the potential for Monday in a post later on Thursday or Thursday night… but right now, it’s looking like at best a 50/50 shot.

As far as Thursday’s concerned… a blustery, cold day for sure in the wake of our snowstorm.  Temps will rise above freezing, and that will help with the cleanup and snow melt.  We’ll have sunshine mixed with clouds… and a flurry or snow shower can’t be ruled out.  Highs right around 40° should do the trick.

We’ll have a detailed storm recap late Thursday or Thursday night… once all the snowfall data has been collected.  Have a great Thursday!

Final Nor’easter Forecast : Wednesday 3/7/18

Timing:
– 10pm to 2am : Light snow develops from west to east, may be scattered and of varying intensity
– 2am to 10am : Light snow continues although there may be some lull’s in the precipitation between 7am-10am
– 10am to 8pm : Moderate to Heavy snow… up to 1 to 3 inches per hour with a rumble of thunder possible
– 11pm to 4am : Snow begins to taper off from SW to NE

Impacts:

-Snowfall rates will be very impressive during the height of the storm, this will makes roads extremely treacherous if not impassible during the afternoon and into the overnight
-Winds gusting between 20-40mph will create reduced visibility and also lead to more tree and power issues
-Snow will be heavy and nature and will again lead to power grid issues

Snowfall:

– Catskills (Zone 1&2) : 18 to 24 inches
– Hudson Valley (Zones 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8) : 12 to 18 inches
– Extreme Lower HV (Zone 9) : 6 to 12 inches (possibly less if more rain mixes in)

Discussion:

The only true wildcard that remains with this system is where the heaviest mesoscale banding will setup during the peak of the storm, for that reason we cannot pinpoint where the maximum axis of heavy snowfall will occur. With the said it is possible that we will see and swath of snow outside of the Catskills (Zone 1/2) that reaches 24″ wherever the most impressive bands set up. This will for some be the largest snowstorm of the season for some, and may also make a top 10 ranking for March snowstorms if it reaches it full potential. While this system lacks some attributes of the Friday snowstorm this system has a lot of punch and will be very impactful to our region.

Low Confidence: Mixing in extreme lower HV?

Only real concerns in terms of the forecast with this system are across the southern most parts of zone 9 where we need to monitor the potential that warmer temps or dry slotting may cut back on snowfall totals here, for that reason we have went with a bit lower and more conservative forecast for that zone. On the flip side a colder solution with dynamic cooling once again playing a part would also bring this zone into the 12-18″ forecast as well, this bears watching.

More to Come…

We’ll likely add to this post a bit more shortly, so you may want to check for more info soon.  Otherwise, we’ll have additional posts in addition to this.  But long story short, by the time early afternoon hits… this could be what our weather map looks like.  A major nor’easter for the Hudson Valley for sure.

 

Preliminary Storm Forecast : Wednesday Nor’easter

The month of March can be a beast when it comes to winter storms.  The transition from the bitter chill of winter, to the mild breeze of spring, can bring a LOT of instability with it.  We saw an historic storm just 5 days ago, on Friday… and we are now staring down another major winter storm.  The phrase ‘adding insult to injury’ will be rather appropriate for some parts of the Hudson Valley.

Timing:
– 10pm to 2am : Light snow develops from west to east
– 2am to 10am : Light to moderate snow continues
– 10am to 8pm : Moderate to Heavy snow… up to 1 to 2 inches per hour
– 8pm to 12am : Snow begins to taper off, ending near midnight

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 7 to 14 inches
– Hudson Valley (All remaining zones) : 8 to 16 inches

Discussion:

Right on the heels of a monster winter storm, that still has parts of the region without power as of this forecast… we’ve got another major winter storm to contend with.  An upper level low pressure system will push southeast on Tuesday, from the upper mid-west, to the Ohio Valley.  That upper level low will help a coastal low pressure system develop in the early morning hours of Wednesday.  That storm will intensify and strengthen… pushing northward, along the east coast.

A frontal boundary out ahead of the upper level low pressure system will spread light snow into the Hudson Valley around midnight Tuesday night.  The snow will be light and even a bit scattered in nature, as the boundary won’t have a lot of moisture with it.  But the true purpose of that boundary will be to serve as the location for the coastal low to develop along shore.  With the upper level low pressure off to the west, it will shift its energy to the coast, and allow for the coastal storm to blossom Wednesday morning.

