Tropical Storm Isaias Recap : 8/4/2020

The Hudson Valley does not experience tropical systems directly very often.  That’s a very good thing.  The topography and vegetation in our area are not conductive to sustained strong winds.  If a severe thunderstorm pushes through with 55mph+ wind gusts, that can cause power outages in localized areas.  So it comes as little surprise that with Tropical Storm Isaias left an ugly mark on our region over the past several days.

Reports of well over 300,000 power outages across the region.  Our friends at Central Hudson alone had nearly 115,000 outages… and other suppliers reported over 213,000 outages.  Many of these over 300,000 have been restored.  However, some may not have power restored until after the coming weekend.  That’s the kind of damage we saw in the especially hard hit areas of Orange, Southern Dutchess, Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester counties.

So looking back at the data so far, let’s start with the rainfall amounts, and those amounts were quite substantial…

This is a combination of rainfall map and rainfall reports from the National Weather Service.  The totals may be slightly difficult to see, but you can see that the heaviest rainfall amounts were focused in the western HV and Catskills.  This is due to the center of Isaias taking a track roughly from Sullivan County, through western Ulster County, and up into Greene County.  The heaviest rains were on the western half of the storm, and you can see how that played out in reality.  Newburgh only saw 1.81″ of rain on the eastern side of Orange county… while in the western edge of Orange county, Port Jervis saw roughly 4 inches of rain.  Flooding concerns were focused mainly in the Catskills, where some areas saw upwards of 5 or 6 inches of rain in Greene and western Ulster counties.

Rough Winds

When we talk about wind gusts… that’s where the bulk of the damage was generated.  We said this storm would have 2 different sides, the side with torrential rains… and the side with potentially damaging wind gusts.  So we just said the heaviest rains were in the Catskills… so that means the worst winds must have been in the SE Hudson Valley.  This wind gust map shows the storm over the course of roughly 6 hours, in 15 minute increments.

Wind Gusts from 12pm to 5:30pm

This is NY state, and it shows wind gusts in MPH.  The Hudson Valley is in the lower right quadrant, and you can see where the strongest wind gusts were focused.  Here’s a rough scale of the wind gusts on this map:
– Blue : less than 34mph
– Greene : 35mph to 46mph
– Orange : 47mph to 58mph
– Red : 59mph to 68mph
– Gray : 68mph or higher

The worst gusts start out in Orange, Rockland, Westchester county around 1pm… and push northward into Dutchess by 2pm.  The worst winds are roughly between 2pm and 3:30pm in Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties.  The closer to the NY/CT border you go, the worse the winds.  Here are the reported gusts from the NWS:

A peak gust of 61mph at Bannerman Island… but multiple reports of wind gusts above 50mph can be found.  The problem is not just the intensity of the peak wind gust… but the fact that gusts between 40mph and 60mph continued for roughly 2 hours in any location.  A strong to severe summer time thunderstorm has gusts of that magnitude for 10 or 15 minutes… the gusts from Isaias lasted nearly 2 hours, and the result was that many of the trees and power lines in the region could not handle the power of the winds.  The end result was what we saw… over 300,000 power outages in our region.

Hopefully in the coming days, we can get the damage cleaned up, and start getting power restored to all of our residents.  For now, please think of your fellow Hudson Valley resident, and lend a helping hand if you can.  We’re tough, Hudson Valley!  We wish you all a safe and healthy remainder of the week.

Storm Recap : Monday Wet Snow Event

On the back end of a lackluster winter, we weren’t going to do a full recap of the underwhelming winter storm from Monday, March 23rd.  However, after reviewing some comments…

… we decided to do a quick recap.  First is our final forecast, followed by the actual storm results…

 

In short… the forecast played out rather close to expected.  The Catskills saw slightly less than expected, with totals much closer to the 5 or 6 inch amounts… than the 10 inch side of the 5 to 10 inch forecast.  The 2 to 6 inch forecast area also saw totals on the lower end… much closer to 2 or 3 inches than the higher end of the range.

But hands down, the most criticized part of the forecast was the coating to 4 inch range for the Hudson Valley.  Well, we overlayed that forecast range on the Snow History map.  Zones 3,7 and 8 are boxed in black.  The forecast there was for a coating to 4 inches.  Reviewing totals in that area… we have 1″ in Hamptonburgh, 1.1″ in Poughkeepsie, 2.3″ in Red Hook, 3.5″ in Rosendale.  If you look at the map and not the totals… you can see the pockets of higher snowfall in the higher elevations of Orange County, Putnam County and Dutchess County.  Snowfall amounts were directly correlated to elevation, and widely ranging.

