Friday Discussion: Upper Level Low Brings Burst of Snow

Our mid November storm has brought historic snowfall to the region already… and yet, we are eyeing even more snowfall impacting the region for the Friday AM commute!

The widespread 8 to 12 inch snowfall amounts being reported as of midnight Thursday night, are the highest widespread snowfall amounts on record… for a storm occurring on or before November 15th.  Sure… it can snow this time of year, but it doesn’t usually snow with such conviction.  Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour… for 3 hours… surpassing snowfall forecasts of 4 to 8 inches of snow… in just a few hours.  That’s what we mean, when we say ‘historic’.

But the upper level low will exit to our southeast on Friday morning, and generate some intense upward motion in the atmosphere.  This in turn causes the air to cool and condense… and suddenly we have heavily falling precipitation.  This will very likely change the sleet and freezing rain… back to all snow (and a heavy snow at that)… before ending.

Futurecast Radar: 10pm Thursday – 11am Friday

 

The line of snow that will rotate through the Hudson Valley between 6am and 9am on Friday, will fall at the rate of over 1 inch per hour.  Temperatures will be right near freezing…

These temperatures strongly suggest, that even though precipitation may have tapered off overnight… conditions have not improved much at all.  The lull in the action will allow road crews to catch up… but snow and ice will not melt, and conditions will be slick already… before an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow arrive…

So travel on Friday morning is certainly not looking favorable.  We’ll have to see how it unfolds… but a delay and cancellation filled Friday morning is likely in the cards.  The snow burst likely tapers off from west to east Friday morning between 8am and 11am… at which time, temperatures should climb above freezing… and conditions will gradually improve.

We will discuss later on Friday… why the storm exceeded our expectations in terms of snowfall accumulation.  For now, let’s focus on keeping people out of harms way for the AM commute.  Be safe, Hudson Valley!

Final Storm Forecast : Thursday 11/15 – Friday 11/16

Here we go, Hudson Valley… it’s coming…

Timing:
– 3pm to 6pm : Snow develops from south to north (falls heavy at times)
– 7pm to 11pm : Snow mixes with/changes to sleet from south to north
– 10pm to 6am : Light wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle
– 6am to 9am : Burst of heavy sleet & snow possible, then precip tapers off

Impact:
– Temps at or below freezing, snow will accumulate on all surfaces
– Snow rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible 5pm – 9pm
– Low visibility, snow covered roads, PM commute very slick
– Snow covered & Icy roads possible thru the night
– Potential snowy & icy Friday AM commute as well

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 5 to 10 inches (localized higher amounts)
– Mid & Upper HV (Zone 3,4,5,6 & 7) : 4 to 8 inches (locally up to 10″)
– Lower HV (Zone 8 & 9) : 3 to 6 inches (with minor icing on top)

 

We have customized a map using NWS WPC data, and manipulated the data to be in line with our snow forecast.  This map is in line with our HVW zone map, and presents the data in a different perspective for anyone who may prefer this.

Preliminary Snow Forecast : Thursday – Friday

The arctic cold has settled into the Hudson Valley, and now a coastal storm system will develop on Thursday, and bring our first winter weather event of the season.

Timing:
– 3pm to 6pm : Snow develops from south to north (falls heavy at times)
– 7pm to 11pm : Snow mixes with/changes to sleet from south to north
– 10pm to 6am : Light wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle
– 6am to 10am : Burst of heavier sleet & snow possible, then precip tapers off

Impact:
– Temps at or below freezing, snow will accumulate on all surfaces
– Snow rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible 5pm – 9pm
– Low visibility, snow covered roads, PM commute very slick
– Snow covered & Icy roads possible thru the night
– Potential snowy & icy Friday AM commute as well

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills (Zone 1 & 2) : 4 to 8 inches (localized higher amounts)
– Mid & Upper HV (Zone 3,4,5,6 & 7) : 3 to 6 inches
– Lower HV (Zone 8 & 9) : 2 to 4 inches (with minor icing on top)

Discussion:

The first storm of the season, and it is proving to be a challenging forecast right out of the gate.  Our coastal storm’s energy is coming from the Gulf of Mexico, and will redevelop off the coast of Virginia Thursday afternoon.  It will spread moisture north, pushing into the Hudson Valley between 3pm and 6pm from south to north…

Notice in this futurecast radar image, that the snow is moving into the Mid Hudson Valley as of 5pm.  The snow quickly becomes moderate to heavy at times, once it starts falling.  That means that the snow will begin to accumulate quickly, and roads will quickly become snow covered.  Rates of snow could exceed 1 inch per hour, and result in very low visibility.  This would cause for a treacherous evening commute in the middle of winter.  Factor in that this is the first snow event of the season… and travel will be very hazardous, if not dangerous in some areas.  It is worth factoring this in, while planning your PM commute on Thursday.

