Monday Discussion : Instability Continues

Our strong southeast flow has settled in, and left us with a rather tropical feel.  Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are combining with dew points above 70°.  This is leaving us with high humidity and instability.

Futurecast Radar : 2am to 11am Monday

You can see that there are no widespread disturbances to track across the Hudson Valley and northeast.  Instead, a persistent flow off the Atlantic Ocean will provide an abundance of moisture, and high humidity.  This instability will result in waves of scattered showers and downpours.  These scattered showers will be hard to predict in terms of timing and amount of rain.

On Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies, with periods of on and off rain showers and downpours.  Highs on Monday in the upper 70s to near 80°… but with high humidity, expect it to feel hotter and more humid.

We will see this pattern continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.  Timing the dry periods against the rainy periods, will be a tricky task.  We will try to do so in the 24 hour forecast and 5 day.  Please check there for our latest ideas.  Stay cool, and try to have a nice Monday!

Sunday Discussion : Unsettled Pattern Sets In

After the soaking rain from last night… we are now settling into the pattern that will be with us for the next several days.  What you see when you look outside, get used to it… this is going to be the story for the next several days.

For our Sunday and Monday, expect mainly cloudy skies with high levels of humidity.  We’ll see varying rates of rain showers over the next 24 to 36 hours.  At times, the rain will taper off entirely.  At other times, there will be periods of a steady light drizzle.  Sometimes, we’ll see a steady light rain fall.  While at other times, we’ll see heavy downpours.  These conditions will vary randomly throughout the next 2 days, with considerable unpredictability.

Temperatures will be fairly steady as well.  Generally, expect temperatures in the low to mid 70s.  But the high levels of humidity won’t allow for those 70s to feel comfortable.  We’ll have a rather muggy, sticky feel to the air… and any sunshine that breaks through will only serve to increase the humidity and heat.

These conditions will likely stick with us into Thursday or Friday, when the front finally pushes through from the northwest.  That will once again bring us lower humidity levels for next weekend.  But it’s going to be slow to get to those conditions.  The good news, is we will gradually erode any drought concerns from the region in the next 5 to 7 days.

So lets make the best of this change in weather pattern.  We hope everyone has a great end to the weekend, and a great start to the work week!

Saturday Discussion : Coastal Storm Rain and Wind

Saturday is our final beautiful weather day… before some major changes swing into the Hudson Valley.

The jet stream shows the strong upper level low pressure over the Great Lakes.  This is a feature more typical of the winter season, not the middle of summer.  With a strong upper level high pressure north of New England (indicated by the orange colors), the upper level low pressure will stall out over the Great Lakes, and that will translate into multiple days of unsettled weather for the Hudson Valley area.

The stormy weather begins Saturday night, as a coastal storm will develop near the Virginia coast on Saturday.  Because the jet stream buckles so far inland, the coastal storm will be forced inland… into Pennsylvania.

Notice on this simulation, how far west the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms are.  The Hudson Valley will see rain for sure… but earlier in the week there was discussion about 2 or 3 inches of rain for our area.  That now appears likely to occur in central PA, not the Hudson Valley.  Here’s a simulated radar for the overnight, and you can see this play out.

Futurecast Radar : 11am Saturday – 5am Sunday

The rain stays mainly to the SW of the Hudson Valley until well after sunset on Saturday.  A few showers push into the Hudson Valley before midnight, but the heavy showers and thundershowers appear likely to hold off until near or after midnight.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue to be scattered around the region through sunrise on Sunday as well… keeping us unsettled for much of the day.  Total rainfall amounts by midnight Sunday night, look to range between 0.5 and 1.5 inches across our area…

So while we are likely to get a good bit of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours… the very heavy, potentially flooding rains, should remain out of our area.  Regardless, we’ll continue to monitor the situation.

Powerful Winds

In addition to the rain potential, we have some concerns about strong winds… and some potentially damaging gusts (especially in the higher elevations)

With the center of low pressure moving so far inland, we’ll see some very strong winds moving well inland as well.  Sustained winds Saturday night will be 10 to 20mph, with gusts over 30mph at times.  Indications are that as you go higher in elevation, gusts could be as high as 50mph.  We’ll have to keep our eye on the threat of damaging wind gusts… as the combination of soaking rain and strong winds could result in some down trees, and maybe a few power outages.  We don’t think this is a widespread event in terms of power outages… but something to certainly be aware of.