We thank you for the continued support, and truly love doing what we do.  Sharing in the community is an awesome privilege, and makes everything worth while.  We don’t mind if people disagree with our forecast.  Often times a viewer will articulate that they think the setup will unfold differently, and the result will be different.  It’s all about how you express your opinion.  That said, we won’t hesitate to tell trolls where it’s at, when they post comments like these.  lol.

Hope everyone stays safe and healthy!

Winter Storm Recap – 12/1/2019 – 12/3/2019

We definitely kicked off the 19/20 winter season with a bang.  An extremely complex winter storm impacted the Hudson Valley over nearly a 36 hour period in many places, and when all the snow flakes settled, we saw anywhere from 2 or 3 inches in parts of the lower HV… to over 2 feet of snow in the Catskills.  Here are a series of maps we shared on Facebook earlier, followed by a short discussion.  We’ll start with our forecast and compare it to what actually occurred, and snow totals from the NWS.

A fascinating range of snowfall amounts were observed around the region.  From 2 inches in Nyack… to 25 inches in East Jewett.  When dealing with a long duration event, especially one where at least 50% of the snow in most areas came in hours 30 to 36 of the event… a lot of people gave up on this storm, calling it a bust.  We tried to highlight throughout the forecasting of this event, that much of it would be on the back end of the system… and that surprises would be common.

When all was said and done, we were pretty close with our forecast.  The areas we did worst (and we’re nit picking), were really in the northern and eastern HV.  In parts of SE Dutchess county… we were on the low end of our range, with a lot of 7″ amounts in the 6 to 12 range.  And then in Putnam county, our 4 to 9 inch range saw a lot of 4 and 5 inch amounts.  The reason being sleet was the dominant precipitation type on Sunday, and the snow was late to fill in over these areas Monday night.  But we got where we need to be.  Then the upper HV… we just didn’t go high enough in some areas.  Upper zone 3 and 4, were in the 6 to 12… but we saw a lot of 12 t0 18 inch totals in the northern most areas.  We had tried to indicate that some 12+ were possible in those regions… but they overachieved, due to the first wave being mainly snow for many… and piling up 5 to 10 inches on Sunday alone, then the snow just never stopped in some areas, as the storm pivoted on Monday.  Albany saw this storm become a top 10 event!

But for most areas… this complex system was forecasted very well.  A nice way to kick off the winter season.  Here are some final maps from the different departments of the NWS.  Thank you for all your support of HVW.  It means the world to us!  Have a great weekend!!

 

 

Winter Recap : 2018-2019 Winter in Review

As we begin to look at the coming 2019-2020 winter, and speculate what awaits, lets take a look back at last winter… to see what actually occurred, as well as what we speculated would happen.

First, let’s start with our 18-19 Winter Outlook temperature projection:

We had projected below average temperatures in the SE half of the country, and above average temperatures in the NW half of the US.  So lets take a look and see what actually happened…

Well… that’s kind of the opposite.  Warm where it was supposed to be cold, and cold where we expected to see warmth.  The winter actually started out as expected, with October, November and December, all looking the way we expected.  Then things went off the rails in January, and we never got back to what was expected.  So lets try and figure out where the outlook went wrong.

First, lets review what our sea surface conditions were projected to be in our winter outlook…

We had expected a weak El nino (A) and warmer water right along the US coast, with cooler water expected back toward Hawaii.  Now lets see what actually occurred…

The area near (A) turned out right, with a weak El Nino.  But the conditions near area (B) the Northeast Pacific Ocean, is where things didn’t go as planned.  The differences may not appear dramatic, but they were enough to result in almost the inverse of the winter we expected.  We circled 2 areas in the Pacific.  The blue circle shows well above average temperatures in the ocean, but if you look at the projection, waters were expected to be cooler than average in that area.  Looking to the brown circle, the sea surface was near to slightly below average… which is close to what the outlook had projected.  But it’s the combination of the two circles that we think caused the outlook to bust.

Having the warmer pool of water (blue circle) off to the west of the cooler water (brown circle), while subtle, is the opposite of what we had projected.  Here was the upper air pattern (jet stream) we had projected for last winter…

Here’s the ACTUAL upper air (jet stream) pattern that occurred last winter…

The pattern is almost opposite of what we projected… and our contention is that the warmer water NW of Hawaii and the cooler water to the east are the culprit.  The warmer water influences a sustained ridge of high pressure, which is what we got over Hawaii, instead of the western US.  The cooler water east of Hawaii favored a dip in the jet stream and a persistent trough out west.  All of that leads to a reflexive ridge in the eastern US, leaving us milder than average.  This is why we believe the pattern of the oceans is so important, because it’s not just the temperatures themselves… it’s how different regions relate to the surrounding waters.  But ultimately… seasonal forecasting is an imperfect science.