This futurecast map is the key to the forecast.  It suggests that even as of 9pm, the majority of the Hudson Valley is seeing moderate to heavy snow falling.  If this is correct, snowfall rates of 1 to 2 per hour will be possible.   We would see some areas see 5 or 6 inches of snow by 9 or 10pm, which will cause major travel headaches.

If this map is slightly incorrect, and the sleet mixes in earlier… snowfall amounts will be lower, but sleet will make things icy on top of the snow.  This has been one of the major challenges with the snowfall forecast.  The data has been rather conflicting regarding the timing of sleet mixing in.  So we will be fine tuning snowfall projections as we get closer to the event, as we hopefully get better precision on the transition to a wintry mix.

But the confidence is very high, that at some point, a transition to wintry mix will occur.  By midnight, the majority of the valley will be seeing a light wintry mix… as the heaviest precipitation should move north of the region by midnight.  A light wintry mix is expected through the night… making for icy conditions through the night.  Most locations will remain at or below freezing, so icy travel and icy walkways are expected through the night.  So just because it’s not snowing… and the wintry mix is light… conditions will not improve overnight.  Some locations well south of I-84, will warm up above freezing… and those locations could see travel conditions improve.

From here… the forecast gets even tricker.  We will monitor an upper level low pressure feature pass by to our south, early Friday morning.  When that happens, it will pull colder air into the region… and generate considerable upward motion.  This will very likely lead to a burst of moderate to heavy snow across the Hudson Valley on Friday morning.  This could cause enhanced headaches for the AM commute on Friday… since temperatures should still be near or below freezing.  We’ll focus more on this Thursday… as the event gets closer, and we see how the storm is unfolding.

We’ve got a VERY full plate for the next 36 to 48 hours.  The major key to the snowfall forecast, has to do with the temperature profile of the atmosphere… and how long the snow falls, before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.  There is a good chance we adjust snowfall forecasts on Thursday, as we get a better idea.  Don’t be shocked if we have to increase the snowfall forecast.  We will be walking with you the entire way.  Thank you so much for your support!

Mid Day Snow Discussion

We continue to monitor data and look at computer models, as we put together the preliminary forecast for Thursday. At this point, we’re going to wait for the next European model to come out (around 2pm), before posting the comprehensive preliminary forecast.
 
The short version is that nothing major has changed from previous discussions. Snow will develop Thursday afternoon from south to north. There are major keys to the forecast, that we are still trying to identify:
 
1. How much dry air will be ahead of the storm?
2. Does snow quickly mix with or change to sleet?
3. Do we get a burst of heavy snow Friday AM?
 
These 3 details may seem small, but they mean everything in terms of accumulations. You may have seen some WILD ranges of accumulation forecasts out there. That’s because how you answer the questions above, means the difference between 1″ of snow with lots of sleet and ice, and possibly 6 to 12 inches of snow.
The forecast currently on our website is what we’re holding with at the moment, but it is subject to change. We have 2 to 6 inches of snow projected (lower amounts south of I-84, higher amounts north of I-84). But some of the morning data has given us cause to think that we may have to adjust these numbers. So we’re going to wait for some more data before issuing the preliminary forecast. More updates shortly…

Incredible Cold Overshadowed

In the wake of soaking rainfall, where the Hudson Valley saw another 3/4 to 1 inch of rain… we’re watching temperatures begin to tumble behind an arctic cold front.  Strong NW winds will usher in the coldest air of the season to date…

Just how cold are these temperatures for this time of year?  Well… let’s just say it will feel more typical of mid January, rather than mid November.  A true shock to the system headed our way for Wednesday….

And when you factor in the NW winds gusting over 20mph at times on Wednesday, the wind chills across the region, will bring the core of winter to the Hudson Valley.

So make sure you bundle up before heading out the door on Wednesday.  Get the kids out the door with the winter jackets and hats, because the chill will get to the bone.

We know that everyone is REALLY interested in the snow potential for Thursday afternoon and evening.  We’ve been digging in, and have a comprehensive discussion coming.  But in the meantime, check our DETAILED 5 DAY FORECAST for Thursday.  Our first taste of winter is on the way… now we’re going to work on the details of Timing… impacts… and snowfall amounts.