But it will take some time for that process to occur.  In the meantime, it’s likely that light snow showers will persist over the Hudson Valley during the overnight and early morning hours on Wednesday.  If the snow is light, and somewhat scattered… don’t be fooled… this is not the nor’easter, just some frontal boundary light snow out ahead of it.  As the low pressure continues to strengthen… convective bands of precipitation will set up on the north side of the low, and the low will begin to move northward.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, the front end of the convective snow banding should be making its way into the Hudson Valley.  The areas of banding are indicated by the purple shading on this map… which is indicative of snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour!  Whiteout conditions and thunder-snow are possible in these bands, as they will be like thunderstorms of snow.  Conditions will be treacherous under these bands of snow, and travel will be extremely dangerous if not impossible at times.  Along with the heavy snow, expect wind gusts over 25mph to be possible as the storm begins to wrap up and intensify.  This storm will move slowly off to the northeast, and by the evening commute, it is likely to still be snowing hard in the Hudson Valley…

As the nor’easter begins to push northeastward, and head toward Cape Cod, the western edge of the snow banding is likely to pivot over the Hudson Valley.  In short, that means instead of tapering off, it’s likely that the snow will continue through the evening commute and into the nighttime hours.  Snowfall rates could continue to be over 1 inch per hour at times.

So as you can see, this is a LONG duration event.  We are concerned that there could be power outage issues once again with this storm.  Granted, there are still parts of the area that are without power now… but this new nor’easter could cause new power outages.  While this storm won’t see a ‘fluffy’ snow… it likely won’t be quite as heavy and wet as the Friday storm.  We’re hoping that trees and power lines won’t be coated in snow quite the same in this storm, and the winds will be a bit less intense with this storm.  But with those points of optimism laid out, we are still concerned that power outages will be a problem late on Wednesday.

We’ll continue to have updates through the day on Tuesday, as well as a “Final Storm Forecast” Tuesday evening.  Be sure to check back with us often, for more updates and the latest information on what this storm may bring us.

Monday Discussion : Watching Wednesday

We’ll have a quiet but chilly start to our work week across the Hudson Valley.  Lots of sunshine and temperatures generally in the 30s to near 40° for a high on Monday.  After a chilly night Monday night with lows in the low 20s across the valley (upper teens in the Catskills)… Tuesday will see a cold start, before temperatures moderate into the low and mid 40s during the afternoon for highs.

That allows us to talk about Wednesday, which is really the only thing on everyone’s mind anyway.  We have another upper level low pressure diving into the central US, it will continue to roll eastward, into the Ohio Valley late on Tuesday.  At the same time, we’ll see a wave of low pressure develop along the front side of the upper level trough.  Where that coastal low pressure goes, will have a major impact on our weather for Wednesday…

As of Monday morning, we’ve got considerable disagreement on the track that the coastal low pressure will take.  There IS agreement on the development of this low pressure system, almost all data has it developing near the coast of VA and North Carolina.  The uncertainty is what happens next.

Track #1
The GFS and NAM models develop the coastal storm, and immediately have it hug the coast.  The storm tracks right along the coastline, and moves northward, before jumping northeast and heading toward Cape Cod.  This track is likely the result of the upper low pressure system off to our west influencing the track.  The rotation around the upper level low, likely pulls the coastal low pressure in toward the shore.  This also aids in the rapid development of the storm, and generates substantial lift.  If track #1 is correct, it would be a substantial storm for the Hudson Valley.

Track #2
The European and Canadian Models develop the low pressure, and immediately try to jump the storm out into the ocean, before gradually hooking it back toward the New England coastline.  This track would spare the Hudson Valley almost any real impacts.  We might see some light snow develop along the front edge of the trough, as the low pressure is forming… but then the substantial snow would be pulled out to sea, and off to our east… possibly impacting Long Island and NYC.

Which is right?
That’s the challenge we have ahead of us, is to figure out which track is the right one.  Right now, we have track #1 more likely, at about 65% chance to occur.  We really would like to see the European model come around to our idea, that would help boost our confidence a bit.  But the reason track #1 seems to make sense, is that the upper level low should influence the track of the coastal storm.

The upper level low pressure is deepening as it pushes eastward… in fact the GFS has the low closing off as it reaches the coast… a sign of a strong upper level low pressure.  As it deepens, the trough should begin to tilt negative, and with a negatively tilted trough, the storm should tuck in tightly along the coast… not push out to sea.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the track, and see if this plays out the way we think.

If everything comes together the way we think it might… this could be our weather map Wednesday afternoon…

Notice that the NAM model is picking up on the dramatic lift that may be possible in the Hudson Valley.  The purple shading is indicative of snowfall rates well over 1″ per hour.  If track #1 is correct, then we’re in for a very snowy Wednesday afternoon across the Hudson Valley.  Snowfall amounts would likely near or exceed 6 inches in most locations, with someone possibly reaching double digits in terms of snowfall amounts.

Winds?
There are obviously concerns about strong winds, with portions of the Hudson Valley still without power today.  As it looks right now, the sustained winds should be less than what we saw on Friday for certain.  We could still have a few gusts that pack a punch, up over 30mph… but the strength and frequency of the strong wind gusts should be noticeably less than what we saw on Friday.

Now, we want to be clear… people should take this storm seriously.  The point we are trying to make, is that there is a difference between the size and scope of this storm, and the size and scope of the previous storm.  It is worth mentioning however, that due to the fact that this will likely be a heavy wet snow, with the gusty winds that we do anticipate with a developing nor’easter… that additional power outages will be a concern.