Could We Have Done Better?

Of course we could have… because the outlook was nearly inverse of the result.  But it’s important to remember, the winter outlook is built on assumptions made by computer models.  When we create the outlook, we know what the current SST profile looks like, but we utilize computer data to estimate what the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will look like in the coming winter.  Most times, it’s close, or similar to what the current conditions are.  However, if the actual SSTs end up being drastically different than the projected SSTs from the Winter Outlook… odds are, the outlook will be a bust.

So when asking if we could do better, the question really is, did the data give us clues that we might have missed?  The answer to this question… is yes.

Remember, this is what the actual SSTs looked like.  Notice the areas circled… lets compare the result, to the 2 computer models used…

This is actually quite interesting.  Going back and reviewing this… we were rather shocked to see the exact pattern that resulted last winter, in each of the model data.  Both the CFSv2 and JAMSTEC have the cooler waters to the east of the warmer waters in this key part of the world.  This pattern would favor the dip in the jet out west, and the reflexive ridge over the southeast.  It gives us pause as to how we did not give this more credence in the winter outlook last year.  Was it a blind spot, or did we believe the cooler water east of Hawaii was too small and insignificant to make a difference?  We’re not sure… but it’s very interesting for sure.  Something we’ll be alert to when finalizing this year’s outlook, and beyond.

But in closing… we love putting together the winter outlook each year.  It’s a complex look at multiple factors that will hopefully give us a preview of what the coming winter will hold.  Clearly, as we always try to reiterate, it’s nearly 50% forecast, 50% entertainment… just because of the combination of forecasting 3 to 6 months into the future, and relying heavily on computer data to do it.  But with that said, we’re always trying to fine tune our methods and learn from our mistakes.  If we can eliminate as many blind spots as possible, we can give the most accurate outlook possible.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed this review of last winter’s outlook, as we prepare for the release of the 19-20 winter outlook.   Thank you for all your support!

 

Monday Discussion : Spring in Our Sights & Snow Recap

Our weak snow to sleet and rain event from Sunday, served as a late season reminder that winter still has it’s grip on the northeast and Hudson Valley.  We projected a widespread coating to 2 inches in the valley, with perhaps up to 2 to 5 inches in the Catskills.  What actually happened, was pretty close to that…

We didn’t put out a snowmap, because of the weakness and insignificance of the overall storm.  But pretty much everyone from I-84 on south saw less than an inch, before melting began.  The eastern Catskills did the best, with widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts… and some 4″ amounts in the highest elevations.

But now, as we move into the work week… the sun has returned, and temperatures are climbing well into the 40s.  This should melt the remaining snowpack in most areas.  We’ll see a sharp NW wind usher in colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday… before a SURGE of warmth floods northward by the week’s end.  Highs in the 50s and near 60° are likely by the end of the week.  A sign that spring is beginning to strengthen it’s grip.

We will likely see 1 more blast of winter weather between March 17th and March 25th… where we could see a threat of one final winter storm.  Once we get through that… it appears that springtime weather will begin to settle in, and winter… may finally be beaten.

More updates through the week, but for now… this week’s weather looks quiet and chilly, through mid week.  Have a great start to the week!

Friday Discussion: Tuesday Storm Recap

The winter of 2018-2019 has been consistent.  Storm after storm sees snow develop around the region, with a low pressure that cuts inland to our west.  That sends warm air surging northeastward, over the cold air at the surface.  The end result, is snow to sleet to freezing rain… and possibly even rain.  Tuesday was no different, and much of the Hudson Valley looks like a mini-glacier, because of the 2 to 4 inches of glazed ice covering everything.

So lets press the “rewind” button, and look at how the forecast performed.  As usual, we’ll start with the Final Forecast, the Storm History Map, and the NWS snow totals.

As it turned out, our preliminary forecast was even better than our final forecast.  We increased the snowfall ranges by an inch or two on Monday night, because some of the data we were seeing was suggesting the warm wedge of air would be delayed.  However, that thin wedge of warmth would not be delayed or denied, and the changeover to sleet occurred right in the projected timeframe.