So a busy next 48 hours for us at Hudson Valley Weather.  We’ll keep you informed with updates as we get into the storm tonight, and into Sunday morning.  It does appear that the steady rain tapers off during the morning on Sunday.  That should leave us with mostly cloudy skies, warm and humid conditions.  That in turn… will lead to an elevated threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  A scenario that will repeat over and over through the week… from Sunday, straight through Thursday or Friday.

Check back for updates as we get closer.  Thank you for continuing to support HVW.

Friday Discussion: One More Beautiful Day

Our gorgeous weather pattern will hold for one more day, before we begin to transition to a very unsettled and humid weather pattern over this weekend.

There’s not much to say about our recent weather, besides gorgeous.  Now, as we move into Saturday, we’ll watch a strong upper level system over the Great Lakes begin to generate a strong southerly flow into the Hudson Valley.  This strong flow will cause a coastal low pressure system to develop (much like a winter nor’easter).  This low pressure will need to be watched closely, because it’s track is critical to whether we see 1 to 2 inches of rain on Saturday night and Sunday… or if we will see lighter rainfall amounts. 

So that will keep us busy, determining just how wet our weekend will be.  Once the low pressure passes to our north… the Hudson Valley will remain unsettled and humid, with a strong SE flow.  The upper level low in the Great Lakes will take its time, and keep our pattern unsettled and stormy well into next week.  Anyone concerned about drought in the Hudson Valley… should begin to see those concerns washed away over the next 7 days.

For Friday… try to enjoy the beautiful weather!  It’s going to be a gorgeous afternoon!

Tuesday Discussion : Strong Storms with Much Needed Rain

The heat and humidity comes to a head on Tuesday, as the hot summer temperatures and very moist atmosphere clash with a strong cold front.  The result will be the development of showers and thunderstorms from mid day on… and some of those storms could become severe…

The day should start with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  The big question mark in terms of severe threat… is how much sunshine we see across the region during the morning.  The more sunshine we see… the warmer and more humid conditions will be… and the more fuel we will have for the afternoon thunderstorms to fire up.

So the clouds mixing with breaks of sun should last until roughly mid day… before we begin to see the T-Storms really build from north to south.

Futurecast Radar 12am – 6pm

You can see on the simulation, that the storms really begin to blossom after 12pm just north of the Hudson Valley, and quickly sink southward into the Hudson Valley between 12 and 3pm, from north to south.  Depending on how much atmospheric instability is generated… these storms could become severe in spots.

Most of us will see the potential for heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts… possibly even some small hail.  A few of us could see damaging wind gusts over 60mph, but as we showed in the first graphic, the odds are roughly 5% to 15% for most of us seeing severe wind gusts.  So while most of us should not see severe T-storms… many of us will see a threat of heavy rain downpours, T-storms, and gusty winds.  But since we can’t pinpoint who will see the severe threat… we all should remain on guard for the duration of the afternoon hours.

Conditions will gradually improve near and after sunset from north to south… and that will also include an end to the high humidity levels.  Expect much cooler, and less humid conditions by Tuesday night and Wednesday.  We’ll try to have updates during the storms on Tuesday, mostly on social media.  But we’ll also have our radar tools on the website and mobile app to help keep you ahead of the action.

Have a great Tuesday!

Monday Discussion : Heat & Humidity Persist

Some early morning patchy fog in places across the Hudson Valley this morning, as things begin to heat up once again today.

? Mix of Clouds & Sun
High around 90
Heat index in low 90s
Dew point near 70

A hot and humid day will kick off our work week, as the patchy fog burns off and the heat and humidity build. We can’t rule out a stray afternoon shower or t-storm, but they should be very few and far between.

We will see a cold front spread showers and thunderstorms into the region for Tuesday afternoon. So anyone with afternoon plans on Tuesday will want to expect periods of rain, with the potential for strong storms. Later tonight, we’ll try to take a closer look at the rain potential for Tuesday.

Otherwise, be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and have a great start to the work week!