Monday Night Rain

After a very cold early November day, we’re now watching closely as the rains will approach from the south tonight.

Futurecast Radar: 8pm Monday – 3pm Tuesday

The rains will begin around the region between 10pm and 1am for most of us (earlier to the south, later to the north).  The rain should be steady, but light to moderate until morning approaches.  As morning approaches on Tuesday, periods of moderate to at times heavy rain are possible… making for a very soggy commute Tuesday morning.  The rains should taper off by mid day Tuesday… with conditions improving for the Tuesday PM commute.

In terms of rainfall totals between Monday night and Tuesday… no changes to the projected amounts of around 1 inch on average.

Which will be a strain on some local creeks and streams, as the saturated grounds will not have much ability left to absorb the run off.  A very soggy Monday night and Tuesday awaits.

The Chill Sinks In… Rain Likely Monday Night

Under sunshine and decreased winds… we’re seeing Sunday afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 40s across the Hudson Valley.  That’s roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year, and serves as a reminder that the seasons are slowly beginning to change.

The chill will be with us into the start of the work week as well, as afternoon highs on Monday will climb into the mid and upper 40s.  Skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday, but clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon hours… hinting at the approaching storm system that will bring another bout of rain to the region.

Futurecast Radar : Monday 7pm – Tuesday 12pm

Based on the progression of the system, the start time for the rain is likely anywhere from 9pm to midnight, from south to north.  You can also see on this map, that there is a potential for wet snow and sleet at the onset across Sullivan County and the Catskills.  We’ll have to monitor the potential for a couple areas of a coating to an inch of slushy wet snow.  But for the majority of us, it’s more rainfall that’s expected.  How much rain?  Well… a general inch or so of rain can’t be ruled out…

We’ll be monitoring the situation, and provide updates as we get closer.  Thanks for the continued support… have a great start to your week!

Friday Outlook : Flash Flood Watch Tonight

…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT…
…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT…

* WHERE: East central New York, including the following areas, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Ulster, and Western Dutchess, Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester counties.

* From this evening through late tonight

* Rain, heavy at times will fall across the flood watch area
Friday evening through late Friday night. A total of 1 to 1.5
inches is expected with isolated amounts over 2 inches.

PROJECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT:

* This amount of rain combined with saturated soils from recent rainfall may be enough to cause flooding. The most likely areas will be urban and poor drainage areas and minor river flooding is possible as well. In addition, fallen leaves may clog storm drains causing additional flooding.
Instructions:
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Thursday Discussion : Cool Sunshine and Blue Skies

A fantastic start to our Thursday across the Hudson Valley, with lots of sunshine and blue skies.  Temps have started out a bit chilly, in the low 30s for many places.  But under sunshine and a light NW wind, we’ll see temperatures today climb up toward 50°… which is a few degrees below average for this time of year.  But if you’ve got outdoor plans on this autumn Thursday… you should be just fine, as long as you have a jacket.

As we look toward Friday, we’ve got another storm system approaching from the southwest.  Clouds will increase late tonight, and into Friday morning.  Scattered showers are likely to develop during the mid afternoon hours on Friday, with a steady, soaking rain Friday night.

Another 1.0″ of rain appears likely, as this storm system pushes though.  The further south you go… the better the chances of the higher rainfall amounts.

Then this weekend, the temperatures tumble into the mid 40s, with strong wind gusts.  That will make for a wintry feel this weekend, with wind chills in the 30s.  Get ready for some big changes in the coming days!

Wednesday Discussion : One Fine Day

The rains have finally ended, and we’ll see the Hudson Valley dry out for a couple days.  That’s extremely welcome news to almost all of us.  For Wednesday and Thursday, we anticipate partly to mostly sunny skies, with seasonably mild temperatures.  Highs on Wednesday could approach 60°, while highs on Thursday should be a few degrees cooler… in the low 50s.

Our next chance of rain arrives on Friday, as another storm system approaches from the west.  Another half inch, to inch and a half of rain are possible.  Timing the system, it appears that the rain begins late morning, and lasts into early evening.  So any Friday afternoon plans should begin to take rain into the equation.

Things then turn blustery and cold for the weekend.  Strong NW winds gusting over 20mph… combined with temperatures in the low 40s… to generate wind chills in the 30s across the region.  So a late fall, early winter preview heading our way for the coming weekend.  More details as we get closer!