The result was widespread snowfall reports of 2 to 5 inches all around the Hudson Valley.  That snowfall was followed by moderate accumulations of sleet, leaving many with 4 or 5 inches of sleet and snow to clear by Wednesday morning.  If you compare the forecast to what the result was… only the Catskills were possibly a hair underdone.  With many reports in the 4 to 7 inch range… the preliminary forecast would have been perfect for the Catskills.  That said… many reports of 5 or 6 inches in the Catskills still falls within the 5 to 9 inch range.

Also, we received many concerned questions and comments leading up to the storm, because of other forecasts that were significantly more than what we were projecting.  For instance, the National Weather Service had Orange county in a 5 to 7 inch range, Dutchess county in a 6 to 8 inch range, and Ulster county in a 5 to 8 inch range.  Our forecast for all 3 areas was 2 to 6 inches, and was originally 2 to 5 inches.  The end result for this entire area ended up being 2 to 5 inches in general, before a rapid transition to sleet.

It just highlights why we try not to focus on any other forecast leading up to a storm.  To say that the NWS and Weather Channel projections didn’t influence our thinking in the final forecast, wouldn’t be totally honest.  When you make a prediction, and everyone else has a prediction for nearly twice what you’re projecting… it requires a bit of confidence to hold your ground and not be influenced.  However, at the end of the day… the totality of our forecast (impacts, timing and accumulations)… was something we are very happy with an proud of.  We hope that you found the forecast to be helpful in preparing you for what to expect.  Our #1 goal is to keep you a step ahead of the storm… and our forecast on this event did that.

Thank you for all your continued support.  It’s what keeps us going and motivated.  Have a great day!

Saturday Discussion : Finally Moderating & Tuesday Snow Recap

The arctic cold will finally begin to exit the region on Saturday, providing relief after several days of bitter cold air.  Just how cold it was where you were, depends on your exact location.  Poughkeepsie only fell to a low of roughly -2° Friday morning… and only around +1° on Thursday morning.  However… in Pine Bush, about 30 miles west… the Friday morning low was -16°… and Thursday morning was -9°!  That would be some near record breaking cold if it occurred in Poughkeepsie.  So it was bitterly cold for certain around the region the last few days.

But as Saturday unfolds, we’ll shift the wind out of the SW and temperatures will steadily climb toward the freezing mark.  By mid afternoon, most of the valley should rise into the mid 30s.  That will feel like 50° for many of us, after the bitter cold of recent days.  The warmth will continue into the next several days… into the early work week.  The January thaw is running a few days late… but will get here just in time for the start of February.

Snowfall Recap – Tuesday Arctic Front

A bit of an unusual setup, as an arctic front saw a low pressure develop along it, and snow broke out across the Hudson Valley.  Some warm air invaded the lower Hudson Valley, changing Westchester and Rockland counties over to rain.  Where this didn’t happen… where the cold held it’s ground… snowfall totals were quite significant.  So lets take a look at NWS snowfall totals, the snow history map, and our final snowfall forecast:

The Catskills performed very well, with widespread 4 to 10 inches… even some localized amounts upward of 12″.  The 4 to 8 inches, locally 10″ that was forecasted… saw some overachievers for sure, but the region overall was well forecasted.  The lower Hudson Valley was projected to see a coating to 3 inches, because of the warm nose of air that would invade from the southeast.  The full extent of which, was uncertain… in fact, the reason zone 3 and 4 were in the 2 to 6 inch range, was because the surge of warm air was expected to cause the snow to mix with rain all the way north of Poughkeepsie.  In reality, it made it up to I-84 east of the Hudson River… and knocked down snow totals to down to a slushy inch or two, on the back end of some rain.

The really challenging portion of the forecast, was the Mid Hudson Valley.  The 2 to 6 inch range ended up seeing widespread 3 to 8 inch totals, even some localized totals near 10″.  The reason for that, is that the cold air really held on west of the Hudson River.  Those areas saw snow pile up, at a colder snow ratio than expected.  So instead of a wet snow accumulating to a heavy and wet 3 inches of snow… it was a fluffy 6 or 7 inches of powder.

In general, the forecast was decent, considering the complex setup of this arctic front.  The timing and impact was portrayed fairly, so that people were generally prepared for the event.  Some of us overachieved, but that is expected in complex storm systems, where surprises will always be found.  Hopefully you were safe, and enjoyed the snow where possible.  Thank you for all the continued support… we really appreciate all the kind words.