Sunday Afternoon Radar Discussion : Localized Downpours Possible

The heat and humidity are building across the region on this Sunday afternoon.  As we have hazy sunshine mixed with clouds, we’re seeing a few rain shower and T-storm cells developing in spots.  With temperatures in the low to mid 80s… and dew points climbing toward 70°, it’s making for heat index (real feel) temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90°.  A familiar summer-like feel across the region.
Regional Radar: 2pm to 3:30pm
As you see on radar, we have a few localized storm cells drifting southward this afternoon.  Along with these cells, expect:
– rain, with locally heavy downpours. 
– thunder and lightning
– gusty winds
These cells are moving rather slow, so some areas could see prolonged downpours, that could lead to localized street flooding.  The threat for rain and thunderstorms will be with us through sunset, so be on guard for the threat for a rain delay to your plans.  Have a wonderful afternoon and evening, stay cool and stay dry!

Saturday Drought Discussion: July 14, 2018

We’ve had a lot of comments and concerns in the past couple weeks regarding the drought situation in the Hudson Valley.  It has been dry at times for sure, with plenty of hot, summer days.  The heat wave at the end of June and start of July, baked the region in a multi day stretch with no precipitation.  The result for many of us, is a feeling that things are much worse than they really are…

We added a focused closeup of the Hudson Valley, and as you can see… the SW half of the region is not in any drought condition, while the NE half of the region is “abnormally dry”.  This is indicative of the rather dry period we’ve seen in the Hudson Valley.  The last 10 to 14 days have been very dry, with little rainfall to speak of in many areas.  But if we look at the last 2 months, you can get a better picture of the situation…

You’ll notice, that most of the Hudson Valley has roughly 6 inches of rain in the past 2 months.  The northern Hudson Valley has seen between 4 and 6 inches… while the southern Hudson Valley has seen between 6 and 8 inches of rain.  That is certainly below average for much of the valley, roughly half of normal in spots… to 75% of normal in many other areas.

This is below average for sure, but it’s not critical by any stretch.  It’s the middle of summer, and with the heat we’ve seen… combined with the lack of moisture at the same time… has caused a lot of grass to turn rather crispy, and brown.  However, the bigger picture is not so bleak.  We’ve had concerns about wells drying up, or crops being damaged by the drought.  But in reality, it’s been dry… but we’re not in a drought situation yet.  If this pattern continues without relief… then things will surely change.  But for right now… growers shouldn’t have too much of a concern.

Have a great weekend!

Friday Discussion : Fine Summer Weather

Welcome to summer weather… where there isn’t much to say on a day to day basis.  Sunshine and hot… maybe a little humid.  If that starts to sound repetitive after a while, it does to us as well.  Hence, why you may see less frequent posts… or less interesting discussion.  It’s hard to get worked up about the same weather every day… but that’s good during the summer, we’re all supposed to be enjoying the nice weather.

So for our Friday, we’ve got sunshine and a few clouds, temps in the mid 80s… with very comfortable humidity levels.  Saturday things heat up a bit, and we’ll see a SW wind bring a little extra humidity.  Highs on Saturday around 90°, with dew points into the low 60s… will make things a bit sticky on Saturday.  Then we have to worry about a broken line of T-storms developing during the afternoon and evening…

Futurecast Radar 2pm Saturday – 2am Sunday

You’ll notice that the line of storms falls apart before reaching the Hudson Valley in this simulation.  But we still need to be vigilant about a shower or T-storm pushing into the Hudson Valley toward sunset on Saturday.

Thursday Afternoon Discussion : Sun and Fun

The tranquil summer weather pattern continues to hold over the Hudson Valley, and it’s giving us a beautiful Thursday afternoon across the region.

Poughkeepsie @ 4pm
Sunny ?? 84°
Dew point 45° = very low humidity

Similar conditions are being felt all across the region, as another fine summer day begins to head toward evening. We’ll have another great day shaping up for Friday, with similar conditions to what we’ve seen today across the Hudson Valley.

We’re watching a weak front that could bring some clouds and perhaps a shower or two to the region on Saturday and Saturday night. In the wake of that, we’ll see the heat build back toward 90°… and some slightly higher humidity levels for Sunday and on into the work week.

Have a wonderful afternoon and evening!