But let’s nail down the track first… and then once we know whether this storm will come up the coast, then we can worry about the wind and the potential for power outages.  Have a great Monday afternoon, we’ll have more updates tonight.

Saturday Outlook : Blustery Winds Continue

On Saturday, we’ll begin to process what was truly a historic storm for the Hudson Valley on Friday.  If not so much in terms of impact (and there was a lot of impact)… then at least in terms of the meteorological nature of the storm.  We cannot recall a storm where it poured rain all day in southern Ulster county, while it thumped snow all day in much of Dutchess, Orange, Putnam and Rockland counties.

There will be numerous different statistics and graphics that we begin pulling together on Saturday, as the data all roll in.  So we’ll be pretty busy on Saturday as well.  We’ll try to get the snowfall totals to you first, and then we’ll worry about the other jaw dropping statistics… and there will be several.

Winds of Change

The big weather story over the next several days will be the winds.  Saturday we’ll begin to see clouds mix with sunshine, as our coastal bomb of a storm gradually drifts out to sea.  The winds wrapping around that system as it meanders away, will be quite strong.

Northeast winds 10 to 15mph, will gust over 30mph at times, as the storm continues to deepen off shore.  This could be a problem for those of us who saw upwards of 10 to 15 inches of wet snow on Friday.  If the winds continue to batter the trees and power lines that are coated with several inches of wet snow… at best, it will make the work of our local utility crews that much more difficult… and at worst, it could cause additional power outages.  Something to be aware of on Saturday… as the cleanup across the eastern half of the Hudson Valley continues.

That’s not to diminish what happened across the western half of the Hudson Valley, where parts of Orange county, Rockland County, Sullivan and Greene counties were plastered with wet snow.  But Ulster County (in general) is going to be one of the more phenomenal stories.  The bulk of the county saw less than an inch… with many places seeing 0.1″ or 0.0″ of snow.  We are still compiling the snowfall data, so ‘officially’ we don’t have the numbers… but what we’re seeing is effectively a giant snow hole right in the center of the Hudson Valley.

As a personal anecdote, it’s almost impossible for me to believe that parts of Dutchess county saw 12 to 15 inches of snow, and that Monroe (roughly 15 miles to my south) pulled in 12 inches.  All while I received a whopping 0.1″ of snow… yes I had a slushy coating late in the day on Friday, after many inches of rain had fallen.  Or that Alex, located roughly 20 to 30 miles to my northeast, also saw 0.1″ of snow… and that roughly 5 to 10 miles to his east, Rhinebeck had 6 inches of snow.  It’s truly wild stuff.

So we’ll continue to pull together the data on Saturday, and share it with you as soon as we can.  Bundle up, and be safe on Saturday… have a great day!

Wild Winter Storm Discussion : 2pm Update

A complex and diverse storm continues to hammer the Hudson Valley at this hour, with a wide range of weather conditions. 
Eastern half of Ulster/N. Orange/SE Sullivan:
The central part of the Hudson Valley is seeing light to moderate rain, mix with wet snow and sleet.  Temps are in the mid 30s, and winds are howling out of the north/northeast.  Some mixing of wet snow is occurring, but accumulations are negligible.  This storm continues to be a bust in this area, with mostly a windswept rain falling.
 
Remainder of Hudson Valley:
Dutchess, Columbia, Putnam, S. Orange, Rockland… you guys continue to get hammered, with moderate to heavy wet snow.  Viewer accumulations continue to come in generally on the order of 4 to 8 inches, but some local reports up to 10″ are coming in.  Unfortunately when the powerful NE wind gusting over 35 and 40mph is factored in, the weight of the heavy wet snow coating the trees & power lines are leading to power outages only increasing in number.  Road conditions vary greatly as well, with elevation playing a role as well.  As one of our First Responder viewers asked us to say, “If you don’t have to be out on the roads, stay home.”  Conditions in these areas will continue to vary greatly over short distances… with another 2 to 4 inches of wet snow possible on average.
 
Catskills: Delaware, Sullivan, Greene & NW Ulster:
Holy Moly… you guys are getting plastered.  Reports of 10 to 20 inches already having fallen, with another 6 to 10 inches being possible before it ends.  Widespread power outages are being reported, with blizzard conditions due to wind gusts over 35mph.  This is a major event in those areas, and travel is STRONGLY discouraged.  Don’t go out unless it’s an emergency, the travel conditions are very dangerous.
 
This storm continues to defy expectations across the entire region.  Parts of the area are seeing conditions that were forecasted, while other parts are only seeing wet snow mix in at this hour.  As the analysis will show once the storm is finished, there was no way to accurately predict all of the nuance this storm had to offer… but on the average, the forecast and discussion did a decent job preparing everyone for the potential snow and wind, as well as the potential for a busted forecast in parts of the area.  Hopefully everyone is remaining safe out there, and we greatly appreciate you tracking the storm along with us at HVW!