Tuesday Discussion : Bitter Cold and Snow Recap

The bitter cold has set in over the last 2 days, and since Sunday afternoon, it’s felt more like Alaska than the Hudson Valley.  Lows Monday morning ranged between -5° to +5° across the region, and similar temperatures are likely as we wake up on Tuesday… maybe a few degrees warmer.  But after our bitter 36 hour blast of artic air, things will begin to slowly improve on Tuesday.  Highs will climb about 10 degrees warmer, which sounds pretty good… until you realize the high on Tuesday in Poughkeepsie was about 10°.  So highs in the low 20s are likely.

Things get even warmer on Wednesday, as another storm system approaches.  A frontal system will spread rain showers into the region… yes RAIN.  Temps will top out around 40° on Wednesday, so anything that falls, will do so in the form of rain.  The showers are likely light by late afternoon, but the rain becomes steadier and heavier overnight into Thursday morning.

A pretty difficult pill to swallow for winter weather lovers, as we were robbed of snow by sleet and freezing rain in our last storm on Sunday.  Then hit with a bitter arctic blast for Monday… only to rain again on Wednesday.  But the long range pattern is changing.  What we’re seeing right now, is the weather pattern and jet stream trying to settle into a colder pattern.  These are warm waves of resistance, that are the result of waves in the jet stream.  Persistent cold temps are on the way… and with them, will come chances for snow.  Being patient is difficult for snow lovers… trust us, we feel you.

Storm Recap – Saturday/Sunday Winter Storm

Finally, here are the recap stats from the last winter storm.  We’ll share 4 images with you.  We’ll share the Snow History Map, the reported totals, our Final Adjusted forecast (issued 9 hours before storm), and our Final Forecast (issued 18 hours before storm).  Our Adjusted Final Forecast turned out decent… once we finally realized that the storm would track considerably further north than the mid-range data suggested.  Our persistent conversation about how difficult the transition line was to forecast, and significant impact on snow totals, hopefully had everyone properly prepared… even if you were depressed about ice instead of snow.

Winter Storm Recap : Nor’easter Thu 11/15 – Fri 11/16

Wow… what a start to the 18-19 winter season!  Our first winter storm system slammed the Hudson Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, and lingered into Friday morning.  The impacts across the region were very significant, causing some parts of the area to be crippled in terms of the Thursday PM commute.  So we’re going to go through this storm in detail, and discuss how our 1st storm of the season caused so much distress on the Hudson Valley.

To begin, lets compare the forecast against what happened.  Below are:
1.  HVW Final Snowfall forecast
2.  The Snow History map… a visual representation of what actually occurred
3.  The Final Snow Reports… from the National Weather Service

The primary criticism that was echoed from the general population across not only the Hudson Valley, but the greater Tri-state area, including NYC… was that nobody was forecasting this much snow, and that “we were completely unprepared”.   There was a widespread feeling about being caught off guard.

So how about our snow totals, where did they stand?  If we break down our forecast into the 3 different forecast ranges [5″-10″, 4″-8″ & 3″-6″], and compare to what actually occurred, how did it compare?  To do this, we try to quantify how much of the area fell within the forecast, and how many areas were outside the forecast range.  Then we will assess the result of our forecast accounting for only the snow totals (not addressing timing or impact).

  • Catskills (zone 1&2): Forecast 5″ to 10″ ….. Western Greene, Delaware & Sullivan County were generally within this range, with lots of 5″ to 8″.  Western Ulster County was on the high end, even exceeding a bit… with West Shokan with 13.0″ and Phoenicia at 11.5″.  Result: Very Good (9/10)
  • Mid & Upper Hudson Valley (zones 3-7): Forecast 4″ to 8″….. Columbia & E. Greene County were within range.  Much of Ulster, Dutchess, & Orange counties over achieved.  Almost every report from those 3 counties fell within a range of 8″ to 12″ instead.  Result: Decent (6/10)
  • Lower Hudson Valley (zones 8&9): Forecast 3″ to 6″…. Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland counties generally saw 5″ to 8″ on average.  There was some overlap, but a lot of 6 and 7 inch totals were common.  Result: Good (7.5/10)

So after looking at the details… the area that saw the greatest difference between the forecast and the result, was the Mid Hudson Valley.  We expected widespread 4 to 8 inches in that area… but saw widespread 8 to 12 inches instead.  A lot has been made of this… probably more than would be made if it was the middle of winter.  Because this was the first storm of the year, and because of the impact on the PM commute, there has been extra frustration around forecasts on this storm.

So why were the totals higher than our forecast?  There were two major reasons, in all actuality… and they’re both related to the same root cause.  Quite simply… it was colder than the computer models projected.  It’s just that simple, and it played out in 2 ways.

  1. Snow ratios were higher than expected.  Snow ratio means how much snow falls, for every inch of liquid precipitation.  The standard average is 10 inches of snow, for every 1 inch of liquid… or a 10 to 1 ratio.  This time of year, because it’s generally milder than mid winter… it’s common to see 8 to 1 ratios… which generates a heavy, wet snow.  But this storm was so cold during the commute… the snow was fluffy and light, which made for 12 to 1, or even 15 to 1 ratios.  So the snow piled up even faster than what we projected in some areas.
  2. More snow fell… and less sleet and freezing rain, than expected.  Also a product of the colder atmosphere.  The total amount of moisture we saw was actually what was projected.  The problem, was the composition of that moisture.  Most locations saw all snow, until the precipitation tapered off between 9pm and midnight (80%+ of storm was snow).  This is different than what the models suggested…

The computer models projected the wintry mix to kick in a little earlier (roughly 65-70% of the storm being snow), which would have kept snow totals a couple inches lower, with a bit more sleet and ice on top of the snow.

Final Forecast Verdict

In total, the forecast was really quite good.  The specific snow amounts may have been 2 to 4 inches higher than forecast in the Mid Hudson Valley… but the impacts we highlighted in the forecast were precisely accurate.  In EVERY text discussion, Facebook Live stream, and radio broadcast discussion we did… we highlighted just how horrible the commute would become.  We spotlighted the trifecta of factors…
1.  First snow of the season
2.  Just in time for PM commute
3.  Intense snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour

We explained that the very cold conditions would lead to instant accumulations on all surfaces… something that is very abnormal for mid-November.  We explained that the timing could not be worse.  Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, starting between 3pm and 5pm, would lead to conditions being fine one moment… and being extremely treacherous 30 minutes later.  Then factor in that it’s the 1st storm of the season… and it was a recipe for disaster.

If this sounds defensive, it’s not meant to… but it’s meant to be an explainer.  There has been a lot of finger pointing by people in charge, especially in the NYC/NJ area.  The conditions in and around NYC were exceptionally horrible, with major roads at a standstill for hours.  Even locally, reports of 30 minute commutes taking between 2 and 3 hours to travel, had residents furious.  Blame was being placed on local municipalities for not doing an adequate job, for not keeping the roads passable.  That there is no excuse in the northeast for roads becoming parking lots… and people being stranded for hours on the roadways.

The unpopular fact of the matter is… this is what happens when it snows at 1 to 3 inches per hour, for 3 to 4 hours.  Even if road crews had every truck on the road working as efficiently as possible… it is impossible to keep up with those snowfall rates.  This is why we explained repeatedly how truly horrendous the PM commute would be, and to get to your destination before it started.  There were far too many people on the roads, for the type of weather that was occurring.

Hopefully this event will be used as a teaching moment.  Pointing fingers and shirking responsibility won’t help make sure it doesn’t happen again in the future.  We’ll work extra hard to make sure that we get the details as precise as possible, to provide the best information for planning, and keeping people safe.  We’re not always going to get every detail correct, but we can promise you that the difference between 6″ and 10″ was not what caused the problems we saw around the Tri-State.  Thanks for reading… and thanks for all your continued support!

Weekend Roundup : Quiet End to the Weekend

A wild start to the month of November, as we saw a wind blown rain storm push through the Hudson Valley and into the northeast over the last 36 hours.  Here’s the map of preliminary rainfall amounts since Thursday morning, as well as the Poughkeepsie weather almanac for Saturday…

The Hudson Valley is off to a very warm start, over 10 degrees above average for the first few days.  Rainfall amounts are also flooding in across the region.  The average for the month is roughly 3.5 inches of rain… and many areas saw over half of that in the past 36 hours.  With more rain expected in the coming week… we are looking at the likelihood of a wetter than average November.  This continues the 2018 pattern… which saw a brief break in the soaking rainfall during October, where we were actually an inch below average in Poughkeepsie at 3.4″ of rain (average = 4.47″).

So as we look to the end of the weekend… a much more tranquil day on Sunday.  Winds will die down, and sunshine will be the dominant weather story.  Mostly sunny skies with temps in the low 50s should do it.  Making for a fine autumn day.  We’ll have to enjoy that, because some wet weather has its eye on the region for Monday night into Tuesday.  So start factoring that into your plans.  Full details are available on the 5 day forecast.

Thanks for your continued support of HVW!